# Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024: report

Chapter 6.2 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024
- Chapter: 6.2 (Part VI, Election results at different scales; Votes, giving and places)
- Question: What share of voters live in counties far from the national result, and how does today compare with the Solid South era?
- Dek: The share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 56.5% in 2024.
- Grain: places
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - County election returns. County presidential returns, 1868-2024: Algara and Amlani (1868-2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired file; years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts); shares of votes weight each county by its two-party votes, shares of counties count each county once
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026thelandslidecounty

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026thelandslidecounty,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Distance from the national vote, 1868 to 2024},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| distance from the national margin that makes a county far | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 | 20 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | cut |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 | 25.5% |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | far_v_1976 |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 56.5% |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | far_v_2024 |
| count of elections | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 | 40 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_elections |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 | 58.8% |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | far_v_2016 |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1872 | 50.8% |   | 2,160 | none (full counts) | County election returns | far_v_1872 |
| absolute national two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 | 23.6 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | nat_margin_1972 |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is 20 or more points from an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 | 59.0% |   | 3,110 | none (full counts) | County election returns | raw20_v_1972 |
| share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 | 31.6% |   | 3,110 | none (full counts) | County election returns | far_v_1972 |
| cutoff for a strong third-party vote | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 | 10% |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | third_cut |

## Findings

Across the 40 presidential elections from 1868 to 2024, the share of two-party votes cast in far counties, those whose margin sits far from the national margin of the same election, was lowest in 1976, at 25.5%, and was 56.5% in 2024. Outside the third-party years, 2016, 2020 and 2024 have the three highest shares, led by 2016 at 58.8%, and the next highest is 1872, at 50.8%.

A far county is a county whose two-party margin differs from the national margin of the same election by 20 or more points. It is this chapter's version of the landslide county, and it differs from an ordinary landslide county, whose own winning margin is lopsided. The margin is measured against the nation and not against an even split, so that a national landslide does not read as a geographic one. A county's margin relative to the nation is its two-party margin minus the national two-party margin of the same election, in points, and the national margin is computed on the counties kept for that election. In 1972 the Republican nominee led the two-party vote by 23.6 points, and 59.0% of votes were cast in counties whose own margin was 20 or more points from an even split, against 31.6% in counties that far from the national margin. A third-party year is an election in which candidates outside the two major parties won at least 10% of all votes, or 1948, when a States' Rights ticket won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. Alaska is left out, the District of Columbia enters in 1964, and the county handling is that of Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/nationalization-of-the-county-vote), which measures how far counties moved between elections; this chapter measures how far they sit from the nation within one election. (Note: The returns for 1868 to 2020 are the Algara and Amlani county file, which Amlani and Algara [1] describe for 1872 to 2020, and those for 2024 come from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.) The chapter follows the share of votes cast in far counties from 1868 to 2024, compares the former Confederacy with the rest of the country, and tests whether the result comes from the number or size of counties.

### A low in 1976, a plateau since 2016

Table 1 plots the share for every election. It reached a low of 25.5% in 1976 and rose by 33.3 points over the 10 elections to 2016, when it was 58.8%. It was 56.6% in 2020, and the plateau held in 2024. The share at 40 or more points from the nation peaked in 2016 at 30.2% and was 25.2% in 2024, so the plateau does not hold at that cutoff. (Note: From 1928 to 1972 the elections that are not third-party years lie between 31.6% and 40.9%, so the 1976 low is below that range and the rise is measured from a trough. Even 2024, the lowest of the last three shares, is 15.6 points above the top of the range. The 1868 value, 42.3%, is not on the same set of states as the values from 1872, because the 1868 returns lack Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia. In 1904 the share was 48.1%, the highest value between 1876 and 1972 among the elections that are not third-party years. At 40 or more points the share was 3.7% in 1976, and its highest value before 2016 was 24.1%, in 1924.)

Table 1. The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024

The third-party years are 1892, 1912, 1924, 1948, 1968, 1992 and 1996. The two-party margin leaves the third-party votes out, so the shares for those years describe the two major parties' voters only, with one exception. In Alabama in 1948 the returns file records the States' Rights ticket, which held the Democratic line because Truman was not on the ballot, as the Democratic vote. The highest value in the series, 61.3%, belongs to 1924, a third-party year.

Counting each county once changes the date of the low. Counted by county, 79.1% of counties were far in 2024 and 37.3% in 1976, and the low falls in 1988, at 35.8%. In every election the share of counties is above the share of votes, which means that far counties are on average smaller than the others. The votes-and-counties toggle in Table 1 shows both.

The rise did not come evenly. Table 2 gives the change from one election to the next since 1980. In 3 elections the share rose by more than 7 points, 1980 by +8.3, 2000 by +7.4 and 2016 by +8.3. No other election after 1976 changed it by more than 3.2 points, and the largest fall between 1976 and 2016 was 0.7 points. The 2000 step starts from 1996, a third-party year whose share describes the two major parties' voters only. The 1976 low is itself a fall from the 31.6% of 1972. The step in 1980 came outside the former Confederacy. Inside it the share was 29.6% in 1976 and 29.5% in 1980, while in the rest of the country it rose from 24.3% to 35.2%. The step in 2016 coincides with the one late rise in the spread of county swings that Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/nationalization-of-the-county-vote) reports for 2012 to 2016.

Table 2. The share rose by more than 7 points in 3 elections after 1976, in 1980, 2000 and 2016, and no other election moved it by more than 3.2

### The former Confederacy stood apart until 1944; now every region is far

The former Confederacy is the states that seceded and were readmitted after the Civil War. (Note: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.) Table 3 gives the share of each region's own votes cast in far counties, measured against the national margin of each election. In every election from 1892 through 1944 except 1928, when it was 52.9%, at least 67.0% of the former Confederacy's votes were cast in far counties, and the share was 86.3% in 1904 and 94.1% in 1924. In 1904, 83.5% of the region's votes were cast in counties at least 20 points more Democratic than the nation. That is the Solid South, the one-party region whose politics Key described [2]. After 1944 the share fell, and from 1976 to 1996 it stayed between 29.5% and 35.2%. It reached 65.0% in 2016 and is 58.0% in 2024, below its 1904 level. The far counties of 2024 lean the other way. 41.2% of the region's votes were cast in counties at least 20 points more Republican than the nation and 16.8% in counties that far on the Democratic side.

Table 3. The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%

The rest of the country never exceeded 49.0% in an election before 2016 that is not a third-party year, was 43.7% in 1904, fell to 24.3% in 1976 and is 55.7% in 2024. The five-region view shows how far the change reaches. In 2024 the share runs from 52.5% in the Northeast to 70.1% in Other South, the rest of the Census South. In 1976 it ran from 18.8% to 31.2%. In 1904 it was above 50% only in the South, and the Northeast, Midwest and West lay between 37.5% and 46.8%.

The Solid South supplied a smaller part of the far-county vote than its extreme share suggests. The former Confederacy cast 10.2% of the nation's votes in 1904 and 32.5% in 2024, so its far counties held 18.4% of the far-county votes in 1904 and hold 33.4% in 2024. Most of the national share in 1904, 48.1%, therefore came from counties elsewhere, in a year when the Republican lead in the national margin was 19.9 points.

### Far counties are mostly Republican by count and even by votes

Table 4 colors each county by its margin minus the national margin for seven elections, with the classes broken at the far and very far cutoffs. In 2024, 79.1% of counties fall in the two outer classes on either side, against 37.3% in 1976. In each of the five regions more than 50% of counties are far in 2024, from 53.9% in the Northeast to 91.8% in Other South. In 1976 only the former Confederacy exceeded 50% of its counties, at 50.7%, and the highest of the other four regions was 45.7%.

Table 4. In 2024, 79.1% of counties were 20 or more points from the national margin, against 37.3% in 1976

By count the far counties of 2024 lean Republican, and by votes they divide evenly between the parties (Table 5). Of the 2,463 counties at least 20 points from the national margin, 2,234 were more Republican than the nation and 229 more Democratic. Far Democratic counties cast 28.2% of the two-party votes and far Republican counties 28.2%, because the average far Democratic county cast 9.8 times as many votes as the average far Republican county. In 1976, 704 far counties were more Democratic than the nation and 456 more Republican, and the two shares of votes were 13.2% and 12.3%. The 1904 and 1940 maps show the former Confederacy on the Democratic side of the nation, with 82.5% of its votes cast in counties at least 20 points more Democratic than the nation in 1940, against 83.5% in 1904.

Table 5. In 2024, 229 far Democratic and 2,234 far Republican counties each cast 28.2% of two-party votes

### Fewer votes fall near the national margin, but not steadily

Table 6 shows the distribution of county margins around the national margin for the same seven elections, with one ridge for each election and the share of votes within 5 points of the national margin beside each year. In 1976, 22.9% of votes were cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin, and in 2024 14.7% were. The 1976 share is the highest of the seven, 2016 is the lowest at 9.4%, and 1904 (13.5%) is below 2024, so the comparison of 1976 with 2024 is between two elections and not a trend. Between 1976 and 2024 the share within 5 points fell and the share beyond 40 points rose.

Table 6. The share of votes cast within 5 points of the national margin was 22.9% in 1976, 9.4% in 2016 and 14.7% in 2024

Distance from the nation differs from competitiveness. When the national margin is far from even, a county 20 points from the nation can still have a close margin of its own, and a county at the national margin is lopsided. The competitiveness of counties is better read from their own margins. On that raw basis, 23.4% of votes were cast in counties whose own margin was within 5 points of an even split in 1976 and 13.2% in 2024. Counted by county, 591 of 3,113 counties were that close in 1976 and 155 are in 2024. (Note: The median county margin, ignoring its sign, rose from 14.4 points in 1976 to 43.9 in 2024.) Chapter 6.3, Precincts within counties (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/precincts-within-counties) looks below the county line, where a county's margin can hide neighborhoods that vote very differently.

### Fixed panels and state margins also show a rise

The number of counties in the returns rose from 1,696 in 1868 to 3,113 in 2024, and smaller units could spread margins more by construction. The number is 3,113 in both 1976 and 2024, though the units are not all the same ones. Table 7 repeats the calculation on a fixed panel of 1,652 counties that report in every election from 1868. From 1976 to 2024 the panel's share rose by 38.5 points, against 31.0 for all counties, and from 2016 to 2024 it changed by +0.2 points where the share for all counties fell 2.3. The panel's share was 22.0% in 1976, the same at one decimal as in 1916 (22.0%), so the low is shared in the panel. (Note: The panel's share was 42.0% in 1868 and 45.5% in 1904, against 42.3% and 48.1% for all counties, and it was 60.3% in 2016, 59.4% in 2020 and 60.5% in 2024. Before 2016 it never exceeded 52.2%. The second view of the figure adds a panel that starts in 1872 and keeps Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia; it has its low in 1976 and its three highest shares in 2016, 2020 and 2024.)

Table 7. In a fixed panel of counties the share rose 38.5 points from 1976 to 2024, against 31.0 for all counties

The states give a second check with units that change far less. The number of states, counting the District of Columbia, was 33 in 1868 and is 50 in both 1976 and 2024. Table 8 splits the vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin into two parts. One is the spread of state margins around the national margin and the other is the spread of county margins around their own state's margin, and the squares of the two add to the square of the total. The spread between states, whose units are the same in 1976 and 2024, rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024, so the rise since 1976 appears when the unit is the state. (Note: The cutoff of 20 points is a convention. At 25 and 30 points, 1976 is still the lowest election and 2016, 2020 and 2024 are still the three highest among the elections that are not third-party years. At 15 points, 1916 (37.8%) falls slightly below 1976 (38.3%), which is the one place where the lowest election changes.)

Set against the Solid South era, the spread between states is smaller in 2024 than in any election from 1892 to 1924, and the spread within states is larger in 2024 than in any election before 2000. The 2016 and 2020 values between states are above the 1892 to 1924 minimum. The spread within states is measured on counties and so is open to the concern about unit size. The highest value before 2000 is the 1872 one, which rests on Reconstruction-era returns that the last section describes. (Note: Between states the spread was 26.4 points in 1904 and 31.8 in 1924, and within states it was 18.9 and 18.8. The share of the variance of county margins that lies within states was 33.9% in 1904 and 25.8% in 1924, against 72.4% in 2024.)

Table 8. The spread of state margins around the national margin rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024

### The far share and the size of the national margin

Measuring against the national margin removes the level of the nation's result, so the far share could still move with how lopsided that result was. Across the 33 elections that are not third-party years, the correlation between the far share and the size of the national margin is −0.07 (95% CI −0.40 to 0.28), close to zero. The sign differs between the eras. The correlation is +0.42 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.70) across the 26 through 1996 and −0.12 (95% CI −0.80 to 0.70) across the 7 from 2000, where the interval is wide. The intervals treat the elections as independent, which adjacent elections are not, so they are narrower than they should be.

Since 1976 the share has risen through elections with national margins of different size. In 1984 the Republican lead was 18.3 points and the share was 35.9%, and in 2020 the Democratic lead was 4.6 points and the share was 56.6%.

### Several accounts of the rise fit these returns

The returns show that far counties became more common and do not say why. Hopkins argues that American political behavior has nationalized, with voters attending more to national than to local politics [3]. Counties that swing together, the pattern in Chapter 6.1, Nationalization of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/nationalization-of-the-county-vote), can still sit at different distances from the nation. Rodden traces an urban-rural divide in partisan geography [4]. The growth of the spread within states, from 15.7 points in 1976 to 30.3 in 2016, is consistent with a divide between cities and their rural surroundings inside states, though the returns contain no measure of density. Bishop and Cushing read the growth of landslide counties as evidence that people moved to places that share their politics [5], an account of party sorting by place. Their landslide counties are measured against an even split, the ordinary winning-margin definition. A cutoff of 20 points from an even split gives 26.7% for 1976 and 48.2% for 2004 in these returns, close to the shares they reported for those years, although theirs are shares of Americans and this one is a share of two-party votes. Abrams and Fiorina dispute the sorting account and recompute landslide counties from voter registration in place of presidential returns [6]. County returns record where votes were cast and not who cast them, who moved or why, so they cannot rank these accounts. Planned, Reconstruction and the modern map (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/reconstruction-and-the-modern-map; planned) relates the Southern county map of the 1870s to that of 2024, and Planned, The South (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-south; planned) takes up the region directly.

### What these data cannot show

Returns record where votes were cast. A county far from the national margin can contain voters of both parties in large numbers, and returns cannot tell voters who changed their choice from people who started or stopped voting or moved in or out, a limit known as ecological inference. Returns also count votes cast and not residents. Where the franchise was restricted, as in the former Confederacy for much of the period before the Voting Rights Act, the shares for the region describe the electorate that voted and not the adult population. Southern returns from the Reconstruction years were collected under contested counts and political violence that the returns do not record.

The two-party margin leaves out the third-party votes in the third-party years, and it cannot say where those voters would have gone. Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized, so the fixed panels and the state comparison reduce the concern about unit size and do not remove it. The panels cover 63.5% and 74.7% of the 2024 votes and are not a sample of the country.

The chapter measures how far counties sit from the nation in each election. It does not say what a far county is like, how competitive its own contests are, or whether the far counties of 2024 differ from those of 1904 in the kinds of people who live in them. The series ends with 2024 and makes no forecast. The share for all counties rose from 1976 to 2016 and has not risen since. The returns cannot say whether the plateau will hold.

## Tables

### Table 1. The share of votes cast in counties far from the national margin rose from 25.5% in 1976 to 58.8% in 2016 and was 56.5% in 2024

Share of two-party votes, or of counties in the second view, at least 20 (upper line) and 40 (lower line) points from the national margin of the same election, percent, 1868 to 2024

| Counted by | Election | Distance from national margin | Share (%) | Counties | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Votes | 1868 | 20+ points | 42.3 | 1,696 | n/a |
| Votes | 1868 | 40+ points | 17.9 | 1,696 | n/a |
| Votes | 1872 | 20+ points | 50.8 | 2,160 | n/a |
| Votes | 1872 | 40+ points | 20.0 | 2,160 | n/a |
| Votes | 1876 | 20+ points | 38.1 | 2,230 | n/a |
| Votes | 1876 | 40+ points | 12.4 | 2,230 | n/a |
| Votes | 1880 | 20+ points | 38.1 | 2,291 | n/a |
| Votes | 1880 | 40+ points | 12.2 | 2,291 | n/a |
| Votes | 1884 | 20+ points | 30.8 | 2,351 | n/a |
| Votes | 1884 | 40+ points | 9.4 | 2,351 | n/a |
| Votes | 1888 | 20+ points | 29.9 | 2,429 | n/a |
| Votes | 1888 | 40+ points | 9.1 | 2,429 | n/a |
| Votes | 1892 | 20+ points | 33.4 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1892 | 40+ points | 13.8 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1896 | 20+ points | 41.1 | 2,715 | n/a |
| Votes | 1896 | 40+ points | 16.9 | 2,715 | n/a |
| Votes | 1900 | 20+ points | 32.9 | 2,711 | n/a |
| Votes | 1900 | 40+ points | 11.7 | 2,711 | n/a |
| Votes | 1904 | 20+ points | 48.1 | 2,723 | n/a |
| Votes | 1904 | 40+ points | 17.7 | 2,723 | n/a |
| Votes | 1908 | 20+ points | 32.9 | 2,856 | n/a |
| Votes | 1908 | 40+ points | 10.0 | 2,856 | n/a |
| Votes | 1912 | 20+ points | 49.9 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1912 | 40+ points | 18.9 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1916 | 20+ points | 29.8 | 3,022 | n/a |
| Votes | 1916 | 40+ points | 8.9 | 3,022 | n/a |
| Votes | 1920 | 20+ points | 44.0 | 3,054 | n/a |
| Votes | 1920 | 40+ points | 12.2 | 3,054 | n/a |
| Votes | 1924 | 20+ points | 61.3 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1924 | 40+ points | 24.1 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1928 | 20+ points | 39.0 | 3,097 | n/a |
| Votes | 1928 | 40+ points | 12.1 | 3,097 | n/a |
| Votes | 1932 | 20+ points | 40.9 | 3,096 | n/a |
| Votes | 1932 | 40+ points | 11.2 | 3,096 | n/a |
| Votes | 1936 | 20+ points | 39.2 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Votes | 1936 | 40+ points | 10.2 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Votes | 1940 | 20+ points | 33.3 | 3,094 | n/a |
| Votes | 1940 | 40+ points | 11.6 | 3,094 | n/a |
| Votes | 1944 | 20+ points | 33.9 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Votes | 1944 | 40+ points | 10.7 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Votes | 1948 | 20+ points | 28.6 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1948 | 40+ points | 8.3 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1952 | 20+ points | 36.8 | 3,098 | n/a |
| Votes | 1952 | 40+ points | 6.3 | 3,098 | n/a |
| Votes | 1956 | 20+ points | 32.5 | 3,100 | n/a |
| Votes | 1956 | 40+ points | 4.9 | 3,100 | n/a |
| Votes | 1960 | 20+ points | 32.8 | 3,105 | n/a |
| Votes | 1960 | 40+ points | 4.2 | 3,105 | n/a |
| Votes | 1964 | 20+ points | 32.5 | 3,107 | n/a |
| Votes | 1964 | 40+ points | 5.5 | 3,107 | n/a |
| Votes | 1968 | 20+ points | 37.2 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1968 | 40+ points | 8.9 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1972 | 20+ points | 31.6 | 3,110 | n/a |
| Votes | 1972 | 40+ points | 3.9 | 3,110 | n/a |
| Votes | 1976 | 20+ points | 25.5 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 1976 | 40+ points | 3.7 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 1980 | 20+ points | 33.8 | 3,112 | n/a |
| Votes | 1980 | 40+ points | 4.3 | 3,112 | n/a |
| Votes | 1984 | 20+ points | 35.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 1984 | 40+ points | 5.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 1988 | 20+ points | 35.8 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 1988 | 40+ points | 5.6 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 1992 | 20+ points | 38.6 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1992 | 40+ points | 6.9 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1996 | 20+ points | 37.9 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 1996 | 40+ points | 7.9 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| Votes | 2000 | 20+ points | 45.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2000 | 40+ points | 13.0 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2004 | 20+ points | 46.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2004 | 40+ points | 14.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2008 | 20+ points | 47.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2008 | 40+ points | 18.1 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2012 | 20+ points | 50.5 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2012 | 40+ points | 20.5 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Votes | 2016 | 20+ points | 58.8 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 2016 | 40+ points | 30.2 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 2020 | 20+ points | 56.6 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 2020 | 40+ points | 29.6 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 2024 | 20+ points | 56.5 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Votes | 2024 | 40+ points | 25.2 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 1868 | 20+ points | 55.9 | 1,696 | n/a |
| Counties | 1868 | 40+ points | 30.8 | 1,696 | n/a |
| Counties | 1872 | 20+ points | 61.2 | 2,160 | n/a |
| Counties | 1872 | 40+ points | 36.3 | 2,160 | n/a |
| Counties | 1876 | 20+ points | 56.4 | 2,230 | n/a |
| Counties | 1876 | 40+ points | 30.4 | 2,230 | n/a |
| Counties | 1880 | 20+ points | 56.4 | 2,291 | n/a |
| Counties | 1880 | 40+ points | 29.7 | 2,291 | n/a |
| Counties | 1884 | 20+ points | 49.3 | 2,351 | n/a |
| Counties | 1884 | 40+ points | 23.2 | 2,351 | n/a |
| Counties | 1888 | 20+ points | 50.1 | 2,429 | n/a |
| Counties | 1888 | 40+ points | 23.6 | 2,429 | n/a |
| Counties | 1892 | 20+ points | 59.0 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1892 | 40+ points | 39.6 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1896 | 20+ points | 56.6 | 2,715 | n/a |
| Counties | 1896 | 40+ points | 32.3 | 2,715 | n/a |
| Counties | 1900 | 20+ points | 52.1 | 2,711 | n/a |
| Counties | 1900 | 40+ points | 27.4 | 2,711 | n/a |
| Counties | 1904 | 20+ points | 67.2 | 2,723 | n/a |
| Counties | 1904 | 40+ points | 39.9 | 2,723 | n/a |
| Counties | 1908 | 20+ points | 52.0 | 2,856 | n/a |
| Counties | 1908 | 40+ points | 29.9 | 2,856 | n/a |
| Counties | 1912 | 20+ points | 61.1 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1912 | 40+ points | 35.3 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1916 | 20+ points | 51.2 | 3,022 | n/a |
| Counties | 1916 | 40+ points | 31.0 | 3,022 | n/a |
| Counties | 1920 | 20+ points | 60.3 | 3,054 | n/a |
| Counties | 1920 | 40+ points | 36.2 | 3,054 | n/a |
| Counties | 1924 | 20+ points | 71.9 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1924 | 40+ points | 46.2 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1928 | 20+ points | 50.2 | 3,097 | n/a |
| Counties | 1928 | 40+ points | 22.2 | 3,097 | n/a |
| Counties | 1932 | 20+ points | 54.3 | 3,096 | n/a |
| Counties | 1932 | 40+ points | 33.8 | 3,096 | n/a |
| Counties | 1936 | 20+ points | 56.5 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Counties | 1936 | 40+ points | 30.7 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Counties | 1940 | 20+ points | 62.3 | 3,094 | n/a |
| Counties | 1940 | 40+ points | 36.1 | 3,094 | n/a |
| Counties | 1944 | 20+ points | 62.8 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Counties | 1944 | 40+ points | 34.8 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Counties | 1948 | 20+ points | 54.3 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1948 | 40+ points | 30.7 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1952 | 20+ points | 56.8 | 3,098 | n/a |
| Counties | 1952 | 40+ points | 22.9 | 3,098 | n/a |
| Counties | 1956 | 20+ points | 46.2 | 3,100 | n/a |
| Counties | 1956 | 40+ points | 18.3 | 3,100 | n/a |
| Counties | 1960 | 20+ points | 47.7 | 3,105 | n/a |
| Counties | 1960 | 40+ points | 14.6 | 3,105 | n/a |
| Counties | 1964 | 20+ points | 40.2 | 3,107 | n/a |
| Counties | 1964 | 40+ points | 13.7 | 3,107 | n/a |
| Counties | 1968 | 20+ points | 49.8 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1968 | 40+ points | 16.0 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1972 | 20+ points | 41.2 | 3,110 | n/a |
| Counties | 1972 | 40+ points | 7.3 | 3,110 | n/a |
| Counties | 1976 | 20+ points | 37.3 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 1976 | 40+ points | 9.8 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 1980 | 20+ points | 44.0 | 3,112 | n/a |
| Counties | 1980 | 40+ points | 12.5 | 3,112 | n/a |
| Counties | 1984 | 20+ points | 37.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 1984 | 40+ points | 7.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 1988 | 20+ points | 35.8 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 1988 | 40+ points | 5.4 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 1992 | 20+ points | 38.9 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1992 | 40+ points | 9.1 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1996 | 20+ points | 42.1 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 1996 | 40+ points | 11.9 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| Counties | 2000 | 20+ points | 53.4 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2000 | 40+ points | 19.6 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2004 | 20+ points | 56.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2004 | 40+ points | 22.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2008 | 20+ points | 62.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2008 | 40+ points | 31.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2012 | 20+ points | 67.9 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2012 | 40+ points | 36.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Counties | 2016 | 20+ points | 80.1 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 2016 | 40+ points | 56.1 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 2020 | 20+ points | 80.2 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 2020 | 40+ points | 56.6 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 2024 | 20+ points | 79.1 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Counties | 2024 | 40+ points | 54.0 | 3,113 | n/a |

Views: Share of votes (basis = Votes); Share of counties (basis = Counties).

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/far_share.json

### Table 2. The share rose by more than 7 points in 3 elections after 1976, in 1980, 2000 and 2016, and no other election moved it by more than 3.2

Change from the previous election in the share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percentage points, 1980 to 2024

| Election | Change (points) | Share of votes in far counties (%) | Note |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 1980 | +8.3 | 33.8 | n/a |
| 1984 | +2.1 | 35.9 | n/a |
| 1988 | −0.1 | 35.8 | n/a |
| 1992 | +2.8 | 38.6 | Third-party year |
| 1996 | −0.7 | 37.9 | Third-party year |
| 2000 | +7.4 | 45.3 | n/a |
| 2004 | +1.6 | 46.9 | n/a |
| 2008 | +0.4 | 47.3 | n/a |
| 2012 | +3.2 | 50.5 | n/a |
| 2016 | +8.3 | 58.8 | n/a |
| 2020 | −2.2 | 56.6 | n/a |
| 2024 | −0.1 | 56.5 | n/a |

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/step_changes.json

### Table 3. The former Confederacy fell from 86.3% of its votes in far counties in 1904 to 58.0% in 2024, and the rest of the country rose to 55.7%

Share of a region's two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percent, presidential elections 1868 to 2024

| View | Election | Region | Share of region's votes in far counties (%) | Region's share of national votes (%) | Counties | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Two groups | 1868 | Confederacy | 63.1 | 14.5 | 485 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1868 | Confederacy | 63.1 | 14.5 | 485 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1868 | Other South | 75.4 | 6.0 | 190 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1868 | Northeast | 38.6 | 38.6 | 214 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1868 | Midwest | 34.8 | 38.4 | 725 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1868 | West | 13.2 | 2.5 | 82 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1868 | Rest of US | 38.8 | 85.5 | 1,211 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1872 | Confederacy | 58.0 | 22.2 | 871 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1872 | Confederacy | 58.0 | 22.2 | 871 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1872 | Other South | 51.6 | 7.2 | 194 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1872 | Northeast | 37.2 | 33.3 | 214 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1872 | Midwest | 57.2 | 35.3 | 797 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1872 | West | 79.8 | 2.0 | 84 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1872 | Rest of US | 48.7 | 77.8 | 1,289 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1876 | Confederacy | 59.3 | 21.5 | 901 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1876 | Confederacy | 59.3 | 21.5 | 901 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1876 | Other South | 31.3 | 7.2 | 197 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1876 | Northeast | 29.4 | 31.8 | 214 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1876 | Midwest | 36.0 | 37.1 | 829 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1876 | West | 17.3 | 2.5 | 89 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1876 | Rest of US | 32.3 | 78.5 | 1,329 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1880 | Confederacy | 61.0 | 19.0 | 918 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1880 | Confederacy | 61.0 | 19.0 | 918 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1880 | Other South | 27.6 | 6.8 | 188 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1880 | Northeast | 28.5 | 32.8 | 215 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1880 | Midwest | 39.1 | 38.4 | 850 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1880 | West | 10.6 | 3.1 | 120 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1880 | Rest of US | 32.8 | 81.0 | 1,373 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1884 | Confederacy | 57.0 | 19.4 | 945 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1884 | Confederacy | 57.0 | 19.4 | 945 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1884 | Other South | 23.9 | 7.0 | 199 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1884 | Northeast | 18.8 | 30.2 | 215 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1884 | Midwest | 29.5 | 40.1 | 862 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1884 | West | 15.3 | 3.3 | 130 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1884 | Rest of US | 24.4 | 80.6 | 1,406 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1888 | Confederacy | 59.0 | 18.2 | 969 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1888 | Confederacy | 59.0 | 18.2 | 969 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1888 | Other South | 19.6 | 7.4 | 200 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1888 | Northeast | 19.2 | 30.2 | 212 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1888 | Midwest | 27.9 | 40.5 | 911 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1888 | West | 15.5 | 3.7 | 137 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1888 | Rest of US | 23.4 | 81.8 | 1,460 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1892 | Confederacy | 70.8 | 16.0 | 999 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1892 | Confederacy | 70.8 | 16.0 | 999 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1892 | Other South | 19.4 | 7.5 | 200 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1892 | Northeast | 26.0 | 31.6 | 215 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1892 | Midwest | 27.5 | 40.8 | 1,012 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1892 | West | 29.6 | 4.1 | 232 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1892 | Rest of US | 26.3 | 84.0 | 1,659 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1896 | Confederacy | 67.0 | 15.7 | 1,006 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1896 | Confederacy | 67.0 | 15.7 | 1,006 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1896 | Other South | 22.8 | 7.7 | 201 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1896 | Northeast | 47.6 | 28.0 | 213 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1896 | Midwest | 28.2 | 42.3 | 1,018 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1896 | West | 56.8 | 6.3 | 277 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1896 | Rest of US | 36.3 | 84.3 | 1,709 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1900 | Confederacy | 69.0 | 13.1 | 994 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1900 | Confederacy | 69.0 | 13.1 | 994 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1900 | Other South | 22.0 | 8.0 | 201 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1900 | Northeast | 31.1 | 28.7 | 216 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1900 | Midwest | 25.7 | 43.3 | 1,018 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1900 | West | 29.9 | 6.9 | 282 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1900 | Rest of US | 27.5 | 86.9 | 1,717 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1904 | Confederacy | 86.3 | 10.2 | 1,000 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1904 | Confederacy | 86.3 | 10.2 | 1,000 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1904 | Other South | 61.7 | 7.9 | 201 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1904 | Northeast | 37.5 | 31.5 | 216 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1904 | Midwest | 44.5 | 42.5 | 1,020 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1904 | West | 46.8 | 7.8 | 286 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1904 | Rest of US | 43.7 | 89.8 | 1,723 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1908 | Confederacy | 75.8 | 10.8 | 1,045 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1908 | Confederacy | 75.8 | 10.8 | 1,045 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1908 | Other South | 29.5 | 8.8 | 276 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1908 | Northeast | 33.5 | 29.1 | 216 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1908 | Midwest | 23.5 | 43.0 | 1,027 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1908 | West | 27.4 | 8.3 | 292 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1908 | Rest of US | 27.7 | 89.2 | 1,811 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1912 | Confederacy | 81.4 | 12.5 | 1,078 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1912 | Confederacy | 81.4 | 12.5 | 1,078 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1912 | Other South | 47.3 | 10.1 | 279 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1912 | Northeast | 51.2 | 28.3 | 216 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1912 | Midwest | 36.6 | 39.8 | 1,043 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1912 | West | 63.9 | 9.3 | 327 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1912 | Rest of US | 45.4 | 87.5 | 1,865 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1916 | Confederacy | 79.2 | 10.1 | 1,100 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1916 | Confederacy | 79.2 | 10.1 | 1,100 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1916 | Other South | 23.6 | 8.2 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1916 | Northeast | 31.5 | 24.9 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1916 | Midwest | 20.7 | 43.1 | 1,049 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1916 | West | 22.4 | 13.7 | 377 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1916 | Rest of US | 24.2 | 89.9 | 1,922 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1920 | Confederacy | 84.4 | 10.0 | 1,105 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1920 | Confederacy | 84.4 | 10.0 | 1,105 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1920 | Other South | 42.1 | 10.2 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1920 | Northeast | 28.8 | 28.1 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1920 | Midwest | 46.8 | 42.5 | 1,051 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1920 | West | 35.4 | 9.2 | 402 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1920 | Rest of US | 39.4 | 90.0 | 1,949 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1924 | Confederacy | 94.1 | 9.9 | 1,126 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1924 | Confederacy | 94.1 | 9.9 | 1,126 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1924 | Other South | 77.0 | 9.6 | 279 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1924 | Northeast | 44.6 | 31.0 | 217 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1924 | Midwest | 61.4 | 40.6 | 1,056 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1924 | West | 65.4 | 8.8 | 405 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1924 | Rest of US | 57.7 | 90.1 | 1,957 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1928 | Confederacy | 52.9 | 9.1 | 1,134 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1928 | Confederacy | 52.9 | 9.1 | 1,134 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1928 | Other South | 24.2 | 8.4 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1928 | Northeast | 46.7 | 32.4 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1928 | Midwest | 33.1 | 39.7 | 1,057 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1928 | West | 37.9 | 10.4 | 410 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1928 | Rest of US | 37.6 | 90.9 | 1,963 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1932 | Confederacy | 81.4 | 9.7 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1932 | Confederacy | 81.4 | 9.7 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1932 | Other South | 30.9 | 8.4 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1932 | Northeast | 69.3 | 30.4 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1932 | Midwest | 20.2 | 39.9 | 1,057 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1932 | West | 11.7 | 11.6 | 410 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1932 | Rest of US | 36.6 | 90.3 | 1,963 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1936 | Confederacy | 80.6 | 9.4 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1936 | Confederacy | 80.6 | 9.4 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1936 | Other South | 20.5 | 8.0 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1936 | Northeast | 51.3 | 32.3 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1936 | Midwest | 27.1 | 38.7 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1936 | West | 25.1 | 11.7 | 410 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1936 | Rest of US | 34.9 | 90.6 | 1,962 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1940 | Confederacy | 85.0 | 9.6 | 1,132 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1940 | Confederacy | 85.0 | 9.6 | 1,132 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1940 | Other South | 24.9 | 7.0 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1940 | Northeast | 29.8 | 31.9 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1940 | Midwest | 29.8 | 38.8 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1940 | West | 18.0 | 12.7 | 410 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1940 | Rest of US | 27.8 | 90.4 | 1,962 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1944 | Confederacy | 80.6 | 9.7 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1944 | Confederacy | 80.6 | 9.7 | 1,133 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1944 | Other South | 27.8 | 7.0 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1944 | Northeast | 28.4 | 31.6 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1944 | Midwest | 34.5 | 38.1 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1944 | West | 15.0 | 13.6 | 410 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1944 | Rest of US | 28.9 | 90.3 | 1,962 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1948 | Confederacy | 62.8 | 9.0 | 1,134 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1948 | Confederacy | 62.8 | 9.0 | 1,134 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1948 | Other South | 34.7 | 7.0 | 279 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1948 | Northeast | 31.3 | 31.9 | 217 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1948 | Midwest | 23.3 | 37.2 | 1,056 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1948 | West | 12.7 | 14.9 | 410 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1948 | Rest of US | 25.2 | 91.0 | 1,962 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1952 | Confederacy | 44.9 | 13.8 | 1,135 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1952 | Confederacy | 44.9 | 13.8 | 1,135 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1952 | Other South | 29.8 | 6.4 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1952 | Northeast | 45.9 | 30.1 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1952 | Midwest | 36.7 | 34.7 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1952 | West | 14.3 | 15.0 | 411 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1952 | Rest of US | 35.5 | 86.2 | 1,963 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1956 | Confederacy | 42.2 | 13.5 | 1,138 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1956 | Confederacy | 42.2 | 13.5 | 1,138 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1956 | Other South | 27.7 | 6.2 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1956 | Northeast | 49.0 | 30.4 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1956 | Midwest | 26.0 | 34.2 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1956 | West | 8.1 | 15.6 | 411 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1956 | Rest of US | 31.0 | 86.5 | 1,962 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1960 | Confederacy | 42.3 | 14.5 | 1,139 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1960 | Confederacy | 42.3 | 14.5 | 1,139 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1960 | Other South | 36.0 | 6.0 | 279 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1960 | Northeast | 38.2 | 29.3 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1960 | Midwest | 35.2 | 33.6 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1960 | West | 9.2 | 16.6 | 415 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1960 | Rest of US | 31.2 | 85.5 | 1,966 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1964 | Confederacy | 50.3 | 17.5 | 1,139 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1964 | Confederacy | 50.3 | 17.5 | 1,139 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1964 | Other South | 35.3 | 6.1 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1964 | Northeast | 41.2 | 27.8 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1964 | Midwest | 22.9 | 31.5 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1964 | West | 17.1 | 17.2 | 415 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1964 | Rest of US | 28.8 | 82.5 | 1,968 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1968 | Confederacy | 45.8 | 16.1 | 1,143 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1968 | Confederacy | 45.8 | 16.1 | 1,143 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1968 | Other South | 39.9 | 5.9 | 280 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1968 | Northeast | 42.4 | 27.9 | 217 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1968 | Midwest | 34.1 | 31.8 | 1,056 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1968 | West | 26.0 | 18.3 | 415 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1968 | Rest of US | 35.5 | 83.9 | 1,968 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1972 | Confederacy | 46.5 | 19.9 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1972 | Confederacy | 46.5 | 19.9 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1972 | Other South | 35.9 | 6.0 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1972 | Northeast | 32.4 | 25.9 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1972 | Midwest | 27.2 | 30.0 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1972 | West | 19.9 | 18.2 | 415 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1972 | Rest of US | 27.9 | 80.1 | 1,968 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1976 | Confederacy | 29.6 | 22.7 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1976 | Confederacy | 29.6 | 22.7 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1976 | Other South | 31.2 | 6.0 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1976 | Northeast | 25.3 | 24.0 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1976 | Midwest | 25.4 | 29.6 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1976 | West | 18.8 | 17.6 | 415 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1976 | Rest of US | 24.3 | 77.3 | 1,968 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1980 | Confederacy | 29.5 | 25.0 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1980 | Confederacy | 29.5 | 25.0 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1980 | Other South | 40.9 | 6.1 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1980 | Northeast | 26.3 | 21.7 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1980 | Midwest | 37.5 | 29.2 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1980 | West | 40.1 | 18.0 | 415 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1980 | Rest of US | 35.2 | 75.0 | 1,967 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1984 | Confederacy | 32.6 | 25.3 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1984 | Confederacy | 32.6 | 25.3 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1984 | Other South | 40.6 | 6.0 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1984 | Northeast | 35.3 | 22.2 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1984 | Midwest | 41.6 | 27.5 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1984 | West | 31.4 | 19.0 | 417 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1984 | Rest of US | 37.1 | 74.7 | 1,969 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1988 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 25.5 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1988 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 25.5 | 1,145 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1988 | Other South | 42.7 | 5.8 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1988 | Northeast | 34.1 | 21.7 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1988 | Midwest | 41.3 | 27.0 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 1988 | West | 28.8 | 19.9 | 417 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1988 | Rest of US | 36.0 | 74.5 | 1,969 | n/a |
| Two groups | 1992 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 27.5 | 1,145 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1992 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 27.5 | 1,145 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1992 | Other South | 42.1 | 6.0 | 280 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1992 | Northeast | 34.0 | 20.8 | 217 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1992 | Midwest | 41.3 | 26.2 | 1,055 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1992 | West | 43.7 | 19.5 | 418 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1992 | Rest of US | 39.9 | 72.5 | 1,970 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1996 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 28.1 | 1,144 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1996 | Confederacy | 35.2 | 28.1 | 1,144 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1996 | Other South | 39.3 | 5.7 | 280 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1996 | Northeast | 37.1 | 20.2 | 217 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1996 | Midwest | 37.9 | 25.7 | 1,055 | Third-party year |
| Five regions | 1996 | West | 42.1 | 20.3 | 418 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 1996 | Rest of US | 39.0 | 71.9 | 1,970 | Third-party year |
| Two groups | 2000 | Confederacy | 43.8 | 28.4 | 1,144 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2000 | Confederacy | 43.8 | 28.4 | 1,144 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2000 | Other South | 54.5 | 5.8 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2000 | Northeast | 43.3 | 19.8 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2000 | Midwest | 43.2 | 25.7 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2000 | West | 49.3 | 20.3 | 418 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2000 | Rest of US | 45.9 | 71.6 | 1,970 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2004 | Confederacy | 49.2 | 28.9 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2004 | Confederacy | 49.2 | 28.9 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2004 | Other South | 60.2 | 5.8 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2004 | Northeast | 39.7 | 19.2 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2004 | Midwest | 44.2 | 25.4 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2004 | West | 49.8 | 20.8 | 419 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2004 | Rest of US | 45.9 | 71.1 | 1,971 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2008 | Confederacy | 52.3 | 30.2 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2008 | Confederacy | 52.3 | 30.2 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2008 | Other South | 68.3 | 5.6 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2008 | Northeast | 37.3 | 18.7 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2008 | Midwest | 43.2 | 24.5 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2008 | West | 48.4 | 21.0 | 419 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2008 | Rest of US | 45.2 | 69.8 | 1,971 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2012 | Confederacy | 53.9 | 30.9 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2012 | Confederacy | 53.9 | 30.9 | 1,143 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2012 | Other South | 71.9 | 5.6 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2012 | Northeast | 43.0 | 18.2 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2012 | Midwest | 46.9 | 24.2 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2012 | West | 50.5 | 21.1 | 419 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2012 | Rest of US | 49.0 | 69.1 | 1,971 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2016 | Confederacy | 65.0 | 31.8 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2016 | Confederacy | 65.0 | 31.8 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2016 | Other South | 75.9 | 5.7 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2016 | Northeast | 49.8 | 18.1 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2016 | Midwest | 60.5 | 23.3 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2016 | West | 50.6 | 21.1 | 419 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2016 | Rest of US | 55.9 | 68.2 | 1,971 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2020 | Confederacy | 59.6 | 31.7 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2020 | Confederacy | 59.6 | 31.7 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2020 | Other South | 74.1 | 5.3 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2020 | Northeast | 50.5 | 17.8 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2020 | Midwest | 58.4 | 22.1 | 1,055 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2020 | West | 51.3 | 23.1 | 419 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2020 | Rest of US | 55.1 | 68.3 | 1,971 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2024 | Confederacy | 58.0 | 32.5 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2024 | Confederacy | 58.0 | 32.5 | 1,142 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2024 | Other South | 70.1 | 5.3 | 280 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2024 | Northeast | 52.5 | 17.7 | 217 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2024 | Midwest | 56.5 | 22.2 | 1,056 | n/a |
| Five regions | 2024 | West | 54.1 | 22.2 | 418 | n/a |
| Two groups | 2024 | Rest of US | 55.7 | 67.5 | 1,971 | n/a |

Views: Former Confederacy and the rest (grouping = Two groups); Five regions (grouping = Five regions).

Note: A region-year cell needs at least 30 counties; every cell meets that floor, so none is dropped.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/far_by_region.json

### Table 4. In 2024, 79.1% of counties were 20 or more points from the national margin, against 37.3% in 1976

County two-party margin minus the national two-party margin of the same election, percentage points (positive is more Democratic than the nation), seven presidential elections from 1876 to 2024

No inline rows: the values of Table 4 are in https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/the-landslide-county/county_margin_map.json.

Note: Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and joined on FIPS code. A county with no return, or whose code is absent from the 2020 map, draws as no data: not counting Alaska, 885 of the 3,113 counties on the map have no return in 1876 and 393 have none in 1904, and no other frame has more than 26, after retired county codes are mapped to their 2020 successors. None of the seven elections is a third-party year. The classes break at minus and plus 40, 20 and 5 points.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/county_margin_map.json

### Table 5. In 2024, 229 far Democratic and 2,234 far Republican counties each cast 28.2% of two-party votes

Counties at least 20 points more Democratic or more Republican than the national margin: share of two-party votes in the first view and count of counties in the second, 1976 and 2024

| Election | Side of the national margin | Far counties | Share of all counties (%) | Share of votes (%) | Counties in the election |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1876 | Far Democratic | 724 | 32.5 | 18.1 | 2,230 |
| 1876 | Far Republican | 533 | 23.9 | 20.0 | 2,230 |
| 1904 | Far Democratic | 1,117 | 41.0 | 22.0 | 2,723 |
| 1904 | Far Republican | 714 | 26.2 | 26.1 | 2,723 |
| 1940 | Far Democratic | 1,153 | 37.3 | 12.7 | 3,094 |
| 1940 | Far Republican | 774 | 25.0 | 20.6 | 3,094 |
| 1976 | Far Democratic | 704 | 22.6 | 13.2 | 3,113 |
| 1976 | Far Republican | 456 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 3,113 |
| 2000 | Far Democratic | 192 | 6.2 | 22.8 | 3,114 |
| 2000 | Far Republican | 1,472 | 47.3 | 22.5 | 3,114 |
| 2016 | Far Democratic | 224 | 7.2 | 27.8 | 3,113 |
| 2016 | Far Republican | 2,270 | 72.9 | 31.0 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Far Democratic | 229 | 7.4 | 28.2 | 3,113 |
| 2024 | Far Republican | 2,234 | 71.8 | 28.2 | 3,113 |

Views: Share of votes (shown = true); Number of counties (shown = true).

Note: Show data lists all seven map elections from 1876 to 2024. None of them is a third-party year.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/county_counts.json

### Table 6. The share of votes cast within 5 points of the national margin was 22.9% in 1976, 9.4% in 2016 and 14.7% in 2024

Share of two-party votes, or of counties in the second view, by bin of the county margin minus the national margin, percentage points, seven presidential elections from 1876 to 2024

| Election | Bin center (points) | Share of votes (%) | Share of counties (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1876 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| 1876 | −92.5 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| 1876 | −87.5 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| 1876 | −82.5 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| 1876 | −77.5 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| 1876 | −72.5 | 0.15 | 0.67 |
| 1876 | −67.5 | 0.21 | 0.63 |
| 1876 | −62.5 | 0.31 | 1.03 |
| 1876 | −57.5 | 0.68 | 1.21 |
| 1876 | −52.5 | 0.90 | 1.61 |
| 1876 | −47.5 | 1.07 | 1.84 |
| 1876 | −42.5 | 1.50 | 2.06 |
| 1876 | −37.5 | 1.85 | 2.15 |
| 1876 | −32.5 | 3.23 | 3.18 |
| 1876 | −27.5 | 3.46 | 3.54 |
| 1876 | −22.5 | 6.40 | 4.71 |
| 1876 | −17.5 | 6.52 | 4.08 |
| 1876 | −12.5 | 9.54 | 6.77 |
| 1876 | −7.5 | 8.26 | 5.34 |
| 1876 | −2.5 | 9.47 | 6.19 |
| 1876 | +2.5 | 8.61 | 5.70 |
| 1876 | +7.5 | 7.92 | 5.92 |
| 1876 | +12.5 | 5.22 | 5.47 |
| 1876 | +17.5 | 6.33 | 4.17 |
| 1876 | +22.5 | 2.81 | 3.72 |
| 1876 | +27.5 | 5.22 | 3.77 |
| 1876 | +32.5 | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| 1876 | +37.5 | 1.59 | 2.56 |
| 1876 | +42.5 | 1.28 | 2.42 |
| 1876 | +47.5 | 1.09 | 2.15 |
| 1876 | +52.5 | 1.03 | 2.29 |
| 1876 | +57.5 | 0.77 | 1.79 |
| 1876 | +62.5 | 0.49 | 1.61 |
| 1876 | +67.5 | 0.56 | 1.61 |
| 1876 | +72.5 | 0.48 | 1.52 |
| 1876 | +77.5 | 0.41 | 1.39 |
| 1876 | +82.5 | 0.32 | 1.12 |
| 1876 | +87.5 | 0.25 | 0.99 |
| 1876 | +92.5 | 0.24 | 1.17 |
| 1876 | +97.5 | 0.38 | 2.02 |
| 1904 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1904 | −92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1904 | −87.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1904 | −82.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1904 | −77.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1904 | −72.5 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| 1904 | −67.5 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| 1904 | −62.5 | 0.29 | 0.77 |
| 1904 | −57.5 | 0.33 | 0.92 |
| 1904 | −52.5 | 1.11 | 1.65 |
| 1904 | −47.5 | 4.01 | 2.90 |
| 1904 | −42.5 | 3.39 | 2.79 |
| 1904 | −37.5 | 2.91 | 3.56 |
| 1904 | −32.5 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| 1904 | −27.5 | 3.74 | 4.26 |
| 1904 | −22.5 | 6.49 | 5.07 |
| 1904 | −17.5 | 7.87 | 4.59 |
| 1904 | −12.5 | 8.31 | 4.85 |
| 1904 | −7.5 | 7.00 | 4.41 |
| 1904 | −2.5 | 5.60 | 3.78 |
| 1904 | +2.5 | 7.91 | 4.15 |
| 1904 | +7.5 | 4.86 | 3.97 |
| 1904 | +12.5 | 6.48 | 4.33 |
| 1904 | +17.5 | 3.87 | 2.68 |
| 1904 | +22.5 | 5.27 | 3.45 |
| 1904 | +27.5 | 5.46 | 2.83 |
| 1904 | +32.5 | 1.56 | 2.02 |
| 1904 | +37.5 | 1.17 | 2.13 |
| 1904 | +42.5 | 0.93 | 2.02 |
| 1904 | +47.5 | 0.62 | 1.62 |
| 1904 | +52.5 | 0.68 | 2.02 |
| 1904 | +57.5 | 0.60 | 1.58 |
| 1904 | +62.5 | 0.48 | 1.36 |
| 1904 | +67.5 | 0.52 | 2.13 |
| 1904 | +72.5 | 0.58 | 1.51 |
| 1904 | +77.5 | 0.59 | 2.17 |
| 1904 | +82.5 | 0.45 | 1.40 |
| 1904 | +87.5 | 0.34 | 1.58 |
| 1904 | +92.5 | 0.59 | 2.31 |
| 1904 | +97.5 | 0.42 | 2.13 |
| 1940 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1940 | −92.5 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| 1940 | −87.5 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| 1940 | −82.5 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 1940 | −77.5 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| 1940 | −72.5 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| 1940 | −67.5 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| 1940 | −62.5 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| 1940 | −57.5 | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| 1940 | −52.5 | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| 1940 | −47.5 | 1.38 | 1.97 |
| 1940 | −42.5 | 1.79 | 2.59 |
| 1940 | −37.5 | 3.11 | 3.56 |
| 1940 | −32.5 | 2.97 | 4.30 |
| 1940 | −27.5 | 4.25 | 4.56 |
| 1940 | −22.5 | 5.62 | 5.30 |
| 1940 | −17.5 | 6.37 | 6.24 |
| 1940 | −12.5 | 7.84 | 5.24 |
| 1940 | −7.5 | 6.11 | 5.79 |
| 1940 | −2.5 | 5.74 | 5.95 |
| 1940 | +2.5 | 12.08 | 4.27 |
| 1940 | +7.5 | 12.19 | 3.56 |
| 1940 | +12.5 | 10.70 | 3.68 |
| 1940 | +17.5 | 5.70 | 3.01 |
| 1940 | +22.5 | 2.84 | 2.71 |
| 1940 | +27.5 | 1.54 | 2.29 |
| 1940 | +32.5 | 0.69 | 1.78 |
| 1940 | +37.5 | 0.60 | 1.65 |
| 1940 | +42.5 | 0.84 | 2.07 |
| 1940 | +47.5 | 0.56 | 1.87 |
| 1940 | +52.5 | 0.70 | 1.68 |
| 1940 | +57.5 | 0.74 | 2.59 |
| 1940 | +62.5 | 1.01 | 3.01 |
| 1940 | +67.5 | 0.90 | 3.30 |
| 1940 | +72.5 | 0.69 | 3.30 |
| 1940 | +77.5 | 0.42 | 2.07 |
| 1940 | +82.5 | 0.49 | 3.56 |
| 1940 | +87.5 | 0.63 | 5.11 |
| 1940 | +92.5 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| 1940 | +97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −87.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −82.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −77.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −72.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −67.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | −62.5 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 1976 | −57.5 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 1976 | −52.5 | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| 1976 | −47.5 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| 1976 | −42.5 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| 1976 | −37.5 | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| 1976 | −32.5 | 1.67 | 2.51 |
| 1976 | −27.5 | 4.23 | 3.92 |
| 1976 | −22.5 | 4.56 | 5.20 |
| 1976 | −17.5 | 7.69 | 6.46 |
| 1976 | −12.5 | 10.28 | 8.96 |
| 1976 | −7.5 | 10.47 | 9.16 |
| 1976 | −2.5 | 12.84 | 9.83 |
| 1976 | +2.5 | 10.07 | 9.03 |
| 1976 | +7.5 | 9.22 | 7.55 |
| 1976 | +12.5 | 8.81 | 6.26 |
| 1976 | +17.5 | 5.09 | 5.49 |
| 1976 | +22.5 | 4.55 | 5.08 |
| 1976 | +27.5 | 1.72 | 4.02 |
| 1976 | +32.5 | 2.27 | 2.83 |
| 1976 | +37.5 | 1.77 | 2.54 |
| 1976 | +42.5 | 0.95 | 2.12 |
| 1976 | +47.5 | 1.10 | 2.15 |
| 1976 | +52.5 | 0.31 | 1.67 |
| 1976 | +57.5 | 0.16 | 1.03 |
| 1976 | +62.5 | 0.32 | 0.74 |
| 1976 | +67.5 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| 1976 | +72.5 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| 1976 | +77.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | +82.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | +87.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | +92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1976 | +97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | −92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | −87.5 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 2000 | −82.5 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| 2000 | −77.5 | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| 2000 | −72.5 | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| 2000 | −67.5 | 0.25 | 1.48 |
| 2000 | −62.5 | 0.25 | 1.77 |
| 2000 | −57.5 | 0.58 | 2.57 |
| 2000 | −52.5 | 0.95 | 3.47 |
| 2000 | −47.5 | 1.32 | 3.37 |
| 2000 | −42.5 | 1.75 | 4.40 |
| 2000 | −37.5 | 3.19 | 5.46 |
| 2000 | −32.5 | 3.52 | 7.06 |
| 2000 | −27.5 | 4.95 | 8.03 |
| 2000 | −22.5 | 5.50 | 8.48 |
| 2000 | −17.5 | 6.10 | 8.54 |
| 2000 | −12.5 | 7.99 | 8.35 |
| 2000 | −7.5 | 8.00 | 8.22 |
| 2000 | −2.5 | 8.83 | 6.52 |
| 2000 | +2.5 | 7.86 | 5.52 |
| 2000 | +7.5 | 6.60 | 4.34 |
| 2000 | +12.5 | 4.54 | 2.70 |
| 2000 | +17.5 | 4.80 | 2.38 |
| 2000 | +22.5 | 4.33 | 1.64 |
| 2000 | +27.5 | 5.06 | 1.51 |
| 2000 | +32.5 | 4.08 | 1.09 |
| 2000 | +37.5 | 1.65 | 0.55 |
| 2000 | +42.5 | 2.83 | 0.32 |
| 2000 | +47.5 | 0.89 | 0.29 |
| 2000 | +52.5 | 0.92 | 0.19 |
| 2000 | +57.5 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| 2000 | +62.5 | 1.12 | 0.26 |
| 2000 | +67.5 | 1.12 | 0.06 |
| 2000 | +72.5 | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| 2000 | +77.5 | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| 2000 | +82.5 | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| 2000 | +87.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | +92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2000 | +97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 2016 | −92.5 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2016 | −87.5 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| 2016 | −82.5 | 0.23 | 2.18 |
| 2016 | −77.5 | 0.36 | 3.28 |
| 2016 | −72.5 | 0.75 | 4.47 |
| 2016 | −67.5 | 1.14 | 5.56 |
| 2016 | −62.5 | 1.61 | 7.07 |
| 2016 | −57.5 | 2.81 | 8.67 |
| 2016 | −52.5 | 2.86 | 7.55 |
| 2016 | −47.5 | 2.65 | 6.68 |
| 2016 | −42.5 | 3.12 | 6.81 |
| 2016 | −37.5 | 3.43 | 5.75 |
| 2016 | −32.5 | 3.53 | 4.69 |
| 2016 | −27.5 | 4.20 | 5.14 |
| 2016 | −22.5 | 4.29 | 4.18 |
| 2016 | −17.5 | 4.19 | 4.24 |
| 2016 | −12.5 | 4.44 | 2.89 |
| 2016 | −7.5 | 3.94 | 2.83 |
| 2016 | −2.5 | 4.56 | 2.28 |
| 2016 | +2.5 | 4.83 | 2.12 |
| 2016 | +7.5 | 7.27 | 2.41 |
| 2016 | +12.5 | 5.92 | 1.54 |
| 2016 | +17.5 | 6.07 | 1.57 |
| 2016 | +22.5 | 3.26 | 1.32 |
| 2016 | +27.5 | 3.80 | 0.96 |
| 2016 | +32.5 | 2.71 | 1.03 |
| 2016 | +37.5 | 3.39 | 0.93 |
| 2016 | +42.5 | 1.70 | 0.74 |
| 2016 | +47.5 | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| 2016 | +52.5 | 6.34 | 0.45 |
| 2016 | +57.5 | 1.19 | 0.35 |
| 2016 | +62.5 | 1.68 | 0.32 |
| 2016 | +67.5 | 1.35 | 0.26 |
| 2016 | +72.5 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| 2016 | +77.5 | 1.22 | 0.16 |
| 2016 | +82.5 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| 2016 | +87.5 | 0.23 | 0.03 |
| 2016 | +92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | +97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | −97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | −92.5 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2024 | −87.5 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| 2024 | −82.5 | 0.08 | 1.03 |
| 2024 | −77.5 | 0.28 | 2.83 |
| 2024 | −72.5 | 0.59 | 4.40 |
| 2024 | −67.5 | 1.10 | 6.49 |
| 2024 | −62.5 | 1.51 | 8.06 |
| 2024 | −57.5 | 1.69 | 6.84 |
| 2024 | −52.5 | 2.37 | 7.61 |
| 2024 | −47.5 | 2.40 | 6.71 |
| 2024 | −42.5 | 2.99 | 6.75 |
| 2024 | −37.5 | 3.17 | 5.59 |
| 2024 | −32.5 | 4.02 | 5.69 |
| 2024 | −27.5 | 3.12 | 4.27 |
| 2024 | −22.5 | 4.90 | 5.04 |
| 2024 | −17.5 | 4.24 | 4.47 |
| 2024 | −12.5 | 4.62 | 3.05 |
| 2024 | −7.5 | 4.07 | 2.47 |
| 2024 | −2.5 | 8.27 | 3.02 |
| 2024 | +2.5 | 6.47 | 2.31 |
| 2024 | +7.5 | 3.56 | 1.73 |
| 2024 | +12.5 | 6.13 | 2.12 |
| 2024 | +17.5 | 6.17 | 1.70 |
| 2024 | +22.5 | 5.46 | 1.57 |
| 2024 | +27.5 | 3.95 | 1.12 |
| 2024 | +32.5 | 3.01 | 1.03 |
| 2024 | +37.5 | 3.59 | 0.77 |
| 2024 | +42.5 | 3.97 | 0.84 |
| 2024 | +47.5 | 2.44 | 0.58 |
| 2024 | +52.5 | 1.32 | 0.32 |
| 2024 | +57.5 | 1.54 | 0.35 |
| 2024 | +62.5 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| 2024 | +67.5 | 1.42 | 0.29 |
| 2024 | +72.5 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| 2024 | +77.5 | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| 2024 | +82.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | +87.5 | 0.21 | 0.03 |
| 2024 | +92.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | +97.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 |

Views: Share of votes; Share of counties.

Note: Bins run from minus 100 to plus 100 points. Counties beyond that range are not drawn. They matter mainly in 1904, when they hold 1.7% of votes and 8.8% of counties, all of them heavily Democratic counties in a year when the national margin was Republican.

Note: The share within 5 points does not depend on the bin width, because the two bins next to zero make it up.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/margin_distribution.json

### Table 7. In a fixed panel of counties the share rose 38.5 points from 1976 to 2024, against 31.0 for all counties

Share of two-party votes cast in counties at least 20 points from the national margin, percent, for all counties in each election and for a panel of 1,652 counties that report in every election from 1868, through 2024, with a second panel from 1872 in the second view

| Counties | Election | Share of votes in far counties (%) | Counties | Share of the election's votes in these counties (%) | Note |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| All counties | 1868 | 42.3 | 1,696 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1868 | 42.0 | 1,652 | 99.1 | n/a |
| All counties | 1872 | 50.8 | 2,160 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1872 | 50.1 | 1,652 | 90.8 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1872 | 50.5 | 2,068 | 98.3 | n/a |
| All counties | 1876 | 38.1 | 2,230 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1876 | 34.4 | 1,652 | 90.3 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1876 | 38.1 | 2,068 | 97.7 | n/a |
| All counties | 1880 | 38.1 | 2,291 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1880 | 33.0 | 1,652 | 89.4 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1880 | 37.4 | 2,068 | 96.3 | n/a |
| All counties | 1884 | 30.8 | 2,351 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1884 | 29.8 | 1,652 | 86.9 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1884 | 29.8 | 2,068 | 95.5 | n/a |
| All counties | 1888 | 29.9 | 2,429 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1888 | 27.3 | 1,652 | 86.7 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1888 | 28.8 | 2,068 | 94.7 | n/a |
| All counties | 1892 | 33.4 | 2,658 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1892 | 29.0 | 1,652 | 87.1 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1892 | 34.6 | 2,068 | 93.4 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1896 | 41.1 | 2,715 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1896 | 37.2 | 1,652 | 83.5 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1896 | 38.5 | 2,068 | 90.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 1900 | 32.9 | 2,711 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1900 | 28.4 | 1,652 | 83.4 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1900 | 31.0 | 2,068 | 89.7 | n/a |
| All counties | 1904 | 48.1 | 2,723 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1904 | 45.5 | 1,652 | 84.2 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1904 | 46.6 | 2,068 | 89.0 | n/a |
| All counties | 1908 | 32.9 | 2,856 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1908 | 28.9 | 1,652 | 81.3 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1908 | 32.4 | 2,068 | 86.3 | n/a |
| All counties | 1912 | 49.9 | 2,943 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1912 | 46.8 | 1,652 | 79.9 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1912 | 48.9 | 2,068 | 85.2 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1916 | 29.8 | 3,022 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1916 | 22.0 | 1,652 | 79.2 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1916 | 26.4 | 2,068 | 84.0 | n/a |
| All counties | 1920 | 44.0 | 3,054 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1920 | 43.2 | 1,652 | 81.3 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1920 | 44.2 | 2,068 | 85.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 1924 | 61.3 | 3,083 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1924 | 52.2 | 1,652 | 81.1 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1924 | 55.8 | 2,068 | 85.7 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1928 | 39.0 | 3,097 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1928 | 36.1 | 1,652 | 81.2 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1928 | 37.5 | 2,068 | 85.2 | n/a |
| All counties | 1932 | 40.9 | 3,096 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1932 | 37.2 | 1,652 | 80.2 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1932 | 38.6 | 2,068 | 84.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 1936 | 39.2 | 3,095 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1936 | 34.6 | 1,652 | 81.1 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1936 | 36.6 | 2,068 | 84.9 | n/a |
| All counties | 1940 | 33.3 | 3,094 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1940 | 28.9 | 1,652 | 80.4 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1940 | 29.9 | 2,068 | 84.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 1944 | 33.9 | 3,095 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1944 | 33.1 | 1,652 | 81.3 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1944 | 33.3 | 2,068 | 85.1 | n/a |
| All counties | 1948 | 28.6 | 3,096 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1948 | 25.6 | 1,652 | 80.7 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1948 | 27.2 | 2,068 | 84.4 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1952 | 36.8 | 3,098 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1952 | 34.6 | 1,652 | 78.7 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1952 | 33.4 | 2,068 | 83.6 | n/a |
| All counties | 1956 | 32.5 | 3,100 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1956 | 33.4 | 1,652 | 78.9 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1956 | 33.0 | 2,068 | 83.6 | n/a |
| All counties | 1960 | 32.8 | 3,105 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1960 | 31.6 | 1,652 | 78.1 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1960 | 32.1 | 2,068 | 83.0 | n/a |
| All counties | 1964 | 32.5 | 3,107 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1964 | 29.1 | 1,652 | 76.3 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1964 | 31.1 | 2,068 | 82.0 | n/a |
| All counties | 1968 | 37.2 | 3,111 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1968 | 35.4 | 1,652 | 76.3 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1968 | 36.2 | 2,068 | 81.8 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1972 | 31.6 | 3,110 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1972 | 30.0 | 1,652 | 74.0 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1972 | 30.9 | 2,068 | 80.8 | n/a |
| All counties | 1976 | 25.5 | 3,113 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1976 | 22.0 | 1,652 | 72.4 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1976 | 22.5 | 2,068 | 79.9 | n/a |
| All counties | 1980 | 33.8 | 3,112 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1980 | 30.8 | 1,652 | 70.8 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1980 | 30.3 | 2,068 | 79.1 | n/a |
| All counties | 1984 | 35.9 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1984 | 31.4 | 1,652 | 70.1 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1984 | 30.0 | 2,068 | 78.6 | n/a |
| All counties | 1988 | 35.8 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 1988 | 32.4 | 1,652 | 69.6 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 1988 | 32.1 | 2,068 | 78.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 1992 | 38.6 | 3,115 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1992 | 33.5 | 1,652 | 69.5 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1992 | 37.5 | 2,068 | 78.5 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1996 | 37.9 | 3,114 | 100.0 | Third-party year |
| 1868 panel | 1996 | 37.4 | 1,652 | 68.2 | Third-party year |
| 1872 panel | 1996 | 39.4 | 2,068 | 77.5 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 2000 | 45.3 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2000 | 44.2 | 1,652 | 67.8 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2000 | 45.1 | 2,068 | 77.4 | n/a |
| All counties | 2004 | 46.9 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2004 | 48.0 | 1,652 | 67.1 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2004 | 47.0 | 2,068 | 76.9 | n/a |
| All counties | 2008 | 47.3 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2008 | 48.5 | 1,652 | 66.4 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2008 | 47.7 | 2,068 | 76.7 | n/a |
| All counties | 2012 | 50.5 | 3,114 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2012 | 50.7 | 1,652 | 65.8 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2012 | 51.8 | 2,068 | 76.2 | n/a |
| All counties | 2016 | 58.8 | 3,113 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2016 | 60.3 | 1,652 | 65.2 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2016 | 61.2 | 2,068 | 76.0 | n/a |
| All counties | 2020 | 56.6 | 3,113 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2020 | 59.4 | 1,652 | 64.0 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2020 | 60.4 | 2,068 | 74.9 | n/a |
| All counties | 2024 | 56.5 | 3,113 | 100.0 | n/a |
| 1868 panel | 2024 | 60.5 | 1,652 | 63.5 | n/a |
| 1872 panel | 2024 | 61.0 | 2,068 | 74.7 | n/a |

Views: Panel from 1868 (main = true); Adding the panel from 1872.

Note: A panel keeps the counties with a positive two-party vote in every election from its first year. The panel from 1868 lacks every state admitted after 1868 and every county created later; the panel from 1872 keeps Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia and lacks the later ones.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/fixed_panel.json

### Table 8. The spread of state margins around the national margin rose from 9.4 points in 1976 to 17.2 in 2024

Vote-weighted standard deviation of two-party margins, percentage points: county margins around the national margin, state margins around the national margin, and county margins around their own state's margin, 1868 to 2024

| Measure | Election | Standard deviation (points) | Units | Note |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| All counties | 1868 | 30.6 | 1,696 | n/a |
| Between states | 1868 | 18.3 | 33 | n/a |
| Within states | 1868 | 24.6 | 1,696 | n/a |
| All counties | 1872 | 34.4 | 2,160 | n/a |
| Between states | 1872 | 21.1 | 37 | n/a |
| Within states | 1872 | 27.2 | 2,160 | n/a |
| All counties | 1876 | 26.8 | 2,230 | n/a |
| Between states | 1876 | 15.2 | 37 | n/a |
| Within states | 1876 | 22.1 | 2,230 | n/a |
| All counties | 1880 | 26.8 | 2,291 | n/a |
| Between states | 1880 | 16.5 | 38 | n/a |
| Within states | 1880 | 21.1 | 2,291 | n/a |
| All counties | 1884 | 24.3 | 2,351 | n/a |
| Between states | 1884 | 14.1 | 38 | n/a |
| Within states | 1884 | 19.8 | 2,351 | n/a |
| All counties | 1888 | 24.5 | 2,429 | n/a |
| Between states | 1888 | 15.9 | 38 | n/a |
| Within states | 1888 | 18.7 | 2,429 | n/a |
| All counties | 1892 | 30.9 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1892 | 25.5 | 44 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1892 | 17.4 | 2,658 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1896 | 33.0 | 2,715 | n/a |
| Between states | 1896 | 27.6 | 45 | n/a |
| Within states | 1896 | 18.1 | 2,715 | n/a |
| All counties | 1900 | 25.3 | 2,711 | n/a |
| Between states | 1900 | 17.9 | 45 | n/a |
| Within states | 1900 | 17.9 | 2,711 | n/a |
| All counties | 1904 | 32.4 | 2,723 | n/a |
| Between states | 1904 | 26.4 | 45 | n/a |
| Within states | 1904 | 18.9 | 2,723 | n/a |
| All counties | 1908 | 26.1 | 2,856 | n/a |
| Between states | 1908 | 20.0 | 46 | n/a |
| Within states | 1908 | 16.8 | 2,856 | n/a |
| All counties | 1912 | 30.6 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1912 | 23.5 | 47 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1912 | 19.7 | 2,943 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1916 | 25.3 | 3,022 | n/a |
| Between states | 1916 | 19.6 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1916 | 16.0 | 3,022 | n/a |
| All counties | 1920 | 29.8 | 3,054 | n/a |
| Between states | 1920 | 24.7 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1920 | 16.7 | 3,054 | n/a |
| All counties | 1924 | 37.0 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1924 | 31.8 | 48 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1924 | 18.8 | 3,083 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1928 | 25.6 | 3,097 | n/a |
| Between states | 1928 | 15.9 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1928 | 20.0 | 3,097 | n/a |
| All counties | 1932 | 26.4 | 3,096 | n/a |
| Between states | 1932 | 19.5 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1932 | 17.7 | 3,096 | n/a |
| All counties | 1936 | 24.9 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Between states | 1936 | 15.7 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1936 | 19.4 | 3,095 | n/a |
| All counties | 1940 | 25.8 | 3,094 | n/a |
| Between states | 1940 | 18.2 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1940 | 18.3 | 3,094 | n/a |
| All counties | 1944 | 25.1 | 3,095 | n/a |
| Between states | 1944 | 16.8 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1944 | 18.7 | 3,095 | n/a |
| All counties | 1948 | 22.6 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1948 | 12.9 | 48 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1948 | 18.6 | 3,096 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1952 | 22.5 | 3,098 | n/a |
| Between states | 1952 | 12.6 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1952 | 18.7 | 3,098 | n/a |
| All counties | 1956 | 21.4 | 3,100 | n/a |
| Between states | 1956 | 10.9 | 48 | n/a |
| Within states | 1956 | 18.4 | 3,100 | n/a |
| All counties | 1960 | 20.9 | 3,105 | n/a |
| Between states | 1960 | 8.8 | 49 | n/a |
| Within states | 1960 | 19.0 | 3,105 | n/a |
| All counties | 1964 | 22.2 | 3,107 | n/a |
| Between states | 1964 | 16.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1964 | 14.9 | 3,107 | n/a |
| All counties | 1968 | 23.3 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1968 | 13.6 | 50 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1968 | 18.9 | 3,111 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1972 | 20.5 | 3,110 | n/a |
| Between states | 1972 | 13.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1972 | 15.5 | 3,110 | n/a |
| All counties | 1976 | 18.4 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Between states | 1976 | 9.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1976 | 15.7 | 3,113 | n/a |
| All counties | 1980 | 20.9 | 3,112 | n/a |
| Between states | 1980 | 11.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1980 | 17.5 | 3,112 | n/a |
| All counties | 1984 | 21.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 1984 | 10.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1984 | 19.0 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 1988 | 21.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 1988 | 10.3 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 1988 | 18.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 1992 | 22.1 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1992 | 10.9 | 50 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1992 | 19.2 | 3,115 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 1996 | 23.6 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| Between states | 1996 | 13.1 | 50 | Third-party year |
| Within states | 1996 | 19.6 | 3,114 | Third-party year |
| All counties | 2000 | 26.5 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 2000 | 15.5 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2000 | 21.5 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 2004 | 27.3 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 2004 | 14.9 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2004 | 23.0 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 2008 | 28.8 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 2008 | 16.2 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2008 | 23.8 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 2012 | 31.1 | 3,114 | n/a |
| Between states | 2012 | 17.4 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2012 | 25.7 | 3,114 | n/a |
| All counties | 2016 | 35.9 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Between states | 2016 | 19.3 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2016 | 30.3 | 3,113 | n/a |
| All counties | 2020 | 34.0 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Between states | 2020 | 18.3 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2020 | 28.6 | 3,113 | n/a |
| All counties | 2024 | 32.7 | 3,113 | n/a |
| Between states | 2024 | 17.2 | 50 | n/a |
| Within states | 2024 | 27.9 | 3,113 | n/a |

Note: States are the states and the District of Columbia with returns in the election; a state's margin is its summed two-party margin. The number of states is 33 in 1868, when four Confederate states have no returns, and 50 in both 1976 and 2024, so the between-state series compares the same units in those two elections. The within-state series is measured on counties. The 1872 values rest on Reconstruction-era returns.

Source: County presidential returns, 1868-2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868-2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024); full counts, not survey estimates; shares weighted by two-party votes unless stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/states_and_counties.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (160), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| all_fall_2016_2024 | 2.3 | percentage points of the share of votes | fall in the share of votes cast in far counties, all counties | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| all_rise_1976_2024 | 31.0 | percentage points of the share of votes | rise in the share of votes cast in far counties, all counties | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 against 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| band | 5 | percentage points of two-party margin | distance from the national margin that makes a county near | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| big_step_cut | 7 | percentage points of the share of votes | size of a large step | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| bin_alt | 10 | percentage points of two-party margin | a wider bin of the county margin relative to the national margin, used to test the height of the ridges | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| bin_width | 5 | percentage points of two-party margin | width of a bin of the county margin relative to the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| chg_1980 | +8.3 | percentage points of the share of votes | change in the share of votes cast in far counties from the previous election | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1980 against 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| chg_2000 | +7.4 | percentage points of the share of votes | change in the share of votes cast in far counties from the previous election | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2000 against 1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| chg_2016 | +8.3 | percentage points of the share of votes | change in the share of votes cast in far counties from the previous election | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 against 2012 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| chg_other_max | 3.2 | percentage points of the share of votes | largest absolute change in the share from the previous election among the other elections since 1976 | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1984-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| confed_c_1976 | 50.7% | percent of counties | share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_contrib_1904 | 18.4% | percent of votes cast in far counties | share of the nation's votes in far counties that were cast in the former Confederacy | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_contrib_2024 | 33.4% | percent of votes cast in far counties | share of the nation's votes in far counties that were cast in the former Confederacy | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_dem_far_1904 | 83.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 1,000 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_dem_far_1940 | 82.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1940 |   | 1,132 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_dem_far_2024 | 16.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,142 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_1904 | 86.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 1,000 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_1924 | 94.1% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 1,126 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_1928 | 52.9% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1928 |   | 1,134 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_1976 | 29.6% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 1,145 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_1980 | 29.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1980 |   | 1,145 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_2016 | 65.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 1,142 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_2024 | 58.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,142 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_hi_1976_96 | 35.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest share of the region's votes cast in far counties over the six elections | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1976-1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_lo_1976_96 | 29.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest share of the region's votes cast in far counties over the six elections | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1976-1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_far_min | 67.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest share of the region's votes cast in far counties | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1892-1944 except 1928 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_rep_far_2024 | 41.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Republican than the nation | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,142 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_vote_1904 | 10.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the nation's two-party votes cast in the former Confederacy | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| confed_vote_2024 | 32.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the nation's two-party votes cast in the former Confederacy | counties in the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| corr_abs_margin | −0.07 | correlation coefficient | correlation across elections between the absolute national two-party margin and the share of votes cast in far counties | the 33 elections that are not third-party years | 1868-2024 | 95% CI −0.40 to 0.28 | 33 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Pearson correlation; the interval is a Fisher z interval that treats the elections as independent, and adjacent elections are not independent. |
| corr_from2000 | −0.12 | correlation coefficient | correlation across elections between the absolute national two-party margin and the share of votes cast in far counties | the 7 elections from 2000 to 2024 (none is a third-party year) | 2000-2024 | 95% CI −0.80 to 0.70 | 7 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Pearson correlation; the interval is a Fisher z interval that treats the elections as independent, and adjacent elections are not independent. |
| corr_pre2000 | +0.42 | correlation coefficient | correlation across elections between the absolute national two-party margin and the share of votes cast in far counties | the 26 elections from 1868 to 1996 that are not third-party years | 1868-1996 | 95% CI 0.04 to 0.70 | 26 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Pearson correlation; the interval is a Fisher z interval that treats the elections as independent, and adjacent elections are not independent. |
| cov_panel72_2024 | 74.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the election's two-party votes cast in the larger fixed panel | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 39 elections from 1872, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 2,068 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cov_panel_1868 | 99.1% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the election's two-party votes cast in the fixed panel | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1868 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cov_panel_2024 | 63.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the election's two-party votes cast in the fixed panel | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cut | 20 | percentage points of two-party margin | distance from the national margin that makes a county far | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cut_15 | 15 | percentage points of two-party margin | alternative distance from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cut_25 | 25 | percentage points of two-party margin | alternative distance from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cut_30 | 30 | percentage points of two-party margin | alternative distance from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| cut_very | 40 | percentage points of two-party margin | distance from the national margin that makes a county very far | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| dist_lim | 100 | percentage points of two-party margin | distance from the national margin beyond which a county is not drawn | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| fall_max | 0.7 | percentage points of the share of votes | largest fall in the share from the previous election between 1976 and 2016 | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1980-2016 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| far15_v_1916 | 37.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 15 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1916 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far15_v_1976 | 38.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 15 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_c_1976 | 37.3% | percent of counties | share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_c_1988 | 35.8% | percent of counties | share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1988 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_c_2024 | 79.1% | percent of counties | share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_dem_c_1976 | 704 | counties | count of counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_dem_c_2024 | 229 | counties | count of counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_dem_v_1976 | 13.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_dem_v_2024 | 28.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Democratic than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_rep_c_1976 | 456 | counties | count of counties 20 or more points more Republican than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_rep_c_2024 | 2,234 | counties | count of counties 20 or more points more Republican than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_rep_v_1976 | 12.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Republican than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_rep_v_2024 | 28.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points more Republican than the nation | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_size_ratio_2024 | 9.8 | ratio of mean two-party votes per county | mean two-party votes in a county at least 20 points more Democratic than the nation over the mean in a county at least 20 points more Republican | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1868 | 42.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868 |   | 1,696 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1872 | 50.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1872 |   | 2,160 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1904 | 48.1% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 2,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1924 | 61.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 3,083 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1972 | 31.6% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 |   | 3,110 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1976 | 25.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_1984 | 35.9% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1984 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_2016 | 58.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_2020 | 56.6% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2020 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| far_v_2024 | 56.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| gap_2024_mid_hi | 15.6 | percentage points of the share of votes | share of votes cast in far counties in 2024 minus the highest share among the elections from 1928 to 1972 that are not third-party years | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 against 1928-1972 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| mark50 | 50% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of a region's votes that marks a majority | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| med_abs_1976 | 14.4 | points of two-party margin | median over counties of the absolute county two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation; each county counts once. |
| med_abs_2024 | 43.9 | points of two-party margin | median over counties of the absolute county two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation; each county counts once. |
| mid_hi | 40.9% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest share of votes cast in far counties | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1928-1972 except third-party years |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| mid_lo | 31.6% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest share of votes cast in far counties | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1928-1972 except third-party years |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_big_steps | 3 | presidential elections | count of elections that raised the share by more than 7 points | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_close_1976 | 591 | counties | count of counties whose own margin is within 5 points of an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| n_close_2024 | 155 | counties | count of counties whose own margin is within 5 points of an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| n_counties_1868 | 1,696 | counties | count of counties with two-party returns | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_counties_1976 | 3,113 | counties | count of counties with two-party returns | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_counties_2024 | 3,113 | counties | count of counties with two-party returns | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_elections | 40 | presidential elections | count of elections | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_far_c_2024 | 2,463 | counties | count of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_from2000 | 7 | presidential elections | count of elections from 2000 that are not third-party years | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2000-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_map_units | 3,113 | counties | count of counties drawn on the map, Alaska excluded | counties on the 2020 map, Alaska excluded | 2020 boundaries |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_panel | 1,652 | counties | count of counties in the fixed panel | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_panel72 | 2,068 | counties | count of counties in the larger fixed panel | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 39 elections from 1872, Alaska excluded | 1872-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_pre2000 | 26 | presidential elections | count of elections through 1996 that are not third-party years | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_rise | 10 | presidential elections | count of elections between the 1976 low and the 2016 high | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976-2016 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_states_1868 | 33 | states and the District of Columbia | count of states and DC with two-party returns | states and DC with returns in the election, Alaska excluded | 1868 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_states_1976 | 50 | states and the District of Columbia | count of states and DC with two-party returns | states and DC with returns in the election, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_unflagged | 33 | presidential elections | count of elections that are not third-party years | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nat_margin_1904 | 19.9 | points of Republican lead in the two-party margin | absolute national two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 2,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nat_margin_1972 | 23.6 | points of Republican lead in the two-party margin | absolute national two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nat_margin_1984 | 18.3 | points of Republican lead in the two-party margin | absolute national two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1984 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nat_margin_2020 | 4.6 | points of Democratic lead in the two-party margin | absolute national two-party margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2020 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_c_1976 | 18.9% | percent of counties | share of counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_c_2016 | 4.4% | percent of counties | share of counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_c_2024 | 5.3% | percent of counties | share of counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_v_1904 | 13.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 2,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_v_1976 | 22.9% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_v_2016 | 9.4% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| near5_v_2024 | 14.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties within 5 points of the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nodata_1876 | 885 | counties | count of map counties with no return, drawn as no data | counties on the 2020 map, Alaska excluded | 1876 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nodata_1904 | 393 | counties | count of map counties with no return, drawn as no data | counties on the 2020 map, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| nodata_other_max | 26 | counties | largest count of map counties with no return among the other five frames | counties on the 2020 map, Alaska excluded | 1940, 1976, 2000, 2016 and 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| north_max_1904 | 46.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| north_min_1904 | 37.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| other_c_max_1976 | 45.7% | percent of counties | highest regional share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the four other regions, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan72_far_1976 | 22.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 39 elections from 1872, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 2,068 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan72_far_2024 | 61.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 39 elections from 1872, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 2,068 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_chg_2016_2024 | +0.2 | percentage points of the share of votes | change in the share of the panel's votes cast in far counties | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| pan_far_1868 | 42.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1868 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_1904 | 45.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_1916 | 22.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1916 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_1976 | 22.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_2016 | 60.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_2020 | 59.4% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2020 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_2024 | 60.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the panel's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the panel's own margin | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_far_max_before_2016 | 52.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest share of the panel's votes cast in far counties before 2016 | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 1868-2012 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| pan_rise_1976_2024 | 38.5 | percentage points of the share of votes | rise in the share of the panel's votes cast in far counties | the fixed panel of counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections, Alaska excluded | 2024 against 1976 |   | 1,652 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| raw20_v_1972 | 59.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is 20 or more points from an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1972 |   | 3,110 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| raw20_v_1976 | 26.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is 20 or more points from an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| raw20_v_2004 | 48.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is 20 or more points from an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2004 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| raw5_v_1976 | 23.4% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is within 5 points of an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| raw5_v_2024 | 13.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties whose own margin is within 5 points of an even split | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns | Raw basis: the county's own margin, not its margin relative to the nation. |
| reg_c_max_2024 | 91.8% | percent of counties | highest regional share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| reg_c_min_2024 | 53.9% | percent of counties | lowest regional share of counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| reg_max_1976 | 31.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| reg_max_2024 | 70.1% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| reg_min_1976 | 18.8% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| reg_min_2024 | 52.5% | percent of the election's two-party votes | lowest regional share of votes cast in far counties | counties in the region, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rest_far_1904 | 43.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 1,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rest_far_1976 | 24.3% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 1,968 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rest_far_1980 | 35.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excluded | 1980 |   | 1,967 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rest_far_2024 | 55.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of the region's two-party votes cast in counties 20 or more points from the national margin | counties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 1,971 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rest_far_max | 49.0% | percent of the election's two-party votes | highest share of the region's votes cast in far counties | counties outside the former Confederacy, Alaska excluded | 1868-2012 except third-party years |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| rise_1976_2016 | 33.3 | percentage points of the share of votes | rise in the share of votes cast in far counties | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 against 1976 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded shares. |
| sd_all_1976 | 18.4 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_all_2024 | 32.7 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_between_1904 | 26.4 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of state margins around the national margin | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 45 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_between_1924 | 31.8 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of state margins around the national margin | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 48 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_between_1976 | 9.4 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of state margins around the national margin | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 50 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_between_2024 | 17.2 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of state margins around the national margin | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 50 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_between_gap | 0.7 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | lowest spread of state margins from 1892 to 1924 minus the spread in 2024 | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 2024 against 1892-1924 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded values. |
| sd_between_min | 17.9 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | lowest vote-weighted standard deviation of state margins around the national margin | states and DC, Alaska excluded | 1892-1924 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_1904 | 18.9 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 2,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_1924 | 18.8 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 3,083 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_1976 | 15.7 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_2016 | 30.3 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_2024 | 27.9 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| sd_within_gap | 0.7 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | spread of county margins around their own state's margin in 2024 minus the highest value before 2000 | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 against 1868-1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | Difference of the two rounded values. |
| sd_within_prior_max | 27.2 | percentage points of two-party margin (standard deviation) | highest vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around their own state's margin before 2000 | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-1996 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| tail_counties_1904 | 8.8% | percent of counties | share of counties more than 100 points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| tail_votes_1904 | 1.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of votes in counties more than 100 points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| third_cut | 10% | percent of all votes cast | cutoff for a strong third-party vote | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1868-2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| very_v_1924 | 24.1% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 40 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 3,083 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| very_v_1976 | 3.7% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 40 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1976 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| very_v_2016 | 30.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 40 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| very_v_2024 | 25.2% | percent of the election's two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in counties 40 or more points from the national margin | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| within_share_1904 | 33.9% | percent of the variance of county margins around the nation | share of the vote-weighted variance of county margins that lies within states | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1904 |   | 2,723 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| within_share_1924 | 25.8% | percent of the variance of county margins around the nation | share of the vote-weighted variance of county margins that lies within states | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 1924 |   | 3,083 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| within_share_2024 | 72.4% | percent of the variance of county margins around the nation | share of the vote-weighted variance of county margins that lies within states | counties with two-party returns, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,113 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |

## Definitions

- County two-party margin: The Democratic vote minus the Republican vote, divided by the sum of the two, so a positive value is a Democratic lead. Votes for other candidates are left out.
- Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
- Standard deviation: A measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out.
- Party sorting: The alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits.
- Ecological inference: Drawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.

## Methods

Sample: county presidential returns for the 40 elections from 1868 to 2024 (Algara and Amlani for 1868 to 2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), from the repaired file whose 2024 totals are corrected for 173 counties in South Carolina, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The county handling is that of chapter 10.1: 41 Alaska rows are dropped (Alaska reports election districts and has no returns before 2024), then 50 rows with no FIPS code (defunct counties), 88 rows with no vote count, 53 more rows with two-party votes but no total (chapter 10.1 drops them too; keeping them changes no share by more than 0.2 points) and 74 rows with no two-party votes. A year holds 1,696 to 3,115 counties. Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized. The District of Columbia enters in 1964, and the 1868 returns lack Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Virginia, so the 1868 values are not on the same set of states as those of 1872. Estimand: the two-party margin is 100 times the Democratic minus the Republican votes over their sum; the national margin is the same quantity on the summed votes of the kept counties; a county's relative margin is its margin minus the national margin of the same election; a county is far when the absolute relative margin is at least 20 points and very far at 40 points. The headline is the share of the election's two-party votes cast in far counties, with a second version that counts each county once. The raw version compares the county's own margin with an even split. Weights: none from a survey, because the returns are full counts; shares of votes weight each county by its two-party votes. Third-party years: elections in which candidates outside the two major-party nominees won at least 10% of all votes (1892, 1912, 1924, 1968, 1992, 1996) and 1948, when a States' Rights ticket won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina; they are shaded in the figures and not removed. In Alabama in 1948 the returns file records the States' Rights ticket, which held the Democratic line because Truman was not on the ballot, as the Democratic vote, so those votes are in the two-party margin, and the state's total in the file counts them again. Regions: the former Confederacy (AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA), Other South (DE, DC, KY, MD, OK, WV), Northeast (CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT), Midwest (IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI) and West (the rest, without Alaska); the two South groups make up the Census South of chapter 10.1. Robustness: a fixed panel of 1,652 counties with a positive two-party vote in all 40 elections and a panel of 2,068 counties from 1872, each measured against its own summed margin; the vote-weighted standard deviation of county margins around the national margin, split into the standard deviation of state margins around the national margin and of county margins around their own state's margin (the variances add); cutoffs of 15, 25 and 30 points in place of 20. Distribution: shares of votes and of counties in bins of 5 points of relative margin from minus 100 to plus 100. Map: each county's margin minus the national margin is rounded to one decimal place, and a county whose rounded value would fall in another class of the map keeps the fewest further decimals that leave it in the class of its unrounded margin, so the classes count the counties named in the title; the classes break at minus and plus 40, 20 and 5 points. Correlations: Pearson correlations across elections between the absolute national margin and the share of votes cast in far counties, over the 33 elections that are not third-party years, the 26 of them through 1996 and the 7 from 2000. Interval method: none for shares, counts and spreads; a full count has no sampling error, so no confidence interval is reported, and differences between measures come from definitions and the county set, not from chance. The three correlations carry 95% Fisher z intervals that treat the elections as independent, which adjacent elections are not, so the intervals are narrower than they should be. Suppression: a region-year cell needs at least 30 counties, and every cell meets that floor.

## What these data cannot show

- Returns record where votes were cast.
- A county far from the national margin can contain voters of both parties in large numbers, and returns cannot tell voters who changed their choice from people who started or stopped voting or moved in or out, a limit known as ecological inference.
- Returns also count votes cast and not residents.
- Where the franchise was restricted, as in the former Confederacy for much of the period before the Voting Rights Act, the shares for the region describe the electorate that voted and not the adult population.
- Southern returns from the Reconstruction years were collected under contested counts and political violence that the returns do not record.
- The two-party margin leaves out the third-party votes in the third-party years, and it cannot say where those voters would have gone.
- Counties are as reported in each election and their boundaries are not harmonized, so the fixed panels and the state comparison reduce the concern about unit size and do not remove it.
- The panels cover 63.5% and 74.7% of the 2024 votes and are not a sample of the country.
- The chapter measures how far counties sit from the nation in each election.
- It does not say what a far county is like, how competitive its own contests are, or whether the far counties of 2024 differ from those of 1904 in the kinds of people who live in them.
- The series ends with 2024 and makes no forecast.
- The share for all counties rose from 1976 to 2016 and has not risen since.
- The returns cannot say whether the plateau will hold.

## References

1. Amlani, Sharif; Algara, Carlos (2021). Partisanship & Nationalization in American Elections: Evidence from Presidential, Senatorial, & Gubernatorial Elections in the U.S. Counties, 1872-2020. Electoral Studies 73: 102387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102387
2. Key, V. O., Jr., with the assistance of Alexander Heard (1949). Southern Politics in State and Nation. Alfred A. Knopf.
3. Hopkins, Daniel J. (2018). The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. University of Chicago Press.
4. Rodden, Jonathan A. (2019). Why Cities Lose: The Deep Roots of the Urban-Rural Political Divide. Basic Books.
5. Bishop, Bill, with Robert G. Cushing (2008). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart. Houghton Mifflin.
6. Abrams, Samuel J.; Fiorina, Morris P. (2012). “The Big Sort” That Wasn’t: A Skeptical Reexamination. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(2): 203-210. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000017

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/the-landslide-county/build.py (sha256 66fe27dd4140f86d20c0eb2a96e17b034b7f68359fd3bc815fd6e17d9e9e14a6)
- Built on: 2026-09-30
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet | 6,295,675 | bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f | b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 90c1469f140b8c5aee48e8089f092252d4becb8478257ca356be0d71c2409f9e |
| figures/county_counts.json | 3729c0ecb6f4ce10a7d27ca531519bc8643b8f638924af27f809b906331a1243 |
| figures/county_margin_map.json | aca94ff8228f0c36785138025ca0fdd08cac52a753fea78bd0098aff621188a9 |
| figures/far_by_region.json | f64edef1158c4bc97e1511c5b3a7597ae38222c1d088b62ae518d5bc82fb033f |
| figures/far_share.json | d7e4918fda6923a5001f7f38a70b8575ce35016b3998d84a8d18bb5f2ff46a37 |
| figures/fixed_panel.json | 8a9c5cec4c962199a6cbd688653b0ca39af0620fd256e20ecef14e4820272aa5 |
| figures/margin_distribution.json | a081d20520413fac757a0f0f7febb77737897ad3bf8b697590049058975a3d3a |
| figures/states_and_counties.json | 51fc58b9d77fa26d54e60b4615ab8cdf4a4b630f68fea6d17fedd9a604942124 |
| figures/step_changes.json | 4608cd901bb56a6753ea93f6f5ed9fa5b3fd261a93567982763d7bf7d7d59e54 |
| meta.json | 5a49ba1aa7c6a38ecc185a7615baff6fb064ae2e3979ec8b9358c37ed13a74c5 |
| public/data/the-landslide-county/county_margin_map.json | 5113ca666ebcca37db1bfaf01158f408cf7853c92e404a5c9edc53a504cee801 |
| refs.json | 4a329e24f6775c11c567d41dab94baa819a2ec2b2cc011a3e6d1cdfdaddc3199 |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-landslide-county/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "far_share" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/far_share.json
- Table 2, figure "step_changes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/step_changes.json
- Table 3, figure "far_by_region" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/far_by_region.json
- Table 4, figure "county_margin_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/county_margin_map.json
- Table 5, figure "county_counts" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/county_counts.json
- Table 6, figure "margin_distribution" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/margin_distribution.json
- Table 7, figure "fixed_panel" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/fixed_panel.json
- Table 8, figure "states_and_counties" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-landslide-county/figures/states_and_counties.json
- Payload of "county_margin_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/the-landslide-county/county_margin_map.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt