{
  "alt": "Two stacked panels of dots with intervals over five sets of controls, with a reference line at zero. In the EITC panel the coefficient is negative with no controls and is close to zero and includes zero with poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares held fixed. In the capital-gains panel the coefficient is positive with no controls, close to zero with the poverty rate held fixed, negative with the college share held fixed, positive with the average tax rate and college share held fixed and negative under the full set. A second view clusters the intervals on state, and then the capital-gains intervals with the college share held fixed, with or without the tax rate, include zero.",
  "caption": "The EITC coefficient runs from {fact:z_eitc_raw} with no controls to {fact:z_eitc_full} with poverty, college and race held fixed, and the capital-gains coefficient changes sign with the choice of controls. A line that crosses the dashed zero rule is an interval that includes zero. Each row is a separate model on the same {fact:n_zcta} ZIP codes.",
  "data": [
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -2.96187,
      "conf_high_state": -2.65433,
      "conf_low": -4.0052,
      "conf_low_state": -4.31274,
      "controls": "No controls",
      "estimate": -3.48353,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.43128,
      "partial_low": -0.519696,
      "partial_r": -0.474651,
      "rung": "No controls"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -0.646932,
      "conf_high_state": -0.0278006,
      "conf_low": -2.73126,
      "conf_low_state": -3.35039,
      "controls": "Poverty rate",
      "estimate": -1.68909,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.0676529,
      "partial_low": -0.220911,
      "partial_r": -0.140019,
      "rung": "Poverty rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -3.23291,
      "conf_high_state": -2.73806,
      "conf_low": -5.00203,
      "conf_low_state": -5.49689,
      "controls": "Average tax rate",
      "estimate": -4.11747,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "no",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.370808,
      "partial_low": -0.488111,
      "partial_r": -0.428252,
      "rung": "Average tax rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -1.30387,
      "conf_high_state": -0.782539,
      "conf_low": -2.86172,
      "conf_low_state": -3.38304,
      "controls": "College share",
      "estimate": -2.08279,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.158177,
      "partial_low": -0.28854,
      "partial_r": -0.221531,
      "rung": "College share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -1.93497,
      "conf_high_state": -1.41153,
      "conf_low": -3.5809,
      "conf_low_state": -4.10435,
      "controls": "Average tax rate and college share",
      "estimate": -2.75794,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.228722,
      "partial_low": -0.356022,
      "partial_r": -0.289809,
      "rung": "Tax rate, college share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": 1.38943,
      "conf_high_state": 1.86682,
      "conf_low": -0.757963,
      "conf_low_state": -1.23536,
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares",
      "estimate": 0.315734,
      "exposure": "EITC share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "interval_state": "Includes zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": 0.0848718,
      "partial_low": -0.0508547,
      "partial_r": 0.0212315,
      "rung": "Poverty, college, race"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": 2.86288,
      "conf_high_state": 2.99801,
      "conf_low": 1.97578,
      "conf_low_state": 1.84064,
      "controls": "No controls",
      "estimate": 2.41933,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Above zero",
      "interval_state": "Above zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": 0.375843,
      "partial_low": 0.287696,
      "partial_r": 0.329646,
      "rung": "No controls"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": 0.706447,
      "conf_high_state": 0.852933,
      "conf_low": -0.0865223,
      "conf_low_state": -0.233008,
      "controls": "Poverty rate",
      "estimate": 0.309962,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Includes zero",
      "interval_state": "Includes zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": 0.0873642,
      "partial_low": -0.00604634,
      "partial_r": 0.0375221,
      "rung": "Poverty rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": 5.50782,
      "conf_high_state": 5.50928,
      "conf_low": 2.58622,
      "conf_low_state": 2.58475,
      "controls": "Average tax rate",
      "estimate": 4.04702,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "no",
      "interval": "Above zero",
      "interval_state": "Above zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": 0.314148,
      "partial_low": 0.180909,
      "partial_r": 0.248572,
      "rung": "Average tax rate"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -0.43286,
      "conf_high_state": 0.0349711,
      "conf_low": -1.61149,
      "conf_low_state": -2.07932,
      "controls": "College share",
      "estimate": -1.02218,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Includes zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.0375444,
      "partial_low": -0.144662,
      "partial_r": -0.0932259,
      "rung": "College share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": 2.61949,
      "conf_high_state": 3.01557,
      "conf_low": 0.13474,
      "conf_low_state": -0.261338,
      "controls": "Average tax rate and college share",
      "estimate": 1.37712,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Above zero",
      "interval_state": "Includes zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": 0.155297,
      "partial_low": 0.016771,
      "partial_r": 0.0871701,
      "rung": "Tax rate, college share"
    },
    {
      "clusters": 3088,
      "clusters_state": 49,
      "conf_high": -2.26381,
      "conf_high_state": -1.99936,
      "conf_low": -3.22478,
      "conf_low_state": -3.48923,
      "controls": "Poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares",
      "estimate": -2.7443,
      "exposure": "Capital-gains share",
      "in_chart": "yes",
      "interval": "Below zero",
      "interval_state": "Below zero",
      "n": 27144,
      "partial_high": -0.214313,
      "partial_low": -0.295519,
      "partial_r": -0.257819,
      "rung": "Poverty, college, race"
    }
  ],
  "id": "control_ladder",
  "notes": [
    "Each row is a separate regression with the controls named on the row, and each uses the same ZIP codes. Race means the Black share and the Hispanic share of residents. The full set is poverty, college, Black and Hispanic shares and does not include the average tax rate, which is the mean effective federal income tax rate in the ZIP code. The ZIP-code college share is the file's college variable, whose definition is unresolved: the file describes it as the share with a college degree or higher, but its level is far above a bachelor's share. Every row that holds it fixed depends on what it counts. The row that holds only the average tax rate fixed is in the data table and not in the chart.",
    "Partial correlations for each row are in the data table."
  ],
  "source": "Precinct votes allocated to ZIP code tabulation areas (Fekrazad 2025), 2016 and 2020; IRS Statistics of Income ZIP-code data, tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates; weighted by 2020 votes",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "exposure",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No association",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -6,
      6
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Points of swing per standard deviation of the share (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "y": "rung"
  },
  "subtitle": "Weighted regression coefficient of the 2016 to 2020 swing on the share of returns, one set of controls per row; 95% intervals clustered on county in the first view and on state in the second",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "exposure",
        "label": "Share"
      },
      {
        "key": "controls",
        "label": "Controls"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Coefficient"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower bound, county clusters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper bound, county clusters"
      },
      {
        "key": "interval",
        "label": "Interval, county clusters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low_state",
        "label": "Lower bound, state clusters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high_state",
        "label": "Upper bound, state clusters"
      },
      {
        "key": "interval_state",
        "label": "Interval, state clusters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "partial_r",
        "label": "Partial correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "partial_low",
        "label": "Lower bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 3,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "partial_high",
        "label": "Upper bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "ZIP codes"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "clusters",
        "label": "County clusters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "clusters_state",
        "label": "State clusters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Controls take the EITC coefficient to about zero and change the sign of the capital-gains coefficient",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "in_chart": "yes"
      },
      "id": "county",
      "label": "Clusters on county"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The same coefficients with 95% intervals clustered on state, {fact:n_states_zip} clusters (the states and the District of Columbia), instead of county. The two capital-gains rows that hold the college share fixed are {fact:zs_cap_col} and {fact:zs_cap_taxcol}, and both intervals include zero. The EITC coefficient under the full set is {fact:zs_eitc_full}. Every other interval is on the same side of zero as with clusters on county.",
      "filter": {
        "in_chart": "yes"
      },
      "id": "state",
      "label": "Clusters on state",
      "spec": {
        "hi": "conf_high_state",
        "lo": "conf_low_state"
      },
      "title": "With intervals clustered on state, the capital-gains coefficients with the college share held fixed include zero"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}