{
  "alt": "A figure with two tabs of line charts. The first shows the percent of children from low-income families incarcerated rising with tract deprivation. The second shows Black and white children in the same tracts, with the Black line above the white line at every level of deprivation.",
  "caption": "The first tab pools all races and the second compares Black and white children raised in the same tracts. Tracts are ranked on the Area Deprivation Index of the 2020 tracts that overlap them.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "incarceration_gradient",
  "notes": [
    "Children were born in 1978 to 1983 and the incarceration share is for April 1, 2010. The Opportunity Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so some tract values are below zero. Genders are pooled.",
    "Each tract is weighted by its 2010 census population, the nearest stand-in for the number of children because the Atlas file has no child counts. Counting each tract once gives similar results.",
    "The Area Deprivation Index is defined on 2020 tracts. A 2010 tract takes the land-area-weighted mean rank of the 2020 tracts that overlap it, which is an approximation where boundaries changed. Tenths hold equal numbers of tracts.",
    "Tract estimates rest on a modest number of children. A tract is in the second tab only if both the Black and the white estimate exist, so these are tracts with sizeable populations of both groups and not a sample of all tracts.",
    "Across all the tracts in the second tab the incarceration share is {fact:us_inc_black} for Black children and {fact:us_inc_white} for white children."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas, 1978-1983 birth cohorts, 2010 tracts, and Area Deprivation Index, 2023; population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Line chart of the percent of children from low-income families who were incarcerated, by tract deprivation percentile. The line rises from the least deprived tracts on the left to the most deprived on the right, with a steeper climb at the far right and intervals that are narrow across the range.",
          "caption": "The line rises from left to right, steeply only in the most deprived tenth. Each point is the population-weighted mean for the tracts at one percentile of the deprivation rank, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties; the correlation across all {fact:inc_n_tracts} tracts is {fact:inc_r_adi}.",
          "data": [
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              "estimate": 0.756,
              "n": 630,
              "percentile": 1
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.024,
              "conf_low": 0.572,
              "estimate": 0.782,
              "n": 642,
              "percentile": 2
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.124,
              "conf_low": 0.785,
              "estimate": 0.961,
              "n": 566,
              "percentile": 3
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.145,
              "conf_low": 0.825,
              "estimate": 0.967,
              "n": 748,
              "percentile": 4
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.263,
              "conf_low": 0.847,
              "estimate": 1.038,
              "n": 614,
              "percentile": 5
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.397,
              "conf_low": 0.948,
              "estimate": 1.152,
              "n": 765,
              "percentile": 6
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.229,
              "conf_low": 0.845,
              "estimate": 1.03,
              "n": 587,
              "percentile": 7
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.433,
              "conf_low": 1.06,
              "estimate": 1.226,
              "n": 775,
              "percentile": 8
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.428,
              "conf_low": 1.023,
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              "n": 623,
              "percentile": 9
            },
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              "conf_high": 1.438,
              "conf_low": 1.052,
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              "n": 796,
              "percentile": 10
            },
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              "conf_high": 1.554,
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              "n": 565,
              "percentile": 11
            },
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              "percentile": 12
            },
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              "conf_high": 1.444,
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              "n": 647,
              "percentile": 13
            },
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              "percentile": 14
            },
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              "percentile": 15
            },
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            },
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              "percentile": 17
            },
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              "n": 832,
              "percentile": 18
            },
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              "n": 661,
              "percentile": 19
            },
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              "percentile": 20
            },
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              "percentile": 21
            },
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            },
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              "percentile": 24
            },
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              "percentile": 25
            },
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              "percentile": 26
            },
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              "n": 651,
              "percentile": 27
            },
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              "n": 778,
              "percentile": 28
            },
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              "n": 593,
              "percentile": 29
            },
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              "conf_high": 1.971,
              "conf_low": 1.622,
              "estimate": 1.796,
              "n": 878,
              "percentile": 30
            },
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              "conf_high": 1.923,
              "conf_low": 1.603,
              "estimate": 1.755,
              "n": 647,
              "percentile": 31
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.082,
              "conf_low": 1.76,
              "estimate": 1.914,
              "n": 790,
              "percentile": 32
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.957,
              "conf_low": 1.636,
              "estimate": 1.793,
              "n": 612,
              "percentile": 33
            },
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              "estimate": 1.909,
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              "percentile": 34
            },
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              "percentile": 35
            },
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              "estimate": 1.778,
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              "percentile": 36
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              "percentile": 37
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              "percentile": 38
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              "percentile": 50
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              "conf_low": 1.997,
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              "percentile": 51
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              "percentile": 53
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              "percentile": 54
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              "percentile": 55
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              "percentile": 56
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              "percentile": 60
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              "percentile": 62
            },
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              "percentile": 63
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              "percentile": 64
            },
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              "n": 708,
              "percentile": 65
            },
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              "conf_low": 2.15,
              "estimate": 2.29,
              "n": 847,
              "percentile": 66
            },
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              "estimate": 2.39,
              "n": 694,
              "percentile": 67
            },
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              "percentile": 68
            },
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              "estimate": 2.28,
              "n": 665,
              "percentile": 69
            },
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              "conf_low": 2.363,
              "estimate": 2.518,
              "n": 824,
              "percentile": 70
            },
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              "estimate": 2.438,
              "n": 678,
              "percentile": 71
            },
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              "estimate": 2.451,
              "n": 837,
              "percentile": 72
            },
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              "n": 667,
              "percentile": 73
            },
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              "estimate": 2.426,
              "n": 832,
              "percentile": 74
            },
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              "estimate": 2.489,
              "n": 725,
              "percentile": 75
            },
            {
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              "n": 787,
              "percentile": 76
            },
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              "n": 650,
              "percentile": 77
            },
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              "conf_low": 2.365,
              "estimate": 2.513,
              "n": 851,
              "percentile": 78
            },
            {
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              "n": 709,
              "percentile": 79
            },
            {
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              "estimate": 2.464,
              "n": 848,
              "percentile": 80
            },
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              "n": 642,
              "percentile": 81
            },
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              "n": 833,
              "percentile": 82
            },
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              "n": 646,
              "percentile": 83
            },
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              "estimate": 2.7,
              "n": 766,
              "percentile": 84
            },
            {
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              "n": 643,
              "percentile": 85
            },
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              "n": 835,
              "percentile": 86
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.833,
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              "estimate": 2.653,
              "n": 611,
              "percentile": 87
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.861,
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              "estimate": 2.694,
              "n": 730,
              "percentile": 88
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.906,
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              "estimate": 2.718,
              "n": 649,
              "percentile": 89
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.933,
              "conf_low": 2.54,
              "estimate": 2.731,
              "n": 782,
              "percentile": 90
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.11,
              "conf_low": 2.677,
              "estimate": 2.891,
              "n": 579,
              "percentile": 91
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.166,
              "conf_low": 2.761,
              "estimate": 2.965,
              "n": 747,
              "percentile": 92
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.264,
              "conf_low": 2.743,
              "estimate": 3.001,
              "n": 576,
              "percentile": 93
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.493,
              "conf_low": 2.885,
              "estimate": 3.199,
              "n": 694,
              "percentile": 94
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.487,
              "conf_low": 2.997,
              "estimate": 3.24,
              "n": 528,
              "percentile": 95
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.747,
              "conf_low": 3.237,
              "estimate": 3.494,
              "n": 648,
              "percentile": 96
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 3.888,
              "conf_low": 3.295,
              "estimate": 3.589,
              "n": 525,
              "percentile": 97
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 4.149,
              "conf_low": 3.674,
              "estimate": 3.909,
              "n": 603,
              "percentile": 98
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 4.436,
              "conf_low": 3.904,
              "estimate": 4.185,
              "n": 547,
              "percentile": 99
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 4.507,
              "conf_low": 3.956,
              "estimate": 4.227,
              "n": 603,
              "percentile": 100
            }
          ],
          "id": "incarceration_by_deprivation",
          "spec": {
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "x": "percentile",
            "xDomain": [
              1,
              100
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 0
            },
            "xLabel": "Tract deprivation rank (ADI national percentile; 1 = least deprived, 100 = most deprived)",
            "y": "estimate",
            "yDomain": [
              0,
              5
            ],
            "yFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "yLabel": "Percent incarcerated on April 1, 2010"
          },
          "subtitle": "Percent of children from low-income families incarcerated on April 1, 2010, by percentile of the tract's Area Deprivation Index national rank (built from 2019-2023 data), races pooled, children born 1978 to 1983",
          "title": "Incarceration of children from low-income families rose with tract deprivation, from {fact:inc_d1} in the least deprived tenth of tracts to {fact:inc_d10} in the most deprived",
          "type": "line"
        },
        "label": "All children, by deprivation"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Line chart of the percent incarcerated for Black and white children from low-income families by tenth of tract deprivation. The Black line is above the white line at every tenth, both lines rise toward the most deprived tracts, and the Black line at the least deprived tenth is above the white line at the most deprived tenth.",
          "caption": "The Black line stays well above the white line in every tenth of tracts, and the Black line in the least deprived tenth is above the white line in the most deprived. Each point is a population-weighted mean over the {fact:inc_n_shared} tracts where both groups are estimated, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 4.174,
              "conf_low": 3.403,
              "decile": 1,
              "estimate": 3.802,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2742
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 4.802,
              "conf_low": 4.126,
              "decile": 2,
              "estimate": 4.459,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2796
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 5.084,
              "conf_low": 4.507,
              "decile": 3,
              "estimate": 4.79,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2767
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 5.296,
              "conf_low": 4.753,
              "decile": 4,
              "estimate": 5.023,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2791
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 5.61,
              "conf_low": 5.079,
              "decile": 5,
              "estimate": 5.33,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2756
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 5.765,
              "conf_low": 5.313,
              "decile": 6,
              "estimate": 5.524,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2762
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 5.738,
              "conf_low": 5.318,
              "decile": 7,
              "estimate": 5.517,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2761
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 6.033,
              "conf_low": 5.554,
              "decile": 8,
              "estimate": 5.794,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2776
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 6.096,
              "conf_low": 5.591,
              "decile": 9,
              "estimate": 5.845,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2770
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 6.681,
              "conf_low": 6.061,
              "decile": 10,
              "estimate": 6.365,
              "group": "Black children",
              "n": 2769
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.405,
              "conf_low": 1.095,
              "decile": 1,
              "estimate": 1.234,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2742
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.608,
              "conf_low": 1.33,
              "decile": 2,
              "estimate": 1.47,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2796
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 1.749,
              "conf_low": 1.52,
              "decile": 3,
              "estimate": 1.635,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2767
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.033,
              "conf_low": 1.803,
              "decile": 4,
              "estimate": 1.92,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2791
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.234,
              "conf_low": 1.866,
              "decile": 5,
              "estimate": 2.049,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2756
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.295,
              "conf_low": 1.969,
              "decile": 6,
              "estimate": 2.134,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2762
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.393,
              "conf_low": 2.069,
              "decile": 7,
              "estimate": 2.225,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2761
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.416,
              "conf_low": 2.102,
              "decile": 8,
              "estimate": 2.253,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2776
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.452,
              "conf_low": 2.175,
              "decile": 9,
              "estimate": 2.316,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2770
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 2.807,
              "conf_low": 2.404,
              "decile": 10,
              "estimate": 2.594,
              "group": "White children",
              "n": 2769
            }
          ],
          "id": "incarceration_by_race",
          "spec": {
            "bandSeries": [
              "Black children",
              "White children"
            ],
            "colors": {
              "Black children": "black",
              "White children": "white"
            },
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "series": "group",
            "x": "decile",
            "xDomain": [
              1,
              10
            ],
            "xLabel": "Tenth of tracts by deprivation rank (1 = least deprived, 10 = most deprived)",
            "xTicks": "data",
            "y": "estimate",
            "yDomain": [
              0,
              8
            ],
            "yFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "yLabel": "Percent incarcerated on April 1, 2010"
          },
          "subtitle": "Percent of children from low-income families incarcerated on April 1, 2010, by tenth of the tract's Area Deprivation Index national rank (built from 2019-2023 data), Black and white children in the same tracts, children born 1978 to 1983",
          "title": "Black children from low-income families were incarcerated more often than white children from the same tracts at every level of tract deprivation",
          "type": "line"
        },
        "label": "Black and white children in the same tracts"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Percent incarcerated on April 1, 2010, among children from low-income families born 1978 to 1983, by the deprivation of the tract where they grew up, ranked on 2019-2023 data",
  "title": "Incarceration of children from low-income families rose with tract deprivation and was higher for Black than for white children in the same tracts",
  "type": "tabs"
}