{
  "alt": "Line chart with confidence bands of gaps in the Democratic two-party presidential vote. The Catholic-Protestant gap is {fact:den_1960} points in 1960, {fact:den_late} points in the pooled ANES studies of 2008 to 2020 and {fact:den_ces_2024} points in the 2024 CES. The attendance gap is {fact:anes_gap_1972} points in 1972, {fact:anes_gap_1980} in 1980, {fact:anes_gap_1992} in 1992 and {fact:ces_gap_2024} in the 2024 CES. The CES gap between the unaffiliated and Protestants is {fact:unaff_prot_2008} points in 2008 and {fact:unaff_prot_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The attendance gap (seldom minus frequent attenders) is larger than the denomination gap (Catholics minus Protestants) in {fact:n_dev_gt_den} of {fact:n_anes_since_1992} ANES studies from 1992 to 2020, with separate intervals in {fact:n_dev_apart_den}, and in all {fact:n_ces_years} CES presidential years, and the CES gap between the unaffiliated and Protestants is larger than both. Each point is a study or survey year and each band a 95% interval. Solid lines are the ANES and dashed lines the CES.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 15.3068,
      "conf_low": 5.30161,
      "estimate": 10.3042,
      "n": 1389,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.4883,
      "conf_low": 1.52238,
      "estimate": 7.50533,
      "n": 1114,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.61683,
      "conf_low": -6.51678,
      "estimate": 0.05002,
      "n": 849,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7844,
      "conf_low": -0.311256,
      "estimate": 5.23655,
      "n": 1201,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.18351,
      "conf_low": -4.07148,
      "estimate": 2.05601,
      "n": 1019,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.511,
      "conf_low": 6.18611,
      "estimate": 11.3486,
      "n": 1429,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.454,
      "conf_low": 7.69957,
      "estimate": 14.5768,
      "n": 955,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.8683,
      "conf_low": 7.90317,
      "estimate": 14.8857,
      "n": 934,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.7346,
      "conf_low": 4.51873,
      "estimate": 12.6266,
      "n": 687,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.7651,
      "conf_low": 14.3552,
      "estimate": 21.0601,
      "n": 1266,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.7774,
      "conf_low": 16.1534,
      "estimate": 20.4654,
      "n": 3741,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.7125,
      "conf_low": 18.935,
      "estimate": 23.8237,
      "n": 2316,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 25.6941,
      "conf_low": 18.1618,
      "estimate": 21.9279,
      "n": 5673,
      "series": "ANES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.1122,
      "conf_low": 23.8678,
      "estimate": 25.49,
      "n": 21168,
      "series": "CES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.91,
      "conf_low": 25.7106,
      "estimate": 27.3103,
      "n": 34381,
      "series": "CES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.3922,
      "conf_low": 17.4324,
      "estimate": 18.9123,
      "n": 37373,
      "series": "CES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 24.9325,
      "conf_low": 22.1178,
      "estimate": 23.5252,
      "n": 40514,
      "series": "CES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.3194,
      "conf_low": 26.0035,
      "estimate": 27.6615,
      "n": 39057,
      "series": "CES attendance",
      "tradition": "All voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.0029,
      "conf_low": 8.6728,
      "estimate": 15.3378,
      "n": 1104,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4293,
      "conf_low": 3.43374,
      "estimate": 9.93152,
      "n": 1181,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.7428,
      "conf_low": 38.7088,
      "estimate": 46.2258,
      "n": 847,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.1262,
      "conf_low": 10.194,
      "estimate": 16.1601,
      "n": 1035,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.0328,
      "conf_low": 14.5839,
      "estimate": 21.8083,
      "n": 963,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.7453,
      "conf_low": 2.68638,
      "estimate": 8.21582,
      "n": 1469,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.8331,
      "conf_low": 5.0848,
      "estimate": 11.4589,
      "n": 1219,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.94973,
      "conf_low": -6.2521,
      "estimate": 1.34882,
      "n": 839,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.7497,
      "conf_low": 2.73346,
      "estimate": 8.74158,
      "n": 1212,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.1415,
      "conf_low": 3.9241,
      "estimate": 10.5328,
      "n": 1070,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.7355,
      "conf_low": 0.125168,
      "estimate": 5.93036,
      "n": 1342,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1157,
      "conf_low": -0.950498,
      "estimate": 6.58261,
      "n": 912,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.95197,
      "conf_low": -6.07803,
      "estimate": 1.43697,
      "n": 911,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.2714,
      "conf_low": -4.18849,
      "estimate": 5.04145,
      "n": 610,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.0847,
      "conf_low": 1.22102,
      "estimate": 9.15285,
      "n": 1195,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.7064,
      "conf_low": 4.37393,
      "estimate": 9.54018,
      "n": 2927,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.4314,
      "conf_low": 2.77296,
      "estimate": 8.60216,
      "n": 1799,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.7816,
      "conf_low": 2.84233,
      "estimate": 7.31198,
      "n": 3745,
      "series": "ANES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.1505,
      "conf_low": 8.12614,
      "estimate": 10.1383,
      "n": 13915,
      "series": "CES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.83725,
      "conf_low": 6.05115,
      "estimate": 7.9442,
      "n": 25252,
      "series": "CES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.5122,
      "conf_low": 9.00852,
      "estimate": 10.7603,
      "n": 24840,
      "series": "CES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.4738,
      "conf_low": 8.96916,
      "estimate": 10.7215,
      "n": 23634,
      "series": "CES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.4357,
      "conf_low": 8.3152,
      "estimate": 10.3755,
      "n": 22174,
      "series": "CES denomination",
      "tradition": "Protestant and Catholic voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.5975,
      "conf_low": 34.7328,
      "estimate": 36.6652,
      "n": 13283,
      "series": "CES unaffiliated",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated and Protestant voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 34.1121,
      "conf_low": 30.4681,
      "estimate": 32.2901,
      "n": 25423,
      "series": "CES unaffiliated",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated and Protestant voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 31.5945,
      "conf_low": 28.5343,
      "estimate": 30.0644,
      "n": 27239,
      "series": "CES unaffiliated",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated and Protestant voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.778,
      "conf_low": 34.0328,
      "estimate": 35.4054,
      "n": 29897,
      "series": "CES unaffiliated",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated and Protestant voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.7024,
      "conf_low": 36.3456,
      "estimate": 38.024,
      "n": 28512,
      "series": "CES unaffiliated",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated and Protestant voters",
      "view": "gaps",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 41.2976,
      "conf_low": 36.0456,
      "estimate": 38.6716,
      "n": 1809,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.9389,
      "conf_low": 35.0339,
      "estimate": 37.4864,
      "n": 3002,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.3838,
      "conf_low": 40.3657,
      "estimate": 42.8748,
      "n": 2901,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.8708,
      "conf_low": 39.6636,
      "estimate": 42.2672,
      "n": 2434,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.7951,
      "conf_low": 33.5115,
      "estimate": 36.6533,
      "n": 2146,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 59.0595,
      "conf_low": 54.5427,
      "estimate": 56.8011,
      "n": 2705,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 58.1007,
      "conf_low": 53.8915,
      "estimate": 55.9961,
      "n": 4421,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.2297,
      "conf_low": 49.5296,
      "estimate": 51.3796,
      "n": 5220,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.5163,
      "conf_low": 49.7174,
      "estimate": 51.6169,
      "n": 5232,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.2168,
      "conf_low": 44.8979,
      "estimate": 47.0574,
      "n": 5074,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Catholic",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.4401,
      "conf_low": 29.1374,
      "estimate": 30.7887,
      "n": 3977,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 36.1257,
      "conf_low": 32.8911,
      "estimate": 34.5084,
      "n": 7667,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 35.1079,
      "conf_low": 32.0131,
      "estimate": 33.5605,
      "n": 6556,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.7355,
      "conf_low": 30.7956,
      "estimate": 32.2655,
      "n": 6240,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.1467,
      "conf_low": 24.7855,
      "estimate": 26.4661,
      "n": 5613,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.8886,
      "conf_low": 46.1142,
      "estimate": 48.0014,
      "n": 3710,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 48.8447,
      "conf_low": 45.5619,
      "estimate": 47.2033,
      "n": 7412,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.9551,
      "conf_low": 39.8834,
      "estimate": 41.4193,
      "n": 7416,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.2722,
      "conf_low": 40.4006,
      "estimate": 41.8364,
      "n": 7199,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 40.6209,
      "conf_low": 37.2114,
      "estimate": 38.9162,
      "n": 7147,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Protestant",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 62.9447,
      "conf_low": 46.0415,
      "estimate": 54.4931,
      "n": 266,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 60.2697,
      "conf_low": 46.7966,
      "estimate": 53.5331,
      "n": 386,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 66.2271,
      "conf_low": 52.8651,
      "estimate": 59.5461,
      "n": 369,
      "series": "Frequent",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 78.1282,
      "conf_low": 75.0416,
      "estimate": 76.5849,
      "n": 4351,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 76.2193,
      "conf_low": 73.2391,
      "estimate": 74.7292,
      "n": 7904,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 70.4309,
      "conf_low": 68.1303,
      "estimate": 69.2806,
      "n": 10803,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 74.7997,
      "conf_low": 72.8619,
      "estimate": 73.8308,
      "n": 14096,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 73.3597,
      "conf_low": 70.9386,
      "estimate": 72.1492,
      "n": 13762,
      "series": "Seldom",
      "tradition": "Unaffiliated",
      "view": "within",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "denomination_attendance",
  "notes": [
    "The ANES cumulative file's 2024 religion codes cannot be used: Protestants number {fact:anes_prot_2020} in 2020 and {fact:anes_prot_2024} in 2024 while Catholics are stable, so the ANES lines end in 2020. The CES gives a Catholic-Protestant gap of {fact:den_ces_2024} points in 2024. The ANES religion item cannot separate the unaffiliated from other faiths, so the unaffiliated line is CES only.",
    "A group needs at least {fact:floor_cell} respondents and an effective sample of the same size in a study. Intervals are 95% intervals on the Kish effective sample size and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2020, and Cooperative Election Study, 2008-2024; weighted",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES attendance": "cat1",
      "ANES denomination": "cat3",
      "CES attendance": "cat1",
      "CES denomination": "cat3",
      "CES unaffiliated": "cat4"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "CES attendance",
      "CES denomination",
      "CES unaffiliated"
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "series",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1950,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -15,
      55
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "yLabel": "Gap in Democratic vote share (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote among reported voters; gaps in percentage points and shares in percent; ANES 1952 to 2020 and CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "view",
        "label": "View"
      },
      {
        "key": "tradition",
        "label": "Tradition or sample"
      },
      {
        "key": "series",
        "label": "Series"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Year"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Estimate"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Since 1992 the attendance gap has been larger than the Catholic-Protestant gap, and the unaffiliated-Protestant gap is larger still",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "gaps"
      },
      "id": "gaps",
      "label": "Three gaps compared"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Each panel is one tradition in the CES, and seldom attenders (a few times a year or never) lie above frequent attenders (weekly or more) in every year. In 2024 the gap was {fact:within_prot_2024} points among Protestants and {fact:within_cath_2024} points among Catholics, against {fact:ces_gap_2024} points among all voters. Frequent unaffiliated voters are plotted only in 2012, 2016 and 2020, where they meet the sample floors, and the dashed rule marks an even split.",
      "filter": {
        "view": "within"
      },
      "id": "within",
      "label": "Attendance within each tradition",
      "spec": {
        "annotations": [
          {
            "type": "y-rule",
            "y": 50
          }
        ],
        "colors": {
          "Frequent": "cat1",
          "Seldom": "cat2"
        },
        "dashed": [
          "Seldom"
        ],
        "facet": "tradition",
        "facetColumns": 3,
        "xDomain": [
          2007,
          2025
        ],
        "yDomain": [
          20,
          80
        ],
        "yFormat": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "yLabel": "Democratic share (percent)"
      },
      "title": "Inside each tradition, seldom attenders voted more Democratic than frequent attenders, by a smaller margin than among all voters"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}