{
  "alt": "Dot plot of one slope per state with a 95% interval, ordered by the estimate and not ranked. In the first view, in points with counties weighted by births, every dot is left of zero; the intervals for some of the states lie entirely left of zero and the rest cross zero. Three more views show the slopes with each county counting once and as the percent difference in the smoking share for a {fact:income_step} higher county income, where {fact:states_neg_prop} of the {fact:states_k} weighted dots lie left of zero.",
  "caption": "Every dot is left of zero in the first view, and the intervals are wide: most include zero, and none lies right of it. The vertical rule marks the common slope across these states. Each dot is a least-squares line through one state's counties, with HC3 standard errors and t intervals. The views give the slope in points and as a percent difference in the smoking share for a {fact:income_step} higher income, with counties weighted by births or each counting once. Rows are ordered by the estimate to make the figure readable, and the order is not a ranking, since the intervals overlap.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 0.58,
      "conf_low": -7.14,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -3.28,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Alabama",
      "state_share": 4.57,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.7,
      "conf_low": -13.64,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.97,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Arizona",
      "state_share": 3.19,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.14,
      "conf_low": -8.56,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.35,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Colorado",
      "state_share": 3.68,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.08,
      "conf_low": -16.92,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -6.42,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 8,
      "state": "Connecticut",
      "state_share": 2.62,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.09,
      "conf_low": -10.03,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -3.97,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 32,
      "state": "Florida",
      "state_share": 2.71,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.73,
      "conf_low": -4.95,
      "counties_left_out": 2,
      "estimate": -3.34,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 22,
      "state": "Georgia",
      "state_share": 1.8,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.33,
      "conf_low": -16.4,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -8.37,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "Illinois",
      "state_share": 2.9,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.12,
      "conf_low": -10.21,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.17,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 17,
      "state": "Indiana",
      "state_share": 6.66,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.31,
      "conf_low": -6.94,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -0.81,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 14,
      "state": "Louisiana",
      "state_share": 3.08,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.43,
      "conf_low": -9.51,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.04,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 13,
      "state": "Maryland",
      "state_share": 3.07,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.97,
      "conf_low": -7.52,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.24,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Massachusetts",
      "state_share": 2.79,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.51,
      "conf_low": -24.4,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.45,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 20,
      "state": "Michigan",
      "state_share": 6.58,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.93,
      "conf_low": -19.54,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.8,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "state_share": 3.72,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.34,
      "conf_low": -12.12,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -6.23,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Missouri",
      "state_share": 7.17,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.75,
      "conf_low": -4.47,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -1.86,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "New Jersey",
      "state_share": 1.88,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.41,
      "conf_low": -9.13,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -2.36,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "New York",
      "state_share": 2.3,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.25,
      "conf_low": -11.15,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -8.2,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.22,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.98,
      "conf_low": -13.71,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.34,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 28,
      "state": "Ohio",
      "state_share": 8.32,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.7,
      "conf_low": -15.26,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -9.98,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Oregon",
      "state_share": 4.75,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.47,
      "conf_low": -15.68,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.1,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 31,
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "state_share": 6.36,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.97,
      "conf_low": -10.99,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.51,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.49,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.85,
      "conf_low": -28.66,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -0.91,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Tennessee",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.83,
      "conf_low": -2.1,
      "counties_left_out": 3,
      "estimate": -0.63,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 36,
      "state": "Texas",
      "state_share": 1.27,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.25,
      "conf_low": -5.2,
      "counties_left_out": 4,
      "estimate": -2.72,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Virginia",
      "state_share": 2.82,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.83,
      "conf_low": -14.2,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.69,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Washington",
      "state_share": 3.66,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.8,
      "conf_low": -20.54,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -3.37,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "Wisconsin",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.33,
      "conf_low": -11.26,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.47,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Alabama",
      "state_share": 4.57,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.92,
      "conf_low": -13.11,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.59,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Arizona",
      "state_share": 3.19,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.94,
      "conf_low": -9.84,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.89,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Colorado",
      "state_share": 3.68,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.81,
      "conf_low": -18.13,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -8.16,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 8,
      "state": "Connecticut",
      "state_share": 2.62,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.75,
      "conf_low": -10.73,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -4.49,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 32,
      "state": "Florida",
      "state_share": 2.71,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.07,
      "conf_low": -4.84,
      "counties_left_out": 2,
      "estimate": -2.96,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 22,
      "state": "Georgia",
      "state_share": 1.8,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.09,
      "conf_low": -14.72,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -11.4,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "Illinois",
      "state_share": 2.9,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.93,
      "conf_low": -13.06,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -9.5,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 17,
      "state": "Indiana",
      "state_share": 6.66,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.93,
      "conf_low": -6.01,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -1.54,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 14,
      "state": "Louisiana",
      "state_share": 3.08,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.67,
      "conf_low": -17.26,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.8,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 13,
      "state": "Maryland",
      "state_share": 3.07,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.16,
      "conf_low": -14.99,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -6.41,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Massachusetts",
      "state_share": 2.79,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.48,
      "conf_low": -18.78,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -12.63,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 20,
      "state": "Michigan",
      "state_share": 6.58,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.22,
      "conf_low": -22.26,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -9.52,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "state_share": 3.72,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.12,
      "conf_low": -12.76,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.82,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Missouri",
      "state_share": 7.17,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.37,
      "conf_low": -6.11,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -2.87,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "New Jersey",
      "state_share": 1.88,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.06,
      "conf_low": -16.15,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -8.6,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "New York",
      "state_share": 2.3,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.54,
      "conf_low": -10.18,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.86,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.22,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.73,
      "conf_low": -15.57,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -11.15,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 28,
      "state": "Ohio",
      "state_share": 8.32,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.9,
      "conf_low": -20.36,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -12.13,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Oregon",
      "state_share": 4.75,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.11,
      "conf_low": -16.34,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -11.72,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 31,
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "state_share": 6.36,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.1,
      "conf_low": -9.31,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.71,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.49,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.13,
      "conf_low": -29,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -9.43,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Tennessee",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.26,
      "conf_low": -5.19,
      "counties_left_out": 3,
      "estimate": -2.73,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 36,
      "state": "Texas",
      "state_share": 1.27,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.05,
      "conf_low": -4.23,
      "counties_left_out": 4,
      "estimate": -2.09,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Virginia",
      "state_share": 2.82,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.67,
      "conf_low": -15.06,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -4.69,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Washington",
      "state_share": 3.66,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.95,
      "conf_low": -15.34,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -6.69,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "points",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "Wisconsin",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.51,
      "conf_low": -17.55,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -7.62,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Alabama",
      "state_share": 4.57,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.2,
      "conf_low": -42.48,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -13.8,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Arizona",
      "state_share": 3.19,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.2,
      "conf_low": -24.34,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -14.86,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Colorado",
      "state_share": 3.68,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 64.6,
      "conf_low": -76.01,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -37.17,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 8,
      "state": "Connecticut",
      "state_share": 2.62,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.45,
      "conf_low": -39.7,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -9.96,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 32,
      "state": "Florida",
      "state_share": 2.71,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -13.14,
      "conf_low": -27.42,
      "counties_left_out": 2,
      "estimate": -20.6,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 22,
      "state": "Georgia",
      "state_share": 1.8,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.01,
      "conf_low": -43.86,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -24.7,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "Illinois",
      "state_share": 2.9,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.4,
      "conf_low": -37.44,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -21.06,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 17,
      "state": "Indiana",
      "state_share": 6.66,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.8,
      "conf_low": -25.39,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -2.35,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 14,
      "state": "Louisiana",
      "state_share": 3.08,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.91,
      "conf_low": -33.5,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.27,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 13,
      "state": "Maryland",
      "state_share": 3.07,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.6,
      "conf_low": -28.02,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.13,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Massachusetts",
      "state_share": 2.79,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.26,
      "conf_low": -37.23,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -15.68,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 20,
      "state": "Michigan",
      "state_share": 6.58,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.21,
      "conf_low": -32.93,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -18.02,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "state_share": 3.72,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.81,
      "conf_low": -20.52,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -12.11,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Missouri",
      "state_share": 7.17,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.28,
      "conf_low": -23.37,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -11.04,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "New Jersey",
      "state_share": 1.88,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.05,
      "conf_low": -27.8,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -7.29,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "New York",
      "state_share": 2.3,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -18.48,
      "conf_low": -33.19,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -26.2,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.22,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.28,
      "conf_low": -19.29,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -10.74,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 28,
      "state": "Ohio",
      "state_share": 8.32,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.98,
      "conf_low": -40.79,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -25.39,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Oregon",
      "state_share": 4.75,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.55,
      "conf_low": -27.57,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -9.71,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 31,
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "state_share": 6.36,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.96,
      "conf_low": -30.76,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -9.25,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.49,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 84.52,
      "conf_low": -39.93,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": 5.28,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Tennessee",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.58,
      "conf_low": -15.83,
      "counties_left_out": 3,
      "estimate": -0.52,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 36,
      "state": "Texas",
      "state_share": 1.27,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.62,
      "conf_low": -33.86,
      "counties_left_out": 4,
      "estimate": -16.02,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Virginia",
      "state_share": 2.82,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.49,
      "conf_low": -49.98,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -21.4,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Washington",
      "state_share": 3.66,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.32,
      "conf_low": -43.04,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -10.92,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "Wisconsin",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.91,
      "conf_low": -21.15,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -12.06,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Alabama",
      "state_share": 4.57,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.21,
      "conf_low": -31.45,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -10.74,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Arizona",
      "state_share": 3.19,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.96,
      "conf_low": -21.63,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.41,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Colorado",
      "state_share": 3.68,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.83,
      "conf_low": -63.91,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -33.42,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 8,
      "state": "Connecticut",
      "state_share": 2.62,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.51,
      "conf_low": -26.28,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -11.39,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 32,
      "state": "Florida",
      "state_share": 2.71,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.43,
      "conf_low": -23.22,
      "counties_left_out": 2,
      "estimate": -15.69,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 22,
      "state": "Georgia",
      "state_share": 1.8,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -23.62,
      "conf_low": -37.93,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -31.15,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "Illinois",
      "state_share": 2.9,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.85,
      "conf_low": -33.11,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -21.07,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 17,
      "state": "Indiana",
      "state_share": 6.66,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.41,
      "conf_low": -22.73,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -5.57,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 14,
      "state": "Louisiana",
      "state_share": 3.08,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.25,
      "conf_low": -37.28,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.22,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 13,
      "state": "Maryland",
      "state_share": 3.07,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.75,
      "conf_low": -35.58,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -20.85,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Massachusetts",
      "state_share": 2.79,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.04,
      "conf_low": -29.38,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -20.74,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 20,
      "state": "Michigan",
      "state_share": 6.58,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.08,
      "conf_low": -33.8,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -19.9,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Minnesota",
      "state_share": 3.72,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.69,
      "conf_low": -21.19,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -10.92,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 10,
      "state": "Missouri",
      "state_share": 7.17,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.79,
      "conf_low": -24.87,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -12.55,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 19,
      "state": "New Jersey",
      "state_share": 1.88,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.05,
      "conf_low": -42.67,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -24.26,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "New York",
      "state_share": 2.3,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.29,
      "conf_low": -28.79,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -20.97,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 27,
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.22,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.24,
      "conf_low": -18.88,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -15.14,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 28,
      "state": "Ohio",
      "state_share": 8.32,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -10.85,
      "conf_low": -36.84,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -24.96,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 9,
      "state": "Oregon",
      "state_share": 4.75,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.65,
      "conf_low": -23,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.99,
      "evidence": "Interval below zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 31,
      "state": "Pennsylvania",
      "state_share": 6.36,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.89,
      "conf_low": -23.82,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -11.04,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "South Carolina",
      "state_share": 4.49,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.12,
      "conf_low": -36.17,
      "counties_left_out": 1,
      "estimate": -10.64,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Tennessee",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.6,
      "conf_low": -25.12,
      "counties_left_out": 3,
      "estimate": -11.5,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 36,
      "state": "Texas",
      "state_share": 1.27,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.14,
      "conf_low": -25.06,
      "counties_left_out": 4,
      "estimate": -11.24,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 11,
      "state": "Virginia",
      "state_share": 2.82,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.75,
      "conf_low": -38.91,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -13.76,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 12,
      "state": "Washington",
      "state_share": 3.66,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.24,
      "conf_low": -34.81,
      "counties_left_out": 0,
      "estimate": -17.17,
      "evidence": "Interval includes zero",
      "measure": "proportion",
      "n": 15,
      "state": "Wisconsin",
      "state_share": 5.53,
      "weighting": "Each county counts once"
    }
  ],
  "id": "state_slopes",
  "notes": [
    "Large counties are the counties that CDC WONDER names individually: those with {fact:wonder_threshold} residents or more. WONDER pools the births of every smaller county in a state into one row, so smaller counties are not in these data. Of the {fact:n_named} large counties named in every year from 2018 to 2024, California ({fact:n_ca}) and {fact:n_dropped} counties with a withheld smoking count are left out, which leaves {fact:n_complete}.",
    "County median household income is the County Health Rankings 2024 release, a Census Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates value for 2022. Its year differs from the births, which are from 2018 to 2024.",
    "A state gets a slope when it has at least {fact:k_floor} complete counties, which gives {fact:states_k} states and {fact:counties_k} counties. Intervals are 95% intervals from a t distribution with the state's counties minus two degrees of freedom and heteroskedasticity-robust (HC3) standard errors, so a state with few counties has a wide interval and the interval may be too narrow where one county dominates.",
    "Virginia has {fact:va_dropped} of its {fact:va_named} large counties left out for a withheld smoking count, and counties left out in other states are listed in the data table. A state with counties left out rests on the rest.",
    "Counties differ by less than a doubling of income in a typical state: the median span between a state's lowest and highest county income is {fact:x_range_median} doublings, so the slopes extend beyond what most states' own counties cover."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER natality, tobacco use during pregnancy, births in 2018-2024; full counts of births; counties ranked on County Health Rankings 2024 median household income (Census SAIPE 2022); state slopes weighted by births with a known answer or unweighted as labeled, 95% t intervals",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Interval above zero": "cat6",
      "Interval below zero": "cat1",
      "Interval includes zero": "muted"
    },
    "group": "evidence",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": true,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": -3.82,
    "referenceLabel": "Common slope",
    "sort": "asc",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -30,
      30
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "xLabel": "Percentage points per doubling of county median household income",
    "y": "state"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the share of births to mothers who smoked per doubling of county median household income (SAIPE 2022), one dot per state with at least {fact:k_floor} complete large counties, 2018 to 2024, with 95% intervals; four views by scale and by weighting",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "state",
        "label": "State"
      },
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Scale"
      },
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Counties"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Slope"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower limit of the 95% interval"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper limit of the 95% interval"
      },
      {
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Complete counties"
      },
      {
        "key": "counties_left_out",
        "label": "Counties left out for a withheld count"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "state_share",
        "label": "State share (%)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In all {fact:states_k} states with a slope of their own the estimated slope is below zero, and the 95% interval lies below zero in {fact:states_below} when counties are weighted by births",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "measure": "points",
        "weighting": "Weighted by births"
      },
      "id": "points",
      "label": "Points, weighted by births"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each dot is a slope in points with each county counting once. The vertical rule marks the common slope across these states. Rows are ordered by the estimate and the order is not a ranking.",
      "filter": {
        "measure": "points",
        "weighting": "Each county counts once"
      },
      "id": "points_unweighted",
      "label": "Points, each county once",
      "spec": {
        "reference": -6.74,
        "xDomain": [
          -30,
          30
        ]
      },
      "title": "With each county counting once, the estimated slope is below zero in {fact:states_neg_u} of the {fact:states_k} states and the interval lies below zero in {fact:states_below_u}"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each dot is the percent difference in the smoking share for a {fact:income_step} higher county income, from a line through the log of the share, with counties weighted by births. The vertical rule marks the common slope across these states.",
      "filter": {
        "measure": "proportion",
        "weighting": "Weighted by births"
      },
      "id": "proportion",
      "label": "Percent, weighted by births",
      "spec": {
        "reference": -11.87,
        "xDomain": [
          -80,
          90
        ],
        "xLabel": "Percent difference in the smoking share for a 10 percent higher county income"
      },
      "title": "Expressed as a percent of the smoking share, {fact:states_neg_prop} of the {fact:states_k} estimated slopes are below zero and the interval lies below zero in {fact:states_below_prop}"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each dot is the percent difference in the smoking share for a {fact:income_step} higher county income with each county counting once. The vertical rule marks the common slope across these states.",
      "filter": {
        "measure": "proportion",
        "weighting": "Each county counts once"
      },
      "id": "proportion_unweighted",
      "label": "Percent, each county once",
      "spec": {
        "reference": -16.99,
        "xDomain": [
          -70,
          30
        ],
        "xLabel": "Percent difference in the smoking share for a 10 percent higher county income"
      },
      "title": "With each county counting once and the slope in proportion, {fact:states_neg_prop_u} of the {fact:states_k} estimated slopes are below zero and the interval lies below zero in {fact:states_below_prop_u}"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}