{
  "alt": "County map of the United States shaded by the change in the modeled overdose death rate from 2022 to 2024. Most counties fall toward the low end of the key, meaning a lower rate in 2024. Counties toward the high end of the key, where the rate rose, are most common in the West and least common in the Northeast. Gray hatched counties have no deaths in either year or no stable rate in one of the years, and Connecticut is gray.",
  "caption": "In most counties the rate fell, which is the low end of the key. The share with a lower rate is {fact:tn_t1} in the least deprived third of counties, {fact:tn_t2} in the middle third and {fact:tn_t3} in the most deprived third, and it is lowest in the West and highest in the Northeast. Weighted by population the rate changed by {fact:tn_pooled} deaths per hundred thousand residents, and {fact:tn_popfell} of residents live in counties where it fell. Counties with the same rate in both years have no change and sit at the middle of the key. Gray hatched counties have no deaths in either year or no stable rate in one of the years.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "overdose_turn_map",
  "notes": [
    "The map covers the {fact:tn_n} of {fact:tn_stable} counties with a stable rate in both years that have at least one death in 2022 or 2024. The {fact:tn_zero_rate} counties with no deaths in either year have no direction of change; they are gray, with the reason in the tooltip, and they are left out of every share. They are concentrated in the most deprived third ({fact:tn_zero_t3} counties against {fact:tn_zero_t1} in the least deprived), so counting them as not lower would build a deprivation gradient out of counties with no deaths. {fact:tn_same} counties have the same positive rate in both years and count as not lower.",
    "CDC models the rate of a county with few deaths, so the change for such a county is a model's change. Among the {fact:tn_direct_n} counties with direct rates in both years, a rate lower in 2024 holds for {fact:tn_direct} of counties, against {fact:tn_modeled} of the {fact:tn_modeled_n} with a modeled rate in at least one year. {fact:adi_miss_t} counties have no Area Deprivation Index value and are left out of the thirds.",
    "The panel's 2024 values are provisional and may change as investigations are completed. The 20-death floor for maps of WONDER counts does not apply, since these are modeled rates. Thirds of deprivation rank the counties with a stable rate in both years by the mean Area Deprivation Index of their tracts.",
    "Connecticut's eight counties are gray because CDC's county file does not carry them. Puerto Rico is not drawn. Alaska is drawn."
  ],
  "source": "CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence county file, 2022 and 2024; modeled estimates, crude rates",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "legendLabel": "Change in the overdose death rate, 2022 to 2024 (deaths per 100,000 residents)",
    "payload": "overdose_turn.json",
    "scale": {
      "domain": [
        -30,
        0,
        30
      ],
      "ends": [
        "Rate fell",
        "Rate rose"
      ],
      "palette": "div",
      "type": "diverging"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "rate22",
      "rate24",
      "basis"
    ],
    "tooltipLabels": {
      "basis": "Basis of the two rates",
      "rate22": "Overdose deaths per 100,000, 2022",
      "rate24": "Overdose deaths per 100,000, 2024 (provisional)"
    },
    "value": "change",
    "valueFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    }
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the CDC panel's modeled overdose death rate per 100,000 residents from 2022 to 2024 (2024 provisional), counties with a stable rate in both years and at least one death",
  "title": "The modeled overdose death rate was lower in 2024 than in 2022 in {fact:tn_fell} of counties with any overdose deaths in 2022 or 2024, from {fact:tn_we} in the West to {fact:tn_ne} in the Northeast",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}