{
  "alt": "Scatter plot of the adult income rank of children from higher-income families against children from lower-income families, one dot per tract, with a diagonal for no advantage. Dots lie above the diagonal, and a fitted line rises more slowly than the diagonal, so the vertical gap narrows toward the right.",
  "caption": "Dots lie above the diagonal, which would mean no advantage, and the fitted line is flatter than the diagonal, so the gap between the two ladders is smaller in tracts where children from low-income families do better. Dots are a random sample of {fact:n_sample} of {fact:n_prem_tracts} tracts, and {fact:n_outside_prem} tracts fall outside the plotted range; markers are population-weighted decile means with 95% intervals from a bootstrap over counties.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "born_rich_premium",
  "notes": [
    "The dots are a random sample of {fact:n_sample} tracts inside the plotted range (seed 12345); the means, slope and intervals use all {fact:n_prem_tracts} tracts with both estimates.",
    "The fitted line is the population-weighted least-squares line through the tracts, with slope {fact:conv_slope}. Sampling noise in the 25th-percentile rank pulls a tract slope toward zero. Averaging tracts to counties damps that noise: the slope is {fact:conv_slope_county} for counties with at least {fact:min_tracts_slope} tracts and {fact:conv_slope_county_big} for counties with at least {fact:min_tracts_county}, and all of them are flatter than the diagonal. Ranks are percentiles of the national distribution of household income for children born in 1978 to 1983, measured in 2014 to 2015. The Opportunity Atlas adds noise to its estimates to protect privacy and the staged values are never clipped, so a few fall outside 0 to 100."
  ],
  "source": "Opportunity Atlas tract outcomes, 2010 tracts, 1978-1983 birth cohorts; population-weighted (2010 tract population), modeled estimates",
  "spec": {
    "identity": true,
    "identityLabel": "No advantage",
    "overlays": [
      {
        "hi": "hi",
        "kind": "line",
        "label": "Decile means with 95% intervals",
        "lo": "lo",
        "rows": [
          {
            "hi": 46.32,
            "lo": 44.95,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 31.28,
            "y": 45.62
          },
          {
            "hi": 52.52,
            "lo": 51.61,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 35.65,
            "y": 52.08
          },
          {
            "hi": 54.58,
            "lo": 53.73,
            "n_units": 7193,
            "x": 38.07,
            "y": 54.17
          },
          {
            "hi": 55.64,
            "lo": 54.85,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 39.98,
            "y": 55.27
          },
          {
            "hi": 56.79,
            "lo": 55.98,
            "n_units": 7193,
            "x": 41.69,
            "y": 56.42
          },
          {
            "hi": 57.9,
            "lo": 57.13,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 43.39,
            "y": 57.53
          },
          {
            "hi": 58.81,
            "lo": 58.15,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 45.22,
            "y": 58.51
          },
          {
            "hi": 60.05,
            "lo": 59.36,
            "n_units": 7193,
            "x": 47.39,
            "y": 59.73
          },
          {
            "hi": 61.59,
            "lo": 60.91,
            "n_units": 7192,
            "x": 50.28,
            "y": 61.27
          },
          {
            "hi": 64.73,
            "lo": 63.88,
            "n_units": 7193,
            "x": 55.89,
            "y": 64.32
          }
        ],
        "x": "x",
        "y": "y"
      },
      {
        "kind": "line",
        "label": "Fitted line",
        "rows": [
          {
            "x": 15,
            "y": 37.4
          },
          {
            "x": 16.75,
            "y": 38.61
          },
          {
            "x": 18.5,
            "y": 39.81
          },
          {
            "x": 20.25,
            "y": 41.01
          },
          {
            "x": 22,
            "y": 42.22
          },
          {
            "x": 23.75,
            "y": 43.42
          },
          {
            "x": 25.5,
            "y": 44.62
          },
          {
            "x": 27.25,
            "y": 45.83
          },
          {
            "x": 29,
            "y": 47.03
          },
          {
            "x": 30.75,
            "y": 48.23
          },
          {
            "x": 32.5,
            "y": 49.43
          },
          {
            "x": 34.25,
            "y": 50.64
          },
          {
            "x": 36,
            "y": 51.84
          },
          {
            "x": 37.75,
            "y": 53.04
          },
          {
            "x": 39.5,
            "y": 54.25
          },
          {
            "x": 41.25,
            "y": 55.45
          },
          {
            "x": 43,
            "y": 56.65
          },
          {
            "x": 44.75,
            "y": 57.86
          },
          {
            "x": 46.5,
            "y": 59.06
          },
          {
            "x": 48.25,
            "y": 60.26
          },
          {
            "x": 50,
            "y": 61.46
          },
          {
            "x": 51.75,
            "y": 62.67
          },
          {
            "x": 53.5,
            "y": 63.87
          },
          {
            "x": 55.25,
            "y": 65.07
          },
          {
            "x": 57,
            "y": 66.28
          },
          {
            "x": 58.75,
            "y": 67.48
          },
          {
            "x": 60.5,
            "y": 68.68
          },
          {
            "x": 62.25,
            "y": 69.88
          },
          {
            "x": 64,
            "y": 71.09
          },
          {
            "x": 65.75,
            "y": 72.29
          },
          {
            "x": 67.5,
            "y": 73.49
          },
          {
            "x": 69.25,
            "y": 74.7
          },
          {
            "x": 71,
            "y": 75.9
          },
          {
            "x": 72.75,
            "y": 77.1
          },
          {
            "x": 74.5,
            "y": 78.31
          },
          {
            "x": 76.25,
            "y": 79.51
          },
          {
            "x": 78,
            "y": 80.71
          },
          {
            "x": 79.75,
            "y": 81.91
          },
          {
            "x": 81.5,
            "y": 83.12
          },
          {
            "x": 83.25,
            "y": 84.32
          },
          {
            "x": 85,
            "y": 85.52
          }
        ],
        "x": "x",
        "y": "y"
      }
    ],
    "payload": "born_rich_premium.json",
    "x": "p25",
    "xDomain": [
      15,
      85
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Adult income rank of children raised at the 25th income percentile (percentile)",
    "y": "p75",
    "yDomain": [
      15,
      85
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Adult income rank of children raised at the 75th income percentile (percentile)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Adult household income rank (percentile) of children raised at the 75th income percentile against those raised at the 25th, one dot per tract, races pooled",
  "title": "Children raised at the 75th income percentile reach adult ranks {fact:prem} points above those raised at the 25th in the same tract, a difference that is smaller where the latter do better",
  "type": "scatter"
}