# Sort dates by attitude: report

Chapter 4.7 of The Public Mind, by Vishal Singh (NYU Stern). Generated from the chapter's data files; the reading version is at https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude. Table n of this report is figure n of the chapter.

## Identification

- Title: Sort dates by attitude
- Chapter: 4.7 (Part IV, Issues move on different schedules; Coalitions and political differences)
- Question: When did the party gap on each attitude (abortion, religion, racial resentment, economic perceptions) pass a fixed threshold, and which gaps persist rather than reverse with the party in the White House?
- Dek: Among ANES partisans, the party gap passed a fixed threshold by the lower bound of its interval on racial resentment in 1992, on abortion in 2008 and on the importance of religion in 2016.
- Grain: individuals
- Status: draft
- Published: 2026-09-30
- Updated: not revised
- Data sources:
  - ANES Cumulative Data File. Cumulative Data File 1948-2024, study years 1980-2024; mode weights for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024; years: 1948-2024 (33 study years; even years only after 2004; no 2006, 2010 or 2014 study); weights: weight (VCF0009z); weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode views
  - ANES 2024 Time Series. 2024 Time Series, importance of religion on the five-point scale; years: 2024 (pre-election and post-election interviews); weights: V240107a (pre-election)
  - General Social Survey. General Social Survey extract, 1977-2024; years: 1972-2024 (35 study years); weights: weight_use
  - Cooperative Election Study. Cooperative Election Study, even years 2008-2024; years: 2006-2024 (every year; self-reported turnout is available in the 10 even years); weights: weight_cumulative
- Canonical URL: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude
- Report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude/report
- Markdown: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude/report.md
- BibTeX key: singh2026sortdatesbyattitude

```bibtex
@misc{singh2026sortdatesbyattitude,
  author = {Singh, Vishal},
  title = {Sort dates by attitude},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude},
  note = {In The Public Mind. Published 30 September 2026.}
}
```

## Principal estimates

The facts the dek and the opening prose cite, in order of appearance.

| Estimand | Population | Period | Value | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Fact id |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 | 1992 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | race_bound |
| first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 | 2008 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | abortion_bound |
| first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 | 2016 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File | religion_bound |
| sort-date rule carried over from an earlier analysis of the same surveys and kept | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 | 0.25 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | rule_sd |
| lowest or highest threshold in the sensitivity check | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 | 0.15 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | rule_min |
| lowest or highest threshold in the sensitivity check | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 | 0.50 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File | rule_max |

## Findings

Among Republican and Democratic identifiers in the American National Election Studies (ANES), leaners included, the party gap on racial resentment passed 0.25 standard deviations (SD) of the answers by the lower bound of its 95% interval in 1992. The gap on abortion passed that mark in 2008 and the gap on the importance of religion in 2016, and each stays above it in every later survey. A date here is the survey year in which a gap crosses a threshold; it is not the historical beginning of a divide. The fourth gap in this chapter, on perceptions of the economy, changes sign whenever the presidency changes parties. The dates move with the test, the sample and the survey, as later sections show.

A sort date is the survey year in which the party gap on an attitude crosses a fixed threshold and stays above it. This chapter finds that year with one rule for every attitude. For each attitude and survey year the answers are standardized among all respondents who answered the item that year, partisans and independents alike, so that their average is zero and their standard deviation is one. A gap in SD is therefore measured against the spread of answers in the whole sample of that year; the White and face-to-face views standardize within their own samples. The party gap is the average of that score among Republican identifiers minus the average among Democratic identifiers, with leaners counted with the party they lean toward. A gap of zero means the parties answer alike, and a gap of one means their averages sit one standard deviation apart. The data are the ANES Cumulative Data File, which asked the abortion, religion and economic items from 1980 to 2024 and a racial resentment battery from 1986. The Chapter 1.1, Party and ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/party-and-ideology) chapter dates the merger of party and ideology, and this one compares four attitudes and dates three.

The lower-bound test applies the rule to the lower end of the 95% interval, so it asks whether the gap is reliably above the mark, and the sort date is the first survey year in which that end exceeds 0.25 SD and stays above it in every later survey. The point-estimate test applies the same rule to the estimate itself and shows how early the estimates alone put the date. (Note: The mark is a convention, a little above Cohen's conventional label for a small difference between two means [1]. It was set in an earlier analysis of the same surveys and kept, and the views of Table 2 move it from 0.15 to 0.50 SD. Intervals use the effective sample size, treat the weighted sample as if respondents were drawn independently rather than in the geographic sampling clusters of the ANES design, and treat the standard deviation used for standardizing as a fixed number, so they may be narrower than intervals that follow the design, which the Cumulative Data File has no variables to test.)

### The three gaps crossed the mark in different decades

Table 1 plots the gap for each attitude and survey year. On abortion the gap was −0.02 (95% CI −0.13 to 0.08) SD in 1980 and 1.06 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.14) in 2024. Between 1992 and 1996 the estimates fall on both sides of the mark and every interval includes it, and the 1996 estimate is 0.003 SD under the mark, so the point-estimate date of 1998 rests on that reading. (Note: The abortion gap was 0.06 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.16) in 1990, 0.26 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.34) in 1992, 0.19 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.30) in 1994 and 0.247 (95% CI 0.134 to 0.359) in 1996, and the change from 1992 to 1994 is −0.06 (95% CI −0.20 to 0.07) SD, so these readings do not separate a fall from sampling variation.) Adams [2] tested whether abortion followed the pattern of issue evolution (a new issue slowly realigning the parties) that Carmines and Stimson [3] described for race, using congressional roll calls and General Social Survey (GSS) data through 1994. The ANES point estimate for the gap between identifiers is under the mark in 1994, the last year of his survey data, and its interval includes the mark. The Chapter 4.1, The abortion sort (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-abortion-sort) chapter follows the abortion item in detail.

Table 1. By the point estimates, party gaps stay above 0.25 SD from 1986 on racial resentment, 1998 on abortion and 2012 on religion

The gap on the importance of religion was 0.05 (95% CI −0.06 to 0.16) SD in 1980 and 0.08 (95% CI −0.03 to 0.19) in 2000, then 0.30 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.37) in 2012 and 0.52 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.59) in 2024. Layman [4] traced growing religious differences between the parties from the early 1960s to the late 1990s. The item here asks whether religion is important in the respondent's own life, and the gap on it between all Democratic and Republican identifiers stays small through 2000. Church attendance and the sample matter for the date, as a later section shows. The Chapter 3.8, The god gap in America (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/the-god-gap-in-america) chapter compares importance, attendance and denomination.

Racial resentment is the mean of the standardized answers to the Kinder and Sanders items [5], scored so that a higher value means more resentment. Its gap was 0.37 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.49) SD at the first reading in 1986, 0.73 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.84) in 2008, 1.29 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.34) in 2020 and 1.23 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.30) in 2024, and the 2020 and 2024 estimates are within sampling error of each other. The series begins after the realignment on race that Carmines and Stimson described, so for all respondents these data cannot say when the gap first passed the mark (White respondents are dated below). Tesler [6] reported that racial attitudes were more closely tied to political evaluations in the Obama years than before. Among all respondents the gap rises at each survey from 2008 to 2020, including from 0.73 in 2008 to 0.89 in 2012, and part of the 2012 step comes from the web respondents added that year, whose gap is higher than the face-to-face gap (Table 3). The Companion 4.6a, Racial attitudes and ideology (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/racial-attitudes-and-ideology) chapter takes up the tie between resentment and ideology.

### Two tests date religion after abortion

Table 2 shows both tests for each attitude. For abortion the point estimate passes the mark between 1996 and 1998, and the lower bound stays above it from 2008, which is 10 years later. For religion the point estimate passes it between 2008 and 2012 and the lower bound from 2016, 4 years later. The upper bound gives the other side of the range: it stays above the mark from 1992 for abortion and from 2008 for religion, so the interval allows dates from 1992 to 2008 for abortion and from 2008 to 2016 for religion. For racial resentment the point estimate is above the mark at the first reading, 1986, and the lower bound stays above it from 1992 after falling below it in 1990. Taken as ranges, the dates for racial resentment and abortion meet in 1992 and those for abortion and religion in 2008, so the order holds test by test, and the ranges leave open that adjacent attitudes share a survey year. (Note: The abortion lower-bound date rests on a single survey year: in 2008 the item went to part of the sample, 893 respondents were in the two parties, and the lower bound clears the mark by 0.009 SD.)

Table 2. Racial resentment, abortion and religion are dated in that order at every rule

Survey spacing widens the ranges. ANES surveys are 2 to 4 years apart, so a date can only fall on a survey year. The order is the same under both tests: racial resentment first, then abortion, then religion. It holds at every rule from 0.15 to 0.50 SD. At the highest rule the point estimate passes it in 1994 for racial resentment, 2012 for abortion and 2024 for religion, and the lower bound for religion has not stayed above it by 2024. At the lowest rule the point-estimate dates are 1992 for abortion and 2008 for religion.

### White respondents date the gaps differently

The all-respondent gap compares identifiers of every race. Limiting the sample to White non-Hispanic respondents moves the point-estimate date for abortion from 1998 to 1992 and for religion from 2012 to 2002, and the lower-bound dates to 2000 and 2012. One difference lies in who is in the Democratic group. In 2000, 85.1% (95% CI 80.6% to 89.7%) of Democratic identifiers who were Black, Hispanic or of another group said religion was important, against 70.0% (95% CI 65.8% to 74.1%) of White Democrats. On abortion, 36.9% (95% CI 30.7% to 43.1%) of the first group said a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion, against 52.9% (95% CI 48.3% to 57.5%) of White Democrats. Both differences raise the Democratic average on the religious and restrictive sides, so they shrink the gap among all respondents.

For racial resentment the direction reverses. In 1986, 93.7% (95% CI 89.7% to 97.7%) of Black partisans identified with the Democratic Party, and their average score was −0.84 (95% CI −0.99 to −0.69) SD, against 0.14 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.21) for White partisans. Part of the all-respondent gap at the first reading therefore separates racial groups that sit in different parties. Among White respondents the gap was 0.19 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.34) SD in 1986, its point estimate passes the mark between 1990 and 1992 and its lower bound stays above it from 2000, and by 2024 it was 1.28 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.36) SD. The date at which the racial resentment gap passed the mark depends on whether the population is all respondents or White respondents.

### The face-to-face series dates religion later

Limiting the sample to face-to-face interviews leaves the abortion and racial resentment dates unchanged and moves religion to 2016 for the point estimate and 2024 for the lower bound. The face-to-face series is smaller. It leaves out 2000, a study that mixed face-to-face and telephone interviews, 2002, which was conducted by telephone, and 2020, which has no weights for face-to-face or web respondents separately, and the ANES adds web respondents from 2012. The face-to-face gap on religion in 2016 is 0.38 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.53) SD with a lower bound under the mark, and 2020 has no face-to-face estimate, so its lower-bound date falls in 2024, the last survey, and no later survey can test it.

Table 3 compares respondents by interview mode, web against face-to-face, in the years that have both. The interval for the web minus face-to-face difference includes zero in 8 of 9 comparisons. The exception is racial resentment in 2012, when the web gap was 0.958 (95% CI 0.874 to 1.043) SD and the face-to-face gap 0.784 (95% CI 0.664 to 0.905), a difference of 0.174 (95% CI 0.027 to 0.321). Across 9 comparisons with no mode difference, the expected number of 95% intervals that exclude zero is 0.45, so one exclusion is close to what chance alone would produce. The intervals that include zero reach as far as 0.32 SD from zero, so the check cannot rule out a mode difference larger than the 0.25 SD mark. In 2012, the year that sets the all-respondent point-estimate date for religion, the face-to-face gap on religion is 0.22 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.35) and the web gap 0.35 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.44), on either side of the mark, and their difference is 0.13 (95% CI −0.03 to 0.28) SD. In 2024 the face-to-face gap on religion is 0.62 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.79) and the web gap 0.51 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.62). (Note: The 2024 question on the importance of religion was revised to a graded scale, and the cumulative file counts extremely, very and moderately important as yes. On the graded scale in the 2024 Time Series the gap is 0.57 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.65) SD, against 0.52 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.59) on the collapsed item used here.)

Table 3. Web and face-to-face gaps differ by 0.174 SD or less, and the interval for the difference excludes zero only for racial resentment in 2012

### The GSS and CES date the gaps differently

The GSS and the Cooperative Election Study (CES) ask different items, so Table 4 compares timing and not height. The GSS abortion-for-any-reason item has a gap of −0.13 (95% CI −0.26 to −0.01) SD in 1977 and 0.96 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.09) in 2024. Its point estimate stays above the mark from 2010 and its lower bound from 2012, later than the ANES dates for abortion. The GSS estimate was 0.24 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.39) in 2008, just under the mark, so the point-estimate date falls after 2008.

Table 4. The GSS abortion gap passes 0.25 SD 12 years after the ANES gap by the point estimate and 4 years after by the lower bound

Religion gives a different answer by measure. GSS church attendance passes the mark in the point estimates between 2004 and 2006, and its lower bound clears the mark only in 2024, the last survey. ANES attendance, available through 2020, passes the mark by both tests in 2008. The point-estimate dates for both attendance measures are earlier than the ANES importance point-estimate date of 2012, and by the lower bound GSS attendance (2024) is later than ANES importance (2016). The GSS item on whether Black Americans should work their way up without special favors (the work-your-way-up item) begins in the extract in 1994 already above the mark, at 0.34 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.47) SD, and its lower bound stays above it from 2010. The CES begins too late to date either sort: its first religion gap, in 2008, is 0.49 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.52) SD and its first abortion gap, in 2014, is 0.86 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.88). The ANES importance gap in 2008 is 0.21 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.32), so the CES gap is larger by 0.28 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.39) SD in the same year, and the ANES religion date is specific to its yes-or-no item.

GSS interviews since 2021 include web respondents (87.3% of respondents in 2021). The GSS race gap moves from 0.72 SD in 2018 to 1.06 in 2021. In 2024 the face-to-face gap on that item is 0.73 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.95) SD and the web gap 1.14 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.30), a difference of 0.41 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.68), so the GSS race level after 2020 depends on interview mode. On abortion in 2024 the face-to-face gap is 0.84 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.06) SD and the web gap 1.06 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.22). Table 5 lists the dates for the ANES all-respondent series and the other surveys.

Table 5. Sort dates differ across surveys and items for the same attitude

### Pooled trends hide the parties moving apart

Table 6 shows, for the question chosen to stand for each attitude, the share giving one answer, split by party and pooled. On religion the share saying it is important falls among Democrats and stays level among Republicans, so the gap grows through a fall on the Democratic side. On abortion the share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion rises among Democrats and falls among Republicans.

Table 6. The share saying religion is important fell among Democrats and stayed level among Republicans, so the pooled trend hides the party gap

On racial resentment the share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off if they tried harder falls in both parties, and falls further among Democrats. The pooled line describes the country, and the two party lines show in which party's identifiers the level changed.

### The economic gap follows the president's party

Economic perceptions have no sort date. The item asks whether the national economy got better over the past year, and its gap takes the sign of the president's party: in 18 of 18 survey years the point estimate shows the president's party as the more optimistic, and in 16 of them the interval also excludes zero on that side. The survey years whose intervals include zero are 1990 and 1994. The sign of the point estimate changed at 6 of 6 changes in the party of the president, and at 5 of them the intervals at both readings exclude zero. The gap was 0.89 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.94) SD in 2020 under a Republican president and −1.02 (95% CI −1.09 to −0.95) SD in 2024 under a Democratic one. The Chapter 4.5, Perceptions of the economy (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/perceptions-of-the-economy) chapter follows that item with a second survey.

Table 7. The economic gap follows the president's party in all 18 survey years

### What these data cannot show

The gaps are associations between party and an answer in one survey year. They do not show whether an attitude drew people to a party, whether party led people to change their answers, or whether new voters and departing voters changed the makeup of each party. Panel studies address direction. Margolis [7] found that for many Americans partisanship shapes religious identity, and Engelhardt [8] found White respondents aligning their racial attitudes with their party. The Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened) chapter describes the change in party and ideology by birth cohort and cannot show whether any individual switched.

A sort date is the year a survey-based gap passes a threshold. It is not the year party elites took positions, and the ANES cannot show it. The dates also depend on choices the data cannot settle: the rule, the item, the sample and the survey. Each 95% interval is computed on its own, and the lower-bound test needs the interval of every later survey to stay above the mark, so one low draw can push a date later. The standardization is within year, so a gap in standard deviations can move when the spread of answers changes and the parties do not.

## Tables

### Table 1. By the point estimates, party gaps stay above 0.25 SD from 1986 on racial resentment, 1998 on abortion and 2012 on religion

Republican minus Democratic identifiers (leaners included) in standard deviations of each attitude in that survey year, ANES 1980-2024, 95% intervals

| Sample | Attitude | Survey year | Party gap (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Respondents |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1980 | −0.02 | −0.13 | 0.08 | 1313 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1982 | −0.09 | −0.21 | 0.03 | 1173 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1984 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1888 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1986 | −0.03 | −0.12 | 0.06 | 1818 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1988 | 0.04 | −0.05 | 0.14 | 1751 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1990 | 0.06 | −0.04 | 0.16 | 1692 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1992 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 2097 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1994 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 1537 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1996 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 1521 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 1998 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 1106 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2000 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1532 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2004 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 931 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2008 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.58 | 893 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2012 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 5068 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2016 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 3630 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2020 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1.02 | 7002 |
| All respondents | Abortion | 2024 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 4666 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 927 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1988 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 1554 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1990 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 857 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1992 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 1947 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1994 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.62 | 1566 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 1998 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 1104 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2000 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.68 | 1348 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2004 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 948 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2008 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 1824 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2012 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 4741 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2016 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 3151 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2020 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.34 | 6495 |
| All respondents | Racial resentment | 2024 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.30 | 4565 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1980 | 0.05 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 1196 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1984 | −0.04 | −0.13 | 0.06 | 1667 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1986 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.13 | 908 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1988 | −0.05 | −0.15 | 0.05 | 1554 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1990 | −0.06 | −0.15 | 0.04 | 1713 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1992 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.09 | 1989 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1994 | 0.04 | −0.07 | 0.15 | 1569 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1996 | −0.01 | −0.12 | 0.10 | 1543 |
| All respondents | Religion | 1998 | 0.03 | −0.10 | 0.16 | 1114 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2000 | 0.08 | −0.03 | 0.19 | 1564 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2002 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 1366 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2004 | 0.11 | −0.02 | 0.24 | 1068 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2008 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 2010 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2012 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 5077 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2016 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 3652 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2020 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 7265 |
| All respondents | Religion | 2024 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 5086 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1980 | −0.02 | −0.13 | 0.08 | 1313 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1982 | −0.09 | −0.21 | 0.03 | 1173 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1984 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1888 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1986 | −0.03 | −0.12 | 0.06 | 1818 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1988 | 0.04 | −0.05 | 0.14 | 1751 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1990 | 0.06 | −0.04 | 0.16 | 1692 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1992 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 2097 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1994 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 1537 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1996 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 1521 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 1998 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 1106 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 2004 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 931 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 2008 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.58 | 893 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 2012 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.70 | 1791 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 2016 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.91 | 1030 |
| Face-to-face only | Abortion | 2024 | 1.09 | 0.94 | 1.24 | 953 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 927 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1988 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 1554 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1990 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 857 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1992 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 1947 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1994 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.62 | 1566 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 1998 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 1104 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 2004 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 948 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 2008 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 1824 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 2012 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.90 | 1694 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 2016 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 1.11 | 940 |
| Face-to-face only | Racial resentment | 2024 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 1.41 | 862 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1980 | 0.05 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 1196 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1984 | −0.04 | −0.13 | 0.06 | 1667 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1986 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.13 | 908 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1988 | −0.05 | −0.15 | 0.05 | 1554 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1990 | −0.06 | −0.15 | 0.04 | 1713 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1992 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.09 | 1989 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1994 | 0.04 | −0.07 | 0.15 | 1569 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1996 | −0.01 | −0.12 | 0.10 | 1543 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 1998 | 0.03 | −0.10 | 0.16 | 1114 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 2004 | 0.11 | −0.02 | 0.24 | 1068 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 2008 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 2010 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 2012 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.35 | 1797 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 2016 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.53 | 1039 |
| Face-to-face only | Religion | 2024 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 966 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1980 | 0.00 | −0.12 | 0.11 | 1092 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1982 | −0.06 | −0.18 | 0.07 | 999 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1984 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 1531 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1986 | 0.01 | −0.09 | 0.11 | 1415 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1988 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 1320 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1990 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 1283 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1992 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 1605 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1994 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 1183 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1996 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 1181 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 1998 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 826 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2000 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.56 | 1144 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2004 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.66 | 672 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2008 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 444 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2012 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 3009 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2016 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 0.90 | 2631 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2020 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.18 | 5147 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Abortion | 2024 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 3389 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1986 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 731 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1988 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 1195 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1990 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 655 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1992 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.45 | 1512 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1994 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 1206 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 1998 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.48 | 826 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2000 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.61 | 1045 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2004 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.74 | 685 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2008 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.85 | 907 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2012 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.93 | 2819 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2016 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2307 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2020 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 4827 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Racial resentment | 2024 | 1.28 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 3350 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1980 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 1001 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1984 | 0.06 | −0.04 | 0.17 | 1358 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1986 | 0.09 | −0.05 | 0.24 | 693 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1988 | 0.07 | −0.04 | 0.18 | 1194 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1990 | 0.04 | −0.07 | 0.14 | 1299 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1992 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 1552 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1994 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 1207 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1996 | 0.10 | −0.02 | 0.22 | 1197 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 1998 | 0.14 | −0.01 | 0.28 | 829 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2000 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 1167 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2002 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.47 | 1065 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2004 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.44 | 758 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2008 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.48 | 990 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2012 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 3012 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2016 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.70 | 2642 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2020 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 5348 |
| White non-Hispanic only | Religion | 2024 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.80 | 3698 |

Views: All respondents (view = All respondents); Face-to-face only (view = Face-to-face only); White non-Hispanic only (view = White non-Hispanic only).

Note: A positive gap means Republican identifiers score higher on the attitude. Abortion is scored so that a higher value means more restrictive, racial resentment so that a higher value means more resentment (mean of four standardized items) and religion so that a higher value means religion is more important. Racial resentment is not asked in 1996 and has only part of its battery in 1998. Abortion in 2008 was asked of part of the sample.

Note: Web respondents enter the ANES in 2012, and 2020 has no weights for face-to-face or web respondents separately. The face-to-face view leaves out 2000 (a study that mixed face-to-face and telephone interviews), 2002 (telephone only) and 2020, and draws no line across 2000 or 2020.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode views)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/gap_timelines.json

### Table 2. Racial resentment, abortion and religion are dated in that order at every rule

First survey year in which the party gap exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later survey, by the point estimate (open dot) and by the lower bound of the 95% interval (solid dot), ANES

| Attitude | Sample | Rule | First reading | Last reading at or below the rule | Point estimate above from | Lower bound above from (sort date) | Upper bound above from | Above the rule at the first reading | Drawn in the chart |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 0.15 SD | 1986 | n/a | 1986 | 1986 | 1986 | yes | yes |
| Racial resentment | White non-Hispanic only | 0.15 SD | 1986 | n/a | 1986 | 1992 | 1986 | yes | yes |
| Racial resentment | Face-to-face only | 0.15 SD | 1986 | n/a | 1986 | 1986 | 1986 | yes | no |
| Abortion | All respondents | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 1990 | 1992 | 1998 | 1990 | no | yes |
| Abortion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 1990 | 1992 | 1996 | 1988 | no | yes |
| Abortion | Face-to-face only | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 1990 | 1992 | 1998 | 1990 | no | no |
| Religion | All respondents | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 1998 | no | yes |
| Religion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 1998 | 2000 | 2008 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Religion | Face-to-face only | 0.15 SD | 1980 | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 | 1998 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 0.25 SD | 1986 | n/a | 1986 | 1992 | 1986 | yes | yes |
| Racial resentment | White non-Hispanic only | 0.25 SD | 1986 | 1990 | 1992 | 2000 | 1986 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | Face-to-face only | 0.25 SD | 1986 | n/a | 1986 | 1992 | 1986 | yes | no |
| Abortion | All respondents | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 1996 | 1998 | 2008 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Abortion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 1990 | 1992 | 2000 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Abortion | Face-to-face only | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 1996 | 1998 | 2008 | 1992 | no | no |
| Religion | All respondents | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2008 | no | yes |
| Religion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 2000 | 2002 | 2012 | 1998 | no | yes |
| Religion | Face-to-face only | 0.25 SD | 1980 | 2012 | 2016 | 2024 | 2008 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 0.35 SD | 1986 | 1990 | 1992 | 1992 | 1986 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | White non-Hispanic only | 0.35 SD | 1986 | 1998 | 2000 | 2004 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | Face-to-face only | 0.35 SD | 1986 | 1990 | 1992 | 1992 | 1986 | no | no |
| Abortion | All respondents | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 2000 | 2004 | 2012 | 1996 | no | yes |
| Abortion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 1996 | 1998 | 2012 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Abortion | Face-to-face only | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 1998 | 2004 | 2012 | 1996 | no | no |
| Religion | All respondents | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | 2012 | no | yes |
| Religion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 2008 | 2012 | 2012 | 2002 | no | yes |
| Religion | Face-to-face only | 0.35 SD | 1980 | 2012 | 2016 | 2024 | 2016 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 0.50 SD | 1986 | 1992 | 1994 | 2004 | 1992 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | White non-Hispanic only | 0.50 SD | 1986 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2000 | no | yes |
| Racial resentment | Face-to-face only | 0.50 SD | 1986 | 1992 | 1994 | 2004 | 1992 | no | no |
| Abortion | All respondents | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2008 | 2012 | 2012 | 2004 | no | yes |
| Abortion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2000 | 2004 | 2012 | 1998 | no | yes |
| Abortion | Face-to-face only | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2004 | no | yes |
| Religion | All respondents | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2020 | 2024 | n/a | 2020 | no | yes |
| Religion | White non-Hispanic only | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2012 | no | yes |
| Religion | Face-to-face only | 0.50 SD | 1980 | 2016 | 2024 | n/a | 2016 | no | yes |

Views: Rule 0.25 SD (drawn = true, rule = 0.25 SD); Rule 0.15 SD (drawn = true, rule = 0.15 SD); Rule 0.35 SD (drawn = true, rule = 0.35 SD); Rule 0.50 SD (drawn = true, rule = 0.50 SD).

Note: * The series is above the rule at its first reading, so the open dot marks that reading and not a crossing, and the date is not identified. A star marks each such row.

Note: A face-to-face row with the same three dates as the all-respondent row is not drawn: that is racial resentment at every rule and abortion at every rule but the highest. Show data lists them. At the highest rule no lower bound stays above the rule through 2024 for religion among all respondents or among face-to-face respondents, so those two rows are not drawn.

Note: Survey years are 2 to 4 years apart, so a date is known to the survey year, not to the month. A date in 2024, the last survey, cannot be tested for staying above the rule.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode views)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/sort_dates.json

### Table 3. Web and face-to-face gaps differ by 0.174 SD or less, and the interval for the difference excludes zero only for racial resentment in 2012

Party gap by interview mode in the years that have both mode weights, difference and each mode, in standard deviations, with 95% intervals, ANES

#### Table 3.1. Difference

Each dot is one web minus face-to-face difference, and 8 of 9 intervals include zero

Web minus face-to-face difference in the party gap (Republican minus Democratic identifiers, leaners included) in standard deviations, with 95% intervals, ANES

| Row | Web minus face-to-face (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Face-to-face respondents | Web respondents |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Abortion, 2012 | 0.110 | −0.042 | 0.262 | 1791 | 3277 |
| Abortion, 2016 | −0.092 | −0.257 | 0.073 | 1030 | 2600 |
| Abortion, 2024 | −0.019 | −0.204 | 0.165 | 953 | 1761 |
| Racial resentment, 2012 | 0.174 | 0.027 | 0.321 | 1694 | 3047 |
| Racial resentment, 2016 | 0.092 | −0.071 | 0.255 | 940 | 2211 |
| Racial resentment, 2024 | 0.001 | −0.179 | 0.181 | 862 | 1581 |
| Religion, 2012 | 0.129 | −0.026 | 0.284 | 1797 | 3280 |
| Religion, 2016 | 0.047 | −0.124 | 0.219 | 1039 | 2613 |
| Religion, 2024 | −0.113 | −0.317 | 0.090 | 966 | 1850 |

#### Table 3.2. Each mode

The two modes lie on either side of the sort-date rule only for religion in 2012

Party gap (Republican minus Democratic identifiers, leaners included) in standard deviations, face-to-face interviews (open dot) and web interviews (solid dot), with 95% intervals, ANES

| Row | Face-to-face gap (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Face-to-face respondents | Web gap (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Web respondents |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Abortion, 2012 | 0.577 | 0.452 | 0.702 | 1791 | 0.687 | 0.601 | 0.774 | 3277 |
| Abortion, 2016 | 0.768 | 0.628 | 0.908 | 1030 | 0.676 | 0.589 | 0.763 | 2600 |
| Abortion, 2024 | 1.092 | 0.942 | 1.243 | 953 | 1.073 | 0.967 | 1.180 | 1761 |
| Racial resentment, 2012 | 0.784 | 0.664 | 0.905 | 1694 | 0.958 | 0.874 | 1.043 | 3047 |
| Racial resentment, 2016 | 0.969 | 0.830 | 1.107 | 940 | 1.061 | 0.976 | 1.146 | 2211 |
| Racial resentment, 2024 | 1.264 | 1.118 | 1.411 | 862 | 1.265 | 1.160 | 1.370 | 1581 |
| Religion, 2012 | 0.219 | 0.092 | 0.347 | 1797 | 0.348 | 0.260 | 0.437 | 3280 |
| Religion, 2016 | 0.380 | 0.232 | 0.528 | 1039 | 0.427 | 0.340 | 0.515 | 2613 |
| Religion, 2024 | 0.622 | 0.455 | 0.789 | 966 | 0.509 | 0.393 | 0.625 | 1850 |

Note: The ANES mode weights exist for 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2024. The 2008 sample was face-to-face only and 2020 has no mode weights.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 2012, 2016 and 2024; weighted (weight_ftf and weight_web)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/mode_check.json

### Table 4. The GSS abortion gap passes 0.25 SD 12 years after the ANES gap by the point estimate and 4 years after by the lower bound

Republican minus Democratic identifiers (leaners included) in standard deviations of each survey's item in that year, ANES, GSS and CES, 95% intervals

| Attitude | Survey and measure | Survey year | Party gap (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Respondents |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Abortion | ANES | 1980 | −0.02 | −0.13 | 0.08 | 1313 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1982 | −0.09 | −0.21 | 0.03 | 1173 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1984 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1888 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1986 | −0.03 | −0.12 | 0.06 | 1818 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1988 | 0.04 | −0.05 | 0.14 | 1751 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1990 | 0.06 | −0.04 | 0.16 | 1692 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1992 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 2097 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1994 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 1537 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1996 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 1521 |
| Abortion | ANES | 1998 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 1106 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2000 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1532 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2004 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 931 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2008 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.58 | 893 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2012 | 0.65 | 0.58 | 0.72 | 5068 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2016 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 3630 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2020 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1.02 | 7002 |
| Abortion | ANES | 2024 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 4666 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1977 | −0.13 | −0.26 | −0.01 | 1299 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1978 | −0.08 | −0.22 | 0.06 | 1263 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1980 | 0.05 | −0.09 | 0.19 | 1165 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1982 | −0.02 | −0.16 | 0.12 | 1532 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1983 | −0.16 | −0.30 | −0.02 | 1322 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1984 | −0.10 | −0.24 | 0.04 | 1245 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1985 | 0.04 | −0.09 | 0.17 | 1322 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1987 | −0.05 | −0.18 | 0.08 | 1527 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1988 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 817 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1989 | 0.09 | −0.06 | 0.24 | 861 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1990 | 0.13 | −0.03 | 0.29 | 766 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1991 | 0.05 | −0.10 | 0.21 | 816 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1993 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 872 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1994 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 1647 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1996 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 1513 |
| Abortion | GSS | 1998 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 1449 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2000 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 1378 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2002 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 719 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2004 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.53 | 700 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2006 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.53 | 1486 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2008 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 1051 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2010 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.54 | 968 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2012 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.64 | 966 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2014 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.60 | 1290 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2016 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.56 | 1465 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2018 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 1189 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2021 | 0.74 | 0.59 | 0.88 | 1044 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2022 | 1.08 | 0.90 | 1.26 | 831 |
| Abortion | GSS | 2024 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 1.09 | 1534 |
| Abortion | CES | 2014 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 44398 |
| Abortion | CES | 2016 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 51939 |
| Abortion | CES | 2018 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.09 | 49255 |
| Abortion | CES | 2020 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.13 | 49758 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1986 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 927 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1988 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 1554 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1990 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 857 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1992 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 1947 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1994 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.62 | 1566 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 1998 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.63 | 1104 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2000 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 0.68 | 1348 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2004 | 0.74 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 948 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2008 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 1824 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2012 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 4741 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2016 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 3151 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2020 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.34 | 6495 |
| Racial resentment | ANES | 2024 | 1.23 | 1.16 | 1.30 | 4565 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 1994 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 1211 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 1996 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 1608 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 1998 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 1478 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2000 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 1417 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2002 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.49 | 698 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2004 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 742 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2006 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 1556 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2008 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 1083 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2010 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.69 | 1134 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2012 | 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.66 | 997 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2014 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.66 | 1282 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2016 | 0.63 | 0.52 | 0.75 | 1496 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2018 | 0.72 | 0.58 | 0.86 | 1182 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2021 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1.15 | 2044 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2022 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 1.03 | 1703 |
| Racial resentment | GSS | 2024 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1538 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1980 | 0.05 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 1196 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1984 | −0.04 | −0.13 | 0.06 | 1667 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1986 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.13 | 908 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1988 | −0.05 | −0.15 | 0.05 | 1554 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1990 | −0.06 | −0.15 | 0.04 | 1713 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1992 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.09 | 1989 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1994 | 0.04 | −0.07 | 0.15 | 1569 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1996 | −0.01 | −0.12 | 0.10 | 1543 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 1998 | 0.03 | −0.10 | 0.16 | 1114 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2000 | 0.08 | −0.03 | 0.19 | 1564 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2002 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 1366 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2004 | 0.11 | −0.02 | 0.24 | 1068 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2008 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 2010 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2012 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 5077 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2016 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 3652 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2020 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 7265 |
| Religion | ANES importance | 2024 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 5086 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1977 | 0.06 | −0.07 | 0.18 | 1333 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1978 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 1293 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1980 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1204 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1982 | 0.04 | −0.09 | 0.18 | 1607 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1983 | 0.03 | −0.10 | 0.17 | 1386 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1984 | 0.09 | −0.05 | 0.23 | 1275 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1985 | 0.01 | −0.12 | 0.15 | 1364 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1986 | 0.09 | −0.03 | 0.22 | 1269 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1987 | 0.05 | −0.07 | 0.17 | 1586 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1988 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 1288 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1989 | 0.08 | −0.04 | 0.20 | 1326 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1990 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 1170 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1991 | 0.04 | −0.08 | 0.16 | 1289 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1993 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 1345 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1994 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 2490 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1996 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 2328 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 1998 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 2251 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2000 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 2139 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2002 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 2147 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2004 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.30 | 2292 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2006 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 3415 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2008 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 1646 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2010 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 1617 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2012 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 1530 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2014 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 1945 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2016 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 2284 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2018 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 1816 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2021 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 3041 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2022 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 2551 |
| Religion | GSS attendance | 2024 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 2343 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2008 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 28578 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2010 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 47850 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2012 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 45816 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2014 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 44749 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2016 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 51957 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2018 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 49085 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2020 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 49754 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2022 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 49506 |
| Religion | CES importance | 2024 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 50837 |

Views: Abortion (attitude = Abortion); Racial resentment (attitude = Racial resentment); Religion (attitude = Religion).

Note: ANES: four-category abortion legality, racial resentment index, importance of religion. GSS: abortion for any reason, whether Black Americans should work their way up without special favors, church attendance. CES: always-allow abortion (2014 to 2020) and importance of religion (2008 to 2024), even years only. Each item is standardized within survey and year.

Note: GSS interviews from 2021 include web respondents (87.3% of the 2021 respondents). In 2024 the face-to-face and web gaps are 0.84 and 1.06 SD on abortion, 0.73 and 1.14 on the work-your-way-up item and 0.40 and 0.51 on church attendance. The web gap is higher on all three items, beyond sampling error on the work-your-way-up item only.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File 1980-2024, General Social Survey 1977-2024 and Cooperative Election Study 2008-2024; weighted (VCF0009z, weight_use, weight_cumulative)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/other_surveys.json

### Table 5. Sort dates differ across surveys and items for the same attitude

Survey years in which the party gap passes the sort-date rule and stays above it, by survey and measure, all respondents

| Survey | Measure | Lower bound above the rule from | Point estimate passes the rule between | Upper bound above the rule from |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ANES | Abortion, 4-category | 2008 | 1996 to 1998 | 1992 |
| GSS | Abortion for any reason, answer no | 2012 | 2008 to 2010 | 1993 |
| CES | Abortion, always allow | at or before 2014 | at or before 2014 | at or before 2014 |
| ANES | Racial resentment, 4-item index | 1992 | at or before 1986 | at or before 1986 |
| GSS | Work your way up (one item) | 2010 | at or before 1994 | at or before 1994 |
| ANES | Religion, importance | 2016 | 2008 to 2012 | 2008 |
| ANES | Church attendance, attends often | 2008 | 2004 to 2008 | 1992 |
| GSS | Church attendance, 0 to 8 scale | 2024 | 2004 to 2006 | 1998 |
| CES | Religion, importance | at or before 2008 | at or before 2008 | at or before 2008 |
| ANES | Economy got better over the past year | none | none | none |

Note: A date given as at or before a year belongs to a series that is above the rule at its first reading, so the date is not identified. The CES gaps are above the rule at their first readings, in 2008 for religion and 2014 for abortion.

Note: ANES attendance ends in 2020: in the Cumulative Data File the attendance question has an answer for 49.1% of respondents in 2024 against 99.0% in 2020, so 2024 is not comparable.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File 1980-2024, General Social Survey 1977-2024 and Cooperative Election Study 2008-2024; weighted (VCF0009z, weight_use, weight_cumulative)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/dates_table.json

### Table 6. The share saying religion is important fell among Democrats and stayed level among Republicans, so the pooled trend hides the party gap

Weighted percent giving one answer to the question chosen to stand for each attitude, by party (leaners included) and for all respondents, ANES 1980-2024, 95% intervals

| Attitude | Group | Survey year | Percent | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Respondents |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1980 | 36.8 | 34.4 | 39.2 | 1547 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1982 | 36.4 | 33.9 | 39.0 | 1359 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1984 | 36.4 | 34.4 | 38.5 | 2171 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1986 | 39.3 | 37.2 | 41.4 | 2120 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1988 | 35.6 | 33.5 | 37.7 | 1996 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1990 | 40.2 | 38.0 | 42.4 | 1932 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1992 | 46.8 | 44.8 | 48.8 | 2406 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1994 | 40.5 | 37.9 | 43.1 | 1730 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1996 | 40.3 | 37.6 | 42.9 | 1679 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 1998 | 40.6 | 37.7 | 43.6 | 1258 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2000 | 40.3 | 37.8 | 42.9 | 1758 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2004 | 35.9 | 32.7 | 39.1 | 1047 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2008 | 40.1 | 36.4 | 43.8 | 1031 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2012 | 44.4 | 42.7 | 46.2 | 5855 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2016 | 45.0 | 43.2 | 46.8 | 4207 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2020 | 49.7 | 48.2 | 51.2 | 7900 |
| Abortion | All respondents | 2024 | 48.9 | 46.9 | 50.9 | 5021 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1980 | 37.3 | 34.0 | 40.7 | 801 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1982 | 36.0 | 32.6 | 39.5 | 741 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1984 | 39.4 | 36.5 | 42.4 | 1032 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1986 | 40.9 | 37.9 | 43.9 | 1061 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1988 | 37.0 | 33.9 | 40.1 | 938 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1990 | 43.3 | 40.2 | 46.4 | 993 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1992 | 52.8 | 49.9 | 55.6 | 1201 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1994 | 46.4 | 42.5 | 50.2 | 810 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1996 | 46.1 | 42.4 | 49.8 | 879 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 1998 | 47.2 | 43.0 | 51.4 | 647 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2000 | 47.2 | 43.5 | 50.9 | 868 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2004 | 44.6 | 39.7 | 49.4 | 498 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2008 | 51.0 | 45.9 | 56.2 | 600 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2012 | 59.0 | 56.5 | 61.4 | 3081 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2016 | 60.4 | 57.7 | 63.0 | 1915 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2020 | 72.1 | 70.1 | 74.1 | 3713 |
| Abortion | Democrats | 2024 | 73.7 | 71.2 | 76.2 | 2459 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1980 | 33.8 | 29.7 | 37.9 | 512 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1982 | 36.1 | 31.6 | 40.6 | 432 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1984 | 32.8 | 29.7 | 36.0 | 856 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1986 | 38.2 | 34.7 | 41.6 | 757 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1988 | 33.5 | 30.2 | 36.7 | 813 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1990 | 38.6 | 35.0 | 42.2 | 699 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1992 | 38.7 | 35.5 | 41.9 | 896 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1994 | 33.9 | 30.1 | 37.7 | 727 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1996 | 33.7 | 29.6 | 37.9 | 642 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 1998 | 31.7 | 27.1 | 36.4 | 459 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2000 | 31.0 | 27.2 | 34.9 | 664 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2004 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 30.2 | 433 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2008 | 29.3 | 23.3 | 35.3 | 293 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2012 | 29.0 | 26.4 | 31.6 | 1987 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2016 | 27.5 | 24.9 | 30.0 | 1715 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2020 | 24.0 | 22.1 | 25.9 | 3289 |
| Abortion | Republicans | 2024 | 21.4 | 18.9 | 23.8 | 2207 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 1986 | 55.4 | 52.4 | 58.4 | 1062 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 1988 | 57.6 | 55.2 | 59.9 | 1746 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 1990 | 54.3 | 51.2 | 57.4 | 967 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 1992 | 61.1 | 59.1 | 63.1 | 2227 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 1994 | 63.4 | 60.9 | 65.9 | 1749 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2000 | 51.8 | 49.0 | 54.6 | 1532 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2004 | 56.3 | 53.0 | 59.6 | 1058 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2008 | 57.7 | 55.1 | 60.4 | 2079 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2012 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 52.7 | 5484 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2016 | 40.3 | 38.4 | 42.2 | 3626 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2020 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 31.9 | 7367 |
| Racial resentment | All respondents | 2024 | 30.8 | 28.9 | 32.7 | 4902 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 1986 | 50.1 | 45.9 | 54.3 | 549 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 1988 | 52.9 | 49.5 | 56.3 | 828 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 1990 | 52.2 | 47.7 | 56.7 | 479 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 1992 | 54.4 | 51.4 | 57.3 | 1100 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 1994 | 58.2 | 54.5 | 62.0 | 826 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2000 | 45.2 | 41.2 | 49.3 | 743 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2004 | 46.0 | 41.2 | 50.9 | 502 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2008 | 49.3 | 45.7 | 52.9 | 1212 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2012 | 40.3 | 37.8 | 42.8 | 2880 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2016 | 25.8 | 23.2 | 28.3 | 1669 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2020 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 15.3 | 3441 |
| Racial resentment | Democrats | 2024 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 17.0 | 2393 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 1986 | 61.0 | 56.0 | 65.9 | 374 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 1988 | 61.4 | 57.9 | 65.0 | 718 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 1990 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 61.2 | 372 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 1992 | 68.7 | 65.5 | 71.8 | 841 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 1994 | 68.7 | 65.0 | 72.3 | 733 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2000 | 56.8 | 52.4 | 61.2 | 595 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2004 | 66.9 | 62.2 | 71.7 | 438 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2008 | 69.9 | 65.6 | 74.2 | 598 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2012 | 63.8 | 60.9 | 66.6 | 1852 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2016 | 57.4 | 54.4 | 60.4 | 1474 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2020 | 49.2 | 46.9 | 51.5 | 3042 |
| Racial resentment | Republicans | 2024 | 47.7 | 44.7 | 50.8 | 2167 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1980 | 75.3 | 73.0 | 77.5 | 1398 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1984 | 79.3 | 77.5 | 81.1 | 1911 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1986 | 78.5 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 1071 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1988 | 77.8 | 75.9 | 79.8 | 1760 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1990 | 79.2 | 77.4 | 81.0 | 1958 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1992 | 78.5 | 76.8 | 80.2 | 2295 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1994 | 76.9 | 74.7 | 79.1 | 1760 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1996 | 78.2 | 76.0 | 80.4 | 1706 |
| Religion | All respondents | 1998 | 77.2 | 74.7 | 79.7 | 1270 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2000 | 76.2 | 74.0 | 78.4 | 1799 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2002 | 75.4 | 72.7 | 78.1 | 1504 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2004 | 77.3 | 74.7 | 79.9 | 1203 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2008 | 71.5 | 69.2 | 73.8 | 2309 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2012 | 67.1 | 65.5 | 68.7 | 5882 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2016 | 65.1 | 63.4 | 66.8 | 4243 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2020 | 66.6 | 65.2 | 68.0 | 8249 |
| Religion | All respondents | 2024 | 65.8 | 64.0 | 67.7 | 5494 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1980 | 75.2 | 72.0 | 78.4 | 718 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1984 | 79.9 | 77.3 | 82.5 | 896 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1986 | 80.2 | 76.7 | 83.6 | 524 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1988 | 80.4 | 77.7 | 83.1 | 831 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1990 | 81.3 | 78.9 | 83.7 | 1004 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1992 | 79.5 | 77.1 | 81.9 | 1138 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1994 | 77.1 | 73.9 | 80.3 | 829 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1996 | 78.9 | 75.9 | 81.9 | 891 |
| Religion | Democrats | 1998 | 76.8 | 73.2 | 80.3 | 652 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2000 | 75.4 | 72.2 | 78.6 | 887 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2002 | 72.1 | 68.0 | 76.2 | 698 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2004 | 75.0 | 71.1 | 78.9 | 588 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2008 | 68.6 | 65.4 | 71.8 | 1358 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2012 | 61.1 | 58.7 | 63.5 | 3086 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2016 | 57.1 | 54.4 | 59.8 | 1930 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2020 | 57.1 | 54.9 | 59.2 | 3830 |
| Religion | Democrats | 2024 | 54.0 | 51.3 | 56.8 | 2636 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1980 | 77.4 | 73.7 | 81.2 | 478 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1984 | 78.5 | 75.6 | 81.4 | 771 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1986 | 80.2 | 76.2 | 84.2 | 384 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1988 | 78.3 | 75.3 | 81.3 | 723 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1990 | 79.0 | 76.0 | 82.0 | 709 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1992 | 79.5 | 76.8 | 82.2 | 851 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1994 | 78.8 | 75.5 | 82.0 | 740 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1996 | 78.5 | 74.9 | 82.0 | 652 |
| Religion | Republicans | 1998 | 77.8 | 73.7 | 82.0 | 462 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2000 | 78.9 | 75.5 | 82.2 | 677 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2002 | 79.7 | 76.0 | 83.4 | 668 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2004 | 79.5 | 75.6 | 83.5 | 480 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2008 | 78.1 | 74.4 | 81.8 | 652 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2012 | 75.3 | 72.8 | 77.7 | 1991 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2016 | 77.0 | 74.6 | 79.4 | 1722 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2020 | 78.7 | 76.9 | 80.6 | 3435 |
| Religion | Republicans | 2024 | 78.6 | 76.2 | 80.9 | 2450 |

Views: Religion (attitude = Religion); Abortion (attitude = Abortion); Racial resentment (attitude = Racial resentment).

Note: Questions chosen to stand for each attitude: religion important (yes or no); abortion: by law a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion; racial resentment: agree strongly or somewhat that if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/party_levels.json

### Table 7. The economic gap follows the president's party in all 18 survey years

Republican minus Democratic identifiers (leaners included) in standard deviations of the answer to whether the national economy got better over the past year, ANES 1980-2024, 95% intervals

| Survey year | President | President's party | Party gap (SD) | Lower 95% bound | Upper 95% bound | Respondents |
| ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1980 | Carter | Democratic | −0.25 | −0.35 | −0.15 | 1341 |
| 1982 | Reagan | Republican | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.69 | 1193 |
| 1984 | Reagan | Republican | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.94 | 1881 |
| 1986 | Reagan | Republican | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 1798 |
| 1988 | Reagan | Republican | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.65 | 1721 |
| 1990 | George H. W. Bush | Republican | 0.07 | −0.03 | 0.17 | 1710 |
| 1992 | George H. W. Bush | Republican | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 2135 |
| 1994 | Clinton | Democratic | −0.11 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 1560 |
| 1996 | Clinton | Democratic | −0.45 | −0.56 | −0.34 | 1537 |
| 1998 | Clinton | Democratic | −0.35 | −0.47 | −0.22 | 1114 |
| 2000 | Clinton | Democratic | −0.51 | −0.61 | −0.40 | 1555 |
| 2002 | George W. Bush | Republican | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.47 | 1368 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Republican | 0.93 | 0.81 | 1.05 | 1064 |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | Republican | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 2013 |
| 2012 | Obama | Democratic | −0.97 | −1.03 | −0.90 | 5083 |
| 2016 | Obama | Democratic | −0.83 | −0.90 | −0.76 | 3660 |
| 2020 | Trump | Republican | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 7254 |
| 2024 | Biden | Democratic | −1.02 | −1.09 | −0.95 | 4877 |

Note: Presidential terms are from the historical record, not from the ANES. Each survey year is assigned the president recorded for that year in the ANES file.

Source: ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode views)

Data: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/economy_gap.json

## All estimates

Every fact in facts.json (144), sorted by id.

| Fact id | Value | Unit | Estimand | Population | Period | Interval | n | Weights | Source | Note |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | --- |
| ab_all_1980 | 36.8% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | all respondents with an answer | 1980 | 95% CI 34.4% to 39.2% | 1,547 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_all_2024 | 48.9% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | all respondents with an answer | 2024 | 95% CI 46.9% to 50.9% | 5,021 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_dem_1980 | 37.3% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI 34.0% to 40.7% | 801 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_dem_2024 | 73.7% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 71.2% to 76.2% | 2,459 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_dem_nonwhite_2000 | 36.9% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Democratic identifiers, leaners included, Black, Hispanic and other respondents | 2000 | 95% CI 30.7% to 43.1% | 294 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_dem_white_2000 | 52.9% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Democratic identifiers, leaners included, White non-Hispanic | 2000 | 95% CI 48.3% to 57.5% | 574 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_rep_1980 | 33.8% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI 29.7% to 37.9% | 512 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ab_rep_2024 | 21.4% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 18.9% to 23.8% | 2,207 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_bound | 2008 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_bound_white | 2000 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), abortion (higher = more restrictive), White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_chg_9294 | −0.06 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | change in the abortion party gap from 1992 to 1994 (1994 minus 1992), standard errors of the two estimates combined in quadrature | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1992 to 1994 | 95% CI −0.20 to 0.07 |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_1980 | −0.02 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI −0.13 to 0.08 | 1,313 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_1990 | 0.06 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1990 | 95% CI −0.04 to 0.16 | 1,692 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_1992 | 0.26 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1992 | 95% CI 0.17 to 0.34 | 2,097 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_1994 | 0.19 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1994 | 95% CI 0.08 to 0.30 | 1,537 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_1996 | 0.247 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion item (higher = more restrictive), three decimals to show it lies under the rule | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1996 | 95% CI 0.134 to 0.359 | 1,521 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_gap_2024 | 1.06 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.99 to 1.14 | 4,666 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_lag | 10 | years | years between the point-estimate date and the lower-bound date for abortion (higher = more restrictive) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_margin_1996 | 0.003 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | sort-date rule minus the 1996 party gap in the standardized abortion item (how far the 1996 estimate lies under the rule) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1996 |   | 1,521 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_margin_2008 | 0.009 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | lower 95% bound of the party gap in the standardized abortion item minus the sort-date rule (the margin by which the 2008 lower bound clears the rule) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2008 |   | 893 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_n_2008 | 893 | respondents | respondents in the two parties with an abortion answer (the item went to part of the sample) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, asked the abortion item | 2008 |   | 893 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_point | 1998 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_point_r15 | 1992 | survey year | sort date under a 0.15 SD rule (point), abortion (higher = more restrictive) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_point_r50 | 2012 | survey year | sort date under a 0.50 SD rule (point), abortion (higher = more restrictive) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_point_white | 1992 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, abortion (higher = more restrictive), White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_prev | 1996 | survey year | last survey year before the point estimate stays above the rule, abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_upper | 1992 | survey year | first survey year whose upper 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (the earliest date the interval allows), abortion (higher = more restrictive), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| abortion_white_gap_2024 | 1.16 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized abortion (higher = more restrictive), White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.08 to 1.24 | 3,389 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_attend_last | 2020 | survey year | last survey year of the ANES attendance series (2024 attendance coding is unusable) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| anes_attend_point | 2008 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, ANES church attendance (attends often), series ends 2020 | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| attend_answered_2020 | 99.0% | percent of respondents | share of respondents with an answer to the church attendance question (unweighted count) | respondents in the ANES Cumulative Data File in the study year | 2020 |   | 8,280 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| attend_answered_2024 | 49.1% | percent of respondents | share of respondents with an answer to the church attendance question (unweighted count) | respondents in the ANES Cumulative Data File in the study year | 2024 |   | 5,521 | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| black_dem_share_1986 | 93.7% | percent of respondents | weighted share identifying with or leaning toward the Democratic Party | Black non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, with a racial resentment score | 1986 | 95% CI 89.7% to 97.7% | 143 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| black_rr_1986 | −0.84 | standard deviations of the racial resentment index among all respondents in 1986 | weighted mean of the standardized racial resentment index | Black non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI −0.99 to −0.69 | 143 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| ces_abortion_first | 0.86 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized always-allow abortion item at the first CES year with the item | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the CES, leaners included | 2014 | 95% CI 0.83 to 0.88 | 44,398 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_anes_diff_2008 | 0.28 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | CES minus ANES party gap on the importance of religion in 2008, standard errors combined in quadrature | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the CES and the ANES | 2008 | 95% CI 0.17 to 0.39 |   | weight_cumulative and weight (VCF0009z) | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_religion_first | 0.49 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized importance of religion item at the first CES year with the item | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the CES, leaners included | 2008 | 95% CI 0.46 to 0.52 | 28,578 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| ces_religion_gap_2024 | 0.75 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized importance-of-religion item | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the CES, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 | 50,837 | weight_cumulative | Cooperative Election Study |   |
| econ_ci_flips | 5 | transitions | count of of those transitions, the ones at which both readings have a 95% interval that excludes zero on the side of the president's party | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_ci_match | 16 | survey years | count of survey years in which the 95% interval excludes zero on the side of the president's party | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_flips | 6 | transitions | count of party-gap sign changes (point estimates) at those transitions | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_match | 18 | survey years | count of survey years in which the point estimate shows the president's party as the more optimistic | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_miss_a | 1990 | survey year | survey year whose 95% interval for the economic party gap includes zero (the president's party is not distinguishable from the other party) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_miss_b | 1994 | survey year | survey year whose 95% interval for the economic party gap includes zero (the president's party is not distinguishable from the other party) | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_readings | 18 | survey years | count of survey years with the retrospective economy item | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| econ_transitions | 6 | transitions | count of changes in the party of the president between consecutive survey years | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| economy_gap_2020 | 0.89 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the retrospective economy item (higher = more optimistic), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2020 | 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94 | 7,254 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| economy_gap_2024 | −1.02 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the retrospective economy item (higher = more optimistic), all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI −1.09 to −0.95 | 4,877 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| gss_ab_after_anes_bound | 4 | years | years from the ANES lower-bound date to the GSS lower-bound date for abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the ANES and the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use and weight (VCF0009z) | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_ab_after_anes_point | 12 | years | years from the ANES point-estimate date to the GSS point-estimate date for abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the ANES and the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use and weight (VCF0009z) | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_2024_ftf | 0.84 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized abortion-for-any-reason item, ftf interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, face-to-face interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.63 to 1.06 | 518 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_2024_web | 1.06 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized abortion-for-any-reason item, web interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, web interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.90 to 1.22 | 832 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_bound | 2012 | survey year | first GSS year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it, abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_gap_1977 | −0.13 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977 | 95% CI −0.26 to −0.01 | 1,299 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_gap_2008 | 0.24 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2008 | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.39 | 1,051 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_gap_2024 | 0.96 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.84 to 1.09 | 1,534 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_point | 2010 | survey year | first GSS year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_abortion_prev | 2008 | survey year | last GSS year before the point estimate stays above the rule, abortion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_att_after_anes_bound | 8 | years | years from the ANES importance lower-bound date to the GSS attendance lower-bound date | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the ANES and the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use and weight (VCF0009z) | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_att_before_anes_point | 6 | years | years from the GSS attendance point-estimate date to the ANES importance point-estimate date | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the ANES and the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use and weight (VCF0009z) | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_2024_diff | 0.41 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | web minus face-to-face difference in the work-your-way-up party gap, standard errors combined in quadrature | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS | 2024 | 95% CI 0.13 to 0.68 |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_2024_ftf | 0.73 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized work-your-way-up item, ftf interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, face-to-face interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.51 to 0.95 | 532 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_2024_web | 1.14 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized work-your-way-up item, web interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, web interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.97 to 1.30 | 821 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_bound | 2010 | survey year | first GSS year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it, race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_first | 1994 | survey year | first GSS year in the series for race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_gap_1994 | 0.34 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1994 | 95% CI 0.22 to 0.47 | 1,211 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_gap_2018 | 0.72 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2018 | 95% CI 0.58 to 0.86 | 1,182 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_gap_2021 | 1.06 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2021 | 95% CI 0.97 to 1.15 | 2,044 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_race_gap_2024 | 0.94 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for race | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.81 to 1.07 | 1,538 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_2024_ftf | 0.40 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized church attendance item, ftf interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, face-to-face interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.21 to 0.59 | 813 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_2024_web | 0.51 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the standardized church attendance item, web interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, web interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.36 to 0.67 | 1,252 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_bound | 2024 | survey year | first GSS year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it, religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_gap_2024 | 0.44 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized GSS item for religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.33 to 0.55 | 2,343 | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_point | 2006 | survey year | first GSS year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_religion_prev | 2004 | survey year | last GSS year before the point estimate stays above the rule, religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers in the GSS, leaners included | 1977-2024 |   |   | weight_use | General Social Survey |   |
| gss_web_share_2021 | 87.3% | percent of respondents | share of interviews conducted by web (unweighted count) | all GSS respondents in 2021 | 2021 |   | 4,032 | none (count) | General Social Survey |   |
| mode_expected_by_chance | 0.45 | comparisons | expected number of the 95% intervals that exclude zero by chance alone if no mode difference existed (0.05 times the number of comparisons) | three attitudes in 2012, 2016 and 2024 | 2012-2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_max_bound | 0.32 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | largest distance from zero of an end of the 95% interval for the web minus face-to-face difference, among the comparisons whose interval includes zero | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012-2024 |   |   | weight_web and weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_max_diff | 0.174 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | largest absolute web minus face-to-face difference in the party gap across the nine comparisons | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012-2024 |   |   | weight_web and weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_n_cmp | 9 | comparisons | count of web minus face-to-face comparisons | three attitudes in 2012, 2016 and 2024 | 2012-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_n_zero | 8 | comparisons | count of comparisons whose 95% interval for the web minus face-to-face difference includes zero | three attitudes in 2012, 2016 and 2024 | 2012-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_race_2012_diff | 0.174 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | web minus face-to-face difference in the racial resentment party gap, each mode standardized within itself | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012 | 95% CI 0.027 to 0.321 | 4,741 | weight_web and weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_race_2012_ftf | 0.784 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | racial resentment party gap, face-to-face only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 2012 | 95% CI 0.664 to 0.905 | 1,694 | weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_race_2012_web | 0.958 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | racial resentment party gap, web only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, web interviews | 2012 | 95% CI 0.874 to 1.043 | 3,047 | weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rel_2012_diff | 0.13 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | web minus face-to-face difference in the importance-of-religion party gap, each mode standardized within itself | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012 | 95% CI −0.03 to 0.28 | 5,077 | weight_web and weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rel_2012_ftf | 0.22 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | importance-of-religion party gap, face-to-face only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 2012 | 95% CI 0.09 to 0.35 | 1,797 | weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rel_2012_web | 0.35 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | importance-of-religion party gap, web only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, web interviews | 2012 | 95% CI 0.26 to 0.44 | 3,280 | weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rel_2024_ftf | 0.62 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | importance-of-religion party gap, face-to-face only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.45 to 0.79 | 966 | weight_ftf | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| mode_rel_2024_web | 0.51 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | importance-of-religion party gap, web only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, web interviews | 2024 | 95% CI 0.39 to 0.62 | 1,850 | weight_web | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_bound | 1992 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_bound_white | 2000 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the racial resentment index, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_boundprev | 1990 | survey year | last survey year before the lower bound stays above the rule, the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_first | 1986 | survey year | first survey year in the series for the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_gap_1986 | 0.37 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI 0.24 to 0.49 | 927 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_gap_2008 | 0.73 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2008 | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.84 | 1,824 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_gap_2012 | 0.89 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012 | 95% CI 0.82 to 0.96 | 4,741 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_gap_2020 | 1.29 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2020 | 95% CI 1.24 to 1.34 | 6,495 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_gap_2024 | 1.23 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.16 to 1.30 | 4,565 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_point_r50 | 1994 | survey year | sort date under a 0.50 SD rule (point), the racial resentment index | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_point_white | 1992 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, the racial resentment index, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_prev_white | 1990 | survey year | last survey year before the point estimate stays above the rule, the racial resentment index, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_white_gap_1986 | 0.19 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI 0.05 to 0.34 | 731 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| race_white_gap_2024 | 1.28 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the racial resentment index, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 1.20 to 1.36 | 3,350 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_after_ab_bound | 8 | years | years between the abortion date and the religion date, lower bounds | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_after_ab_point | 14 | years | years between the abortion date and the religion date, point estimates | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_all_1980 | 75.3% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | all respondents with an answer | 1980 | 95% CI 73.0% to 77.5% | 1,398 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_all_2024 | 65.8% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | all respondents with an answer | 2024 | 95% CI 64.0% to 67.7% | 5,494 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_dem_1980 | 75.2% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI 72.0% to 78.4% | 718 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_dem_2024 | 54.0% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 51.3% to 56.8% | 2,636 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_dem_nonwhite_2000 | 85.1% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Democratic identifiers, leaners included, Black, Hispanic and other respondents | 2000 | 95% CI 80.6% to 89.7% | 302 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_dem_white_2000 | 70.0% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Democratic identifiers, leaners included, White non-Hispanic | 2000 | 95% CI 65.8% to 74.1% | 585 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_rep_1980 | 77.4% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI 73.7% to 81.2% | 478 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rel_rep_2024 | 78.6% | percent of respondents | weighted share saying religion is important in their life | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 76.2% to 80.9% | 2,450 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_2024_five | 0.57 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the five-point importance-of-religion item, ANES 2024 Time Series | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.50 to 0.65 | 5,086 | V240107a (pre-election) | ANES 2024 Time Series |   |
| religion_bound | 2016 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_bound_ftf | 2024 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the importance of religion, face-to-face interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight_ftf on face-to-face interviews (weight before 2008) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_bound_white | 2012 | survey year | first survey year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (sort date), the importance of religion, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_ftf_gap_2016 | 0.38 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, face-to-face interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 2016 | 95% CI 0.23 to 0.53 | 1,039 | weight_ftf on face-to-face interviews (weight before 2008) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_gap_1980 | 0.05 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980 | 95% CI −0.06 to 0.16 | 1,196 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_gap_2000 | 0.08 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2000 | 95% CI −0.03 to 0.19 | 1,564 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_gap_2008 | 0.21 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2008 | 95% CI 0.10 to 0.32 | 2,010 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_gap_2012 | 0.30 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2012 | 95% CI 0.23 to 0.37 | 5,077 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_gap_2024 | 0.52 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.44 to 0.59 | 5,086 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_lag | 4 | years | years between the point-estimate date and the lower-bound date for the importance of religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_point | 2012 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_point_ftf | 2016 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, the importance of religion, face-to-face interviews only | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included, face-to-face interviews | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight_ftf on face-to-face interviews (weight before 2008) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_point_r15 | 2008 | survey year | sort date under a 0.15 SD rule (point), the importance of religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_point_r50 | 2024 | survey year | sort date under a 0.50 SD rule (point), the importance of religion | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_point_white | 2002 | survey year | first survey year whose point estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it, the importance of religion, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_prev | 2008 | survey year | last survey year before the point estimate stays above the rule, the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_upper | 2008 | survey year | first survey year whose upper 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it (the earliest date the interval allows), the importance of religion, all respondents, all interview modes | Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1980-2024 |   |   | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| religion_white_gap_2024 | 0.71 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | party gap in the within-year standardized the importance of religion, White non-Hispanic respondents | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 0.62 to 0.80 | 3,698 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_all_1986 | 55.4% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | all respondents with an answer | 1986 | 95% CI 52.4% to 58.4% | 1,062 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_all_2024 | 30.8% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | all respondents with an answer | 2024 | 95% CI 28.9% to 32.7% | 4,902 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_dem_1986 | 50.1% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI 45.9% to 54.3% | 549 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_dem_2024 | 14.9% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 12.8% to 17.0% | 2,393 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_rep_1986 | 61.0% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI 56.0% to 65.9% | 374 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rr_rep_2024 | 47.7% | percent of respondents | weighted share agreeing that Black Americans would be as well off as whites if they tried harder | Republican identifiers, leaners included | 2024 | 95% CI 44.7% to 50.8% | 2,167 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rule_max | 0.50 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | lowest or highest threshold in the sensitivity check | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rule_min | 0.15 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | lowest or highest threshold in the sensitivity check | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| rule_sd | 0.25 | standard deviations of the attitude (Republican minus Democratic identifiers) | sort-date rule carried over from an earlier analysis of the same surveys and kept | threshold applied to every party-gap series | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (constant) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| spacing_max | 4 | years between consecutive ANES surveys | largest gap between consecutive survey years | ANES survey years in the four series | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| spacing_min | 2 | years between consecutive ANES surveys | smallest gap between consecutive survey years | ANES survey years in the four series | 1980-2024 |   |   | none (count) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |
| white_rr_1986 | 0.14 | standard deviations of the racial resentment index among all respondents in 1986 | weighted mean of the standardized racial resentment index | White non-Hispanic Republican and Democratic identifiers, leaners included | 1986 | 95% CI 0.07 to 0.21 | 731 | weight (VCF0009z) | ANES Cumulative Data File |   |

## Definitions

- Racial resentment: A survey scale, developed by Donald Kinder and Lynn Sanders, that measures moral judgments about the work ethic and deservingness of Black Americans. Higher scores mean more resentment.
- Confidence interval: A range around an estimate that would contain the true value in 95% of repeated samples if the sampling model held. The book reports 95% intervals unless it says otherwise.
- Party sorting: The alignment of party with other traits, such as ideology, religion, race and place, so that people who share a party also tend to share those traits.
- Partisan leaner: A respondent who first says they are independent but, when asked, says they lean toward one party. Most figures group leaners with the party they lean toward, and each chapter says which grouping it uses.
- Effective sample size: The number of equally weighted respondents that would give the same precision as the weighted sample. It is smaller than the raw count when the weights vary a lot, and it sets how wide the confidence interval is.
- Survey weights: Numbers that scale each respondent so the sample matches the population on known traits such as age, race, education and region. A weighted average counts a respondent with a large weight for more than one with a small weight.
- Survey mode: How respondents were interviewed: in person, by phone, on paper or online. Mode can change answers, so a change in mode can look like a change in opinion.

## Methods

Sample: respondents of the ANES Cumulative Data File in the study years 1980 to 2024 who identify with or lean toward a party (pid_7pt 1 to 3 Democratic, 5 to 7 Republican) and answered the item. Respondents with a positive weight in those study years, before any item is required: 49,597 in the all view, 26,570 in the face-to-face view and 35,623 in the White view.

Items: abortion (4-category legality, 17 study years), racial resentment (mean of four standardized Kinder-Sanders items, at least two answered, 13 years; not asked in 1996, two items in 1998), importance of religion (yes or no, 17 years) and the retrospective national economy (worse, same, better, 18 years). Each attitude is scored before estimation so that a higher value means more restrictive on abortion, more resentment on the race items, religion more important and the economy better; the direction comes from the stored value labels, not from a correlation with party. The 2024 importance-of-religion item was revised to a five-point scale; the cumulative file codes extremely, very and moderately important as yes, which matches the 2024 Time Series on the same collapse.

Estimand: the party gap, the weighted mean of the within-year z-score among Republican identifiers minus the weighted mean among Democratic identifiers, where the z-score uses the weighted mean and standard deviation of all respondents with the item in that year and sample.

Weights and samples: the ANES analysis weight (VCF0009z). The face-to-face view uses weight_ftf from 2008 (interviews before 2008 are in person by design, apart from a few abbreviated telephone post-election interviews in 1984). It leaves out 2000, a study that mixed face-to-face and telephone interviews and has no interview-form variable in the file, 2002, which was conducted entirely by telephone, and 2020, which has no mode weights. The mode check uses weight_ftf and weight_web for 2012, 2016 and 2024, standardizing each mode within itself. The White view keeps White non-Hispanic respondents and standardizes within them.

Intervals: 95% normal intervals from the Kish effective sample size, combining the standard errors of the two party means in quadrature. They treat the weighted sample as if it were drawn without clustering and treat the standard deviation used for standardizing as a fixed number, so they ignore the ANES strata and clusters and may be narrower or wider than design-based intervals. Suppression: a study year enters a series with 150 respondents in the two parties and an effective sample of 100 in the smaller party; a party-share cell needs 100 respondents and an effective sample of 100.

Sort dates: the rule is a party gap of 0.25 SD, carried over from an earlier analysis of the same surveys and kept; the sensitivity rules are 0.15, 0.35 and 0.50 SD. The point-estimate date is the first study year whose estimate exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later study year. The sort date is the first study year whose lower 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it in every later study year. The upper-bound year, the earliest date the interval allows, is the first study year whose upper 95% bound exceeds the rule and stays above it. A date in the last study year cannot be tested for staying above the rule.

GSS and CES: the GSS extract uses weight_use, party 0 to 2 against 4 to 6, abortion for any reason (no), the item on whether Black Americans should work their way up without special favors (reversed) and church attendance, 1977 to 2024; GSS interviews from 2021 include web respondents, and the 2024 face-to-face and web gaps are reported for each item. The CES uses weight_cumulative, even years only, party 1 to 3 against 5 to 7, always-allow abortion (2014 to 2020) and importance of religion (2008 to 2024).

## What these data cannot show

- The gaps are associations between party and an answer in one survey year.
- They do not show whether an attitude drew people to a party, whether party led people to change their answers, or whether new voters and departing voters changed the makeup of each party.
- Panel studies address direction.
- Margolis [7] found that for many Americans partisanship shapes religious identity, and Engelhardt [8] found White respondents aligning their racial attitudes with their party.
- The Chapter 2.1, Cohort change in partisan sorting (https://vishalsingh.org/politics/how-the-sort-happened) chapter describes the change in party and ideology by birth cohort and cannot show whether any individual switched.
- A sort date is the year a survey-based gap passes a threshold.
- It is not the year party elites took positions, and the ANES cannot show it.
- The dates also depend on choices the data cannot settle: the rule, the item, the sample and the survey.
- Each 95% interval is computed on its own, and the lower-bound test needs the interval of every later survey to stay above the mark, so one low draw can push a date later.
- The standardization is within year, so a gap in standard deviations can move when the spread of answers changes and the parties do not.

## References

1. Cohen, Jacob (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
2. Adams, Greg D. (1997). Abortion: Evidence of an Issue Evolution. American Journal of Political Science 41(3): 718-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111673
3. Carmines, Edward G.; Stimson, James A. (1989). Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691218250
4. Layman, Geoffrey C. (2001). The Great Divide: Religious and Cultural Conflict in American Party Politics. Columbia University Press.
5. Kinder, Donald R.; Sanders, Lynn M. (1996). Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals. University of Chicago Press.
6. Tesler, Michael (2016). Post-Racial or Most-Racial? Race and Politics in the Obama Era. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226353159.001.0001
7. Margolis, Michele F. (2018). From Politics to the Pews: How Partisanship and the Political Environment Shape Religious Identity. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226555812.001.0001
8. Engelhardt, Andrew M. (2021). Racial Attitudes Through a Partisan Lens. British Journal of Political Science 51(3): 1062-1079. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123419000437

## Provenance

- Pipeline version: 1.0.0
- Build script: book3/chapters/sort-dates-by-attitude/build.py (sha256 e54e6043909c4378699b94d7dff4a0fb6392e20e49579d815930856e26393785)
- Built on: 2026-09-30
- Site commit: 16414b2c7257546a7042d0b1734657f208999f60

Inputs:

| File | Size (bytes) | SHA-256, first 1 MB | SHA-256, last 1 MB |
| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
| data/anes/anes2024_ts/anes_timeseries_2024_spss_20260519.sav | 12,757,094 | 3107c838755f88353d0e3e39b2c3d5f76a2888cf56a179e3acac84ab431335d2 | bb318a018a39b4cf87ccc91b50a5b7c5b41746d28c0226f4a6c176e8c74966d6 |
| data/anes/anes_cdf_clean.parquet | 15,640,720 | b3f0c2d8ae5673b2c40cf6df71318ea3f712cd845c4f1aad0460f28d1b022643 | 04f06dae56b65649291caf6cf77aab9767d9c92d0c2669c6d3655d9063970583 |
| data/cces/cces_clean.parquet | 53,454,868 | 9430e88b3196c9ca2250bdda1908d3920e80e276ca0c529c514e2fc2bdd00806 | f61097c727c38fd8d7c8e53fe86935fb626f351a64d99ccb1ae0b56715b2c405 |
| data/gss/gss_all_raw2024.parquet | 35,044,704 | 6f6560d1929e8a100f576317a296ee88f777ca061ab7dbc1471cbdc7b3563538 | 5c3294f206beb53d9a8387fccb1983bf3088818df090bd8ed3f378adadafcf9b |
| data/gss/gss_sub2024.parquet | 4,925,270 | 09c4894730735ec7ae5a057c99d97705866b0b4d485a8b14030435944f909fba | fbbacc5d2586b9f6a774f02031f3686c14fa23a0effee92366bb90a6de8e0ad3 |

Outputs:

| File | SHA-256 |
| --- | --- |
| facts.json | 95fab0f67e86340a3b05c0e486d2245cab3a5cd329822a06863b998c683a9a7d |
| figures/dates_table.json | 0191668f3df02760d18a5e07105b951d6855abf9565a6910b027199d03446de4 |
| figures/economy_gap.json | 468a3cbb7ae8e5601a8fe5bd00c17c7a682af66a2951447bd6f22df047a4bca4 |
| figures/gap_timelines.json | c2bb49c1ae1e2539c06cb8bad25bb0dcb26da8dce5545c8481a6758ec1137e0a |
| figures/mode_check.json | eea281f05dbf81524cd34caa79940884ab5ccebdb408084d88cf749da93190ce |
| figures/other_surveys.json | cc4ed1f519f08817094e0c9a40c908e306d0f95715772f631b3625702947de42 |
| figures/party_levels.json | b6541a8fcf2275e98ddcb1798a52421fee8d0c0ab5a507a01da911ed7c25b336 |
| figures/sort_dates.json | 03597b528ed761acbdff7615caf29ce807c68c4e59b8e2946d90612e410ac0ae |
| meta.json | 288aaa0977b3c4e5aca5c446fa2c4b433f72ce9b193f30952fa547e37dd2f86a |
| refs.json | e760f5423903b9750dae882fe2cce2c7178918f7f4b044b6dcc7fed94dc8f58f |

## Machine formats

- Report (HTML): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude/report
- Report (Markdown): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/sort-dates-by-attitude/report.md
- Every estimate (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/facts.json
- Table 1, figure "gap_timelines" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/gap_timelines.json
- Table 2, figure "sort_dates" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/sort_dates.json
- Table 3, figure "mode_check" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/mode_check.json
- Table 4, figure "other_surveys" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/other_surveys.json
- Table 5, figure "dates_table" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/dates_table.json
- Table 6, figure "party_levels" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/party_levels.json
- Table 7, figure "economy_gap" (JSON): https://vishalsingh.org/politics/report/sort-dates-by-attitude/figures/economy_gap.json
- Index of every report: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms.txt; all reports in one file: https://vishalsingh.org/politics/llms-full.txt