# The two coalitions: report

Chapter 3.2 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: The two coalitions
- Chapter: 3.2 (Part III, Participation and coalitions; Coalitions and political differences)
- Question: How has the composition of each party's voters changed by education, income, race, religion, age and gender?
- Dek: Voters with a four-year degree rose from 19.2% to 43.4% of Democratic voters in the ANES between the presidential elections of 1976 to 1988 and those of 2012 to 2024.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-10-03
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. Cumulative Data File, presidential years 1952 to 2024; years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight_postelection where available, else VCF0009z
  - ANES 2024 Time Series. 2024 Time Series, summary religion code, one comparison with the CES; years: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews); weights: V240107b
  - Cooperative Election Study. Cumulative Common Content, presidential years 2008 to 2024; years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years); weights: weight_cumulative
  - CPS Voting and Registration Supplement. November Voting and Registration Supplement, presidential years 1996 to 2024 (and 1976 to 1988 for one comparison), adults aged 18 or older; years: 1976-2024 (25 November samples, biennial, even years); weights: VOSUPPWT
  - State presidential returns. State presidential returns 1976 to 2024, certified national two-party share; years: 1976-2024 (13 elections); weights: none (full counts)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026thetwocoalitions

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026thetwocoalitions,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The two coalitions},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 19.2% | 95% CI 17.5% to 20.9% | 2,173 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_d0 |
| weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 43.4% | 95% CI 42.0% to 44.8% | 9,449 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_d1 |
| weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 25.2% | 95% CI 23.5% to 26.9% | 2,563 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_r0 |
| weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 31.4% | 95% CI 29.9% to 32.8% | 7,156 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_r1 |
| weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 39.2% | 95% CI 36.2% to 42.2% | 1,063 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_v0 |
| weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 62.0% | 95% CI 60.6% to 63.5% | 7,626 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | deg_v1 |
| weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are white non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 39.4% | 95% CI 37.8% to 40.9% | 4,030 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | wh_v0 |
| weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are white non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 44.4% | 95% CI 43.2% to 45.6% | 12,097 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | wh_v1 |
| earlier minus later share of Democratic voters; independent periods, standard errors combined | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 14.7 | 95% CI 12.3 to 17.1 |   | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File | wh_dchg |
| count of respondents with a positive vote weight | ANES respondents who reported a Democratic or Republican presidential vote | 1952 to 2024 | 34,423 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_anes_voters |
| count of elections | ANES presidential elections 1952 to 2024 | 1952 to 2024 | 19 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File | n_anes_years |
| count of respondents with a positive weight | CES respondents who reported a Democratic or Republican presidential vote | 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 | 188,145 |   |   | none (count) | Cooperative Election Study | n_ces_voters |
| lowest age in the youngest band | definition of an age band | all years | 18 |   |   | none (definition) | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement | age_lo |

## Findings

In the American National Election Studies (ANES), voters with a four-year degree made up 19.2% (95% CI 17.5% to 20.9%) of Democratic voters in the presidential elections of 1976 to 1988 and 43.4% (95% CI 42.0% to 44.8%) of those in 2012 to 2024. Among Republican voters the share went from 25.2% (95% CI 23.5% to 26.9%) to 31.4% (95% CI 29.9% to 32.8%).

Those are shares of a party's voters, and the party is the denominator. The other denominator is the group: over the same two periods the Democratic share among degree holders rose from 39.2% (95% CI 36.2% to 42.2%) to 62.0% (95% CI 60.6% to 63.5%). The two numbers answer different questions, and a change in one does not identify a change in the other. They can also move in opposite directions. White voters were 39.4% (95% CI 37.8% to 40.9%) Democratic in 1976 to 1988 and 44.4% (95% CI 43.2% to 45.6%) in 2012 to 2024, a rise, while their share of Democratic voters fell by 14.7 points. The chapter keeps the two denominators apart throughout, and it keeps apart four populations that are easy to blur: eligible adults, voters, party identifiers and nonvoters.

Three surveys carry the evidence. The ANES Cumulative Data File has presidential vote and demographics for every election from 1952 to 2024, with 34,423 respondents in 19 elections who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican candidate. The Cooperative Election Study (CES), an online panel, has 188,145 such respondents from 2008 to 2024 and finer religious and racial categories. The Current Population Survey (CPS) voting supplement records no vote choice. The chapter uses it for one purpose, the make-up of citizens aged 18 or older, who are the eligible adults here, and of the voters among them, in the presidential elections from 1996 to 2024. (Note: Every interval is a 95% confidence interval. Shares use the Kish effective sample size [1] and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample, which leaves out the stages of each sample design. The CES is an opt-in panel and the CPS extract carries no replicate weights, so their intervals are narrower than a design-based interval would be. The terms of the two decompositions come from a seeded bootstrap, described in the methods note.) A voter in the ANES and the CES is a respondent who reported voting for one of the two major-party candidates; third-party voters and nonvoters are outside that frame, which is why a party's group shares sum to a whole. A party identifier is a respondent who calls themselves a Democrat or a Republican and counts leaners.

### A group's Democratic share and its share of Democratic voters differ

In the 2024 CES, 43.5% (95% CI 42.7% to 44.4%) of white voters supported the Democratic candidate, and white voters made up 64.3% (95% CI 63.3% to 65.3%) of Democratic voters. Black voters supported the Democratic candidate at 81.9% (95% CI 79.8% to 84.0%), the highest rate of any racial or ethnic group, and made up 15.6% (95% CI 14.8% to 16.3%) of Democratic voters. The first group leans Republican and is a majority of the coalition because it is 72.3% of all voters. The second is overwhelmingly Democratic and a small part of the coalition because it is 9.3% of all voters. Table 1 shows both numbers for every group in the CES.

Table 1. In 2024 white voters leaned Republican and still made up most of the Democratic coalition

For a group $g$, the share of Democratic voters who belong to it is

$$c_D(g) = s(g)\,\frac{d(g)}{D},$$

where $s(g)$ is the group's share of all voters, $d(g)$ is the share of the group's voters who vote Democratic and $D$ is the Democratic share of all voters. The ratio $d(g)/D$ is the group's relative lean. The share of Republican voters who belong to the group is the same product with Republican shares in place of Democratic ones. Axelrod's account of the party coalitions from 1952 to 1968 used the same arithmetic, breaking a group's contribution to a party's vote into its size, its turnout and its loyalty [2]. A group can become a larger part of a coalition because it grew, because it leans further toward the party, or both, and its share of the coalition can fall while its Democratic share rises. The rest of the chapter applies this arithmetic to education, income, race, religion, age and sex, and then to the surveys' disagreements.

### Eligible adults, voters, party identifiers and nonvoters differ in make-up

Eligible adults are citizens aged 18 or older. Voters are the eligible adults who voted, party identifiers are people who identify with a party whether or not they vote, and nonvoters are eligible adults who did not vote. (Note: The definition of eligible adults here excludes noncitizens, whom the CPS identifies from 1994, and keeps everyone else, including adults who are barred from voting for other reasons [3]. The CPS counts a respondent who gave no turnout answer as a nonvoter, the Census convention, which Hur and Achen examine [4]. Turnout is self-reported in all three surveys.) In the CPS, 37.1% (95% CI 36.7% to 37.5%) of eligible adults held a four-year degree in 2024 and 44.9% (95% CI 44.4% to 45.4%) of voters did. In every presidential election from 1996 to 2024 voters were more likely than eligible adults to hold a degree and less likely to be in the youngest age band, ages 18 to 29 (Table 2). The degree-holding share of eligible adults rose from 22.3% (95% CI 22.0% to 22.6%) in 1996 to 37.1% (95% CI 36.7% to 37.5%) in 2024 and that of voters from 29.4% (95% CI 29.0% to 29.8%) to 44.9% (95% CI 44.4% to 45.4%), a rise of 15.5 (95% CI 14.8 to 16.2) points. A gap between voters and eligible adults at one date is a snapshot and does not split that rise, so the chapter splits it. Had degree holders and other adults kept their 1996 turnout rates, degree holders would have been 46.1% (95% CI 45.5% to 46.7%) of 2024 voters. On that counterfactual the growth of the group among eligible adults accounts for +16.7 (95% CI 16.1 to 17.3) points of the rise and the change in relative turnout for −1.2 (95% CI −1.6 to −0.8) points. Chapter 3.1, Turnout (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/turnout) reports turnout rates by group.

Table 2. In every presidential election since 1996 voters were more likely than eligible adults to hold a four-year degree and less likely to be in the youngest age band

Party identifiers are a third population. Table 3 compares the 2024 ANES populations, with party identifiers in the lower rows. Degree holders were 50.0% (95% CI 47.0% to 53.0%) of Democratic voters and 43.3% (95% CI 40.5% to 46.1%) of Democratic identifiers, against 27.8% (95% CI 24.8% to 30.9%) of Republican voters and 27.2% (95% CI 24.7% to 29.8%) of Republican identifiers. Among nonvoters the share was 15.7% (95% CI 12.3% to 19.2%), and among independents with no party lean it was 18.2% (95% CI 12.5% to 23.9%). Democratic voters are more likely than Democratic identifiers to hold a degree, and Republican voters and identifiers differ little. A statement about Democrats can refer to any of the Democratic rows, so the chapter says which one it means: voters, except in this figure.

Table 3. Democratic voters are more likely than Democratic identifiers to hold a four-year degree, and nonvoters are less likely than voters

### The Democratic coalition gained degree holders and the highest income third

In 1976 the Republican coalition had the larger share of voters with a four-year degree, 24.2% (95% CI 20.9% to 27.6%) of Republican voters against 13.8% (95% CI 11.1% to 16.4%) of Democratic voters. It also had the larger share of voters in the highest third of the income distribution, 49.4% (95% CI 45.3% to 53.4%) against 33.5% (95% CI 29.8% to 37.3%). By 2024 both differences had reversed: 50.0% (95% CI 47.0% to 53.0%) of Democratic voters held a degree against 27.8% (95% CI 24.8% to 30.9%) of Republican voters, and 49.7% (95% CI 46.5% to 52.8%) against 39.9% (95% CI 36.4% to 43.4%) were in the highest income third (Table 4). The income measure is relative: the ANES assigns each respondent to a percentile group of household income within the year's sample, and the chapter uses thirds. The thirds are not constant shares of the electorate, and the highest third was 38.6% (95% CI 37.1% to 40.0%) of voters in 1976 to 1988 and 42.9% (95% CI 41.8% to 43.9%) in 2012 to 2024. Chapter 3.5, The income ladder (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-income-ladder) follows the vote by dollar bracket in the CES.

Table 4. The Republican coalition once had the larger shares of degree holders and of high-income voters, and by 2024 the Democratic coalition did

The trend figure uses single elections. For comparisons between two periods, the chapter pools four elections at each end, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024, so that small groups have enough respondents, and it gives each election the same weight. By that comparison the degree-holding share of Democratic voters rose by 24.2 (95% CI 22.0 to 26.4) points and that of Republican voters by 6.2 (95% CI 4.0 to 8.5) points, a smaller rise (Table 5, education view). The highest income third went from 30.9% (95% CI 28.8% to 32.9%) to 42.6% (95% CI 41.1% to 44.0%) of Democratic voters and from 45.1% (95% CI 43.0% to 47.1%) to 43.3% (95% CI 41.7% to 44.8%) of Republican voters. The change in the highest third's share of Democratic voters splits into a group-size term of +3.9 (95% CI 2.3 to 5.5) points and a relative-lean term of +7.8 (95% CI 6.0 to 9.6) points, and for Republican voters into +4.7 (95% CI 2.7 to 6.7) and −6.5 (95% CI −8.2 to −4.8) (Table 7, income views). The CES, which starts in 2008, shows the same direction for Democratic voters: the degree-holding share went from 31.2% (95% CI 30.2% to 32.3%) in 2008 to 47.9% (95% CI 46.9% to 49.0%) in 2024. Whether the Republican share rose or fell since 2008 depends on the survey, a disagreement taken up near the end.

Table 5. Four-year degree holders rose from 19.2% to 43.4% of Democratic voters and from 25.2% to 31.4% of Republican voters

### Both coalitions became less white, and both became less Protestant

White non-Hispanic voters were 72.7% (95% CI 70.8% to 74.6%) of Democratic voters and 94.8% (95% CI 93.9% to 95.7%) of Republican voters in 1976 to 1988, and 58.0% (95% CI 56.6% to 59.4%) and 85.9% (95% CI 84.8% to 87.0%) in 2012 to 2024. The groups that grew were Hispanic voters and voters of other races, who went from 7.3% (95% CI 6.2% to 8.4%) to 22.1% (95% CI 20.9% to 23.3%) of Democratic voters and from 3.9% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.6%) to 12.5% (95% CI 11.5% to 13.5%) of Republican voters. Black voters were 20.0% (95% CI 18.3% to 21.7%) of Democratic voters in the first period and 19.9% (95% CI 18.7% to 21.0%) in the second, and a small share of Republican voters in both. Chapter 3.3, Hispanic, Black and Asian voters (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/hispanic-black-and-asian-voters; planned) follows how those groups voted.

Protestants were 59.5% (95% CI 57.4% to 61.6%) of Democratic voters in 1976 to 1988 and 36.0% (95% CI 34.5% to 37.6%) in 2012 to 2020, and 68.8% (95% CI 67.0% to 70.7%) and 52.3% (95% CI 50.5% to 54.0%) of Republican voters. The ANES cumulative file cannot separate voters with no religion from those with a religion outside the three it names, and its 2024 religion codes are unusable. The later period therefore ends in 2020, and the last category is Jewish, another religion or none. The CES separates them. Voters with no religion went from 35.7% (95% CI 34.7% to 36.8%) of Democratic voters in 2012 to 45.0% (95% CI 43.9% to 46.0%) in 2024, and from 14.5% (95% CI 13.7% to 15.2%) to 17.7% (95% CI 16.8% to 18.5%) of Republican voters. Chapter 3.8, The god gap in America (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-god-gap-in-america) covers the gap between frequent and infrequent attenders, and Planned, The rise of the nones (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-rise-of-the-nones; planned) covers the religiously unaffiliated.

### The oldest age band grew in both coalitions and women's share fell

Voters in the oldest age band, ages 65 and over, rose from 19.0% (95% CI 17.3% to 20.7%) to 22.3% (95% CI 21.1% to 23.5%) of Democratic voters and from 18.5% (95% CI 16.9% to 20.0%) to 25.4% (95% CI 24.0% to 26.8%) of Republican voters. The rise is in step with the aging of the electorate: the CPS puts that band at 15.9% (95% CI 15.7% to 16.0%) of adults in 1976 to 1988 and 21.9% (95% CI 21.8% to 22.1%) in 2012 to 2024. In 1976 to 1988 the two coalitions had a similar age profile, with the youngest band at 19.2% (95% CI 17.6% to 20.9%) of Democratic voters and 18.9% (95% CI 17.4% to 20.5%) of Republican voters. In 2012 to 2024 the shares were 18.5% (95% CI 17.4% to 19.6%) and 13.1% (95% CI 12.0% to 14.2%), so the Republican coalition had become the older of the two. Chapter 3.7, Age and generation (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/age-and-generation) separates age from birth cohort.

Women were 58.6% (95% CI 56.5% to 60.7%) of Democratic voters and 53.2% (95% CI 51.2% to 55.2%) of Republican voters in 1976 to 1988 and 55.5% (95% CI 54.0% to 56.9%) and 49.6% (95% CI 48.0% to 51.1%) in 2012 to 2024. Their share of both coalitions fell by about the same amount even though the Democratic share among women rose from 48.4% (95% CI 46.4% to 50.3%) to 56.9% (95% CI 55.5% to 58.4%). The fall is a group-size change: women were 55.7% (95% CI 54.2% to 57.1%) of ANES voters in the earlier window and 52.8% (95% CI 51.7% to 53.8%) in the later one. The CPS, over the same two windows, shows women at 53.1% (95% CI 52.9% to 53.3%) of voters in 1976 to 1988 and 53.3% (95% CI 53.1% to 53.6%) in 2012 to 2024, with no change beyond sampling error. The ANES figure for the earlier window is above the CPS figure, and the ANES fall belongs to that window. Chapter 3.6, The gender gap in attitudes and votes (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-gender-gap) covers the vote gap between women and men.

### The Democratic share rose most among degree holders

Table 6 turns to the other denominator, the Democratic share of each group's voters, for the same two periods. Among degree holders the share rose from 39.2% (95% CI 36.2% to 42.2%) to 62.0% (95% CI 60.6% to 63.5%), a rise of 22.8 (95% CI 19.5 to 26.1) points, and the rise is larger than that of every other group once sampling error is allowed for. Among the highest income third the share went from 36.7% (95% CI 34.3% to 39.0%) to 54.0% (95% CI 52.3% to 55.7%) and among the youngest age band from 46.4% (95% CI 43.0% to 49.7%) to 62.7% (95% CI 59.5% to 65.8%). The lowest income third and Black voters kept nearly the same Democratic share at high levels, 58.3% and 58.5% for the lowest third and 92.8% and 93.7% for Black voters. Education below a degree is not split further, because the cumulative file defines its lower groups differently after 2016. The Democratic share of all voters rose over these years from 45.9% (95% CI 44.5% to 47.4%) to 54.1% (95% CI 53.1% to 55.2%), so a group whose share rose by less than that, as white voters' did, moved toward the Democratic candidate by less than the electorate. The later elections also lean Democratic against the certified counts, as the last section shows.

Table 6. The Democratic share rose more among four-year degree holders than in any other group

### A coalition share moves with group size and with relative lean

Table 7 splits the change in a coalition share into the two terms of the product and starts with degree holders. Their share of all voters rose from 22.4% (95% CI 21.2% to 23.6%) to 37.9% (95% CI 36.9% to 38.9%). Their Democratic share was 39.2% (95% CI 36.2% to 42.2%) against 45.9% (95% CI 44.4% to 47.3%) for all voters in 1976 to 1988 and 62.0% (95% CI 60.6% to 63.5%) against 54.1% (95% CI 53.1% to 55.2%) in 2012 to 2024. The degree-holding share of Democratic voters rose by 24.2 (95% CI 22.0 to 26.4) points, and the group-size term is +15.5 (95% CI 14.0 to 17.1) points and the relative-lean term +8.8 (95% CI 7.1 to 10.6). Among Republican voters the group-size term is +15.1 (95% CI 13.6 to 16.7), close to the Democratic one, and the lean term is −8.9 (95% CI −10.6 to −7.4). (Note: The terms use the symmetric split of a product: the change in group size times the average relative lean, plus the change in relative lean times the average group size. The split is exact, and its two terms do not depend on which factor is moved first. Kitagawa's standardization of a difference between two rates is built the same way [5]. Intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples respondents within each election.) The group-size term is about the same in both coalitions, and the relative-lean term has opposite signs, positive for Democratic voters and negative for Republican voters. The CES gives the same signs for 2008 to 2024, with a group-size term of +13.1 (95% CI 12.0 to 14.1) points for Democratic voters and +10.8 (95% CI 9.8 to 11.7) for Republican voters and lean terms of +3.5 (95% CI 2.5 to 4.5) and −3.0 (95% CI −4.0 to −1.9).

Table 7. Among Democratic voters the degree-holding share rose through group size (+15.5 points) and relative lean (+8.8 points)

The split for white voters runs the other way. Their share of Democratic voters fell from 72.7% (95% CI 70.8% to 74.6%) to 58.0% (95% CI 56.6% to 59.4%) and their share of Republican voters from 94.8% (95% CI 93.9% to 95.7%) to 85.9% (95% CI 84.8% to 87.0%), so both coalitions became more diverse and the Democratic coalition changed by the larger amount. White non-Hispanic voters fell from 84.7% (95% CI 83.6% to 85.7%) to 70.8% (95% CI 69.8% to 71.7%) of all voters, which gives a group-size term of −11.6 (95% CI −12.8 to −10.4) points for Democratic voters. Their Democratic share rose, from 39.4% (95% CI 37.8% to 40.9%) to 44.4% (95% CI 43.2% to 45.6%), but by less than the Democratic share of all voters, so their relative lean fell and that term is −3.1 (95% CI −4.6 to −1.5) points. Among Republican voters the group-size term is −16.2 (95% CI −17.8 to −14.5) points and the lean term is +7.3 (95% CI 5.7 to 8.9). A group's share of all voters is its share of adults weighted by its turnout, so the CPS bears on the group-size term. Over the same two windows, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024, the degree-holding share rose by 18.9 (95% CI 18.6 to 19.2) points among voters and by 17.0 (95% CI 16.8 to 17.2) points among adults aged 18 or older. Growth of the group among adults therefore accounts for most of the rise among voters. Before 1994 the CPS does not record citizenship, so the earlier window counts all residents and the later window counts citizens.

### A change in a group's vote share does not identify persuasion

The Democratic share of all voters rose from 45.9% (95% CI 44.5% to 47.4%) to 54.1% (95% CI 53.1% to 55.2%) between the two periods, a rise of 8.2 (95% CI 6.4 to 10.0) points. Table 8 splits that change using cells defined by sex, three racial and ethnic groups and four age bands. The split is an accounting identity under those cells: it divides the change into two parts that sum to it and does not say why either part moved. The mix term, the part that comes from a different make-up of the voters across cells, is +2.9 (95% CI 2.1 to 3.8) points, and the within-cell term is +5.3 (95% CI 3.6 to 6.8) points. The within-cell term is not a measure of persuasion. It includes voters who changed their vote, new voters who replaced those who died, different people voting in the same cell from one election to the next, and changes in how the surveys sampled each cell. Repeated cross-sections cannot separate these.

The within-cell term also contains survey lean. The ANES share minus the certified count averaged +0.2 (95% CI −1.3 to 1.6) points over 1976 to 1988 and +3.0 (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0) over 2012 to 2024, a movement of 2.8 (95% CI 1.0 to 4.6) points. The certified Democratic share rose by 5.4 points between the two sets of elections, and the ANES share by 8.2 (95% CI 6.4 to 10.0). As much as 2.8 points of the within-cell term could therefore come from the surveys' lean and not from a change in how people voted.

Table 8. The mix of voters accounts for +2.9 points of the change in the Democratic share and change within groups of the same sex, race and age for +5.3 points

Inside a narrower group the split can look different. For the rise in the Democratic share among degree holders, the mix term is +1.1 (95% CI −0.1 to 2.9) points and the within-cell term +21.7 (95% CI 18.0 to 24.8), so the sex, race and age make-up of graduates accounts for little of the rise. That does not make the rise persuasion, and the cells do not hold the group's own size fixed: degree holders went from 22.4% to 37.9% of voters. Among voters without a degree the Democratic share barely moved, from 47.8% (95% CI 46.1% to 49.4%) to 49.3% (95% CI 47.9% to 50.8%), and the flat total hides a mix term of +4.7 (95% CI 3.5 to 5.9) points and a within-cell term of −3.2 (95% CI −5.4 to −1.5) points.

Turnout enters in two places. The voters here reported voting, so a group's Democratic share can move because more or fewer of its Democratic-leaning members voted, and a group's share of voters moves with its share of eligible adults and its turnout. The surveys hold no vote preference for nonvoters, so the chapter cannot say how the coalitions would look if they had voted. Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened) separates switching from replacement for ideology by following birth cohorts, which these vote questions are too thin to support.

### The surveys differ on levels, and the differences reach the coalition shares

Self-reported vote can lean toward one party, and the surveys here do not lean equally. In 2024 the ANES gives a Democratic share of the two-party vote of 54.5% (95% CI 52.3% to 56.7%) and the CES gives 49.0% (95% CI 48.2% to 49.7%), against 49.2% in the certified count. The ANES share minus the count averages +3.0 (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0) points over the four elections from 2012 to 2024 and +0.2 (95% CI −1.3 to 1.6) points over those from 1976 to 1988. The ANES changes in vote shares between the two periods are therefore larger than the change in the count. Comparisons of survey reports with voter records are the usual check on self-reported turnout and vote [6], and neither is available for these files.

The composition of voters differs as well (Table 9). In 2024 the CPS gives 44.9% (95% CI 44.4% to 45.4%) of voters with a degree, the ANES 39.9% (95% CI 37.7% to 42.1%) and the CES 41.8% (95% CI 41.1% to 42.5%). The two surveys disagree most about Republican voters. The ANES degree-holding share fell from 36.4% (95% CI 31.6% to 41.1%) in 2008 to 27.8% (95% CI 24.8% to 30.9%) in 2024, a change of −8.5 (95% CI −14.2 to −2.8) points. The CES share rose from 28.2% (95% CI 27.2% to 29.1%) to 35.9% (95% CI 34.9% to 37.0%), a change of +7.8 (95% CI 6.4 to 9.2) points. The ANES mode series show where the fall sits. The 2008 baseline is face to face only. In the web samples the Republican share went from 31.9% (95% CI 28.6% to 35.2%) in 2012 to 30.8% (95% CI 25.9% to 35.7%) in 2024, a change of −1.1 (95% CI −7.0 to 4.8) points whose interval includes zero. In the face-to-face samples it went from 37.9% (95% CI 32.2% to 43.6%) to 25.1% (95% CI 18.2% to 31.9%), a change of −12.8 (95% CI −21.8 to −3.9) points. The fall in the all-mode ANES series is therefore not present in the web samples, which like the CES are collected online, and those samples do not show the CES's rise either.

The within-education vote differs too. In 2024 degree holders voted Democratic at 68.2% (95% CI 65.4% to 71.1%) in the ANES and 56.1% (95% CI 55.1% to 57.2%) in the CES, and voters without a degree at 45.3% (95% CI 42.2% to 48.5%) and 43.8% (95% CI 42.8% to 44.9%). If the 2024 ANES voters had the CPS education mix and kept their within-education vote shares, degree holders would be 55.1% (95% CI 53.4% to 57.2%) of Democratic voters and 32.1% (95% CI 29.8% to 34.1%) of Republican voters, against 50.0% and 27.8% unadjusted. The surveys also differ on race. In 2024 white non-Hispanic voters were 72.3% (95% CI 71.6% to 73.0%) of voters in the CES, 70.6% (95% CI 70.1% to 71.1%) in the CPS and 67.4% (95% CI 65.2% to 69.5%) in the ANES, and Black voters were 9.3% (95% CI 8.9% to 9.7%), 11.5% (95% CI 11.1% to 11.8%) and 11.2% (95% CI 9.8% to 12.7%).

Table 9. The ANES shows the degree-holding share of Republican voters falling after 2008, the CES shows it rising, and the ANES web samples show no change

In the 2024 ANES, degree holders were 54.7% (95% CI 47.8% to 61.7%) of Democratic voters among face-to-face respondents and 51.0% (95% CI 46.2% to 55.8%) among web respondents, and the two intervals overlap. Religion shows a gap too: the 2024 ANES Time Series puts voters with no religion at 34.2% (95% CI 31.1% to 37.2%) of Democratic voters and the CES at 45.0% (95% CI 43.9% to 46.0%). Both surveys show a rise in the degree-holding share of Democratic voters, they disagree about the Republican share, and the levels in either survey are best read as a range.

### What these data cannot show

The surveys interview different people in each election, so the chapter compares groups and not individuals. It cannot say whether a voter changed party, how much of a change comes from older voters leaving the electorate and younger ones entering it, or how much comes from different people turning out. The group terms of the decompositions are arithmetic and describe a split of numbers, not a mechanism, and the within-cell term in particular absorbs every change that the cells do not hold fixed. The split is also sensitive to the groups chosen: degree holders were a smaller share of voters in the first period than in the second.

Vote and turnout are self-reports. The ANES leans Democratic in its late elections, the CES is an opt-in panel whose weights match it to the adult population and not to voters, and the CPS has no vote choice. No survey here measures a party's voters exactly. Nonvoters have no vote preference in these data, third-party voters are outside the two-party frame, and the CES file used here has no validated turnout. The ANES samples of 2012, 2016 and 2024 mix interview modes and the 2020 study has no mode weights, so a change between those elections can include a change of mode. Intervals are model based and leave out the sample designs; the CPS intervals in particular are narrower than the survey's own design-based errors.

Several groups are coarse. Education below a degree is not analysed, because the ANES cumulative file defines its lower groups differently after 2016. The ANES identifies Hispanic respondents from 1966 and has few of them before the 1990s. The early race cells therefore pool Hispanic voters with voters of other races for the coalition shares and drop the other-races group for the vote shares. The relative income thirds do not describe dollar income, and religion in the ANES cumulative file stops at 2020 with four categories. The two periods, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024, were chosen to give each group enough respondents, and a different choice of years would give different numbers. The chapter does not examine why any group's vote changed, how the parties' candidates, issues or campaigns affected it, or how coalitions differ below the national level.

## Tables

### Table 1. In 2024 white voters leaned Republican and still made up most of the Democratic coalition

Two shares for each group of two-party presidential voters in 2024: the Democratic share of the group's voters and the group's share of all Democratic voters, percent; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Dimension | Group | Share | Estimate (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n voters in the denominator | Group's share of all voters (%) | Group's share of Republican voters (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Education | Postgraduate degree | Democratic share of the group's voters | 61.9 | 60.3 | 63.4 | 6,565 | 16.0 | 12.0 |
| Education | Postgraduate degree | Group's share of Democratic voters | 20.3 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 23,517 | 16.0 | 12.0 |
| Education | College graduate | Democratic share of the group's voters | 52.6 | 51.2 | 53.9 | 10,429 | 25.8 | 24.0 |
| Education | College graduate | Group's share of Democratic voters | 27.7 | 26.7 | 28.6 | 23,517 | 25.8 | 24.0 |
| Education | Some college | Democratic share of the group's voters | 47.2 | 45.8 | 48.5 | 14,759 | 31.1 | 32.2 |
| Education | Some college | Group's share of Democratic voters | 30.0 | 29.0 | 30.9 | 23,517 | 31.1 | 32.2 |
| Education | High school or less | Democratic share of the group's voters | 40.0 | 38.3 | 41.6 | 10,255 | 27.1 | 31.8 |
| Education | High school or less | Group's share of Democratic voters | 22.1 | 21.2 | 22.9 | 23,517 | 27.1 | 31.8 |
| Race and ethnicity | White | Democratic share of the group's voters | 43.5 | 42.7 | 44.4 | 31,857 | 72.3 | 80.0 |
| Race and ethnicity | White | Group's share of Democratic voters | 64.3 | 63.3 | 65.3 | 23,517 | 72.3 | 80.0 |
| Race and ethnicity | Black | Democratic share of the group's voters | 81.9 | 79.8 | 84.0 | 3,753 | 9.3 | 3.3 |
| Race and ethnicity | Black | Group's share of Democratic voters | 15.6 | 14.8 | 16.3 | 23,517 | 9.3 | 3.3 |
| Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | Democratic share of the group's voters | 54.7 | 51.9 | 57.6 | 3,564 | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | Group's share of Democratic voters | 11.6 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 23,517 | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| Race and ethnicity | Asian | Democratic share of the group's voters | 63.0 | 58.6 | 67.4 | 1,065 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Race and ethnicity | Asian | Group's share of Democratic voters | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 23,517 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Race and ethnicity | Other | Democratic share of the group's voters | 43.0 | 39.1 | 47.0 | 1,769 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Race and ethnicity | Other | Group's share of Democratic voters | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 23,517 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Religion | Protestant | Democratic share of the group's voters | 32.9 | 31.8 | 34.1 | 14,201 | 36.9 | 48.5 |
| Religion | Protestant | Group's share of Democratic voters | 24.8 | 23.9 | 25.7 | 23,506 | 36.9 | 48.5 |
| Religion | Catholic | Democratic share of the group's voters | 43.3 | 41.6 | 45.0 | 7,973 | 18.5 | 20.6 |
| Religion | Catholic | Group's share of Democratic voters | 16.4 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 23,506 | 18.5 | 20.6 |
| Religion | Jewish | Democratic share of the group's voters | 68.0 | 64.0 | 72.1 | 1,219 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Religion | Jewish | Group's share of Democratic voters | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 23,506 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Religion | Other religion | Democratic share of the group's voters | 45.7 | 43.1 | 48.2 | 4,287 | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| Religion | Other religion | Group's share of Democratic voters | 10.1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 23,506 | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| Religion | No religion | Democratic share of the group's voters | 70.9 | 69.7 | 72.2 | 14,311 | 31.0 | 17.7 |
| Religion | No religion | Group's share of Democratic voters | 45.0 | 43.9 | 46.0 | 23,506 | 31.0 | 17.7 |
| Age | 18 to 29 | Democratic share of the group's voters | 60.6 | 57.6 | 63.6 | 3,082 | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| Age | 18 to 29 | Group's share of Democratic voters | 14.5 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 23,517 | 11.7 | 9.1 |
| Age | 30 to 44 | Democratic share of the group's voters | 55.1 | 53.5 | 56.8 | 7,073 | 23.1 | 20.3 |
| Age | 30 to 44 | Group's share of Democratic voters | 26.1 | 25.1 | 27.0 | 23,517 | 23.1 | 20.3 |
| Age | 45 to 64 | Democratic share of the group's voters | 43.9 | 42.8 | 45.1 | 16,848 | 35.3 | 38.8 |
| Age | 45 to 64 | Group's share of Democratic voters | 31.7 | 30.7 | 32.7 | 23,517 | 35.3 | 38.8 |
| Age | 65 and over | Democratic share of the group's voters | 45.5 | 44.4 | 46.7 | 15,005 | 29.8 | 31.8 |
| Age | 65 and over | Group's share of Democratic voters | 27.7 | 26.8 | 28.6 | 23,517 | 29.8 | 31.8 |
| Gender | Women | Democratic share of the group's voters | 50.8 | 49.8 | 51.8 | 21,759 | 50.7 | 48.7 |
| Gender | Women | Group's share of Democratic voters | 52.9 | 51.8 | 53.9 | 23,300 | 50.7 | 48.7 |
| Gender | Men | Democratic share of the group's voters | 46.6 | 45.5 | 47.8 | 19,998 | 49.3 | 51.3 |
| Gender | Men | Group's share of Democratic voters | 47.1 | 46.1 | 48.2 | 23,300 | 49.3 | 51.3 |

Note: The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals are model based and do not cover how respondents were recruited.

Source: Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, 2024; weighted (weight_cumulative); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/two_denominators.json

### Table 2. In every presidential election since 1996 voters were more likely than eligible adults to hold a four-year degree and less likely to be in the youngest age band

Share of eligible adults (citizens aged 18 or older) and share of voters in each group, percent, by presidential election; CPS voting supplement; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Election | Dimension | Group | Eligible adults (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n eligible | Voters (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n voters | Voters minus eligible (points) | 95% CI low of difference | 95% CI high of difference |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1996 | Education | Less than high school | 16.2 | 15.9 | 16.4 | 84,090 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 50,025 | −5.4 | −5.7 | −5.2 |
| 1996 | Education | High school graduate | 34.4 | 34.1 | 34.8 | 84,090 | 30.5 | 30.0 | 30.9 | 50,025 | −3.9 | −4.2 | −3.6 |
| 1996 | Education | Some college | 27.1 | 26.8 | 27.5 | 84,090 | 29.4 | 28.9 | 29.8 | 50,025 | +2.2 | +1.9 | +2.5 |
| 1996 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 22.3 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 84,090 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 29.8 | 50,025 | +7.1 | +6.9 | +7.4 |
| 1996 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 79.2 | 78.9 | 79.6 | 84,090 | 82.5 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 50,025 | +3.2 | +2.9 | +3.5 |
| 1996 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 84,090 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 50,025 | −1.1 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| 1996 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 84,090 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 50,025 | −1.5 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| 1996 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 84,090 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 50,025 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| 1996 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 84,090 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 50,025 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| 1996 | Age | 18 to 29 | 22.0 | 21.7 | 22.3 | 84,090 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 50,025 | −7.1 | −7.4 | −6.8 |
| 1996 | Age | 30 to 44 | 32.6 | 32.3 | 33.0 | 84,090 | 31.8 | 31.3 | 32.3 | 50,025 | −0.8 | −1.1 | −0.5 |
| 1996 | Age | 45 to 64 | 28.2 | 27.9 | 28.6 | 84,090 | 33.0 | 32.5 | 33.4 | 50,025 | +4.7 | +4.5 | +5.0 |
| 1996 | Age | 65 and over | 17.2 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 84,090 | 20.3 | 19.9 | 20.7 | 50,025 | +3.2 | +2.9 | +3.4 |
| 1996 | Gender | Women | 52.3 | 52.0 | 52.7 | 84,090 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 53.9 | 50,025 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +1.4 |
| 1996 | Gender | Men | 47.7 | 47.3 | 48.0 | 84,090 | 46.6 | 46.1 | 47.1 | 50,025 | −1.1 | −1.4 | −0.8 |
| 2000 | Education | Less than high school | 14.3 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 82,428 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 50,010 | −5.1 | −5.3 | −4.8 |
| 2000 | Education | High school graduate | 33.6 | 33.2 | 33.9 | 82,428 | 29.7 | 29.2 | 30.1 | 50,010 | −3.9 | −4.2 | −3.6 |
| 2000 | Education | Some college | 28.2 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 82,428 | 29.9 | 29.5 | 30.4 | 50,010 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +2.0 |
| 2000 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 23.9 | 23.6 | 24.3 | 82,428 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 50,010 | +7.2 | +7.0 | +7.5 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 77.3 | 77.0 | 77.6 | 82,428 | 80.6 | 80.2 | 81.0 | 50,010 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +3.6 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 11.7 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 82,428 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 50,010 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.3 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 82,428 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 50,010 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −1.7 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 82,428 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 50,010 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| 2000 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 82,428 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 50,010 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| 2000 | Age | 18 to 29 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 21.1 | 82,428 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 50,010 | −6.8 | −7.0 | −6.5 |
| 2000 | Age | 30 to 44 | 30.4 | 30.1 | 30.8 | 82,428 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 30.3 | 50,010 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.3 |
| 2000 | Age | 45 to 64 | 31.5 | 31.1 | 31.8 | 82,428 | 35.8 | 35.4 | 36.3 | 50,010 | +4.4 | +4.1 | +4.7 |
| 2000 | Age | 65 and over | 17.3 | 17.0 | 17.6 | 82,428 | 20.3 | 19.9 | 20.6 | 50,010 | +2.9 | +2.7 | +3.2 |
| 2000 | Gender | Women | 52.5 | 52.1 | 52.9 | 82,428 | 53.6 | 53.1 | 54.1 | 50,010 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +1.5 |
| 2000 | Gender | Men | 47.5 | 47.1 | 47.9 | 82,428 | 46.4 | 45.9 | 46.9 | 50,010 | −1.1 | −1.5 | −0.8 |
| 2004 | Education | Less than high school | 13.0 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 96,452 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 63,052 | −5.0 | −5.2 | −4.8 |
| 2004 | Education | High school graduate | 32.3 | 32.0 | 32.7 | 96,452 | 28.5 | 28.1 | 29.0 | 63,052 | −3.8 | −4.0 | −3.5 |
| 2004 | Education | Some college | 28.7 | 28.3 | 29.0 | 96,452 | 31.0 | 30.5 | 31.4 | 63,052 | +2.3 | +2.0 | +2.5 |
| 2004 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 26.0 | 25.6 | 26.3 | 96,452 | 32.4 | 32.0 | 32.9 | 63,052 | +6.5 | +6.2 | +6.7 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 75.2 | 74.9 | 75.5 | 96,452 | 79.2 | 78.8 | 79.6 | 63,052 | +4.0 | +3.7 | +4.2 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 96,452 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 63,052 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.4 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 96,452 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 63,052 | −2.1 | −2.3 | −2.0 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 96,452 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 63,052 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
| 2004 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 96,452 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 63,052 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| 2004 | Age | 18 to 29 | 20.9 | 20.6 | 21.2 | 96,452 | 16.0 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 63,052 | −4.8 | −5.1 | −4.6 |
| 2004 | Age | 30 to 44 | 27.9 | 27.6 | 28.3 | 96,452 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 27.7 | 63,052 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.4 |
| 2004 | Age | 45 to 64 | 34.1 | 33.8 | 34.4 | 96,452 | 37.6 | 37.2 | 38.1 | 63,052 | +3.5 | +3.3 | +3.8 |
| 2004 | Age | 65 and over | 17.1 | 16.8 | 17.4 | 96,452 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 63,052 | +1.9 | +1.7 | +2.1 |
| 2004 | Gender | Women | 52.2 | 51.8 | 52.6 | 96,452 | 53.5 | 53.1 | 54.0 | 63,052 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +1.6 |
| 2004 | Gender | Men | 47.8 | 47.4 | 48.2 | 96,452 | 46.5 | 46.0 | 46.9 | 63,052 | −1.3 | −1.6 | −1.0 |
| 2008 | Education | Less than high school | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 92,360 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 59,975 | −4.3 | −4.5 | −4.1 |
| 2008 | Education | High school graduate | 31.7 | 31.4 | 32.1 | 92,360 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 27.8 | 59,975 | −4.4 | −4.6 | −4.1 |
| 2008 | Education | Some college | 29.6 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 92,360 | 31.6 | 31.2 | 32.1 | 59,975 | +2.0 | +1.8 | +2.3 |
| 2008 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 27.5 | 27.2 | 27.9 | 92,360 | 34.1 | 33.7 | 34.6 | 59,975 | +6.6 | +6.4 | +6.8 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 73.4 | 73.1 | 73.8 | 92,360 | 76.3 | 75.9 | 76.7 | 59,975 | +2.9 | +2.6 | +3.1 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 11.8 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 92,360 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 59,975 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 92,360 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 59,975 | −2.0 | −2.2 | −1.9 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 92,360 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 59,975 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| 2008 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 92,360 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 59,975 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| 2008 | Age | 18 to 29 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 21.6 | 92,360 | 17.1 | 16.7 | 17.4 | 59,975 | −4.2 | −4.5 | −4.0 |
| 2008 | Age | 30 to 44 | 25.5 | 25.2 | 25.8 | 92,360 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 25.2 | 59,975 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.5 |
| 2008 | Age | 45 to 64 | 35.6 | 35.3 | 36.0 | 92,360 | 38.7 | 38.2 | 39.1 | 59,975 | +3.1 | +2.8 | +3.3 |
| 2008 | Age | 65 and over | 17.6 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 92,360 | 19.5 | 19.1 | 19.8 | 59,975 | +1.8 | +1.6 | +2.0 |
| 2008 | Gender | Women | 52.0 | 51.7 | 52.4 | 92,360 | 53.7 | 53.2 | 54.1 | 59,975 | +1.6 | +1.4 | +1.9 |
| 2008 | Gender | Men | 48.0 | 47.6 | 48.3 | 92,360 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 46.8 | 59,975 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −1.4 |
| 2012 | Education | Less than high school | 10.2 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 94,311 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 59,597 | −3.9 | −4.1 | −3.7 |
| 2012 | Education | High school graduate | 30.4 | 30.1 | 30.7 | 94,311 | 25.9 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 59,597 | −4.5 | −4.8 | −4.3 |
| 2012 | Education | Some college | 30.1 | 29.8 | 30.5 | 94,311 | 31.3 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 59,597 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +1.4 |
| 2012 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 29.3 | 29.0 | 29.7 | 94,311 | 36.6 | 36.2 | 37.0 | 59,597 | +7.3 | +7.0 | +7.5 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 71.1 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 94,311 | 73.7 | 73.3 | 74.1 | 59,597 | +2.7 | +2.4 | +3.0 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 12.0 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 94,311 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 59,597 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 10.8 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 94,311 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 59,597 | −2.4 | −2.6 | −2.2 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 94,311 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 59,597 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| 2012 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 94,311 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 59,597 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 |
| 2012 | Age | 18 to 29 | 21.2 | 20.9 | 21.5 | 94,311 | 15.4 | 15.1 | 15.8 | 59,597 | −5.8 | −6.0 | −5.5 |
| 2012 | Age | 30 to 44 | 24.0 | 23.7 | 24.3 | 94,311 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 59,597 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −0.6 |
| 2012 | Age | 45 to 64 | 35.6 | 35.3 | 36.0 | 94,311 | 39.1 | 38.7 | 39.6 | 59,597 | +3.5 | +3.2 | +3.8 |
| 2012 | Age | 65 and over | 19.1 | 18.9 | 19.4 | 94,311 | 22.3 | 21.9 | 22.7 | 59,597 | +3.2 | +2.9 | +3.4 |
| 2012 | Gender | Women | 52.1 | 51.7 | 52.5 | 94,311 | 53.7 | 53.2 | 54.2 | 59,597 | +1.6 | +1.3 | +1.9 |
| 2012 | Gender | Men | 47.9 | 47.5 | 48.3 | 94,311 | 46.3 | 45.8 | 46.8 | 59,597 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 |
| 2016 | Education | Less than high school | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 93,794 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 58,533 | −4.0 | −4.2 | −3.8 |
| 2016 | Education | High school graduate | 29.2 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 93,794 | 24.6 | 24.2 | 25.0 | 58,533 | −4.7 | −5.0 | −4.4 |
| 2016 | Education | Some college | 29.8 | 29.5 | 30.2 | 93,794 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 31.2 | 58,533 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 31.9 | 31.5 | 32.2 | 93,794 | 39.6 | 39.2 | 40.1 | 58,533 | +7.8 | +7.5 | +8.0 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 68.9 | 68.6 | 69.3 | 93,794 | 73.3 | 72.9 | 73.7 | 58,533 | +4.4 | +4.1 | +4.7 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 12.3 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 93,794 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 58,533 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 11.9 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 93,794 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 58,533 | −2.7 | −2.9 | −2.5 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 93,794 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 58,533 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| 2016 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 93,794 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 58,533 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| 2016 | Age | 18 to 29 | 20.9 | 20.6 | 21.2 | 93,794 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 58,533 | −5.2 | −5.5 | −4.9 |
| 2016 | Age | 30 to 44 | 23.5 | 23.2 | 23.8 | 93,794 | 22.5 | 22.1 | 22.9 | 58,533 | −1.0 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| 2016 | Age | 45 to 64 | 34.6 | 34.3 | 35.0 | 93,794 | 37.6 | 37.1 | 38.0 | 58,533 | +3.0 | +2.7 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | Age | 65 and over | 21.0 | 20.7 | 21.3 | 93,794 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 58,533 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | Gender | Women | 52.0 | 51.6 | 52.4 | 93,794 | 53.6 | 53.2 | 54.1 | 58,533 | +1.6 | +1.3 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | Gender | Men | 48.0 | 47.6 | 48.4 | 93,794 | 46.4 | 45.9 | 46.8 | 58,533 | −1.6 | −1.9 | −1.3 |
| 2020 | Education | Less than high school | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 81,898 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 55,170 | −3.0 | −3.2 | −2.8 |
| 2020 | Education | High school graduate | 29.2 | 28.8 | 29.5 | 81,898 | 24.2 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 55,170 | −4.9 | −5.2 | −4.7 |
| 2020 | Education | Some college | 28.5 | 28.2 | 28.9 | 81,898 | 29.7 | 29.3 | 30.2 | 55,170 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 34.7 | 34.4 | 35.1 | 81,898 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41.9 | 55,170 | +6.7 | +6.5 | +7.0 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 66.9 | 66.5 | 67.2 | 81,898 | 71.0 | 70.6 | 71.5 | 55,170 | +4.2 | +3.9 | +4.5 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 12.4 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 81,898 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 55,170 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.5 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 81,898 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 55,170 | −2.6 | −2.8 | −2.4 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 81,898 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 55,170 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| 2020 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 81,898 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 55,170 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| 2020 | Age | 18 to 29 | 20.3 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 81,898 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | 55,170 | −3.9 | −4.1 | −3.6 |
| 2020 | Age | 30 to 44 | 24.0 | 23.7 | 24.4 | 81,898 | 23.2 | 22.8 | 23.6 | 55,170 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −0.6 |
| 2020 | Age | 45 to 64 | 32.6 | 32.3 | 33.0 | 81,898 | 34.7 | 34.2 | 35.1 | 55,170 | +2.1 | +1.8 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | Age | 65 and over | 23.0 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 81,898 | 25.7 | 25.3 | 26.1 | 55,170 | +2.7 | +2.4 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | Gender | Women | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.3 | 81,898 | 53.1 | 52.7 | 53.6 | 55,170 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | Gender | Men | 48.1 | 47.7 | 48.5 | 81,898 | 46.9 | 46.4 | 47.3 | 55,170 | −1.3 | −1.5 | −1.0 |
| 2024 | Education | Less than high school | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 72,590 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 48,387 | −3.1 | −3.2 | −2.9 |
| 2024 | Education | High school graduate | 28.6 | 28.3 | 29.0 | 72,590 | 23.0 | 22.6 | 23.5 | 48,387 | −5.6 | −5.9 | −5.3 |
| 2024 | Education | Some college | 27.4 | 27.0 | 27.8 | 72,590 | 28.2 | 27.8 | 28.7 | 48,387 | +0.8 | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | Education | Four-year degree or more | 37.1 | 36.7 | 37.5 | 72,590 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 45.4 | 48,387 | +7.8 | +7.5 | +8.1 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 65.5 | 65.1 | 65.9 | 72,590 | 70.6 | 70.1 | 71.1 | 48,387 | +5.1 | +4.8 | +5.4 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 72,590 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 48,387 | −1.0 | −1.2 | −0.8 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 13.9 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 72,590 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 48,387 | −3.1 | −3.4 | −2.9 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Asian or Pacific Islander | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 72,590 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 48,387 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.5 |
| 2024 | Race and ethnicity | Other or multiple races | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 72,590 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 48,387 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| 2024 | Age | 18 to 29 | 19.6 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 72,590 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 15.6 | 48,387 | −4.4 | −4.7 | −4.1 |
| 2024 | Age | 30 to 44 | 24.7 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 72,590 | 23.4 | 23.0 | 23.8 | 48,387 | −1.3 | −1.6 | −1.0 |
| 2024 | Age | 45 to 64 | 31.1 | 30.7 | 31.5 | 72,590 | 33.3 | 32.8 | 33.8 | 48,387 | +2.2 | +1.9 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | Age | 65 and over | 24.6 | 24.2 | 24.9 | 72,590 | 28.1 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 48,387 | +3.5 | +3.3 | +3.8 |
| 2024 | Gender | Women | 51.6 | 51.2 | 52.0 | 72,590 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 53.3 | 48,387 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | Gender | Men | 48.4 | 48.0 | 48.8 | 72,590 | 47.2 | 46.7 | 47.7 | 48,387 | −1.2 | −1.5 | −0.9 |

Views: 2024 (year = 2024); 2020 (year = 2020); 2016 (year = 2016); 2012 (year = 2012); 2008 (year = 2008); 2004 (year = 2004); 2000 (year = 2000); 1996 (year = 1996).

Note: Voters are respondents who said they voted, with the Census convention that a missing turnout answer counts as not voting. The CPS extract has no replicate weights, so the intervals ignore the survey design and are narrower than design-based intervals.

Note: The difference and its interval in the table use a Taylor linearization of the voter share minus the eligible share.

Source: CPS November voting supplement, 1996 to 2024; weighted (VOSUPPWT); citizens aged 18 or older

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/eligible_vs_voters.json

### Table 3. Democratic voters are more likely than Democratic identifiers to hold a four-year degree, and nonvoters are less likely than voters

Share of each ANES population in four groups, percent, 2024 (the buttons show 2020); 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Election | Group | Population | Share (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | All respondents | 34.4 | 32.6 | 36.2 | 5,465 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | All respondents | 64.3 | 62.4 | 66.1 | 5,454 |
| 2024 | Women | All respondents | 51.6 | 49.7 | 53.5 | 5,475 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | All respondents | 23.5 | 21.8 | 25.1 | 5,242 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Nonvoters | 15.7 | 12.3 | 19.2 | 829 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Nonvoters | 53.8 | 49.0 | 58.5 | 829 |
| 2024 | Women | Nonvoters | 51.5 | 46.7 | 56.2 | 832 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Nonvoters | 10.4 | 7.5 | 13.3 | 814 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Voters | 39.8 | 37.7 | 42.0 | 4,083 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Voters | 67.1 | 65.1 | 69.2 | 4,076 |
| 2024 | Women | Voters | 51.5 | 49.3 | 53.7 | 4,091 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Voters | 26.8 | 24.8 | 28.8 | 3,916 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 50.0 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 2,178 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 57.3 | 54.3 | 60.3 | 2,178 |
| 2024 | Women | Democratic voters | 55.6 | 52.6 | 58.6 | 2,181 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 28.6 | 25.8 | 31.4 | 2,104 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 27.8 | 24.8 | 30.9 | 1,725 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 79.5 | 76.7 | 82.2 | 1,719 |
| 2024 | Women | Republican voters | 47.3 | 43.9 | 50.7 | 1,730 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 25.7 | 22.7 | 28.7 | 1,648 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Democratic identifiers | 43.3 | 40.5 | 46.1 | 2,619 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Democratic identifiers | 53.6 | 50.8 | 56.4 | 2,621 |
| 2024 | Women | Democratic identifiers | 55.9 | 53.2 | 58.7 | 2,627 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Democratic identifiers | 25.1 | 22.6 | 27.5 | 2,543 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Republican identifiers | 27.2 | 24.7 | 29.8 | 2,436 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Republican identifiers | 77.7 | 75.3 | 80.1 | 2,428 |
| 2024 | Women | Republican identifiers | 46.3 | 43.5 | 49.2 | 2,440 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Republican identifiers | 23.3 | 20.8 | 25.8 | 2,316 |
| 2024 | Four-year degree or more | Independents with no party lean | 18.2 | 12.5 | 23.9 | 378 |
| 2024 | White non-Hispanic | Independents with no party lean | 53.1 | 45.7 | 60.5 | 375 |
| 2024 | Women | Independents with no party lean | 52.3 | 44.9 | 59.7 | 375 |
| 2024 | Age 65 and over | Independents with no party lean | 12.4 | 7.3 | 17.4 | 356 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | All respondents | 36.7 | 35.2 | 38.1 | 8,149 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | All respondents | 65.7 | 64.3 | 67.1 | 8,178 |
| 2020 | Women | All respondents | 51.8 | 50.3 | 53.3 | 8,213 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | All respondents | 22.1 | 20.8 | 23.3 | 7,932 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Nonvoters | 17.2 | 14.1 | 20.3 | 1,022 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Nonvoters | 53.3 | 49.2 | 57.4 | 1,027 |
| 2020 | Women | Nonvoters | 49.8 | 45.8 | 53.9 | 1,031 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Nonvoters | 9.6 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 1,001 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Voters | 40.5 | 38.8 | 42.2 | 6,311 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Voters | 69.4 | 67.8 | 71.0 | 6,343 |
| 2020 | Women | Voters | 52.6 | 50.9 | 54.3 | 6,366 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Voters | 22.4 | 20.9 | 23.8 | 6,155 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 47.1 | 44.7 | 49.5 | 3,461 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 58.1 | 55.8 | 60.5 | 3,481 |
| 2020 | Women | Democratic voters | 54.4 | 52.0 | 56.8 | 3,490 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 21.5 | 19.5 | 23.5 | 3,410 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 32.0 | 29.5 | 34.5 | 2,526 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 85.8 | 84.0 | 87.7 | 2,549 |
| 2020 | Women | Republican voters | 50.3 | 47.6 | 53.0 | 2,553 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 24.8 | 22.4 | 27.1 | 2,448 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Democratic identifiers | 42.0 | 39.8 | 44.2 | 3,787 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Democratic identifiers | 52.8 | 50.6 | 55.0 | 3,804 |
| 2020 | Women | Democratic identifiers | 56.5 | 54.3 | 58.7 | 3,816 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Democratic identifiers | 21.4 | 19.6 | 23.2 | 3,732 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Republican identifiers | 33.6 | 31.6 | 35.7 | 3,394 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Republican identifiers | 82.7 | 81.0 | 84.4 | 3,409 |
| 2020 | Women | Republican identifiers | 47.6 | 45.4 | 49.8 | 3,425 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Republican identifiers | 24.5 | 22.6 | 26.4 | 3,289 |
| 2020 | Four-year degree or more | Independents with no party lean | 26.4 | 22.5 | 30.3 | 943 |
| 2020 | White non-Hispanic | Independents with no party lean | 55.3 | 50.9 | 59.6 | 946 |
| 2020 | Women | Independents with no party lean | 48.2 | 43.8 | 52.6 | 949 |
| 2020 | Age 65 and over | Independents with no party lean | 16.1 | 12.8 | 19.4 | 897 |

Views: 2024 (year = 2024); 2020 (year = 2020).

Note: Party identifiers include leaners (seven-point party identification, 1 to 3 Democratic, 5 to 7 Republican); independents with no party lean are the midpoint.

Note: A Democratic voter or identifier appears in more than one row, because the rows are overlapping populations.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 2020 and 2024; weighted (weight for all respondents and party identifiers, weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/population_ladder.json

### Table 4. The Republican coalition once had the larger shares of degree holders and of high-income voters, and by 2024 the Democratic coalition did

Share of each party's two-party presidential voters who belong to the group, percent, by election, 1952 to 2024; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Group | Party's voters | Election | Share (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n party voters | n in group |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1956 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 507 | 39 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1960 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 12.4 | 444 | 35 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1964 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 746 | 71 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1968 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 17.6 | 421 | 60 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1972 | 19.1 | 15.8 | 22.3 | 566 | 108 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1976 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 16.4 | 669 | 92 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1980 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 20.6 | 381 | 64 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1984 | 22.1 | 18.7 | 25.5 | 571 | 126 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1988 | 24.8 | 21.2 | 28.4 | 552 | 137 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1992 | 26.2 | 23.1 | 29.3 | 778 | 208 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 1996 | 24.2 | 20.4 | 28.1 | 599 | 179 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2000 | 29.3 | 25.2 | 33.4 | 590 | 222 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2004 | 31.9 | 26.8 | 36.9 | 399 | 143 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2008 | 30.9 | 27.2 | 34.5 | 1,020 | 244 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2012 | 33.3 | 30.7 | 35.9 | 2,469 | 841 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2016 | 43.0 | 39.8 | 46.3 | 1,341 | 691 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2020 | 47.1 | 44.7 | 49.5 | 3,461 | 1,962 |
| Four-year degree or more | Democratic voters | 2024 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 2,178 | 1,316 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1952 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 12.0 | 686 | 67 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1956 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 753 | 85 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1960 | 14.3 | 10.5 | 18.1 | 452 | 65 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1964 | 19.7 | 15.6 | 23.8 | 361 | 71 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1968 | 20.4 | 16.9 | 24.0 | 489 | 100 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1972 | 16.4 | 14.1 | 18.6 | 1,020 | 167 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1976 | 24.2 | 20.9 | 27.6 | 650 | 158 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1980 | 24.1 | 20.4 | 27.9 | 493 | 119 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1984 | 22.5 | 19.6 | 25.4 | 797 | 179 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1988 | 30.2 | 26.6 | 33.8 | 623 | 188 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1992 | 34.8 | 30.8 | 38.9 | 545 | 193 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 1996 | 34.9 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 433 | 181 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2000 | 31.6 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 528 | 207 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2004 | 30.7 | 25.8 | 35.5 | 412 | 146 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2008 | 36.4 | 31.6 | 41.1 | 513 | 156 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2012 | 34.0 | 31.1 | 36.9 | 1,675 | 630 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2016 | 31.7 | 28.6 | 34.8 | 1,230 | 479 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2020 | 32.0 | 29.5 | 34.5 | 2,526 | 1,016 |
| Four-year degree or more | Republican voters | 2024 | 27.8 | 24.8 | 30.9 | 1,725 | 691 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1952 | 91.7 | 89.2 | 94.1 | 492 | 451 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1956 | 93.7 | 91.6 | 95.8 | 508 | 476 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1960 | 92.4 | 89.5 | 95.3 | 444 | 413 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1964 | 87.4 | 85.1 | 89.8 | 748 | 654 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1968 | 79.3 | 75.5 | 83.2 | 421 | 334 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1972 | 76.0 | 72.4 | 79.5 | 566 | 430 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1976 | 81.6 | 78.6 | 84.6 | 661 | 542 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1980 | 70.2 | 65.6 | 74.8 | 383 | 269 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1984 | 71.4 | 67.7 | 75.1 | 574 | 410 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1988 | 66.5 | 62.6 | 70.4 | 561 | 373 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1992 | 69.7 | 66.5 | 72.9 | 792 | 551 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 1996 | 68.5 | 64.3 | 72.6 | 598 | 429 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2000 | 67.9 | 63.7 | 72.2 | 586 | 419 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2004 | 63.0 | 57.8 | 68.3 | 390 | 247 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2008 | 58.9 | 55.0 | 62.8 | 1,019 | 352 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2012 | 58.2 | 55.5 | 60.9 | 2,491 | 1,121 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2016 | 58.3 | 55.1 | 61.5 | 1,343 | 840 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2020 | 58.1 | 55.8 | 60.5 | 3,481 | 2,381 |
| White non-Hispanic | Democratic voters | 2024 | 57.3 | 54.3 | 60.3 | 2,178 | 1,521 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1952 | 98.5 | 97.6 | 99.4 | 686 | 676 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1956 | 97.6 | 96.5 | 98.7 | 755 | 737 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1960 | 96.9 | 95.1 | 98.8 | 451 | 440 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1964 | 100.0 | 98.9 | 100.0 | 360 | 360 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1968 | 98.4 | 97.2 | 99.5 | 490 | 482 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1972 | 97.1 | 96.0 | 98.1 | 1,021 | 991 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1976 | 97.9 | 96.8 | 99.0 | 650 | 637 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1980 | 95.7 | 94.0 | 97.5 | 494 | 473 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1984 | 93.1 | 91.3 | 94.9 | 796 | 741 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1988 | 92.9 | 90.8 | 94.9 | 630 | 585 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1992 | 90.1 | 87.6 | 92.6 | 561 | 505 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 1996 | 93.5 | 90.9 | 96.1 | 433 | 404 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2000 | 88.6 | 85.7 | 91.6 | 527 | 472 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2004 | 86.3 | 82.7 | 90.0 | 410 | 354 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2008 | 92.6 | 90.0 | 95.3 | 511 | 431 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2012 | 89.5 | 87.6 | 91.4 | 1,690 | 1,434 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2016 | 88.6 | 86.5 | 90.8 | 1,232 | 1,105 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2020 | 85.8 | 84.0 | 87.7 | 2,549 | 2,225 |
| White non-Hispanic | Republican voters | 2024 | 79.5 | 76.7 | 82.2 | 1,719 | 1,470 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1952 | 60.2 | 55.8 | 64.5 | 492 | 296 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1956 | 62.0 | 57.8 | 66.2 | 511 | 317 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1960 | 53.8 | 48.3 | 59.3 | 445 | 235 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1964 | 63.6 | 60.2 | 67.0 | 750 | 477 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1968 | 58.9 | 54.2 | 63.6 | 416 | 245 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1972 | 58.9 | 54.9 | 63.0 | 565 | 333 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1976 | 60.7 | 56.9 | 64.5 | 669 | 410 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1980 | 65.3 | 60.5 | 70.1 | 380 | 248 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1984 | 54.2 | 50.1 | 58.3 | 574 | 311 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1988 | 57.5 | 53.5 | 61.6 | 563 | 324 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1992 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 54.9 | 789 | 406 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 1996 | 49.7 | 45.2 | 54.2 | 599 | 301 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2000 | 49.8 | 45.3 | 54.4 | 586 | 290 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2004 | 47.3 | 41.9 | 52.7 | 397 | 191 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2008 | 47.6 | 43.6 | 51.5 | 1,023 | 544 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2012 | 38.0 | 35.3 | 40.7 | 2,491 | 1,066 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2016 | 37.8 | 34.6 | 41.0 | 1,349 | 492 |
| Protestant | Democratic voters | 2020 | 32.5 | 30.3 | 34.7 | 3,509 | 1,118 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1952 | 76.1 | 72.9 | 79.3 | 685 | 521 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1956 | 75.3 | 72.2 | 78.4 | 753 | 567 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1960 | 90.4 | 87.2 | 93.6 | 452 | 407 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1964 | 79.2 | 75.0 | 83.4 | 361 | 286 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1968 | 80.1 | 76.5 | 83.6 | 487 | 390 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1972 | 71.9 | 69.2 | 74.7 | 1,019 | 733 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1976 | 72.7 | 69.2 | 76.2 | 651 | 477 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1980 | 67.8 | 63.7 | 72.0 | 491 | 333 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1984 | 65.6 | 62.3 | 68.9 | 797 | 523 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1988 | 69.8 | 66.3 | 73.4 | 630 | 440 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1992 | 66.4 | 62.5 | 70.3 | 562 | 374 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 1996 | 61.7 | 56.6 | 66.8 | 434 | 271 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2000 | 56.5 | 51.8 | 61.1 | 529 | 301 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2004 | 54.3 | 49.0 | 59.5 | 411 | 222 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2008 | 62.8 | 58.0 | 67.6 | 514 | 301 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2012 | 52.6 | 49.5 | 55.7 | 1,692 | 879 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2016 | 56.0 | 52.7 | 59.3 | 1,238 | 707 |
| Protestant | Republican voters | 2020 | 48.0 | 45.3 | 50.6 | 2,567 | 1,295 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1952 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 14.0 | 490 | 55 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1956 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 15.9 | 502 | 65 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1960 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 15.4 | 446 | 58 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1964 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 14.1 | 749 | 88 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1968 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 20.0 | 420 | 69 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1972 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 16.1 | 564 | 75 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1976 | 17.5 | 14.6 | 20.4 | 666 | 118 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1980 | 21.1 | 17.1 | 25.2 | 383 | 81 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1984 | 17.5 | 14.4 | 20.7 | 570 | 100 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1988 | 19.9 | 16.6 | 23.2 | 563 | 112 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1992 | 23.0 | 20.1 | 26.0 | 793 | 178 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 1996 | 21.0 | 17.3 | 24.6 | 598 | 146 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2000 | 20.2 | 16.5 | 23.8 | 589 | 120 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2004 | 18.3 | 14.1 | 22.5 | 399 | 76 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2008 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 18.6 | 1,014 | 169 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2012 | 19.5 | 17.3 | 21.7 | 2,469 | 507 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2016 | 19.7 | 17.0 | 22.3 | 1,321 | 320 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2020 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 23.5 | 3,410 | 1,029 |
| Age 65 and over | Democratic voters | 2024 | 28.6 | 25.8 | 31.4 | 2,104 | 767 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1952 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 16.7 | 676 | 95 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1956 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 744 | 83 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1960 | 17.9 | 13.7 | 22.0 | 452 | 90 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1964 | 19.7 | 15.6 | 23.8 | 361 | 71 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1968 | 17.2 | 13.9 | 20.6 | 488 | 84 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1972 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 18.0 | 1,015 | 160 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1976 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 21.8 | 648 | 127 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1980 | 19.1 | 15.6 | 22.6 | 492 | 94 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1984 | 16.8 | 14.2 | 19.4 | 793 | 133 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1988 | 19.3 | 16.3 | 22.4 | 631 | 122 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1992 | 21.3 | 17.9 | 24.7 | 564 | 118 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 1996 | 19.1 | 15.0 | 23.3 | 434 | 102 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2000 | 18.6 | 14.9 | 22.3 | 528 | 108 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2004 | 16.7 | 12.8 | 20.6 | 412 | 70 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2008 | 23.7 | 19.4 | 28.0 | 504 | 125 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2012 | 25.5 | 22.8 | 28.2 | 1,679 | 476 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2016 | 25.6 | 22.6 | 28.5 | 1,201 | 359 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2020 | 24.8 | 22.4 | 27.1 | 2,448 | 854 |
| Age 65 and over | Republican voters | 2024 | 25.7 | 22.7 | 28.7 | 1,648 | 623 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1952 | 49.8 | 45.4 | 54.2 | 494 | 246 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1956 | 47.7 | 43.4 | 52.1 | 511 | 244 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1960 | 49.4 | 43.9 | 54.8 | 446 | 220 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1964 | 55.7 | 52.2 | 59.3 | 750 | 418 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1968 | 58.2 | 53.5 | 62.9 | 421 | 245 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1972 | 59.9 | 55.9 | 63.9 | 566 | 339 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1976 | 56.1 | 52.3 | 60.0 | 670 | 378 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1980 | 59.3 | 54.3 | 64.2 | 383 | 227 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1984 | 60.9 | 56.9 | 64.9 | 575 | 350 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1988 | 58.8 | 54.7 | 62.9 | 563 | 331 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1992 | 58.5 | 55.1 | 61.9 | 793 | 462 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 1996 | 60.4 | 56.0 | 64.8 | 600 | 360 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2000 | 60.0 | 55.5 | 64.4 | 590 | 357 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2004 | 55.5 | 50.2 | 60.9 | 399 | 229 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2008 | 59.6 | 55.7 | 63.4 | 1,025 | 631 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2012 | 55.1 | 52.4 | 57.8 | 2,496 | 1,355 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2016 | 56.8 | 53.6 | 60.1 | 1,328 | 777 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2020 | 54.4 | 52.0 | 56.8 | 3,490 | 2,003 |
| Women | Democratic voters | 2024 | 55.6 | 52.6 | 58.6 | 2,181 | 1,256 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1952 | 52.0 | 48.2 | 55.7 | 687 | 357 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1956 | 54.2 | 50.6 | 57.7 | 755 | 409 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1960 | 54.7 | 49.3 | 60.1 | 452 | 249 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1964 | 51.5 | 46.4 | 56.7 | 361 | 186 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1968 | 56.3 | 51.9 | 60.7 | 490 | 276 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1972 | 52.8 | 49.7 | 55.9 | 1,021 | 539 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1976 | 55.9 | 52.0 | 59.8 | 652 | 361 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1980 | 51.6 | 47.2 | 56.0 | 494 | 255 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1984 | 53.2 | 49.7 | 56.6 | 801 | 426 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1988 | 52.4 | 48.5 | 56.3 | 632 | 331 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1992 | 52.1 | 48.0 | 56.3 | 564 | 293 |
| Women | Republican voters | 1996 | 45.2 | 40.0 | 50.4 | 434 | 204 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2000 | 51.2 | 46.5 | 55.9 | 530 | 266 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2004 | 48.5 | 43.2 | 53.7 | 412 | 208 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2008 | 54.6 | 49.6 | 59.5 | 514 | 282 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2012 | 49.9 | 46.8 | 53.0 | 1,692 | 818 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2016 | 50.7 | 47.4 | 54.0 | 1,230 | 610 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2020 | 50.3 | 47.6 | 53.0 | 2,553 | 1,311 |
| Women | Republican voters | 2024 | 47.3 | 43.9 | 50.7 | 1,730 | 825 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1952 | 43.4 | 39.0 | 47.8 | 488 | 212 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1956 | 32.9 | 28.7 | 37.0 | 496 | 163 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1960 | 41.8 | 36.4 | 47.2 | 443 | 191 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1964 | 35.7 | 32.2 | 39.2 | 725 | 259 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1968 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 40.4 | 411 | 147 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1972 | 33.2 | 29.2 | 37.1 | 552 | 183 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1976 | 33.5 | 29.8 | 37.3 | 626 | 217 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1980 | 28.1 | 23.4 | 32.9 | 345 | 97 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1984 | 28.7 | 24.8 | 32.6 | 526 | 151 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1988 | 32.3 | 28.2 | 36.3 | 514 | 166 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1992 | 34.0 | 30.6 | 37.4 | 742 | 256 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 1996 | 31.6 | 27.2 | 36.0 | 549 | 164 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2000 | 34.0 | 29.4 | 38.6 | 504 | 164 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2004 | 32.7 | 27.4 | 38.0 | 364 | 111 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2008 | 24.9 | 21.4 | 28.4 | 958 | 180 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2012 | 31.7 | 29.1 | 34.3 | 2,429 | 677 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2016 | 42.2 | 38.9 | 45.4 | 1,330 | 536 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2020 | 46.7 | 44.3 | 49.1 | 3,451 | 1,240 |
| Highest third of income | Democratic voters | 2024 | 49.7 | 46.5 | 52.8 | 2,026 | 817 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1952 | 50.1 | 46.4 | 53.9 | 674 | 338 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1956 | 37.9 | 34.4 | 41.5 | 720 | 273 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1960 | 44.3 | 38.9 | 49.7 | 450 | 208 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1964 | 51.4 | 46.2 | 56.7 | 348 | 179 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1968 | 38.2 | 33.8 | 42.5 | 482 | 184 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1972 | 41.0 | 38.0 | 44.1 | 994 | 408 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1976 | 49.4 | 45.3 | 53.4 | 615 | 308 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1980 | 39.0 | 34.5 | 43.5 | 449 | 175 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1984 | 46.1 | 42.5 | 49.8 | 726 | 335 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1988 | 46.2 | 42.2 | 50.3 | 586 | 271 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1992 | 47.5 | 43.2 | 51.7 | 525 | 251 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 1996 | 45.2 | 39.7 | 50.6 | 394 | 182 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2000 | 40.9 | 35.9 | 46.0 | 438 | 183 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2004 | 44.3 | 38.8 | 49.9 | 365 | 150 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2008 | 42.8 | 37.7 | 47.8 | 487 | 183 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2012 | 39.5 | 36.4 | 42.5 | 1,650 | 632 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2016 | 45.0 | 41.6 | 48.3 | 1,210 | 509 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2020 | 48.6 | 45.9 | 51.3 | 2,494 | 857 |
| Highest third of income | Republican voters | 2024 | 39.9 | 36.4 | 43.4 | 1,554 | 493 |

Note: Cells need at least 100 voters in the party, a Kish effective sample of at least 100 and at least 30 respondents in the group and party; the Democratic degree cell in 1952 is dropped.

Note: The Hispanic respondents of the ANES are identified from 1966, so before then they are counted as white. The Protestant panel ends in 2020 because the 2024 religion codes of the cumulative file are unusable.

Note: Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and ignore clustering in the sample design.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, presidential years 1952 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/composition_trends.json

### Table 5. Four-year degree holders rose from 19.2% to 43.4% of Democratic voters and from 25.2% to 31.4% of Republican voters

Make-up of each party's two-party presidential voters, percent, in 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024 (the buttons switch the dimension); pooled elections; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Dimension | Party and period | Group | Share of the party's voters (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n party voters | n in group |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Education | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | No four-year degree | 80.8 | 79.1 | 82.5 | 2,173 | 1,754 |
| Education | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Four-year degree or more | 19.2 | 17.5 | 20.9 | 2,173 | 419 |
| Education | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | No four-year degree | 56.6 | 55.2 | 58.0 | 9,449 | 4,639 |
| Education | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Four-year degree or more | 43.4 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 9,449 | 4,810 |
| Education | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | No four-year degree | 74.8 | 73.1 | 76.5 | 2,563 | 1,919 |
| Education | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Four-year degree or more | 25.2 | 23.5 | 26.9 | 2,563 | 644 |
| Education | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | No four-year degree | 68.6 | 67.2 | 70.1 | 7,156 | 4,340 |
| Education | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Four-year degree or more | 31.4 | 29.9 | 32.8 | 7,156 | 2,816 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Lowest third | 33.5 | 31.4 | 35.6 | 2,011 | 664 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Middle third | 35.7 | 33.5 | 37.8 | 2,011 | 716 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Highest third | 30.9 | 28.8 | 32.9 | 2,011 | 631 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Lowest third | 24.9 | 23.6 | 26.2 | 9,236 | 2,855 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Middle third | 32.5 | 31.2 | 33.9 | 9,236 | 3,111 |
| Income | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Highest third | 42.6 | 41.1 | 44.0 | 9,236 | 3,270 |
| Income | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Lowest third | 20.3 | 18.6 | 21.9 | 2,376 | 474 |
| Income | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Middle third | 34.6 | 32.7 | 36.6 | 2,376 | 813 |
| Income | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Highest third | 45.1 | 43.0 | 47.1 | 2,376 | 1,089 |
| Income | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Lowest third | 21.1 | 19.8 | 22.4 | 6,908 | 1,911 |
| Income | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Middle third | 35.6 | 34.1 | 37.2 | 6,908 | 2,506 |
| Income | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Highest third | 43.3 | 41.7 | 44.8 | 6,908 | 2,491 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | White non-Hispanic | 72.7 | 70.8 | 74.6 | 2,179 | 1,594 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Black non-Hispanic | 20.0 | 18.3 | 21.7 | 2,179 | 425 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Hispanic or another race | 7.3 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2,179 | 160 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | White non-Hispanic | 58.0 | 56.6 | 59.4 | 9,493 | 5,863 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Black non-Hispanic | 19.9 | 18.7 | 21.0 | 9,493 | 1,778 |
| Race and ethnicity | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Hispanic or another race | 22.1 | 20.9 | 23.3 | 9,493 | 1,852 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | White non-Hispanic | 94.8 | 93.9 | 95.7 | 2,570 | 2,436 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Black non-Hispanic | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2,570 | 33 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Hispanic or another race | 3.9 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2,570 | 101 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | White non-Hispanic | 85.9 | 84.8 | 87.0 | 7,190 | 6,234 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Black non-Hispanic | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 7,190 | 82 |
| Race and ethnicity | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Hispanic or another race | 12.5 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 7,190 | 874 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Protestant | 59.5 | 57.4 | 61.6 | 2,186 | 1,293 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Catholic | 28.0 | 26.0 | 29.9 | 2,186 | 619 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Jewish, another religion or none | 12.6 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 2,186 | 274 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2020 | Protestant | 36.0 | 34.5 | 37.6 | 7,349 | 2,676 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2020 | Catholic | 21.8 | 20.4 | 23.1 | 7,349 | 1,571 |
| Religion | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2020 | Jewish, another religion or none | 42.2 | 40.6 | 43.8 | 7,349 | 3,102 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Protestant | 68.8 | 67.0 | 70.7 | 2,569 | 1,773 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Catholic | 23.1 | 21.5 | 24.8 | 2,569 | 595 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Jewish, another religion or none | 8.0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 2,569 | 201 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 2012 to 2020 | Protestant | 52.3 | 50.5 | 54.0 | 5,497 | 2,881 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 2012 to 2020 | Catholic | 22.5 | 21.0 | 24.0 | 5,497 | 1,258 |
| Religion | Republican voters, 2012 to 2020 | Jewish, another religion or none | 25.2 | 23.7 | 26.7 | 5,497 | 1,358 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 18 to 29 | 19.2 | 17.6 | 20.9 | 2,182 | 409 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 30 to 44 | 30.6 | 28.6 | 32.6 | 2,182 | 675 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 45 to 64 | 31.2 | 29.2 | 33.1 | 2,182 | 687 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 65 and over | 19.0 | 17.3 | 20.7 | 2,182 | 411 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 18 to 29 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 19.6 | 9,304 | 1,125 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 30 to 44 | 24.6 | 23.4 | 25.9 | 9,304 | 2,255 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 45 to 64 | 34.6 | 33.2 | 35.9 | 9,304 | 3,301 |
| Age | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 65 and over | 22.3 | 21.1 | 23.5 | 9,304 | 2,623 |
| Age | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 18 to 29 | 18.9 | 17.4 | 20.5 | 2,564 | 472 |
| Age | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 30 to 44 | 33.0 | 31.2 | 34.9 | 2,564 | 851 |
| Age | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 45 to 64 | 29.6 | 27.8 | 31.4 | 2,564 | 765 |
| Age | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 65 and over | 18.5 | 16.9 | 20.0 | 2,564 | 476 |
| Age | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 18 to 29 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 14.2 | 6,976 | 548 |
| Age | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 30 to 44 | 21.5 | 20.2 | 22.8 | 6,976 | 1,431 |
| Age | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 45 to 64 | 40.0 | 38.5 | 41.6 | 6,976 | 2,685 |
| Age | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 65 and over | 25.4 | 24.0 | 26.8 | 6,976 | 2,312 |
| Gender | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Women | 58.6 | 56.5 | 60.7 | 2,191 | 1,286 |
| Gender | Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | Men | 41.4 | 39.3 | 43.5 | 2,191 | 905 |
| Gender | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Women | 55.5 | 54.0 | 56.9 | 9,495 | 5,391 |
| Gender | Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | Men | 44.5 | 43.1 | 46.0 | 9,495 | 4,104 |
| Gender | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Women | 53.2 | 51.2 | 55.2 | 2,579 | 1,373 |
| Gender | Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | Men | 46.8 | 44.8 | 48.8 | 2,579 | 1,206 |
| Gender | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Women | 49.6 | 48.0 | 51.1 | 7,205 | 3,564 |
| Gender | Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | Men | 50.4 | 48.9 | 52.0 | 7,205 | 3,641 |

Views: Education (dimension = Education); Income (dimension = Income); Race and ethnicity (dimension = Race and ethnicity); Religion (dimension = Religion); Age (dimension = Age); Gender (dimension = Gender).

Note: Each period pools four elections, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 against 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, and every election has the same total weight. The religion view ends in 2020 because the 2024 religion codes of the cumulative file are unusable.

Note: Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and ignore clustering in the sample design.

Note: Stacked bars carry no whiskers; the interval and the number of voters in the party's denominator are in the tooltip and the table.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/composition_stacks.json

### Table 6. The Democratic share rose more among four-year degree holders than in any other group

Democratic share of each group's two-party presidential voters, percent, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; pooled elections; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Dimension | Group | Earlier period (%) | 95% CI low earlier | 95% CI high earlier | n earlier | Later period (%) | 95% CI low later | 95% CI high later | n later | Change (points) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Education | No four-year degree | 47.8 | 46.1 | 49.4 | 3,673 | 49.3 | 47.9 | 50.8 | 8,979 | +1.5 |
| Education | Four-year degree or more | 39.2 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 1,063 | 62.0 | 60.6 | 63.5 | 7,626 | +22.8 |
| Income (relative thirds) | Lowest third | 58.3 | 55.3 | 61.2 | 1,138 | 58.5 | 56.4 | 60.6 | 4,766 | +0.2 |
| Income (relative thirds) | Middle third | 46.5 | 44.0 | 49.1 | 1,529 | 52.2 | 50.3 | 54.0 | 5,617 | +5.6 |
| Income (relative thirds) | Highest third | 36.7 | 34.3 | 39.0 | 1,720 | 54.0 | 52.3 | 55.7 | 5,761 | +17.3 |
| Race and ethnicity | White non-Hispanic | 39.4 | 37.8 | 40.9 | 4,030 | 44.4 | 43.2 | 45.6 | 12,097 | +5.0 |
| Race and ethnicity | Black non-Hispanic | 92.8 | 90.4 | 95.2 | 458 | 93.7 | 92.0 | 95.4 | 1,860 | +0.9 |
| Race and ethnicity | Hispanic | 61.7 | 55.0 | 68.5 | 204 | 72.2 | 68.9 | 75.4 | 1,616 | +10.4 |
| Religion (later period 2012 to 2020) | Protestant | 42.4 | 40.6 | 44.2 | 3,066 | 44.7 | 42.9 | 46.5 | 5,557 | +2.4 |
| Religion (later period 2012 to 2020) | Catholic | 50.7 | 47.8 | 53.6 | 1,214 | 53.2 | 50.7 | 55.7 | 2,829 | +2.5 |
| Religion (later period 2012 to 2020) | Jewish, another religion or none | 57.1 | 52.5 | 61.6 | 475 | 66.3 | 64.3 | 68.2 | 4,460 | +9.2 |
| Age | 18 to 29 | 46.4 | 43.0 | 49.7 | 881 | 62.7 | 59.5 | 65.8 | 1,673 | +16.3 |
| Age | 30 to 44 | 44.1 | 41.5 | 46.6 | 1,526 | 57.8 | 55.6 | 59.9 | 3,686 | +13.7 |
| Age | 45 to 64 | 47.3 | 44.6 | 49.9 | 1,452 | 50.7 | 49.0 | 52.4 | 5,986 | +3.4 |
| Age | 65 and over | 46.7 | 43.3 | 50.0 | 887 | 51.1 | 49.2 | 53.1 | 4,935 | +4.5 |
| Gender | Women | 48.4 | 46.4 | 50.3 | 2,659 | 56.9 | 55.5 | 58.4 | 8,955 | +8.6 |
| Gender | Men | 42.9 | 40.7 | 45.0 | 2,111 | 51.0 | 49.5 | 52.6 | 7,745 | +8.2 |

Note: Education is split into degree and no degree only: the cumulative file defines its lower education groups differently after 2016. The other-races group has too few respondents in the earlier period to publish (fewer than 100) and has no row. Hispanic respondents are identified in the ANES from 1966.

Note: The ANES late-period elections lean Democratic relative to the certified counts (see the last section), so the later dots are higher than a count-based benchmark would give. Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and ignore clustering in the sample design.

Note: Each period pools four elections, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 against 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, and every election has the same total weight. The religion rows compare 1976 to 1988 with 2012 to 2020.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/group_vote_shares.json

### Table 7. Among Democratic voters the degree-holding share rose through group size (+15.5 points) and relative lean (+8.8 points)

Change in a group's share of a party's two-party presidential voters from 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024, split into group size and relative lean, percent and percentage points; ANES; the buttons switch group and party

| Group | Party's voters | Step | Value | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Degree holders | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 19.2 | 17.5 | 20.9 | 2,173 |
| Degree holders | Democratic voters | Group size | 15.5 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 21,554 |
| Degree holders | Democratic voters | Relative lean | 8.8 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 21,554 |
| Degree holders | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 43.4 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 9,449 |
| Degree holders | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 25.2 | 23.5 | 26.9 | 2,563 |
| Degree holders | Republican voters | Group size | 15.1 | 13.6 | 16.7 | 21,554 |
| Degree holders | Republican voters | Relative lean | −8.9 | −10.6 | −7.4 | 21,554 |
| Degree holders | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 31.4 | 29.9 | 32.8 | 7,156 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 72.7 | 70.8 | 74.6 | 2,179 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Democratic voters | Group size | −11.6 | −12.8 | −10.4 | 21,554 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Democratic voters | Relative lean | −3.1 | −4.6 | −1.5 | 21,554 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 58.0 | 56.6 | 59.4 | 9,493 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 94.8 | 93.9 | 95.7 | 2,570 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Republican voters | Group size | −16.2 | −17.8 | −14.5 | 21,554 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Republican voters | Relative lean | 7.3 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 21,554 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 85.9 | 84.8 | 87.0 | 7,190 |
| Highest income third | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988 | 30.9 | 28.8 | 32.9 | 2,011 |
| Highest income third | Democratic voters | Group size | 3.9 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 21,554 |
| Highest income third | Democratic voters | Relative lean | 7.8 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 21,554 |
| Highest income third | Democratic voters | Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024 | 42.6 | 41.1 | 44.0 | 9,236 |
| Highest income third | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988 | 45.1 | 43.0 | 47.1 | 2,376 |
| Highest income third | Republican voters | Group size | 4.7 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 21,554 |
| Highest income third | Republican voters | Relative lean | −6.5 | −8.2 | −4.8 | 21,554 |
| Highest income third | Republican voters | Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024 | 43.3 | 41.7 | 44.8 | 6,908 |

Views: Degree holders, Democratic voters (party = Democratic voters, topic = Degree holders); Degree holders, Republican voters (party = Republican voters, topic = Degree holders); White voters, Democratic voters (party = Democratic voters, topic = White non-Hispanic voters); White voters, Republican voters (party = Republican voters, topic = White non-Hispanic voters); Highest income third, Democratic voters (party = Democratic voters, topic = Highest income third); Highest income third, Republican voters (party = Republican voters, topic = Highest income third).

Note: The start and end bars carry Kish intervals. The two steps carry percentile intervals from a bootstrap that resamples respondents within each election (400 replicates, seed 12345).

Note: The split is symmetric: the change in group size times the average relative lean, plus the change in relative lean times the average group size. Relative lean is the group's Democratic (or Republican) share divided by the party's share of all voters.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/size_lean_split.json

### Table 8. The mix of voters accounts for +2.9 points of the change in the Democratic share and change within groups of the same sex, race and age for +5.3 points

Change in the Democratic share of two-party presidential voters from 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024, split into the mix of voters across sex, race and age cells and change within cells, percent and percentage points; ANES; the buttons switch the voters

| Voters | Step | Value | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| All two-party voters | Democratic share, 1976 to 1988 | 45.9 | 44.5 | 47.4 | 4,770 |
| All two-party voters | Change in the mix of voters | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 21,554 |
| All two-party voters | Change within groups of the same sex, race and age | 5.3 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 21,554 |
| All two-party voters | Democratic share, 2012 to 2024 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 55.2 | 16,784 |
| Voters with a four-year degree | Democratic share, 1976 to 1988 | 39.2 | 36.2 | 42.2 | 1,063 |
| Voters with a four-year degree | Change in the mix of voters | 1.1 | −0.1 | 2.9 | 8,689 |
| Voters with a four-year degree | Change within groups of the same sex, race and age | 21.7 | 18.0 | 24.8 | 8,689 |
| Voters with a four-year degree | Democratic share, 2012 to 2024 | 62.0 | 60.6 | 63.5 | 7,626 |
| Voters without a four-year degree | Democratic share, 1976 to 1988 | 47.8 | 46.1 | 49.4 | 3,673 |
| Voters without a four-year degree | Change in the mix of voters | 4.7 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 12,652 |
| Voters without a four-year degree | Change within groups of the same sex, race and age | −3.2 | −5.4 | −1.5 | 12,652 |
| Voters without a four-year degree | Democratic share, 2012 to 2024 | 49.3 | 47.9 | 50.8 | 8,979 |

Views: All voters (topic = All two-party voters); Four-year degree (topic = Voters with a four-year degree); No four-year degree (topic = Voters without a four-year degree).

Note: The first and last bars carry Kish intervals and the two steps carry bootstrap intervals. The cells combine sex, race and ethnicity (white non-Hispanic, Black non-Hispanic, Hispanic or another race) and four age bands; a respondent with a missing value forms a cell of its own. A cell with no respondents in one period takes the other period's Democratic share, so it adds nothing to the within-cell term.

Note: Intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples respondents within each election (400 replicates, seed 12345). The split is symmetric between the mix and the within-cell change.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/vote_split.json

### Table 9. The ANES shows the degree-holding share of Republican voters falling after 2008, the CES shows it rising, and the ANES web samples show no change

Share of voters with a four-year degree, percent, by presidential election: all voters (CPS, ANES, CES), Democratic voters and Republican voters (ANES, ANES by mode, CES); the buttons show the white and Black shares of voters; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size

| Measure | Voters | Survey | Election | Share (%) | 95% CI low | 95% CI high | n |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 1996 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 29.8 | 50,025 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2000 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 50,010 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2004 | 32.4 | 32.0 | 32.9 | 63,052 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2008 | 34.1 | 33.7 | 34.6 | 59,975 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2012 | 36.6 | 36.2 | 37.0 | 59,597 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2016 | 39.6 | 39.2 | 40.1 | 58,533 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2020 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41.9 | 55,170 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2024 | 44.9 | 44.4 | 45.4 | 48,387 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 1996 | 28.7 | 25.6 | 31.8 | 1,032 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2000 | 30.4 | 27.4 | 33.4 | 1,118 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2004 | 31.3 | 27.8 | 34.8 | 811 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2008 | 33.3 | 30.4 | 36.3 | 1,533 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2012 | 33.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 4,144 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2016 | 37.7 | 35.4 | 39.9 | 2,571 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2020 | 40.4 | 38.7 | 42.2 | 5,987 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES | 2024 | 39.9 | 37.7 | 42.1 | 3,903 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, face to face | 2008 | 33.3 | 30.3 | 36.2 | 1,533 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, face to face | 2012 | 35.9 | 32.3 | 39.5 | 1,327 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, face to face | 2016 | 39.9 | 35.5 | 44.3 | 745 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, face to face | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, face to face | 2024 | 41.1 | 36.0 | 46.2 | 688 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, web | 2012 | 32.4 | 30.1 | 34.7 | 2,817 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, web | 2016 | 37.1 | 34.5 | 39.8 | 1,846 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, web | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | All voters | ANES, web | 2024 | 42.5 | 39.0 | 46.0 | 1,357 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CES | 2008 | 29.8 | 29.1 | 30.5 | 23,585 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CES | 2012 | 30.7 | 30.0 | 31.4 | 37,789 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CES | 2016 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 40,891 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CES | 2020 | 38.8 | 38.2 | 39.5 | 43,872 |
| Four-year degree | All voters | CES | 2024 | 41.8 | 41.1 | 42.5 | 42,008 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 1996 | 24.2 | 20.4 | 28.1 | 599 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2000 | 29.3 | 25.2 | 33.4 | 590 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2004 | 31.9 | 26.8 | 36.9 | 399 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2008 | 30.9 | 27.2 | 34.5 | 1,020 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2012 | 33.3 | 30.7 | 35.9 | 2,469 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2016 | 43.0 | 39.8 | 46.3 | 1,341 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2020 | 47.1 | 44.7 | 49.5 | 3,461 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES | 2024 | 50.0 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 2,178 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, face to face | 2008 | 30.8 | 27.2 | 34.5 | 1,020 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, face to face | 2012 | 34.1 | 29.6 | 38.6 | 915 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, face to face | 2016 | 47.1 | 40.9 | 53.4 | 385 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, face to face | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, face to face | 2024 | 54.7 | 47.8 | 61.7 | 387 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, web | 2012 | 32.9 | 29.7 | 36.1 | 1,554 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, web | 2016 | 41.7 | 38.0 | 45.4 | 970 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, web | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | ANES, web | 2024 | 51.0 | 46.2 | 55.8 | 786 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | CES | 2008 | 31.2 | 30.2 | 32.3 | 11,519 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | CES | 2012 | 32.9 | 31.9 | 34.0 | 19,048 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | CES | 2016 | 36.1 | 35.2 | 37.0 | 22,136 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | CES | 2020 | 45.8 | 44.9 | 46.6 | 26,179 |
| Four-year degree | Democratic voters | CES | 2024 | 47.9 | 46.9 | 49.0 | 23,517 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 1996 | 34.9 | 29.9 | 40.0 | 433 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2000 | 31.6 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 528 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2004 | 30.7 | 25.8 | 35.5 | 412 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2008 | 36.4 | 31.6 | 41.1 | 513 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2012 | 34.0 | 31.1 | 36.9 | 1,675 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2016 | 31.7 | 28.6 | 34.8 | 1,230 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2020 | 32.0 | 29.5 | 34.5 | 2,526 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES | 2024 | 27.8 | 24.8 | 30.9 | 1,725 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, face to face | 2008 | 36.2 | 31.4 | 41.0 | 513 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, face to face | 2012 | 37.9 | 32.2 | 43.6 | 412 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, face to face | 2016 | 31.8 | 25.8 | 37.8 | 360 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, face to face | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, face to face | 2024 | 25.1 | 18.2 | 31.9 | 301 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, web | 2012 | 31.9 | 28.6 | 35.2 | 1,263 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, web | 2016 | 32.0 | 28.4 | 35.6 | 876 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, web | 2020 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | ANES, web | 2024 | 30.8 | 25.9 | 35.7 | 571 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | CES | 2008 | 28.2 | 27.2 | 29.1 | 12,066 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | CES | 2012 | 28.1 | 27.2 | 29.1 | 18,741 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | CES | 2016 | 25.6 | 24.8 | 26.4 | 18,755 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | CES | 2020 | 31.2 | 30.4 | 32.0 | 17,693 |
| Four-year degree | Republican voters | CES | 2024 | 35.9 | 34.9 | 37.0 | 18,491 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 1996 | 82.5 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 50,025 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2000 | 80.6 | 80.2 | 81.0 | 50,010 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2004 | 79.2 | 78.8 | 79.6 | 63,052 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2008 | 76.3 | 75.9 | 76.7 | 59,975 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2012 | 73.7 | 73.3 | 74.1 | 59,597 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2016 | 73.3 | 72.9 | 73.7 | 58,533 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2020 | 71.0 | 70.6 | 71.5 | 55,170 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2024 | 70.6 | 70.1 | 71.1 | 48,387 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 1996 | 78.9 | 76.1 | 81.6 | 1,031 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2000 | 77.8 | 75.1 | 80.6 | 1,113 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2004 | 74.9 | 71.6 | 78.1 | 800 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2008 | 74.1 | 71.4 | 76.9 | 1,530 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2012 | 72.7 | 70.9 | 74.5 | 4,181 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2016 | 72.6 | 70.6 | 74.7 | 2,575 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2020 | 70.4 | 68.8 | 72.0 | 6,030 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | ANES | 2024 | 67.4 | 65.2 | 69.5 | 3,897 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CES | 2008 | 76.5 | 75.8 | 77.2 | 23,585 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CES | 2012 | 78.6 | 78.0 | 79.3 | 37,789 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CES | 2016 | 76.7 | 76.2 | 77.3 | 40,891 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CES | 2020 | 73.1 | 72.6 | 73.7 | 43,872 |
| White non-Hispanic voters | All voters | CES | 2024 | 72.3 | 71.6 | 73.0 | 42,008 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 1996 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 50,025 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2000 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 50,010 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2004 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 63,052 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2008 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 59,975 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2012 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 59,597 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2016 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 58,533 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2020 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 55,170 |
| Black voters | All voters | CPS voting supplement | 2024 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 48,387 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 1996 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 1,031 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2000 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 13.3 | 1,113 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2004 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 800 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2008 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 14.1 | 1,530 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2012 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 4,181 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2016 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 2,575 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2020 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 6,030 |
| Black voters | All voters | ANES | 2024 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 3,897 |
| Black voters | All voters | CES | 2008 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 23,585 |
| Black voters | All voters | CES | 2012 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 37,789 |
| Black voters | All voters | CES | 2016 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 40,891 |
| Black voters | All voters | CES | 2020 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 43,872 |
| Black voters | All voters | CES | 2024 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 42,008 |

Views: Four-year degree (topic = Four-year degree); White non-Hispanic voters (topic = White non-Hispanic voters); Black voters (topic = Black voters).

Note: The ANES 2012, 2016 and 2024 samples mix interview modes and the 2020 study has no mode weights, so the mode lines have no 2020 point; the 2008 study was face to face only. The all-mode ANES line includes panel and paper respondents in 2024.

Note: The CES is an opt-in panel and its intervals do not cover how respondents were recruited; the CPS intervals ignore the survey design. Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and ignore clustering in the sample design.

Source: CPS November voting supplement 1996 to 2024 (weighted, VOSUPPWT); ANES Cumulative Data File 1996 to 2024 (weighted; mode series use weight_ftf and weight_web); CES cumulative file 2008 to 2024 (weighted, weight_cumulative)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/survey_check.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (177), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| a18_d0 | 19.2% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 18 to 29 | Democratic two-party presidential voters, aged 18 to 29 | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 17.6% to 20.9% | 2,182 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a18_d1 | 18.5% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 18 to 29 | Democratic two-party presidential voters, aged 18 to 29 | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 17.4% to 19.6% | 9,304 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a18_r0 | 18.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 18 to 29 | Republican two-party presidential voters, aged 18 to 29 | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 17.4% to 20.5% | 2,564 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a18_r1 | 13.1% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 18 to 29 | Republican two-party presidential voters, aged 18 to 29 | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 12.0% to 14.2% | 6,976 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a65_d0 | 19.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 65 and over | Democratic two-party presidential voters, aged 65 and over | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 17.3% to 20.7% | 2,182 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a65_d1 | 22.3% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 65 and over | Democratic two-party presidential voters, aged 65 and over | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 21.1% to 23.5% | 9,304 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a65_r0 | 18.5% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 65 and over | Republican two-party presidential voters, aged 65 and over | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 16.9% to 20.0% | 2,564 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| a65_r1 | 25.4% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are aged 65 and over | Republican two-party presidential voters, aged 65 and over | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 24.0% to 26.8% | 6,976 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| adj_d_24 | 55.1% | percent of Democratic voters | degree share of Democratic voters when voters take the CPS degree share and keep their ANES within-education Democratic shares; seeded bootstrap of ANES respondents | Democratic two-party presidential voters, ANES with the CPS education mix | 2024 | 95% CI 53.4% to 57.2% | 3,903 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) (ANES); CPS share treated as known | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| adj_r_24 | 32.1% | percent of Republican voters | degree share of Republican voters when voters take the CPS degree share and keep their ANES within-education Democratic shares; seeded bootstrap of ANES respondents | Republican two-party presidential voters, ANES with the CPS education mix | 2024 | 95% CI 29.8% to 34.1% | 3,903 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) (ANES); CPS share treated as known | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| age_hi | 29 | years of age | highest age in the youngest band | definition of an age band | all years |   |   | none (definition) | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| age_lo | 18 | years of age | lowest age in the youngest band | definition of an age band | all years |   |   | none (definition) | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| age_old | 65 | years of age | lowest age in the oldest band | definition of an age band | all years |   |   | none (definition) | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| all_d0 | 45.9% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted Democratic share of all two-party voters | two-party presidential voters | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 44.5% to 47.4% | 4,770 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| all_d1 | 54.1% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted Democratic share of all two-party voters | two-party presidential voters | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 53.1% to 55.2% | 16,784 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| all_d_chg | 8.2 | percentage points | later minus earlier Democratic share of all two-party voters; independent periods, standard errors combined | two-party presidential voters | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.4 to 10.0 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| blk_d0 | 20.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Black non-Hispanic | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Black non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 18.3% to 21.7% | 2,179 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| blk_d1 | 19.9% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Black non-Hispanic | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Black non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 18.7% to 21.0% | 9,493 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ces_deg_d08 | 31.2% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2008 | 95% CI 30.2% to 32.3% | 11,519 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_deg_d24 | 47.9% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 46.9% to 49.0% | 23,517 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_lean_d | +3.5 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the degree-holding share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.5 to 4.5 | 65,593 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_lean_r | −3.0 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the degree-holding share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI −4.0 to −1.9 | 65,593 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_size_d | +13.1 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the degree-holding share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 12.0 to 14.1 | 65,593 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_size_r | +10.8 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the degree-holding share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 9.8 to 11.7 | 65,593 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_anes_24 | 39.9% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 37.7% to 42.1% | 3,903 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_b_anes | 11.2% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | Black non-Hispanic voters among two-party voters | 2024 | 95% CI 9.8% to 12.7% | 3,897 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_b_ces | 9.3% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | Black voters among two-party voters | 2024 | 95% CI 8.9% to 9.7% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_b_cps | 11.5% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | Black non-Hispanic voters among all voters | 2024 | 95% CI 11.1% to 11.8% | 48,387 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| chk_ces_24 | 41.8% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 41.1% to 42.5% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_cps_24 | 44.9% | percent of voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | voters, citizens aged 18 or older, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 44.4% to 45.4% | 48,387 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| chk_dv_anes | 68.2% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | ANES two-party voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 65.4% to 71.1% | 2,007 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_dv_ces | 56.1% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | CES two-party voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 55.1% to 57.2% | 16,994 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_nv_anes | 45.3% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | ANES two-party voters without a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 42.2% to 48.5% | 1,896 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_nv_ces | 43.8% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | CES two-party voters without a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 42.8% to 44.9% | 25,014 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_r_anes_08 | 36.4% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2008 | 95% CI 31.6% to 41.1% | 513 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_r_anes_24 | 27.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 24.8% to 30.9% | 1,725 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_r_anes_chg | −8.5 | percentage points | 2024 minus 2008 share; independent elections, standard errors combined | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI −14.2 to −2.8 | 2,238 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_r_ces_08 | 28.2% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2008 | 95% CI 27.2% to 29.1% | 12,066 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_r_ces_24 | 35.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 34.9% to 37.0% | 18,491 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_r_ces_chg | +7.8 | percentage points | 2024 minus 2008 share; independent elections, standard errors combined | Republican two-party presidential voters, with a four-year degree | 2008 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.4 to 9.2 | 30,557 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_w_anes | 67.4% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | white non-Hispanic voters among two-party voters | 2024 | 95% CI 65.2% to 69.5% | 3,897 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| chk_w_ces | 72.3% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | white voters among two-party voters | 2024 | 95% CI 71.6% to 73.0% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| chk_w_cps | 70.6% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters in the group | white non-Hispanic voters among all voters | 2024 | 95% CI 70.1% to 71.1% | 48,387 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_cf_24 | 46.1% | percent of voters | degree-holding share of 2024 voters if degree holders and other adults had kept their 1996 turnout rates; seeded bootstrap within year | voters among citizens aged 18 or older, 2024 with 1996 turnout rates by education | 2024 | 95% CI 45.5% to 46.7% | 156,680 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_df_deg_24 | 7.8 | percentage points | voters' degree-holding share minus eligible adults' share; Taylor linearization | citizens aged 18 or older with a turnout answer | 2024 | 95% CI 7.5 to 8.1 | 72,590 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_el_deg_24 | 37.1% | percent of eligible adults | weighted share of eligible adults with a four-year degree | citizens aged 18 or older with a turnout answer | 2024 | 95% CI 36.7% to 37.5% | 72,590 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_el_deg_96 | 22.3% | percent of eligible adults | weighted share of eligible adults with a four-year degree | citizens aged 18 or older with a turnout answer | 1996 | 95% CI 22.0% to 22.6% | 84,090 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_size_term | +16.7 | percentage points | counterfactual share minus the 1996 share: the part of the rise from the growth of the group among eligible adults; seeded bootstrap within year | voters among citizens aged 18 or older | 1996 to 2024 | 95% CI 16.1 to 17.3 | 156,680 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_turn_term | −1.2 | percentage points | actual 2024 share minus the counterfactual share: the part of the rise from the change in relative turnout; seeded bootstrap within year | voters among citizens aged 18 or older | 1996 to 2024 | 95% CI −1.6 to −0.8 | 156,680 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_vo_chg | 15.5 | percentage points | 2024 minus 1996 degree-holding share of voters; seeded bootstrap within year | voters among citizens aged 18 or older | 1996 to 2024 | 95% CI 14.8 to 16.2 | 156,680 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_vo_deg_24 | 44.9% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters with a four-year degree | voters among citizens aged 18 or older | 2024 | 95% CI 44.4% to 45.4% | 48,387 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_vo_deg_96 | 29.4% | percent of voters | weighted share of voters with a four-year degree | voters among citizens aged 18 or older | 1996 | 95% CI 29.0% to 29.8% | 50,025 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_w_0 | 53.1% | percent of voters | mean over elections of the weighted share of voters who are women | voters among adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 | 95% CI 52.9% to 53.3% | 254,747 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cps_w_1 | 53.3% | percent of voters | mean over elections of the weighted share of voters who are women | voters among adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 | 95% CI 53.1% to 53.6% | 221,687 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cpsw_el_chg | 17.0 | percentage points | later minus earlier degree-holding share of adults; mean of the election estimates | adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 16.8 to 17.2 | 754,088 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cpsw_old_0 | 15.9% | percent of adults | mean over elections of the weighted share of adults aged 65 or older | adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 | 95% CI 15.7% to 16.0% | 411,495 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cpsw_old_1 | 21.9% | percent of adults | mean over elections of the weighted share of adults aged 65 or older | adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 | 95% CI 21.8% to 22.1% | 342,593 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| cpsw_vo_chg | 18.9 | percentage points | later minus earlier degree-holding share of voters; mean of the election estimates | voters among adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer (all residents before 1994, citizens after) | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 18.6 to 19.2 | 476,434 | VOSUPPWT | CPS Voting and Registration Supplement |   |
| deg_all0 | 45.9% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted Democratic share of two-party voters with a known degree status | two-party presidential voters | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 44.4% to 47.3% | 4,736 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_all1 | 54.1% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted Democratic share of two-party voters with a known degree status | two-party presidential voters | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 53.1% to 55.2% | 16,605 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_d0 | 19.2% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 17.5% to 20.9% | 2,173 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_d1 | 43.4% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Democratic two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 42.0% to 44.8% | 9,449 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_d24_anes | 50.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Democratic voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 47.0% to 53.0% | 2,178 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_dchg | 24.2 | percentage points | later minus earlier share of Democratic voters; independent periods, standard errors combined | Democratic two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 22.0 to 26.4 |   | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_lean_d | +8.8 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 7.1 to 10.6 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_lean_r | −8.9 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −10.6 to −7.4 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_r0 | 25.2% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 23.5% to 26.9% | 2,563 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_r1 | 31.4% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | Republican two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 29.9% to 32.8% | 7,156 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_r24_anes | 27.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Republican voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 24.8% to 30.9% | 1,725 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_rchg | 6.2 | percentage points | later minus earlier share of Republican voters; independent periods, standard errors combined | Republican two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 4.0 to 8.5 |   | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_s0 | 22.4% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 21.2% to 23.6% | 4,736 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_s1 | 37.9% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are holders of a four-year degree | two-party presidential voters, holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 36.9% to 38.9% | 16,605 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_size_d | +15.5 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 14.0 to 17.1 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_size_r | +15.1 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, degree holders | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 13.6 to 16.7 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_v0 | 39.2% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are holders of a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 36.2% to 42.2% | 1,063 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| deg_v1 | 62.0% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are holders of a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 60.6% to 63.5% | 7,626 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| den_black_c | 15.6% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of Democratic two-party voters who are in the group | black, among Democratic two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 14.8% to 16.3% | 23,517 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| den_black_s | 9.3% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are in the group | black, among two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 8.9% to 9.7% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| den_black_v | 81.9% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | black two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 79.8% to 84.0% | 3,753 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| den_white_c | 64.3% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of Democratic two-party voters who are in the group | white, among Democratic two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 63.3% to 65.3% | 23,517 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| den_white_s | 72.3% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are in the group | white, among two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 71.6% to 73.0% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| den_white_v | 43.5% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | white two-party presidential voters | 2024 | 95% CI 42.7% to 44.4% | 31,857 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| gv_age_0 | 46.4% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group 18 to 29 | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 43.0% to 49.7% | 881 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_age_1 | 62.7% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group 18 to 29 | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 59.5% to 65.8% | 1,673 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_blk_0 | 92.8% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Black non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 90.4% to 95.2% | 458 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_blk_1 | 93.7% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Black non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 92.0% to 95.4% | 1,860 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_deg_0 | 39.2% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Four-year degree or more | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 36.2% to 42.2% | 1,063 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_deg_1 | 62.0% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Four-year degree or more | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 60.6% to 63.5% | 7,626 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_deg_chg | 22.8 | percentage points | later minus earlier Democratic share of degree holders; independent periods, standard errors combined | two-party presidential voters with a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 19.5 to 26.1 | 8,689 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_inc_0 | 36.7% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Highest third | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 34.3% to 39.0% | 1,720 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_inc_1 | 54.0% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Highest third | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 52.3% to 55.7% | 5,761 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_low_0 | 58.3% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Lowest third | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 55.3% to 61.2% | 1,138 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gv_low_1 | 58.5% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters in the group Lowest third | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 56.4% to 60.6% | 4,766 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_d0 | 30.9% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | Democratic two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 28.8% to 32.9% | 2,011 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_d1 | 42.6% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | Democratic two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 41.1% to 44.0% | 9,236 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_lean_d | +7.8 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, the highest income third | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.0 to 9.6 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_lean_r | −6.5 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, the highest income third | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −8.2 to −4.8 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_r0 | 45.1% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | Republican two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 43.0% to 47.1% | 2,376 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_r1 | 43.3% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | Republican two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 41.7% to 44.8% | 6,908 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_s0 | 38.6% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 37.1% to 40.0% | 4,387 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_s1 | 42.9% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are in the highest third of the income distribution | two-party presidential voters, in the highest third of the income distribution | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 41.8% to 43.9% | 16,144 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_size_d | +3.9 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, the highest income third | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.3 to 5.5 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| inc_size_r | +4.7 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, the highest income third | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.7 to 6.7 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_di_deg | 43.3% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 40.5% to 46.1% | 2,619 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_dv_deg | 50.0% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: Democratic voters | 2024 | 95% CI 47.0% to 53.0% | 2,178 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_ind_deg | 18.2% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: independents who lean toward neither party | 2024 | 95% CI 12.5% to 23.9% | 378 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_nv_deg | 15.7% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: nonvoters (self-reported) | 2024 | 95% CI 12.3% to 19.2% | 829 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_ri_deg | 27.2% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: Republican identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 24.7% to 29.8% | 2,436 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| lad_rv_deg | 27.8% | percent of the population in the row | weighted share with a four-year degree | ANES 2024 respondents: Republican voters | 2024 | 95% CI 24.8% to 30.9% | 1,725 | weight (VCF0009z) for all respondents and party identifiers; weight_postelection for voters and nonvoters | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_d_ftf | 54.7% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Democratic two-party voters interviewed face to face | 2024 | 95% CI 47.8% to 61.7% | 387 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_d_web | 51.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Democratic two-party voters interviewed on the web | 2024 | 95% CI 46.2% to 55.8% | 786 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rf_12 | 37.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Republican two-party voters interviewed face to face | 2012 | 95% CI 32.2% to 43.6% | 412 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rf_24 | 25.1% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Republican two-party voters interviewed face to face | 2024 | 95% CI 18.2% to 31.9% | 301 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rf_chg | −12.8 | percentage points | 2024 minus 2012 degree-holding share; independent elections, standard errors combined | Republican two-party voters interviewed face to face | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −21.8 to −3.9 | 713 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rw_12 | 31.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Republican two-party voters interviewed on the web | 2012 | 95% CI 28.6% to 35.2% | 1,263 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rw_24 | 30.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share with a four-year degree, mode-specific weight | Republican two-party voters interviewed on the web | 2024 | 95% CI 25.9% to 35.7% | 571 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rw_chg | −1.1 | percentage points | 2024 minus 2012 degree-holding share; independent elections, standard errors combined | Republican two-party voters interviewed on the web | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −7.0 to 4.8 | 1,834 | weight_ftf or weight_web (VCF0009 mode weights) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_anes_voters | 34,423 | respondents | count of respondents with a positive vote weight | ANES respondents who reported a Democratic or Republican presidential vote | 1952 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_anes_years | 19 | elections | count of elections | ANES presidential elections 1952 to 2024 | 1952 to 2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| n_ces_voters | 188,145 | respondents | count of respondents with a positive weight | CES respondents who reported a Democratic or Republican presidential vote | 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 |   |   | none (count) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| nat_anes_24 | 54.5% | percent of the two-party vote | weighted Democratic share of two-party voters | two-party presidential voters (ANES) | 2024 | 95% CI 52.3% to 56.7% | 3,933 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nat_cert_24 | 49.2% | percent of the two-party vote | certified Democratic share of the two-party vote | all votes cast for the two major-party candidates | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | State presidential returns |   |
| nat_cert_chg | 5.4 | percentage points | mean certified Democratic share of the two-party vote in 2012 to 2024 minus the mean in 1976 to 1988 | all votes cast for the two major-party candidates | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | State presidential returns |   |
| nat_ces_24 | 49.0% | percent of the two-party vote | weighted Democratic share of two-party voters | two-party presidential voters (CES) | 2024 | 95% CI 48.2% to 49.7% | 42,008 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| nat_lean_chg | 2.8 | percentage points | change between the two sets of elections in the mean ANES-minus-certified gap; election errors combined | ANES minus certified count, later mean minus earlier mean | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.0 to 4.6 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nat_lean_early | +0.2 | percentage points | mean over elections of the ANES Democratic share of the two-party vote minus the certified share; election errors combined | ANES minus certified count, mean over the elections | 1976 to 1988 | 95% CI −1.3 to 1.6 | 4,770 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nat_lean_late | +3.0 | percentage points | mean over elections of the ANES Democratic share of the two-party vote minus the certified share; election errors combined | ANES minus certified count, mean over the elections | 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 1.9 to 4.0 | 16,784 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nod_v0 | 47.8% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are without a four-year degree | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 46.1% to 49.4% | 3,673 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| nod_v1 | 49.3% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are without a four-year degree | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 47.9% to 50.8% | 8,979 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| none_d12 | 35.7% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters with no religion | Democratic two-party presidential voters with no religion | 2012 | 95% CI 34.7% to 36.8% | 19,015 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| none_d24 | 45.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters with no religion | Democratic two-party presidential voters with no religion | 2024 | 95% CI 43.9% to 46.0% | 23,506 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| none_r12 | 14.5% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters with no religion | Republican two-party presidential voters with no religion | 2012 | 95% CI 13.7% to 15.2% | 18,727 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| none_r24 | 17.7% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters with no religion | Republican two-party presidential voters with no religion | 2024 | 95% CI 16.8% to 18.5% | 18,485 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| oth_d0 | 7.3% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Hispanic or another race | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Hispanic or another race | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 6.2% to 8.4% | 2,179 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| oth_d1 | 22.1% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Hispanic or another race | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Hispanic or another race | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 20.9% to 23.3% | 9,493 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| oth_r0 | 3.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Hispanic or another race | Republican two-party presidential voters, Hispanic or another race | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 3.1% to 4.6% | 2,570 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| oth_r1 | 12.5% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Hispanic or another race | Republican two-party presidential voters, Hispanic or another race | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 11.5% to 13.5% | 7,190 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pro_d0 | 59.5% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Protestant | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Protestant | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 57.4% to 61.6% | 2,186 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pro_d1 | 36.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Protestant | Democratic two-party presidential voters, Protestant | 2012, 2016 and 2020 pooled | 95% CI 34.5% to 37.6% | 7,349 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pro_r0 | 68.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Protestant | Republican two-party presidential voters, Protestant | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 67.0% to 70.7% | 2,569 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| pro_r1 | 52.3% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are Protestant | Republican two-party presidential voters, Protestant | 2012, 2016 and 2020 pooled | 95% CI 50.5% to 54.0% | 5,497 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_deg_d24 | 50.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Democratic voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 47.0% to 53.0% | 2,178 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_deg_d76 | 13.8% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Democratic voters with a four-year degree | 1976 | 95% CI 11.1% to 16.4% | 669 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_deg_r24 | 27.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Republican voters with a four-year degree | 2024 | 95% CI 24.8% to 30.9% | 1,725 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_deg_r76 | 24.2% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Republican voters with a four-year degree | 1976 | 95% CI 20.9% to 27.6% | 650 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_inc_d24 | 49.7% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Democratic voters in the highest income third | 2024 | 95% CI 46.5% to 52.8% | 2,026 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_inc_d76 | 33.5% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Democratic voters in the highest income third | 1976 | 95% CI 29.8% to 37.3% | 626 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_inc_r24 | 39.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Republican voters in the highest income third | 2024 | 95% CI 36.4% to 43.4% | 1,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| tr_inc_r76 | 49.4% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters in the group | Republican voters in the highest income third | 1976 | 95% CI 45.3% to 53.4% | 615 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ts_none_d | 34.2% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters with no religion (ANES 2024 Time Series summary religion code 9) | Democratic two-party presidential voters who say they are not religious | 2024 | 95% CI 31.1% to 37.2% | 2,004 | w_post (V240107b) | ANES 2024 Time Series |   |
| vs_all_comp | +2.9 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change in the mix of voters across sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | all two-party voters | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 2.1 to 3.8 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| vs_all_within | +5.3 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change inside sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | all two-party voters | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 3.6 to 6.8 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| vs_deg_comp | +1.1 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change in the mix of voters across sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | two-party voters with a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.1 to 2.9 | 8,689 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| vs_deg_within | +21.7 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change inside sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | two-party voters with a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 18.0 to 24.8 | 8,689 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| vs_nod_comp | +4.7 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change in the mix of voters across sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | two-party voters without a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 3.5 to 5.9 | 12,652 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| vs_nod_within | −3.2 | percentage points | change in the Democratic share from the change inside sex, race and age cells; seeded bootstrap | two-party voters without a four-year degree | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −5.4 to −1.5 | 12,652 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_d0 | 72.7% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 70.8% to 74.6% | 2,179 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_d1 | 58.0% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 56.6% to 59.4% | 9,493 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_dchg | 14.7 | percentage points | earlier minus later share of Democratic voters; independent periods, standard errors combined | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 12.3 to 17.1 |   | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_lean_d | −3.1 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −4.6 to −1.5 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_lean_r | +7.3 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI 5.7 to 8.9 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_r0 | 94.8% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | Republican two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 93.9% to 95.7% | 2,570 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_r1 | 85.9% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | Republican two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 84.8% to 87.0% | 7,190 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_s0 | 84.7% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 83.6% to 85.7% | 4,749 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_s1 | 70.8% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are white non-Hispanic | two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 69.8% to 71.7% | 16,683 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_size_d | −11.6 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Democratic two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −12.8 to −10.4 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_size_r | −16.2 | percentage points | group-size or relative-lean term of the change in the group's share of the party's voters; seeded bootstrap within elections | Republican two-party presidential voters, white non-Hispanic | 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024 | 95% CI −17.8 to −14.5 | 21,554 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_v0 | 39.4% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are white non-Hispanic | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 37.8% to 40.9% | 4,030 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wh_v1 | 44.4% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are white non-Hispanic | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 43.2% to 45.6% | 12,097 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_d0 | 58.6% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are women | Democratic two-party presidential voters, women | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 56.5% to 60.7% | 2,191 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_d1 | 55.5% | percent of Democratic voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are women | Democratic two-party presidential voters, women | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 54.0% to 56.9% | 9,495 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_r0 | 53.2% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are women | Republican two-party presidential voters, women | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 51.2% to 55.2% | 2,579 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_r1 | 49.6% | percent of Republican voters | weighted share of the party's two-party voters who are women | Republican two-party presidential voters, women | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 48.0% to 51.1% | 7,205 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_s0 | 55.7% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are women | two-party presidential voters, women | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 54.2% to 57.1% | 4,770 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_s1 | 52.8% | percent of all two-party voters | weighted share of all two-party voters who are women | two-party presidential voters, women | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 51.7% to 53.8% | 16,700 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_v0 | 48.4% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are women | 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 pooled | 95% CI 46.4% to 50.3% | 2,659 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| wom_v1 | 56.9% | percent of the group's voters voting Democratic | weighted Democratic share of the group's two-party voters | two-party presidential voters who are women | 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 pooled | 95% CI 55.5% to 58.4% | 8,955 | weight_postelection where the file has one (1996 to 2008, 2016 to 2024), else weight (VCF0009z); pooled periods give each election the same total weight | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |

## Definitions

- Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.

## Methods

Sample: ANES Cumulative Data File respondents in the 19 presidential elections from 1952 to 2024 who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican candidate (34,423 respondents with a positive vote weight); CES cumulative file respondents in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 who reported such a vote (188,145); CPS November voting supplement respondents in the presidential-election years 1996 to 2024 who were citizens aged 18 or older with a positive supplement weight and a turnout answer (eligible adults); for the comparison of the two pooled windows, adults aged 18 or older with a turnout answer in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 (citizenship is recorded from 1994, so the earlier window counts all residents and the later one citizens). Third-party voters and nonvoters are outside the ANES and CES frame. A coalition is a party's two-party voters. Weights: ANES weight_postelection in the elections where the file has one (1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, 2020, 2024), otherwise weight (VCF0009z), the rule used by the gender-gap chapter; CES weight_cumulative; CPS VOSUPPWT. A pooled period (1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988; 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024) divides each election's weights by that election's total vote weight, so every election counts equally. Groups: four-year degree or more against less (ANES college_grad; CES education_4cat College or Post-grad; education below a degree is not split in the ANES because the cumulative file defines its lower groups differently after 2016); relative income thirds (the ANES percentile income groups regrouped into 0 to 33, 34 to 67 and 68 to 100); race and ethnicity from the ANES four-category variable (Hispanic respondents identified from 1966; the other-races group has too few respondents to publish in the earlier period) and the CES five-category variable; religion from the ANES cumulative four-category variable (Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, other or none; the 2024 values are unusable and are not used) and the CES five-category variable (2012 to 2024; the CES religion categories are not comparable between 2008 and 2012, when the Protestant share jumps and the other-religion share falls); age in four bands built from age in years; sex from the survey's two-category variable. Definitions: for a group g, c(g) is the group's share of a party's voters, d(g) the Democratic share of the group's voters, s(g) the group's share of all voters and D the Democratic share of all voters, so that c_D(g) = s(g) d(g) / D and c_R(g) = s(g) (1 - d(g)) / (1 - D). A change in c between two periods splits exactly into a group-size term, (s1 - s0) times the mean of the two relative leans, and a relative-lean term, (r1 - r0) times the mean of the two group shares, with r the relative lean. The vote decomposition splits the change in the Democratic share into a mix term, the sum over cells of sex, race and age (a missing value is its own category) of the change in the cell's weight share times the mean of the two Democratic shares, and a within-cell term, the sum of the change in the cell's Democratic share times the mean of the two weight shares; a cell empty in one period takes the other period's Democratic share. Intervals: 95%. Shares and differences of shares from independent periods use the Kish effective sample size and a normal approximation, with standard errors combined in quadrature; the terms of the two decompositions and the CPS-adjusted degree shares come from a percentile bootstrap that resamples respondents within each election (400 replicates, seed 12345); the CPS voter-minus-eligible difference uses a Taylor linearization with the CPS weights, and the CPS counterfactual (2024 voters with 1996 turnout rates for degree holders and other adults) a bootstrap within year. All intervals are model based. The CES is an opt-in panel and the CPS extract has no replicate weights, so those intervals leave out how respondents were recruited and the survey design. Suppression: a published share needs at least 100 voters in its denominator, a Kish effective sample of at least 100 and at least 30 respondents in the group and party; the other-races vote share in the earlier period (57 respondents) and the 1952 Democratic degree share are dropped. Survey mode: the ANES 2012, 2016 and 2024 samples mix modes and the 2020 study has no mode weights; the text and the survey-check figure report face-to-face and web estimates (2008 is face to face only). Benchmark: the certified two-party share from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab state returns, full counts.

## What these data cannot show

- The surveys interview different people in each election, so the chapter compares groups and not individuals.
- It cannot say whether a voter changed party, how much of a change comes from older voters leaving the electorate and younger ones entering it, or how much comes from different people turning out.
- The group terms of the decompositions are arithmetic and describe a split of numbers, not a mechanism, and the within-cell term in particular absorbs every change that the cells do not hold fixed.
- The split is also sensitive to the groups chosen: degree holders were a smaller share of voters in the first period than in the second.
- Vote and turnout are self-reports.
- The ANES leans Democratic in its late elections, the CES is an opt-in panel whose weights match it to the adult population and not to voters, and the CPS has no vote choice.
- No survey here measures a party's voters exactly.
- Nonvoters have no vote preference in these data, third-party voters are outside the two-party frame, and the CES file used here has no validated turnout.
- The ANES samples of 2012, 2016 and 2024 mix interview modes and the 2020 study has no mode weights, so a change between those elections can include a change of mode.
- Intervals are model based and leave out the sample designs; the CPS intervals in particular are narrower than the survey's own design-based errors.
- Several groups are coarse.
- Education below a degree is not analysed, because the ANES cumulative file defines its lower groups differently after 2016.
- The ANES identifies Hispanic respondents from 1966 and has few of them before the 1990s.
- The early race cells therefore pool Hispanic voters with voters of other races for the coalition shares and drop the other-races group for the vote shares.
- The relative income thirds do not describe dollar income, and religion in the ANES cumulative file stops at 2020 with four categories.
- The two periods, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024, were chosen to give each group enough respondents, and a different choice of years would give different numbers.
- The chapter does not examine why any group's vote changed, how the parties' candidates, issues or campaigns affected it, or how coalitions differ below the national level.

## References

1. Kish, Leslie (1965). Survey Sampling. John Wiley and Sons.
2. Axelrod, Robert (1972). Where the Votes Come From: An Analysis of Electoral Coalitions, 1952-1968. American Political Science Review 66(1): 11-20. https://doi.org/10.2307/1959275
3. McDonald, Michael P.; Popkin, Samuel L. (2001). The Myth of the Vanishing Voter. American Political Science Review 95(4): 963-974. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055400400134
4. Hur, Aram; Achen, Christopher H. (2013). Coding Voter Turnout Responses in the Current Population Survey. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(4): 985-993. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nft042
5. Kitagawa, Evelyn M. (1955). Components of a Difference Between Two Rates. Journal of the American Statistical Association 50(272): 1168-1194. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1955.10501299
6. Ansolabehere, Stephen; Hersh, Eitan (2012). Validation: What Big Data Reveal About Survey Misreporting and the Real Electorate. Political Analysis 20(4): 437-459. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps023

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/the-two-coalitions/build.py (sha256 4a405eb565123840e36513967d8cb9e22260bb06e9f2678bcf9fe30348b0236e)
- Built on: 2026-10-03
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

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| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
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Outputs:

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| figures/composition_trends.json | 712c6afbd202b9ba33edc9c85825c00357b4f724d9cdc9c43ace200b54d8ea5f |
| figures/eligible_vs_voters.json | 38124cd03b0abd79e6c3a21827fb1ff847981faec076f451a47fb6d4bcc9da06 |
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| meta.json | 09b1a95716ca52322acac08dbb40842090ba672edf6e9531837fd607aa77704e |
| refs.json | c331ace2daa30d012afb5ae0c9c06603a20463a932823ce5e9bfe92584035768 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-two-coalitions/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "two_denominators" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/two_denominators.json
- Table 2, figure "eligible_vs_voters" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/eligible_vs_voters.json
- Table 3, figure "population_ladder" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/population_ladder.json
- Table 4, figure "composition_trends" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/composition_trends.json
- Table 5, figure "composition_stacks" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/composition_stacks.json
- Table 6, figure "group_vote_shares" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/group_vote_shares.json
- Table 7, figure "size_lean_split" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/size_lean_split.json
- Table 8, figure "vote_split" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/vote_split.json
- Table 9, figure "survey_check" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-two-coalitions/figures/survey_check.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt