{
  "alt": "Table of four rows, the lowest and highest deciles of the capital-gains share and of the EITC share, with columns for the swing, the 2020 margin, the Black and Hispanic share, the poverty rate and the ZIP-code college variable. The lowest capital-gains decile and the highest EITC decile have Republican swings, high poverty rates and large Black and Hispanic shares; the other two deciles have Democratic swings, low poverty rates and large college shares.",
  "caption": "The two ends with a Republican swing have poverty rates of {fact:prof_cap_d1_pov} and {fact:prof_eitc_d10_pov} and Black and Hispanic shares of {fact:prof_cap_d1_bh} and {fact:prof_eitc_d10_bh}, against {fact:mean_pov} and {fact:mean_bh} across the ZIP codes in the sample. The two ends with a Democratic swing have the largest college shares: {fact:prof_cap_d10_col} and {fact:prof_eitc_d1_col}, against {fact:prof_cap_d1_col} in the lowest capital-gains decile.",
  "data": [
    {
      "bh": 76.4981,
      "bh_high": 80.1679,
      "bh_low": 72.8282,
      "col": 40.5747,
      "col_high": 42.2585,
      "col_low": 38.8908,
      "group": "Lowest capital-gains decile",
      "level": 48.3993,
      "level_high": 54.335,
      "level_low": 42.4636,
      "n": 2715,
      "pov": 23.3746,
      "pov_high": 24.3602,
      "pov_low": 22.3889,
      "swing": -7.21925,
      "swing_high": -5.6322,
      "swing_low": -8.80629
    },
    {
      "bh": 12.7655,
      "bh_high": 13.786,
      "bh_low": 11.745,
      "col": 82.0649,
      "col_high": 82.8243,
      "col_low": 81.3054,
      "group": "Highest capital-gains decile",
      "level": 22.5913,
      "level_high": 27.8633,
      "level_low": 17.3193,
      "n": 2715,
      "pov": 3.79785,
      "pov_high": 3.98236,
      "pov_low": 3.61334,
      "swing": 5.40344,
      "swing_high": 6.3764,
      "swing_low": 4.43048
    },
    {
      "bh": 8.51903,
      "bh_high": 9.11632,
      "bh_low": 7.92174,
      "col": 82.8632,
      "col_high": 83.8998,
      "col_low": 81.8265,
      "group": "Lowest EITC decile",
      "level": 19.9494,
      "level_high": 26.412,
      "level_low": 13.4867,
      "n": 2715,
      "pov": 2.72744,
      "pov_high": 2.84972,
      "pov_low": 2.60516,
      "swing": 6.33691,
      "swing_high": 7.21052,
      "swing_low": 5.46331
    },
    {
      "bh": 66.8387,
      "bh_high": 70.5083,
      "bh_low": 63.1691,
      "col": 43.9174,
      "col_high": 44.9748,
      "col_low": 42.8601,
      "group": "Highest EITC decile",
      "level": 33.2529,
      "level_high": 39.1572,
      "level_low": 27.3487,
      "n": 2715,
      "pov": 22.9302,
      "pov_high": 23.71,
      "pov_low": 22.1503,
      "swing": -5.206,
      "swing_high": -3.48846,
      "swing_low": -6.92353
    }
  ],
  "id": "decile_profiles",
  "notes": [
    "The Black and Hispanic shares are added, and a Black Hispanic resident counts in both, so the sum is an upper bound on the share of residents in either group. Means are weighted by 2020 votes; the data table gives 95% intervals clustered on county."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct votes allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), 2016 and 2020; IRS Statistics of Income ZIP-code data, tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates; weighted by 2020 votes",
  "spec": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "ZIP codes in the"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "swing",
        "label": "Swing, 2016 to 2020 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "level",
        "label": "Margin, 2020 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "bh",
        "label": "Black and Hispanic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "pov",
        "label": "Poverty rate (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "col",
        "label": "ZIP-code college variable (%)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Vote-weighted mean swing, 2020 margin and demographic profile of the lowest and highest deciles of each share; positive swing and margin are toward the Democrats",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "ZIP codes in the"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "swing",
        "label": "Swing (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "swing_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "swing_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "level",
        "label": "Margin, 2020 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "level_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "level_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "bh",
        "label": "Black and Hispanic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "bh_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "bh_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "pov",
        "label": "Poverty rate (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "pov_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "pov_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "col",
        "label": "ZIP-code college variable (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "col_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "col_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "ZIP codes"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The two end deciles that swung toward the Republicans are the poorest of the four",
  "type": "table",
  "width": "wide"
}