{
  "alt": "Waterfall chart with a first bar for the group's share of the party's voters in 1976 to 1988, two floating steps for group size and relative lean, and a last bar for the share in 2012 to 2024. For degree holders among Democratic voters both steps are positive and the last bar is far higher than the first. The buttons show five other cases, among them cases with a negative step and cases in which the two steps largely cancel.",
  "caption": "The first bar is the group's share of the party's voters in 1976 to 1988 and the last bar is its share in 2012 to 2024. The two steps between them are the change from the group's share of all voters (group size) and the change from the group's Democratic share relative to the Democratic share of all voters (relative lean); they add exactly to the change. The default view is degree holders among Democratic voters, and the buttons show degree holders among Republican voters and the same split for white voters and for the highest income third.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 20.8671,
      "conf_low": 17.4898,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2173,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 19.1784
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.0711,
      "conf_low": 14.0489,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 15.4824
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.5541,
      "conf_low": 7.09728,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 8.75661
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.8442,
      "conf_low": 41.9906,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 9449,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 43.4174
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.8895,
      "conf_low": 23.459,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2563,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 25.1742
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.7257,
      "conf_low": 13.6317,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 15.0944
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.38024,
      "conf_low": -10.5963,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": -8.88512
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.8421,
      "conf_low": 29.9249,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 7156,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "Degree holders",
      "value": 31.3835
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 74.5805,
      "conf_low": 70.7631,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2179,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": 72.6718
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -10.3864,
      "conf_low": -12.8099,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": -11.636
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.45998,
      "conf_low": -4.62899,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": -3.05579
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 59.3971,
      "conf_low": 56.5629,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 9493,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": 57.98
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 95.694,
      "conf_low": 93.9446,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2570,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": 94.8193
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -14.4562,
      "conf_low": -17.8252,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": -16.1889
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.85693,
      "conf_low": 5.6812,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": 7.29313
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 87.0137,
      "conf_low": 84.8334,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 7190,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "value": 85.9235
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.9179,
      "conf_low": 28.7992,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2011,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 30.8585
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.50218,
      "conf_low": 2.2662,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 3.86548
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.55952,
      "conf_low": 6.00846,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 7.82812
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.9938,
      "conf_low": 41.1105,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 9236,
      "party": "Democratic voters",
      "step": "Share of Democratic voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 42.5521
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 47.1139,
      "conf_low": 43.0296,
      "kind": "start",
      "n": 2376,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 1976 to 1988",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 45.0718
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.66912,
      "conf_low": 2.74546,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Group size",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 4.69563
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.82833,
      "conf_low": -8.21622,
      "kind": "delta",
      "n": 21554,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Relative lean",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": -6.51118
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.8414,
      "conf_low": 41.671,
      "kind": "end",
      "n": 6908,
      "party": "Republican voters",
      "step": "Share of Republican voters, 2012 to 2024",
      "topic": "Highest income third",
      "value": 43.2562
    }
  ],
  "id": "size_lean_split",
  "notes": [
    "The start and end bars carry Kish intervals. The two steps carry percentile intervals from a bootstrap that resamples respondents within each election (400 replicates, seed 12345).",
    "The split is symmetric: the change in group size times the average relative lean, plus the change in relative lean times the average group size. Relative lean is the group's Democratic (or Republican) share divided by the party's share of all voters."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters",
  "spec": {
    "format": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "kind": "kind",
    "step": "step",
    "value": "value",
    "valueLabel": "Share of the party's voters (%) and change (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in a group's share of a party's two-party presidential voters from 1976 to 1988 to 2012 to 2024, split into group size and relative lean, percent and percentage points; ANES; the buttons switch group and party",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "topic",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "key": "party",
        "label": "Party's voters"
      },
      {
        "key": "step",
        "label": "Step"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "value",
        "label": "Value"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Among Democratic voters the degree-holding share rose through group size ({fact:deg_size_d} points) and relative lean ({fact:deg_lean_d} points)",
  "type": "waterfall",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Democratic voters",
        "topic": "Degree holders"
      },
      "id": "deg_d",
      "label": "Degree holders, Democratic voters",
      "title": "Among Democratic voters the degree-holding share rose through group size ({fact:deg_size_d} points) and relative lean ({fact:deg_lean_d} points)"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Republican voters",
        "topic": "Degree holders"
      },
      "id": "deg_r",
      "label": "Degree holders, Republican voters",
      "title": "Among Republican voters the degree-holding share rose through group size ({fact:deg_size_r} points), and relative lean offset most of it ({fact:deg_lean_r} points)"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Democratic voters",
        "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters"
      },
      "id": "wh_d",
      "label": "White voters, Democratic voters",
      "title": "The white share of Democratic voters fell through group size ({fact:wh_size_d} points) and relative lean ({fact:wh_lean_d} points) although white voters' Democratic share rose"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Republican voters",
        "topic": "White non-Hispanic voters"
      },
      "id": "wh_r",
      "label": "White voters, Republican voters",
      "title": "The white share of Republican voters fell through group size ({fact:wh_size_r} points), and relative lean offset part of it ({fact:wh_lean_r} points)"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Democratic voters",
        "topic": "Highest income third"
      },
      "id": "inc_d",
      "label": "Highest income third, Democratic voters",
      "title": "Among Democratic voters the highest income third's share rose through group size ({fact:inc_size_d} points) and relative lean ({fact:inc_lean_d} points)"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "party": "Republican voters",
        "topic": "Highest income third"
      },
      "id": "inc_r",
      "label": "Highest income third, Republican voters",
      "title": "Among Republican voters the highest income third's share moved little, with a group-size term of {fact:inc_size_r} points and a relative-lean term of {fact:inc_lean_r} points"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}