{
  "alt": "Dot plot of standardized coefficients for eight county variables in three models. In the first model voter turnout has the largest civic coefficient, positive with an interval above zero. In the second model the voting and census coefficients sit near zero and percent Black is negative. In the third, census response and volunteering turn negative and economic connectedness is the largest positive coefficient.",
  "caption": "Turnout's coefficient falls to about zero when the county controls enter, the census coefficient has an interval that includes zero in the first two models, and economic connectedness stands apart once it is added. Each dot is a standardized coefficient with a 95% interval, from a weighted regression with errors clustered on state; the three models use the same counties.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 0.42,
      "conf_low": 0.058,
      "estimate": 0.239,
      "model": "Civic measures only",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Voter turnout"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.327,
      "conf_low": -0.007,
      "estimate": 0.16,
      "model": "Civic measures only",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Census self-response"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.127,
      "conf_low": -0.15,
      "estimate": -0.012,
      "model": "Civic measures only",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Civic groups per capita"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.253,
      "conf_low": -0.016,
      "estimate": 0.118,
      "model": "Civic measures only",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Volunteering group membership"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.161,
      "conf_low": -0.152,
      "estimate": 0.004,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Voter turnout"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.047,
      "conf_low": -0.212,
      "estimate": -0.083,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Census self-response"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.16,
      "conf_low": -0.103,
      "estimate": 0.028,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Civic groups per capita"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.091,
      "conf_low": -0.061,
      "estimate": 0.015,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Volunteering group membership"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.593,
      "conf_low": 0.238,
      "estimate": 0.415,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Log median household income"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.425,
      "conf_low": -0.608,
      "estimate": -0.517,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Percent Black"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.076,
      "conf_low": -0.158,
      "estimate": -0.041,
      "model": "Plus income, percent Black and poverty",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Poverty rate"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.101,
      "conf_low": -0.121,
      "estimate": -0.01,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Voter turnout"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.053,
      "conf_low": -0.256,
      "estimate": -0.155,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Census self-response"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.049,
      "conf_low": -0.146,
      "estimate": -0.049,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Civic groups per capita"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.094,
      "conf_low": -0.22,
      "estimate": -0.157,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Volunteering group membership"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.79,
      "conf_low": 0.467,
      "estimate": 0.628,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Economic connectedness"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.323,
      "conf_low": -0.053,
      "estimate": 0.135,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Log median household income"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.339,
      "conf_low": -0.48,
      "estimate": -0.409,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Percent Black"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.145,
      "conf_low": -0.074,
      "estimate": 0.036,
      "model": "Plus economic connectedness",
      "n_units": 2915,
      "term": "Poverty rate"
    }
  ],
  "id": "participation_and_connectedness",
  "notes": [
    "Every variable is a z-score using the Atlas's 2018 county population as the weight. The controls are the log of median household income, the percent Black and the percent below poverty from the ACS 2019-2023 tract file, averaged to counties; Connecticut drops out because the ACS tract file uses planning-region codes.",
    "Intervals use t distributions on the state clusters. These are partial associations among correlated county measures, and a coefficient can change sign when its neighbors change."
  ],
  "source": "County Health Rankings 2024, Social Capital Atlas 2022, Opportunity Atlas county outcomes (1978-1983 birth cohorts) and ACS 2019-2023 county aggregates; population-weighted by 2018 county population",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Civic measures only": "cat1",
      "Plus economic connectedness": "cat3",
      "Plus income, percent Black and poverty": "cat2"
    },
    "group": "model",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No association",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -0.8,
      1
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Standardized coefficient on county upward mobility",
    "y": "term"
  },
  "subtitle": "Standardized coefficients on the adult income rank of children from low-income families (born 1978 to 1983) in three county regressions, weighted by 2018 county population",
  "title": "Once income, race and poverty are in the model, voter turnout has a coefficient of {fact:voter_beta_b} on county mobility, and economic connectedness has {fact:ec_beta_c}",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "wide"
}