{
  "alt": "Two lines by election year from 2006 to 2024, each scaled to its own 2006 value. The donor share, {fact:share_2006} in 2006 and {fact:share_2024} in 2024, falls by {fact:donor_rel_2006} of its 2006 level. The survey line of self-described moderates stays between {fact:ces_low} and {fact:ces_2006} with a dip in 2018 and no steady trend.",
  "caption": "The donor line ends {fact:donor_rel_2006} below its 2006 level and the survey line {fact:ces_rel_2006} below its own, and the survey line dips in 2018. The donor share fell from {fact:share_2006} in 2006 to {fact:share_2024} in 2024, and the survey share was {fact:ces_2006} in 2006, {fact:ces_low} in {fact:ces_low_year} and {fact:ces_2024} in 2024. The lines measure different things, a position estimated from giving among people who give and a five-point self-label among adults, and the band around the survey line is a 95% interval.",
  "data": [
    {
      "cycle": 2006,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 1142451,
      "percent": 7.84357,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2008,
      "index": 79.449,
      "n": 1425885,
      "percent": 6.23164,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2010,
      "index": 83.6046,
      "n": 1409984,
      "percent": 6.55759,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2012,
      "index": 58.6187,
      "n": 1805776,
      "percent": 4.5978,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2014,
      "index": 61.3199,
      "n": 1597010,
      "percent": 4.80968,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2016,
      "index": 43.4779,
      "n": 1978112,
      "percent": 3.41022,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2018,
      "index": 32.178,
      "n": 2161252,
      "percent": 2.52391,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2020,
      "index": 19.7206,
      "n": 3483649,
      "percent": 1.5468,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2022,
      "index": 17.7582,
      "n": 3082400,
      "percent": 1.39288,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2024,
      "index": 14.8175,
      "n": 2533588,
      "percent": 1.16223,
      "series": "Donors"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 101.5,
      "conf_low": 98.4996,
      "cycle": 2006,
      "index": 100,
      "n": 34189,
      "percent": 39.0483,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 91.4786,
      "conf_low": 88.1853,
      "cycle": 2008,
      "index": 89.832,
      "n": 30436,
      "percent": 35.0779,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 90.7514,
      "conf_low": 87.4224,
      "cycle": 2010,
      "index": 89.0869,
      "n": 52342,
      "percent": 34.787,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 94.742,
      "conf_low": 91.45,
      "cycle": 2012,
      "index": 93.096,
      "n": 50564,
      "percent": 36.3524,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 97.9734,
      "conf_low": 94.7027,
      "cycle": 2014,
      "index": 96.338,
      "n": 51022,
      "percent": 37.6184,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 99.0563,
      "conf_low": 96.2839,
      "cycle": 2016,
      "index": 97.6701,
      "n": 59815,
      "percent": 38.1386,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 80.2122,
      "conf_low": 77.3172,
      "cycle": 2018,
      "index": 78.7647,
      "n": 54950,
      "percent": 30.7563,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 86.959,
      "conf_low": 84.1147,
      "cycle": 2020,
      "index": 85.5369,
      "n": 56208,
      "percent": 33.4007,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 89.8395,
      "conf_low": 86.8231,
      "cycle": 2022,
      "index": 88.3313,
      "n": 55606,
      "percent": 34.4919,
      "series": "Moderates"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 92.3515,
      "conf_low": 88.8366,
      "cycle": 2024,
      "index": 90.5941,
      "n": 56384,
      "percent": 35.3755,
      "series": "Moderates"
    }
  ],
  "id": "moderates_comparison",
  "notes": [
    "This is a coarse comparison of direction. It does not date the change in either series, because the survey series starts in 2006, after part of the donor fall.",
    "The donor line is a full count and has no interval. The survey band is model based (Kish effective sample size) and ignores clustering; it is the interval of the survey share divided by the 2006 estimate, so it leaves out the uncertainty of the 2006 estimate itself."
  ],
  "source": "Stanford DIME v4.0 (Bonica), election cycles 2006-2024, full counts with no weights; Cooperative Election Study, election years 2006-2024, weighted with the single-wave survey weight",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "2006 level",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 100
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Donors": "cat1",
      "Moderates": "cat3"
    },
    "endLabels": true,
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "cycle",
    "xDomain": [
      2006,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "index",
    "yDomain": [
      0,
      120
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Index (2006 = 100)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Each series as a percent of its own 2006 value: reliable donors within 0.25 of zero (DIME) and adults who call themselves moderate (CES), by election year",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "cycle",
        "label": "Election year"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Series"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "percent",
        "label": "Percent"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "index",
        "label": "Index (2006 = 100)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval low (index)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval high (index)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Donors or respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The donor share near the center fell from {fact:share_2006} to {fact:share_2024} while self-described moderates stayed between {fact:ces_low} and {fact:ces_2006}",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "body"
}