# Gun homicide and the causes of early death: report

Chapter 8.1 of ZIP Code Destiny, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Gun homicide and the causes of early death
- Label: The sliver
- Chapter: 8.1 (Part VIII, Early death; An American life)
- Question: How concentrated are gun homicides in a few neighborhoods, and which causes account for early death at each level of deprivation?
- Dek: Outside New York City, the tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of the deaths that CDC's rates imply for 2022 to 2024 and 9.5% of residents.
- Grain: neighborhoods
- Status: published
- Published: 2026-10-09
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - CDC injury and violence mapping. CDC firearm homicide rates for tract clusters, 2022 to 2024 (modeled estimates for 1 to 9 deaths, zero for none, direct rates for 10 or more), and the county file, 2021 to 2024; years: 2019-2024 for counties, 2022-2024 for tracts (data as of 2026-05-14); weights: ACS 2019-2023 residents of each cluster
  - American Community Survey. Total population of 2020 tracts, 2019-2023; years: 2019-2023 (5-year); weights: none (full count)
  - USALEEP life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth by tract, deaths in 2010 to 2015, 2020 tracts; years: 2010-2015; weights: 2020 tract population
  - Area Deprivation Index. Area Deprivation Index national rank, 2023, tracts rolled up to counties; years: 2023 release (version 4.0.1; built on ACS 2019-2023); weights: 2019-2023 tract population
  - County Health Rankings. County death rates for premature mortality (age-adjusted), suicide (crude and age-adjusted), overdose, homicide, motor-vehicle crashes and firearms (crude), 2024 release, with race-specific homicide and suicide rates and rural share; years: 2024 release; weights: county population
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026gunhomicideandcausesofearlydeath

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026gunhomicideandcausesofearlydeath,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Gun homicide and the causes of early death},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death},
  note = {In ZIP Code Destiny. Published 9 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| threshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate) | all deaths implied by the cluster rates | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 50% |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping | thr_half |
| share of residents in the highest-rate clusters that together hold half of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters ranked by mean annual rate; county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 9.5% | 95% CI 8.3% to 10.8% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping | nat_half |
| share of residents in clusters with zero recorded deaths in each of the three years (a rate of 0 from a count of 0); county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 30.7% | 95% CI 29.0% to 32.6% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping | nat_zero |

## Findings

The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of the deaths that CDC's rates imply for 2022 to 2024 outside New York City, and 9.5% (95% CI 8.3% to 10.8%) of residents. At the other end of the ranking, 30.7% (95% CI 29.0% to 32.6%) of residents live in clusters with no recorded firearm homicide in any year from 2022 to 2024. A rate for a state, a county or a city averages over both ends, and the neighborhood is where they separate.

This chapter follows that concentration down to Cook County, the county that holds Chicago and its suburbs, and then widens to the other kinds of early death. It changes grain once. The first four figures describe tract clusters, the unit in which CDC publishes neighborhood death rates. The last four describe counties, the finest grain at which County Health Rankings reports deaths from overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes. Neither grain describes individuals.

### Firearm homicide deaths concentrate in a small share of tract clusters

CDC's injury and violence dashboard publishes death rates for census tracts, but not for single tracts. It combines small neighboring tracts into clusters large enough to report a stable rate and repeats the cluster's rate on every member tract. The median tract belongs to a cluster of 5 tracts, and the largest cluster has 20. A cluster-year with a few deaths gets a modeled estimate with an interval, one with none gets a rate of zero, one with many gets a direct rate, and CDC withholds the rate when the model is unstable. The unit in this section is the cluster, and each of the 17,814 clusters in the national curve is counted once.

To draw the curve, rank every cluster from its highest to its lowest mean annual rate for 2022 to 2024, multiply each rate by the cluster's residents to get implied deaths, and accumulate residents and deaths down the ranking. Equal shares would follow the diagonal. The curve in Table 1 bends above it. The clusters that hold the highest-rate tenth of residents hold 51.3% (95% CI 48.1% to 54.4%) of implied deaths. Reaching 50% of deaths takes 9.5% (95% CI 8.3% to 10.8%) of residents, and reaching 75% takes 24.1% (95% CI 22.2% to 26.0%).

Table 1. The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of implied deaths and 9.5% of residents outside New York City

The interval around each share comes from resampling whole counties, so it describes which places are in the file. It leaves out the modeling error in CDC's rates. Redrawing every modeled rate from CDC's own interval, a separate check, shifts the estimate upward. The share of residents holding 50% of deaths comes out between 9.6% and 9.8%, above the estimate of 9.5% and inside the resampling interval.

Studies of crime incidents on street segments in several U.S. cities find that a small share of segments accounts for a large share of incidents, a regularity Weisburd calls the law of crime concentration.[1] Averaging over a cluster can only lower measured concentration, so the curve in Table 1 is a lower bound for what block-level rates would show if CDC published them.

Two groups of residents are not on the curve. New York City is left out because CDC's file records almost no deaths there, and the clusters where CDC withholds the rate in at least one year from 2022 to 2024 hold 4.7% of the remaining residents. The data for 2024 are provisional, and CDC withholds more rates for that year (455 clusters, against 312 in 2022).

The curve covers 308.7 million residents. Filling the withheld years from the count range CDC publishes for them puts the share of residents who hold 50% of deaths between 8.9% and 10.2%, so the result does not rest on the exclusion.

The file also undercounts deaths outside New York City. With the same residents on both sides, the deaths implied by the cluster rates come to 78.6% of what the county file implies for the same counties, so the curve describes how deaths are distributed and not how many there are.

The shortfall is uneven. In Essex County, New Jersey, and Suffolk County, Massachusetts, the clusters imply 7.3% and 8.7% of the county file's deaths, and in San Diego and Santa Clara counties, California, 27.6% and 28.1%. These are the counties where the clusters imply under 30% of a county-file toll of at least 15 deaths a year.

Dropping their clusters moves the share holding 50% of deaths from 9.5% to 9.6%.

### Counties differ in how steeply the curve bends

The same curve can be drawn inside one county. Table 2 shows it for the 8 counties with the most implied firearm homicide deaths a year. In Cook County, 50% of deaths sit with 10.5% (95% CI 9.1% to 12.2%) of residents. The share is larger in every other county shown, and in Shelby County, Tennessee, around Memphis, it reaches 24.4% (95% CI 20.4% to 29.3%). Harris County, Texas, around Houston, comes close, and its interval overlaps Shelby's.

Table 2. In Cook County the clusters holding 50% of firearm homicide deaths hold 10.5% of residents, against 24.4% in the county with the largest share

Each curve rests on the clusters with a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024, which is at least 80.2% of residents in every county shown and 87.7% in Cook County. A county line is not a neighborhood boundary. A county that includes a low-rate suburban ring holds more residents at the low end of the curve than a county whose line follows the city limits, so a comparison of the curves compares county definitions as well as places.

### Chicago, cluster by cluster

Table 3 maps the clusters of Cook County, with each tract carrying its cluster's rate. Of the 1,163 tracts with a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024, 24.2% sit in clusters with no recorded firearm homicide, and the highest cluster rate is 89 deaths per hundred thousand residents a year. Of the residents in the highest-rate tenth of clusters, 90.8% live in tracts south of the Loop, judged by tract centroid, and the tracts well north of the Loop sit at the low end of the rate range. The remaining 168 tracts are gray because CDC withholds the rate in at least one year or because no one lives there.

Table 3. In Cook County, 24.2% of tracts with an estimate sit in clusters with no recorded firearm homicide, while the highest cluster rate reaches 89 per hundred thousand residents

A cluster's rate averages over several tracts and over the years 2022 to 2024, so the highest figure on the map is a floor for the rate on the worst blocks and not a ceiling. The map describes clusters, and nothing on it describes a person who lives in one.

### The highest-rate tenths of Cook County are also its most deprived and shortest-lived

Rank Cook County residents by the firearm homicide rate of their cluster and cut the ranking into tenths (Table 4). Clusters with no recorded deaths hold 27.0% (95% CI 22.1% to 32.2%) of the 87.7% of residents who live in clusters with a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024, so the lowest two tenths and part of the third all have a rate of zero and are ordered at random.

The highest tenth lives in clusters with a mean rate of 60 (95% CI 56 to 65) deaths per hundred thousand residents a year and a mean Area Deprivation Index national rank of 74 (95% CI 71 to 78), on a scale where the highest rank is the most deprived. Life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015 is 71.7 (95% CI 71.0 to 72.4) years in that tenth and 81.2 (95% CI 80.7 to 81.7) years in the clusters with no recorded deaths, a gap of 9.5 (95% CI 8.6 to 10.4) years within one county. The ninth tenth sits with the tenth: its life expectancy and its deprivation rank both lie beyond the intervals of the other eight tenths.

Table 4. In Cook County, residents of the highest-rate tenth of clusters have a life expectancy of 71.7 years (deaths in 2010 to 2015), 9.5 fewer than residents of clusters with no recorded deaths

The life expectancy estimates come from USALEEP and cover deaths in 2010 to 2015, a decade before the firearm homicide rates. The comparison shows that the same places have high homicide rates and short lives. It does not say how much of the gap firearm homicide accounts for, and it describes places, not people. The tenths are formed on the rate itself, so the first tab shows how far apart the groups were sorted, and the other two tabs carry the information. The gradient of life expectancy across deprivation deciles for the whole country is in Chapter 8.4, Place and the length of a life (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/place-and-the-length-of-a-life), and Chapter 8.5, Violence and the life-expectancy gap (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/violence-and-the-life-expectancy-gap) estimates how much of the national gap homicide accounts for.

### Premature mortality rises with county deprivation

Firearm homicide is one of several ways to die young, and the others follow deprivation as well. County Health Rankings reports age-adjusted deaths of residents before age 75, pooled over 2019 to 2021 from National Center for Health Statistics records. Ranking counties by their Area Deprivation Index, the least deprived tenth of counties has 307 (95% CI 296 to 318) premature deaths per hundred thousand residents and the most deprived tenth has 701 (95% CI 660 to 740). Across 3,083 counties, the population-weighted correlation between county deprivation and premature mortality is +0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83).

Table 5. Premature mortality rises from 307 to 701 per hundred thousand residents across deciles of county deprivation

County Health Rankings is a different source from the CDC panel, at a coarser grain. Its rates are counts of deaths pooled over several years, and a county with fewer than 10 deaths from a cause in the window gets no rate (20 for premature mortality). A missing rate means too few deaths to report, not a rate of zero. Chapter 10.3, Suppressed counties in death data (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/suppressed-counties-in-death-data) covers what that does to death data.

### The mix of deaths differs between the least and most deprived fifths

Take four kinds of death: drug overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes. Adding their crude rates, which are deaths per hundred thousand residents with no age adjustment, gives a toll for a group of counties, and each kind's share of that toll is its place in the mix. The four overlap a little, because a suicide by drug poisoning is counted as both an overdose and a suicide, so the toll includes such a death in both of those shares. The 1,248 counties that publish all four rates hold 89.6% of county residents, and Table 6 sorts them into fifths of residents by county deprivation.

The toll is larger in the most deprived fifth than in the least deprived, 76 (95% CI 69 to 84) deaths per hundred thousand residents against 42 (95% CI 37 to 47), and the mix differs between those end fifths. Overdose is 51.0% (95% CI 46.9% to 57.6%) of the toll in the least deprived fifth and 43.6% (95% CI 38.4% to 48.2%) in the most deprived, a change of −7.4 percentage points (95% CI −15.5 percentage points to −1.3 percentage points).

Homicide rises from 8.8% (95% CI 5.9% to 10.2%) to 13.1% (95% CI 11.7% to 14.7%) of the toll (+4.3 percentage points (95% CI 2.2 percentage points to 7.5 percentage points)). Motor-vehicle crashes rise from 16.0% (95% CI 12.6% to 17.9%) to 21.4% (95% CI 18.4% to 24.6%) (+5.4 percentage points (95% CI 1.8 percentage points to 10.5 percentage points)).

Suicide holds a similar share in the end fifths, 24.2% (95% CI 21.6% to 29.5%) and 21.9% (95% CI 20.1% to 23.9%). The figure also shows the fifths in between, and the overdose and motor-vehicle shares do not follow a steady line across all five, so it supports a comparison of the two ends and no more.

Table 6. Overdose is 51.0% of the four-cause toll in the least deprived fifth of residents and 43.6% in the most, while motor-vehicle crashes go from 16.0% to 21.4%

The rates cover different windows: 2019 to 2021 for overdose, 2017 to 2021 for suicide, and 2015 to 2021 for homicide and motor-vehicle crashes. The mix therefore compares rates measured over different spans, and counties with few deaths have noisy rates. Overdose enters this chapter only in this mix, in the map of the highest-rate kind of death and in a cross-check against the CDC panel. The overdose maps and gradients are in Chapter 8.2, Overdose, alcohol and suicide (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/overdose-alcohol-and-suicide), and the overdose trend since 2018 is in Chapter 8.3, Mortality trends, 2018 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/mortality-trends-2018-2024).

### Rural share moves with suicide and motor-vehicle deaths, and homicide depends on the weighting

Table 7 correlates seven County Health Rankings measures with county deprivation and with the rural share of residents. The first two views weight counties by population and the last two count every county once. Weighted by population, all seven correlations with deprivation are positive. The largest are for premature mortality, child mortality and motor-vehicle crashes, and the interval excludes zero for every measure except the share of crash deaths that involve alcohol. The homicide rate has a correlation of +0.41 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.48) with county deprivation, and +0.49 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.55) when every county counts once.

Table 7. Homicide and other causes of early death are higher in more deprived counties, with a population-weighted correlation of +0.41 for homicide

On the rural-share views, suicide and motor-vehicle death rates are higher where more residents live outside urban areas. The population-weighted correlations are +0.53 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.60) and +0.66 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.72), and the unweighted ones are +0.37 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44) and +0.60 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.64). County deprivation and rural share are themselves correlated (+0.56 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.63)), so the deprivation and rural-share views overlap.

The homicide estimate depends on the weighting, −0.05 (95% CI −0.18 to 0.05) weighted by population and +0.25 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.35) counting every county once. Which counties enter matters for homicide. Only the 1,376 counties with enough homicides to publish a rate are in, and a county with few homicides gets none, so these counties are less rural than counties as a whole, with a mean rural share of 43.3% against 64.1%. Among the counties that report, the homicide rate is near zero against rural share when large counties dominate and modestly positive when every county counts equally. Neither estimate describes all counties, because the counties missing from the sample are the ones with the fewest homicides.

### Homicide and suicide rates differ by race in opposite directions

County Health Rankings also publishes rates for Black and white residents, neither group including anyone who identifies as Hispanic, in counties where a group has enough deaths to report. These are county rates averaged over the counties that report, and they are not national rates by race. County Health Rankings publishes the homicide rate as a crude rate and the suicide rate as an age-adjusted rate, so the homicide ratio below also carries any difference in age structure between the two groups. In the 486 counties that report both groups, the homicide rate is 27.3 (95% CI 23.8 to 31.8) deaths per hundred thousand Black residents and 2.8 (95% CI 2.5 to 3.2) per hundred thousand white residents, a ratio of 9.6 (95% CI 8.1 to 11.6).

The suicide rate runs the other way, 16.4 (95% CI 14.8 to 18.0) for white residents and 7.8 (95% CI 7.1 to 8.5) for Black residents in the 297 counties that report both, a ratio of 2.1 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.3). A county reports a group's rate only when the group has enough deaths, so the reporting counties are larger and less rural than the rest, and each comparison is between groups in the same counties. The ratio describes those counties. It leaves out Black residents of counties with too few deaths to report, and it says nothing about the risk to any one person.

### The kind of death with the highest rate differs by county

Table 8 labels each county by whichever of the four kinds of death has the highest crude rate there. Among the 1,248 counties that publish all four rates, overdose is highest in 829, suicide in 207, motor-vehicle crashes in 201 and homicide in 11. The gray counties lack at least one rate and are mostly small, so the map speaks for the labeled counties, which hold 89.6% of county residents, and not for the land they sit on.

Table 8. Overdose has the highest rate of the four causes in 829 of 1,248 counties, and homicide in only 11

The counties where homicide is highest are Dallas and Montgomery in Alabama; Crittenden, Jefferson and Mississippi in Arkansas; Bibb and Muscogee in Georgia; Caddo Parish in Louisiana; and Adams, Hinds and Yazoo in Mississippi. Non-Hispanic Black residents are a median 56.1% of residents in these counties and 7.1% across the labeled counties, which fits the racial gap in homicide rates above. The comparison describes county populations and says nothing about any individual.

County Health Rankings and the CDC injury panel both draw on the nation's death certificates, so their agreement checks the processing and not the underlying counts. Population-weighted correlations between the two county rates, with the panel's modeled estimate for 2021, run from +0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.90) for suicide to +0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.96) for drug overdose, which measures agreement between the two sources and not a gradient. Counting every county once, the suicide correlation falls to +0.64 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.71), so the agreement is lower when small counties count equally.

### What place-based evidence shows

Concentration makes it possible to aim programs at the places where violence is highest, and evaluations of such programs differ in design. A meta-analysis of quasi-experimental evaluations of focused deterrence, which pairs a warning to the people most involved in violence with offers of services, finds a moderate average reduction in crime in treated areas, with smaller estimates in evaluations that use stronger designs.[2] The evaluation of CeaseFire in Chicago compared most program sites with matched comparison areas and found shooting hot spots shrinking at most sites, with the decrease linked to the program at some of them.[3] Both designs compare treated areas with areas that were not assigned at random. A systematic review of Cure Violence evaluations, written by staff of Cure Violence Global who note that this presents a bias, reports reductions in most findings but statistical significance in a minority, with results that differ by site.[4] The box below reports a trial in which assignment was random.

> Causal evidence: A randomized test of remediating vacant lots (Cluster randomized controlled trial)
>
> In Philadelphia, Branas and colleagues randomly assigned vacant lots, grouped into clusters of neighboring lots, to remediation (cleaning, grading, planting grass and trees, and low fencing), to trash cleanup only, or to no treatment. Because assignment was random, differences in outcomes between treated and untreated clusters can be attributed to the treatment and not to which neighborhoods were treated. Police-reported gun assaults fell around treated lots compared with untreated lots, with the clearest reductions in neighborhoods below the poverty line, and residents near treated lots reported feeling safer.[5] The reduction across all neighborhoods was smaller.
>
> The trial tested a low-cost change to the built environment and not a violence prevention program, in one city. It does not show that the same change would lower gun violence elsewhere, or that any program aimed at concentrated violence works.

### Premature mortality rises with county deprivation under all four rankings

Over the 3,080 counties that have a premature mortality rate and all four rankings, the ADI baseline runs from 307 (95% CI 296 to 318) premature deaths per hundred thousand residents in the least deprived tenth of counties to 698 (95% CI 655 to 741) in the most deprived, with a rank correlation of +1.00 between tenth and rate (Table 9). The standardized index, which applies the ADI's coefficients after standardizing each measure, gives 280 (95% CI 270 to 291) and 650 (95% CI 574 to 723), with a correlation of +1.00. Ranked by median household income the tenths run from 291 (95% CI 284 to 300) to 680 (95% CI 647 to 709), and ranked by the bachelor's degree share from 297 (95% CI 282 to 315) to 627 (95% CI 597 to 656). Under each ranking the two ends differ and the rate rises steadily toward the deprived end, so none of the three alternatives changes the gradient under the book's rule (Chapter 9.1, How far one ranking goes (https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/how-far-one-ranking-goes)).

Table 9. The premature death rate is steadily worse toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

### What these data cannot show

The firearm homicide figures describe tract clusters, and CDC's rates for them are modeled estimates, so they say nothing about single tracts, blocks or people. The curves and the Cook County map average over clusters of neighboring tracts, which lowers measured concentration, and the cluster file's implied deaths fall short of the county file's, so the figures describe shares and not totals. New York City is absent, four more counties have clusters that imply a small share of the county file's deaths, and the clusters where CDC withholds a rate are left out, with more withheld for the provisional year 2024. The fill check bounds the last exclusion and cannot remove it.

Every comparison across places is ecological. The life expectancy of Cook County's highest-rate tenth comes from deaths in 2010 to 2015 and the rates from 2022 to 2024, so the data cannot say whether firearm homicide shortened these lives or whether the same conditions underlie both. County gradients and correlations describe counties, and the homicide and rural-share correlation differs with the weighting and depends on which counties report, so a correlation across counties says little about the people in them. The Area Deprivation Index understates deprivation in high-cost cities, and it is built from survey measures that overlap with several outcome measures.

County Health Rankings leaves out counties with few deaths, so the mix of deaths and the map of the highest-rate kind speak for the larger counties. The rates in those two figures are crude, so a county with an older population has a higher rate for the same risk, and the correlation figure mixes crude and age-adjusted measures, which its row labels state. The race-specific rates are a composite of reporting counties and not national rates, and the cross-check against the injury panel compares two compilations of the same death records. Outside the box above, nothing in this chapter supports a claim about what changes violence.

## Tables

### Table 1. The tract clusters with the highest firearm homicide rates hold 50% of implied deaths and 9.5% of residents outside New York City

Cumulative share of implied firearm homicide deaths against cumulative share of residents, tract clusters ranked from the highest to the lowest mean annual rate, 2022 to 2024, outside New York City

| conf_high | conf_low | pct_residents | series | share_deaths |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| n/a | n/a | 0 | Firearm homicide deaths | 0 |
| 15.02 | 12.36 | 1 | Firearm homicide deaths | 13.93 |
| 23.60 | 19.23 | 2 | Firearm homicide deaths | 21.70 |
| 29.75 | 24.60 | 3 | Firearm homicide deaths | 27.45 |
| 34.76 | 29.14 | 4 | Firearm homicide deaths | 32.20 |
| 39.03 | 33.12 | 5 | Firearm homicide deaths | 36.28 |
| 42.74 | 36.67 | 6 | Firearm homicide deaths | 39.89 |
| 46.09 | 39.89 | 7 | Firearm homicide deaths | 43.16 |
| 49.12 | 42.80 | 8 | Firearm homicide deaths | 46.10 |
| 51.87 | 45.55 | 9 | Firearm homicide deaths | 48.79 |
| 54.39 | 48.10 | 10 | Firearm homicide deaths | 51.31 |
| 56.71 | 50.48 | 11 | Firearm homicide deaths | 53.66 |
| 58.84 | 52.73 | 12 | Firearm homicide deaths | 55.87 |
| 60.89 | 54.85 | 13 | Firearm homicide deaths | 57.94 |
| 62.78 | 56.87 | 14 | Firearm homicide deaths | 59.89 |
| 64.60 | 58.77 | 15 | Firearm homicide deaths | 61.74 |
| 66.28 | 60.63 | 16 | Firearm homicide deaths | 63.49 |
| 67.85 | 62.36 | 17 | Firearm homicide deaths | 65.15 |
| 69.35 | 64.01 | 18 | Firearm homicide deaths | 66.73 |
| 70.79 | 65.59 | 19 | Firearm homicide deaths | 68.24 |
| 72.19 | 67.12 | 20 | Firearm homicide deaths | 69.68 |
| 73.50 | 68.57 | 21 | Firearm homicide deaths | 71.06 |
| 74.74 | 69.96 | 22 | Firearm homicide deaths | 72.38 |
| 75.92 | 71.31 | 23 | Firearm homicide deaths | 73.65 |
| 77.04 | 72.59 | 24 | Firearm homicide deaths | 74.85 |
| 78.11 | 73.83 | 25 | Firearm homicide deaths | 76.01 |
| 79.15 | 75.01 | 26 | Firearm homicide deaths | 77.12 |
| 80.16 | 76.16 | 27 | Firearm homicide deaths | 78.18 |
| 81.11 | 77.24 | 28 | Firearm homicide deaths | 79.21 |
| 82.04 | 78.29 | 29 | Firearm homicide deaths | 80.20 |
| 82.91 | 79.30 | 30 | Firearm homicide deaths | 81.16 |
| 83.78 | 80.28 | 31 | Firearm homicide deaths | 82.07 |
| 84.59 | 81.22 | 32 | Firearm homicide deaths | 82.96 |
| 85.42 | 82.13 | 33 | Firearm homicide deaths | 83.82 |
| 86.17 | 83.01 | 34 | Firearm homicide deaths | 84.65 |
| 86.92 | 83.87 | 35 | Firearm homicide deaths | 85.45 |
| 87.64 | 84.70 | 36 | Firearm homicide deaths | 86.22 |
| 88.31 | 85.50 | 37 | Firearm homicide deaths | 86.96 |
| 88.97 | 86.27 | 38 | Firearm homicide deaths | 87.68 |
| 89.60 | 87 | 39 | Firearm homicide deaths | 88.36 |
| 90.22 | 87.72 | 40 | Firearm homicide deaths | 89.02 |
| 90.81 | 88.41 | 41 | Firearm homicide deaths | 89.66 |
| 91.36 | 89.07 | 42 | Firearm homicide deaths | 90.27 |
| 91.90 | 89.71 | 43 | Firearm homicide deaths | 90.85 |
| 92.41 | 90.32 | 44 | Firearm homicide deaths | 91.41 |
| 92.91 | 90.90 | 45 | Firearm homicide deaths | 91.94 |
| 93.38 | 91.45 | 46 | Firearm homicide deaths | 92.45 |
| 93.84 | 91.99 | 47 | Firearm homicide deaths | 92.95 |
| 94.28 | 92.50 | 48 | Firearm homicide deaths | 93.42 |
| 94.71 | 93 | 49 | Firearm homicide deaths | 93.88 |
| 95.12 | 93.47 | 50 | Firearm homicide deaths | 94.32 |
| 95.52 | 93.93 | 51 | Firearm homicide deaths | 94.74 |
| 95.89 | 94.37 | 52 | Firearm homicide deaths | 95.15 |
| 96.26 | 94.79 | 53 | Firearm homicide deaths | 95.55 |
| 96.61 | 95.21 | 54 | Firearm homicide deaths | 95.93 |
| 96.95 | 95.60 | 55 | Firearm homicide deaths | 96.30 |
| 97.28 | 95.98 | 56 | Firearm homicide deaths | 96.66 |
| 97.59 | 96.36 | 57 | Firearm homicide deaths | 97 |
| 97.90 | 96.72 | 58 | Firearm homicide deaths | 97.33 |
| 98.19 | 97.06 | 59 | Firearm homicide deaths | 97.65 |
| 98.47 | 97.40 | 60 | Firearm homicide deaths | 97.96 |
| 98.75 | 97.71 | 61 | Firearm homicide deaths | 98.25 |
| 99 | 98.02 | 62 | Firearm homicide deaths | 98.52 |
| 99.23 | 98.32 | 63 | Firearm homicide deaths | 98.79 |
| 99.44 | 98.59 | 64 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.04 |
| 99.64 | 98.85 | 65 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.27 |
| 99.80 | 99.10 | 66 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.48 |
| 99.95 | 99.32 | 67 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.67 |
| 100 | 99.53 | 68 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.84 |
| 100 | 99.72 | 69 | Firearm homicide deaths | 99.97 |
| 100 | 99.88 | 70 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 71 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 72 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 73 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 74 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 75 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 76 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 77 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 78 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 79 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 80 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 81 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 82 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 83 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 84 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 85 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 86 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 87 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 88 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 89 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 90 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 91 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 92 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 93 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 94 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 95 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 96 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 97 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 98 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 99 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 100 | Firearm homicide deaths | 100 |
| n/a | n/a | 0 | Equal shares | 0 |
| n/a | n/a | 1 | Equal shares | 1 |
| n/a | n/a | 2 | Equal shares | 2 |
| n/a | n/a | 3 | Equal shares | 3 |
| n/a | n/a | 4 | Equal shares | 4 |
| n/a | n/a | 5 | Equal shares | 5 |
| n/a | n/a | 6 | Equal shares | 6 |
| n/a | n/a | 7 | Equal shares | 7 |
| n/a | n/a | 8 | Equal shares | 8 |
| n/a | n/a | 9 | Equal shares | 9 |
| n/a | n/a | 10 | Equal shares | 10 |
| n/a | n/a | 11 | Equal shares | 11 |
| n/a | n/a | 12 | Equal shares | 12 |
| n/a | n/a | 13 | Equal shares | 13 |
| n/a | n/a | 14 | Equal shares | 14 |
| n/a | n/a | 15 | Equal shares | 15 |
| n/a | n/a | 16 | Equal shares | 16 |
| n/a | n/a | 17 | Equal shares | 17 |
| n/a | n/a | 18 | Equal shares | 18 |
| n/a | n/a | 19 | Equal shares | 19 |
| n/a | n/a | 20 | Equal shares | 20 |
| n/a | n/a | 21 | Equal shares | 21 |
| n/a | n/a | 22 | Equal shares | 22 |
| n/a | n/a | 23 | Equal shares | 23 |
| n/a | n/a | 24 | Equal shares | 24 |
| n/a | n/a | 25 | Equal shares | 25 |
| n/a | n/a | 26 | Equal shares | 26 |
| n/a | n/a | 27 | Equal shares | 27 |
| n/a | n/a | 28 | Equal shares | 28 |
| n/a | n/a | 29 | Equal shares | 29 |
| n/a | n/a | 30 | Equal shares | 30 |
| n/a | n/a | 31 | Equal shares | 31 |
| n/a | n/a | 32 | Equal shares | 32 |
| n/a | n/a | 33 | Equal shares | 33 |
| n/a | n/a | 34 | Equal shares | 34 |
| n/a | n/a | 35 | Equal shares | 35 |
| n/a | n/a | 36 | Equal shares | 36 |
| n/a | n/a | 37 | Equal shares | 37 |
| n/a | n/a | 38 | Equal shares | 38 |
| n/a | n/a | 39 | Equal shares | 39 |
| n/a | n/a | 40 | Equal shares | 40 |
| n/a | n/a | 41 | Equal shares | 41 |
| n/a | n/a | 42 | Equal shares | 42 |
| n/a | n/a | 43 | Equal shares | 43 |
| n/a | n/a | 44 | Equal shares | 44 |
| n/a | n/a | 45 | Equal shares | 45 |
| n/a | n/a | 46 | Equal shares | 46 |
| n/a | n/a | 47 | Equal shares | 47 |
| n/a | n/a | 48 | Equal shares | 48 |
| n/a | n/a | 49 | Equal shares | 49 |
| n/a | n/a | 50 | Equal shares | 50 |
| n/a | n/a | 51 | Equal shares | 51 |
| n/a | n/a | 52 | Equal shares | 52 |
| n/a | n/a | 53 | Equal shares | 53 |
| n/a | n/a | 54 | Equal shares | 54 |
| n/a | n/a | 55 | Equal shares | 55 |
| n/a | n/a | 56 | Equal shares | 56 |
| n/a | n/a | 57 | Equal shares | 57 |
| n/a | n/a | 58 | Equal shares | 58 |
| n/a | n/a | 59 | Equal shares | 59 |
| n/a | n/a | 60 | Equal shares | 60 |
| n/a | n/a | 61 | Equal shares | 61 |
| n/a | n/a | 62 | Equal shares | 62 |
| n/a | n/a | 63 | Equal shares | 63 |
| n/a | n/a | 64 | Equal shares | 64 |
| n/a | n/a | 65 | Equal shares | 65 |
| n/a | n/a | 66 | Equal shares | 66 |
| n/a | n/a | 67 | Equal shares | 67 |
| n/a | n/a | 68 | Equal shares | 68 |
| n/a | n/a | 69 | Equal shares | 69 |
| n/a | n/a | 70 | Equal shares | 70 |
| n/a | n/a | 71 | Equal shares | 71 |
| n/a | n/a | 72 | Equal shares | 72 |
| n/a | n/a | 73 | Equal shares | 73 |
| n/a | n/a | 74 | Equal shares | 74 |
| n/a | n/a | 75 | Equal shares | 75 |
| n/a | n/a | 76 | Equal shares | 76 |
| n/a | n/a | 77 | Equal shares | 77 |
| n/a | n/a | 78 | Equal shares | 78 |
| n/a | n/a | 79 | Equal shares | 79 |
| n/a | n/a | 80 | Equal shares | 80 |
| n/a | n/a | 81 | Equal shares | 81 |
| n/a | n/a | 82 | Equal shares | 82 |
| n/a | n/a | 83 | Equal shares | 83 |
| n/a | n/a | 84 | Equal shares | 84 |
| n/a | n/a | 85 | Equal shares | 85 |
| n/a | n/a | 86 | Equal shares | 86 |
| n/a | n/a | 87 | Equal shares | 87 |
| n/a | n/a | 88 | Equal shares | 88 |
| n/a | n/a | 89 | Equal shares | 89 |
| n/a | n/a | 90 | Equal shares | 90 |
| n/a | n/a | 91 | Equal shares | 91 |
| n/a | n/a | 92 | Equal shares | 92 |
| n/a | n/a | 93 | Equal shares | 93 |
| n/a | n/a | 94 | Equal shares | 94 |
| n/a | n/a | 95 | Equal shares | 95 |
| n/a | n/a | 96 | Equal shares | 96 |
| n/a | n/a | 97 | Equal shares | 97 |
| n/a | n/a | 98 | Equal shares | 98 |
| n/a | n/a | 99 | Equal shares | 99 |
| n/a | n/a | 100 | Equal shares | 100 |

Note: A cluster is a group of neighboring tracts for which CDC publishes one rate, repeated on each member tract; the median tract belongs to a cluster of 5 tracts and the largest cluster has 20. The curve counts each of the 17,814 clusters once, so its unit is the cluster, not the tract.

Note: Left out: New York City, where CDC records almost no deaths in this file, and the clusters where CDC withholds the rate in at least one year from 2022 to 2024 (4.7% of residents outside New York City). The data for 2024 are provisional, and CDC withholds more rates for that year (455 clusters, against 312 in 2022). Filling the withheld years from the published count range gives between 8.9% and 10.2% of residents holding 50% of deaths.

Note: Deaths are each cluster's annual rate times its residents, averaged over the three years. With the same residents on both sides they come to 78.6% of the deaths the county file implies for the same counties, so the curve describes shares and not totals. The shortfall is uneven: the clusters imply 7.3% of the county file's deaths in Essex County, New Jersey, 8.7% in Suffolk County, Massachusetts, 27.6% in San Diego County, California, and 28.1% in Santa Clara County, California, the counties where they imply under 30% of a county-file toll of at least 15 deaths a year. Dropping the clusters of those four counties moves the share holding 50% of deaths to 9.6%.

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that draws whole counties with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note). They describe which places are in the file and do not include the modeling error in CDC's rates. Puerto Rico is absent from the tract file.

Source: CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence, tract file, firearm homicide, 2022-2024; modeled estimates for tract clusters; ACS 2019-2023 population

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/national_concentration.json

### Table 2. In Cook County the clusters holding 50% of firearm homicide deaths hold 10.5% of residents, against 24.4% in the county with the largest share

Cumulative share of implied firearm homicide deaths against cumulative share of residents, tract clusters ranked from the highest rate, the counties with the most implied deaths, 2022 to 2024

| conf_high | conf_low | county | pct_residents | share_deaths |
| ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: |
| n/a | n/a | Cook County, IL | 0 | 0 |
| 8.22 | 5.76 | Cook County, IL | 1 | 6.98 |
| 15.40 | 10.93 | Cook County, IL | 2 | 13.07 |
| 21.47 | 15.61 | Cook County, IL | 3 | 18.45 |
| 26.99 | 19.96 | Cook County, IL | 4 | 23.18 |
| 32.16 | 24.05 | Cook County, IL | 5 | 27.79 |
| 36.99 | 28.03 | Cook County, IL | 6 | 32.23 |
| 41.37 | 31.92 | Cook County, IL | 7 | 36.51 |
| 45.56 | 35.67 | Cook County, IL | 8 | 40.57 |
| 49.53 | 39.28 | Cook County, IL | 9 | 44.45 |
| 52.93 | 42.85 | Cook County, IL | 10 | 48.15 |
| 56.01 | 46.28 | Cook County, IL | 11 | 51.48 |
| 58.85 | 49.41 | Cook County, IL | 12 | 54.47 |
| 61.40 | 52.16 | Cook County, IL | 13 | 57.12 |
| 63.77 | 54.80 | Cook County, IL | 14 | 59.59 |
| 65.94 | 57.09 | Cook County, IL | 15 | 61.75 |
| 67.92 | 59.10 | Cook County, IL | 16 | 63.71 |
| 69.69 | 61.04 | Cook County, IL | 17 | 65.47 |
| 71.37 | 62.79 | Cook County, IL | 18 | 67.16 |
| 72.95 | 64.43 | Cook County, IL | 19 | 68.76 |
| 74.46 | 66.01 | Cook County, IL | 20 | 70.28 |
| 75.92 | 67.53 | Cook County, IL | 21 | 71.76 |
| 77.36 | 69.03 | Cook County, IL | 22 | 73.23 |
| 78.77 | 70.47 | Cook County, IL | 23 | 74.65 |
| 80.10 | 71.84 | Cook County, IL | 24 | 76.04 |
| 81.34 | 73.21 | Cook County, IL | 25 | 77.37 |
| 82.50 | 74.57 | Cook County, IL | 26 | 78.68 |
| 83.61 | 75.87 | Cook County, IL | 27 | 79.91 |
| 84.69 | 77.14 | Cook County, IL | 28 | 81.10 |
| 85.74 | 78.35 | Cook County, IL | 29 | 82.23 |
| 86.75 | 79.46 | Cook County, IL | 30 | 83.32 |
| 87.59 | 80.64 | Cook County, IL | 31 | 84.38 |
| 88.36 | 81.69 | Cook County, IL | 32 | 85.37 |
| 89.13 | 82.73 | Cook County, IL | 33 | 86.28 |
| 89.83 | 83.75 | Cook County, IL | 34 | 87.13 |
| 90.49 | 84.75 | Cook County, IL | 35 | 87.94 |
| 91.06 | 85.61 | Cook County, IL | 36 | 88.70 |
| 91.65 | 86.49 | Cook County, IL | 37 | 89.39 |
| 92.21 | 87.28 | Cook County, IL | 38 | 90.03 |
| 92.76 | 88.01 | Cook County, IL | 39 | 90.64 |
| 93.27 | 88.68 | Cook County, IL | 40 | 91.23 |
| 93.76 | 89.36 | Cook County, IL | 41 | 91.77 |
| 94.21 | 89.98 | Cook County, IL | 42 | 92.27 |
| 94.64 | 90.57 | Cook County, IL | 43 | 92.75 |
| 95.06 | 91.16 | Cook County, IL | 44 | 93.22 |
| 95.41 | 91.67 | Cook County, IL | 45 | 93.68 |
| 95.76 | 92.21 | Cook County, IL | 46 | 94.12 |
| 96.10 | 92.69 | Cook County, IL | 47 | 94.56 |
| 96.40 | 93.16 | Cook County, IL | 48 | 94.97 |
| 96.70 | 93.60 | Cook County, IL | 49 | 95.36 |
| 96.97 | 94.03 | Cook County, IL | 50 | 95.72 |
| n/a | n/a | Wayne County, MI | 0 | 0 |
| 5.45 | 3.32 | Wayne County, MI | 1 | 4.42 |
| 10.36 | 6.53 | Wayne County, MI | 2 | 8.33 |
| 15.01 | 9.61 | Wayne County, MI | 3 | 12.07 |
| 19.25 | 12.63 | Wayne County, MI | 4 | 15.75 |
| 23.38 | 15.57 | Wayne County, MI | 5 | 19.30 |
| 27.12 | 18.32 | Wayne County, MI | 6 | 22.48 |
| 30.77 | 21.03 | Wayne County, MI | 7 | 25.55 |
| 34.17 | 23.57 | Wayne County, MI | 8 | 28.45 |
| 37.52 | 26.02 | Wayne County, MI | 9 | 31.31 |
| 40.80 | 28.41 | Wayne County, MI | 10 | 34.05 |
| 43.96 | 30.78 | Wayne County, MI | 11 | 36.77 |
| 46.93 | 33.10 | Wayne County, MI | 12 | 39.48 |
| 49.86 | 35.42 | Wayne County, MI | 13 | 42.17 |
| 52.68 | 37.70 | Wayne County, MI | 14 | 44.76 |
| 55.44 | 39.93 | Wayne County, MI | 15 | 47.23 |
| 57.91 | 42.11 | Wayne County, MI | 16 | 49.67 |
| 60.30 | 44.21 | Wayne County, MI | 17 | 52.05 |
| 62.45 | 46.37 | Wayne County, MI | 18 | 54.42 |
| 64.54 | 48.51 | Wayne County, MI | 19 | 56.70 |
| 66.62 | 50.64 | Wayne County, MI | 20 | 58.95 |
| 68.77 | 52.64 | Wayne County, MI | 21 | 61.06 |
| 70.64 | 54.49 | Wayne County, MI | 22 | 63.03 |
| 72.33 | 56.47 | Wayne County, MI | 23 | 64.82 |
| 74.12 | 58.30 | Wayne County, MI | 24 | 66.54 |
| 75.73 | 60.19 | Wayne County, MI | 25 | 68.23 |
| 77.31 | 62.04 | Wayne County, MI | 26 | 69.91 |
| 78.91 | 63.69 | Wayne County, MI | 27 | 71.59 |
| 80.38 | 65.26 | Wayne County, MI | 28 | 73.26 |
| 81.69 | 66.93 | Wayne County, MI | 29 | 74.80 |
| 82.88 | 68.46 | Wayne County, MI | 30 | 76.26 |
| 83.98 | 69.95 | Wayne County, MI | 31 | 77.60 |
| 84.98 | 71.43 | Wayne County, MI | 32 | 78.85 |
| 86 | 72.78 | Wayne County, MI | 33 | 80.05 |
| 86.84 | 74.14 | Wayne County, MI | 34 | 81.21 |
| 87.63 | 75.47 | Wayne County, MI | 35 | 82.36 |
| 88.33 | 76.66 | Wayne County, MI | 36 | 83.39 |
| 88.95 | 77.89 | Wayne County, MI | 37 | 84.38 |
| 89.65 | 79.07 | Wayne County, MI | 38 | 85.31 |
| 90.30 | 80.17 | Wayne County, MI | 39 | 86.18 |
| 90.87 | 81.41 | Wayne County, MI | 40 | 87.03 |
| 91.43 | 82.47 | Wayne County, MI | 41 | 87.88 |
| 91.95 | 83.43 | Wayne County, MI | 42 | 88.60 |
| 92.46 | 84.37 | Wayne County, MI | 43 | 89.27 |
| 92.93 | 85.28 | Wayne County, MI | 44 | 89.88 |
| 93.36 | 86.07 | Wayne County, MI | 45 | 90.45 |
| 93.77 | 86.91 | Wayne County, MI | 46 | 90.98 |
| 94.19 | 87.69 | Wayne County, MI | 47 | 91.47 |
| 94.58 | 88.41 | Wayne County, MI | 48 | 91.94 |
| 94.89 | 89.01 | Wayne County, MI | 49 | 92.40 |
| 95.19 | 89.62 | Wayne County, MI | 50 | 92.85 |
| n/a | n/a | Los Angeles County, CA | 0 | 0 |
| 6.11 | 4.77 | Los Angeles County, CA | 1 | 5.48 |
| 11.12 | 8.79 | Los Angeles County, CA | 2 | 10.10 |
| 15.42 | 12.28 | Los Angeles County, CA | 3 | 13.96 |
| 19.22 | 15.45 | Los Angeles County, CA | 4 | 17.37 |
| 22.58 | 18.34 | Los Angeles County, CA | 5 | 20.47 |
| 25.66 | 21.06 | Los Angeles County, CA | 6 | 23.36 |
| 28.49 | 23.61 | Los Angeles County, CA | 7 | 26.08 |
| 31.14 | 26 | Los Angeles County, CA | 8 | 28.59 |
| 33.62 | 28.29 | Los Angeles County, CA | 9 | 30.96 |
| 35.94 | 30.54 | Los Angeles County, CA | 10 | 33.24 |
| 38.15 | 32.68 | Los Angeles County, CA | 11 | 35.44 |
| 40.28 | 34.78 | Los Angeles County, CA | 12 | 37.56 |
| 42.38 | 36.79 | Los Angeles County, CA | 13 | 39.63 |
| 44.42 | 38.78 | Los Angeles County, CA | 14 | 41.65 |
| 46.40 | 40.73 | Los Angeles County, CA | 15 | 43.59 |
| 48.34 | 42.57 | Los Angeles County, CA | 16 | 45.48 |
| 50.18 | 44.39 | Los Angeles County, CA | 17 | 47.34 |
| 52.01 | 46.20 | Los Angeles County, CA | 18 | 49.16 |
| 53.79 | 47.98 | Los Angeles County, CA | 19 | 50.90 |
| 55.54 | 49.70 | Los Angeles County, CA | 20 | 52.62 |
| 57.24 | 51.36 | Los Angeles County, CA | 21 | 54.31 |
| 58.85 | 53.02 | Los Angeles County, CA | 22 | 55.96 |
| 60.48 | 54.65 | Los Angeles County, CA | 23 | 57.59 |
| 62.06 | 56.25 | Los Angeles County, CA | 24 | 59.17 |
| 63.56 | 57.77 | Los Angeles County, CA | 25 | 60.71 |
| 65.03 | 59.36 | Los Angeles County, CA | 26 | 62.21 |
| 66.46 | 60.84 | Los Angeles County, CA | 27 | 63.67 |
| 67.87 | 62.26 | Los Angeles County, CA | 28 | 65.08 |
| 69.21 | 63.67 | Los Angeles County, CA | 29 | 66.47 |
| 70.54 | 65.04 | Los Angeles County, CA | 30 | 67.81 |
| 71.83 | 66.37 | Los Angeles County, CA | 31 | 69.11 |
| 73.12 | 67.68 | Los Angeles County, CA | 32 | 70.38 |
| 74.33 | 68.95 | Los Angeles County, CA | 33 | 71.63 |
| 75.52 | 70.17 | Los Angeles County, CA | 34 | 72.85 |
| 76.69 | 71.38 | Los Angeles County, CA | 35 | 74.04 |
| 77.82 | 72.57 | Los Angeles County, CA | 36 | 75.21 |
| 78.93 | 73.73 | Los Angeles County, CA | 37 | 76.34 |
| 79.96 | 74.85 | Los Angeles County, CA | 38 | 77.44 |
| 80.98 | 75.98 | Los Angeles County, CA | 39 | 78.51 |
| 81.99 | 77.09 | Los Angeles County, CA | 40 | 79.55 |
| 82.96 | 78.15 | Los Angeles County, CA | 41 | 80.56 |
| 83.89 | 79.17 | Los Angeles County, CA | 42 | 81.54 |
| 84.78 | 80.14 | Los Angeles County, CA | 43 | 82.50 |
| 85.65 | 81.10 | Los Angeles County, CA | 44 | 83.43 |
| 86.47 | 82.06 | Los Angeles County, CA | 45 | 84.33 |
| 87.27 | 82.96 | Los Angeles County, CA | 46 | 85.19 |
| 88.01 | 83.83 | Los Angeles County, CA | 47 | 86.02 |
| 88.70 | 84.69 | Los Angeles County, CA | 48 | 86.81 |
| 89.36 | 85.52 | Los Angeles County, CA | 49 | 87.55 |
| 89.99 | 86.29 | Los Angeles County, CA | 50 | 88.24 |
| n/a | n/a | Maricopa County, AZ | 0 | 0 |
| 5.14 | 3.39 | Maricopa County, AZ | 1 | 4.36 |
| 9.34 | 6.49 | Maricopa County, AZ | 2 | 7.95 |
| 12.92 | 9.36 | Maricopa County, AZ | 3 | 11.20 |
| 16.15 | 12.07 | Maricopa County, AZ | 4 | 14.14 |
| 19.20 | 14.71 | Maricopa County, AZ | 5 | 16.94 |
| 22.18 | 17.25 | Maricopa County, AZ | 6 | 19.62 |
| 24.99 | 19.73 | Maricopa County, AZ | 7 | 22.27 |
| 27.70 | 22.20 | Maricopa County, AZ | 8 | 24.85 |
| 30.27 | 24.55 | Maricopa County, AZ | 9 | 27.40 |
| 32.76 | 26.90 | Maricopa County, AZ | 10 | 29.87 |
| 35.28 | 29.17 | Maricopa County, AZ | 11 | 32.24 |
| 37.64 | 31.32 | Maricopa County, AZ | 12 | 34.51 |
| 39.95 | 33.43 | Maricopa County, AZ | 13 | 36.70 |
| 42.14 | 35.45 | Maricopa County, AZ | 14 | 38.81 |
| 44.20 | 37.44 | Maricopa County, AZ | 15 | 40.82 |
| 46.26 | 39.35 | Maricopa County, AZ | 16 | 42.80 |
| 48.23 | 41.27 | Maricopa County, AZ | 17 | 44.73 |
| 50.15 | 43.05 | Maricopa County, AZ | 18 | 46.59 |
| 51.93 | 44.73 | Maricopa County, AZ | 19 | 48.43 |
| 53.70 | 46.44 | Maricopa County, AZ | 20 | 50.17 |
| 55.44 | 48.13 | Maricopa County, AZ | 21 | 51.84 |
| 57.05 | 49.75 | Maricopa County, AZ | 22 | 53.42 |
| 58.70 | 51.29 | Maricopa County, AZ | 23 | 54.99 |
| 60.25 | 52.79 | Maricopa County, AZ | 24 | 56.54 |
| 61.81 | 54.30 | Maricopa County, AZ | 25 | 58.06 |
| 63.31 | 55.84 | Maricopa County, AZ | 26 | 59.54 |
| 64.80 | 57.25 | Maricopa County, AZ | 27 | 61.01 |
| 66.25 | 58.69 | Maricopa County, AZ | 28 | 62.46 |
| 67.64 | 60.06 | Maricopa County, AZ | 29 | 63.89 |
| 69 | 61.48 | Maricopa County, AZ | 30 | 65.28 |
| 70.35 | 62.84 | Maricopa County, AZ | 31 | 66.63 |
| 71.58 | 64.22 | Maricopa County, AZ | 32 | 67.96 |
| 72.79 | 65.48 | Maricopa County, AZ | 33 | 69.24 |
| 74.02 | 66.74 | Maricopa County, AZ | 34 | 70.49 |
| 75.17 | 68.01 | Maricopa County, AZ | 35 | 71.70 |
| 76.36 | 69.22 | Maricopa County, AZ | 36 | 72.87 |
| 77.52 | 70.39 | Maricopa County, AZ | 37 | 74.01 |
| 78.60 | 71.55 | Maricopa County, AZ | 38 | 75.11 |
| 79.66 | 72.68 | Maricopa County, AZ | 39 | 76.21 |
| 80.71 | 73.76 | Maricopa County, AZ | 40 | 77.27 |
| 81.73 | 74.88 | Maricopa County, AZ | 41 | 78.29 |
| 82.68 | 75.97 | Maricopa County, AZ | 42 | 79.30 |
| 83.63 | 76.95 | Maricopa County, AZ | 43 | 80.29 |
| 84.51 | 77.99 | Maricopa County, AZ | 44 | 81.24 |
| 85.36 | 78.99 | Maricopa County, AZ | 45 | 82.17 |
| 86.25 | 79.97 | Maricopa County, AZ | 46 | 83.10 |
| 87.10 | 80.89 | Maricopa County, AZ | 47 | 84.01 |
| 87.94 | 81.79 | Maricopa County, AZ | 48 | 84.89 |
| 88.67 | 82.69 | Maricopa County, AZ | 49 | 85.74 |
| 89.43 | 83.59 | Maricopa County, AZ | 50 | 86.57 |
| n/a | n/a | Dallas County, TX | 0 | 0 |
| 7.67 | 3.10 | Dallas County, TX | 1 | 5.88 |
| 13.39 | 6.14 | Dallas County, TX | 2 | 9.17 |
| 17.35 | 9.14 | Dallas County, TX | 3 | 12.39 |
| 20.46 | 12.12 | Dallas County, TX | 4 | 15.56 |
| 23.48 | 15.05 | Dallas County, TX | 5 | 18.72 |
| 26.37 | 17.84 | Dallas County, TX | 6 | 21.85 |
| 29.17 | 20.44 | Dallas County, TX | 7 | 24.80 |
| 31.64 | 22.77 | Dallas County, TX | 8 | 27.44 |
| 34.10 | 24.92 | Dallas County, TX | 9 | 29.92 |
| 36.48 | 27.02 | Dallas County, TX | 10 | 32.14 |
| 38.70 | 28.82 | Dallas County, TX | 11 | 34.22 |
| 40.78 | 30.57 | Dallas County, TX | 12 | 36.10 |
| 42.76 | 32.29 | Dallas County, TX | 13 | 37.86 |
| 44.53 | 33.98 | Dallas County, TX | 14 | 39.50 |
| 46.27 | 35.62 | Dallas County, TX | 15 | 41.06 |
| 47.84 | 37.20 | Dallas County, TX | 16 | 42.61 |
| 49.48 | 38.79 | Dallas County, TX | 17 | 44.15 |
| 50.96 | 40.39 | Dallas County, TX | 18 | 45.66 |
| 52.44 | 41.90 | Dallas County, TX | 19 | 47.17 |
| 53.87 | 43.41 | Dallas County, TX | 20 | 48.67 |
| 55.28 | 44.87 | Dallas County, TX | 21 | 50.16 |
| 56.65 | 46.34 | Dallas County, TX | 22 | 51.61 |
| 58.03 | 47.80 | Dallas County, TX | 23 | 52.99 |
| 59.41 | 49.19 | Dallas County, TX | 24 | 54.36 |
| 60.83 | 50.61 | Dallas County, TX | 25 | 55.73 |
| 62.10 | 52 | Dallas County, TX | 26 | 57.07 |
| 63.37 | 53.36 | Dallas County, TX | 27 | 58.37 |
| 64.59 | 54.72 | Dallas County, TX | 28 | 59.67 |
| 65.81 | 56.02 | Dallas County, TX | 29 | 60.96 |
| 66.97 | 57.32 | Dallas County, TX | 30 | 62.23 |
| 68.14 | 58.61 | Dallas County, TX | 31 | 63.49 |
| 69.27 | 59.91 | Dallas County, TX | 32 | 64.74 |
| 70.34 | 61.10 | Dallas County, TX | 33 | 65.98 |
| 71.45 | 62.36 | Dallas County, TX | 34 | 67.13 |
| 72.47 | 63.55 | Dallas County, TX | 35 | 68.24 |
| 73.44 | 64.70 | Dallas County, TX | 36 | 69.30 |
| 74.37 | 65.88 | Dallas County, TX | 37 | 70.36 |
| 75.32 | 67.02 | Dallas County, TX | 38 | 71.37 |
| 76.26 | 68.09 | Dallas County, TX | 39 | 72.36 |
| 77.14 | 69.16 | Dallas County, TX | 40 | 73.34 |
| 78.09 | 70.21 | Dallas County, TX | 41 | 74.28 |
| 78.96 | 71.17 | Dallas County, TX | 42 | 75.22 |
| 79.82 | 72.14 | Dallas County, TX | 43 | 76.12 |
| 80.66 | 73.12 | Dallas County, TX | 44 | 77.02 |
| 81.48 | 74.03 | Dallas County, TX | 45 | 77.90 |
| 82.28 | 74.95 | Dallas County, TX | 46 | 78.75 |
| 83.07 | 75.84 | Dallas County, TX | 47 | 79.59 |
| 83.83 | 76.71 | Dallas County, TX | 48 | 80.40 |
| 84.60 | 77.58 | Dallas County, TX | 49 | 81.20 |
| 85.35 | 78.42 | Dallas County, TX | 50 | 81.99 |
| n/a | n/a | Philadelphia, PA | 0 | 0 |
| 4.86 | 2.49 | Philadelphia, PA | 1 | 4.05 |
| 9.03 | 4.95 | Philadelphia, PA | 2 | 6.90 |
| 12.33 | 7.35 | Philadelphia, PA | 3 | 9.67 |
| 15.30 | 9.72 | Philadelphia, PA | 4 | 12.40 |
| 18.15 | 12.02 | Philadelphia, PA | 5 | 14.95 |
| 20.94 | 14.24 | Philadelphia, PA | 6 | 17.37 |
| 23.56 | 16.44 | Philadelphia, PA | 7 | 19.76 |
| 26.22 | 18.59 | Philadelphia, PA | 8 | 22.13 |
| 28.74 | 20.72 | Philadelphia, PA | 9 | 24.49 |
| 31.05 | 22.74 | Philadelphia, PA | 10 | 26.77 |
| 33.41 | 24.70 | Philadelphia, PA | 11 | 28.93 |
| 35.79 | 26.58 | Philadelphia, PA | 12 | 31.09 |
| 37.81 | 28.50 | Philadelphia, PA | 13 | 33.25 |
| 40.03 | 30.35 | Philadelphia, PA | 14 | 35.30 |
| 41.97 | 32.22 | Philadelphia, PA | 15 | 37.27 |
| 43.97 | 34 | Philadelphia, PA | 16 | 39.20 |
| 45.92 | 35.78 | Philadelphia, PA | 17 | 41.12 |
| 47.71 | 37.43 | Philadelphia, PA | 18 | 42.87 |
| 49.45 | 39.16 | Philadelphia, PA | 19 | 44.55 |
| 51.14 | 40.80 | Philadelphia, PA | 20 | 46.16 |
| 52.82 | 42.40 | Philadelphia, PA | 21 | 47.74 |
| 54.44 | 43.98 | Philadelphia, PA | 22 | 49.31 |
| 56.15 | 45.48 | Philadelphia, PA | 23 | 50.87 |
| 57.78 | 46.99 | Philadelphia, PA | 24 | 52.43 |
| 59.31 | 48.49 | Philadelphia, PA | 25 | 53.97 |
| 60.72 | 49.90 | Philadelphia, PA | 26 | 55.45 |
| 62.11 | 51.33 | Philadelphia, PA | 27 | 56.88 |
| 63.51 | 52.74 | Philadelphia, PA | 28 | 58.20 |
| 64.86 | 54.05 | Philadelphia, PA | 29 | 59.49 |
| 66.19 | 55.39 | Philadelphia, PA | 30 | 60.76 |
| 67.52 | 56.63 | Philadelphia, PA | 31 | 62.03 |
| 68.80 | 57.85 | Philadelphia, PA | 32 | 63.28 |
| 70.05 | 59.01 | Philadelphia, PA | 33 | 64.51 |
| 71.16 | 60.22 | Philadelphia, PA | 34 | 65.74 |
| 72.29 | 61.42 | Philadelphia, PA | 35 | 66.96 |
| 73.45 | 62.60 | Philadelphia, PA | 36 | 68.15 |
| 74.57 | 63.79 | Philadelphia, PA | 37 | 69.34 |
| 75.65 | 64.95 | Philadelphia, PA | 38 | 70.51 |
| 76.70 | 66.06 | Philadelphia, PA | 39 | 71.62 |
| 77.68 | 67.11 | Philadelphia, PA | 40 | 72.68 |
| 78.66 | 68.17 | Philadelphia, PA | 41 | 73.74 |
| 79.64 | 69.24 | Philadelphia, PA | 42 | 74.74 |
| 80.57 | 70.20 | Philadelphia, PA | 43 | 75.71 |
| 81.49 | 71.20 | Philadelphia, PA | 44 | 76.66 |
| 82.39 | 72.22 | Philadelphia, PA | 45 | 77.57 |
| 83.23 | 73.17 | Philadelphia, PA | 46 | 78.49 |
| 84.05 | 74.11 | Philadelphia, PA | 47 | 79.39 |
| 84.83 | 75.07 | Philadelphia, PA | 48 | 80.28 |
| 85.60 | 76.03 | Philadelphia, PA | 49 | 81.17 |
| 86.33 | 76.93 | Philadelphia, PA | 50 | 82.01 |
| n/a | n/a | Harris County, TX | 0 | 0 |
| 4.53 | 3.20 | Harris County, TX | 1 | 4.19 |
| 8.62 | 6.23 | Harris County, TX | 2 | 7.65 |
| 12.14 | 9.08 | Harris County, TX | 3 | 10.70 |
| 15.32 | 11.64 | Harris County, TX | 4 | 13.57 |
| 18.21 | 13.95 | Harris County, TX | 5 | 16.30 |
| 20.87 | 16.11 | Harris County, TX | 6 | 18.66 |
| 23.36 | 18.17 | Harris County, TX | 7 | 20.89 |
| 25.58 | 20.15 | Harris County, TX | 8 | 22.96 |
| 27.75 | 22.10 | Harris County, TX | 9 | 24.96 |
| 29.84 | 23.99 | Harris County, TX | 10 | 26.88 |
| 31.88 | 25.80 | Harris County, TX | 11 | 28.77 |
| 33.81 | 27.59 | Harris County, TX | 12 | 30.64 |
| 35.60 | 29.33 | Harris County, TX | 13 | 32.40 |
| 37.39 | 31.05 | Harris County, TX | 14 | 34.14 |
| 39.16 | 32.72 | Harris County, TX | 15 | 35.85 |
| 40.84 | 34.31 | Harris County, TX | 16 | 37.54 |
| 42.47 | 35.90 | Harris County, TX | 17 | 39.18 |
| 44.04 | 37.48 | Harris County, TX | 18 | 40.72 |
| 45.57 | 39.01 | Harris County, TX | 19 | 42.25 |
| 47.09 | 40.52 | Harris County, TX | 20 | 43.76 |
| 48.64 | 42.03 | Harris County, TX | 21 | 45.27 |
| 50.12 | 43.51 | Harris County, TX | 22 | 46.76 |
| 51.59 | 44.96 | Harris County, TX | 23 | 48.23 |
| 53.04 | 46.39 | Harris County, TX | 24 | 49.67 |
| 54.44 | 47.79 | Harris County, TX | 25 | 51.08 |
| 55.84 | 49.16 | Harris County, TX | 26 | 52.47 |
| 57.25 | 50.51 | Harris County, TX | 27 | 53.81 |
| 58.54 | 51.80 | Harris County, TX | 28 | 55.14 |
| 59.88 | 53.10 | Harris County, TX | 29 | 56.46 |
| 61.19 | 54.39 | Harris County, TX | 30 | 57.76 |
| 62.48 | 55.68 | Harris County, TX | 31 | 59.01 |
| 63.75 | 56.94 | Harris County, TX | 32 | 60.24 |
| 64.97 | 58.15 | Harris County, TX | 33 | 61.47 |
| 66.17 | 59.36 | Harris County, TX | 34 | 62.67 |
| 67.41 | 60.58 | Harris County, TX | 35 | 63.87 |
| 68.60 | 61.78 | Harris County, TX | 36 | 65.07 |
| 69.79 | 62.97 | Harris County, TX | 37 | 66.24 |
| 70.95 | 64.14 | Harris County, TX | 38 | 67.40 |
| 72.11 | 65.27 | Harris County, TX | 39 | 68.54 |
| 73.17 | 66.41 | Harris County, TX | 40 | 69.67 |
| 74.22 | 67.55 | Harris County, TX | 41 | 70.78 |
| 75.31 | 68.68 | Harris County, TX | 42 | 71.87 |
| 76.39 | 69.77 | Harris County, TX | 43 | 72.95 |
| 77.43 | 70.86 | Harris County, TX | 44 | 74 |
| 78.41 | 71.91 | Harris County, TX | 45 | 75.03 |
| 79.39 | 72.98 | Harris County, TX | 46 | 76.04 |
| 80.34 | 74 | Harris County, TX | 47 | 77.02 |
| 81.27 | 74.97 | Harris County, TX | 48 | 78 |
| 82.18 | 75.95 | Harris County, TX | 49 | 78.96 |
| 83.08 | 76.92 | Harris County, TX | 50 | 79.90 |
| n/a | n/a | Shelby County, TN | 0 | 0 |
| 3.35 | 2.13 | Shelby County, TN | 1 | 2.76 |
| 6.68 | 4.25 | Shelby County, TN | 2 | 5.52 |
| 9.65 | 6.32 | Shelby County, TN | 3 | 8.03 |
| 12.70 | 8.34 | Shelby County, TN | 4 | 10.54 |
| 15.44 | 10.35 | Shelby County, TN | 5 | 13.05 |
| 18.15 | 12.33 | Shelby County, TN | 6 | 15.41 |
| 20.72 | 14.28 | Shelby County, TN | 7 | 17.65 |
| 23.23 | 16.16 | Shelby County, TN | 8 | 19.74 |
| 25.83 | 18.07 | Shelby County, TN | 9 | 21.82 |
| 28.34 | 19.94 | Shelby County, TN | 10 | 23.88 |
| 30.73 | 21.73 | Shelby County, TN | 11 | 25.94 |
| 32.99 | 23.47 | Shelby County, TN | 12 | 27.95 |
| 35.28 | 25.18 | Shelby County, TN | 13 | 29.93 |
| 37.60 | 26.90 | Shelby County, TN | 14 | 31.91 |
| 39.58 | 28.63 | Shelby County, TN | 15 | 33.87 |
| 41.60 | 30.26 | Shelby County, TN | 16 | 35.82 |
| 43.59 | 31.92 | Shelby County, TN | 17 | 37.73 |
| 45.55 | 33.59 | Shelby County, TN | 18 | 39.54 |
| 47.46 | 35.22 | Shelby County, TN | 19 | 41.31 |
| 49.31 | 36.81 | Shelby County, TN | 20 | 43.05 |
| 51.04 | 38.36 | Shelby County, TN | 21 | 44.78 |
| 52.73 | 39.81 | Shelby County, TN | 22 | 46.34 |
| 54.49 | 41.28 | Shelby County, TN | 23 | 47.91 |
| 56.08 | 42.67 | Shelby County, TN | 24 | 49.44 |
| 57.73 | 44.14 | Shelby County, TN | 25 | 50.96 |
| 59.35 | 45.53 | Shelby County, TN | 26 | 52.36 |
| 60.91 | 46.94 | Shelby County, TN | 27 | 53.75 |
| 62.40 | 48.26 | Shelby County, TN | 28 | 55.14 |
| 63.91 | 49.58 | Shelby County, TN | 29 | 56.48 |
| 65.29 | 50.86 | Shelby County, TN | 30 | 57.81 |
| 66.75 | 52.10 | Shelby County, TN | 31 | 59.13 |
| 68.12 | 53.35 | Shelby County, TN | 32 | 60.45 |
| 69.48 | 54.60 | Shelby County, TN | 33 | 61.75 |
| 70.76 | 55.83 | Shelby County, TN | 34 | 63.03 |
| 72.05 | 57.05 | Shelby County, TN | 35 | 64.32 |
| 73.29 | 58.24 | Shelby County, TN | 36 | 65.58 |
| 74.51 | 59.41 | Shelby County, TN | 37 | 66.83 |
| 75.68 | 60.54 | Shelby County, TN | 38 | 67.99 |
| 76.80 | 61.74 | Shelby County, TN | 39 | 69.15 |
| 78.05 | 62.78 | Shelby County, TN | 40 | 70.29 |
| 79.14 | 63.88 | Shelby County, TN | 41 | 71.42 |
| 80.16 | 65.08 | Shelby County, TN | 42 | 72.47 |
| 81.19 | 66.11 | Shelby County, TN | 43 | 73.53 |
| 82.23 | 67.14 | Shelby County, TN | 44 | 74.58 |
| 83.24 | 68.27 | Shelby County, TN | 45 | 75.63 |
| 84.18 | 69.31 | Shelby County, TN | 46 | 76.67 |
| 85.11 | 70.40 | Shelby County, TN | 47 | 77.70 |
| 85.94 | 71.36 | Shelby County, TN | 48 | 78.69 |
| 86.79 | 72.37 | Shelby County, TN | 49 | 79.66 |
| 87.66 | 73.37 | Shelby County, TN | 50 | 80.63 |

Note: The 8 counties are those with the most implied firearm homicide deaths a year in the cluster file; New York City is left out. A cluster that crosses a county line counts in each county with only the residents who live there.

Note: The unit is the tract cluster, a group of neighboring tracts with one CDC rate. In every county shown at least 80.2% of residents live in a cluster with a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024, and 87.7% do in Cook County; the others are left out.

Note: Each curve carries a 95% interval from a bootstrap that draws clusters within the county with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note); the intervals are in the tooltip and the data table. A county line cuts through metropolitan areas, so a county that includes suburbs holds more low-rate residents than one that does not.

Source: CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence, tract file, firearm homicide, 2022-2024; modeled estimates for tract clusters; ACS 2019-2023 population

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/county_concentration.json

### Table 3. In Cook County, 24.2% of tracts with an estimate sit in clusters with no recorded firearm homicide, while the highest cluster rate reaches 89 per hundred thousand residents

Mean firearm homicide rate per 100,000 residents, 2022 to 2024, of the tract cluster each Cook County tract belongs to

No inline rows: the values of Table 3 are in https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/chicago_homicide_map.json.

Note: The unit of this map is the tract cluster. CDC publishes one rate for each group of neighboring tracts (the median tract sits in a cluster of 5) and the file repeats it on every member tract, so a shade covers a cluster and the map does not describe single tracts. 1,163 tracts are shaded and 168 are gray.

Note: A cluster-year with 1 to 9 deaths gets a CDC modeled estimate, one with no deaths a rate of zero from a count of zero, and one with 10 or more deaths a direct rate. A mean rate is shown only when CDC publishes a rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024, and the data for 2024 are provisional. The highest cluster rate is an average over several tracts, so a single block can run higher.

Note: Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts left blank; the deprivation rank is the 2023 national percentile, 1 least and 100 most deprived.

Source: CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence, tract file, firearm homicide, 2022-2024; modeled estimates for tract clusters; USALEEP 2010-2015; ADI 2023

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/chicago_homicide_map.json

### Table 4. In Cook County, residents of the highest-rate tenth of clusters have a life expectancy of 71.7 years (deaths in 2010 to 2015), 9.5 fewer than residents of clusters with no recorded deaths

Cook County residents in tenths by the firearm homicide rate of their tract cluster, 2022 to 2024: the rate, life expectancy at birth for deaths in 2010 to 2015, and the Area Deprivation Index

#### Table 4.1. Firearm homicide rate

The highest tenth of Cook County residents lives in clusters with a rate of 60 per hundred thousand residents

Mean firearm homicide deaths per 100,000 residents a year, 2022 to 2024, by tenth of residents

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | tenth |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| n/a | n/a | 0 | 30 | 1 |
| n/a | n/a | 0 | 30 | 2 |
| 0.490 | 0.110 | 0.300 | 27 | 3 |
| 2.13 | 1.85 | 1.99 | 27 | 4 |
| 3.25 | 2.87 | 3.05 | 27 | 5 |
| 5.83 | 5.30 | 5.57 | 26 | 6 |
| 10.65 | 9.18 | 9.91 | 30 | 7 |
| 17.03 | 15.55 | 16.29 | 25 | 8 |
| 30.45 | 25.20 | 27.75 | 31 | 9 |
| 65.05 | 55.83 | 60.03 | 26 | 10 |

#### Table 4.2. Life expectancy

Life expectancy for deaths in 2010 to 2015 falls to 71.7 years in the highest tenth of Cook County clusters

Population-weighted mean life expectancy at birth, deaths in 2010 to 2015, by tenth of residents ranked by firearm homicide rate of the cluster, 2022 to 2024

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | tenth |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 81.38 | 79.72 | 80.59 | 30 | 1 |
| 82.42 | 80.94 | 81.65 | 30 | 2 |
| 81.92 | 80.26 | 81.05 | 27 | 3 |
| 81.02 | 79.85 | 80.43 | 27 | 4 |
| 80.24 | 78.69 | 79.48 | 25 | 5 |
| 80.21 | 78.93 | 79.56 | 26 | 6 |
| 78.58 | 77.17 | 77.92 | 30 | 7 |
| 78.08 | 76.49 | 77.27 | 25 | 8 |
| 75.93 | 74.39 | 75.19 | 31 | 9 |
| 72.39 | 70.99 | 71.69 | 26 | 10 |

#### Table 4.3. Deprivation

The deprivation rank is 74 in the highest tenth of Cook County clusters

Population-weighted mean Area Deprivation Index national rank, 2023, by tenth of residents ranked by firearm homicide rate of the cluster, 2022 to 2024

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | tenth |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 39.52 | 30.90 | 35.31 | 30 | 1 |
| 34.07 | 23.53 | 29.05 | 30 | 2 |
| 37.86 | 27.25 | 32.88 | 27 | 3 |
| 44.38 | 31.99 | 37.79 | 27 | 4 |
| 44.79 | 33.73 | 39.49 | 27 | 5 |
| 46.10 | 34.81 | 40.18 | 26 | 6 |
| 56.36 | 48.78 | 52.70 | 30 | 7 |
| 63.59 | 55.39 | 59.58 | 25 | 8 |
| 74.67 | 64.85 | 69.67 | 31 | 9 |
| 78.28 | 71.04 | 74.37 | 26 | 10 |

Note: The unit is the tract cluster. CDC publishes one rate for each group of neighboring tracts, and tracts inherit it. Tenths hold equal numbers of residents among the 87.7% of Cook County residents who live in clusters with a rate in every year from 2022 to 2024. Clusters with zero recorded deaths hold 27.0% of those residents and fill the lowest two tenths and part of the third, ordered among themselves at random with the book's fixed seed, so the first three tenths differ only in who lives there.

Note: The tenths are formed on the rate itself, so the first tab shows how far apart the groups were sorted. Life expectancy is the USALEEP estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts left out; the rates are for 2022 to 2024.

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that draws clusters with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note).

Source: CDC Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence, tract file, firearm homicide, 2022-2024; modeled estimates for tract clusters; USALEEP 2010-2015; ADI 2023; population-weighted

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cook_deciles.json

### Table 5. Premature mortality rises from 307 to 701 per hundred thousand residents across deciles of county deprivation

Population-weighted mean age-adjusted deaths before age 75 per 100,000 residents, by decile of the county Area Deprivation Index, counties, County Health Rankings 2024 release

| conf_high | conf_low | decile | estimate | n_units |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 317.6 | 296.1 | 1 | 306.9 | 308 |
| 387.5 | 356.6 | 2 | 372.7 | 308 |
| 438.9 | 399.7 | 3 | 417.1 | 308 |
| 493.3 | 439.2 | 4 | 465.4 | 309 |
| 510.6 | 465.7 | 5 | 490.1 | 308 |
| 536.2 | 483.2 | 6 | 505.8 | 308 |
| 563.4 | 502 | 7 | 531.3 | 309 |
| 588.4 | 508.8 | 8 | 543.4 | 308 |
| 631.6 | 568.9 | 9 | 604 | 307 |
| 739.9 | 659.7 | 10 | 701.1 | 310 |

Note: Counties are ranked by the population-weighted mean of their tract Area Deprivation Index ranks and split into ten groups with equal numbers of counties; the means are weighted by county population. 3,083 counties have both a rate and a rank; County Health Rankings leaves out a county with fewer than 20 premature deaths in the window. Puerto Rico is not in County Health Rankings and is not drawn.

Note: The band is a 95% interval for the mean, from a bootstrap that draws whole states with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note); it is not the spread of counties within a decile. The rate is County Health Rankings premature age-adjusted mortality, deaths of residents under 75 per hundred thousand, pooled over 2019 to 2021.

Note: Across all the counties in the comparison the rate is 392 per hundred thousand residents.

Source: County Health Rankings 2024 release, NCHS death counts 2019-2021, age-adjusted rates from full counts, population-weighted; Area Deprivation Index 2023

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/premature_death_gradient.json

### Table 6. Overdose is 51.0% of the four-cause toll in the least deprived fifth of residents and 43.6% in the most, while motor-vehicle crashes go from 16.0% to 21.4%

Each kind of death's share of the sum of four crude death rates (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash), by fifth of residents ranked by county deprivation, counties with all four rates published

| cause | conf_high | conf_low | n_units | quintile | rate | share |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Drug overdose | 57.56 | 46.95 | 71 | 1 (least deprived) | 21.58 | 50.97 |
| Suicide | 29.49 | 21.62 | 71 | 1 (least deprived) | 10.23 | 24.16 |
| Homicide | 10.21 | 5.90 | 71 | 1 (least deprived) | 3.74 | 8.83 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 17.93 | 12.58 | 71 | 1 (least deprived) | 6.79 | 16.03 |
| Drug overdose | 51.82 | 43.30 | 117 | 2 | 24.84 | 47.08 |
| Suicide | 28.86 | 22.59 | 117 | 2 | 13.46 | 25.51 |
| Homicide | 10.24 | 7.57 | 117 | 2 | 4.78 | 9.06 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 20.68 | 15.55 | 117 | 2 | 9.68 | 18.35 |
| Drug overdose | 50.35 | 42.32 | 189 | 3 | 27.79 | 46.56 |
| Suicide | 27.08 | 21.39 | 189 | 3 | 14.26 | 23.88 |
| Homicide | 13.28 | 8.39 | 189 | 3 | 6.31 | 10.58 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 21.38 | 16.21 | 189 | 3 | 11.32 | 18.97 |
| Drug overdose | 52.09 | 42.41 | 253 | 4 | 32.31 | 47.43 |
| Suicide | 24.50 | 20.81 | 253 | 4 | 15.36 | 22.54 |
| Homicide | 13.37 | 9.49 | 253 | 4 | 7.85 | 11.53 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 20.92 | 15.90 | 253 | 4 | 12.60 | 18.50 |
| Drug overdose | 48.22 | 38.43 | 618 | 5 (most deprived) | 33.30 | 43.58 |
| Suicide | 23.85 | 20.06 | 618 | 5 (most deprived) | 16.71 | 21.87 |
| Homicide | 14.67 | 11.67 | 618 | 5 (most deprived) | 10.05 | 13.15 |
| Motor-vehicle crash | 24.65 | 18.44 | 618 | 5 (most deprived) | 16.36 | 21.41 |

Note: Only counties with all four rates published enter (1,248 counties, 89.6% of county residents): County Health Rankings leaves a county out of a cause when it has fewer than 10 deaths in the window, so small counties are missing and a missing rate means too few deaths, not zero. Fifths hold equal numbers of residents, not counties.

Note: The four rates are crude, so they are comparable with one another, and they overlap a little: a suicide by drug poisoning counts as both an overdose and a suicide. Firearm deaths are left out because they sit inside suicide and homicide, and child mortality has a different denominator. The windows differ by cause (overdose 2019 to 2021, suicide 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021). Overdose appears in this chapter only in this mix, the leading-kind map and a cross-check against the CDC panel; the overdose maps, gradients and trend are in the chapters on overdose, alcohol and suicide and on mortality trends.

Note: Shares are the cause's population-weighted mean rate divided by the sum of the four means, with 95% intervals from a bootstrap that draws whole states with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note). The total toll is 42 per hundred thousand in the least deprived fifth and 76 in the most.

Source: County Health Rankings 2024 release, NCHS death counts 2015-2021 in windows that differ by cause, crude rates from full counts, population-weighted; Area Deprivation Index 2023

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cause_mix_by_quintile.json

### Table 7. Homicide and other causes of early death are higher in more deprived counties, with a population-weighted correlation of +0.41 for homicide

Correlation across counties of each death measure with the county Area Deprivation Index and with the rural share of residents, weighted by county population or counting every county once, County Health Rankings 2024 release

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | group | measure | n_units | view | weighting |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| 0.584 | 0.281 | 0.464 | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | 2,427 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.317 | 0.098 | 0.207 | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | 2,427 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.604 | 0.446 | 0.527 | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | 2,427 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.438 | 0.323 | 0.374 | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | Suicide (age-adjusted rate) | 2,427 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.225 | −0.105 | 0.083 | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | 3,102 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.005 | −0.131 | −0.062 | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | 3,102 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.221 | −0.029 | 0.104 | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | 3,116 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.099 | −0.029 | 0.032 | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | Alcohol-impaired driving (share of crash deaths) | 3,116 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.677 | 0.478 | 0.600 | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | 2,279 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.516 | 0.325 | 0.423 | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | 2,279 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.367 | 0.129 | 0.265 | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | 2,279 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.425 | 0.294 | 0.359 | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | Firearm death, any intent (crude rate) | 2,279 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.482 | 0.342 | 0.413 | Homicide (crude rate) | Homicide (crude rate) | 1,376 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.554 | 0.415 | 0.490 | Homicide (crude rate) | Homicide (crude rate) | 1,376 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.053 | −0.175 | −0.055 | Homicide (crude rate) | Homicide (crude rate) | 1,376 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.345 | 0.121 | 0.246 | Homicide (crude rate) | Homicide (crude rate) | 1,376 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.705 | 0.562 | 0.624 | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | 2,688 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.621 | 0.494 | 0.556 | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | 2,688 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.718 | 0.585 | 0.655 | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | 2,688 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.643 | 0.566 | 0.602 | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | Motor-vehicle crash (crude rate) | 2,688 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.756 | 0.602 | 0.693 | Child mortality (crude rate) | Child mortality (crude rate) | 2,038 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.610 | 0.499 | 0.552 | Child mortality (crude rate) | Child mortality (crude rate) | 2,038 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.419 | 0.201 | 0.324 | Child mortality (crude rate) | Child mortality (crude rate) | 2,038 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.489 | 0.352 | 0.423 | Child mortality (crude rate) | Child mortality (crude rate) | 2,038 | rural | unweighted |
| 0.827 | 0.737 | 0.781 | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | 3,083 | deprivation | population-weighted |
| 0.722 | 0.574 | 0.644 | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | 3,083 | deprivation | unweighted |
| 0.495 | 0.317 | 0.417 | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | 3,088 | rural | population-weighted |
| 0.327 | 0.183 | 0.251 | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | Premature mortality (age-adjusted rate) | 3,088 | rural | unweighted |

Views: Deprivation, population-weighted (view = deprivation, weighting = population-weighted); Rural share, population-weighted (view = rural, weighting = population-weighted); Deprivation, unweighted (view = deprivation, weighting = unweighted); Rural share, unweighted (view = rural, weighting = unweighted).

Note: Each correlation uses the counties with a published rate for that measure (County Health Rankings leaves out a county with fewer than 10 deaths in the window, 20 for premature mortality), so the counties differ across rows and the number is in the tooltip. The 1,376 counties with a homicide rate are less rural than counties as a whole (43.3% against 64.1% mean rural share), because a county with few homicides gets no rate, so the homicide rows describe the counties that report and not all counties. Alcohol-impaired driving is a share of motor-vehicle crash deaths, not a rate per resident. Correlations across counties describe places, not people.

Note: Intervals are 95% intervals from a bootstrap that draws whole states with replacement (replicates and seed are in the methods note). Rural share is the County Health Rankings measure of the share of residents living outside urban areas. County deprivation and rural share correlate at +0.56 across counties, weighted by population.

Source: County Health Rankings 2024 release, NCHS death counts 2015-2021 in windows that differ by cause, crude rates for four measures, age-adjusted rates for two and a share of crash deaths for one, from full counts, population-weighted or unweighted as each view states; Area Deprivation Index 2023

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cause_correlations.json

### Table 8. Overdose has the highest rate of the four causes in 829 of 1,248 counties, and homicide in only 11

Kind of death with the highest crude death rate among overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crash, counties with all four rates published, County Health Rankings 2024 release

No inline rows: the values of Table 8 are in https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/dominant_cause_map.json.

Note: Gray means at least one of the four rates is missing. County Health Rankings leaves out a county's rate when it has fewer than 10 deaths from that cause in the window, so a missing rate means too few deaths, not zero, and the gray counties are mostly small ones. The map answers only for the 1,248 counties with all four rates, which hold 89.6% of county residents.

Note: Counties are compared on rates computed over windows of different lengths (overdose 2019 to 2021, suicide 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021), and small counties have noisy rates, so a label in a county with few deaths can change with one year of data. Puerto Rico is not on the map. Connecticut is drawn as its eight legacy counties.

Source: County Health Rankings 2024 release, NCHS death counts 2015-2021 in windows that differ by cause, crude rates from full counts

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/dominant_cause_map.json

### Table 9. The premature death rate is steadily worse toward the more deprived end under the ADI and under each of the three other rankings

Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted by tenth of counties ranked four ways, over the 3,080 counties that have all four rankings

| bin | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | ranking |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 1 | 318.3 | 295.9 | 307.3 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 2 | 386.6 | 354.3 | 371.4 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 3 | 438.1 | 402.9 | 419.7 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 4 | 487.6 | 431.0 | 457.7 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 5 | 508.7 | 464.0 | 487.1 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 6 | 540.2 | 491.0 | 515.3 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 7 | 554.7 | 495.4 | 523.1 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 8 | 590.6 | 509.2 | 545.3 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 9 | 632.4 | 571.6 | 605.7 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 10 | 740.7 | 654.9 | 698.0 | 308 | Area Deprivation Index |
| 1 | 291.5 | 270.5 | 280 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 2 | 381.3 | 359.5 | 370.3 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 3 | 406.4 | 358.1 | 379.4 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 4 | 434.3 | 395.8 | 412.9 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 5 | 496.9 | 437.5 | 469.7 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 6 | 545.1 | 497.1 | 521.8 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 7 | 549.3 | 500.3 | 525.1 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 8 | 575.2 | 514.0 | 542.4 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 9 | 619.0 | 532.2 | 573.6 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 10 | 723.5 | 574.3 | 650.1 | 308 | Standardized index |
| 1 | 300.4 | 284.3 | 290.6 | 308 | Median household income |
| 2 | 378.0 | 351.9 | 363.8 | 308 | Median household income |
| 3 | 416.3 | 386.1 | 400.2 | 308 | Median household income |
| 4 | 451.2 | 415.8 | 433.8 | 308 | Median household income |
| 5 | 500.4 | 463.9 | 483.1 | 308 | Median household income |
| 6 | 533.1 | 492.5 | 511.2 | 308 | Median household income |
| 7 | 559.8 | 513.9 | 538.9 | 308 | Median household income |
| 8 | 586.0 | 522.5 | 552.7 | 308 | Median household income |
| 9 | 636.7 | 596.5 | 618.2 | 308 | Median household income |
| 10 | 708.7 | 647.3 | 679.8 | 308 | Median household income |
| 1 | 315.5 | 282.1 | 296.7 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 2 | 389.6 | 357.5 | 371.7 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 3 | 453.0 | 381.2 | 414.2 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 4 | 463.8 | 422.8 | 442.2 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 5 | 502.6 | 445.6 | 477.7 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 6 | 508.9 | 460.7 | 480.1 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 7 | 547.0 | 489.3 | 516.1 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 8 | 571.7 | 517.4 | 545.2 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 9 | 619.5 | 534.8 | 579.0 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |
| 10 | 655.8 | 597.4 | 627.1 | 308 | Bachelor's degree share |

Note: Least and most deprived tenth: ADI 307 and 698, rank correlation +1.00; standardized index 280 and 650, +1.00; median household income 291 and 680, +1.00; bachelor's degree share 297 and 627, +1.00.

Note: The standardized index applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one, so home value and income carry less weight than in the ADI. Income and degree share are single census measures, each ranked from the highest value to the lowest.

Source: County Health Rankings 2024 release, NCHS death counts 2019-2021, age-adjusted rates from full counts, population-weighted; Area Deprivation Index 2023; ADI 2023 and ACS 2019-2023 tract tables (B19013, B15003 and the 15 rebuilt ADI measures)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/alt_rankings.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (112), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| adi_rural_r | +0.56 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of county ADI national rank with rural share; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with an ADI rank and a rural share | ADI 2023 release; County Health Rankings 2024 release (rural share of residents) | 95% CI 0.48 to 0.63 | 3,128 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| all_rural | 64.1% | percent of residents living in rural areas | simple mean over counties of the rural share of residents | all counties in the file | County Health Rankings 2024 release (rural share of residents) |   | 3,143 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_adi_least | 307 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the least deprived tenth of counties ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 296 to 318 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_adi_most | 698 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the most deprived tenth of counties ranked by Area Deprivation Index, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 655 to 741 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_adi_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of counties ranked by Area Deprivation Index | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_degree_least | 297 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the least deprived tenth of counties ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 282 to 315 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_degree_most | 627 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the most deprived tenth of counties ranked by Bachelor's degree share, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 597 to 656 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_degree_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of counties ranked by Bachelor's degree share | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_income_least | 291 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the least deprived tenth of counties ranked by Median household income, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 284 to 300 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_income_most | 680 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the most deprived tenth of counties ranked by Median household income, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 647 to 709 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_income_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of counties ranked by Median household income | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_n_places | 3,080 | counties | count of counties in the common sample of the ranking comparison | counties with the outcome and all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_rho_cut | 0.9 | absolute rank correlation | threshold between a steady and an uneven gradient | the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md) | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | none (a fixed rule) | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_rho_margin | 0.1 | absolute rank correlation | smallest move in the rank correlation that counts as a change of shape | the rule for changed gradients (docs/RANKING_SWITCH_RULE.md) | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | none (a fixed rule) | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_std_least | 280 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the least deprived tenth of counties ranked by Standardized index, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 270 to 291 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_std_most | 650 | Premature deaths per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county age-adjusted premature mortality rates; 95% intervals from a bootstrap over states | the most deprived tenth of counties ranked by Standardized index, among the counties with all four rankings | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 574 to 723 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| alt_std_rho | +1.00 | rank correlation | Spearman rank correlation between bin order and bin mean, each bin counted once | the bins of counties ranked by Standardized index | deaths in 2019 to 2021 (County Health Rankings 2024 release); rankings from ACS 2019-2023 |   |   | each bin counted once | County Health Rankings |   |
| axis_stop | 50% | percent of residents | where the horizontal axis of the county curves stops (definitional) | residents of each of the eight counties | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chi_max_fa | 89 | firearm homicide deaths per 100,000 residents per year | highest mean annual rate of any cluster | Cook County tract clusters shown on the map | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (single highest cluster) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chi_n_gray | 168 | tracts | tracts with no cluster rate shown: CDC withholds the rate in at least one year, or the tract has no residents | Cook County tracts on the map | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chi_n_tracts | 1,163 | tracts | tracts shown with a cluster rate | Cook County tracts on the map | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chi_top_south | 90.8% | percent of residents | share living in tracts whose centroid lies south of the Chicago Loop (a tract centroid south of the Loop's position on the map) | Cook County residents in the tenth living in the highest-rate clusters | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   | 174 tracts | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chi_zero_pct | 24.2% | percent of tracts | share of tracts whose cluster has zero recorded deaths in each of the three years | Cook County tracts shown with a cluster rate | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (each tract counts once) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| chr_floor | 10 | deaths in the window | County Health Rankings leaves a county's rate out when it has fewer deaths than this (definitional; checked: the smallest published count is 10) | counties in the file | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (definition) | County Health Rankings |   |
| chr_floor_pmm | 20 | deaths in the window | the same floor for premature mortality (definitional; checked: the smallest published count is 20) | counties in the file | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (definition) | County Health Rankings |   |
| clu_tract_max | 20 | tracts per cluster | largest number of tracts in one cluster | tracts outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (single largest cluster) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| clu_tract_median | 5 | tracts per cluster | median, over tracts, of the number of tracts in the tract's cluster | tracts outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (each tract counts once) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cook_cov | 87.7% | percent of residents | share living in a cluster with a published rate in all three years | residents of Cook County | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cook_half | 10.5% | percent of residents | share of residents in the highest-rate clusters that hold half of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County tract clusters with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 9.1% to 12.2% | 279 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cook_le_gap | 9.5 | years of life expectancy at birth | difference of two population-weighted means of tract life expectancy; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County tract clusters with zero recorded deaths, minus residents in the highest-rate tenth | deaths in 2010 to 2015 | 95% CI 8.6 to 10.4 | 106 tract clusters | 2020 tract population (ACS 2019-2023) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| cook_top_adi | 74 | Area Deprivation Index national rank, 1 least to 100 most deprived | population-weighted mean of tract ranks; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County in the tenth living in the highest-rate clusters | ADI 2023 release, built on ACS 2019-2023 | 95% CI 71 to 78 | 26 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 tract population | Area Deprivation Index |   |
| cook_top_fa | 60 | firearm homicide deaths per 100,000 residents per year | population-weighted mean of cluster rates; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County in the tenth of residents living in the highest-rate clusters | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 56 to 65 | 26 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cook_top_le | 71.7 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy, institutional tracts dropped; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County in the tenth living in the highest-rate clusters | deaths in 2010 to 2015 | 95% CI 71.0 to 72.4 | 26 tract clusters | 2020 tract population (ACS 2019-2023) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| cook_zero | 27.0% | percent of residents | share of residents in clusters with zero recorded deaths in each of the three years; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County tract clusters with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 22.1% to 32.2% | 279 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cook_zero_le | 81.2 | years of life expectancy at birth | population-weighted mean of tract life expectancy, institutional tracts dropped; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County tract clusters with zero recorded deaths in each of the three years | deaths in 2010 to 2015 | 95% CI 80.7 to 81.7 | 80 tract clusters | 2020 tract population (ACS 2019-2023) | USALEEP life expectancy |   |
| county_max_half | 24.4% | percent of residents | share of residents in the highest-rate clusters that hold half of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of tract clusters in the county with the largest share among the 8, with a modeled rate in each year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 20.4% to 29.3% | 46 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cty_at50_max | 95.7% | percent of implied firearm homicide deaths | cumulative share of deaths at the stop of the horizontal axis; largest of the 8 counties; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Cook County, IL in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 94.0% to 97.0% | 279 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cty_at50_min | 79.9% | percent of implied firearm homicide deaths | cumulative share of deaths at the stop of the horizontal axis; smallest of the 8 counties; clusters resampled with replacement | residents of Harris County, TX in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 76.9% to 83.1% | 267 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| cty_cov_min | 80.2% | percent of residents | smallest share of a county's residents who live in a cluster with a published rate in all three years | residents of the 8 counties | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| dom_hom | 11 | counties | counties where homicide has the highest of the four crude rates | counties with all four cause rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| dom_hom_black | 56.1% | percent of residents who are non-Hispanic Black | median county share | the counties where homicide has the highest of the four rates | ACS 2017-2021 as reported by County Health Rankings 2024 |   | 11 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| dom_mv | 201 | counties | counties where motor-vehicle crash has the highest of the four crude rates | counties with all four cause rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| dom_od | 829 | counties | counties where overdose has the highest of the four crude rates | counties with all four cause rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| dom_suic | 207 | counties | counties where suicide has the highest of the four crude rates | counties with all four cause rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_black | 27.3 | homicide deaths per 100,000 non-Hispanic Black residents (crude rate) | mean of county race-specific rates weighted by group residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval; a composite of reporting counties, not a national rate | residents of the 486 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for homicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 23.8 to 31.8 | 486 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_pub_rural | 43.3% | percent of residents living in rural areas | simple mean over counties of the rural share of residents | counties with a published homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release (rural share of residents) |   | 1,376 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_radi | +0.41 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the county rate with county ADI national rank; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a published homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.34 to 0.48 | 1,376 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_radi_unw | +0.49 | correlation coefficient | unweighted correlation of the county rate with county ADI national rank; state-cluster bootstrap interval | the counties with a published homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.42 to 0.55 | 1,376 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_ratio | 9.6 | ratio of Black to white homicide rates | ratio of the two group means; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of the 486 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for homicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 8.1 to 11.6 | 486 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_rrural | −0.05 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a published homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI −0.18 to 0.05 | 1,376 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_rrural_unw | +0.25 | correlation coefficient | unweighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | the counties with a published homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.35 | 1,376 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_sh_gap | +4.3 percentage points | percentage points of the four-kind crude death rate (homicide), most deprived fifth minus least deprived fifth | difference between the cause's share in the two fifths; state-cluster bootstrap interval from the same replicates | residents of counties in the least and most deprived fifths of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 2.2 percentage points to 7.5 percentage points | 689 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_sh_q1 | 8.8% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (homicide) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 5.9% to 10.2% | 71 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_sh_q5 | 13.1% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (homicide) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 11.7% to 14.7% | 618 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| hom_white | 2.8 | homicide deaths per 100,000 non-Hispanic white residents (crude rate) | mean of county race-specific rates weighted by group residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval; a composite of reporting counties, not a national rate | residents of the 486 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for homicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 2.5 to 3.2 | 486 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| mix_black | 7.1% | percent of residents who are non-Hispanic Black | median county share | counties with all four cause rates published | ACS 2017-2021 as reported by County Health Rankings 2024 |   | 1,248 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| mix_pop | 89.6% | percent of county residents | share of residents living in counties with all four rates published | residents of the 3143 counties in the file | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| mv_rrural | +0.66 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a published motor-vehicle crash rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.72 | 2,688 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| mv_rrural_unw | +0.60 | correlation coefficient | unweighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | the counties with a published motor-vehicle crash rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.57 to 0.64 | 2,688 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| mv_sh_gap | +5.4 percentage points | percentage points of the four-kind crude death rate (motor-vehicle), most deprived fifth minus least deprived fifth | difference between the cause's share in the two fifths; state-cluster bootstrap interval from the same replicates | residents of counties in the least and most deprived fifths of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 1.8 percentage points to 10.5 percentage points | 689 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| mv_sh_q1 | 16.0% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (motor-vehicle) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 12.6% to 17.9% | 71 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| mv_sh_q5 | 21.4% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (motor-vehicle) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 18.4% to 24.6% | 618 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| n_curve_counties | 8 | counties | the counties with the most implied firearm homicide deaths a year, which get a curve | counties outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| n_dom | 1,248 | counties | count of counties with all four rates published | counties with all four cause rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| n_hom_pub | 1,376 | counties | counties with a published homicide rate | counties in the file | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| n_mix | 1,248 | counties | count of counties in the cause mix | counties with all four cause rates published and an ADI rank | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| n_race_hom | 486 | counties | count of counties in the comparison | counties that publish both a Black and a white homicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| n_race_suic | 297 | counties | count of counties in the comparison | counties that publish both a Black and a white suicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| nat_covered | 308.7 million | residents | sum of cluster residents | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_fill_max | 10.2% | percent of residents | sensitivity: share holding half of deaths when a withheld year takes the lowest, middle or highest deaths in its published range of 1 to 9; largest of the three | residents of tract clusters outside New York City, withheld years filled | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_fill_min | 8.9% | percent of residents | sensitivity: share holding half of deaths when a withheld year takes the lowest, middle or highest deaths in its published range of 1 to 9; smallest of the three | residents of tract clusters outside New York City, withheld years filled | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_half | 9.5% | percent of residents | share of residents in the highest-rate clusters that together hold half of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters ranked by mean annual rate; county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 8.3% to 10.8% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_half_excl | 9.6% | percent of residents | sensitivity: share holding half of implied deaths after dropping the clusters whose main county is undercounted; no interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in every year, without the clusters of the 4 undercounted counties | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_n_clusters | 17,814 | tract clusters | count of clusters in the curve | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_redraw_hi | 9.8% | percent of residents | check: share of residents holding half of deaths when every modeled cluster-year rate is redrawn from CDC's published 95% interval (log-normal, 500 replicates); 97.5th percentile | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_redraw_lo | 9.6% | percent of residents | check: share of residents holding half of deaths when every modeled cluster-year rate is redrawn from CDC's published 95% interval (log-normal, 500 replicates); 2.5th percentile | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_three_q | 24.1% | percent of residents | share of residents in the highest-rate clusters that together hold three quarters of implied firearm homicide deaths; clusters ranked by mean annual rate; county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 22.2% to 26.0% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_top10 | 51.3% | percent of implied firearm homicide deaths | share of deaths in the clusters that hold the highest-rate tenth of residents; county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 48.1% to 54.4% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_tract_ratio | 78.6% | percent of implied deaths | implied annual deaths (rate times ACS residents) from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents (county rate times the residents of the same clusters) | tract clusters with a published rate and the residents of those clusters, in counties outside New York City with a county-file rate | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_withheld | 4.7% | percent of residents | share living in clusters where CDC withholds the rate in at least one of the three years | residents of tract clusters outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| nat_zero | 30.7% | percent of residents | share of residents in clusters with zero recorded deaths in each of the three years (a rate of 0 from a count of 0); county bootstrap interval | residents of tract clusters outside New York City with a published rate in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged | 95% CI 29.0% to 32.6% | 17,814 tract clusters | ACS 2019-2023 residents of each tract cluster (rate times residents gives implied deaths) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| od_sh_gap | −7.4 percentage points | percentage points of the four-kind crude death rate (overdose), most deprived fifth minus least deprived fifth | difference between the cause's share in the two fifths; state-cluster bootstrap interval from the same replicates | residents of counties in the least and most deprived fifths of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI −15.5 percentage points to −1.3 percentage points | 689 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| od_sh_q1 | 51.0% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (overdose) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 46.9% to 57.6% | 71 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| od_sh_q5 | 43.6% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (overdose) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 38.4% to 48.2% | 618 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| pmm_age | 75 | years of age | upper age of the premature-death definition (definitional, not an estimate) | residents who die before this age in County Health Rankings premature mortality | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (definition) | County Health Rankings |   |
| pmm_d1 | 307 | premature deaths (under age 75) per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 296 to 318 | 308 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| pmm_d10 | 701 | premature deaths (under age 75) per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived tenth of counties by Area Deprivation Index | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 660 to 740 | 310 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| pmm_n | 3,083 | counties | count of counties in the gradient | counties with a premature mortality rate and an ADI rank | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) |   |   | none (full count) | County Health Rankings |   |
| pmm_r | +0.78 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of county premature mortality with county ADI; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a premature mortality rate and an ADI rank | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.74 to 0.83 | 3,083 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_black | 7.8 | suicide deaths per 100,000 non-Hispanic Black residents (age-adjusted rate) | mean of county race-specific rates weighted by group residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval; a composite of reporting counties, not a national rate | residents of the 297 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for suicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 7.1 to 8.5 | 297 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_ratio | 2.1 | ratio of white to Black suicide rates | ratio of the two group means; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of the 297 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for suicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 1.9 to 2.3 | 297 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_rrural | +0.53 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a published suicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.45 to 0.60 | 2,427 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_rrural_unw | +0.37 | correlation coefficient | unweighted correlation of the county rate with county rural share of residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval | the counties with a published suicide rate | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 0.32 to 0.44 | 2,427 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_sh_q1 | 24.2% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (suicide) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 21.6% to 29.5% | 71 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_sh_q5 | 21.9% | percent of the four-kind crude death rate (suicide) | crude rate of one kind of death as a share of the sum of the four means (overdose, suicide, homicide, motor-vehicle crash); state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 20.1% to 23.9% | 618 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| suic_white | 16.4 | suicide deaths per 100,000 non-Hispanic white residents (age-adjusted rate) | mean of county race-specific rates weighted by group residents; state-cluster bootstrap interval; a composite of reporting counties, not a national rate | residents of the 297 counties that publish both a Black and a white rate for suicide, each group weighted by its residents | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 14.8 to 18.0 | 297 counties | county population times the group's share of residents | County Health Rankings |   |
| thr_half | 50% | percent of implied firearm homicide deaths | threshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate) | all deaths implied by the cluster rates | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| thr_q3 | 75% | percent of implied firearm homicide deaths | threshold that defines the concentration statistic (definitional, not an estimate) | all deaths implied by the cluster rates | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| toll_q1 | 42 | deaths per 100,000 residents per year, crude rates, four kinds of death summed | sum of the population-weighted mean crude rates of overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crash deaths; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the least deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 37 to 47 | 71 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| toll_q5 | 76 | deaths per 100,000 residents per year, crude rates, four kinds of death summed | sum of the population-weighted mean crude rates of overdose, suicide, homicide and motor-vehicle crash deaths; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties in the most deprived fifth of residents among counties with all four rates published | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 69 to 84 | 618 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| under_cut | 30% | percent of implied deaths | cutoff that defines an undercounted county: clusters imply less than this share of the county file's deaths (definitional) | counties outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| under_essex | 7.3% | percent of implied deaths | implied annual deaths from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents | residents of Essex County, New Jersey in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| under_floor | 15 | implied deaths a year in the county file | smallest county-file toll for which the undercount rule applies (definitional) | counties outside New York City | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | none (definition) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| under_sc | 28.1% | percent of implied deaths | implied annual deaths from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents | residents of Santa Clara County, California in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| under_sd | 27.6% | percent of implied deaths | implied annual deaths from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents | residents of San Diego County, California in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| under_suffolk | 8.7% | percent of implied deaths | implied annual deaths from the cluster rates as a share of the county file's implied deaths for the same residents | residents of Suffolk County, Massachusetts in clusters with a published rate in every year | annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024, averaged |   |   | ACS 2019-2023 residents | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| us_premature | 392 | premature deaths (under age 75) per 100,000 residents, age-adjusted | population-weighted mean of county rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of all counties with a premature mortality rate and an ADI rank | County Health Rankings 2024 release; deaths pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (overdose and premature mortality 2019 to 2021, suicide and firearm deaths 2017 to 2021, homicide and motor-vehicle crashes 2015 to 2021) | 95% CI 369 to 416 | 3,083 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| wh_clu_2022 | 312 | tract clusters | clusters where CDC withholds the rate in 2022 (marked unstable) | tract clusters outside New York City | 2022 |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| wh_clu_2024 | 455 | tract clusters | clusters where CDC withholds the rate in 2024 (marked unstable) | tract clusters outside New York City | 2024 |   |   | none (full count) | CDC injury and violence mapping |   |
| xc_hi | +0.95 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the two county rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a rate in both County Health Rankings and the CDC injury panel | County Health Rankings 2024 windows against the injury panel's 2021 modeled rate | 95% CI 0.94 to 0.96 | 1,882 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| xc_lo | +0.87 | correlation coefficient | population-weighted correlation of the two county rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | residents of counties with a rate in both County Health Rankings and the CDC injury panel | County Health Rankings 2024 windows against the injury panel's 2021 modeled rate | 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90 | 2,264 counties | county population | County Health Rankings |   |
| xc_lo_unw | +0.64 | correlation coefficient | unweighted correlation of the two county suicide rates; state-cluster bootstrap interval | the counties with a suicide rate in both County Health Rankings and the CDC injury panel | County Health Rankings 2024 windows against the injury panel's 2021 modeled rate | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.71 | 2,264 counties | none (each county counts once) | County Health Rankings |   |

## Definitions

- Census tract: A small area drawn by the Census Bureau to stand in for a neighborhood. Boundaries are redrawn after each decennial census.
- Modeled estimate: A figure produced by a statistical model instead of a direct count or measurement, usually for small areas where direct data are thin, borrowing strength from surveys, neighboring areas or other data. Neighboring areas can share errors, so single extremes call for caution.
- Area Deprivation Index (ADI): A score that ranks neighborhoods by income, education, employment and housing conditions drawn from the American Community Survey. In this book a higher national percentile means a more deprived neighborhood.
- USALEEP: The U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project, a National Center for Health Statistics release of life expectancy at birth for most census tracts. It covers deaths from 2010 to 2015 only and has not been updated.
- Age-adjusted rate: A rate recalculated as if every place had the same mix of ages, so that places can be compared without the effect of having older or younger residents.
- Population-weighted: Averaged so that each place counts in proportion to its number of residents, which lets a large county move the result more than a small one. An unweighted average counts every place equally.

## Methods

The first four figures describe tract clusters, the unit in which CDC publishes neighborhood firearm homicide rates, using modeled rates averaged over 2022, 2023 and 2024; each cluster's rate is repeated on its member tracts, and New York City is left out. The last four describe counties, using County Health Rankings death rates pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause, so the mix of deaths compares rates measured over different spans, and a county with too few deaths has no rate. Life expectancy covers deaths in 2010 to 2015, earlier than the rates it is compared with. Every comparison describes places and not people.

### Which clusters and years enter the concentration curves

Firearm homicide rates come from the CDC injury and violence tract file, which publishes one rate for each cluster of neighboring tracts (the median tract sits in a cluster of 5) and repeats it on every member tract.

The chapter works on clusters: it keeps one row per cluster, sets a cluster's population to the sum of its tracts' 2019-2023 American Community Survey population, and averages the annual rates for 2022, 2023 and 2024.

A cluster enters only if CDC publishes a rate in all three years; New York City, where the file records almost no deaths, is left out, and a sensitivity check drops the clusters of the counties where the cluster rates imply under 30% of the county file's deaths.

Explains Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3.

### How implied deaths and the curves are computed

Implied deaths are the rate times the cluster's residents. Clusters are ranked from the highest rate and the curve accumulates residents and implied deaths.

Explains Table 1, Table 2 and Table 4.

### Where the county death rates come from

County Health Rankings rates are deaths per 100,000 from National Center for Health Statistics records, pooled over windows that end in 2021 and differ by cause (2019 to 2021 for overdose and premature mortality, 2017 to 2021 for suicide, 2015 to 2021 for homicide and motor-vehicle crashes); premature mortality and suicide are age-adjusted, and the overdose, homicide, motor-vehicle, firearm and child mortality rates are crude (the cause mix and the leading-kind map use CHR's crude suicide rate so that four rates share one basis).

A county is missing a rate when it has fewer than 10 deaths in the window (20 for premature mortality).

Race-specific rates are county rates for non-Hispanic Black and white residents, averaged over counties that publish both, each group weighted by its residents.

Explains Table 5, Table 6, Table 7 and Table 8.

### How deprivation and life expectancy are measured

County deprivation is the mean of tract Area Deprivation Index national ranks weighted by tract population; Connecticut tracts map to the eight legacy counties.

Life expectancy is the National Center for Health Statistics estimate for deaths in 2010 to 2015, area-weighted onto 2020 tracts, with institutional tracts left out.

Explains Table 4 and Table 5.

### How uncertainty is measured

Intervals for national concentration statistics come from a bootstrap that draws whole counties with replacement, and those for one county from a bootstrap that draws clusters, 2,000 replicates with seed 12345, as percentile intervals.

Decile means, shares and correlations across counties come from a bootstrap that draws whole states with replacement, 2,000 replicates, seed 12345, weighted by county population.

Explains Table 1, Table 2, Table 6 and Table 7.

### Four rankings of the same places

The comparison follows the book's ranking switch rule, fixed on October 28, 2026 before any of these gradients was computed. The main gradient of the chapter is recomputed under four rankings of the same places, with the outcome, period, weights, bins and intervals unchanged: the published ADI; a standardized index that applies the ADI's coefficients to its measures after standardizing each one across tracts; median household income; and the share of adults 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more. The three alternatives come from ACS tract estimates for 2019 to 2023, the period of the ADI.

All four rankings use the same places, the 3,080 counties that have the outcome and all four rankings, so the ADI panel can differ slightly from the chapter's main figure. Tracts enter only if they have every input of the standardized index, which leaves out tracts without a median rent, home value or mortgage cost. A county takes the population-weighted mean of the ranks of its common-sample tracts, with Connecticut tracts assigned to its eight legacy counties, as for the county ADI.

A pattern counts as changed when the worse end switches sides, when the two ends differ under one ranking and not the other, or when the rank correlation of bin order and bin mean falls on the other side of 0.9 and moves by at least 0.1.

Explains Table 9.

## What these data cannot show

The firearm homicide figures describe tract clusters, and CDC's rates for them are modeled estimates, so they say nothing about single tracts, blocks or people. The curves and the Cook County map average over clusters of neighboring tracts, which lowers measured concentration, and the cluster file's implied deaths fall short of the county file's, so the figures describe shares and not totals. New York City is absent, four more counties have clusters that imply a small share of the county file's deaths, and the clusters where CDC withholds a rate are left out, with more withheld for the provisional year 2024. The fill check bounds the last exclusion and cannot remove it.

Every comparison across places is ecological. The life expectancy of Cook County's highest-rate tenth comes from deaths in 2010 to 2015 and the rates from 2022 to 2024, so the data cannot say whether firearm homicide shortened these lives or whether the same conditions underlie both. County gradients and correlations describe counties, and the homicide and rural-share correlation differs with the weighting and depends on which counties report, so a correlation across counties says little about the people in them. The Area Deprivation Index understates deprivation in high-cost cities, and it is built from survey measures that overlap with several outcome measures.

County Health Rankings leaves out counties with few deaths, so the mix of deaths and the map of the highest-rate kind speak for the larger counties. The rates in those two figures are crude, so a county with an older population has a higher rate for the same risk, and the correlation figure mixes crude and age-adjusted measures, which its row labels state. The race-specific rates are a composite of reporting counties and not national rates, and the cross-check against the injury panel compares two compilations of the same death records. Outside the box above, nothing in this chapter supports a claim about what changes violence.

## References

1. Weisburd, David (2015). The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place. Criminology 53(2): 133-157. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12070
2. Braga, Anthony A.; Weisburd, David; Turchan, Brandon (2018). Focused deterrence strategies and crime control: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical evidence. Criminology & Public Policy 17(1): 205-250. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12353
3. Skogan, Wesley G.; Hartnett, Susan M.; Bump, Natalie; Dubois, Jill (2008). Evaluation of CeaseFire-Chicago. National Institute of Justice (NCJ 227181); Northwestern University Institute for Policy Research. https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/evaluation-ceasefire-chicago
4. Ransford, Charles; Williams, Monique; Slutkin, Gary (2025). A systematic review on the effectiveness of the Cure Violence approach. INQUIRY: The Journal of Health Care Organization, Provision, and Financing 62: 00469580251366142. https://doi.org/10.1177/00469580251366142
5. Branas, Charles C.; South, Eugenia; Kondo, Michelle C.; Hohl, Bernadette C.; Bourgois, Philippe; Wiebe, Douglas J.; MacDonald, John M. (2018). Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(12): 2946-2951. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718503115

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 0.1.0
- Build script: book2/chapters/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/build.py (sha256 50358ebb69b0c63622881101bbd7717cac3204b209675430919d65ee9192cdce)
- Built on: 2026-10-07
- Site commit: c2b1ff3309cb4a10833f884da91ac0057a66ad0a

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
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| data/raw/acs/deprivation_components_2019_2023/tract.parquet | 13,197,793 | 5545cde2cbe96a8b56e468d65388248a241aa6bd300d3c9e325d08d3f86b11da | 5c8ec454d066988b0f1a01aaa6ed34ebfc05d162e01cf9c6bb01f9198cbaff12 |
| data/staged/adi/adi_atlas_tract2020_2023.parquet | 798,078 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 | 5e409bc212ff871def780fa27b4cf8b616d9da420b2b9f6455517eddcd8c1a95 |
| data/staged/crosswalks/ct_tract2020_to_old_county.parquet | 15,842 | 961ef39f31596ef65fca2c67d5f2f63e533c5dc9b49745d3bb6437844e4b831d | 961ef39f31596ef65fca2c67d5f2f63e533c5dc9b49745d3bb6437844e4b831d |
| data/staged/health/chr_county_2024.parquet | 8,776,933 | 619795f7ecfec8aff10694b649eaee5e421dbeffbe4be47af4161b51ceefa5cd | c69357f1bcf630407bb9716cb445618838999558c019aaaf77d4681b6bf45c56 |
| data/staged/life_expectancy/usaleep_tract2020.parquet | 1,316,169 | 9c9c7f103791b75eddba74e68a89804efdf2486b6b66bb4bc02a46ba5bf8bc23 | 27317107be2465d9fd5e83271dea0cd6e915ee419e2802bedc28747d0a41d38f |
| data/staged/mortality/injury_violence_county.parquet | 722,427 | d0dfd060a3ab9eaa3a87b35d1b24b5a1e9f21af3513c10367edb651c46f40403 | d0dfd060a3ab9eaa3a87b35d1b24b5a1e9f21af3513c10367edb651c46f40403 |
| data/staged/mortality/injury_violence_tract2020.parquet | 8,059,686 | 48f2a99135501cb7c8c7af7c85361808bd998eb4ab06825759340a1befc5f4f1 | e2e5d28442025676279f349563e0eef9235b013d40007e081ba9671697d04b49 |
| data/staged/ses/acs5_tract2020_2019_2023.parquet | 7,232,424 | 5fe6f730a35225f14d5d8abfc6b9bce58b52e545f309a7eac74f1dae74d7a31c | 7b4a2475b3852d3f91804716a04566ef8ceadacec2be9fb85f5eb642078efac6 |
| data/staged/svi/svi_tract2020_2022.parquet | 17,740,415 | cb3860d8edc2aaf1f2a02211a58f7a0b80457eb6ad9a37b5ec8abb2d5da9da10 | e371a4a696d5bed05d54ad7c5b6ca2504508805b847ec415c2322be7f66ec2b2 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 3e69869e30dd34d1912643bf04bf67c57c394e53032fca8b0d878efe9f9a2242 |
| figures/alt_rankings.json | caae3d0ba756606aa3c3be21d3cb4a42d1b4f1c5a131b8213e6ceb0d65616748 |
| figures/cause_correlations.json | 31df8dd62dca3ea410ee4e0133badba7219b35aaf5d760242ac7540f41423e1c |
| figures/cause_mix_by_quintile.json | 56d6d080aa8bca7f95329e1fb06eb381518b3f3b7de7da88a660e632b31c0f1b |
| figures/chicago_homicide_map.json | 191f47e20373da8319145c987449663f86facd5eefa9e18418538c970d2d9610 |
| figures/cook_deciles.json | 7e88b81b16c56e130a2ba528c99f92c56f8fb4d9fc286b80e479c4f8ff1d87cb |
| figures/county_concentration.json | 931ee02bf8258befcf001fc0f0b4f6312e284bfa0820abdd1445e2f099afa0f5 |
| figures/dominant_cause_map.json | 3fd940d7605940e2ab1b58e0ed55ebf5af0756d6b8ad5f47e3c471154b0099b9 |
| figures/national_concentration.json | c3d61facf072989e1e93e9546f0acc3929a0f51eb568464e58d5d175977f4ff4 |
| figures/premature_death_gradient.json | 9f6caebfdf9bf42e3502ddab55fa820d9a160aa265130d037db8ac7f0cdd33f3 |
| meta.json | 5e1e38da016a6630107880e0c507280877bc3c6400125f64f03753a4f964dcb0 |
| public/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/chicago_homicide_map.json | f137e61f1d729372d707ce651b766566744577940436937023b5f801e6724b46 |
| public/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/dominant_cause_map.json | 02083449d1f78f996a0b0a68fba9fbda4367ec85910a12bf9b69347daa9cc21b |
| refs.json | a5bd6c46293c4572475be2397d03e1a3cb3d77e234f4d9b70191af695160bb22 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "national_concentration" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/national_concentration.json
- Table 2, figure "county_concentration" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/county_concentration.json
- Table 3, figure "chicago_homicide_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/chicago_homicide_map.json
- Table 4, figure "cook_deciles" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cook_deciles.json
- Table 5, figure "premature_death_gradient" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/premature_death_gradient.json
- Table 6, figure "cause_mix_by_quintile" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cause_mix_by_quintile.json
- Table 7, figure "cause_correlations" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/cause_correlations.json
- Table 8, figure "dominant_cause_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/dominant_cause_map.json
- Table 9, figure "alt_rankings" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/report/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/figures/alt_rankings.json
- Payload of "chicago_homicide_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/chicago_homicide_map.json
- Payload of "dominant_cause_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/data/gun-homicide-and-causes-of-early-death/dominant_cause_map.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/zipcode/llms-full.txt