{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row per presidential election from 1976 to 2024 joining the certified presidential vote total to the CPS estimate of reported voters. The CPS dot lies to the right of the ring in every year through 2004, by {fact:over_1988} in 1988, and lies within {fact:over_absmax_0424} of the ring from 2004 to 2024, to the left of it in 2020.",
  "caption": "Relative to the certified total, the CPS count was between {fact:over_min_7600} and {fact:over_max_7600} higher in 1976 to 2000, {fact:over_2004} in 2004 and {fact:over_2020} in 2020. The ring is the certified presidential total, which counts ballots with a presidential vote, and the dot is the CPS estimate with its interval. The CPS count includes persons who voted but left the presidential line blank, which raises it slightly above the presidential total. Rising nonresponse, which the Census convention counts as not voting, is consistent with the narrowing, but the data do not test it.",
  "data": [
    {
      "certified": 81.6013,
      "cps": 86.6905,
      "cps_hi": 87.173,
      "cps_lo": 86.2079,
      "election": "1976",
      "n": 89090
    },
    {
      "certified": 86.4969,
      "cps": 94.7851,
      "cps_hi": 95.282,
      "cps_lo": 94.2882,
      "election": "1980",
      "n": 123591
    },
    {
      "certified": 92.6549,
      "cps": 101.878,
      "cps_hi": 102.437,
      "cps_lo": 101.319,
      "election": "1984",
      "n": 110115
    },
    {
      "certified": 91.5868,
      "cps": 102.223,
      "cps_hi": 102.852,
      "cps_lo": 101.593,
      "election": "1988",
      "n": 102945
    },
    {
      "certified": 104.6,
      "cps": 113.405,
      "cps_hi": 114.028,
      "cps_lo": 112.781,
      "election": "1992",
      "n": 105987
    },
    {
      "certified": 96.3898,
      "cps": 105.017,
      "cps_hi": 105.717,
      "cps_lo": 104.318,
      "election": "1996",
      "n": 89609
    },
    {
      "certified": 105.594,
      "cps": 111.911,
      "cps_hi": 112.658,
      "cps_lo": 111.164,
      "election": "2000",
      "n": 88884
    },
    {
      "certified": 122.349,
      "cps": 125.736,
      "cps_hi": 126.484,
      "cps_lo": 124.988,
      "election": "2004",
      "n": 103696
    },
    {
      "certified": 131.419,
      "cps": 131.144,
      "cps_hi": 131.93,
      "cps_lo": 130.358,
      "election": "2008",
      "n": 99556
    },
    {
      "certified": 129.14,
      "cps": 132.948,
      "cps_hi": 133.763,
      "cps_lo": 132.134,
      "election": "2012",
      "n": 101568
    },
    {
      "certified": 136.787,
      "cps": 137.537,
      "cps_hi": 138.391,
      "cps_lo": 136.682,
      "election": "2016",
      "n": 100946
    },
    {
      "certified": 158.529,
      "cps": 154.628,
      "cps_hi": 155.551,
      "cps_lo": 153.704,
      "election": "2020",
      "n": 87589
    },
    {
      "certified": 155.41,
      "cps": 154.308,
      "cps_hi": 155.333,
      "cps_lo": 153.282,
      "election": "2024",
      "n": 78650
    }
  ],
  "id": "cps_vs_certified",
  "notes": [
    "The ballots counted for president are full counts and have no interval. The CPS interval treats the adult population total as fixed and uses the Kish interval on the share who voted.",
    "The election column names the presidential election year."
  ],
  "source": "Current Population Survey, November Voting and Registration Supplement (IPUMS-CPS), 1976 to 2024, weighted (VOSUPPWT); MIT Election Data and Science Lab state presidential returns, 1976 to 2024, full counts",
  "spec": {
    "deltaLabel": "CPS minus count (millions)",
    "hi2": "cps_hi",
    "label1": "Ballots counted for president",
    "label2": "CPS reported voters",
    "lo2": "cps_lo",
    "n2": "n",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "certified",
    "x2": "cps",
    "xDomain": [
      70,
      170
    ],
    "xLabel": "Millions of persons",
    "y": "election"
  },
  "subtitle": "Millions of persons: ballots counted for president against the CPS weighted number of adults 18 and older who reported voting, presidential years 1976 to 2024; the CPS interval is the 95% interval from the Kish effective sample size",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "election",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "certified",
        "label": "Ballots counted for president (millions)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "cps",
        "label": "CPS reported voters (millions)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "cps_lo",
        "label": "95% CI low (millions)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "cps_hi",
        "label": "95% CI high (millions)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The CPS count of reported voters exceeded the ballots counted for president by {fact:over_min_7600} to {fact:over_max_7600} through 2000 and was within {fact:over_absmax_0424} of them from 2004 to 2024",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}