{
  "alt": "Two views of the CES vote gap by age group. The first is a dumbbell chart of the two gaps for each election, with the under-thirty gap to the left of the older gap until 2024. The second is a dot chart of the difference between them, with intervals below zero in 2008, 2012 and 2020 and including zero in 2016 and 2024. The difference is {fact:diff_2008} in 2008, {fact:diff_2012} in 2012, {fact:diff_2016} in 2016, {fact:diff_2020} in 2020 and {fact:diff_2024} in 2024, and {fact:vv_diff_2024} with the matched weight in 2024. With the matched weight the gap is {fact:vv_u30_gap_2024} under thirty and {fact:vv_o30_gap_2024} among older voters.",
  "caption": "The under-thirty gap sits left of the older gap through 2020 and right of it in 2024, where the difference, {fact:diff_2024}, has an interval that includes zero. The difference moved by {fact:diff_change_2020_2024} between 2020 and 2024, an interval that excludes zero by a small margin. The matched weight, in the bottom row, is compared for 2024 only, because in 2020 the two weights give the same gap.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "youth_vs_older_gap",
  "notes": [
    "Each gap has its own interval, and the interval of the difference combines the two standard errors as if the two age groups were independent samples."
  ],
  "source": "CES Cumulative File, 2008-2024; weighted (survey weights; the weight for respondents matched to voter-file records in the matched-weight rows)",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each presidential election from 2008 to 2024 and a last row for 2024 with the matched weight, joining the vote gap among voters thirty and older to the gap among voters under thirty, with 95% intervals. The under-thirty dot is to the left of the older dot from 2008 to 2020 and to the right in 2024.",
          "caption": "Change is the under-thirty gap minus the gap at thirty and over, and the difference tab plots it with its interval.",
          "data": [
            {
              "diff": -8.89995,
              "diff_hi": -4.62861,
              "diff_lo": -13.1713,
              "gap_o30": 8.29821,
              "gap_u30": -0.601738,
              "hi_o30": 9.91766,
              "hi_u30": 3.3507,
              "label": "2008",
              "lo_o30": 6.67876,
              "lo_u30": -4.55417,
              "n_o30": 20258,
              "n_u30": 3327,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "diff": -5.97544,
              "diff_hi": -0.891756,
              "diff_lo": -11.0591,
              "gap_o30": 6.24481,
              "gap_u30": 0.269373,
              "hi_o30": 7.78565,
              "hi_u30": 5.11392,
              "label": "2012",
              "lo_o30": 4.70397,
              "lo_u30": -4.57517,
              "n_o30": 34237,
              "n_u30": 3552,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "diff": -3.95322,
              "diff_hi": 0.413966,
              "diff_lo": -8.32042,
              "gap_o30": 8.31994,
              "gap_u30": 4.36671,
              "hi_o30": 9.70458,
              "hi_u30": 8.50859,
              "label": "2016",
              "lo_o30": 6.93529,
              "lo_u30": 0.224841,
              "n_o30": 36873,
              "n_u30": 4018,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "diff": -5.98449,
              "diff_hi": -1.90009,
              "diff_lo": -10.0689,
              "gap_o30": 9.13676,
              "gap_u30": 3.15228,
              "hi_o30": 10.436,
              "hi_u30": 7.02454,
              "label": "2020",
              "lo_o30": 7.83757,
              "lo_u30": -0.71998,
              "n_o30": 39512,
              "n_u30": 4360,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "diff": 2.5886,
              "diff_hi": 8.93209,
              "diff_lo": -3.75489,
              "gap_o30": 3.93806,
              "gap_u30": 6.52666,
              "hi_o30": 5.43943,
              "hi_u30": 12.6899,
              "label": "2024",
              "lo_o30": 2.43669,
              "lo_u30": 0.363401,
              "n_o30": 38779,
              "n_u30": 2978,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "diff": 4.23732,
              "diff_hi": 12.1416,
              "diff_lo": -3.66698,
              "gap_o30": 7.31805,
              "gap_u30": 11.5554,
              "hi_o30": 8.85547,
              "hi_u30": 19.3087,
              "label": "2024, matched",
              "lo_o30": 5.78063,
              "lo_u30": 3.80203,
              "n_o30": 31428,
              "n_u30": 1348,
              "weighting": "Matched weight"
            }
          ],
          "id": "youth_vs_older_pair",
          "spec": {
            "hi1": "hi_o30",
            "hi2": "hi_u30",
            "label1": "Age 30 and over",
            "label2": "Under 30",
            "lo1": "lo_o30",
            "lo2": "lo_u30",
            "n1": "n_o30",
            "n2": "n_u30",
            "reference": 0,
            "sort": "data",
            "x1": "gap_o30",
            "x2": "gap_u30",
            "xDomain": [
              -8,
              22
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Gap in Democratic share of two-party vote (points)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "Gap by age group, points; the open dot is the gap at 30 and over and the filled dot the gap under 30",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "label",
                "label": "Election"
              },
              {
                "key": "weighting",
                "label": "Weight"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_o30",
                "label": "Gap, 30 and over"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "lo_o30",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "hi_o30",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_u30",
                "label": "Gap, under 30"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "lo_u30",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "hi_u30",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "diff",
                "label": "Under 30 minus 30 and over"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "diff_lo",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "diff_hi",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "The two gaps, election by election",
          "type": "dumbbell"
        },
        "label": "The two gaps"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot chart with one row for each presidential election from 2008 to 2024 and a last row for 2024 with the matched weight, each showing the under-thirty vote gap minus the gap among older voters with a 95% interval. The intervals for 2008, 2012 and 2020 lie left of zero. The intervals for 2016, 2024 and the 2024 matched-weight row include zero.",
          "caption": "The difference is {fact:diff_2008} in 2008, {fact:diff_2012} in 2012, {fact:diff_2016} in 2016, {fact:diff_2020} in 2020 and {fact:diff_2024} in 2024, and {fact:vv_diff_2024} with the matched weight in 2024.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": -4.62861,
              "conf_low": -13.1713,
              "estimate": -8.89995,
              "label": "2008",
              "n": 23585,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -0.891756,
              "conf_low": -11.0591,
              "estimate": -5.97544,
              "label": "2012",
              "n": 37789,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 0.413966,
              "conf_low": -8.32042,
              "estimate": -3.95322,
              "label": "2016",
              "n": 40891,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -1.90009,
              "conf_low": -10.0689,
              "estimate": -5.98449,
              "label": "2020",
              "n": 43872,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 8.93209,
              "conf_low": -3.75489,
              "estimate": 2.5886,
              "label": "2024",
              "n": 41757,
              "weighting": "Standard weight"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 12.1416,
              "conf_low": -3.66698,
              "estimate": 4.23732,
              "label": "2024, matched",
              "n": 32776,
              "weighting": "Matched weight"
            }
          ],
          "id": "youth_gap_difference",
          "spec": {
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "reference": 0,
            "referenceLabel": "No difference",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              -18,
              16
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Under-30 gap minus older gap (points)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "Under-30 gap minus the gap at 30 and over, points, with the 95% interval of the difference; below zero means a smaller youth gap",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "label",
                "label": "Election"
              },
              {
                "key": "weighting",
                "label": "Weight"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "estimate",
                "label": "Difference (points)"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "conf_low",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "conf_high",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n",
                "label": "Voters"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "The difference between the two gaps",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "The difference"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, by age group and election; CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "title": "The under-thirty vote gap was smaller than the older gap in 2008, 2012 and 2020 and not in 2024",
  "type": "tabs",
  "width": "wide"
}