{
  "alt": "Dot chart with a row for each race group and election that clears the size floor, each showing the women-minus-men gap in the Democratic vote among voters under thirty with a 95% interval. Every interval is wide, the Hispanic rows sit to the right of the white rows, and the white intervals all include zero. The pooled gap is {fact:pooled_gap_hispanic} among Hispanic voters and {fact:pooled_gap_white} among white voters.",
  "caption": "Only white voters have a group large enough in every election shown, and the Hispanic estimates sit to the right of the white ones, but their intervals are wide and overlap the white intervals. The pooled gap is {fact:pooled_gap_hispanic} among Hispanic voters and {fact:pooled_gap_white} among white voters, a difference of {fact:pooled_race_diff}. A group is drawn only when its women and its men each have {fact:cell_floor} respondents and an effective sample of {fact:cell_floor}.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 9.21828,
      "conf_low": 1.50319,
      "estimate": 5.36073,
      "label": "All voters, pooled",
      "n": 7338
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.72646,
      "conf_low": -3.76054,
      "estimate": 1.48296,
      "label": "White, 2016",
      "n": 2601
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.45457,
      "conf_low": -4.36613,
      "estimate": 0.544222,
      "label": "White, 2020",
      "n": 2861
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.2486,
      "conf_low": -4.17488,
      "estimate": 3.53685,
      "label": "White, 2024",
      "n": 1800
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.11359,
      "conf_low": -2.51918,
      "estimate": 2.29721,
      "label": "White, pooled",
      "n": 4661
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.6264,
      "conf_low": 0.783223,
      "estimate": 10.2048,
      "label": "Hispanic, 2016",
      "n": 645
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.9118,
      "conf_low": -1.6861,
      "estimate": 8.11285,
      "label": "Hispanic, 2020",
      "n": 588
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.3978,
      "conf_low": 1.00791,
      "estimate": 11.2028,
      "label": "Hispanic, pooled",
      "n": 1092
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.6312,
      "conf_low": -5.55723,
      "estimate": 4.03699,
      "label": "Asian, 2020",
      "n": 344
    }
  ],
  "id": "youth_gap_by_race",
  "notes": [
    "Black groups miss the floor in every election, Asian groups clear it only in 2020, and Hispanic groups clear it in 2016 and 2020 but not in 2024, when the effective samples of the Black, Hispanic and Asian groups run from {fact:race_neff_min_2024} to {fact:race_neff_max_2024}.",
    "Pooling two elections can lower a group's effective sample when the weights in one year vary a lot: among Asian voters the smaller group has an effective sample of {fact:asian_neff_2020} in 2020 and {fact:asian_neff_pooled} pooled, so the pooled Asian estimate is not drawn. Groups that miss the floor are left out, not shown with wider intervals."
  ],
  "source": "CES Cumulative File, 2016-2024; weighted (survey weights)",
  "spec": {
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -15,
      25
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "xLabel": "Gap in Democratic share of two-party vote (points)",
    "y": "label"
  },
  "subtitle": "Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, voters aged 18 to 29, by race; single elections and 2020 and 2024 pooled; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "label",
        "label": "Group and period"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower 95%"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper 95%"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Among voters under thirty, few race-by-gender groups are large enough to compare",
  "type": "dot",
  "width": "wide"
}