{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row per contrast for 2024, each joining the difference with one characteristic alone to the difference with all four together. The White minus Black difference falls from {fact:raw_black_2024} to {fact:adj_black_2024}, the White minus Hispanic difference from {fact:raw_hisp_2024} to {fact:adj_hisp_2024}, the highest minus lowest income third from {fact:raw_inc_2024} to {fact:adj_inc_2024}, and the bachelor's degree minus less than high school difference from {fact:raw_ba_lths_2024} to {fact:adj_ba_lths_2024}. The White minus Asian and the oldest minus middle-aged differences do not shrink.",
  "caption": "The ring is the difference when only that characteristic is in the model and the dot is the difference with age, race and ethnicity, education and family income all in the model. The White minus Black difference falls from {fact:raw_black_2024} to {fact:adj_black_2024} points in 2024, the White minus Hispanic difference from {fact:raw_hisp_2024} to {fact:adj_hisp_2024}, and the education and income differences shrink proportionally less. The White minus Asian difference is {fact:raw_asian_2024} alone and {fact:adj_asian_2024} with the other characteristics. The models are descriptive and do not say why the groups differ.",
  "data": [
    {
      "adj_hi": 19.4528,
      "adj_lo": 17.0227,
      "adjusted": 18.2377,
      "contrast": "Ages 65 and older minus ages 25 to 44",
      "dimension": "Age",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 14.4676,
      "raw_hi": 15.7411,
      "raw_lo": 13.1941,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 5.31849,
      "adj_lo": 1.57431,
      "adjusted": 3.4464,
      "contrast": "White minus Black",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 9.70616,
      "raw_hi": 11.8471,
      "raw_lo": 7.56521,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 12.9304,
      "adj_lo": 8.07415,
      "adjusted": 10.5023,
      "contrast": "White minus Hispanic",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 18.8376,
      "raw_hi": 21.207,
      "raw_lo": 16.4682,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 16.114,
      "adj_lo": 13.0135,
      "adjusted": 14.5637,
      "contrast": "White minus Asian",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 13.0802,
      "raw_hi": 14.8098,
      "raw_lo": 11.3505,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 38.1819,
      "adj_lo": 30.802,
      "adjusted": 34.4919,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus less than high school",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 40.5407,
      "raw_hi": 44.5575,
      "raw_lo": 36.524,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 22.4016,
      "adj_lo": 19.1077,
      "adjusted": 20.7546,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus high school graduate",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 24.3354,
      "raw_hi": 25.9621,
      "raw_lo": 22.7086,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 14.8583,
      "adj_lo": 12.3437,
      "adjusted": 13.601,
      "contrast": "Highest minus lowest third of family income",
      "dimension": "Family income",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 65471,
      "raw": 20.2699,
      "raw_hi": 21.9675,
      "raw_lo": 18.5723,
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 17.1345,
      "adj_lo": 13.7807,
      "adjusted": 15.4576,
      "contrast": "Ages 65 and older minus ages 25 to 44",
      "dimension": "Age",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 11.9167,
      "raw_hi": 13.7093,
      "raw_lo": 10.1241,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 2.9119,
      "adj_lo": -1.04614,
      "adjusted": 0.932878,
      "contrast": "White minus Black",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 7.44783,
      "raw_hi": 9.67056,
      "raw_lo": 5.2251,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 9.13378,
      "adj_lo": 6.00532,
      "adjusted": 7.56955,
      "contrast": "White minus Hispanic",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 15.9067,
      "raw_hi": 17.4601,
      "raw_lo": 14.3533,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 16.388,
      "adj_lo": 11.7624,
      "adjusted": 14.0752,
      "contrast": "White minus Asian",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 12.5344,
      "raw_hi": 15.1568,
      "raw_lo": 9.91206,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 33.8497,
      "adj_lo": 27.8393,
      "adjusted": 30.8445,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus less than high school",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 36.2736,
      "raw_hi": 38.9457,
      "raw_lo": 33.6015,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 20.5048,
      "adj_lo": 16.9015,
      "adjusted": 18.7031,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus high school graduate",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 21.9285,
      "raw_hi": 23.7582,
      "raw_lo": 20.0987,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 14.3959,
      "adj_lo": 12.0143,
      "adjusted": 13.2051,
      "contrast": "Highest minus lowest third of family income",
      "dimension": "Family income",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 73633,
      "raw": 20.0929,
      "raw_hi": 21.4658,
      "raw_lo": 18.72,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 20.4955,
      "adj_lo": 17.9612,
      "adjusted": 19.2283,
      "contrast": "Ages 65 and older minus ages 25 to 44",
      "dimension": "Age",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 14.4339,
      "raw_hi": 15.9516,
      "raw_lo": 12.9162,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": -0.0592002,
      "adj_lo": -5.22424,
      "adjusted": -2.64172,
      "contrast": "White minus Black",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 5.03296,
      "raw_hi": 7.59419,
      "raw_lo": 2.47172,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 9.49799,
      "adj_lo": 4.92754,
      "adjusted": 7.21276,
      "contrast": "White minus Hispanic",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 16.7198,
      "raw_hi": 19.8435,
      "raw_lo": 13.5962,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 20.4444,
      "adj_lo": 15.6692,
      "adjusted": 18.0568,
      "contrast": "White minus Asian",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 17.0728,
      "raw_hi": 20.2447,
      "raw_lo": 13.9009,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 37.8883,
      "adj_lo": 32.1759,
      "adjusted": 35.0321,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus less than high school",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 39.8167,
      "raw_hi": 42.2425,
      "raw_lo": 37.3909,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 21.8046,
      "adj_lo": 19.3349,
      "adjusted": 20.5698,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus high school graduate",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 23.2529,
      "raw_hi": 24.5732,
      "raw_lo": 21.9327,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 14.8031,
      "adj_lo": 12.9265,
      "adjusted": 13.8648,
      "contrast": "Highest minus lowest third of family income",
      "dimension": "Family income",
      "election": "Presidential",
      "n": 83819,
      "raw": 21.6183,
      "raw_hi": 22.7105,
      "raw_lo": 20.526,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 28.5816,
      "adj_lo": 25.1962,
      "adjusted": 26.8889,
      "contrast": "Ages 65 and older minus ages 25 to 44",
      "dimension": "Age",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 22.5864,
      "raw_hi": 24.3591,
      "raw_lo": 20.8137,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 6.59784,
      "adj_lo": 1.25761,
      "adjusted": 3.92772,
      "contrast": "White minus Black",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 11.5562,
      "raw_hi": 14.0345,
      "raw_lo": 9.07794,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 11.4577,
      "adj_lo": 6.16288,
      "adjusted": 8.81027,
      "contrast": "White minus Hispanic",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 18.6715,
      "raw_hi": 21.0708,
      "raw_lo": 16.2721,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 21.7324,
      "adj_lo": 16.9886,
      "adjusted": 19.3605,
      "contrast": "White minus Asian",
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 17.8657,
      "raw_hi": 21.0654,
      "raw_lo": 14.666,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 37.0297,
      "adj_lo": 31.147,
      "adjusted": 34.0884,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus less than high school",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 38.4353,
      "raw_hi": 41.5119,
      "raw_lo": 35.3587,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 22.7174,
      "adj_lo": 19.3176,
      "adjusted": 21.0175,
      "contrast": "Bachelor's degree minus high school graduate",
      "dimension": "Education",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 23.7808,
      "raw_hi": 25.6681,
      "raw_lo": 21.8936,
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "adj_hi": 15.2483,
      "adj_lo": 12.6426,
      "adjusted": 13.9454,
      "contrast": "Highest minus lowest third of family income",
      "dimension": "Family income",
      "election": "Midterm",
      "n": 66012,
      "raw": 19.9372,
      "raw_hi": 21.6574,
      "raw_lo": 18.217,
      "year": 2022
    }
  ],
  "id": "adjusted_gaps",
  "notes": [
    "Weighted linear probability models of voting (0 or 1) with the Census convention, one model per election and specification, on citizens 25 and older with family income. Income enters as thirds, with a bracket that straddles a cut-off entered as two rows with fractional weights. Intervals are normal approximations with standard errors clustered by state (51 clusters) and omit the within-state design effect.",
    "The age contrast is ages 65 and older against ages 25 to 44; adults under 25 are not in the sample because attainment is defined from 25.",
    "The size column counts persons; the models use more rows because a person whose income bracket straddles a cut-off enters as two rows."
  ],
  "source": "Current Population Survey, November Voting and Registration Supplement (IPUMS-CPS), 2024, 2020, 2016 and 2022; weighted (VOSUPPWT); weighted linear probability models",
  "spec": {
    "deltaLabel": "Adjusted minus alone",
    "group": "dimension",
    "hi1": "raw_hi",
    "hi2": "adj_hi",
    "label1": "One characteristic alone",
    "label2": "All four together",
    "lo1": "raw_lo",
    "lo2": "adj_lo",
    "n1": "n",
    "n2": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No difference",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "raw",
    "x2": "adjusted",
    "xDomain": [
      -8,
      48
    ],
    "xLabel": "Turnout difference (percentage points)",
    "y": "contrast"
  },
  "subtitle": "Difference in turnout between the higher-turnout and lower-turnout group, percentage points, citizens 25 and older, 2024 (buttons show other elections); one characteristic alone against all four together; 95% intervals from standard errors clustered by state",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Year"
      },
      {
        "key": "contrast",
        "label": "Contrast"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "raw",
        "label": "One characteristic alone (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "raw_lo",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "raw_hi",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "adjusted",
        "label": "All four together (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "adj_lo",
        "label": "95% CI low (adjusted)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "adj_hi",
        "label": "95% CI high (adjusted)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Net of age, education and family income, the White-Black turnout difference was {fact:adj_black_2024} points in 2024 and the Asian-White difference did not shrink",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "year": 2024
      },
      "id": "2024",
      "label": "2024"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "year": 2020
      },
      "id": "2020",
      "label": "2020"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "year": 2016
      },
      "id": "2016",
      "label": "2016"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "year": 2022
      },
      "id": "2022",
      "label": "2022"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}