{
  "alt": "Table of six partial correlations of the swing, three for the capital-gains share and three for the EITC share, under vote weights and with each ZIP code counted equally. The capital-gains correlation with the college share held fixed is negative with vote weights and positive with equal weights, the EITC correlation with the full set held fixed is positive with vote weights and negative with equal weights, and the other four keep their sign.",
  "caption": "The capital-gains partial correlation with the college share held fixed is {fact:p_cap_col} with vote weights and {fact:u_cap_col} with equal weights, and the EITC partial correlation with the full set held fixed is {fact:p_eitc_full} and {fact:u_eitc_full}. A partial correlation is the correlation left after the controls are removed from both variables. The capital-gains partial correlation with the full set held fixed is negative under both weightings.",
  "data": [
    {
      "controls": "No controls",
      "equal": 0.345194,
      "equal_high": 0.374242,
      "equal_low": 0.317745,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "Capital-gains share",
      "vote": 0.329646,
      "vote_high": 0.375843,
      "vote_low": 0.287696
    },
    {
      "controls": "College share held fixed",
      "equal": 0.0366811,
      "equal_high": 0.0631212,
      "equal_low": 0.010014,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "Capital-gains share",
      "vote": -0.0932259,
      "vote_high": -0.0375444,
      "vote_low": -0.144662
    },
    {
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares held fixed",
      "equal": -0.0507009,
      "equal_high": -0.0206021,
      "equal_low": -0.0784122,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "Capital-gains share",
      "vote": -0.257819,
      "vote_high": -0.214313,
      "vote_low": -0.295519
    },
    {
      "controls": "No controls",
      "equal": -0.381319,
      "equal_high": -0.352928,
      "equal_low": -0.410147,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "EITC share",
      "vote": -0.474651,
      "vote_high": -0.43128,
      "vote_low": -0.519696
    },
    {
      "controls": "College share held fixed",
      "equal": -0.178707,
      "equal_high": -0.142807,
      "equal_low": -0.215257,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "EITC share",
      "vote": -0.221531,
      "vote_high": -0.158177,
      "vote_low": -0.28854
    },
    {
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares held fixed",
      "equal": -0.04159,
      "equal_high": -0.0165581,
      "equal_low": -0.0671876,
      "n": 27144,
      "share": "EITC share",
      "vote": 0.0212315,
      "vote_high": 0.0848718,
      "vote_low": -0.0508547
    }
  ],
  "id": "weights_check",
  "notes": [
    "Each 95% interval is a percentile interval from a seeded bootstrap of counties and is in the data table. Every row uses the same ZIP codes."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct votes allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), 2016 and 2020; IRS Statistics of Income ZIP-code data, tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates; weighted by 2020 votes and, in the second column, unweighted",
  "spec": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "share",
        "label": "Share"
      },
      {
        "key": "controls",
        "label": "Controls"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "vote",
        "label": "Partial correlation, vote weights"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "equal",
        "label": "Partial correlation, each ZIP code equal"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Partial correlation of the 2016 to 2020 swing with each share, with vote weights and with every ZIP code counted equally; ZIP-code sample",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "share",
        "label": "Share"
      },
      {
        "key": "controls",
        "label": "Controls"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "vote",
        "label": "Vote weights"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "vote_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "vote_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "equal",
        "label": "Each ZIP code equal"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "equal_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "equal_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "ZIP codes"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Two of the partial correlations change sign when every ZIP code counts equally",
  "type": "table",
  "width": "body"
}