{
  "alt": "Line chart of the highest-minus-lowest gap in the Democratic share for five presidential elections under three survey weights, with confidence bands clustered by state and a line at zero. With the cumulative-file weight the gap rises from {fact:gap_2008} in 2008 to {fact:gap_2024} in 2024, and the 2012, 2016 and 2020 bands include zero. The post-election weight gives {fact:gap_post_2012} in 2012, {fact:gap_post_2016} in 2016 and {fact:gap_post_2020} in 2020. The validated-vote weight gives {fact:gap_vv_2020} in 2020 and {fact:gap_vv_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The 2024 gap is above zero under both weights defined for it, and the 2016 and 2020 intervals include zero under every weight. The post-election weight puts the 2012 gap below zero, at {fact:gap_post_2012} points, where the cumulative-file interval includes zero, and moves the 2016 and 2020 estimates nearer zero. The 2020 point estimate is above zero under all three weights, from {fact:gap_post_2020} to {fact:gap_vv_2020} points. The cumulative-file weight covers all five elections, the post-election weight 2012, 2016 and 2020, and the validated-vote weight 2020 and 2024. Bands are confidence intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": -5.3927,
      "conf_low": -12.8933,
      "election": 2008,
      "estimate": -9.14298,
      "kish_high": -5.68224,
      "kish_low": -12.6037,
      "n": 5534,
      "series": "Cumulative file",
      "weight": "Cumulative-file weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.759839,
      "conf_low": -7.61014,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": -3.42515,
      "kish_high": 0.115252,
      "kish_low": -6.96555,
      "n": 9078,
      "series": "Cumulative file",
      "weight": "Cumulative-file weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.86827,
      "conf_low": -0.139254,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 3.36451,
      "kish_high": 6.18118,
      "kish_low": 0.547833,
      "n": 9764,
      "series": "Cumulative file",
      "weight": "Cumulative-file weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.24097,
      "conf_low": -0.996725,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": 2.62212,
      "kish_high": 5.02313,
      "kish_low": 0.221114,
      "n": 11775,
      "series": "Cumulative file",
      "weight": "Cumulative-file weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2586,
      "conf_low": 1.09806,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": 5.67832,
      "kish_high": 8.53409,
      "kish_low": 2.82256,
      "n": 12281,
      "series": "Cumulative file",
      "weight": "Cumulative-file weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.97685,
      "conf_low": -10.9139,
      "election": 2012,
      "estimate": -6.94539,
      "kish_high": -3.40292,
      "kish_low": -10.4879,
      "n": 9078,
      "series": "Post-election",
      "weight": "Post-election weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.60015,
      "conf_low": -1.68231,
      "election": 2016,
      "estimate": 1.95892,
      "kish_high": 5.06702,
      "kish_low": -1.14918,
      "n": 9764,
      "series": "Post-election",
      "weight": "Post-election weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.60035,
      "conf_low": -3.12144,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": 0.739454,
      "kish_high": 3.37056,
      "kish_low": -1.89165,
      "n": 11775,
      "series": "Post-election",
      "weight": "Post-election weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.67469,
      "conf_low": -1.04853,
      "election": 2020,
      "estimate": 2.81308,
      "kish_high": 5.44678,
      "kish_low": 0.17939,
      "n": 9585,
      "series": "Validated vote",
      "weight": "Validated-vote weight"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.18246,
      "conf_low": 0.197692,
      "election": 2024,
      "estimate": 4.19007,
      "kish_high": 7.11921,
      "kish_low": 1.26094,
      "n": 9405,
      "series": "Validated vote",
      "weight": "Validated-vote weight"
    }
  ],
  "id": "gap_by_weight",
  "notes": [
    "The post-election weight is not available for 2008 or 2024, and the validated-vote weight only for 2020 and 2024. Intervals use standard errors clustered by state (the states and the District of Columbia) and a normal approximation; they are model based.",
    "The table also gives the interval from the Kish effective sample size, which is narrower; under the cumulative-file weight it is above zero for both 2016 and 2020."
  ],
  "source": "Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, presidential years 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024; weighted (weight_cumulative, weight_post or vvweight, as labelled); two-party presidential voters who reported household income",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Cumulative file": "cat1",
      "Post-election": "cat2",
      "Validated vote": "cat3"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "election",
    "xDomain": [
      2008,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Presidential election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -14,
      12
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Highest minus lowest bracket (percentage points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in the highest bracket minus the lowest, percentage points, by election and survey weight; two-party voters who reported income; 95% intervals clustered by state",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "election",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "weight",
        "label": "Weight"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low (clustered by state)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high (clustered by state)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "kish_low",
        "label": "95% CI low (Kish)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "kish_high",
        "label": "95% CI high (Kish)"
      },
      {
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Under every weight the 2024 gap is above zero and the 2016 and 2020 gaps include zero",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}