{
  "alt": "Two stacked panels of dots with intervals over five sets of controls at county grain, with a reference line at zero. In the EITC panel the coefficient is negative with no controls and the interval includes zero with poverty, bachelor's share, Black and Hispanic shares held fixed. In the capital-gains panel the interval includes zero with no controls and with the bachelor's share held fixed, is above zero with the average tax rate and the bachelor's share held fixed, and is below zero under the full set.",
  "caption": "Intervals are clustered on state, so they are wider than at ZIP-code grain. The capital-gains coefficient is {fact:c_cap_raw} with no controls and {fact:c_cap_col} with the bachelor's share held fixed, and both intervals include zero; the EITC coefficient is {fact:c_eitc_raw} with no controls and {fact:c_eitc_full} with the full set, an interval that includes zero.",
  "data": [
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": -1.14282,
      "conf_low": -3.6459,
      "controls": "No controls",
      "estimate": -2.39436,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "No controls"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 1.7557,
      "conf_low": -3.56209,
      "controls": "Poverty rate",
      "estimate": -0.903193,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Poverty rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": -1.84164,
      "conf_low": -5.03247,
      "controls": "Average tax rate",
      "estimate": -3.43706,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "no",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Average tax rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": -0.84984,
      "conf_low": -4.20492,
      "controls": "College share",
      "estimate": -2.52738,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "College share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": -1.49366,
      "conf_low": -4.51529,
      "controls": "Average tax rate and college share",
      "estimate": -3.00448,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Tax rate, college share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 2.4289,
      "conf_low": -2.3992,
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares",
      "estimate": 0.0148487,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Poverty, college, race"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 2.3666,
      "conf_low": -0.0105173,
      "controls": "No controls",
      "estimate": 1.17804,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "No controls"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 0.378747,
      "conf_low": -2.00912,
      "controls": "Poverty rate",
      "estimate": -0.815186,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Poverty rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 5.8076,
      "conf_low": 1.53895,
      "controls": "Average tax rate",
      "estimate": 3.67327,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "no",
      "interval": "Above zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Average tax rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 1.98734,
      "conf_low": -1.71525,
      "controls": "College share",
      "estimate": 0.136043,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "College share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": 4.93699,
      "conf_low": 0.398843,
      "controls": "Average tax rate and college share",
      "estimate": 2.66791,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Above zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Tax rate, college share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 48,
      "conf_high": -1.46073,
      "conf_low": -4.39647,
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares",
      "estimate": -2.9286,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "n": 3080,
      "rung": "Poverty, college, race"
    }
  ],
  "id": "control_ladder_county",
  "notes": [
    "Swing is taken from certified county returns and the shares are averaged from ZIP codes within each county. Each row is a separate regression with the controls named on the row. The full set is poverty, bachelor's share, Black and Hispanic shares and does not include the average tax rate. County shares are the means of the ZIP-code shares in the county, weighted by 2020 votes; the college control is the county bachelor's share, which is not the same variable as the ZIP-code college share (definition unresolved). The second view adds the row that holds only the average tax rate fixed."
  ],
  "source": "Certified county returns, 2016 and 2020; IRS Statistics of Income ZIP-code shares, tax year 2022, averaged within counties; county demographics centred on 2020; weighted by 2020 two-party votes",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "exposure",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No association",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -6,
      6
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Points of swing per standard deviation of the share (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "y": "rung"
  },
  "subtitle": "Weighted regression coefficient of the 2016 to 2020 county swing on the county share of returns, one set of controls per row; 95% intervals clustered on state",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "exposure",
        "label": "Share"
      },
      {
        "key": "controls",
        "label": "Controls"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Coefficient"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "key": "interval",
        "label": "Interval"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "clusters",
        "label": "State clusters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "At county grain the intervals are wide and the capital-gains coefficient with college held fixed includes zero",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "in_chart": "yes"
      },
      "id": "main",
      "label": "Main rows"
    },
    {
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All rows"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}