{
  "alt": "A figure with two tabs. The first is a line chart of overdose deaths per year from 2019 to 2024 for WONDER and for the panel: both rise to a peak in 2022 and fall afterward, with the WONDER line above the panel line and a gap of roughly constant height between them through 2023. The second is a table of deaths and rates in 2019 and 2022 for the two series and for the panel with the gap added back.",
  "caption": "The first tab plots overdose deaths per year in the two series, and the second tabulates the rises between 2019 and 2022. The panel counts a smaller set of deaths and its rise is the larger percentage, by {fact:rec_pts_xct} points outside Connecticut.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "overdose_two_sources",
  "notes": [
    "The files used here do not record intent, so the gap cannot be split here. The panel leaves out drug poisonings recorded as suicide or homicide, Connecticut, and the county-years CDC marks unstable, and it models the rates of counties with few deaths. Counties with a stable rate in 2019 hold {fact:rec_cover} of residents outside Connecticut.",
    "The panel's implied deaths use WONDER's county populations, so the two series share a denominator. The panel's 2024 values are provisional (open circles) and WONDER's 2024 counts are final.",
    "North Carolina amended many 2023 overdose death certificates after WONDER's final 2023 file, so WONDER's 2023 overdose counts for that state, and the 2023 overdose points built from them, are low."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER underlying cause of death, 2019-2024, and CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence county file, 2019-2024; crude rates, modeled estimates, population-weighted",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Line chart of two overdose death counts from 2019 to 2024. The WONDER line is above the panel line in every year, and the two rise together to a peak in 2022 and fall afterward. The shaded gap between them has about the same height from 2019 to 2023 and is narrower in 2024.",
          "caption": "The gap between the lines is {fact:rec_gap19} deaths in 2019 and {fact:rec_gap22} in 2022: deaths that WONDER counts and the panel's implied count does not. Both lines rise by about the same number of deaths from different bases, so the panel's rise is the larger percentage. The panel's deaths are the sum over counties of the modeled rate times WONDER's county population over one hundred thousand.",
          "data": [
            {
              "deaths": 69416,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2019
            },
            {
              "deaths": 64510.6,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2019
            },
            {
              "deaths": 90428,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2020
            },
            {
              "deaths": 85588.1,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2020
            },
            {
              "deaths": 105147,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2021
            },
            {
              "deaths": 100904,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2021
            },
            {
              "deaths": 106459,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2022
            },
            {
              "deaths": 101642,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2022
            },
            {
              "deaths": 103689,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2023
            },
            {
              "deaths": 99080.1,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2023
            },
            {
              "deaths": 78389,
              "provisional": false,
              "series": "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
              "year": 2024
            },
            {
              "deaths": 75033.4,
              "provisional": true,
              "series": "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent",
              "year": 2024
            }
          ],
          "id": "overdose_deaths_two_sources",
          "spec": {
            "annotations": [
              {
                "label": "First pandemic year",
                "type": "x-rule",
                "x": 2020
              }
            ],
            "colors": {
              "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut": "overdose",
              "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent": "total"
            },
            "dashed": [
              "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent"
            ],
            "gap": {
              "between": [
                "CDC WONDER, any intent, outside Connecticut",
                "CDC panel, unintentional or undetermined intent"
              ],
              "label": "Counted by WONDER and not by the panel"
            },
            "hollow": "provisional",
            "series": "series",
            "x": "year",
            "xDomain": [
              2019,
              2024
            ],
            "xLabel": "Year",
            "xTicks": "data",
            "y": "deaths",
            "yDomain": [
              0,
              120000
            ],
            "yFormat": {
              "digits": 0,
              "thousands": true
            },
            "yLabel": "Overdose deaths per year"
          },
          "subtitle": "Overdose deaths per year, CDC WONDER drug poisoning of any intent outside Connecticut and the deaths implied by the CDC panel's modeled county rates, 2019 to 2024 (the panel's 2024 values are provisional)",
          "title": "Both series add about the same number of overdose deaths from 2019 to 2022, {fact:rec_inc_w} in WONDER outside Connecticut and {fact:rec_inc_p} in the panel",
          "type": "line"
        },
        "label": "Deaths per year"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Table with five rows and the 2019 and 2022 values of deaths and rates. The WONDER rows show a rise in the rate; the panel row shows a larger rise; the gap row shows about the same number of deaths in both years; and the last row, the panel plus the 2019 gap, shows a rise close to WONDER's.",
          "caption": "The last row adds the gap in the fourth row, WONDER's count outside Connecticut minus the panel's, to the panel's deaths in both years. That brings the panel's rise close to WONDER's rise outside Connecticut. WONDER's rise over all states, {fact:w_od_p22}, includes Connecticut's {fact:rec_ct19} deaths in 2019. The rate rows divide deaths by WONDER's population of the counties covered.",
          "data": [
            {
              "d19": 70630,
              "d22": 107941,
              "dchg": 37311,
              "measure": "WONDER, all states and DC",
              "r19": 21.5178,
              "r22": 32.3867,
              "rise": 50.5113
            },
            {
              "d19": 69416,
              "d22": 106459,
              "dchg": 37043,
              "measure": "WONDER, outside Connecticut",
              "r19": 21.3802,
              "r22": 32.2934,
              "rise": 51.0437
            },
            {
              "d19": 64510.6,
              "d22": 101642,
              "dchg": 37131.6,
              "measure": "Panel, counties with a stable rate",
              "r19": 19.9728,
              "r22": 30.9043,
              "rise": 54.7317
            },
            {
              "d19": 4905.35,
              "d22": 4816.76,
              "dchg": -88.5897,
              "measure": "WONDER outside Connecticut minus the panel"
            },
            {
              "d19": 69416,
              "d22": 106548,
              "dchg": 37131.6,
              "measure": "Panel plus the 2019 gap in both years",
              "r19": 21.3802,
              "r22": 32.3203,
              "rise": 51.1694
            }
          ],
          "id": "overdose_rises_two_sources",
          "spec": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "measure",
                "label": "Series"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "d19",
                "label": "Deaths, 2019"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "d22",
                "label": "Deaths, 2022"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "signed": true,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "dchg",
                "label": "Change in deaths"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "r19",
                "label": "Rate, 2019"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "r22",
                "label": "Rate, 2022"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "rise",
                "label": "Rise in the rate (%)"
              }
            ]
          },
          "subtitle": "Overdose deaths and crude rates per 100,000 residents in 2019 and 2022, CDC WONDER and the CDC panel, and the rise in the rate between the two years",
          "title": "WONDER's overdose rate rose {fact:wx_od_p22} outside Connecticut and the panel's rose {fact:p_od_p22}; adding the 2019 gap back to the panel's deaths brings its rise to {fact:rec_add_p22}",
          "type": "table"
        },
        "label": "Rise in the rate"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Drug overdose deaths and crude rates, CDC WONDER (poisoning of any intent) and the CDC county panel (unintentional or undetermined intent), 2019 to 2024",
  "title": "WONDER's overdose rate rose {fact:wx_od_p22} from 2019 to 2022 outside Connecticut and the panel's rose {fact:p_od_p22}, a difference that matches a roughly constant number of deaths the panel does not count",
  "type": "tabs",
  "width": "wide"
}