{
  "alt": "Three tabs. The first is a dot plot of the denial rate by HOLC grade, rising from grade A at the left to grade C, with grade D close to grade C. The second is a dot plot of the difference from grade A for grades B, C and D under three adjustments: the differences are positive with no adjustment or within a city, and all three intervals include zero within a city and a tenth of the deprivation index. The third is four panels of dots by grade for each applicant group, where the white dots rise from grade A to grade D and the intervals for the other groups are wide in grade A.",
  "caption": "The first tab shows the rate rising from grade A to grade C, with grade D close to grade C; the second shows the differences from grade A shrinking to nothing detectable when tracts are compared within the same city and the same tenth of the deprivation index; the third shows each applicant group's rates by grade, where grade A rests on few tracts for the Black, Hispanic and Asian groups and their intervals are wide. A group appears only where a grade rests on at least {fact:holc_min_group_tracts} tracts. The 95% interval comes from a bootstrap over counties in the first and third tabs and from county-clustered regression errors in the second.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "denial_by_holc_grade",
  "notes": [
    "A tract takes a grade when graded polygons cover at least {fact:holc_cover_min} of its area, and the grade that covers the most of it. The tracts are the {fact:holc_n_published} graded tracts with a published cell and a deprivation rank, in {fact:holc_n_cities} city and state pairs. With a stricter rule, graded polygons covering at least {fact:holc_cover_strict} of a tract, the gap between grades D and A is {fact:holc_gap_d_strict} points. The comparison is descriptive: the grades followed the housing, incomes and populations of the 1930s, and the HOLC cities are not a national sample.",
    "The adjusted differences come from weighted regressions of the tract denial rate on grade, weighted by decided applications, with errors clustered by county, on the {fact:holc_n_published} graded tracts. The third adjustment gives each of {fact:holc_n_cells} city and tenth cells its own baseline, so a grade is compared with another grade only inside a cell that holds tracts of both."
  ],
  "source": "HMDA Loan/Application Register, 2024, tract totals of decided applications; Mapping Inequality HOLC maps (1935-1940) overlaid on 2020 tracts; Area Deprivation Index, 2023; full counts, pooled rates",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot plot of the denial rate for four HOLC grades, rising from grade A on the top row to grade C, with grade D close to grade C and the intervals for grades A and D apart.",
          "caption": "The dots step to the right from grade A to grade B and from grade B to grade C, grade D sits close to grade C, and the intervals for grades A and D do not overlap.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 8.96,
              "conf_low": 6.98,
              "estimate": 7.91,
              "grade": "A",
              "label": "Grade A",
              "tracts": 650
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 10.27,
              "conf_low": 8.47,
              "estimate": 9.37,
              "grade": "B",
              "label": "Grade B",
              "tracts": 2003
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 11.81,
              "conf_low": 10.01,
              "estimate": 10.91,
              "grade": "C",
              "label": "Grade C",
              "tracts": 4008
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 12.5,
              "conf_low": 10.21,
              "estimate": 11.32,
              "grade": "D",
              "label": "Grade D",
              "tracts": 2087
            }
          ],
          "id": "holc_rates",
          "spec": {
            "colors": {
              "A": "holcA",
              "B": "holcB",
              "C": "holcC",
              "D": "holcD"
            },
            "group": "grade",
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "legend": false,
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "tracts",
            "sort": "data",
            "valueLabels": true,
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              0,
              16
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Denied share of decided applications (%)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "Denied share of decided home-purchase applications, 2024, pooled over tracts of each HOLC grade",
          "title": "The denial rate rises from grade A to grade C and differs little between grades C and D",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "By grade"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot plot of differences from grade A for grades B, C and D under three adjustments. With no adjustment and within a city the dots sit to the right of zero; within a city and a tenth of the deprivation index all three intervals include zero.",
          "caption": "With no adjustment or within a city, every grade is above grade A; comparing tracts of the same city and the same tenth of the deprivation index puts all three intervals around zero.",
          "data": [
            {
              "comparison": "Grade B against grade A",
              "conf_high": 2.41,
              "conf_low": 0.52,
              "estimate": 1.47,
              "specification": "No adjustment",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade C against grade A",
              "conf_high": 4.1,
              "conf_low": 1.91,
              "estimate": 3.01,
              "specification": "No adjustment",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade D against grade A",
              "conf_high": 4.74,
              "conf_low": 2.09,
              "estimate": 3.42,
              "specification": "No adjustment",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade B against grade A",
              "conf_high": 2.59,
              "conf_low": 1.01,
              "estimate": 1.8,
              "specification": "Same city",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade C against grade A",
              "conf_high": 3.97,
              "conf_low": 1.99,
              "estimate": 2.98,
              "specification": "Same city",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade D against grade A",
              "conf_high": 4.83,
              "conf_low": 2.15,
              "estimate": 3.49,
              "specification": "Same city",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade B against grade A",
              "conf_high": 0.48,
              "conf_low": -0.91,
              "estimate": -0.21,
              "specification": "Same city and tenth of the deprivation index",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade C against grade A",
              "conf_high": 0.62,
              "conf_low": -1.35,
              "estimate": -0.36,
              "specification": "Same city and tenth of the deprivation index",
              "tracts": 8748
            },
            {
              "comparison": "Grade D against grade A",
              "conf_high": 1.08,
              "conf_low": -1.06,
              "estimate": 0.01,
              "specification": "Same city and tenth of the deprivation index",
              "tracts": 8748
            }
          ],
          "id": "holc_adjusted",
          "spec": {
            "colors": {
              "No adjustment": "muted",
              "Same city": "cat2",
              "Same city and tenth of the deprivation index": "highlight"
            },
            "group": "specification",
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "tracts",
            "reference": 0,
            "referenceLabel": "Same as grade A",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              -4,
              6
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Difference in denial rate from grade A (percentage points)",
            "y": "comparison"
          },
          "subtitle": "Denial rate of tracts of each grade minus that of grade A tracts, percentage points, from weighted regressions with errors clustered by county",
          "title": "Within a city and a tenth of the deprivation index, no grade differs detectably from grade A",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "Within city and deprivation"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Four panels of dots by HOLC grade, one for each applicant group. The white dots rise from grade A to grade D. The panels for Black, Hispanic and Asian applicants have wide intervals in grade A tracts, which rest on few tracts.",
          "caption": "The white dots rise from grade A to grade D. Grade A rests on few tracts for the Black, Hispanic and Asian groups, and the difference between grades D and A is {fact:holc_dgap_black} points for Black applicants and {fact:holc_dgap_hispanic} for Hispanic applicants, each with an interval that holds zero and the all-applicant gap of {fact:holc_gap_d_raw}.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 5.94,
              "conf_low": 4.54,
              "estimate": 5.17,
              "grade": "A",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic white",
              "label": "Grade A",
              "tracts": 517
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 6.39,
              "conf_low": 5.12,
              "estimate": 5.71,
              "grade": "B",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic white",
              "label": "Grade B",
              "tracts": 1250
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 6.79,
              "conf_low": 5.66,
              "estimate": 6.18,
              "grade": "C",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic white",
              "label": "Grade C",
              "tracts": 1912
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 7.91,
              "conf_low": 5.47,
              "estimate": 6.52,
              "grade": "D",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic white",
              "label": "Grade D",
              "tracts": 848
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 25.15,
              "conf_low": 15.2,
              "estimate": 20.41,
              "grade": "A",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Black",
              "label": "Grade A",
              "tracts": 63
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 20.99,
              "conf_low": 15.16,
              "estimate": 17.88,
              "grade": "B",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Black",
              "label": "Grade B",
              "tracts": 301
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 21.4,
              "conf_low": 17.73,
              "estimate": 19.6,
              "grade": "C",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Black",
              "label": "Grade C",
              "tracts": 494
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 23.35,
              "conf_low": 17.39,
              "estimate": 20.49,
              "grade": "D",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Black",
              "label": "Grade D",
              "tracts": 252
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 23.31,
              "conf_low": 11.3,
              "estimate": 16.97,
              "grade": "A",
              "group": "Hispanic (any race)",
              "label": "Grade A",
              "tracts": 60
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 16.2,
              "conf_low": 12.54,
              "estimate": 14.17,
              "grade": "B",
              "group": "Hispanic (any race)",
              "label": "Grade B",
              "tracts": 322
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 15.7,
              "conf_low": 13.78,
              "estimate": 14.9,
              "grade": "C",
              "group": "Hispanic (any race)",
              "label": "Grade C",
              "tracts": 792
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 17.2,
              "conf_low": 14.08,
              "estimate": 15.72,
              "grade": "D",
              "group": "Hispanic (any race)",
              "label": "Grade D",
              "tracts": 331
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 9.94,
              "conf_low": 4.33,
              "estimate": 6.8,
              "grade": "A",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Asian",
              "label": "Grade A",
              "tracts": 37
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 12.5,
              "conf_low": 7.66,
              "estimate": 10.1,
              "grade": "B",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Asian",
              "label": "Grade B",
              "tracts": 159
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 14.48,
              "conf_low": 9.04,
              "estimate": 11.98,
              "grade": "C",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Asian",
              "label": "Grade C",
              "tracts": 313
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 14.19,
              "conf_low": 8.04,
              "estimate": 11.17,
              "grade": "D",
              "group": "Non-Hispanic Asian",
              "label": "Grade D",
              "tracts": 168
            }
          ],
          "id": "holc_by_group",
          "spec": {
            "colors": {
              "A": "holcA",
              "B": "holcB",
              "C": "holcC",
              "D": "holcD"
            },
            "facet": "group",
            "facetColumns": 2,
            "group": "grade",
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "legend": false,
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "tracts",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              0,
              30
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Denied share of decided applications (%)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "Denied share of decided home-purchase applications, 2024, by applicant group and HOLC grade of the tract, points on at least {fact:holc_min_group_tracts} tracts",
          "title": "The grade D minus grade A difference is {fact:holc_dgap_white} points for white applicants, and the intervals for Black and Hispanic applicants are too wide to say whether it differs",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "By applicant group"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Denied share of decided home-purchase applications, 2024, in tracts graded on the 1930s HOLC maps: by grade, as a difference from grade A under three adjustments, and by applicant group",
  "title": "Denial rates rise from {fact:holc_rate_a} in grade A tracts to {fact:holc_rate_d} in grade D tracts, and no grade differs detectably from grade A among tracts of the same city and the same tenth of the deprivation index",
  "type": "tabs",
  "width": "wide"
}