{
  "alt": "Line chart with two lines over ten deciles of ZIP codes, plotting the 2020 Democratic minus Republican margin. Both lines are high in the lowest and highest deciles and lowest in the middle of the range, so each forms a U, and several middle deciles have intervals that include zero.",
  "caption": "Both lines bend into a U, with the lowest margins in the middle deciles. The ends of the capital-gains line are {fact:lvl_cap_d1} and {fact:lvl_cap_d10} points and the ends of the EITC line {fact:lvl_eitc_d1} and {fact:lvl_eitc_d10}, against {fact:lvl_cap_min} and {fact:lvl_eitc_min} at the low points. Several middle intervals include zero, so the figure shows a dip and not a Republican margin in every middle decile.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 54.335,
      "conf_low": 42.4636,
      "decile": 1,
      "estimate": 48.3993,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 5.55,
      "share_low": 0
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.2085,
      "conf_low": 8.79354,
      "decile": 2,
      "estimate": 14.001,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 8.93,
      "share_low": 5.55
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0193102,
      "conf_low": -9.62567,
      "decile": 3,
      "estimate": -4.80318,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 11.29,
      "share_low": 8.93
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.56414,
      "conf_low": -15.7035,
      "decile": 4,
      "estimate": -11.6338,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 13.46,
      "share_low": 11.29
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.88099,
      "conf_low": -15.174,
      "decile": 5,
      "estimate": -12.0275,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 15.65,
      "share_low": 13.46
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.38422,
      "conf_low": -10.3381,
      "decile": 6,
      "estimate": -6.86116,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 18.1,
      "share_low": 15.65
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.55705,
      "conf_low": -10.2441,
      "decile": 7,
      "estimate": -6.90058,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 20.93,
      "share_low": 18.11
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.27409,
      "conf_low": -2.71985,
      "decile": 8,
      "estimate": 0.777123,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 24.69,
      "share_low": 20.93
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.04285,
      "conf_low": 2.11997,
      "decile": 9,
      "estimate": 5.58141,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 31.01,
      "share_low": 24.69
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.8633,
      "conf_low": 17.3193,
      "decile": 10,
      "estimate": 22.5913,
      "measure": "Capital-gains share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 77.14,
      "share_low": 31.01
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.412,
      "conf_low": 13.4867,
      "decile": 1,
      "estimate": 19.9494,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 5.12,
      "share_low": 0
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.407,
      "conf_low": 5.67772,
      "decile": 2,
      "estimate": 9.54235,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 7.69,
      "share_low": 5.12
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.16314,
      "conf_low": -1.18209,
      "decile": 3,
      "estimate": 2.49053,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 9.68,
      "share_low": 7.69
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.12745,
      "conf_low": -4.79133,
      "decile": 4,
      "estimate": -0.831938,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 11.51,
      "share_low": 9.68
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.45492,
      "conf_low": -9.61519,
      "decile": 5,
      "estimate": -6.03506,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 13.4,
      "share_low": 11.51
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.98223,
      "conf_low": -10.5314,
      "decile": 6,
      "estimate": -6.25683,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 15.45,
      "share_low": 13.41
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.189254,
      "conf_low": -11.9225,
      "decile": 7,
      "estimate": -6.05589,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 18.03,
      "share_low": 15.45
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.76551,
      "conf_low": -9.1282,
      "decile": 8,
      "estimate": -3.68134,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 21.32,
      "share_low": 18.03
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.85589,
      "conf_low": -2.9947,
      "decile": 9,
      "estimate": 3.43059,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2714,
      "share_high": 26.33,
      "share_low": 21.33
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.1572,
      "conf_low": 27.3487,
      "decile": 10,
      "estimate": 33.2529,
      "measure": "EITC share",
      "n": 2715,
      "share_high": 72.73,
      "share_low": 26.34
    }
  ],
  "id": "decile_levels",
  "notes": [
    "Deciles, weights and intervals are as in the swing figure; the vertical axis is the 2020 margin and not the change."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct votes allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), 2016 and 2020; IRS Statistics of Income ZIP-code data, tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates; weighted by 2020 votes",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "Even split",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Capital-gains share": "cat1",
      "EITC share": "cat2"
    },
    "endLabels": true,
    "n": "n",
    "series": "measure",
    "x": "decile",
    "xDomain": [
      1,
      10
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Decile of ZIP codes by share of returns (1 = lowest share, 10 = highest)",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -20,
      60
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0,
      "signed": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Democratic minus Republican margin, 2020 (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin, Democratic minus Republican, by decile of ZIP codes ranked by share of returns; 95% intervals clustered on county",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Share ranked"
      },
      {
        "key": "decile",
        "label": "Decile"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Mean margin, 2020 (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "ZIP codes"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The 2020 margin was most Democratic at both ends of each share and lowest in the middle of the range",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}