{
  "agg_m16": {
    "display": "+2.3",
    "estimand": "two-party margin of the aggregate votes of the ZIP codes in the analysis sample (each year weighted by that year's votes)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 2.27062,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "agg_m20": {
    "display": "+4.6",
    "estimand": "two-party margin of the aggregate votes of the ZIP codes in the analysis sample (each year weighted by that year's votes)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 4.59644,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "agg_swing": {
    "display": "2.3",
    "estimand": "change in the aggregate two-party margin of the ZIP codes in the analysis sample, toward the Democrats",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 2.32582,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "c_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      -1.7,
      2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.1",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the college share (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 0.136043,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_cap_full": {
    "ci": [
      -4.4,
      -1.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.9",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -2.9286,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_cap_raw": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      2.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.2",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, with no controls (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 1.17804,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_cap_taxcol": {
    "ci": [
      0.4,
      4.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.7",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the average tax rate and the college share (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 2.66791,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_eitc_col": {
    "ci": [
      -4.2,
      -0.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.5",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the college share (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -2.52738,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_eitc_full": {
    "ci": [
      -2.4,
      2.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.0",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 0.0148487,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "c_eitc_raw": {
    "ci": [
      -3.6,
      -1.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.4",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, with no controls (95% interval clustered on state)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -2.39436,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "cap_tax_left": {
    "display": "19%",
    "estimand": "one minus the squared vote-weighted correlation of the capital-gains share with the average tax rate",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of the variance of the capital-gains share",
    "value": 19.0539,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "ces_home_chg_deg": {
    "ci": [
      -4.7,
      6.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.9",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for homeowners and renters, first group minus second, shown as a size below the second group (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much less the first group moved toward the Democrats than the second",
    "value": 0.888905,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_home_chg_nodeg": {
    "ci": [
      -5.2,
      6.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for homeowners and renters, first group minus second, shown as a size above the second group (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more the first group moved toward the Democrats than the second",
    "value": 0.711017,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_home_gap_deg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      33,
      41.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "37.1",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between homeowners and renters, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 37.0795,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_home_gap_deg_2020": {
    "ci": [
      34.1,
      41.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "38.0",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between homeowners and renters, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 37.9684,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_home_gap_nodeg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      43.3,
      51.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "47.4",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between homeowners and renters, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 47.4399,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_home_gap_nodeg_2020": {
    "ci": [
      42.5,
      50.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "46.7",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between homeowners and renters, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 46.7289,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_chg_deg": {
    "ci": [
      -1,
      9.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "4.4",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for investors and non-investors, first group minus second, sign reversed to a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much less the first group moved toward the Democrats",
    "value": 4.38572,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_chg_nodeg": {
    "ci": [
      3.7,
      14.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "9.1",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for investors and non-investors, first group minus second, sign reversed to a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much less the first group moved toward the Democrats",
    "value": 9.051,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_gap_deg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      2.2,
      9.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.9",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between investors and non-investors, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 5.93129,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_gap_deg_2020": {
    "ci": [
      6.5,
      14.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "10.3",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between investors and non-investors, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 10.317,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_gap_nodeg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      14.2,
      21.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "18.1",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between investors and non-investors, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 18.0577,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_gap_nodeg_2020": {
    "ci": [
      23.4,
      30.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "27.1",
    "estimand": "difference in the Democratic minus Republican margin between investors and non-investors, shown as a size (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how much more Republican the first group is",
    "value": 27.1087,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_move_deg": {
    "ci": [
      1.4,
      7.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "4.5",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for investors, shown as a size in the direction of the move (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree; investors",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how far the group moved toward the Democrats",
    "value": 4.48646,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_move_nodeg": {
    "ci": [
      1.5,
      9.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.5",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for investors, shown as a size in the direction of the move (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree; investors",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how far the group moved toward the Republicans",
    "value": 5.54168,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_share_deg": {
    "ci": [
      67,
      68.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "67.9%",
    "estimand": "weighted share who report investments",
    "n": 18832,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percent of voters",
    "value": 67.8712,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_share_deg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      62.8,
      64.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "63.7%",
    "estimand": "weighted share who report investments",
    "n": 16514,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percent of voters",
    "value": 63.6976,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_share_nodeg": {
    "ci": [
      34.2,
      36
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "35.1%",
    "estimand": "weighted share who report investments",
    "n": 24953,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percent of voters",
    "value": 35.0705,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_inv_share_nodeg_2016": {
    "ci": [
      32.9,
      34.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "33.8%",
    "estimand": "weighted share who report investments",
    "n": 24289,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "percent of voters",
    "value": 33.8099,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_n_home_2016": {
    "display": "39,458",
    "estimand": "count of two-party voters with a degree, a weight and an answer to the homeowner item (owning or renting for the homeowner item)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 39458,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "ces_n_home_2020": {
    "display": "42,142",
    "estimand": "count of two-party voters with a degree, a weight and an answer to the homeowner item (owning or renting for the homeowner item)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 42142,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "ces_n_inv_2016": {
    "display": "40,803",
    "estimand": "count of two-party voters with a degree, a weight and an answer to the investor item (owning or renting for the homeowner item)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 40803,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "ces_n_inv_2020": {
    "display": "43,785",
    "estimand": "count of two-party voters with a degree, a weight and an answer to the investor item (owning or renting for the homeowner item)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "respondents",
    "value": 43785,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "ces_non_move_deg": {
    "ci": [
      4.5,
      13.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "8.9",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for non-investors, shown as a size in the direction of the move (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; college degree; non-investors",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how far the group moved toward the Democrats",
    "value": 8.87218,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "ces_non_move_nodeg": {
    "ci": [
      0,
      7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "3.5",
    "estimand": "change in the margin from 2016 to 2020 for non-investors, shown as a size in the direction of the move (Kish effective-sample interval)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "CES respondents who reported voting for the Democratic or the Republican presidential candidate; no college degree; non-investors",
    "source": "ces",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin, how far the group moved toward the Democrats",
    "value": 3.50932,
    "weights": "post-election weight (weight_post)"
  },
  "col_def_ba": {
    "display": "23.6%",
    "estimand": "mean across counties of the bachelor's share",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the county sample",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of adults",
    "value": 23.6036,
    "weights": "none (full counts and interpolated estimates)"
  },
  "col_def_r": {
    "display": "+0.86",
    "estimand": "correlation across counties of the ZIP-derived college variable with the bachelor's share",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "counties in the county sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.860691,
    "weights": "none (each county counted once)"
  },
  "col_def_zip": {
    "display": "52.7%",
    "estimand": "mean across counties of the vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code college variable",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates, ZIP codes averaged to counties",
    "population": "counties in the county sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent (share counted by the ZIP-code college variable, definition unresolved)",
    "value": 52.6686,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "dem_swing_cap_d10": {
    "ci": [
      4.4,
      6.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the decile, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 10 of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Democrats",
    "value": 5.40344,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "dem_swing_eitc_d1": {
    "ci": [
      5.5,
      7.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "6.3",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the decile, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 1 of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Democrats",
    "value": 6.33691,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "holmes_blk": {
    "display": "82.4%",
    "estimand": "Black share of residents",
    "note": "",
    "period": "county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "residents of Holmes County, Mississippi",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 82.3927,
    "weights": "none (full counts and interpolated estimates)"
  },
  "holmes_eitc": {
    "display": "45.2%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code EITC share in the county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "returns in Holmes County, Mississippi",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percent of returns",
    "value": 45.2299,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "holmes_swing": {
    "display": "1.7",
    "estimand": "county two-party margin in 2020 minus 2016, sign reversed to a size toward the Republicans",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "two-party voters in Holmes County, Mississippi",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Republicans",
    "value": 1.67677,
    "weights": "none (full count of votes)"
  },
  "lvl_cap_d1": {
    "ci": [
      42.5,
      54.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+48.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin of the decile (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 1 of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 48.3993,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "lvl_cap_d10": {
    "ci": [
      17.3,
      27.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+22.6",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin of the decile (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 10 of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 22.5913,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "lvl_cap_min": {
    "ci": [
      -15.2,
      -8.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−12.0",
    "estimand": "lowest vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin among the ten deciles (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2714,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the decile of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain with the lowest mean margin",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": -12.0275,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "lvl_eitc_d1": {
    "ci": [
      13.5,
      26.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+19.9",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin of the decile (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 1 of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 19.9494,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "lvl_eitc_d10": {
    "ci": [
      27.3,
      39.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+33.3",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin of the decile (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 10 of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 33.2529,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "lvl_eitc_min": {
    "ci": [
      -10.5,
      -2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−6.3",
    "estimand": "lowest vote-weighted mean 2020 two-party margin among the ten deciles (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2714,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the decile of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit with the lowest mean margin",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": -6.25683,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "mean_bh": {
    "display": "26.4%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the Black share plus the Hispanic share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 26.3837,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "mean_cap": {
    "display": "20.1%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the capital-gains share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percent of returns",
    "value": 20.1344,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "mean_eitc": {
    "display": "14.2%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the EITC share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percent of returns",
    "value": 14.1639,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "mean_pov": {
    "display": "9.2%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean poverty rate",
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 9.22305,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "n_counties": {
    "display": "3,088",
    "estimand": "count of county codes clustered on",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "counties that contain at least one ZCTA of the analysis sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3088,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_cty": {
    "display": "3,080",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the county sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3080,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_cty_returns": {
    "display": "3,113",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "counties with a two-party return in 2016 and in 2020, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3113,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_states": {
    "display": "48",
    "estimand": "count of state clusters in the county models",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "states and the District of Columbia with a county in the county sample",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "states and the District of Columbia",
    "value": 48,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_states_zip": {
    "display": "49",
    "estimand": "count of state clusters in the state-clustered ZIP-code models",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "states and the District of Columbia with a ZIP code in the analysis sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "states and the District of Columbia",
    "value": 49,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_zcta": {
    "display": "27,144",
    "estimand": "count of ZCTAs in the analysis sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "ZIP code tabulation areas",
    "value": 27144,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_zcta_file": {
    "display": "32,428",
    "estimand": "count of ZCTAs in the vote file",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 and 2020",
    "population": "ZCTAs in the contiguous states with vote estimates for 2016 and 2020",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "ZIP code tabulation areas",
    "value": 32428,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_zero_cap": {
    "display": "1,405",
    "estimand": "count of ZCTAs with exactly 0% of returns reporting a net capital gain",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "ZIP code tabulation areas",
    "value": 1405,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "n_zero_eitc": {
    "display": "1,244",
    "estimand": "count of ZCTAs with exactly 0% of returns claiming the EITC",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "ZIP code tabulation areas",
    "value": 1244,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "natl_swing": {
    "display": "3.0",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code swing (2020 margin minus 2016 margin)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin (Democratic minus Republican)",
    "value": 2.98788,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "p_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      -0.14,
      -0.04
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.09",
    "estimand": "partial correlation of the swing with the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the college share (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.0932259,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "p_eitc_full": {
    "ci": [
      -0.05,
      0.08
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.02",
    "estimand": "partial correlation of the swing with the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0212315,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_cap_d10_col": {
    "ci": [
      81.3,
      82.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "82.1%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code college variable (its definition is unresolved)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the highest decile of the capital-gains share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent (share counted by the ZIP-code college variable, definition unresolved)",
    "value": 82.0649,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_cap_d1_bh": {
    "ci": [
      72.8,
      80.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "76.5%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the Black share plus the Hispanic share",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the capital-gains share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 76.4981,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_cap_d1_col": {
    "ci": [
      38.9,
      42.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "40.6%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code college variable (its definition is unresolved)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the capital-gains share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent (share counted by the ZIP-code college variable, definition unresolved)",
    "value": 40.5747,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_cap_d1_pov": {
    "ci": [
      22.4,
      24.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "23.4%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean poverty rate",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the capital-gains share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 23.3746,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_eitc_d10_bh": {
    "ci": [
      63.2,
      70.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "66.8%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the Black share plus the Hispanic share",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the highest decile of the EITC share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 66.8387,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_eitc_d10_pov": {
    "ci": [
      22.2,
      23.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "22.9%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean poverty rate",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the highest decile of the EITC share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 22.9302,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "prof_eitc_d1_col": {
    "ci": [
      81.8,
      83.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "82.9%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code college variable (its definition is unresolved)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the EITC share",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent (share counted by the ZIP-code college variable, definition unresolved)",
    "value": 82.8632,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      0.79,
      0.82
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.81",
    "estimand": "correlation of the capital-gains share with the college share (the ZIP-code college variable, whose definition is unresolved) (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.806558,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_cap_eitc": {
    "ci": [
      -0.79,
      -0.77
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.78",
    "estimand": "correlation of the capital-gains share with the EITC share (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.783034,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_cap_tax": {
    "ci": [
      0.89,
      0.91
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.90",
    "estimand": "correlation of the capital-gains share with the average tax rate (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.8997,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_col_swing": {
    "ci": [
      0.43,
      0.51
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.47",
    "estimand": "correlation of the college share with the 2016 to 2020 swing (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.469053,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_eitc_col": {
    "ci": [
      -0.74,
      -0.71
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.72",
    "estimand": "correlation of the EITC share with the college share (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.724368,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "r_eitc_tax": {
    "ci": [
      -0.69,
      -0.65
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.67",
    "estimand": "correlation of the EITC share with the average tax rate (vote-weighted; 95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.673517,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "rc_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      0.77,
      0.87
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.83",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county capital-gains share with the county bachelor's share (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.829608,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "rc_cap_swing": {
    "ci": [
      0.04,
      0.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.21",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county capital-gains share with the 2016 to 2020 swing (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.206972,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "rc_eitc_swing": {
    "ci": [
      -0.58,
      -0.23
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.42",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county EITC share with the 2016 to 2020 swing (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.420668,
    "weights": "two-party votes cast in the county in 2020"
  },
  "rcu_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      0.6,
      0.76
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.68",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county capital-gains share with the county bachelor's share, every county counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.679121,
    "weights": "none (every county counted equally)"
  },
  "rcu_cap_swing": {
    "ci": [
      0.33,
      0.49
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.41",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county capital-gains share with the 2016 to 2020 swing, every county counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.414541,
    "weights": "none (every county counted equally)"
  },
  "rcu_eitc_swing": {
    "ci": [
      -0.54,
      -0.33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.44",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county EITC share with the 2016 to 2020 swing, every county counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of states)",
    "n": 3080,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "counties in the contiguous states with ZIP-code shares and county demographics",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.437873,
    "weights": "none (every county counted equally)"
  },
  "rep_swing_cap_d1": {
    "ci": [
      5.6,
      8.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the decile, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 1 of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Republicans",
    "value": 7.21925,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "rep_swing_eitc_d10": {
    "ci": [
      3.5,
      6.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.2",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the decile, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 2715,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in decile 10 of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Republicans",
    "value": 5.206,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "ru_cap_eitc": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      -0.67
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.68",
    "estimand": "correlation of the capital-gains share with the EITC share, every ZIP code counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.684442,
    "weights": "none (every ZIP code counted equally)"
  },
  "ru_col_swing": {
    "ci": [
      0.41,
      0.47
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.44",
    "estimand": "correlation of the college share with the 2016 to 2020 swing, every ZIP code counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.441743,
    "weights": "none (every ZIP code counted equally)"
  },
  "ru_eitc_col": {
    "ci": [
      -0.58,
      -0.54
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.56",
    "estimand": "correlation of the EITC share with the college share, every ZIP code counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties, 2,000 replicates)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.56335,
    "weights": "none (every ZIP code counted equally)"
  },
  "sd_cap": {
    "display": "11.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of the capital-gains share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percentage points of returns",
    "value": 11.5258,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "sd_eitc": {
    "display": "8.3",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted standard deviation of the EITC share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percentage points of returns",
    "value": 8.26309,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "starr_eitc": {
    "display": "45.4%",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean of the ZIP-code EITC share in the county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "IRS tax year 2022",
    "population": "returns in Starr County, Texas",
    "source": "irs-soi",
    "unit": "percent of returns",
    "value": 45.3952,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "starr_hisp": {
    "display": "98.1%",
    "estimand": "Hispanic share of residents",
    "note": "",
    "period": "county demographics centred on 2020",
    "population": "residents of Starr County, Texas",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 98.0517,
    "weights": "none (full counts and interpolated estimates)"
  },
  "starr_swing": {
    "display": "56.3",
    "estimand": "county two-party margin in 2020 minus 2016, sign reversed to a size toward the Republicans",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "two-party voters in Starr County, Texas",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Republicans",
    "value": 56.3222,
    "weights": "none (full count of votes)"
  },
  "u_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      0.01,
      0.06
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.04",
    "estimand": "partial correlation of the swing with the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the college share, every ZIP code counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": 0.0366811,
    "weights": "none (every ZIP code counted equally)"
  },
  "u_eitc_full": {
    "ci": [
      -0.07,
      -0.02
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.04",
    "estimand": "partial correlation of the swing with the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share, every ZIP code counted equally (95% interval from a bootstrap of counties)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, from −1 to +1",
    "value": -0.04159,
    "weights": "none (every ZIP code counted equally)"
  },
  "vote_floor": {
    "display": "100",
    "estimand": "minimum number of 2020 votes for a ZCTA to enter the sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZCTAs kept in the sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "votes",
    "value": 100,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "votes_all": {
    "display": "157.4 million",
    "estimand": "sum of 2020 presidential votes in the vote file",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "votes allocated to all ZCTAs of the vote file",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "votes",
    "value": 157372000,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "votes_sample": {
    "display": "156.4 million",
    "estimand": "sum of 2020 presidential votes in the analysis sample",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "votes allocated to the ZCTAs of the analysis sample",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "votes",
    "value": 156423000,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "votes_zero_cap": {
    "display": "0.3%",
    "estimand": "share of the sample's 2020 votes in ZCTAs with exactly 0% capital-gains returns",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of votes",
    "value": 0.27262,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "votes_zero_eitc": {
    "display": "0.2%",
    "estimand": "share of the sample's 2020 votes in ZCTAs with exactly 0% EITC returns",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "percent of votes",
    "value": 0.198183,
    "weights": "none (count)"
  },
  "z_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      -1.6,
      -0.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.0",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the college share (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -1.02218,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_cap_pov": {
    "ci": [
      -0.1,
      0.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.3",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the poverty rate (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 0.309962,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_cap_raw": {
    "ci": [
      2,
      2.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.4",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, with no controls (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 2.41933,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_cap_taxcol": {
    "ci": [
      0.1,
      2.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.4",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the average tax rate and the college share (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 1.37712,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_col_raw": {
    "ci": [
      3.1,
      3.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.4",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the college share with no controls (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 3.44245,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_eitc_col": {
    "ci": [
      -2.9,
      -1.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.1",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the college share (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -2.08279,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_eitc_full": {
    "ci": [
      -0.8,
      1.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.3",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 0.315734,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_eitc_pov": {
    "ci": [
      -2.7,
      -0.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.7",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -1.68909,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_eitc_raw": {
    "ci": [
      -4,
      -3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−3.5",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, with no controls (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -3.48353,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "z_eitc_taxcol": {
    "ci": [
      -3.6,
      -1.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−2.8",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the average tax rate and the college share (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -2.75794,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "zero_free_swing_cap_d1": {
    "ci": [
      5.8,
      9.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.5",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the lowest decile without the ZCTAs at exactly 0%, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 1310,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the capital-gains share, leaving out those with exactly 0%",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Republicans",
    "value": 7.4898,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "zero_free_swing_eitc_d1": {
    "ci": [
      5.5,
      7.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "6.4",
    "estimand": "vote-weighted mean swing of the lowest decile without the ZCTAs at exactly 0%, shown as a size (95% interval clustered on county)",
    "n": 1471,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "ZIP codes in the lowest decile of the EITC share, leaving out those with exactly 0%",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of two-party margin swing, toward the Democrats",
    "value": 6.41956,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "zs_cap_col": {
    "ci": [
      -2.1,
      0
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−1.0",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the college share (95% interval clustered on state, 49 clusters)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": -1.02218,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "zs_cap_taxcol": {
    "ci": [
      -0.3,
      3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.4",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns reporting a net capital gain, net of the average tax rate and the college share (95% interval clustered on state, 49 clusters)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 1.37712,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  },
  "zs_eitc_full": {
    "ci": [
      -1.2,
      1.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.3",
    "estimand": "weighted least squares coefficient of the share of returns claiming the earned income tax credit, net of the poverty rate, college share, Black share and Hispanic share (95% interval clustered on state, 49 clusters)",
    "n": 27144,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2020 swing; IRS tax year 2022; ACS 5-year estimates",
    "population": "ZIP code tabulation areas in the contiguous states with more than 100 votes in 2020 and complete IRS and ACS measures",
    "source": "rlcr",
    "unit": "points of swing in the two-party margin per standard deviation of the measure (positive is toward the Democrats)",
    "value": 0.315734,
    "weights": "votes cast in the ZIP code in 2020 (pres_tot_2020)"
  }
}