{
  "alt": "Three small line charts of the difference in change since 2019 between the most and least deprived thirds of counties, for overdose, alcohol-induced deaths and suicide. The overdose line is near zero in 2018, positive from 2020 to 2023 and falls below zero in 2024 with a wide interval. The alcohol-induced line is positive from 2020. The suicide line is already positive in 2018 and stays positive. Intervals are wide.",
  "caption": "The overdose line is positive from 2020 to 2023, which means the most deprived third gained more than the least deprived third, and it turns negative in 2024 with a wide interval. The alcohol-induced line is positive from 2020, and the 2018 point of each is close to zero. The suicide line is positive in 2018 as well as after 2019, so the difference between the thirds was as large in 2018 as in 2020 and 2019 is a low point. Each point is the coefficient on a year interacted with membership of the most deprived third, in a regression with county and year fixed effects, weighted by county population, with a 95% interval clustered by state.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 1.55987,
      "conf_low": -1.72828,
      "estimate": -0.0842062,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 4.82212,
      "conf_low": 0.370045,
      "estimate": 2.59608,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 9.26863,
      "conf_low": 1.3409,
      "estimate": 5.30476,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 9.19465,
      "conf_low": 1.02711,
      "estimate": 5.11088,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 7.74766,
      "conf_low": -0.871266,
      "estimate": 3.4382,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 2.63761,
      "conf_low": -7.75299,
      "estimate": -2.55769,
      "n_units": 587,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 0.458736,
      "conf_low": -0.894791,
      "estimate": -0.218027,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 1.98903,
      "conf_low": 0.162602,
      "estimate": 1.07581,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 2.77523,
      "conf_low": -0.171824,
      "estimate": 1.3017,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 2.5428,
      "conf_low": 0.0722092,
      "estimate": 1.3075,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 1.43914,
      "conf_low": -0.369538,
      "estimate": 0.534799,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "conf_high": 1.56386,
      "conf_low": -0.0334018,
      "estimate": 0.765228,
      "n_units": 415,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.30079,
      "conf_low": 0.28605,
      "estimate": 0.793418,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.67088,
      "conf_low": 0.241092,
      "estimate": 0.955985,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.78574,
      "conf_low": 0.368037,
      "estimate": 1.07689,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 2.15992,
      "conf_low": 0.6154,
      "estimate": 1.38766,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 2.41788,
      "conf_low": 1.05831,
      "estimate": 1.73809,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 2.16585,
      "conf_low": 0.759697,
      "estimate": 1.46277,
      "n_units": 477,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 4.48829,
      "conf_low": -1.25303,
      "estimate": 1.61763,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 9.35569,
      "conf_low": -0.291096,
      "estimate": 4.5323,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 7.59816,
      "conf_low": -0.00696427,
      "estimate": 3.7956,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 8.48996,
      "conf_low": -0.677953,
      "estimate": 3.906,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Overdose",
      "conf_high": 4.54727,
      "conf_low": -2.44748,
      "estimate": 1.0499,
      "n_units": 1757,
      "provisional": true,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "conf_high": 1.86011,
      "conf_low": -0.372332,
      "estimate": 0.743888,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "conf_high": 2.66131,
      "conf_low": -0.687347,
      "estimate": 0.986982,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "conf_high": 2.26834,
      "conf_low": -0.172174,
      "estimate": 1.04808,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "conf_high": 2.32664,
      "conf_low": -0.0730505,
      "estimate": 1.12679,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Homicide",
      "conf_high": 2.12605,
      "conf_low": -0.387944,
      "estimate": 0.869054,
      "n_units": 1828,
      "provisional": true,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "estimate": 0,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.43827,
      "conf_low": 0.145902,
      "estimate": 0.792085,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 2.03348,
      "conf_low": 0.356664,
      "estimate": 1.19507,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.65167,
      "conf_low": 0.160826,
      "estimate": 0.90625,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.92172,
      "conf_low": 0.53008,
      "estimate": 1.2259,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": false,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "cause": "Suicide",
      "conf_high": 1.78907,
      "conf_low": 0.319787,
      "estimate": 1.05443,
      "n_units": 1450,
      "provisional": true,
      "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "event_study_deprivation",
  "notes": [
    "The comparison keeps only the least and most deprived thirds, so the middle third is left out. A difference between two groups' changes is a difference-in-differences with a fixed characteristic and needs the groups to have moved alike without the pandemic; the 2018 coefficient is the only available check, and the suicide line fails it.",
    "The WONDER tab covers {fact:tw_od_n} counties in the most deprived third for overdose, {fact:tw_alc_n} for alcohol-induced deaths and {fact:tw_su_n} for suicide, with equal numbers in the least deprived third. The panel tab has no pre-period. The panel's 2024 values are provisional (open circles); WONDER's 2024 counts are final."
  ],
  "source": "CDC WONDER underlying cause of death, 2018-2024, and CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence county file, 2019-2024; crude rates, modeled estimates, population-weighted regressions",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      },
      {
        "label": "First pandemic year",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2020
      }
    ],
    "bandSeries": [
      "Overdose",
      "Alcohol-induced deaths",
      "Suicide",
      "Homicide"
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Alcohol-induced deaths": "alcohol",
      "Homicide": "homicide",
      "Overdose": "overdose",
      "Suicide": "suicide"
    },
    "facet": "cause",
    "facetColumns": 3,
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "hollow": "provisional",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "cause",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2018,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Year",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -9,
      10
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Gap in the change since 2019 (deaths per 100,000)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Difference in the change in the crude death rate since 2019 between the most deprived and the least deprived third of counties, deaths per 100,000 residents, counties whose count CDC WONDER publishes in every year, 2018 to 2024, errors clustered by state",
  "title": "From 2019 to 2022 the overdose rate rose {fact:eg_w_od_22} deaths per hundred thousand residents more in the most deprived third of counties with published counts than in the least deprived third, with no detectable gap in 2018",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "source": "CDC WONDER, counties with published counts in every year"
      },
      "id": "wonder",
      "label": "CDC WONDER, 2018 to 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The homicide intervals include zero in every year. The suicide line is positive in every year from 2020, and the panel has no pre-period, so the check that failed for suicide in WONDER cannot be run. Each point is the coefficient on a year interacted with membership of the most deprived third, in a regression with county and year fixed effects, weighted by county population, with a 95% interval clustered by state.",
      "filter": {
        "source": "CDC panel, counties with a stable rate in every year"
      },
      "id": "panel",
      "label": "CDC panel, 2019 to 2024",
      "spec": {
        "yDomain": [
          -9,
          10
        ]
      },
      "title": "In the modeled panel the overdose rate rose {fact:eg_p_od_22} deaths per hundred thousand residents more in the most deprived third than in the least deprived third from 2019 to 2022, an interval that reaches zero, and the suicide gap is positive in every year from 2020"
    }
  ],
  "width": "full"
}