{
  "alt": "Line chart of three county-panel death rates relative to 2019, from 2019 to 2024. The overdose line rises to a peak in 2022 and falls in 2024 to a value still above 2019. The homicide line rises to a peak in 2021, a year earlier, and falls to about its 2019 level by 2024. The suicide line stays close to the 2019 level throughout. The 2024 points are open circles.",
  "caption": "Homicide peaks in 2021, a year before overdose, and is back near its 2019 level in 2024, when its interval includes the 2019 level. Overdose falls from 2022 but ends above its 2019 level, and suicide is nearly flat. Each point is the population-weighted mean of county rates divided by its 2019 value, with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties. Overdose is unintentional or undetermined-intent drug poisoning, so it is not WONDER's measure, and homicide and suicide count every method. The second view plots the rates.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 100,
      "n_units": 2977,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 19.9728,
      "rate_hi": 21.1814,
      "rate_lo": 18.7706,
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 131.939,
      "index_hi": 134.673,
      "index_lo": 129.143,
      "n_units": 3012,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 26.3519,
      "rate_hi": 27.7654,
      "rate_lo": 25.022,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 154.21,
      "index_hi": 158.388,
      "index_lo": 150.133,
      "n_units": 3045,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 30.8001,
      "rate_hi": 32.3143,
      "rate_lo": 29.3649,
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 154.732,
      "index_hi": 159.653,
      "index_lo": 149.968,
      "n_units": 3040,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 30.9043,
      "rate_hi": 32.4132,
      "rate_lo": 29.5058,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 150.066,
      "index_hi": 155.705,
      "index_lo": 144.733,
      "n_units": 3035,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 29.9725,
      "rate_hi": 31.3894,
      "rate_lo": 28.6185,
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "index": 112.047,
      "index_hi": 117.174,
      "index_lo": 107.353,
      "n_units": 3006,
      "provisional": true,
      "rate": 22.3789,
      "rate_hi": 23.4563,
      "rate_lo": 21.363,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 100,
      "n_units": 3027,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 5.79647,
      "rate_hi": 6.29224,
      "rate_lo": 5.32319,
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 127.86,
      "index_hi": 130.84,
      "index_lo": 124.857,
      "n_units": 3067,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 7.41137,
      "rate_hi": 8.06429,
      "rate_lo": 6.78121,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 135.165,
      "index_hi": 139.135,
      "index_lo": 131.212,
      "n_units": 3051,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 7.83478,
      "rate_hi": 8.55164,
      "rate_lo": 7.14133,
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 128.407,
      "index_hi": 131.973,
      "index_lo": 124.971,
      "n_units": 3069,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 7.44305,
      "rate_hi": 8.13078,
      "rate_lo": 6.80043,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 117.13,
      "index_hi": 120.703,
      "index_lo": 113.574,
      "n_units": 3063,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 6.78943,
      "rate_hi": 7.36874,
      "rate_lo": 6.2083,
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "index": 103.043,
      "index_hi": 106.133,
      "index_lo": 99.7779,
      "n_units": 3043,
      "provisional": true,
      "rate": 5.97288,
      "rate_hi": 6.45739,
      "rate_lo": 5.50568,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 100,
      "n_units": 2880,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 14.4248,
      "rate_hi": 14.9853,
      "rate_lo": 13.8386,
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 95.9691,
      "index_hi": 97.2108,
      "index_lo": 94.79,
      "n_units": 2903,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 13.8433,
      "rate_hi": 14.3838,
      "rate_lo": 13.291,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 100.322,
      "index_hi": 101.656,
      "index_lo": 99.0702,
      "n_units": 2888,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 14.4712,
      "rate_hi": 15.0389,
      "rate_lo": 13.8725,
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 102.658,
      "index_hi": 103.979,
      "index_lo": 101.255,
      "n_units": 2891,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 14.8081,
      "rate_hi": 15.3604,
      "rate_lo": 14.2305,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 101.816,
      "index_hi": 103.22,
      "index_lo": 100.439,
      "n_units": 2870,
      "provisional": false,
      "rate": 14.6867,
      "rate_hi": 15.2384,
      "rate_lo": 14.1171,
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "index": 100.696,
      "index_hi": 102.046,
      "index_lo": 99.3533,
      "n_units": 2870,
      "provisional": true,
      "rate": 14.5252,
      "rate_hi": 15.1099,
      "rate_lo": 13.9074,
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "panel_three_clocks",
  "notes": [
    "The panel's rates are CDC modeled estimates: a county with few deaths gets a modeled rate, and a county where the model is unstable gets none. A county enters a year when it has a stable rate that year. In 2019 that is {fact:p_od_n} counties for overdose, {fact:p_hm_n} for homicide and {fact:p_su_n} for suicide, out of {fact:p_n_file} counties in the file. Connecticut's counties are not in the file, and Puerto Rico is not included.",
    "Weights are WONDER's county populations of the year. Using only the {fact:p_od_nb} counties with a stable overdose rate in every year gives a 2022 overdose rate {fact:p_od_p22_bal} above 2019. 2024 is provisional.",
    "Rates are crude, not age-adjusted."
  ],
  "source": "CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence county file, 2019-2024, and CDC WONDER county populations; modeled estimates, population-weighted",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "2019 level",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 100
      },
      {
        "label": "First pandemic year",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2020
      }
    ],
    "bandSeries": [
      "Overdose",
      "Homicide",
      "Suicide"
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Alcohol-induced deaths": "alcohol",
      "Homicide": "homicide",
      "Overdose": "overdose",
      "Suicide": "suicide"
    },
    "hi": "index_hi",
    "hollow": "provisional",
    "lo": "index_lo",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "cause",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2019,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Year",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "index",
    "yDomain": [
      80,
      170
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Index (2019 = 100)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Mean of county death rates weighted by county population, relative to 2019 (2019 = 100), for overdose, homicide and suicide, counties with a stable modeled rate that year, United States, 2019 to 2024 (2024 provisional)",
  "title": "In CDC's modeled county panel the overdose rate peaked in 2022 at {fact:p_od_p22} above its 2019 level and the homicide rate in 2021 at {fact:p_hm_p21}, while the suicide rate stayed within {fact:p_su_dev} of its 2019 level",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "id": "index",
      "label": "Index, 2019 = 100"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Overdose is the highest line in every year, homicide the lowest. Each point is the population-weighted mean of county rates with a 95% interval from a bootstrap over counties.",
      "id": "rate",
      "label": "Deaths per 100,000",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "label": "First pandemic year",
            "type": "x-rule",
            "x": 2020
          }
        ],
        "hi": "rate_hi",
        "lo": "rate_lo",
        "y": "rate",
        "yDomain": [
          0,
          36
        ],
        "yLabel": "Deaths per 100,000 residents"
      },
      "title": "In the panel the population-weighted overdose rate was {fact:p_od_r19} per hundred thousand residents in 2019 and {fact:p_od_r22} in 2022, the homicide rate {fact:p_hm_r19} and {fact:p_hm_r21} in 2021, and the suicide rate {fact:p_su_r19} and {fact:p_su_r24} in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}