{
  "alt": "Line chart of the gap between seldom and frequent attenders in the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, with confidence bands, for the ANES from 1972 to 2020 and the CES from 2008 to 2024. The ANES line is {fact:anes_gap_1972} points in 1972, {fact:anes_gap_1980} in 1980, {fact:anes_gap_1992} in 1992 and {fact:anes_gap_2020} in 2020. The CES line is {fact:ces_gap_2008} in 2008, {fact:ces_gap_2012} in 2012, {fact:ces_gap_2016} in 2016, {fact:ces_gap_2020} in 2020 and {fact:ces_gap_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The ANES gap has an interval that includes zero in 1980, 1984 and 1988 and lies above zero from 1992 on, and the CES gap lies above zero in every year from 2008. Each line joins presidential years, each band is a 95% interval, and a value above zero means that seldom attenders voted more Democratic than frequent attenders. The other views restrict the sample by race or by tradition.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 15.3068,
      "conf_low": 5.30161,
      "estimate": 10.3042,
      "frequent_dem": 30.2632,
      "n": 1389,
      "n_frequent": 684,
      "n_seldom": 705,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 40.5674,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.4883,
      "conf_low": 1.52238,
      "estimate": 7.50533,
      "frequent_dem": 46.0158,
      "n": 1114,
      "n_frequent": 578,
      "n_seldom": 536,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.5211,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.61683,
      "conf_low": -6.51678,
      "estimate": 0.05002,
      "frequent_dem": 38.7255,
      "n": 849,
      "n_frequent": 408,
      "n_seldom": 441,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 38.7755,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7844,
      "conf_low": -0.311256,
      "estimate": 5.23655,
      "frequent_dem": 37.7586,
      "n": 1201,
      "n_frequent": 580,
      "n_seldom": 621,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 42.9952,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.18351,
      "conf_low": -4.07148,
      "estimate": 2.05601,
      "frequent_dem": 45.0704,
      "n": 1019,
      "n_frequent": 497,
      "n_seldom": 522,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 47.1264,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.511,
      "conf_low": 6.18611,
      "estimate": 11.3486,
      "frequent_dem": 42.0316,
      "n": 1429,
      "n_frequent": 684,
      "n_seldom": 745,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.3801,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.454,
      "conf_low": 7.69957,
      "estimate": 14.5768,
      "frequent_dem": 46.7342,
      "n": 955,
      "n_frequent": 496,
      "n_seldom": 459,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 61.311,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.8683,
      "conf_low": 7.90317,
      "estimate": 14.8857,
      "frequent_dem": 43.5028,
      "n": 934,
      "n_frequent": 481,
      "n_seldom": 453,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 58.3885,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.7346,
      "conf_low": 4.51873,
      "estimate": 12.6266,
      "frequent_dem": 43.3085,
      "n": 687,
      "n_frequent": 316,
      "n_seldom": 371,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 55.9351,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.7651,
      "conf_low": 14.3552,
      "estimate": 21.0601,
      "frequent_dem": 41.1558,
      "n": 1266,
      "n_frequent": 600,
      "n_seldom": 666,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 62.2159,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.7774,
      "conf_low": 16.1534,
      "estimate": 20.4654,
      "frequent_dem": 40.7687,
      "n": 3741,
      "n_frequent": 1543,
      "n_seldom": 2198,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 61.2341,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.7125,
      "conf_low": 18.935,
      "estimate": 23.8237,
      "frequent_dem": 38.1811,
      "n": 2316,
      "n_frequent": 884,
      "n_seldom": 1432,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 62.0048,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.6941,
      "conf_low": 18.1618,
      "estimate": 21.9279,
      "frequent_dem": 40.369,
      "n": 5673,
      "n_frequent": 1723,
      "n_seldom": 3950,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 62.297,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.1122,
      "conf_low": 23.8678,
      "estimate": 25.49,
      "frequent_dem": 37.8892,
      "n": 21168,
      "n_frequent": 8021,
      "n_seldom": 13147,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 63.3792,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.91,
      "conf_low": 25.7106,
      "estimate": 27.3103,
      "frequent_dem": 35.0032,
      "n": 34381,
      "n_frequent": 11984,
      "n_seldom": 22397,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 62.3135,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.3922,
      "conf_low": 17.4324,
      "estimate": 18.9123,
      "frequent_dem": 37.9469,
      "n": 37373,
      "n_frequent": 10902,
      "n_seldom": 26471,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 56.8592,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.9325,
      "conf_low": 22.1178,
      "estimate": 23.5252,
      "frequent_dem": 36.4848,
      "n": 40514,
      "n_frequent": 10434,
      "n_seldom": 30080,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 60.01,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.3194,
      "conf_low": 26.0035,
      "estimate": 27.6615,
      "frequent_dem": 29.9404,
      "n": 39057,
      "n_frequent": 9415,
      "n_seldom": 29642,
      "sample": "All voters",
      "seldom_dem": 57.6018,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4596,
      "conf_low": 1.12216,
      "estimate": 6.2909,
      "frequent_dem": 30.1329,
      "n": 1281,
      "n_frequent": 677,
      "n_seldom": 604,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 36.4238,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.8147,
      "conf_low": -1.78958,
      "estimate": 4.51258,
      "frequent_dem": 46.1091,
      "n": 1020,
      "n_frequent": 570,
      "n_seldom": 450,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 50.6217,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.66326,
      "conf_low": -6.45167,
      "estimate": 0.605795,
      "frequent_dem": 38.806,
      "n": 742,
      "n_frequent": 402,
      "n_seldom": 340,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 39.4118,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.04219,
      "conf_low": -3.76446,
      "estimate": 2.13887,
      "frequent_dem": 37.3239,
      "n": 1052,
      "n_frequent": 568,
      "n_seldom": 484,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 39.4628,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.80369,
      "conf_low": -8.2395,
      "estimate": -1.7179,
      "frequent_dem": 44.7154,
      "n": 899,
      "n_frequent": 492,
      "n_seldom": 407,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 42.9975,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1735,
      "conf_low": 2.45069,
      "estimate": 8.31211,
      "frequent_dem": 41.4579,
      "n": 1131,
      "n_frequent": 643,
      "n_seldom": 488,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 49.77,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.5076,
      "conf_low": 7.94956,
      "estimate": 15.7286,
      "frequent_dem": 45.4657,
      "n": 770,
      "n_frequent": 469,
      "n_seldom": 301,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 61.1943,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.5505,
      "conf_low": 1.3454,
      "estimate": 9.44793,
      "frequent_dem": 44.0367,
      "n": 747,
      "n_frequent": 458,
      "n_seldom": 289,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.4846,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.6103,
      "conf_low": 1.40255,
      "estimate": 11.0064,
      "frequent_dem": 44.1331,
      "n": 503,
      "n_frequent": 292,
      "n_seldom": 211,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 55.1395,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.2801,
      "conf_low": 8.458,
      "estimate": 16.3691,
      "frequent_dem": 40.9355,
      "n": 962,
      "n_frequent": 568,
      "n_seldom": 394,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 57.3045,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.8966,
      "conf_low": 9.52703,
      "estimate": 14.7118,
      "frequent_dem": 40.7194,
      "n": 2555,
      "n_frequent": 1348,
      "n_seldom": 1207,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 55.4312,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.1779,
      "conf_low": 9.49729,
      "estimate": 15.3376,
      "frequent_dem": 37.5419,
      "n": 1556,
      "n_frequent": 797,
      "n_seldom": 759,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 52.8795,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.344,
      "conf_low": 7.19487,
      "estimate": 11.7694,
      "frequent_dem": 40.8806,
      "n": 3341,
      "n_frequent": 1403,
      "n_seldom": 1938,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 52.65,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.6786,
      "conf_low": 16.6309,
      "estimate": 18.6548,
      "frequent_dem": 33.2548,
      "n": 12201,
      "n_frequent": 5786,
      "n_seldom": 6415,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 51.9096,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.2303,
      "conf_low": 13.468,
      "estimate": 15.3491,
      "frequent_dem": 35.2562,
      "n": 22502,
      "n_frequent": 10669,
      "n_seldom": 11833,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 50.6053,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.8151,
      "conf_low": 7.25828,
      "estimate": 9.03671,
      "frequent_dem": 36.3089,
      "n": 22093,
      "n_frequent": 9457,
      "n_seldom": 12636,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 45.3456,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.7076,
      "conf_low": 9.25215,
      "estimate": 10.9799,
      "frequent_dem": 34.7662,
      "n": 21105,
      "n_frequent": 8674,
      "n_seldom": 12431,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 45.746,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.1972,
      "conf_low": 11.1821,
      "estimate": 13.1897,
      "frequent_dem": 28.9808,
      "n": 19980,
      "n_frequent": 7759,
      "n_seldom": 12221,
      "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 42.1705,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.9647,
      "conf_low": 4.82936,
      "estimate": 9.89701,
      "frequent_dem": 25.8842,
      "n": 1262,
      "n_frequent": 622,
      "n_seldom": 640,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 35.7812,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.6054,
      "conf_low": 2.08816,
      "estimate": 8.34678,
      "frequent_dem": 41.242,
      "n": 1009,
      "n_frequent": 523,
      "n_seldom": 486,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 49.5888,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.3023,
      "conf_low": -3.23041,
      "estimate": 3.53595,
      "frequent_dem": 30.0578,
      "n": 730,
      "n_frequent": 346,
      "n_seldom": 384,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 33.5938,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.8235,
      "conf_low": 3.20602,
      "estimate": 9.01476,
      "frequent_dem": 30.4348,
      "n": 1028,
      "n_frequent": 483,
      "n_seldom": 545,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 39.4495,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.0806,
      "conf_low": -0.069461,
      "estimate": 6.50559,
      "frequent_dem": 36,
      "n": 847,
      "n_frequent": 400,
      "n_seldom": 447,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 42.5056,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.4046,
      "conf_low": 12.3328,
      "estimate": 17.8687,
      "frequent_dem": 32.2102,
      "n": 1182,
      "n_frequent": 542,
      "n_seldom": 640,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 50.0789,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.8581,
      "conf_low": 15.0487,
      "estimate": 22.4534,
      "frequent_dem": 34.8053,
      "n": 783,
      "n_frequent": 386,
      "n_seldom": 397,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 57.2587,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.3803,
      "conf_low": 11.1284,
      "estimate": 18.7544,
      "frequent_dem": 36.1124,
      "n": 760,
      "n_frequent": 383,
      "n_seldom": 377,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 54.8667,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.0361,
      "conf_low": 9.67038,
      "estimate": 18.8532,
      "frequent_dem": 32.6834,
      "n": 513,
      "n_frequent": 230,
      "n_seldom": 283,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 51.5366,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.6641,
      "conf_low": 20.9497,
      "estimate": 28.8069,
      "frequent_dem": 26.5618,
      "n": 694,
      "n_frequent": 284,
      "n_seldom": 410,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 55.3687,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.0656,
      "conf_low": 24.4351,
      "estimate": 29.2504,
      "frequent_dem": 24.6726,
      "n": 2334,
      "n_frequent": 874,
      "n_seldom": 1460,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.923,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.1242,
      "conf_low": 22.574,
      "estimate": 27.8491,
      "frequent_dem": 25.6992,
      "n": 1759,
      "n_frequent": 652,
      "n_seldom": 1107,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.5483,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.8627,
      "conf_low": 26.0039,
      "estimate": 29.9333,
      "frequent_dem": 25.4167,
      "n": 4327,
      "n_frequent": 1292,
      "n_seldom": 3035,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 55.35,
      "source": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.6867,
      "conf_low": 30.4617,
      "estimate": 32.0742,
      "frequent_dem": 26.1733,
      "n": 17946,
      "n_frequent": 6653,
      "n_seldom": 11293,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 58.2476,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.6847,
      "conf_low": 31.3432,
      "estimate": 33.014,
      "frequent_dem": 24.8952,
      "n": 27803,
      "n_frequent": 9387,
      "n_seldom": 18416,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 57.9092,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.9278,
      "conf_low": 23.9125,
      "estimate": 25.4201,
      "frequent_dem": 25.6894,
      "n": 28306,
      "n_frequent": 7745,
      "n_seldom": 20561,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 51.1095,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.3209,
      "conf_low": 29.5878,
      "estimate": 30.9543,
      "frequent_dem": 23.211,
      "n": 30555,
      "n_frequent": 7406,
      "n_seldom": 23149,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 54.1654,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.4714,
      "conf_low": 32.1365,
      "estimate": 33.8039,
      "frequent_dem": 19.8597,
      "n": 29761,
      "n_frequent": 6803,
      "n_seldom": 22958,
      "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "seldom_dem": 53.6637,
      "source": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_gap",
  "notes": [
    "The ANES cumulative file's 2024 religion and attendance codes cannot be used, so the ANES line ends in 2020.",
    "Attendance groups follow the ANES three-category item: frequent is weekly or almost weekly, seldom is a few times a year or never. The CES has no almost-weekly answer, so its frequent group is the top two answers, once a week and more than once a week.",
    "A study enters only when each attendance group has at least {fact:floor_cell} respondents and an effective sample of the same size. Intervals are 95% intervals on the Kish effective sample size and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2020, and Cooperative Election Study, 2008-2024; weighted",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "CES": "cat1"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "CES"
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "source",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1970,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -10,
      40
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Gap (percentage points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote among seldom attenders (a few times a year or never) minus frequent attenders (weekly or nearly weekly, and weekly or more in the CES), reported voters, percentage points, 95% intervals; ANES 1972 to 2020 and CES 2008 to 2024",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "sample",
        "label": "Sample"
      },
      {
        "key": "source",
        "label": "Survey"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Year"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "seldom_dem",
        "label": "Seldom, Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "frequent_dem",
        "label": "Frequent, Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_seldom",
        "label": "Seldom voters"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_frequent",
        "label": "Frequent voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In the ANES the Democratic vote gap between seldom and frequent attenders included zero in 1980, 1984 and 1988, and in the 2024 CES it was {fact:ces_gap_2024} points",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "sample": "All voters"
      },
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All voters"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The gap is larger among white non-Hispanic voters than among all voters in most studies. In the 2024 CES it was {fact:ces_gap_white_2024} points, against {fact:ces_gap_2024} points among all voters.",
      "filter": {
        "sample": "White non-Hispanic voters"
      },
      "id": "white",
      "label": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "title": "Among white non-Hispanic voters the attendance gap reached {fact:ces_gap_white_2024} points in the 2024 CES"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Leaving out Jewish, other-religion and unaffiliated voters shrinks the gap, which was {fact:ces_gap_christian_2008} points in the 2008 CES and {fact:ces_gap_christian_2024} points in 2024, against {fact:ces_gap_2024} points among all voters in 2024.",
      "filter": {
        "sample": "Protestant and Catholic voters"
      },
      "id": "christian",
      "label": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "title": "Among Protestant and Catholic voters the attendance gap was smaller, at {fact:ces_gap_christian_2024} points in the 2024 CES"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}