# The diploma map: report

Companion 8.1a of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: The diploma map
- Chapter: Companion 8.1a (Part VIII, Places and the people in them; Votes, giving and places)
- Question: How large is the county education gap in the vote, and when did it open?
- Dek: Counting counties by their votes, a county with 10 more points of college share had a Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote 9.2 points higher in 2024, against 3.9 points in 2000.
- Grain: places
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-10-03
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - County election returns. County presidential returns, 1972-2024 (2000-2024 for the estimates; 1972-1996 for the 2000-ranking check): Algara and Amlani (to 2020) and MIT Election Data and Science Lab (2024), repaired file; years: President 1868-2024 (40 elections); House and Senate 1990-2024; weights: none (full counts of votes); estimates weighted by two-party votes in the election, or county-equal
  - County demographics panel. County demographics panel, 2000-2024: share of residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, and non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares; years: 2000-2024 (election years, interpolated between census and survey anchors); weights: none (census and American Community Survey estimates, interpolated to election years; sampling error not carried)
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026thediplomamap

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026thediplomamap,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {The diploma map},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 3 October 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| definition of the slope unit | unit of the slope | 2000 to 2024 | 10 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel | x_unit |
| slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 9.2 | 95% CI 8.4 to 10.1 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | slope_w_2024 |
| slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 3.9 | 95% CI 2.5 to 5.1 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | slope_w_2000 |
| change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | 0.0 | 95% CI −0.4 to 0.4 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | step_w_1624 |
| lowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | +0.4 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | adj_step_min_w |
| highest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | +1.1 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | adj_step_max_w |
| lower age limit of the college share | residents counted in the college share | 2000 to 2024 | 25 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel | age_floor |
| correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | +0.66 | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.71 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | corr_w_2024 |
| correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | +0.56 | 95% CI 0.45 to 0.66 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | corr_u_2024 |
| correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | +0.28 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.37 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | corr_w_2000 |
| correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | +0.10 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.20 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | corr_u_2000 |
| count of elections | elections with county college share | 2000 to 2024 | 7 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel | n_years |
| count of counties in the estimates | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 3,114 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_counties_2000 |
| count of counties in the estimates | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 3,103 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_counties_2024 |
| count of states, not counting the District of Columbia | states with counties in these data, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 49 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | n_states_only |
| number of bootstrap replicates | bootstrap over states | 2000 to 2024 | 2,000 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns | boot_reps |

## Findings

In 2024, a county with 10 more points of college share, the share of its residents with a bachelor's degree, had a Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote 9.2 (95% CI 8.4 to 10.1) points higher, counting counties by their votes. In 2000 the difference was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.1) points. The slope rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016. Whether it kept rising after 2016 depends on the version of the slope. Vote-weighted and unadjusted, its change from 2016 to 2024 is 0.0 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.4) points, an interval that includes zero. In five adjusted versions the change after 2016 is positive, between +0.4 and +1.1 points vote-weighted, so the slope is level after 2016 only in the unadjusted vote-weighted version.

Both measures describe counties. Education is the share of a county's residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, and the vote is the Democratic share of Democratic and Republican votes, in points. A vote-weighted estimate counts each county in proportion to its two-party votes in that election, so the largest counties count most, and a county-equal estimate counts every county once. The weightings agree on direction and differ in size, most in 2000, and this chapter reports both. The numbers cannot say how graduates voted, because a county with more graduates also differs from other counties in many other ways. Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-divide) asks the question of individuals. Its population is survey respondents who reported a vote, grouped by their own degree, and its shares are of the voters within each group; here the population is counties, and the share is of each county's two-party vote.

As correlations, the association was +0.66 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.71) vote-weighted and +0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.66) county-equal in 2024, against +0.28 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.37) and +0.10 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.20) in 2000. A correlation also reflects how much counties differ on each measure, so the two scales can move apart, as they did after 2016. Chapter 8.1, Five axes of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote) ranks education against income, race, age and rurality, and Chapter 8.2, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/education-ethnicity-and-the-county-shift) takes up the change in county swings from 2016 to 2024. This chapter measures the education gradient and when it appeared.

County college share is available for the 7 presidential elections from 2000 to 2024 in the data used here, and the dating below covers those years, with 3,114 counties in 2000 and 3,103 in 2024. The county panel takes college share from the 2000 census sample and from five-year American Community Survey estimates centered on 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, and interpolates between those anchors. The elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020 fall midway between two anchors, 2004 and 2008 are interpolated between the 2000 and 2010 anchors, and 2024 takes the 2022 anchor with no extrapolation. (Note: The 95% intervals in this chapter come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, 49 states and the District of Columbia, 2,000 times. They show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. The returns are full counts of votes, so the intervals are not sampling error of the vote, and they leave out the sampling error of the college shares. The interval of a change between two elections is computed inside each resample, so it reflects both elections together. The within-state slopes in Table 7 use HC3 robust standard errors and treat counties as independent.) The last section applies each county's 2000 college share to elections from 1972 to 1996, which ranks counties and does not measure education in those years.

### The slope rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016

Table 1 plots the slope for each election. Vote-weighted, it was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.1) points in 2000, 5.2 (95% CI 3.9 to 6.4) in 2004, 5.9 (95% CI 4.7 to 7.0) in 2008 and 6.0 (95% CI 4.9 to 7.0) in 2012, then 9.2 (95% CI 8.2 to 10.3) in 2016, 9.3 (95% CI 8.5 to 10.3) in 2020 and 9.2 (95% CI 8.4 to 10.1) in 2024. The rise from 2000 to 2008 was +2.1 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.0) points, with +1.3 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.7) to 2004 and +0.8 (95% CI 0.2 to 1.4) to 2008. The change from 2012 to 2016 was +3.2 (95% CI 2.7 to 3.8) points, the largest between consecutive elections. The changes from 2008 to 2012, 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024 were +0.1 (95% CI −0.2 to 0.3), +0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.5) and −0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.0), and each interval includes zero. A slope unit of 10 points is close to one standard deviation of college share across counties in 2024, 10.3 points counting each county once and 11.8 vote-weighted.

Table 1. Vote-weighted, the slope of the vote on county college share rose from 3.9 to 9.2 points per 10 points of college share, in steps before 2008 and between 2012 and 2016

Counting each county once, the slope was 1.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.0) in 2000, with an interval that reaches almost to zero, and it rose by +1.7 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.2) and +1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.6) points in the next two elections. It did not change from 2008 to 2012 (0.0 (95% CI −0.4 to 0.4)), rose by +2.8 (95% CI 2.3 to 3.4) to 2016 and by a further +0.8 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.1) to 2020, and did not change from 2020 to 2024 (−0.1 (95% CI −0.3 to 0.0)). Both weightings put the largest step between 2012 and 2016. The county-equal slope was still rising from 2016 to 2020, which is why its change from 2016 to 2024, +0.6 (95% CI 0.2 to 1.0) points, has an interval above zero.

The slope after 2016 depends on the version of the slope. Table 2 gives the changes from 2000 to 2008, 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2024 in six versions: college share alone, race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, within states with race and ethnicity held fixed, and the slope on each county's 2000 or 2024 college share held fixed for every election. The rises from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 have intervals above zero in all six versions and in both weightings. The change from 2016 to 2024 includes zero only for college share alone, vote-weighted. In the five other versions it is between +0.4 and +1.1 points vote-weighted and between +0.7 and +1.8 counting each county once, each with an interval above zero. These data therefore date the rises to 2008 and to 2016, and show a smaller change after 2016 whose size depends on the version.

Table 2. Vote-weighted, the slope rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 in all six versions, and from 2016 to 2024 it changed by +0.4 to +1.1 in the five adjusted versions and by 0.0 with college share alone

The correlation does not follow the unadjusted slope after 2016. The vote-weighted correlation was +0.42 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.48) in 2012, +0.58 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.64) in 2016 and +0.66 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.71) in 2024, a change of +0.09 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.10) from 2016 to 2024 (the correlation view of Table 1). A correlation equals the slope per point of college share multiplied by the standard deviation of college share and divided by that of the Democratic share across counties. From 2016 to 2024 the vote-weighted standard deviation of college share rose from 11.2 to 11.8 points and that of the Democratic share fell from 17.9 to 16.4, so the correlation rose while the unadjusted vote-weighted slope stayed level. The slope says how many points more Democratic a county with more graduates was, and the correlation also reflects how much counties differ on each measure.

A study that combined survey and county data found that a county's share of residents with a bachelor's degree was among the strongest predictors of the change in its vote share between 2000 and 2020 [1]. The estimates here describe the level of the vote in each election and not a county's own change, which Chapter 8.2, Education, ethnicity and the county shift, 2016 to 2024 (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/education-ethnicity-and-the-county-shift) follows.

### The widening comes mostly from the least educated counties

Table 3 ranks the counties of each election into five equal-sized groups by college share. In 2000 the vote-weighted Democratic share was 43.7% (95% CI 42.2% to 45.5%) in the least educated fifth and 53.0% (95% CI 49.4% to 56.0%) in the most educated, a gap of 9.3 (95% CI 5.3 to 12.6) points, and the mean college share of the groups ran from 9.0% to 29.1%. In 2024 the two were 26.4% (95% CI 23.4% to 29.7%) and 56.1% (95% CI 53.2% to 59.0%), a gap of 29.8 (95% CI 26.4 to 33.0), with mean college shares from 13.8% to 41.2%. The least educated fifth changed by −17.4 (95% CI −20.7 to −14.0) points between the two elections and the most educated by +3.1 (95% CI 0.5 to 5.5), so most of the change in the gap is in the least educated counties. Over the same years the vote-weighted Democratic share of all counties went from 50.3% to 49.2%.

Table 3. The most educated fifth of counties voted 29.8 points more Democratic than the least educated fifth in 2024, against 9.3 in 2000

The groups are equal in counties and not in votes. The most educated fifth cast 64.4% of the two-party votes in 2024 and the least educated 3.6%, so the vote-weighted figures describe mainly the most educated counties.

Counting each county once, the 2000 picture is different. The least educated fifth (44.0%) and the most educated (44.6%) had similar Democratic shares, and the gap of 0.6 (95% CI −2.6 to 3.9) points has an interval that includes zero. Both were above the three groups between them, so the 2000 relationship was U-shaped, with the lowest mean, 37.9%, in the fourth fifth. In 2024 the county-equal means were 26.3%, 26.5% and 27.4% in the three least educated fifths, 32.1% in the fourth and 48.3% in the most educated, and the gap was 22.0 (95% CI 17.6 to 26.0) points. The gap changed by +21.4 (95% CI 17.9 to 24.9) points from 2000 to 2024 counting each county once and by +20.5 (95% CI 16.7 to 24.4) vote-weighted.

### The 2000 slope depends on the weighting and on the large counties

In 2000 the vote-weighted slope was 3.9 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.1) and the county-equal slope 1.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.0), and in 2024 they were 9.2 (95% CI 8.4 to 10.1) and 8.6 (95% CI 7.2 to 9.8). Table 4 separates large counties, those with 250,000 or more two-party votes in the election, from the rest. In 2000 the 76 large counties cast 35.1% of the votes. They had a mean college share of 30.2% against 16.2% in the other counties, and a mean Democratic share of 57.7% against 40.8%.

Table 4. Counting each county once, the 2000 slope inside large counties and inside other counties each had an interval that includes zero, and by 2024 both were above zero

Inside each class, counting each county once, the 2000 slope was 0.6 (95% CI −2.9 to 4.1) among the large counties and 0.7 (95% CI −0.8 to 2.0) among the others, and both intervals include zero. Vote-weighted, the 2000 slope was 2.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 3.8) among the other counties, an interval above zero, and 0.2 (95% CI −3.4 to 3.0) among the large counties, an interval that includes zero. Splitting the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share, 61% (95% CI 43% to 87%) lies between the two classes and 39% (95% CI 13% to 57%) inside them in 2000. The difference between large and other counties and a gradient inside the other counties both contribute to the vote-weighted slope of 2000, and the intervals are wide. In 2024 the two shares are 38% (95% CI 28% to 48%) and 62% (95% CI 52% to 72%). By 2024 the county-equal slope was 5.9 (95% CI 3.4 to 8.0) inside the large counties and 7.8 (95% CI 6.2 to 9.1) inside the others. The correlations, +0.04 (95% CI −0.23 to 0.32) and +0.04 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.13) in 2000, were +0.46 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.64) and +0.50 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.61). The mean Democratic share of the large counties changed by −0.1 points between 2000 and 2024 and that of the other counties by −9.9. The large counties are a different set in 2000 and in 2024, with 76 counties and 135. The change in means is in the other counties.

### Holding race and ethnicity fixed lowers the slope, which still rises

Counties with more graduates differ in racial and ethnic composition from other counties, so the slope of college share alone may carry part of the relation between composition and the vote. Table 5 adds the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents to the regression, so the slope compares counties with the same four shares, each entering as a straight line. Vote-weighted, the slope goes from 3.9 (95% CI 2.5 to 5.1) to 2.0 (95% CI −0.1 to 3.4) in 2000 and from 9.2 (95% CI 8.4 to 10.1) to 7.8 (95% CI 7.0 to 8.9) in 2024, and the 2000 interval includes zero. Counting each county once, it goes from 1.6 (95% CI 0.1 to 3.0) to 0.8 (95% CI −1.5 to 2.3) in 2000 and from 8.6 (95% CI 7.2 to 9.8) to 8.5 (95% CI 7.5 to 9.3) in 2024.

Table 5. Vote-weighted, the slope with state and race held fixed went from 0.5 in 2000 to 7.6 in 2024

Vote-weighted, the adjustment lowers the slope by 1.8 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.5) points in 2000 and 1.4 (95% CI 0.2 to 2.3) in 2024. The difference between the two reductions is −0.5 (95% CI −2.3 to 0.3), an interval that includes zero, so these data do not show that race matters less to the slope in 2024 than in 2000. Counting each county once, the reduction goes from 0.7 to 0.1 and the difference is −0.6 (95% CI −2.2 to 0.0), an interval whose upper end is at zero. With race held fixed, the rise from 2000 to 2024 is +5.8 (95% CI 4.7 to 8.2) points vote-weighted and +7.6 (95% CI 6.5 to 9.6) county-equal, and the largest change between consecutive elections is again from 2012 to 2016, at +3.2 (95% CI 2.8 to 3.9) and +3.1 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.6).

A straight-line control can miss a pattern that differs between kinds of counties. Table 6 therefore fits the slope separately inside four groups of counties by non-Hispanic white share: under 50%, 50% to under 75%, 75% to under 90%, and 90% or more. In the most white group the county-equal slope was 0.1 (95% CI −2.2 to 2.1) in 2000, an interval that includes zero, and 8.7 (95% CI 5.2 to 11.8) in 2024, a change of +8.6 (95% CI 5.4 to 11.3) points. The vote-weighted change is +9.7 (95% CI 6.8 to 12.1) in that group and +1.8 (95% CI −0.6 to 6.7) in the group under 50% white, where the 2024 slope was 6.2 (95% CI 4.5 to 7.3). The change is smallest in the least white group in the point estimates in both weightings, and its interval includes zero in both (+3.7 (95% CI −0.2 to 7.2) county-equal). The interval of that change nearly touches the interval of the change in the most white group vote-weighted and overlaps it county-equal, so these data do not rank the two changes. In 2024 the slope is above zero, with the whole interval above, in all four groups in both weightings. From the least white group to the most white, the groups held 253, 635, 724 and 1,502 counties in 2000 and 404, 855, 1,057 and 787 in 2024.

Table 6. The slope was higher in 2024 than in 2000 in all four groups of counties by white share, with the largest point change among counties 90% white or more

### Inside states the slope is lower and, vote-weighted, positive everywhere by 2024

A second comparison asks the question inside states, which share candidates, campaigns and election law, by giving each state its own baseline (fixed effects). Vote-weighted, the within-state slope is 2.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.6) in 2000 and 8.3 (95% CI 7.6 to 9.1) in 2024, against 3.9 and 9.2 across all counties. Counting each county once it is 1.2 (95% CI −0.2 to 2.6) and 7.3 (95% CI 6.2 to 8.3). The within-state slope is lower than the slope across all counties in every election in both weightings. Vote-weighted, the reduction is 1.5 points in 2000 and 1.0 in 2024, a difference of −0.5 (95% CI −1.2 to 0.2), an interval that includes zero. With state and race and ethnicity held fixed together, the vote-weighted slope is 0.5 (95% CI −0.7 to 1.6) in 2000, an interval that includes zero, and 7.6 (95% CI 6.9 to 8.4) in 2024, a change of +7.1 (95% CI 6.1 to 8.2) points. Counting each county once the two are 0.7 (95% CI −0.7 to 2.1) and 7.6 (95% CI 6.8 to 8.5).

Table 7 gives the slope inside each of the 39 states with at least 20 counties in both 2000 and 2024, counting counties by their votes. It was positive in 29 of them in 2000 and in 39 in 2024. Counting each county once the numbers are 26 and 36, and the interval lies above zero in 12 states in 2000 and 30 in 2024. In 2000 the county-equal slope was negative in 13 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin. In 4 of them, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas, the whole interval lies below zero. In 2024 only Mississippi, South Carolina and South Dakota have a negative county-equal slope, and each interval includes zero.

Table 7. The vote-weighted slope was positive in every one of the 39 states in 2024, against 29 in 2000

### Democratic counties at or below the median college share became rare

Table 8 classes each county in each election by two facts: whether its college share is above the median of that election's counties, and whether Democrats won a majority of its two-party vote. The median county college share was 14.5% in 2000 and 22.1% in 2024. Counties at or below the median with a Democratic majority numbered 325 in 2000 and 93 in 2024. Counties above the median with a Democratic majority numbered 350 and 352, and counties at or below the median with a Republican majority went from 1,232 to 1,459. The two classes in which college share and the majority line up were 50.8% of counties and 55.1% of two-party votes in 2000, and 58.4% and 60.8% in 2024.

Table 8. Counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority fell from 325 in 2000 to 93 in 2024

Of the 325 counties at or below the median with a Democratic majority in 2000, 66% had a non-Hispanic white share of 50% or more. Of those 212 counties with a 2024 return, 208 had a Republican majority in 2024. The other four were Russell County, Alabama, Crittenden County, Arkansas, Wyandotte County, Kansas and St. John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana, and Clifton Forge city, Virginia, has no 2024 return. The 93 such counties in 2024 are mostly in the South (86%), 17 of them in Mississippi, and the rest are in New Mexico, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Montana and Wisconsin. In all of them the non-Hispanic white share is under 50%, and 82% have a non-Hispanic Black share of 25% or more. The map describes a majority in each county and cannot say which residents voted for which party.

### Before 2000 the college-share ranking has a mixed relation with the vote

The data hold no county college share before 2000, so the education of residents at the time cannot be compared with earlier votes. Table 9 instead applies each county's 2000 college share to the elections from 1972 to 1996 and to those of 2000 to 2024 alike. College share in 2000 and in 2024 has a correlation of +0.94 across counties, so the ranking changed slowly over those years, and the data cannot show whether it changed as slowly before 2000. The 2000 ranking is a different measure from the education of a county's residents in 1980, and a county that gained graduates before 2000 is placed by its 2000 level.

Table 9. Counting each county once, the correlation with 2000 college share was positive in 1972, negative in the point estimates from 1976 to 1996 and positive from 2000

Counting each county once, the correlation was +0.10 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.18) in 1972, close to its 2000 value of +0.10 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.20), then −0.33 (95% CI −0.39 to −0.27) in 1976 and −0.20 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.10) in 1980. From 1984 to 1996 it was between −0.10 and −0.07 in the point estimates. Vote-weighted it was +0.24 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.34) in 1972, against +0.28 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.37) in 2000, then −0.21 (95% CI −0.34 to −0.09) in 1976 and −0.05 (95% CI −0.14 to 0.05) in 1980. From 1984 to 1996 it was between +0.09 and +0.15. The two weightings differ in sign from 1984 to 1996, so the earlier relationship, like that of 2000, depends on how counties are weighted. Within 2000 to 2024 the 2000 ranking dates the rise as the election-year college share does. With each county's 2000 college share held fixed, the vote-weighted slope rose by +4.0 (95% CI 3.5 to 4.6) points from 2012 to 2016, against +3.2 (95% CI 2.7 to 3.8) with the election-year share. The larger step reflects that college share in 2000 is less spread out across counties than in 2016. The vote-weighted correlation with 2000 college share went from +0.39 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.46) in 2012 to +0.55 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.62) in 2016, and in 2024 it is +0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.69), near the +0.66 found with the 2024 college share. The interpolated college shares of 2004 to 2020 therefore do not account for the step to 2016.

### What these data cannot show

Every estimate here describes counties, and a pattern across places can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them, a limit known as ecological inference. Robinson [2] showed that a correlation across places can have the opposite sign from the correlation across individuals. College share counts residents 25 and older with a degree, not voters, and a county with more graduates also has different occupations, ages, densities and histories. The chapter holds only race and ethnicity composition and state fixed. Counties also gain or lose graduates by migration, so a change in the slope can reflect where people live as well as how they vote. A book-length account of the diploma divide among individuals is [3], and Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-divide) uses survey respondents.

The dates are the dates of elections. College share for 2004 to 2020 is interpolated between anchors, and the 2000 value comes from a census sample, so the college shares carry sampling error, most in small counties, that no interval includes. Counties are not harmonized across boundary changes. In 2024, 9 of the 3,112 counties with returns have no county characteristics, among them the Connecticut counties. Kansas City's votes, a separate unit in the 2024 returns, are added to Jackson County, Missouri, whose census figures are county-wide. The vote is the Democratic share of Democratic and Republican votes cast, so it leaves out third-party votes and people who did not vote, and a change in turnout can change a county's share without any voter changing party. The intervals say how much a number depends on which states are in the set, and the within-state intervals treat counties as independent.

The weightings, the large-county cut, the white-share groups and the median split of the map are rules that move the estimates, and the section on weighting shows how far the weighting moves them. The state comparison and the controls for race and ethnicity do not hold income, age, occupation, density or religion fixed, which Chapter 8.1, Five axes of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote) and Planned, Income and the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/income-and-the-county-vote; planned) take up. The data used here have no measure of attitudes, candidates, campaigns or turnout by group, so they cannot say why the slope rose when it did. They hold no county college share before 2000, so they cannot date the start of the gradient, only describe how the 2000 ranking lined up with earlier votes.

## Tables

### Table 1. Vote-weighted, the slope of the vote on county college share rose from 3.9 to 9.2 points per 10 points of college share, in steps before 2008 and between 2012 and 2016

Slope of a county's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote on the share of its residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, 2000 to 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | measure | n_units | weighting | year |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 5.14 | 2.45 | 3.87 | Slope | 3,114 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 6.38 | 3.90 | 5.18 | Slope | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.02 | 4.73 | 5.94 | Slope | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 7.00 | 4.89 | 5.99 | Slope | 3,112 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 10.26 | 8.23 | 9.23 | Slope | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 10.30 | 8.52 | 9.35 | Slope | 3,105 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 10.12 | 8.42 | 9.22 | Slope | 3,103 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 2.99 | 0.089 | 1.56 | Slope | 3,114 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 4.58 | 1.96 | 3.30 | Slope | 3,113 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 6.15 | 4.06 | 5.11 | Slope | 3,113 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 6.36 | 3.93 | 5.15 | Slope | 3,112 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 9.36 | 6.48 | 7.95 | Slope | 3,113 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 10.03 | 7.31 | 8.73 | Slope | 3,105 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 9.79 | 7.24 | 8.59 | Slope | 3,103 | County-equal | 2024 |
| 0.365 | 0.189 | 0.282 | Correlation | 3,114 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 0.453 | 0.297 | 0.378 | Correlation | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 0.491 | 0.357 | 0.427 | Correlation | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 0.478 | 0.351 | 0.415 | Correlation | 3,112 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 0.637 | 0.528 | 0.577 | Correlation | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 0.693 | 0.594 | 0.637 | Correlation | 3,105 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 0.713 | 0.621 | 0.663 | Correlation | 3,103 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 0.196 | 0.005 | 0.099 | Correlation | 3,114 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 0.304 | 0.118 | 0.211 | Correlation | 3,113 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 0.395 | 0.231 | 0.310 | Correlation | 3,113 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 0.398 | 0.219 | 0.305 | Correlation | 3,112 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 0.564 | 0.355 | 0.460 | Correlation | 3,113 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 0.626 | 0.427 | 0.530 | Correlation | 3,105 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 0.656 | 0.452 | 0.559 | Correlation | 3,103 | County-equal | 2024 |

Views: Slope (measure = Slope); Correlation (measure = Correlation).

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so they carry no sampling error. The 95% intervals come from a bootstrap that resamples whole states, so they show how much a number depends on which states are in the set. They do not include the sampling error of the county college shares, which are census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated between years.

Note: 3,114 counties in 2000 and 3,103 in 2024; Alaska and counties without college share are left out, and in 2024 the votes of Kansas City are added to Jackson County, Missouri. See Methods.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/gradient_by_year.json

### Table 2. Vote-weighted, the slope rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 in all six versions, and from 2016 to 2024 it changed by +0.4 to +1.1 in the five adjusted versions and by 0.0 with college share alone

Change in the slope of the county Democratic share on county college share between elections, six versions of the slope, vote-weighted and county-equal

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | period | version | weighting |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| 3.01 | 1.28 | 2.08 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | College share alone | Vote-weighted |
| 3.78 | 2.75 | 3.24 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | College share alone | Vote-weighted |
| 0.381 | −0.381 | −0.015 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | College share alone | Vote-weighted |
| 3.73 | 1.25 | 2.09 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 3.88 | 2.84 | 3.24 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 1.25 | 0.177 | 0.640 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 2.73 | 1.56 | 2.14 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Within states | Vote-weighted |
| 4.03 | 2.92 | 3.46 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Within states | Vote-weighted |
| 0.664 | 0.066 | 0.355 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Within states | Vote-weighted |
| 3.41 | 2.08 | 2.67 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 4.05 | 3.26 | 3.64 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 1.46 | 0.747 | 1.11 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 3.07 | 1.41 | 2.17 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 4.56 | 3.51 | 3.98 | 3,111 | 2012 to 2016 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 1.05 | 0.319 | 0.671 | 3,102 | 2016 to 2024 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 2.37 | 0.925 | 1.58 | 3,103 | 2000 to 2008 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 3.70 | 2.76 | 3.20 | 3,105 | 2012 to 2016 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 0.835 | 0.110 | 0.442 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted |
| 4.48 | 2.56 | 3.55 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | College share alone | County-equal |
| 3.37 | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | College share alone | County-equal |
| 1.01 | 0.246 | 0.641 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | College share alone | County-equal |
| 5.14 | 2.59 | 3.57 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 3.60 | 2.65 | 3.08 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 1.26 | 0.564 | 0.944 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 2.76 | 1.68 | 2.24 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Within states | County-equal |
| 3.67 | 2.92 | 3.29 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Within states | County-equal |
| 1.01 | 0.316 | 0.673 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Within states | County-equal |
| 3.75 | 2.23 | 2.92 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 3.71 | 2.95 | 3.33 | 3,113 | 2012 to 2016 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 1.07 | 0.280 | 0.690 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal |
| 4.99 | 3.12 | 4.09 | 3,113 | 2000 to 2008 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal |
| 4.52 | 3.36 | 3.92 | 3,111 | 2012 to 2016 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal |
| 2.24 | 1.42 | 1.83 | 3,102 | 2016 to 2024 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal |
| 3.65 | 2.34 | 3.02 | 3,103 | 2000 to 2008 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal |
| 3.30 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3,105 | 2012 to 2016 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal |
| 1.94 | 1.26 | 1.60 | 3,103 | 2016 to 2024 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal |

Views: Vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (weighting = County-equal).

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The 2000 and 2024 college share versions use each county's college share in that year for every election, so they leave out counties without a value in that year.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/step_sensitivity.json

### Table 3. The most educated fifth of counties voted 29.8 points more Democratic than the least educated fifth in 2024, against 9.3 in 2000

Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote against the share of residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more, by county, 2024 and 2000, with the mean of five equal-sized groups of counties

| County (largest only) | College share, 2024 (%) | Democratic share, 2024 (%) | College share, 2000 (%) | Democratic share, 2000 (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Maricopa, AZ | 36.7 | 48.2 | 25.9 | 44.6 |
| Pima, AZ | 36.8 | 57.7 | 26.7 | 54.2 |
| Alameda, CA | 52.2 | 78.0 | 34.9 | 74.2 |
| Contra Costa, CA | 45.2 | 69.6 | 35.0 | 61.3 |
| Fresno, CA | 24.3 | 47.7 | 17.5 | 44.8 |
| Los Angeles, CA | 36.0 | 67.0 | 24.9 | 66.2 |
| Orange, CA | 44.1 | 51.4 | 30.8 | 42.0 |
| Riverside, CA | 25.6 | 49.4 | 16.6 | 46.6 |
| Sacramento, CA | 34.1 | 60.2 | 24.8 | 52.1 |
| San Bernardino, CA | 23.3 | 48.9 | 15.9 | 49.2 |
| San Diego, CA | 43.2 | 58.6 | 29.5 | 47.9 |
| San Francisco, CA | 60.3 | 83.8 | 45.0 | 82.4 |
| San Mateo, CA | 53.7 | 76.0 | 39.0 | 67.5 |
| Santa Clara, CA | 56.5 | 70.8 | 40.5 | 63.8 |
| Ventura, CA | 36.1 | 57.8 | 26.9 | 49.5 |
| Arapahoe, CO | 46.5 | 60.3 | 37.0 | 45.8 |
| Denver, CO | 56.5 | 78.8 | 34.5 | 66.7 |
| El Paso, CO | 41.9 | 45.0 | 31.8 | 32.5 |
| Jefferson, CO | 52.0 | 60.0 | 36.5 | 45.7 |
| District Of Columbia, DC | 64.2 | 93.3 | 39.1 | 90.5 |
| Brevard, FL | 34.2 | 39.5 | 23.6 | 45.8 |
| Broward, FL | 36.7 | 58.6 | 24.5 | 68.5 |
| Duval, FL | 34.4 | 49.3 | 21.9 | 41.5 |
| Hillsborough, FL | 38.1 | 48.5 | 25.1 | 48.4 |
| Lee, FL | 31.2 | 35.7 | 21.1 | 40.9 |
| Miami-Dade, FL | 34.4 | 44.2 | 21.7 | 53.2 |
| Orange, FL | 39.3 | 56.9 | 26.1 | 51.0 |
| Palm Beach, FL | 40.5 | 50.4 | 27.7 | 63.8 |
| Pasco, FL | 29.2 | 37.3 | 13.1 | 50.4 |
| Pinellas, FL | 36.8 | 47.4 | 22.9 | 52.1 |
| Polk, FL | 23.5 | 39.6 | 14.9 | 45.4 |
| Volusia, FL | 28.4 | 39.0 | 17.6 | 54.2 |
| Cobb, GA | 50.8 | 57.5 | 39.8 | 38.2 |
| DeKalb, GA | 47.4 | 82.7 | 36.3 | 72.4 |
| Fulton, GA | 58.5 | 72.7 | 41.4 | 59.2 |
| Gwinnett, GA | 39.0 | 58.4 | 34.1 | 33.5 |
| Honolulu, HI | 38.5 | 61.0 | 27.9 | 58.0 |
| Cook, IL | 42.7 | 71.3 | 28.0 | 70.6 |
| DuPage, IL | 51.8 | 56.8 | 41.7 | 43.1 |
| Lake, IL | 47.7 | 60.5 | 38.6 | 48.7 |
| Will, IL | 37.5 | 50.8 | 25.5 | 48.7 |
| Marion, IN | 34.8 | 64.1 | 25.4 | 49.3 |
| Johnson, KS | 57.6 | 54.3 | 47.7 | 37.8 |
| Jefferson, KY | 37.0 | 58.4 | 24.8 | 50.8 |
| Anne Arundel, MD | 45.8 | 57.2 | 30.6 | 46.2 |
| Baltimore, MD | 42.3 | 62.6 | 30.6 | 54.7 |
| Montgomery, MD | 60.6 | 77.4 | 54.6 | 65.1 |
| Prince George's, MD | 36.7 | 88.5 | 27.2 | 81.2 |
| Essex, MA | 43.0 | 60.4 | 31.3 | 61.9 |
| Middlesex, MA | 59.5 | 70.2 | 43.6 | 67.0 |
| Norfolk, MA | 58.8 | 64.7 | 42.9 | 63.8 |
| Worcester, MA | 39.7 | 55.1 | 26.9 | 60.4 |
| Kent, MI | 40.8 | 52.7 | 25.8 | 39.1 |
| Macomb, MI | 27.7 | 43.0 | 17.6 | 51.2 |
| Oakland, MI | 51.0 | 55.4 | 38.2 | 50.6 |
| Wayne, MI | 27.6 | 65.0 | 17.2 | 70.4 |
| Hennepin, MN | 54.1 | 71.8 | 39.1 | 57.7 |
| Jackson, MO | 34.0 | 59.8 | 23.4 | 60.6 |
| St Louis County, MO | 47.4 | 61.9 | 35.4 | 52.7 |
| Clark, NV | 27.8 | 51.3 | 17.3 | 53.4 |
| Bergen, NJ | 53.1 | 51.7 | 38.2 | 57.0 |
| Essex, NJ | 39.1 | 72.8 | 27.5 | 73.5 |
| Middlesex, NJ | 45.6 | 54.1 | 33.0 | 62.4 |
| Monmouth, NJ | 51.3 | 44.2 | 34.6 | 52.4 |
| Ocean, NJ | 34.4 | 31.8 | 19.5 | 49.1 |
| Bernalillo, NM | 38.2 | 60.8 | 30.5 | 51.1 |
| Bronx, NY | 22.4 | 72.7 | 14.6 | 88.0 |
| Erie, NY | 38.0 | 54.8 | 24.5 | 60.0 |
| Kings, NY | 42.1 | 72.0 | 21.8 | 83.7 |
| Monroe, NY | 41.5 | 59.5 | 31.2 | 53.4 |
| Nassau, NY | 49.7 | 47.9 | 35.4 | 60.1 |
| New York, NY | 64.2 | 82.4 | 49.4 | 84.7 |
| Queens, NY | 36.1 | 62.3 | 24.3 | 77.4 |
| Suffolk, NY | 40.2 | 45.0 | 27.5 | 56.0 |
| Westchester, NY | 53.1 | 63.1 | 40.9 | 61.0 |
| Mecklenburg, NC | 49.2 | 66.7 | 37.1 | 48.6 |
| Wake, NC | 57.2 | 63.0 | 43.9 | 46.4 |
| Cuyahoga, OH | 36.5 | 65.9 | 25.1 | 65.2 |
| Franklin, OH | 42.1 | 64.3 | 31.8 | 50.5 |
| Hamilton, OH | 41.8 | 57.5 | 29.2 | 44.2 |
| Multnomah, OR | 48.9 | 82.2 | 30.7 | 69.2 |
| Allegheny, PA | 45.8 | 60.3 | 28.3 | 58.4 |
| Bucks, PA | 44.8 | 50.0 | 31.2 | 52.2 |
| Chester, PA | 57.1 | 57.3 | 42.5 | 45.0 |
| Delaware, PA | 41.9 | 62.0 | 30.0 | 56.0 |
| Montgomery, PA | 53.0 | 61.5 | 38.7 | 55.0 |
| Philadelphia, PA | 35.4 | 79.8 | 17.9 | 81.6 |
| Shelby, TN | 34.3 | 62.9 | 25.3 | 57.3 |
| Bexar, TX | 31.8 | 54.9 | 22.7 | 46.2 |
| Collin, TX | 56.2 | 44.3 | 47.3 | 25.1 |
| Dallas, TX | 35.7 | 61.3 | 27.0 | 46.1 |
| Denton, TX | 49.4 | 43.3 | 36.6 | 28.2 |
| Fort Bend, TX | 50.2 | 50.8 | 36.9 | 39.3 |
| Harris, TX | 34.2 | 52.8 | 26.9 | 44.1 |
| Montgomery, TX | 38.8 | 27.0 | 25.3 | 22.4 |
| Tarrant, TX | 34.8 | 47.4 | 26.6 | 37.7 |
| Travis, TX | 56.6 | 70.0 | 40.6 | 47.1 |
| Williamson, TX | 48.4 | 48.8 | 33.6 | 29.0 |
| Salt Lake, UT | 39.4 | 55.3 | 27.4 | 38.5 |
| Fairfax, VA | 65.0 | 68.0 | 54.8 | 49.3 |
| King, WA | 56.7 | 76.8 | 40.0 | 63.6 |
| Pierce, WA | 30.9 | 55.5 | 20.6 | 53.9 |
| Snohomish, WA | 38.2 | 59.8 | 24.4 | 54.2 |
| Dane, WI | 55.3 | 76.2 | 40.6 | 65.3 |
| Milwaukee, WI | 34.7 | 69.6 | 23.6 | 60.7 |
| n/a | 29.1 | 26.6 | 18.0 | 29.2 |
| n/a | 33.7 | 20.7 | 23.1 | 25.5 |
| n/a | 10.6 | 42.6 | 10.9 | 50.4 |
| n/a | 11.7 | 17.6 | 7.1 | 38.8 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 28.2 |
| n/a | 8.1 | 73.0 | 7.7 | 70.3 |
| n/a | 13.5 | 38.6 | 10.4 | 46.6 |
| n/a | 20.6 | 27.4 | 15.2 | 41.4 |
| n/a | 14.9 | 38.3 | 9.5 | 48.2 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 45.7 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 32.3 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 38.0 | 9.6 | 50.7 |
| n/a | 15.0 | 41.4 | 12.1 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 14.7 | 14.8 | 7.8 | 35.5 |
| n/a | 17.0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 33.3 |
| n/a | 22.5 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 34.4 |
| n/a | 21.7 | 26.6 | 14.1 | 50.1 |
| n/a | 13.4 | 43.0 | 9.2 | 50.8 |
| n/a | 13.9 | 28.2 | 8.0 | 46.9 |
| n/a | 17.2 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 33.1 |
| n/a | 18.7 | 22.6 | 11.2 | 40.9 |
| n/a | 19.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 33.7 |
| n/a | 20.4 | 23.6 | 14.0 | 31.7 |
| n/a | 17.5 | 66.4 | 13.9 | 59.8 |
| n/a | 14.1 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 35.5 |
| n/a | 25.4 | 23.8 | 16.6 | 28.4 |
| n/a | 13.5 | 26.7 | 10.6 | 39.3 |
| n/a | 18.1 | 22.0 | 13.4 | 45.3 |
| n/a | 14.9 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 40.1 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 13.2 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 29.6 |
| n/a | 15.1 | 78.0 | 10.5 | 80.5 |
| n/a | 17.6 | 53.4 | 8.1 | 60.9 |
| n/a | 21.8 | 24.5 | 14.1 | 40.7 |
| n/a | 23.0 | 25.9 | 18.4 | 29.8 |
| n/a | 15.9 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 51.7 |
| n/a | 36.2 | 55.3 | 24.6 | 48.4 |
| n/a | 12.1 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 37.2 |
| n/a | 29.8 | 24.0 | 18.5 | 44.3 |
| n/a | 15.2 | 18.6 | 7.5 | 52.6 |
| n/a | 42.4 | 35.9 | 27.9 | 39.4 |
| n/a | 30.2 | 27.8 | 16.9 | 38.8 |
| n/a | 14.4 | 68.7 | 11.0 | 73.6 |
| n/a | 21.1 | 78.3 | 18.8 | 87.5 |
| n/a | 46.4 | 45.4 | 34.3 | 43.7 |
| n/a | 19.5 | 48.1 | 12.1 | 50.8 |
| n/a | 13.3 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 40.0 |
| n/a | 21.5 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 37.8 |
| n/a | 26.0 | 41.7 | 18.6 | 42.9 |
| n/a | 11.7 | 38.4 | 11.8 | 42.1 |
| n/a | 34.5 | 65.5 | 28.5 | 51.0 |
| n/a | 23.3 | 23.5 | 18.4 | 38.4 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 71.4 | 10.0 | 69.9 |
| n/a | 13.1 | 38.3 | 9.8 | 49.0 |
| n/a | 28.0 | 37.3 | 18.4 | 41.8 |
| n/a | 18.4 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 39.9 |
| n/a | 18.2 | 50.8 | 9.7 | 57.5 |
| n/a | 21.4 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 27.5 |
| n/a | 46.8 | 29.3 | 36.8 | 21.7 |
| n/a | 19.0 | 70.7 | 12.4 | 73.0 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 33.0 | 11.2 | 44.9 |
| n/a | 20.3 | 25.1 | 14.1 | 38.7 |
| n/a | 32.1 | 39.7 | 24.0 | 42.0 |
| n/a | 16.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 46.3 |
| n/a | 17.0 | 22.2 | 8.6 | 45.1 |
| n/a | 12.9 | 65.8 | 10.1 | 67.5 |
| n/a | 14.3 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 29.6 |
| n/a | 16.6 | 59.6 | 11.3 | 68.7 |
| n/a | 28.1 | 38.3 | 18.8 | 42.4 |
| n/a | 40.3 | 60.1 | 29.9 | 53.6 |
| n/a | 18.7 | 31.0 | 13.9 | 45.7 |
| n/a | 14.6 | 25.7 | 11.8 | 35.8 |
| n/a | 20.9 | 29.2 | 12.2 | 42.9 |
| n/a | 13.5 | 27.8 | 8.7 | 41.0 |
| n/a | 15.2 | 21.9 | 9.9 | 41.7 |
| n/a | 19.1 | 41.3 | 12.3 | 48.8 |
| n/a | 22.5 | 38.9 | 11.9 | 49.4 |
| n/a | 23.1 | 59.4 | 15.2 | 61.0 |
| n/a | 30.3 | 32.9 | 21.1 | 37.5 |
| n/a | 16.8 | 39.7 | 11.8 | 43.4 |
| n/a | 13.6 | 27.6 | 12.2 | 46.2 |
| n/a | 12.8 | 25.6 | 10.1 | 52.3 |
| n/a | 19.4 | 21.1 | 12.8 | 40.6 |
| n/a | 37.8 | 36.1 | 20.3 | 33.2 |
| n/a | 17.2 | 17.0 | 12.7 | 34.4 |
| n/a | 15.3 | 30.3 | 11.9 | 54.2 |
| n/a | 19.8 | 18.5 | 7.3 | 47.4 |
| n/a | 20.0 | 33.8 | 13.8 | 39.3 |
| n/a | 18.0 | 52.0 | 11.7 | 64.3 |
| n/a | 26.2 | 39.5 | 19.8 | 55.2 |
| n/a | 15.3 | 18.6 | 7.4 | 61.0 |
| n/a | 18.4 | 15.5 | 13.9 | 41.8 |
| n/a | 19.7 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 45.7 |
| n/a | 21.9 | 31.5 | 16.8 | 44.4 |
| n/a | 19.9 | 29.4 | 11.5 | 49.7 |
| n/a | 29.7 | 30.8 | 20.9 | 50.4 |
| n/a | 20.0 | 20.3 | 9.7 | 36.8 |
| n/a | 17.0 | 51.2 | 12.8 | 55.2 |
| n/a | 18.4 | 25.7 | 9.9 | 50.5 |
| n/a | 11.3 | 35.0 | 9.6 | 52.1 |
| n/a | 12.6 | 47.6 | 11.1 | 63.4 |
| n/a | 25.6 | 32.8 | 17.3 | 52.6 |
| n/a | 35.0 | 33.4 | 25.2 | 42.7 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 18.1 | 11.0 | 44.9 |
| n/a | 16.0 | 18.3 | 10.5 | 49.3 |
| n/a | 25.3 | 31.5 | 18.0 | 45.3 |
| n/a | 21.5 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 43.6 |
| n/a | 16.9 | 18.9 | 10.9 | 52.0 |
| n/a | 16.3 | 29.8 | 11.0 | 54.7 |
| n/a | 17.5 | 23.4 | 11.2 | 52.3 |
| n/a | 16.2 | 26.3 | 11.6 | 47.0 |
| n/a | 18.1 | 19.6 | 13.7 | 45.6 |
| n/a | 19.7 | 16.4 | 11.7 | 52.9 |
| n/a | 14.7 | 25.2 | 10.3 | 61.6 |
| n/a | 20.1 | 60.2 | 15.7 | 66.9 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 23.7 | 13.1 | 47.2 |
| n/a | 9.0 | 30.5 | 9.5 | 54.0 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 17.3 | 8.5 | 55.3 |
| n/a | 7.2 | 51.8 | 7.3 | 66.9 |
| n/a | 12.0 | 24.5 | 7.6 | 56.2 |
| n/a | 17.2 | 22.5 | 9.9 | 55.8 |
| n/a | 16.7 | 18.2 | 9.4 | 42.3 |
| n/a | 22.1 | 22.6 | 14.6 | 39.2 |
| n/a | 12.9 | 20.2 | 10.1 | 37.8 |
| n/a | 14.9 | 19.4 | 10.4 | 39.6 |
| n/a | 15.0 | 24.1 | 12.5 | 46.3 |
| n/a | 13.7 | 33.9 | 11.3 | 57.8 |
| n/a | 12.7 | 42.0 | 8.4 | 59.0 |
| n/a | 16.7 | 17.8 | 8.8 | 40.3 |
| n/a | 13.8 | 29.8 | 10.7 | 51.0 |
| n/a | 15.7 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 32.3 |
| n/a | 16.3 | 40.3 | 12.7 | 53.6 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 20.6 | 11.1 | 43.8 |
| n/a | 15.0 | 56.8 | 12.4 | 65.6 |
| n/a | 19.1 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 41.4 |
| n/a | 11.4 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 57.9 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 14.1 | 10.9 | 33.5 |
| n/a | 24.7 | 23.2 | 19.0 | 37.2 |
| n/a | 18.2 | 16.6 | 9.0 | 45.6 |
| n/a | 37.9 | 61.4 | 28.1 | 55.0 |
| n/a | 12.1 | 17.5 | 10.6 | 53.0 |
| n/a | 14.2 | 50.4 | 9.6 | 59.4 |
| n/a | 29.4 | 29.5 | 16.4 | 40.6 |
| n/a | 13.0 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 37.6 |
| n/a | 15.0 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 32.0 |
| n/a | 23.3 | 30.8 | 16.6 | 39.8 |
| n/a | 9.3 | 18.6 | 9.2 | 49.8 |
| n/a | 13.9 | 18.0 | 10.3 | 46.7 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 18.5 | 9.8 | 43.8 |
| n/a | 19.1 | 33.0 | 14.9 | 42.0 |
| n/a | 15.0 | 19.3 | 11.5 | 47.9 |
| n/a | 35.2 | 46.6 | 24.5 | 43.1 |
| n/a | 20.4 | 18.7 | 15.5 | 38.8 |
| n/a | 16.2 | 33.4 | 8.0 | 65.4 |
| n/a | 14.9 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 48.7 |
| n/a | 41.1 | 66.3 | 28.2 | 48.5 |
| n/a | 22.4 | 35.7 | 16.6 | 40.3 |
| n/a | 31.9 | 48.4 | 21.8 | 40.7 |
| n/a | 23.9 | 35.6 | 17.1 | 40.1 |
| n/a | 16.4 | 35.5 | 10.6 | 32.5 |
| n/a | 21.4 | 41.6 | 11.0 | 40.8 |
| n/a | 40.0 | 43.8 | 26.5 | 38.4 |
| n/a | 15.1 | 32.1 | 10.7 | 30.1 |
| n/a | 33.1 | 64.9 | 23.0 | 51.7 |
| n/a | 16.1 | 49.6 | 10.3 | 55.3 |
| n/a | 31.5 | 48.5 | 17.1 | 36.0 |
| n/a | 18.8 | 39.2 | 13.5 | 37.4 |
| n/a | 13.6 | 38.2 | 10.4 | 40.3 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 49.3 | 12.1 | 55.2 |
| n/a | 13.1 | 22.3 | 10.7 | 29.6 |
| n/a | 17.9 | 39.3 | 12.0 | 36.5 |
| n/a | 61.1 | 82.8 | 51.3 | 69.4 |
| n/a | 31.8 | 39.2 | 20.2 | 37.3 |
| n/a | 25.2 | 64.0 | 20.2 | 57.5 |
| n/a | 15.3 | 47.8 | 11.0 | 46.5 |
| n/a | 24.8 | 25.9 | 12.4 | 24.1 |
| n/a | 32.2 | 60.6 | 28.9 | 43.8 |
| n/a | 28.2 | 65.4 | 22.5 | 60.7 |
| n/a | 39.8 | 68.0 | 26.4 | 57.7 |
| n/a | 41.5 | 56.3 | 26.1 | 40.5 |
| n/a | 43.2 | 45.6 | 30.3 | 37.8 |
| n/a | 22.5 | 41.3 | 17.5 | 35.3 |
| n/a | 24.1 | 56.5 | 17.1 | 56.6 |
| n/a | 22.7 | 49.5 | 14.5 | 49.4 |
| n/a | 39.8 | 55.6 | 26.7 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 36.8 | 63.8 | 29.4 | 50.7 |
| n/a | 43.9 | 78.3 | 34.2 | 69.2 |
| n/a | 23.8 | 31.3 | 16.6 | 31.7 |
| n/a | 25.8 | 37.6 | 17.2 | 31.5 |
| n/a | 23.3 | 40.1 | 17.7 | 34.1 |
| n/a | 28.8 | 61.8 | 21.4 | 59.3 |
| n/a | 38.5 | 73.9 | 28.5 | 64.9 |
| n/a | 19.6 | 44.4 | 14.1 | 45.7 |
| n/a | 20.9 | 33.9 | 15.3 | 32.7 |
| n/a | 19.3 | 28.6 | 11.3 | 32.9 |
| n/a | 22.4 | 45.1 | 15.5 | 36.6 |
| n/a | 16.6 | 39.4 | 11.5 | 37.9 |
| n/a | 24.6 | 38.8 | 16.1 | 41.5 |
| n/a | 44.8 | 68.8 | 34.1 | 59.4 |
| n/a | 17.7 | 36.7 | 10.3 | 36.1 |
| n/a | 29.0 | 54.6 | 17.4 | 53.2 |
| n/a | 32.4 | 44.4 | 27.0 | 46.2 |
| n/a | 40.9 | 42.8 | 29.0 | 32.4 |
| n/a | 24.7 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 24.2 |
| n/a | 15.7 | 30.1 | 11.5 | 41.7 |
| n/a | 64.2 | 78.7 | 52.4 | 57.9 |
| n/a | 60.3 | 64.7 | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | 47.0 | 57.0 | 24.3 | 39.2 |
| n/a | 26.1 | 10.4 | 14.2 | 17.9 |
| n/a | 57.5 | 58.6 | 38.8 | 49.3 |
| n/a | 25.7 | 40.8 | 14.4 | 49.7 |
| n/a | 24.9 | 57.6 | 12.8 | 67.7 |
| n/a | 12.4 | 25.5 | 11.9 | 37.4 |
| n/a | 43.7 | 31.5 | 26.7 | 25.9 |
| n/a | 26.6 | 31.8 | 17.6 | 28.1 |
| n/a | 28.1 | 23.2 | 13.5 | 28.3 |
| n/a | 62.0 | 46.4 | 51.9 | 32.6 |
| n/a | 50.9 | 62.5 | 42.6 | 48.6 |
| n/a | 36.1 | 23.9 | 26.6 | 27.4 |
| n/a | 22.0 | 30.3 | 13.5 | 34.8 |
| n/a | 33.6 | 51.1 | 23.8 | 40.1 |
| n/a | 52.8 | 56.6 | 31.2 | 52.2 |
| n/a | 42.7 | 49.6 | 34.5 | 39.3 |
| n/a | 64.7 | 65.1 | 43.6 | 49.4 |
| n/a | 47.7 | 43.6 | 34.9 | 37.3 |
| n/a | 26.4 | 45.6 | 16.1 | 50.5 |
| n/a | 31.3 | 21.4 | 19.9 | 20.2 |
| n/a | 20.1 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 22.5 |
| n/a | 20.4 | 15.3 | 15.4 | 24.1 |
| n/a | 49.5 | 58.5 | 19.5 | 55.1 |
| n/a | 49.3 | 59.6 | 36.4 | 44.0 |
| n/a | 53.0 | 59.1 | 39.5 | 42.5 |
| n/a | 19.3 | 43.1 | 16.2 | 55.8 |
| n/a | 26.1 | 17.1 | 13.2 | 23.8 |
| n/a | 20.1 | 21.1 | 14.6 | 29.3 |
| n/a | 32.3 | 37.5 | 22.0 | 32.3 |
| n/a | 51.7 | 43.2 | 31.2 | 36.4 |
| n/a | 19.4 | 17.9 | 12.5 | 24.2 |
| n/a | 31.3 | 39.2 | 21.0 | 29.3 |
| n/a | 28.7 | 33.3 | 18.7 | 30.4 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 25.1 | 13.5 | 33.5 |
| n/a | 18.2 | 36.4 | 15.4 | 42.1 |
| n/a | 56.5 | 60.8 | 36.8 | 35.5 |
| n/a | 41.6 | 41.5 | 30.3 | 39.4 |
| n/a | 31.5 | 17.9 | 19.9 | 26.4 |
| n/a | 62.8 | 72.6 | 57.1 | 61.7 |
| n/a | 19.3 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 31.0 |
| n/a | 25.6 | 47.4 | 18.3 | 55.9 |
| n/a | 24.7 | 17.6 | 19.5 | 19.9 |
| n/a | 34.5 | 38.1 | 18.8 | 35.4 |
| n/a | 54.2 | 64.3 | 42.5 | 48.5 |
| n/a | 31.3 | 51.9 | 19.6 | 51.5 |
| n/a | 52.1 | 66.7 | 43.7 | 41.5 |
| n/a | 64.9 | 75.4 | 48.5 | 60.5 |
| n/a | 27.2 | 21.3 | 13.4 | 30.5 |
| n/a | 55.0 | 69.2 | 48.3 | 54.1 |
| n/a | 37.9 | 31.8 | 31.7 | 29.8 |
| n/a | 24.9 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 20.3 |
| n/a | 33.2 | 39.2 | 21.6 | 38.5 |
| n/a | 25.3 | 16.6 | 15.5 | 25.5 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 39.9 | 54.8 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 29.6 | 63.4 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 27.5 | 51.6 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 33.8 | 59.7 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 27.6 | 61.7 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 26.2 | 59.5 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 32.8 | 57.6 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 19.0 | 59.0 |
| n/a | 27.5 | 51.0 | 18.6 | 48.6 |
| n/a | 39.7 | 66.5 | 29.5 | 61.9 |
| n/a | 33.0 | 44.5 | 16.6 | 46.2 |
| n/a | 48.8 | 60.6 | 38.7 | 58.1 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 29.9 |
| n/a | 29.6 | 26.1 | 17.7 | 32.8 |
| n/a | 15.2 | 21.2 | 8.4 | 36.2 |
| n/a | 13.6 | 16.0 | 7.7 | 42.9 |
| n/a | 27.0 | 32.9 | 17.6 | 45.6 |
| n/a | 20.6 | 26.9 | 13.2 | 46.1 |
| n/a | 28.3 | 30.2 | 20.1 | 25.9 |
| n/a | 40.3 | 33.4 | 27.9 | 33.1 |
| n/a | 16.8 | 24.7 | 10.9 | 39.1 |
| n/a | 10.8 | 28.4 | 8.4 | 43.8 |
| n/a | 10.7 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 40.4 |
| n/a | 29.7 | 40.1 | 21.0 | 35.9 |
| n/a | 31.3 | 35.8 | 21.2 | 52.4 |
| n/a | 27.9 | 27.9 | 12.4 | 45.5 |
| n/a | 21.3 | 65.5 | 12.9 | 67.1 |
| n/a | 15.3 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 36.7 |
| n/a | 13.4 | 23.2 | 9.8 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 23.5 | 22.8 | 10.1 | 40.3 |
| n/a | 11.0 | 30.3 | 7.3 | 44.5 |
| n/a | 12.1 | 21.7 | 8.4 | 38.3 |
| n/a | 12.2 | 30.7 | 8.2 | 40.6 |
| n/a | 21.1 | 31.3 | 12.7 | 51.6 |
| n/a | 20.5 | 29.5 | 13.6 | 41.2 |
| n/a | 12.5 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 30.3 |
| n/a | 33.8 | 36.2 | 23.1 | 40.8 |
| n/a | 15.1 | 26.8 | 12.8 | 42.9 |
| n/a | 19.2 | 40.6 | 16.9 | 55.1 |
| n/a | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 32.1 |
| n/a | 27.8 | 37.6 | 16.6 | 42.2 |
| n/a | 48.9 | 61.0 | 41.7 | 61.1 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 24.7 | 10.6 | 44.0 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 43.6 |
| n/a | 13.9 | 35.5 | 10.2 | 49.8 |
| n/a | 35.4 | 38.2 | 20.8 | 45.9 |
| n/a | 23.4 | 34.1 | 13.7 | 44.8 |
| n/a | 37.1 | 34.3 | 26.3 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 38.6 | 40.8 | 25.5 | 50.7 |
| n/a | 35.6 | 26.3 | 18.9 | 29.8 |
| n/a | 34.8 | 28.5 | 24.2 | 24.6 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 23.0 | 8.9 | 47.6 |
| n/a | 29.8 | 49.3 | 15.7 | 51.8 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 25.9 | 9.4 | 47.4 |
| n/a | 50.9 | 34.2 | 33.1 | 33.0 |
| n/a | 26.7 | 45.4 | 15.1 | 54.5 |
| n/a | 32.0 | 24.3 | 22.9 | 26.1 |
| n/a | 40.8 | 40.8 | 27.4 | 46.7 |
| n/a | 42.7 | 48.2 | 31.0 | 43.9 |
| n/a | 35.3 | 31.1 | 12.2 | 44.3 |
| n/a | 16.6 | 19.4 | 10.5 | 33.7 |
| n/a | 16.5 | 20.0 | 8.9 | 39.5 |
| n/a | 11.1 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 37.6 |
| n/a | 23.3 | 27.6 | 15.7 | 46.0 |
| n/a | 35.0 | 20.9 | 16.2 | 31.7 |
| n/a | 11.5 | 17.1 | 9.2 | 35.9 |
| n/a | 11.2 | 18.7 | 8.4 | 34.7 |
| n/a | 8.9 | 23.0 | 6.9 | 40.1 |
| n/a | 10.4 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 32.2 |
| n/a | 16.7 | 40.1 | 10.7 | 59.2 |
| n/a | 24.4 | 48.9 | 16.2 | 49.4 |
| n/a | 18.6 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 27.6 |
| n/a | 21.2 | 29.6 | 10.9 | 31.6 |
| n/a | 24.3 | 24.4 | 14.1 | 33.8 |
| n/a | 13.0 | 33.9 | 9.5 | 48.4 |
| n/a | 15.7 | 15.0 | 9.4 | 37.6 |
| n/a | 26.3 | 61.3 | 21.3 | 50.9 |
| n/a | 19.8 | 22.2 | 12.5 | 34.3 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 30.6 |
| n/a | 15.8 | 36.6 | 11.3 | 46.6 |
| n/a | 36.1 | 31.7 | 19.3 | 31.0 |
| n/a | 32.5 | 35.4 | 25.4 | 38.2 |
| n/a | 15.5 | 45.3 | 9.5 | 52.4 |
| n/a | 14.4 | 27.3 | 8.6 | 41.6 |
| n/a | 13.0 | 56.2 | 11.7 | 59.0 |
| n/a | 24.6 | 32.1 | 16.0 | 36.3 |
| n/a | 16.0 | 26.2 | 10.2 | 39.1 |
| n/a | 23.8 | 29.3 | 16.5 | 34.9 |
| n/a | 24.2 | 22.1 | 13.8 | 31.3 |
| n/a | 12.3 | 21.8 | 6.4 | 36.4 |
| n/a | 37.7 | 59.1 | 25.0 | 49.8 |
| n/a | 29.6 | 41.7 | 25.0 | 50.4 |
| n/a | 12.0 | 17.8 | 7.7 | 42.8 |
| n/a | 41.1 | 30.3 | 27.0 | 24.4 |
| n/a | 47.4 | 69.3 | 39.8 | 56.1 |
| n/a | 23.4 | 53.8 | 10.1 | 64.7 |
| n/a | 22.5 | 84.8 | 16.6 | 66.7 |
| n/a | 9.1 | 24.2 | 10.4 | 42.8 |
| n/a | 13.9 | 27.4 | 10.0 | 38.4 |
| n/a | 15.5 | 24.8 | 11.4 | 33.4 |
| n/a | 38.5 | 37.1 | 32.0 | 25.2 |
| n/a | 17.9 | 26.7 | 8.1 | 41.8 |
| n/a | 36.2 | 32.9 | 20.6 | 29.8 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 25.0 | 6.8 | 43.2 |
| n/a | 15.3 | 37.0 | 12.8 | 40.8 |
| n/a | 18.4 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 32.8 |
| n/a | 36.4 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 25.7 |
| n/a | 15.1 | 38.0 | 12.1 | 44.8 |
| n/a | 17.2 | 25.0 | 11.6 | 40.1 |
| n/a | 14.8 | 46.1 | 9.6 | 54.5 |
| n/a | 22.8 | 70.6 | 17.8 | 57.6 |
| n/a | 30.8 | 65.8 | 19.2 | 37.1 |
| n/a | 14.7 | 44.3 | 12.6 | 45.6 |
| n/a | 15.7 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 30.7 |
| n/a | 27.2 | 25.3 | 13.6 | 30.6 |
| n/a | 16.3 | 28.2 | 9.8 | 43.7 |
| n/a | 13.5 | 27.9 | 10.1 | 45.9 |
| n/a | 14.5 | 28.7 | 9.0 | 39.8 |
| n/a | 24.2 | 17.5 | 10.4 | 33.4 |
| n/a | 49.9 | 48.4 | 36.2 | 28.9 |
| n/a | 25.9 | 28.9 | 15.8 | 38.8 |
| n/a | 57.1 | 33.3 | 34.6 | 19.4 |
| n/a | 17.8 | 13.6 | 10.3 | 35.8 |
| n/a | 24.9 | 18.6 | 12.9 | 31.1 |
| n/a | 17.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 24.6 |
| n/a | 32.4 | 36.9 | 23.8 | 35.2 |
| n/a | 18.8 | 18.1 | 10.6 | 33.7 |
| n/a | 16.4 | 30.8 | 10.6 | 41.1 |
| n/a | 37.8 | 35.5 | 17.6 | 41.8 |
| n/a | 24.6 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 26.6 |
| n/a | 27.3 | 28.0 | 18.7 | 27.7 |
| n/a | 10.3 | 67.7 | 9.8 | 78.5 |
| n/a | 17.0 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 35.8 |
| n/a | 38.0 | 26.8 | 21.1 | 34.4 |
| n/a | 20.8 | 22.5 | 13.5 | 42.9 |

The first 500 of 3115 rows; every row is in https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/vote_by_college.json.

Views: 2024; 2000.

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The number of counties in each group is in the tooltip.

Note: Groups are formed within each election, so a county can move between groups from one election to the next. Counties without college share are left out of that election. Dots are all the same size, so the vote-weighted lines, which pool votes, can lie away from the middle of the dots; the file names only the largest counties, to keep it small.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/vote_by_college.json

### Table 4. Counting each county once, the 2000 slope inside large counties and inside other counties each had an interval that includes zero, and by 2024 both were above zero

Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share inside large counties and inside other counties, with the all-county slope, 2000 to 2024, counting each county once or by two-party votes

| basis | conf_high | conf_low | estimate | measure | n_units | series | year |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: |
| County-equal | 2.99 | 0.089 | 1.56 | Slope | 3,114 | All counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 4.58 | 1.96 | 3.30 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 6.15 | 4.06 | 5.11 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 6.36 | 3.93 | 5.15 | Slope | 3,112 | All counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 9.36 | 6.48 | 7.95 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 10.03 | 7.31 | 8.73 | Slope | 3,105 | All counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 9.79 | 7.24 | 8.59 | Slope | 3,103 | All counties | 2024 |
| County-equal | 4.10 | −2.89 | 0.564 | Slope | 76 | Large counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 5.94 | −1.09 | 2.37 | Slope | 96 | Large counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 5.61 | −0.223 | 2.70 | Slope | 110 | Large counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 5.30 | −0.788 | 2.39 | Slope | 107 | Large counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 7.31 | 1.68 | 4.69 | Slope | 107 | Large counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 7.43 | 2.70 | 5.15 | Slope | 139 | Large counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 8.05 | 3.42 | 5.85 | Slope | 135 | Large counties | 2024 |
| County-equal | 1.99 | −0.763 | 0.688 | Slope | 3,038 | Other counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 3.62 | 0.960 | 2.38 | Slope | 3,017 | Other counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 5.30 | 3.10 | 4.23 | Slope | 3,003 | Other counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 5.43 | 2.84 | 4.19 | Slope | 3,005 | Other counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 8.39 | 5.26 | 6.89 | Slope | 3,006 | Other counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 9.17 | 6.12 | 7.72 | Slope | 2,966 | Other counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 9.13 | 6.23 | 7.76 | Slope | 2,968 | Other counties | 2024 |
| County-equal | 0.196 | 0.005 | 0.099 | Correlation | 3,114 | All counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 0.304 | 0.118 | 0.211 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 0.395 | 0.231 | 0.310 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 0.398 | 0.219 | 0.305 | Correlation | 3,112 | All counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 0.564 | 0.355 | 0.460 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 0.626 | 0.427 | 0.530 | Correlation | 3,105 | All counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 0.656 | 0.452 | 0.559 | Correlation | 3,103 | All counties | 2024 |
| County-equal | 0.325 | −0.232 | 0.043 | Correlation | 76 | Large counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 0.431 | −0.084 | 0.178 | Correlation | 96 | Large counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 0.418 | −0.017 | 0.203 | Correlation | 110 | Large counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 0.402 | −0.056 | 0.177 | Correlation | 107 | Large counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 0.549 | 0.120 | 0.346 | Correlation | 107 | Large counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 0.584 | 0.204 | 0.403 | Correlation | 139 | Large counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 0.636 | 0.258 | 0.465 | Correlation | 135 | Large counties | 2024 |
| County-equal | 0.133 | −0.043 | 0.043 | Correlation | 3,038 | Other counties | 2000 |
| County-equal | 0.242 | 0.056 | 0.148 | Correlation | 3,017 | Other counties | 2004 |
| County-equal | 0.333 | 0.167 | 0.247 | Correlation | 3,003 | Other counties | 2008 |
| County-equal | 0.338 | 0.150 | 0.240 | Correlation | 3,005 | Other counties | 2012 |
| County-equal | 0.509 | 0.277 | 0.393 | Correlation | 3,006 | Other counties | 2016 |
| County-equal | 0.575 | 0.345 | 0.462 | Correlation | 2,966 | Other counties | 2020 |
| County-equal | 0.610 | 0.379 | 0.497 | Correlation | 2,968 | Other counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 5.14 | 2.45 | 3.87 | Slope | 3,114 | All counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 6.38 | 3.90 | 5.18 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 7.02 | 4.73 | 5.94 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 7.00 | 4.89 | 5.99 | Slope | 3,112 | All counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 10.26 | 8.23 | 9.23 | Slope | 3,113 | All counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 10.30 | 8.52 | 9.35 | Slope | 3,105 | All counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 10.12 | 8.42 | 9.22 | Slope | 3,103 | All counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 2.96 | −3.39 | 0.150 | Slope | 76 | Large counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 4.92 | −1.55 | 2.00 | Slope | 96 | Large counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 4.46 | −0.642 | 2.14 | Slope | 110 | Large counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 4.10 | −0.929 | 1.85 | Slope | 107 | Large counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 6.23 | 1.74 | 3.99 | Slope | 107 | Large counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 6.98 | 2.91 | 4.82 | Slope | 139 | Large counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 7.70 | 3.56 | 5.54 | Slope | 135 | Large counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 3.75 | 1.26 | 2.42 | Slope | 3,038 | Other counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 4.91 | 2.29 | 3.54 | Slope | 3,017 | Other counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 5.44 | 3.45 | 4.43 | Slope | 3,003 | Other counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 5.32 | 3.30 | 4.28 | Slope | 3,005 | Other counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 8.70 | 6.68 | 7.66 | Slope | 3,006 | Other counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 9.14 | 7.35 | 8.25 | Slope | 2,966 | Other counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 9.22 | 7.52 | 8.35 | Slope | 2,968 | Other counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.365 | 0.189 | 0.282 | Correlation | 3,114 | All counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.453 | 0.297 | 0.378 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.491 | 0.357 | 0.427 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.478 | 0.351 | 0.415 | Correlation | 3,112 | All counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.637 | 0.528 | 0.577 | Correlation | 3,113 | All counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.693 | 0.594 | 0.637 | Correlation | 3,105 | All counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.713 | 0.621 | 0.663 | Correlation | 3,103 | All counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.213 | −0.257 | 0.011 | Correlation | 76 | Large counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.343 | −0.118 | 0.145 | Correlation | 96 | Large counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.333 | −0.050 | 0.161 | Correlation | 110 | Large counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.309 | −0.067 | 0.137 | Correlation | 107 | Large counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.464 | 0.125 | 0.297 | Correlation | 107 | Large counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.561 | 0.236 | 0.396 | Correlation | 139 | Large counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.611 | 0.292 | 0.458 | Correlation | 135 | Large counties | 2024 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.287 | 0.099 | 0.192 | Correlation | 3,038 | Other counties | 2000 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.367 | 0.175 | 0.272 | Correlation | 3,017 | Other counties | 2004 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.402 | 0.249 | 0.325 | Correlation | 3,003 | Other counties | 2008 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.384 | 0.229 | 0.307 | Correlation | 3,005 | Other counties | 2012 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.586 | 0.432 | 0.511 | Correlation | 3,006 | Other counties | 2016 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.650 | 0.512 | 0.586 | Correlation | 2,966 | Other counties | 2020 |
| Vote-weighted | 0.673 | 0.537 | 0.612 | Correlation | 2,968 | Other counties | 2024 |

Views: Slope, county-equal (basis = County-equal, measure = Slope); Slope, vote-weighted (basis = Vote-weighted, measure = Slope); Correlation, county-equal (basis = County-equal, measure = Correlation).

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods.

Note: Large counties: 250,000 or more two-party votes in the election; 76 counties in 2000 and 135 in 2024.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/size_classes.json

### Table 5. Vote-weighted, the slope with state and race held fixed went from 0.5 in 2000 to 7.6 in 2024

Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share alone, with race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, and within states with race and ethnicity held fixed, 2000 to 2024

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | specification | weighting | year |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | ---: |
| 5.14 | 2.45 | 3.87 | 3,114 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 6.38 | 3.90 | 5.18 | 3,113 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.02 | 4.73 | 5.94 | 3,113 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 7.00 | 4.89 | 5.99 | 3,112 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 10.26 | 8.23 | 9.23 | 3,113 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 10.30 | 8.52 | 9.35 | 3,105 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 10.12 | 8.42 | 9.22 | 3,103 | College share alone | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 3.39 | −0.120 | 2.04 | 3,114 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 4.72 | 1.71 | 3.46 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 5.30 | 2.82 | 4.13 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 5.11 | 2.62 | 3.96 | 3,112 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 8.32 | 6.26 | 7.20 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 8.94 | 7.00 | 7.85 | 3,105 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 8.94 | 7.03 | 7.84 | 3,103 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 3.62 | 1.24 | 2.41 | 3,114 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 5.18 | 2.83 | 3.97 | 3,113 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 5.49 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 3,113 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 5.37 | 3.49 | 4.45 | 3,112 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 8.85 | 7.05 | 7.90 | 3,113 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 9.13 | 7.43 | 8.19 | 3,105 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 9.09 | 7.58 | 8.26 | 3,103 | Within states | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 1.55 | −0.698 | 0.496 | 3,114 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 3.21 | 0.969 | 2.15 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 4.17 | 2.19 | 3.17 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 3.77 | 1.88 | 2.80 | 3,112 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 7.40 | 5.64 | 6.44 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 8.23 | 6.59 | 7.35 | 3,105 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 8.35 | 6.87 | 7.55 | 3,103 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 5.14 | 2.45 | 3.87 | 3,114 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 4.80 | 2.55 | 3.81 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 6.42 | 3.84 | 5.14 | 3,113 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 5.70 | 3.63 | 4.76 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.27 | 4.80 | 6.04 | 3,113 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 6.27 | 4.36 | 5.39 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 7.44 | 5.03 | 6.21 | 3,111 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 6.45 | 4.58 | 5.58 | 3,104 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 11.61 | 8.96 | 10.19 | 3,111 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 9.79 | 7.80 | 8.77 | 3,105 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 12.11 | 9.65 | 10.79 | 3,103 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 10.12 | 8.35 | 9.17 | 3,105 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 12.20 | 9.71 | 10.86 | 3,102 | 2000 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 10.12 | 8.42 | 9.22 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 2.99 | 0.089 | 1.56 | 3,114 | College share alone | County-equal | 2000 |
| 4.58 | 1.96 | 3.30 | 3,113 | College share alone | County-equal | 2004 |
| 6.15 | 4.06 | 5.11 | 3,113 | College share alone | County-equal | 2008 |
| 6.36 | 3.93 | 5.15 | 3,112 | College share alone | County-equal | 2012 |
| 9.36 | 6.48 | 7.95 | 3,113 | College share alone | County-equal | 2016 |
| 10.03 | 7.31 | 8.73 | 3,105 | College share alone | County-equal | 2020 |
| 9.79 | 7.24 | 8.59 | 3,103 | College share alone | County-equal | 2024 |
| 2.28 | −1.51 | 0.814 | 3,114 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2000 |
| 4.10 | 0.763 | 2.67 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2004 |
| 5.63 | 3.01 | 4.38 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2008 |
| 5.66 | 3.10 | 4.44 | 3,112 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2012 |
| 8.60 | 6.43 | 7.52 | 3,113 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2016 |
| 9.48 | 7.50 | 8.51 | 3,105 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2020 |
| 9.35 | 7.49 | 8.46 | 3,103 | Race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2024 |
| 2.56 | −0.203 | 1.19 | 3,114 | Within states | County-equal | 2000 |
| 3.73 | 1.28 | 2.47 | 3,113 | Within states | County-equal | 2004 |
| 4.53 | 2.39 | 3.43 | 3,113 | Within states | County-equal | 2008 |
| 4.46 | 2.24 | 3.32 | 3,112 | Within states | County-equal | 2012 |
| 7.83 | 5.42 | 6.61 | 3,113 | Within states | County-equal | 2016 |
| 8.40 | 6.30 | 7.33 | 3,105 | Within states | County-equal | 2020 |
| 8.32 | 6.25 | 7.28 | 3,103 | Within states | County-equal | 2024 |
| 2.13 | −0.716 | 0.731 | 3,114 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2000 |
| 3.78 | 0.917 | 2.30 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2004 |
| 4.94 | 2.53 | 3.65 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2008 |
| 4.81 | 2.48 | 3.58 | 3,112 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2012 |
| 8.07 | 5.91 | 6.92 | 3,113 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2016 |
| 8.72 | 6.91 | 7.77 | 3,105 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2020 |
| 8.49 | 6.79 | 7.61 | 3,103 | Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed | County-equal | 2024 |
| 2.99 | 0.089 | 1.56 | 3,114 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2000 |
| 2.13 | −0.178 | 1.01 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2000 |
| 4.75 | 2.03 | 3.44 | 3,113 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2004 |
| 3.48 | 1.19 | 2.39 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2004 |
| 6.75 | 4.54 | 5.65 | 3,113 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2008 |
| 5.00 | 3.04 | 4.03 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2008 |
| 7.34 | 4.73 | 6.07 | 3,111 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2012 |
| 5.37 | 3.02 | 4.24 | 3,104 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2012 |
| 11.46 | 8.41 | 9.99 | 3,111 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2016 |
| 8.41 | 5.51 | 6.99 | 3,105 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2016 |
| 12.90 | 10.14 | 11.55 | 3,103 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2020 |
| 9.61 | 6.87 | 8.30 | 3,105 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2020 |
| 13.10 | 10.51 | 11.82 | 3,102 | 2000 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2024 |
| 9.79 | 7.24 | 8.59 | 3,103 | 2024 college share held fixed | County-equal | 2024 |

Views: Vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (weighting = County-equal).

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/specifications.json

### Table 6. The slope was higher in 2024 than in 2000 in all four groups of counties by white share, with the largest point change among counties 90% white or more

Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share inside four groups of counties by non-Hispanic white share of residents at the election, 2000 to 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | group | n_units | weighting | year |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 7.27 | −1.22 | 4.38 | Under 50% white | 253 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 8.39 | 2.10 | 5.89 | Under 50% white | 284 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.14 | 2.70 | 5.13 | Under 50% white | 309 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 6.19 | 2.04 | 4.51 | Under 50% white | 339 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 7.78 | 4.81 | 6.57 | Under 50% white | 360 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 7.51 | 4.44 | 6.19 | Under 50% white | 386 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 7.28 | 4.45 | 6.16 | Under 50% white | 404 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 6.13 | 0.488 | 3.59 | Under 50% white | 253 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 7.84 | 2.91 | 5.49 | Under 50% white | 284 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 7.67 | 3.61 | 5.63 | Under 50% white | 309 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 7.65 | 2.87 | 5.42 | Under 50% white | 339 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 9.37 | 5.13 | 7.44 | Under 50% white | 360 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 9.96 | 4.84 | 7.56 | Under 50% white | 386 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 9.36 | 4.44 | 7.29 | Under 50% white | 404 | County-equal | 2024 |
| 5.17 | 1.95 | 3.49 | 50 to under 75% white | 635 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 6.14 | 3.51 | 4.71 | 50 to under 75% white | 661 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.39 | 4.45 | 5.93 | 50 to under 75% white | 710 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 7.18 | 4.23 | 5.71 | 50 to under 75% white | 740 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 9.66 | 7.13 | 8.36 | 50 to under 75% white | 767 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 10.18 | 7.67 | 8.99 | 50 to under 75% white | 816 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 10.43 | 7.70 | 9.14 | 50 to under 75% white | 855 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 4.46 | 1.12 | 2.85 | 50 to under 75% white | 635 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 6.24 | 3.43 | 4.78 | 50 to under 75% white | 661 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 8.39 | 5.85 | 7.01 | 50 to under 75% white | 710 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 7.59 | 5.07 | 6.23 | 50 to under 75% white | 740 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 9.93 | 7.09 | 8.45 | 50 to under 75% white | 767 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 10.65 | 7.93 | 9.25 | 50 to under 75% white | 816 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 10.21 | 7.71 | 8.95 | 50 to under 75% white | 855 | County-equal | 2024 |
| 5.44 | 1.41 | 3.51 | 75 to under 90% white | 724 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 6.73 | 3.13 | 5.08 | 75 to under 90% white | 784 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 6.69 | 3.24 | 5.11 | 75 to under 90% white | 808 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 6.60 | 2.95 | 5.00 | 75 to under 90% white | 841 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 9.53 | 6.50 | 8.11 | 75 to under 90% white | 900 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 9.61 | 7.25 | 8.43 | 75 to under 90% white | 998 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 9.48 | 7.06 | 8.25 | 75 to under 90% white | 1,057 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 4.29 | 1.38 | 2.85 | 75 to under 90% white | 724 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 6.18 | 3.23 | 4.82 | 75 to under 90% white | 784 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 7.58 | 4.93 | 6.36 | 75 to under 90% white | 808 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 7.63 | 4.92 | 6.35 | 75 to under 90% white | 841 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 10.13 | 8.09 | 9.12 | 75 to under 90% white | 900 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 10.62 | 8.82 | 9.71 | 75 to under 90% white | 998 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 10.35 | 8.55 | 9.41 | 75 to under 90% white | 1,057 | County-equal | 2024 |
| 2.94 | −0.508 | 1.15 | 90% or more white | 1,502 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 4.76 | 0.371 | 2.42 | 90% or more white | 1,384 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 7.60 | 2.71 | 5.10 | 90% or more white | 1,286 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 8.69 | 3.90 | 6.34 | 90% or more white | 1,192 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 12.09 | 7.50 | 9.88 | 90% or more white | 1,086 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 13.21 | 7.54 | 10.38 | 90% or more white | 905 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 13.77 | 7.69 | 10.84 | 90% or more white | 787 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 2.13 | −2.22 | 0.068 | 90% or more white | 1,502 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 3.73 | −0.633 | 1.54 | 90% or more white | 1,384 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 6.45 | 1.80 | 4.13 | 90% or more white | 1,286 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 7.40 | 2.03 | 4.71 | 90% or more white | 1,192 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 10.78 | 5.35 | 8.03 | 90% or more white | 1,086 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 12.05 | 5.78 | 8.98 | 90% or more white | 905 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 11.81 | 5.24 | 8.71 | 90% or more white | 787 | County-equal | 2024 |

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. Groups are formed from the non-Hispanic white share at each election, so a county can change group.

Note: Counties per group in 2000 and 2024: under 50% white, 253 and 404; 50% to under 75%, 635 and 855; 75% to under 90%, 724 and 1,057; 90% or more, 1,502 and 787.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/white_groups.json

### Table 7. The vote-weighted slope was positive in every one of the 39 states in 2024, against 29 in 2000

Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share inside each state with at least 20 counties, 2000 and 2024, vote-weighted, with 95% intervals

| hi_2000 | hi_2024 | lo_2000 | lo_2024 | n_units | slope_2000 | slope_2024 | state | weighting |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| 4.25 | 12.24 | −6.92 | 1.34 | 67 | −1.34 | 6.79 | Alabama | Vote-weighted |
| 13.48 | 19.68 | −12.63 | 0.982 | 75 | 0.425 | 10.33 | Arkansas | Vote-weighted |
| 11.81 | 9.90 | 3.16 | 5.28 | 58 | 7.49 | 7.59 | California | Vote-weighted |
| 7.60 | 14.37 | −3.08 | 1.89 | 64 | 2.26 | 8.13 | Colorado | Vote-weighted |
| 9.36 | 12.15 | 0.601 | 4.17 | 67 | 4.98 | 8.16 | Florida | Vote-weighted |
| 9.90 | 12.46 | −2.74 | 4.17 | 159 | 3.58 | 8.32 | Georgia | Vote-weighted |
| 8.05 | 13.60 | 4.30 | 6.56 | 44 | 6.17 | 10.08 | Idaho | Vote-weighted |
| 12.60 | 21.38 | −8.53 | 3.36 | 102 | 2.03 | 12.37 | Illinois | Vote-weighted |
| 7.35 | 16.66 | −9.34 | −3.48 | 92 | −0.995 | 6.59 | Indiana | Vote-weighted |
| 5.86 | 12.39 | 1.35 | 6.24 | 99 | 3.61 | 9.32 | Iowa | Vote-weighted |
| 5.74 | 13.32 | −5.26 | 1.08 | 105 | 0.241 | 7.20 | Kansas | Vote-weighted |
| 7.28 | 17.28 | −1.38 | 7.64 | 120 | 2.95 | 12.46 | Kentucky | Vote-weighted |
| 13.94 | 23.63 | −8.09 | −0.026 | 64 | 2.92 | 11.80 | Louisiana | Vote-weighted |
| 9.81 | 12.59 | −7.36 | −1.57 | 24 | 1.22 | 5.51 | Maryland | Vote-weighted |
| 4.57 | 10.15 | −6.20 | 1.34 | 83 | −0.812 | 5.74 | Michigan | Vote-weighted |
| 7.01 | 14.69 | 1.68 | 8.83 | 87 | 4.34 | 11.76 | Minnesota | Vote-weighted |
| 7.05 | 6.86 | −8.14 | −2.35 | 82 | −0.545 | 2.25 | Mississippi | Vote-weighted |
| 5.46 | 16.31 | 1.81 | 10.60 | 115 | 3.64 | 13.45 | Missouri | Vote-weighted |
| 8.07 | 14.05 | −4.05 | 3.24 | 56 | 2.01 | 8.64 | Montana | Vote-weighted |
| 11.30 | 20.28 | 3.98 | 9.52 | 93 | 7.64 | 14.90 | Nebraska | Vote-weighted |
| 1.35 | 6.84 | −9.13 | −4.96 | 21 | −3.89 | 0.942 | New Jersey | Vote-weighted |
| 11.83 | 15.93 | −2.57 | 5.33 | 33 | 4.63 | 10.63 | New Mexico | Vote-weighted |
| 15.46 | 14.71 | −8.09 | −1.12 | 62 | 3.68 | 6.79 | New York | Vote-weighted |
| 5.92 | 11.89 | 0.959 | 6.47 | 100 | 3.44 | 9.18 | North Carolina | Vote-weighted |
| 6.72 | 20.34 | −2.70 | −1.48 | 53 | 2.01 | 9.43 | North Dakota | Vote-weighted |
| 7.27 | 16.51 | −2.12 | 4.59 | 88 | 2.57 | 10.55 | Ohio | Vote-weighted |
| −2.06 | 18.15 | −6.05 | 8.21 | 77 | −4.06 | 13.18 | Oklahoma | Vote-weighted |
| 19.45 | 19.07 | 0.858 | 7.39 | 36 | 10.15 | 13.23 | Oregon | Vote-weighted |
| 7.90 | 12.77 | −5.45 | 6.25 | 67 | 1.23 | 9.51 | Pennsylvania | Vote-weighted |
| 8.05 | 8.64 | −10.77 | −0.770 | 46 | −1.36 | 3.93 | South Carolina | Vote-weighted |
| 8.01 | 10.23 | −2.92 | 1.17 | 65 | 2.55 | 5.70 | South Dakota | Vote-weighted |
| 7.22 | 18.79 | −5.77 | −0.834 | 95 | 0.726 | 8.98 | Tennessee | Vote-weighted |
| 2.84 | 11.09 | −5.23 | 2.76 | 254 | −1.20 | 6.92 | Texas | Vote-weighted |
| 11.47 | 18.18 | −13.16 | −4.08 | 29 | −0.844 | 7.05 | Utah | Vote-weighted |
| 3.36 | 8.88 | 0.238 | 5.81 | 133 | 1.80 | 7.35 | Virginia | Vote-weighted |
| 14.86 | 11.70 | 1.24 | 8.65 | 39 | 8.05 | 10.17 | Washington | Vote-weighted |
| 3.59 | 12.71 | −4.17 | 6.28 | 55 | −0.291 | 9.50 | West Virginia | Vote-weighted |
| 15.00 | 17.54 | −11.78 | −1.89 | 72 | 1.61 | 7.82 | Wisconsin | Vote-weighted |
| 8.04 | 15.78 | 3.21 | 6.61 | 23 | 5.62 | 11.19 | Wyoming | Vote-weighted |
| 1.13 | 6.80 | −8.94 | −3.22 | 67 | −3.90 | 1.79 | Alabama | County-equal |
| 1.32 | 10.30 | −9.57 | −0.588 | 75 | −4.12 | 4.85 | Arkansas | County-equal |
| 11.95 | 11.52 | 6.92 | 8.36 | 58 | 9.43 | 9.94 | California | County-equal |
| 6.89 | 12.04 | 2.32 | 8.40 | 64 | 4.61 | 10.22 | Colorado | County-equal |
| 6.07 | 10.24 | 0.225 | 5.77 | 67 | 3.15 | 8.00 | Florida | County-equal |
| 1.72 | 7.03 | −5.22 | 1.36 | 159 | −1.75 | 4.20 | Georgia | County-equal |
| 10.19 | 13.08 | 2.40 | 4.49 | 44 | 6.29 | 8.79 | Idaho | County-equal |
| 3.00 | 13.11 | −1.04 | 9.00 | 102 | 0.980 | 11.06 | Illinois | County-equal |
| 3.53 | 11.24 | −4.22 | 5.41 | 92 | −0.342 | 8.33 | Indiana | County-equal |
| 5.35 | 10.77 | −0.203 | 6.34 | 99 | 2.57 | 8.55 | Iowa | County-equal |
| 7.13 | 12.34 | 0.182 | 4.14 | 105 | 3.65 | 8.24 | Kansas | County-equal |
| 4.51 | 11.15 | −0.847 | 7.64 | 120 | 1.83 | 9.39 | Kentucky | County-equal |
| 6.18 | 14.00 | −5.89 | −0.050 | 64 | 0.147 | 6.97 | Louisiana | County-equal |
| 7.05 | 11.24 | 0.035 | 6.30 | 24 | 3.54 | 8.77 | Maryland | County-equal |
| 4.12 | 9.52 | −2.23 | 6.37 | 83 | 0.944 | 7.94 | Michigan | County-equal |
| 4.49 | 11.92 | −0.147 | 7.39 | 87 | 2.17 | 9.65 | Minnesota | County-equal |
| 2.14 | 3.05 | −6.67 | −5.03 | 82 | −2.26 | −0.988 | Mississippi | County-equal |
| 4.65 | 13.54 | 0.435 | 8.00 | 115 | 2.54 | 10.77 | Missouri | County-equal |
| 7.97 | 12.09 | −1.91 | 1.13 | 56 | 3.03 | 6.61 | Montana | County-equal |
| 6.62 | 11.06 | −3.30 | −0.415 | 93 | 1.66 | 5.32 | Nebraska | County-equal |
| 0.535 | 5.35 | −6.43 | −0.762 | 21 | −2.95 | 2.29 | New Jersey | County-equal |
| 11.60 | 12.67 | −7.84 | 2.12 | 33 | 1.88 | 7.40 | New Mexico | County-equal |
| 10.01 | 11.39 | 3.23 | 6.91 | 62 | 6.62 | 9.15 | New York | County-equal |
| 4.17 | 8.09 | −2.25 | 2.66 | 100 | 0.958 | 5.38 | North Carolina | County-equal |
| 7.72 | 11.88 | −4.56 | −9.19 | 53 | 1.58 | 1.34 | North Dakota | County-equal |
| 4.79 | 12.17 | −1.84 | 6.20 | 88 | 1.48 | 9.19 | Ohio | County-equal |
| −3.50 | 9.28 | −13.85 | 1.95 | 77 | −8.68 | 5.62 | Oklahoma | County-equal |
| 16.56 | 16.26 | 2.82 | 10.08 | 36 | 9.69 | 13.17 | Oregon | County-equal |
| 8.32 | 13.51 | 1.93 | 8.75 | 67 | 5.12 | 11.13 | Pennsylvania | County-equal |
| −1.12 | 2.56 | −14.77 | −6.26 | 46 | −7.94 | −1.85 | South Carolina | County-equal |
| 6.13 | 5.60 | −7.79 | −7.61 | 65 | −0.828 | −1.01 | South Dakota | County-equal |
| −0.877 | 11.72 | −6.73 | 3.37 | 95 | −3.80 | 7.55 | Tennessee | County-equal |
| −3.14 | 6.14 | −9.29 | 1.66 | 254 | −6.21 | 3.90 | Texas | County-equal |
| 10.29 | 12.33 | −7.18 | 5.39 | 29 | 1.55 | 8.86 | Utah | County-equal |
| 2.69 | 9.15 | −0.437 | 6.47 | 133 | 1.13 | 7.81 | Virginia | County-equal |
| 11.47 | 13.43 | 1.37 | 8.37 | 39 | 6.42 | 10.90 | Washington | County-equal |
| 4.10 | 10.47 | −6.09 | 7.28 | 55 | −0.995 | 8.87 | West Virginia | County-equal |
| 5.28 | 10.39 | −5.93 | 2.56 | 72 | −0.327 | 6.48 | Wisconsin | County-equal |
| 8.10 | 16.43 | 4.45 | 6.79 | 23 | 6.27 | 11.61 | Wyoming | County-equal |

Views: Vote-weighted (weighting = Vote-weighted); County-equal (weighting = County-equal).

Note: Intervals are HC3 robust and treat counties as independent; see Methods. States with fewer than 20 counties in either year, and Alaska, are left out.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/state_slopes.json

### Table 8. Counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority fell from 325 in 2000 to 93 in 2024

Each county by whether its college share is above the median of that election's counties and whether Democrats won a majority of its two-party vote, 2000 to 2024, Alaska excluded

| Election | County | College share (%) | Democratic share of two-party vote (%) | Two-party votes |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2000 | Pasco, FL | 13.1 | 50.4 | 138,183 |
| 2000 | Hidalgo, TX | 12.9 | 61.6 | 99,691 |
| 2000 | Trumbull, OH | 14.5 | 62.5 | 92,297 |
| 2000 | Jefferson, MO | 12.1 | 51.2 | 75,382 |
| 2000 | Muskegon, MI | 13.9 | 55.8 | 67,893 |
| 2000 | Hernando, FL | 12.7 | 51.6 | 63,306 |
| 2000 | Cameron, TX | 13.4 | 54.4 | 61,014 |
| 2000 | Monroe, MI | 14.3 | 52.2 | 60,495 |
| 2000 | Cambria, PA | 13.7 | 52.0 | 58,309 |
| 2000 | Bay, MI | 14.2 | 56.1 | 50,401 |
| 2004 | Hidalgo, TX | 14.0 | 55.0 | 113,300 |
| 2004 | Trumbull, OH | 15.2 | 61.9 | 107,650 |
| 2004 | Muskegon, MI | 15.0 | 55.6 | 79,584 |
| 2004 | Fayette, PA | 12.5 | 53.8 | 54,165 |
| 2004 | Wyandotte, KS | 13.4 | 66.1 | 52,842 |
| 2004 | Cumberland, NJ | 12.7 | 53.4 | 52,237 |
| 2004 | Ashtabula, OH | 11.8 | 53.4 | 45,098 |
| 2004 | Laporte, IN | 15.1 | 50.2 | 42,030 |
| 2004 | Cowlitz, WA | 14.1 | 51.6 | 41,806 |
| 2004 | Webb, TX | 15.1 | 57.1 | 41,407 |
| 2008 | Stanislaus, CA | 15.8 | 50.9 | 157,776 |
| 2008 | Hidalgo, TX | 15.1 | 69.5 | 129,929 |
| 2008 | Trumbull, OH | 16.0 | 61.5 | 104,309 |
| 2008 | Jefferson, MO | 16.0 | 51.3 | 104,271 |
| 2008 | Muskegon, MI | 16.2 | 64.9 | 82,966 |
| 2008 | St. Clair, MI | 14.9 | 51.4 | 79,213 |
| 2008 | Cameron, TX | 14.6 | 64.5 | 75,151 |
| 2008 | Merced, CA | 12.2 | 54.2 | 62,735 |
| 2008 | Cumberland, NJ | 13.6 | 61.0 | 57,279 |
| 2008 | Madison, IN | 16.5 | 53.3 | 56,555 |
| 2012 | Stanislaus, CA | 16.4 | 51.4 | 151,183 |
| 2012 | Hidalgo, TX | 16.5 | 71.1 | 137,834 |
| 2012 | Trumbull, OH | 17.2 | 61.7 | 99,951 |
| 2012 | Cameron, TX | 15.8 | 65.7 | 76,074 |
| 2012 | Muskegon, MI | 17.4 | 59.0 | 75,320 |
| 2012 | Merced, CA | 13.1 | 54.5 | 60,586 |
| 2012 | Cumberland, NJ | 14.2 | 62.2 | 54,713 |
| 2012 | Wyandotte, KS | 15.8 | 68.9 | 49,798 |
| 2012 | Webb, TX | 17.2 | 77.2 | 48,675 |
| 2012 | Oswego, NY | 17.0 | 54.1 | 43,495 |
| 2016 | San Joaquin, CA | 18.7 | 56.8 | 191,036 |
| 2016 | Hidalgo, TX | 18.4 | 71.0 | 167,451 |
| 2016 | Stanislaus, CA | 17.1 | 50.7 | 152,594 |
| 2016 | Clayton, GA | 19.1 | 86.1 | 90,865 |
| 2016 | Cameron, TX | 17.5 | 66.8 | 88,874 |
| 2016 | Muskegon, MI | 18.9 | 50.8 | 73,431 |
| 2016 | Merced, CA | 13.9 | 55.3 | 59,706 |
| 2016 | Webb, TX | 18.1 | 76.6 | 55,254 |
| 2016 | Cumberland, NJ | 15.4 | 53.2 | 52,224 |
| 2016 | Wyandotte, KS | 17.3 | 65.4 | 44,866 |
| 2020 | San Joaquin, CA | 21.0 | 57.1 | 282,235 |
| 2020 | Hidalgo, TX | 20.0 | 58.6 | 218,726 |
| 2020 | Stanislaus, CA | 18.7 | 50.4 | 209,986 |
| 2020 | Cameron, TX | 20.1 | 56.6 | 113,095 |
| 2020 | Clayton, GA | 20.8 | 85.8 | 111,277 |
| 2020 | Muskegon, MI | 20.5 | 50.3 | 90,776 |
| 2020 | Merced, CA | 14.7 | 55.4 | 88,388 |
| 2020 | Webb, TX | 20.1 | 61.8 | 67,718 |
| 2020 | Cumberland, NJ | 17.8 | 53.1 | 61,694 |
| 2020 | Imperial, CA | 15.7 | 62.5 | 55,525 |
| 2024 | Wyandotte, KS | 21.2 | 62.1 | 49,805 |
| 2024 | Wilson, NC | 21.7 | 50.2 | 39,659 |
| 2024 | Orangeburg, SC | 19.4 | 62.4 | 36,582 |
| 2024 | Apache, AZ | 16.6 | 59.6 | 31,667 |
| 2024 | McKinley, NM | 13.3 | 62.7 | 25,075 |
| 2024 | Edgecombe, NC | 17.5 | 61.4 | 24,255 |
| 2024 | Halifax, NC | 16.1 | 58.9 | 23,792 |
| 2024 | Liberty, GA | 20.5 | 58.8 | 22,900 |
| 2024 | Gadsden, FL | 21.3 | 65.5 | 21,698 |
| 2024 | Jefferson, AR | 20.1 | 60.2 | 21,270 |

The map draws every unit from https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/the-diploma-map/diploma_classes.json; the rows above are the subset the figure file carries.

Note: Election returns are full counts of votes, so the map draws no intervals. A county's class depends on the national result of the election as well as on its own vote. Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and matched on FIPS code; a county with no return or no college share in an election draws as no data. Kansas City's votes, a separate unit in the 2024 returns, are added to Jackson County, Missouri. The data table lists ten counties for each election, not the whole map.

Source: County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, not weighted; college share from the county demographics panel (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/diploma_map.json

### Table 9. Counting each county once, the correlation with 2000 college share was positive in 1972, negative in the point estimates from 1976 to 1996 and positive from 2000

Correlation of a county's share of residents with a bachelor's degree or more in 2000 with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in each presidential election, 1972 to 2024

| conf_high | conf_low | estimate | n_units | weighting | year |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 0.340 | 0.123 | 0.243 | 3,107 | Vote-weighted | 1972 |
| −0.094 | −0.340 | −0.213 | 3,110 | Vote-weighted | 1976 |
| 0.047 | −0.143 | −0.048 | 3,110 | Vote-weighted | 1980 |
| 0.198 | −0.015 | 0.100 | 3,112 | Vote-weighted | 1984 |
| 0.197 | −0.036 | 0.087 | 3,112 | Vote-weighted | 1988 |
| 0.246 | 0.005 | 0.133 | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 1992 |
| 0.247 | 0.027 | 0.147 | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 1996 |
| 0.365 | 0.189 | 0.282 | 3,114 | Vote-weighted | 2000 |
| 0.439 | 0.283 | 0.363 | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2004 |
| 0.477 | 0.336 | 0.406 | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2008 |
| 0.458 | 0.319 | 0.387 | 3,113 | Vote-weighted | 2012 |
| 0.616 | 0.497 | 0.551 | 3,111 | Vote-weighted | 2016 |
| 0.673 | 0.568 | 0.612 | 3,111 | Vote-weighted | 2020 |
| 0.694 | 0.596 | 0.641 | 3,111 | Vote-weighted | 2024 |
| 0.178 | 0.028 | 0.099 | 3,107 | County-equal | 1972 |
| −0.270 | −0.387 | −0.332 | 3,110 | County-equal | 1976 |
| −0.102 | −0.270 | −0.198 | 3,110 | County-equal | 1980 |
| −0.016 | −0.180 | −0.105 | 3,112 | County-equal | 1984 |
| 0.000 | −0.168 | −0.087 | 3,112 | County-equal | 1988 |
| 0.009 | −0.179 | −0.091 | 3,113 | County-equal | 1992 |
| 0.028 | −0.152 | −0.066 | 3,113 | County-equal | 1996 |
| 0.196 | 0.005 | 0.099 | 3,114 | County-equal | 2000 |
| 0.305 | 0.118 | 0.211 | 3,113 | County-equal | 2004 |
| 0.399 | 0.231 | 0.313 | 3,113 | County-equal | 2008 |
| 0.404 | 0.225 | 0.314 | 3,113 | County-equal | 2012 |
| 0.579 | 0.382 | 0.483 | 3,111 | County-equal | 2016 |
| 0.639 | 0.463 | 0.554 | 3,111 | County-equal | 2020 |
| 0.666 | 0.494 | 0.583 | 3,111 | County-equal | 2024 |

Note: Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The data hold no county college share before 2000; the 2000 value is applied to earlier elections as a ranking of counties.

Note: Counties are matched on FIPS code to the 2000 census; a county with no 2000 value is left out of that election, which removes under one percent of two-party votes before 2000.

Source: County presidential returns, 1972-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and the 2000 census county college share; weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/before_2000.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (200), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| adj_step_max_u | +1.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | highest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   |   | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| adj_step_max_w | +1.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | highest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| adj_step_min_u | +0.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | lowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   |   | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| adj_step_min_w | +0.4 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | lowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| age_floor | 25 | years of age | lower age limit of the college share | residents counted in the college share | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| aligned_2000 | 50.8% | percent of counties | share of counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| aligned_2024 | 58.4% | percent of counties | share of counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| aligned_votes_2000 | 55.1% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in the counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| aligned_votes_2024 | 60.8% | percent of two-party votes | share of two-party votes cast in the counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| back_max_u | −0.07 | correlation coefficient | highest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1984 to 1996 |   |   | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| back_max_w | +0.15 | correlation coefficient | highest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1984 to 1996 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| back_min_u | −0.10 | correlation coefficient | lowest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1984 to 1996 |   |   | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| back_min_w | +0.09 | correlation coefficient | lowest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996 | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1984 to 1996 |   |   | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| back_u_1972 | +0.10 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1972 | 95% CI 0.03 to 0.18 | 3,107 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_u_1976 | −0.33 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1976 | 95% CI −0.39 to −0.27 | 3,110 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_u_1980 | −0.20 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1980 | 95% CI −0.27 to −0.10 | 3,110 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_u_2000 | +0.10 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.20 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_u_2024 | +0.58 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.49 to 0.67 | 3,111 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_1972 | +0.24 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1972 | 95% CI 0.12 to 0.34 | 3,107 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_1976 | −0.21 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1976 | 95% CI −0.34 to −0.09 | 3,110 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_1980 | −0.05 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 1980 | 95% CI −0.14 to 0.05 | 3,110 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_2000 | +0.28 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.37 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_2012 | +0.39 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2012 | 95% CI 0.32 to 0.46 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_2016 | +0.55 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2016 | 95% CI 0.50 to 0.62 | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| back_w_2024 | +0.64 | correlation coefficient | correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election | counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.60 to 0.69 | 3,111 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| big_cut | 250,000 | two-party votes in the election | definition of a large county | threshold for a large county | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| black_cut | 25% | percent of residents | definition of a county group | non-Hispanic Black share cut-off | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| boot_reps | 2,000 | replicates | number of bootstrap replicates | bootstrap over states | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| corr_step_w_1624 | +0.09 | correlation coefficient, change between two elections | change in the correlation of college share with the Democratic share, 2024 minus 2016 | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.07 to 0.10 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_u_2000 | +0.10 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.01 to 0.20 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_u_2024 | +0.56 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.45 to 0.66 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_w_2000 | +0.28 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.19 to 0.37 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_w_2012 | +0.42 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 | 95% CI 0.35 to 0.48 | 3,112 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_w_2016 | +0.58 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 | 95% CI 0.53 to 0.64 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| corr_w_2024 | +0.66 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.71 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fe_u_2000 | 1.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −0.2 to 2.6 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fe_u_2024 | 7.3 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 6.2 to 8.3 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fe_w_2000 | 2.4 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 1.2 to 3.6 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fe_w_2024 | 8.3 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 7.6 to 9.1 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fer_step_w_0024 | +7.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.1 to 8.2 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fer_u_2000 | 0.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −0.7 to 2.1 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fer_u_2024 | 7.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 6.8 to 8.5 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fer_w_2000 | 0.5 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −0.7 to 1.6 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fer_w_2024 | 7.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 6.9 to 8.4 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| fx00_step_w_1216 | +4.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on the 2000 college share of the county, held fixed across elections, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 3.5 to 4.6 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| label_cut | 300,000 | two-party votes in 2024 | definition of the named counties | threshold for naming a county in the scatter figure | 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| lod_black25_2024 | 82% | percent of counties | share of the counties whose non-Hispanic Black share is 25 percent or more | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority | 2024 |   | 93 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| lod_ms_2024 | 17 | counties | count of the counties in Mississippi | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority | 2024 |   | 93 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| lod_n_2000 | 325 | counties | count of counties | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority | 2000 |   | 325 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| lod_south_2024 | 86% | percent of counties | share of the counties in the 17 Census Bureau South states and the District of Columbia | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority | 2024 |   | 93 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| lod_white_majority_2000 | 66% | percent of counties | share of the counties whose non-Hispanic white share is 50 percent or more | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority | 2000 |   | 325 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| lod_wm_matched | 212 | counties | count of the counties that have 2024 returns and characteristics | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority and a non-Hispanic white share of 50 percent or more in 2000, with a 2024 return | 2000 and 2024 |   | 213 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| lod_wm_rep_2024 | 208 | counties | count of the counties with a Republican majority in 2024 | counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority and a non-Hispanic white share of 50 percent or more in 2000 | 2000 and 2024 |   | 213 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| mean_ds_w_2000 | 50.3% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote (the pooled share of the counties when vote-weighted) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County election returns |   |
| mean_ds_w_2024 | 49.2% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote (the pooled share of the counties when vote-weighted) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County election returns |   |
| med_ba_2000 | 14.5% | percent of residents 25 and older | median county share with a bachelor's degree or more | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| med_ba_2024 | 22.1% | percent of residents 25 and older | median county share with a bachelor's degree or more | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| n_big_2000 | 76 | counties | count of counties in the size class | large counties | 2000 |   | 76 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_big_2024 | 135 | counties | count of counties in the size class | large counties | 2024 |   | 135 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_counties_2000 | 3,114 | counties | count of counties in the estimates | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_counties_2024 | 3,103 | counties | count of counties in the estimates | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_hid_2000 | 350 | counties | count of counties above the median college share, Democratic majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_hid_2024 | 352 | counties | count of counties above the median college share, Democratic majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_lod_2000 | 325 | counties | count of counties at or below the median college share, Democratic majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_lod_2024 | 93 | counties | count of counties at or below the median college share, Democratic majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_lor_2000 | 1,232 | counties | count of counties at or below the median college share, Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 |   | 3,114 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_lor_2024 | 1,459 | counties | count of counties at or below the median college share, Republican majority | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_no_comp_2024 | 9 | counties | counties with returns and no county characteristics | counties with 2024 returns | 2024 |   | 3,112 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| n_returns_2024 | 3,112 | counties | count of counties with returns | counties with two-party votes, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,112 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_states_only | 49 | states | count of states, not counting the District of Columbia | states with counties in these data, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| n_years | 7 | presidential elections | count of elections | elections with county college share | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| q1_u_2000 | 44.0% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2000 | 95% CI 42.1% to 46.1% | 623 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q1_u_2024 | 26.3% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 23.0% to 30.1% | 621 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q1_w_2000 | 43.7% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2000 | 95% CI 42.2% to 45.5% | 623 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q1_w_2024 | 26.4% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 23.4% to 29.7% | 621 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q2_u_2024 | 26.5% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 2 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 24.2% to 29.1% | 620 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q3_u_2024 | 27.4% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 3 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 24.8% to 30.4% | 621 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q4_u_2000 | 37.9% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 4 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2000 | 95% CI 34.9% to 41.6% | 623 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q4_u_2024 | 32.1% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 4 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 29.0% to 35.4% | 620 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q5_u_2000 | 44.6% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2000 | 95% CI 41.7% to 47.5% | 623 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q5_u_2024 | 48.3% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 45.3% to 51.1% | 621 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q5_w_2000 | 53.0% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2000 | 95% CI 49.4% to 56.0% | 623 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| q5_w_2024 | 56.1% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most | 2024 | 95% CI 53.2% to 59.0% | 621 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qba1_2000 | 9.0% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share | 2000 |   | 623 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| qba1_2024 | 13.8% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth | counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share | 2024 |   | 621 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| qba5_2000 | 29.1% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share | 2000 |   | 623 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| qba5_2024 | 41.2% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth | counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share | 2024 |   | 621 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| qchg1_w | −17.4 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change | change in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each election | counties in fifth 1 by college share in each election | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −20.7 to −14.0 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qchg5_w | +3.1 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change | change in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each election | counties in fifth 5 by college share in each election | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.5 to 5.5 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgap_u_2000 | 0.6 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth | Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −2.6 to 3.9 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgap_u_2024 | 22.0 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth | Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 17.6 to 26.0 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgap_w_2000 | 9.3 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth | Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 5.3 to 12.6 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgap_w_2024 | 29.8 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth | Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 26.4 to 33.0 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgapchg_u | +21.4 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change in the gap | change in the most-minus-least-educated fifth gap | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 17.9 to 24.9 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qgapchg_w | +20.5 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change in the gap | change in the most-minus-least-educated fifth gap | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 16.7 to 24.4 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| qvotes1_2024 | 3.6% | percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties | share of the two-party votes cast in the fifth | counties in fifth 1 by college share | 2024 |   | 621 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| qvotes5_2024 | 64.4% | percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties | share of the two-party votes cast in the fifth | counties in fifth 5 by college share | 2024 |   | 621 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| r_ba_0024 | +0.94 | correlation coefficient | correlation across counties of college share in 2000 with college share in 2024 | counties with college share in both 2000 and 2024 | 2000 and 2024 |   | 3,102 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| race_step_u_0024 | +7.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.5 to 9.6 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_step_u_1216 | +3.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 2.6 to 3.6 | 3,113 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_step_w_0024 | +5.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 4.7 to 8.2 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_step_w_1216 | +3.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 2.8 to 3.9 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_u_2000 | 0.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −1.5 to 2.3 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_u_2024 | 8.5 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 7.5 to 9.3 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_w_2000 | 2.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −0.1 to 3.4 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| race_w_2024 | 7.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 7.0 to 8.9 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_fe_w_2000 | 1.5 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.5 to 2.4 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_fe_w_2024 | 1.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.5 to 1.5 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_race_u_2000 | 0.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI −0.2 to 2.5 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_race_u_2024 | 0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI −1.0 to 1.2 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_race_w_2000 | 1.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.8 to 3.5 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| red_race_w_2024 | 1.4 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction | slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 0.2 to 2.3 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| reddiff_fe_w | −0.5 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction | reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −1.2 to 0.2 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| reddiff_race_u | −0.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction | reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −2.2 to 0.0 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| reddiff_race_w | −0.5 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction | reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed) | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −2.3 to 0.3 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| sd_ba_u_2024 | 10.3 | standard deviation, percentage points of college share | standard deviation of county college share about its mean | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| sd_ba_w_2016 | 11.2 | standard deviation, percentage points of college share | standard deviation of county college share about its mean | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| sd_ba_w_2024 | 11.8 | standard deviation, percentage points of college share | standard deviation of county college share about its mean | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| sd_ds_w_2016 | 17.9 | standard deviation, percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | standard deviation of the county Democratic two-party share about its mean | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 |   | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County election returns |   |
| sd_ds_w_2024 | 16.4 | standard deviation, percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | standard deviation of the county Democratic two-party share about its mean | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 |   | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County election returns |   |
| size_ba_big_2000 | 30.2% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more | large counties | 2000 |   | 76 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| size_ba_oth_2000 | 16.2% | percent of residents 25 and older | mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more | other counties | 2000 |   | 3,038 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| size_btw_2000 | 61% | percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share | share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies between the two size classes | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 43% to 87% | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_btw_2024 | 38% | percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share | share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies between the two size classes | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 28% to 48% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_corr_big_u_2000 | +0.04 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class | large counties | 2000 | 95% CI −0.23 to 0.32 | 76 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_corr_big_u_2024 | +0.46 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class | large counties | 2024 | 95% CI 0.26 to 0.64 | 135 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_corr_oth_u_2000 | +0.04 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class | other counties | 2000 | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.13 | 3,038 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_corr_oth_u_2024 | +0.50 | correlation coefficient | correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class | other counties | 2024 | 95% CI 0.38 to 0.61 | 2,968 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_ds_big_2000 | 57.7% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote | large counties | 2000 |   | 76 | none; each county counted once | County election returns |   |
| size_ds_chg_big | −0.1 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change | change in the mean county Democratic share, counting each county once | large counties | 2000 to 2024 |   | 135 | none; each county counted once | County election returns |   |
| size_ds_chg_oth | −9.9 | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change | change in the mean county Democratic share, counting each county once | other counties | 2000 to 2024 |   | 2,968 | none; each county counted once | County election returns |   |
| size_ds_oth_2000 | 40.8% | percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote | mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote | other counties | 2000 |   | 3,038 | none; each county counted once | County election returns |   |
| size_slope_big_u_2000 | 0.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | large counties | 2000 | 95% CI −2.9 to 4.1 | 76 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_slope_big_u_2024 | 5.9 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | large counties | 2024 | 95% CI 3.4 to 8.0 | 135 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_slope_big_w_2000 | 0.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | large counties | 2000 | 95% CI −3.4 to 3.0 | 76 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_slope_oth_u_2000 | 0.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | other counties | 2000 | 95% CI −0.8 to 2.0 | 3,038 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_slope_oth_u_2024 | 7.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | other counties | 2024 | 95% CI 6.2 to 9.1 | 2,968 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_slope_oth_w_2000 | 2.4 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class | other counties | 2000 | 95% CI 1.3 to 3.8 | 3,038 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_wth_2000 | 39% | percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share | share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies inside the size classes | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 13% to 57% | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| size_wth_2024 | 62% | percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share | share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies inside the size classes | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 52% to 72% | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_u_2000 | 1.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 0.1 to 3.0 | 3,114 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_u_2024 | 8.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 7.2 to 9.8 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2000 | 3.9 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 | 95% CI 2.5 to 5.1 | 3,114 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2004 | 5.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2004 | 95% CI 3.9 to 6.4 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2008 | 5.9 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2008 | 95% CI 4.7 to 7.0 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2012 | 6.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 | 95% CI 4.9 to 7.0 | 3,112 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2016 | 9.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 | 95% CI 8.2 to 10.3 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2020 | 9.3 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2020 | 95% CI 8.5 to 10.3 | 3,105 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| slope_w_2024 | 9.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2024 | 95% CI 8.4 to 10.1 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| st_min_counties | 20 | counties | definition of the state set | minimum number of counties in a state in the within-state comparison | 2000 and 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| st_n | 39 | states | count of states in the within-state comparison | states with at least 20 counties in 2000 and 2024, Alaska excluded | 2000 and 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| st_neg_u_2000 | 13 | states | count of states with a negative slope | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_negsig_u_2000 | 4 | states | count of states whose interval lies below zero | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_pos_u_2000 | 26 | states | count of states with a positive slope | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_pos_u_2024 | 36 | states | count of states with a positive slope | states with at least 20 counties | 2024 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_pos_w_2000 | 29 | states | count of states with a positive slope | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| st_pos_w_2024 | 39 | states | count of states with a positive slope | states with at least 20 counties | 2024 |   | 39 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| st_sig_u_2000 | 12 | states | count of states whose interval lies above zero | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_sig_u_2024 | 30 | states | count of states whose interval lies above zero | states with at least 20 counties | 2024 |   | 39 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel |   |
| st_sig_w_2000 | 12 | states | count of states whose interval lies above zero | states with at least 20 counties | 2000 |   | 39 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| st_sig_w_2024 | 28 | states | count of states whose interval lies above zero | states with at least 20 counties | 2024 |   | 39 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel |   |
| step_u_0004 | +1.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2004 | 95% CI 1.2 to 2.2 | 3,113 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_0408 | +1.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2004 to 2008 | 95% CI 1.1 to 2.6 | 3,113 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_0812 | 0.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2008 to 2012 | 95% CI −0.4 to 0.4 | 3,112 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_1216 | +2.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 2.3 to 3.4 | 3,113 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_1620 | +0.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2020 | 95% CI 0.5 to 1.1 | 3,105 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_1624 | +0.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | 95% CI 0.2 to 1.0 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_u_2024 | −0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2020 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.0 | 3,103 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_0004 | +1.3 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2004 | 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_0008 | +2.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2000 to 2008 | 95% CI 1.3 to 3.0 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_0408 | +0.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2004 to 2008 | 95% CI 0.2 to 1.4 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_0812 | +0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2008 to 2012 | 95% CI −0.2 to 0.3 | 3,112 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_1216 | +3.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2012 to 2016 | 95% CI 2.7 to 3.8 | 3,113 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_1620 | +0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2020 | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.5 | 3,105 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_1624 | 0.0 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2016 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.4 to 0.4 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| step_w_2024 | −0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections | change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election | counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded | 2020 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.3 to 0.0 | 3,103 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| vshare_big_2000 | 35.1% | percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties | share of the two-party votes cast in the size class | large counties | 2000 |   | 76 | none (full counts) | County election returns |   |
| wg_90p_u_2000 | 0.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2000 | 95% CI −2.2 to 2.1 | 1,502 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wg_90p_u_2024 | 8.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2024 | 95% CI 5.2 to 11.8 | 787 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wg_90p_w_2000 | 1.1 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2000 | 95% CI −0.5 to 2.9 | 1,502 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wg_90p_w_2024 | 10.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2024 | 95% CI 7.7 to 13.8 | 787 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wg_cut50 | 50% | percent of residents | definition of a county group | non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wg_cut75 | 75% | percent of residents | definition of a county group | non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wg_cut90 | 90% | percent of residents | definition of a county group | non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wg_lt50_w_2000 | 4.4 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2000 | 95% CI −1.2 to 7.3 | 253 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wg_lt50_w_2024 | 6.2 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share | slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2024 | 95% CI 4.5 to 7.3 | 404 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wgchg_90p_u | +8.6 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change | change in the slope inside the group, 2024 minus 2000 | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 5.4 to 11.3 | 787 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wgchg_90p_w | +9.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change | change in the slope inside the group, 2024 minus 2000 | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI 6.8 to 12.1 | 787 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wgchg_lt50_u | +3.7 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change | change in the slope inside the group, 2024 minus 2000 | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.2 to 7.2 | 404 | none; each county counted once | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wgchg_lt50_w | +1.8 | points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change | change in the slope inside the group, 2024 minus 2000 | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2000 to 2024 | 95% CI −0.6 to 6.7 | 404 | two-party votes in the election | County demographics panel | Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates. |
| wgn_50_75_2000 | 635 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 50 to under 75% white | 2000 |   | 635 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_50_75_2024 | 855 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 50 to under 75% white | 2024 |   | 855 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_75_90_2000 | 724 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 75 to under 90% white | 2000 |   | 724 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_75_90_2024 | 1,057 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 75 to under 90% white | 2024 |   | 1,057 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_90p_2000 | 1,502 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2000 |   | 1,502 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_90p_2024 | 787 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group 90% or more white | 2024 |   | 787 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_lt50_2000 | 253 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2000 |   | 253 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wgn_lt50_2024 | 404 | counties | count of counties in the group | counties in the group Under 50% white | 2024 |   | 404 | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| wm_cut | 50% | percent of residents | definition of a county group | non-Hispanic white share cut-off | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |
| x_unit | 10 | points of college share | definition of the slope unit | unit of the slope | 2000 to 2024 |   |   | none (full counts) | County demographics panel |   |

## Definitions

- Percentage point: The unit for the difference between two percentages. A change from one share to another is stated in points, not in percent, so that absolute and relative change are not confused.
- Correlation: A number from minus 1 to plus 1 for how closely two measures move together in a straight-line pattern. Zero means no straight-line pattern; a correlation does not say that one measure causes the other.
- HC3 robust standard errors: A way of computing standard errors that stays valid when the spread of the outcome differs across respondents, with a correction for small samples. The book uses it for regressions that have no clusters.
- Standard deviation: A measure of how far values typically fall from their average. A larger standard deviation means the values are more spread out.
- Fixed effects: Regression terms that give each group, such as each country or each year, its own baseline. The other coefficients then compare respondents within the same group.
- Ecological inference: Drawing a conclusion about individuals from data on groups or places, such as counties. A pattern across counties can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them.

## Methods

Sample: presidential returns for the 7 elections from 2000 to 2024 (Algara and Amlani for 2000 to 2020, MIT Election Data and Science Lab for 2024), from the repaired county file whose 2024 totals are corrected for 173 counties in South Carolina, Wisconsin and West Virginia. The Alaska rows (election districts) are dropped before any calculation, as are 5 rows with no vote count and 0 rows with no FIPS code or no two-party votes in 1972 to 2024. County characteristics come from the county demographics panel. Its anchors are the 2000 census sample and the American Community Survey five-year estimates for 2008 to 2012, 2012 to 2016, 2016 to 2020 and 2020 to 2024, placed at their midpoints, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, with linear interpolation between anchors: 2004 and 2008 lie 40% and 80% of the way from the 2000 anchor to the 2010 anchor, 2012, 2016 and 2020 lie midway between two anchors, and 2024 takes the 2022 anchor (the nearest anchor; there is no extrapolation), so college share for 2004 to 2020 is an interpolation. The characteristics are the share of residents 25 and older with a bachelor's degree or more (college share) and the non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian shares of residents, each at the election year. An election's estimates use the 3,103 to 3,114 counties with returns and all five characteristics; county boundaries are not harmonized, so a few counties drop out in some years (the Connecticut counties in 2020 and 2024, Broomfield County in 2004 and 2008, Shannon County and Bedford city in 2012, Oglala Lakota County in 2024). Kansas City, Missouri is a separate unit (FIPS code 2938000) in the 2024 returns; in every election where the unit appears (2024 only) its votes are added to Jackson County (29095), whose census figures are county-wide, as in the 2000 to 2020 returns. Estimand: the outcome is a county's Democratic share of the two-party vote, 100 times Democratic votes over Democratic plus Republican votes (a slope on the margin is twice a slope on the share; correlations are the same); the gradient is the least-squares slope of that share on college share, per 10 points of college share, or the Pearson correlation of the two. Weights: two-party votes in the election (vote-weighted) or one per county (county-equal). Specifications: college share alone; with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares entered as straight lines (race and ethnicity held fixed; the omitted remainder is other and multiple races); within states, with each state's weighted mean removed from the share and every regressor (state fixed effects); both; and the slope on each county's 2000 college share, or on its 2024 college share, applied to every election (a county with no value in that year is left out of that version). The reduction in the slope by a control is the slope of college share alone minus the slope in the specification, and the change in the reduction between 2000 and 2024 is computed inside each bootstrap replicate. Groups: five equal-sized groups of counties (fifths) ranked by college share within each election, with ties broken by FIPS order, whose Democratic share is the mean of the county shares weighted as stated (vote-weighted, this is the pooled two-party vote of the group); large counties are those with 250,000 or more two-party votes in the election (slopes inside a size class are shown counting each county once and by two-party votes; the decomposition splits the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share into the covariance of the class means, weighted by the classes' votes, and the votes-weighted average of the within-class covariances, and the between-class share is the first over the sum); the four groups by non-Hispanic white share (under 50%, 50% to under 75%, 75% to under 90%, and 90% or more) are formed at each election; the map classes compare a county's college share with the median college share of that election's counties and its Democratic share with 50%. Within-state slopes (the state figure) are county regressions inside each state with at least 20 counties in both 2000 and 2024, with HC3 errors that treat counties as independent. Intervals: 95% percentile intervals from a bootstrap that resamples whole states (49 states and the District of Columbia, 2,000 replicates, seed 12345; every estimate shares the same state draws, Connecticut is a resampling unit with no counties in 2020 and 2024, so a change between elections or specifications is computed inside each replicate, and group membership is held fixed across replicates). The returns are full counts, so these intervals show how much a number depends on which states are in the set; they are not sampling error of the vote and they do not include the sampling error of the college shares. Before 2000: the 2000 college share of each county, matched on FIPS code, is applied to the presidential elections of 1972 to 2024 from the same county file (under one percent of two-party votes in 1972 to 1996 are in counties with no 2000 value); before 2000 this ranks counties and does not measure education at the time. Differences are computed before rounding, so a printed difference can differ by 0.1 from the difference of two printed values. Suppression: none; every estimate rests on counties, and the smallest group has 253 counties.

## What these data cannot show

- Every estimate here describes counties, and a pattern across places can differ from the pattern among the people who live in them, a limit known as ecological inference.
- Robinson [2] showed that a correlation across places can have the opposite sign from the correlation across individuals.
- College share counts residents 25 and older with a degree, not voters, and a county with more graduates also has different occupations, ages, densities and histories.
- The chapter holds only race and ethnicity composition and state fixed.
- Counties also gain or lose graduates by migration, so a change in the slope can reflect where people live as well as how they vote.
- A book-length account of the diploma divide among individuals is [3], and Chapter 3.4, The diploma divide (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-divide) uses survey respondents.
- The dates are the dates of elections.
- College share for 2004 to 2020 is interpolated between anchors, and the 2000 value comes from a census sample, so the college shares carry sampling error, most in small counties, that no interval includes.
- Counties are not harmonized across boundary changes.
- In 2024, 9 of the 3,112 counties with returns have no county characteristics, among them the Connecticut counties.
- Kansas City's votes, a separate unit in the 2024 returns, are added to Jackson County, Missouri, whose census figures are county-wide.
- The vote is the Democratic share of Democratic and Republican votes cast, so it leaves out third-party votes and people who did not vote, and a change in turnout can change a county's share without any voter changing party.
- The intervals say how much a number depends on which states are in the set, and the within-state intervals treat counties as independent.
- The weightings, the large-county cut, the white-share groups and the median split of the map are rules that move the estimates, and the section on weighting shows how far the weighting moves them.
- The state comparison and the controls for race and ethnicity do not hold income, age, occupation, density or religion fixed, which Chapter 8.1, Five axes of the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/five-axes-of-the-county-vote) and Planned, Income and the county vote (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/income-and-the-county-vote; planned) take up.
- The data used here have no measure of attitudes, candidates, campaigns or turnout by group, so they cannot say why the slope rose when it did.
- They hold no county college share before 2000, so they cannot date the start of the gradient, only describe how the 2000 ranking lined up with earlier votes.

## References

1. Zingher, Joshua N. (2022). Diploma Divide: Educational Attainment and the Realignment of the American Electorate. Political Research Quarterly 75(2): 263-277. https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129221079862
2. Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15(3): 351-357.
3. Grossmann, Matt; Hopkins, David A. (2024). Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics. Cambridge University Press.

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/the-diploma-map/build.py (sha256 239be004a382ed21f0d5d017d71ba55b2f0209702da689561f26a47447df8f03)
- Built on: 2026-10-03
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/county/county_demographics_2000_2024.parquet | 4,334,220 | 45cdaf63128da1aa0c12e1196d7e60835697d7432ab9bff1acd2f5559fdb5130 | 90293a64867bf37645b53eaf5ab343f3b284c0d2c3fc3b8e0f38d32f1649fee4 |
| data/county/pres_county_1868_2024.parquet | 6,295,675 | bec11c7a0cb5d4180bbd6809d048bc892dd00dfcdde527fa4da871b1dd3f835f | b2a4f000f2eea72d09af8939555289e924875cca40cd95ec8869104cd575bed7 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 3f4f57fb46b5ffc1ab4b1045a4ab3df5940791202b2a04946962ac729b4d0d99 |
| figures/before_2000.json | 94c47e47338d873f9a27822c5e95c042f812a56ac79dd2634785043d6341cbe5 |
| figures/diploma_map.json | 1f5cfb59929696bccca120faa6314e44e9ddf5be6ae554c82d3d0354b91b5f96 |
| figures/gradient_by_year.json | 8a9e62403c1957fb35de63e3f01aac2e078825591f8643c2b1ad0bf032d3a8d4 |
| figures/size_classes.json | 08d1145e26cb1c1d21f053ca1e3dcb5a59fd174c5e5697d0ab4377b3a9eb52c2 |
| figures/specifications.json | c84c6aa95c8570bbbd6b60c0523e6b48dc53f7aa09549a32b57a0984499d81ea |
| figures/state_slopes.json | b80e52871854c40ce4c87d3fd9d9b79eb5a0b33d52bbc38c3b43629d8554319a |
| figures/step_sensitivity.json | 0f8656f70da33238b1c8646b6ffaa6cfdc8097d3d816e2a65fe1c43b047e0f6f |
| figures/vote_by_college.json | 9c4f02b6840434e811b2e9074def6d582fada68c869ad416bc4d6502b4d3e7ff |
| figures/white_groups.json | a04269ab38217529b5af6b027f6c93dd1c643eb08b81d531664ca8cb5ccc2949 |
| meta.json | d38129f7ebc35dee0bf178ec841131d70cd03abf7cbc472b36a8759262f5889b |
| public/data/the-diploma-map/diploma_classes.json | 154cdd25db8b6f25633ea658121b25ec0963513fc0879425d2ae2ecefe81e25c |
| refs.json | c1b1574220dc9931998a1cd051161a72ad9c360ff5f59cc7d740dcb61ab7016e |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-diploma-map/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "gradient_by_year" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/gradient_by_year.json
- Table 2, figure "step_sensitivity" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/step_sensitivity.json
- Table 3, figure "vote_by_college" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/vote_by_college.json
- Table 4, figure "size_classes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/size_classes.json
- Table 5, figure "specifications" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/specifications.json
- Table 6, figure "white_groups" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/white_groups.json
- Table 7, figure "state_slopes" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/state_slopes.json
- Table 8, figure "diploma_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/diploma_map.json
- Table 9, figure "before_2000" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/the-diploma-map/figures/before_2000.json
- Payload of "diploma_map" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/data/the-diploma-map/diploma_classes.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt