{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each of seventeen groups in six blocks, joining the Democratic share in 1976 to 1988 to the share in 2012 to 2024 with an interval on each end. The dot for four-year degree holders lies farthest to the right of its ring, the dots for the highest income third and the youngest age band also lie well to the right of theirs, and the rows for Black voters and the lowest income third show little movement.",
  "caption": "Among degree holders the share rose by {fact:gv_deg_chg} points, from {fact:gv_deg_0} to {fact:gv_deg_1}, and no other group's rise is as large once sampling error is allowed for. Among the highest income third the share went from {fact:gv_inc_0} to {fact:gv_inc_1} and among the youngest age band from {fact:gv_age_0} to {fact:gv_age_1}. The ring is the earlier period and the dot the later one; the denominator is the group's voters. The Democratic share of all voters rose from {fact:all_d0} to {fact:all_d1} in these surveys, so a group that rose by less than that moved less than the electorate did.",
  "data": [
    {
      "change": 1.54162,
      "dimension": "Education",
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "hi_0": 49.442,
      "hi_1": 50.7772,
      "lo_0": 46.1437,
      "lo_1": 47.8917,
      "n_0": 3673,
      "n_1": 8979,
      "share_0": 47.7928,
      "share_1": 49.3344
    },
    {
      "change": 22.7945,
      "dimension": "Education",
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "hi_0": 42.2262,
      "hi_1": 63.4864,
      "lo_0": 36.2431,
      "lo_1": 60.5719,
      "n_0": 1063,
      "n_1": 7626,
      "share_0": 39.2346,
      "share_1": 62.0292
    },
    {
      "change": 0.209741,
      "dimension": "Income (relative thirds)",
      "group": "Lowest third",
      "hi_0": 61.1849,
      "hi_1": 60.5677,
      "lo_0": 55.3345,
      "lo_1": 56.3712,
      "n_0": 1138,
      "n_1": 4766,
      "share_0": 58.2597,
      "share_1": 58.4694
    },
    {
      "change": 5.63365,
      "dimension": "Income (relative thirds)",
      "group": "Middle third",
      "hi_0": 49.071,
      "hi_1": 53.9688,
      "lo_0": 43.9708,
      "lo_1": 50.3402,
      "n_0": 1529,
      "n_1": 5617,
      "share_0": 46.5209,
      "share_1": 52.1545
    },
    {
      "change": 17.3445,
      "dimension": "Income (relative thirds)",
      "group": "Highest third",
      "hi_0": 38.983,
      "hi_1": 55.7084,
      "lo_0": 34.335,
      "lo_1": 52.2986,
      "n_0": 1720,
      "n_1": 5761,
      "share_0": 36.659,
      "share_1": 54.0035
    },
    {
      "change": 4.99143,
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "group": "White non-Hispanic",
      "hi_0": 40.9211,
      "hi_1": 45.5769,
      "lo_0": 37.8413,
      "lo_1": 43.1684,
      "n_0": 4030,
      "n_1": 12097,
      "share_0": 39.3812,
      "share_1": 44.3726
    },
    {
      "change": 0.88556,
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "group": "Black non-Hispanic",
      "hi_0": 95.228,
      "hi_1": 95.3713,
      "lo_0": 90.3956,
      "lo_1": 92.0234,
      "n_0": 458,
      "n_1": 1860,
      "share_0": 92.8118,
      "share_1": 93.6973
    },
    {
      "change": 10.4263,
      "dimension": "Race and ethnicity",
      "group": "Hispanic",
      "hi_0": 68.5032,
      "hi_1": 75.3896,
      "lo_0": 54.9631,
      "lo_1": 68.9292,
      "n_0": 204,
      "n_1": 1616,
      "share_0": 61.7331,
      "share_1": 72.1594
    },
    {
      "change": 2.35531,
      "dimension": "Religion (later period 2012 to 2020)",
      "group": "Protestant",
      "hi_0": 44.1513,
      "hi_1": 46.5247,
      "lo_0": 40.5796,
      "lo_1": 42.9169,
      "n_0": 3066,
      "n_1": 5557,
      "share_0": 42.3655,
      "share_1": 44.7208
    },
    {
      "change": 2.51442,
      "dimension": "Religion (later period 2012 to 2020)",
      "group": "Catholic",
      "hi_0": 53.5513,
      "hi_1": 55.6831,
      "lo_0": 47.8171,
      "lo_1": 50.7142,
      "n_0": 1214,
      "n_1": 2829,
      "share_0": 50.6842,
      "share_1": 53.1986
    },
    {
      "change": 9.19171,
      "dimension": "Religion (later period 2012 to 2020)",
      "group": "Jewish, another religion or none",
      "hi_0": 61.6092,
      "hi_1": 68.1956,
      "lo_0": 52.5307,
      "lo_1": 64.3277,
      "n_0": 475,
      "n_1": 4460,
      "share_0": 57.0699,
      "share_1": 66.2616
    },
    {
      "change": 16.3084,
      "dimension": "Age",
      "group": "18 to 29",
      "hi_0": 49.7332,
      "hi_1": 65.8496,
      "lo_0": 43.0266,
      "lo_1": 59.5269,
      "n_0": 881,
      "n_1": 1673,
      "share_0": 46.3799,
      "share_1": 62.6883
    },
    {
      "change": 13.6798,
      "dimension": "Age",
      "group": "30 to 44",
      "hi_0": 46.6218,
      "hi_1": 59.887,
      "lo_0": 41.5429,
      "lo_1": 55.6373,
      "n_0": 1526,
      "n_1": 3686,
      "share_0": 44.0823,
      "share_1": 57.7621
    },
    {
      "change": 3.43171,
      "dimension": "Age",
      "group": "45 to 64",
      "hi_0": 49.8936,
      "hi_1": 52.4348,
      "lo_0": 44.6428,
      "lo_1": 48.9651,
      "n_0": 1452,
      "n_1": 5986,
      "share_0": 47.2682,
      "share_1": 50.6999
    },
    {
      "change": 4.45858,
      "dimension": "Age",
      "group": "65 and over",
      "hi_0": 50.0439,
      "hi_1": 53.0942,
      "lo_0": 43.3332,
      "lo_1": 49.2001,
      "n_0": 887,
      "n_1": 4935,
      "share_0": 46.6885,
      "share_1": 51.1471
    },
    {
      "change": 8.56234,
      "dimension": "Gender",
      "group": "Women",
      "hi_0": 50.2981,
      "hi_1": 58.3514,
      "lo_0": 46.4222,
      "lo_1": 55.4936,
      "n_0": 2659,
      "n_1": 8955,
      "share_0": 48.3602,
      "share_1": 56.9225
    },
    {
      "change": 8.15325,
      "dimension": "Gender",
      "group": "Men",
      "hi_0": 45.032,
      "hi_1": 52.5875,
      "lo_0": 40.7227,
      "lo_1": 49.4737,
      "n_0": 2111,
      "n_1": 7745,
      "share_0": 42.8774,
      "share_1": 51.0306
    }
  ],
  "id": "group_vote_shares",
  "notes": [
    "Education is split into degree and no degree only: the cumulative file defines its lower education groups differently after 2016. The other-races group has too few respondents in the earlier period to publish (fewer than 100) and has no row. Hispanic respondents are identified in the ANES from 1966.",
    "The ANES late-period elections lean Democratic relative to the certified counts (see the last section), so the later dots are higher than a count-based benchmark would give. Intervals are model based (Kish effective sample size, normal approximation) and ignore clustering in the sample design.",
    "Each period pools four elections, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988 against 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, and every election has the same total weight. The religion rows compare 1976 to 1988 with 2012 to 2020."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; weighted (weight_postelection where the file has one, else weight; each election has the same total weight); two-party presidential voters",
  "spec": {
    "group": "dimension",
    "hi1": "hi_0",
    "hi2": "hi_1",
    "label1": "1976 to 1988",
    "label2": "2012 to 2024",
    "lo1": "lo_0",
    "lo2": "lo_1",
    "n1": "n_0",
    "n2": "n_1",
    "reference": 50,
    "referenceLabel": "Even split",
    "sort": "data",
    "x1": "share_0",
    "x2": "share_1",
    "xDomain": [
      30,
      100
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "xLabel": "Democratic share of the group's voters (%)",
    "y": "group"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of each group's two-party presidential voters, percent, 1976 to 1988 and 2012 to 2024; pooled elections; 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "dimension",
        "label": "Dimension"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_0",
        "label": "Earlier period (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "lo_0",
        "label": "95% CI low earlier"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "hi_0",
        "label": "95% CI high earlier"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_0",
        "label": "n earlier"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_1",
        "label": "Later period (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "lo_1",
        "label": "95% CI low later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "hi_1",
        "label": "95% CI high later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_1",
        "label": "n later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Change (points)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The Democratic share rose more among four-year degree holders than in any other group",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "width": "wide"
}