{
  "alt": "Dot chart of the ratio of a pooled WONDER death rate to the panel's rate, with one row for each size of county and a line at one. In the first view, suicide, the dot for counties under {fact:sz_c1} residents lies left of the line, the dot for counties of {fact:sz_c1} to {fact:sz_c2} residents lies left of it with an interval that reaches the line, the dot for counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents lies right of it, and the dots for larger counties sit on or near it. The overdose view has a dot near zero for the smallest counties and dots right of the line for the next five sizes.",
  "caption": "A dot at one means the pooled rate matches the panel. The pooled suicide rate is below the panel's in counties under {fact:sz_c1} residents, above it in counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents, and near it from {fact:nat_thr} residents. At {fact:sz_c1} to {fact:sz_c2} residents the suicide ratio is {fact:nv_su_1}, with an interval that reaches one. For overdose, whose rate is higher than suicide in counties of that size, the ratio is above one at {fact:sz_c1} to {fact:sz_c2} residents ({fact:nv_od_1}), and for counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents the rate pooled over counties published every year is {fact:cv_od_2} times the panel's. Each dot has a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties. The buttons switch the kind of death.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 0.419,
      "conf_low": 0,
      "estimate": 0.182,
      "n_units": 406,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "Under 10,000"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 41,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "Under 10,000"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.073,
      "conf_low": 0.496,
      "estimate": 0.781,
      "n_units": 406,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "10,000 to 24,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.552,
      "conf_low": 1.472,
      "estimate": 1.51,
      "n_units": 484,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "25,000 to 49,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.76,
      "conf_low": 1.39,
      "estimate": 1.559,
      "n_units": 12,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "25,000 to 49,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.098,
      "conf_low": 1.073,
      "estimate": 1.085,
      "n_units": 379,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "50,000 to 99,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.176,
      "conf_low": 1.11,
      "estimate": 1.142,
      "n_units": 145,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "50,000 to 99,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.006,
      "conf_low": 1.003,
      "estimate": 1.004,
      "n_units": 325,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "100,000 to 249,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.022,
      "conf_low": 1.008,
      "estimate": 1.014,
      "n_units": 304,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "100,000 to 249,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.002,
      "conf_low": 1.001,
      "estimate": 1.001,
      "n_units": 273,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "250,000 or more"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.002,
      "conf_low": 1.001,
      "estimate": 1.001,
      "n_units": 273,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "250,000 or more"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 0.13,
      "conf_low": 0,
      "estimate": 0.051,
      "n_units": 454,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "Under 10,000"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 128,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "Under 10,000"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.769,
      "conf_low": 1.454,
      "estimate": 1.625,
      "n_units": 673,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "10,000 to 24,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 4.43,
      "conf_low": 2.816,
      "estimate": 3.626,
      "n_units": 11,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "10,000 to 24,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.68,
      "conf_low": 1.579,
      "estimate": 1.628,
      "n_units": 602,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "25,000 to 49,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 2.285,
      "conf_low": 1.919,
      "estimate": 2.088,
      "n_units": 66,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "25,000 to 49,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.203,
      "conf_low": 1.156,
      "estimate": 1.178,
      "n_units": 387,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "50,000 to 99,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.357,
      "conf_low": 1.258,
      "estimate": 1.305,
      "n_units": 227,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "50,000 to 99,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.08,
      "conf_low": 1.064,
      "estimate": 1.071,
      "n_units": 325,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "100,000 to 249,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.104,
      "conf_low": 1.075,
      "estimate": 1.09,
      "n_units": 306,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "100,000 to 249,999"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.055,
      "conf_low": 1.048,
      "estimate": 1.051,
      "n_units": 273,
      "series": "Pooled over published county-years",
      "size": "250,000 or more"
    },
    {
      "cause": "Drug overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.055,
      "conf_low": 1.048,
      "estimate": 1.051,
      "n_units": 273,
      "series": "Pooled over counties published every year",
      "size": "250,000 or more"
    }
  ],
  "id": "naive_vs_panel",
  "notes": [
    "The panel is a model, so these ratios compare WONDER's rule with a modeled rate and not with the true rate. The panel's rates for small counties borrow from neighboring counties. WONDER counts and panel rates both cover 2019 to 2023. In counties of {fact:sz_c3} to {fact:nat_thr} residents the ratios are {fact:nv_su_3} for suicide and {fact:nv_od_3} for overdose, and in counties of {fact:nat_thr} to {fact:lbd_thr} residents {fact:nv_su_4} and {fact:nv_od_4}.",
    "Counties are all counties with a stable panel rate in every year 2019 to 2023, other than Connecticut's. A county that WONDER never publishes adds nothing to the pooled WONDER rate and stays in the panel rate. Restricting both sides to counties with a published county-year, the ratios for counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents are {fact:ns_su_2} for suicide and {fact:ns_od_2} for overdose. A series is plotted for a size of county only when it has at least {fact:min_group} counties; where every complete county has a rate of zero, the ratio is zero and has no interval.",
    "Overdose in the panel is unintentional or undetermined-intent drug overdose and in WONDER drug poisoning of any intent, so the levels differ by definition. In counties of {fact:lbd_thr} or more residents, where every count is published, the overdose ratio is {fact:nv_od_5}, which measures that difference."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER underlying cause of death, county files, 2019-2023, and CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence county file, 2019-2023; crude rates, modeled estimates, population-weighted",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Pooled over counties published every year": "accent",
      "Pooled over published county-years": "highlight"
    },
    "group": "series",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": true,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "reference": 1,
    "referenceLabel": "Same as the panel",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      2.2
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2
    },
    "xLabel": "Pooled WONDER rate relative to the panel's rate (1 = same)",
    "y": "size"
  },
  "subtitle": "Death rate pooled over the county-years CDC WONDER publishes, 2019 to 2023, divided by the CDC panel's population-weighted modeled rate for 2019 to 2023 in all counties of each size with a stable panel rate, suicide and drug overdose",
  "title": "A suicide rate pooled over published county-years is {fact:nv_su_0} times the panel's rate in counties under {fact:sz_c1} residents and {fact:nv_su_2} times in counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "cause": "Suicide"
      },
      "id": "su",
      "label": "Suicide"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The pooled overdose rate is above the panel's in every size of county from {fact:sz_c1} to {fact:lbd_thr} residents, and the rate pooled over counties published every year is {fact:cv_od_2} times the panel's at {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents, {fact:cv_od_3} at {fact:sz_c3} to {fact:nat_thr} and {fact:cv_od_4} at {fact:nat_thr} to {fact:lbd_thr}.",
      "filter": {
        "cause": "Drug overdose"
      },
      "id": "od",
      "label": "Drug overdose",
      "spec": {
        "xDomain": [
          0,
          4.5
        ]
      },
      "title": "A drug overdose rate pooled over published county-years is {fact:nv_od_0} times the panel's rate in counties under {fact:sz_c1} residents and {fact:nv_od_2} times in counties of {fact:sz_c2} to {fact:sz_c3} residents"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}