{
  "alt": "Line chart of the women-minus-men gap in the Democratic two-party vote by election year. The ANES estimate is below zero from 1952 to 1960 and above zero from 1964 to 2024, and it is highest in 1996 at {fact:anes_gap_1996}. Its bands include zero at {fact:n_anes_ci_zero} elections since 1964, among them 1976, when the estimate is {fact:anes_gap_1976}. The CES line for 2008 to 2024 has narrower bands and turns down in 2024, to {fact:ces_gap_2024}, where the ANES line turns up, to {fact:anes_gap_2024}. In 2012 and 2024 the ANES face-to-face gap is below the web gap, {fact:anes_ftf_gap_2012} against {fact:anes_web_gap_2012} in 2012 and {fact:anes_ftf_gap_2024} against {fact:anes_web_gap_2024} in 2024, with intervals that overlap.",
  "caption": "The CES, a larger survey, sits above the ANES in 2020 by {fact:ces_anes_diff_2020} and below it in 2024, when the CES gap falls and the ANES gap estimate rises, although the two surveys' intervals overlap at every election. The ANES estimate is below zero in 1952, 1956 and 1960 and above zero from 1964, but its interval includes zero at {fact:n_anes_ci_zero} of the {fact:n_anes_elections} elections since 1964, and its highest estimate is {fact:anes_gap_1996} in 1996 against {fact:anes_gap_2024} in 2024. Bands are 95% intervals.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 3.52162,
      "conf_low": -7.74273,
      "estimate": -2.11055,
      "n": 1181,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.784661,
      "conf_low": -11.5959,
      "estimate": -6.19028,
      "n": 1266,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.34731,
      "conf_low": -13.0688,
      "estimate": -5.36076,
      "n": 898,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.26609,
      "conf_low": -1.82196,
      "estimate": 3.72206,
      "n": 1111,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.6692,
      "conf_low": -1.40906,
      "estimate": 4.63005,
      "n": 1027,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.3044,
      "conf_low": 1.8827,
      "estimate": 6.59355,
      "n": 1587,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.79065,
      "conf_low": -5.29239,
      "estimate": 0.249131,
      "n": 1322,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.0871,
      "conf_low": 0.671126,
      "estimate": 6.87911,
      "n": 958,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.8284,
      "conf_low": 2.3778,
      "estimate": 7.60309,
      "n": 1376,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.1542,
      "conf_low": 0.791387,
      "estimate": 6.4728,
      "n": 1195,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.8997,
      "conf_low": 5.29471,
      "estimate": 10.0972,
      "n": 1658,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.3359,
      "conf_low": 8.39745,
      "estimate": 14.8667,
      "n": 1116,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.4479,
      "conf_low": 2.37641,
      "estimate": 8.91218,
      "n": 1120,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.6243,
      "conf_low": -0.449089,
      "estimate": 7.08761,
      "n": 811,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.3368,
      "conf_low": -1.23892,
      "estimate": 5.04893,
      "n": 1539,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.27299,
      "conf_low": 1.10877,
      "estimate": 5.19088,
      "n": 4188,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.6735,
      "conf_low": 1.32227,
      "estimate": 5.99789,
      "n": 2579,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.62045,
      "conf_low": 0.589177,
      "estimate": 4.10481,
      "n": 6183,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.5828,
      "conf_low": 3.62277,
      "estimate": 8.1028,
      "n": 3943,
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.893,
      "conf_low": 4.81443,
      "estimate": 6.35371,
      "n": 23585,
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.79904,
      "conf_low": 3.74255,
      "estimate": 5.27079,
      "n": 37789,
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.50618,
      "conf_low": 6.85642,
      "estimate": 8.1813,
      "n": 40891,
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.86219,
      "conf_low": 7.38485,
      "estimate": 8.62352,
      "n": 43872,
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.65794,
      "conf_low": 2.62845,
      "estimate": 4.14319,
      "n": 41757,
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_gap_long_run",
  "notes": [
    "The ANES added web interviews in 2012. The gap is {fact:anes_ftf_gap_2012} among face-to-face respondents and {fact:anes_web_gap_2012} among web respondents in 2012, and {fact:anes_ftf_gap_2024} and {fact:anes_web_gap_2024} in 2024; each face-to-face interval includes zero. The file has no mode weights for 2020.",
    "In 2024 the CES weight for respondents matched to voter-file records gives {fact:ces_vv_gap_2024}, and the standard weight on the same respondents gives {fact:ces_std_matched_2024}."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024, and CES Cumulative File, 2008-2024; weighted with each survey's survey weights (the ANES post-election weight where the file has one)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "Equal Democratic share",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      },
      {
        "label": "1996 peak",
        "type": "point",
        "x": 1996,
        "y": 14.8667
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "CES": "cat2"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "survey",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1950,
      2026
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -15,
      25
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Gap in Democratic share of two-party vote (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, among voters for a major-party candidate; ANES 1952 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "survey",
        "label": "Survey"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower 95%"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "thousands": false
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper 95%"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The ANES vote gap estimate has been positive since 1964 and peaked at {fact:anes_gap_1996} points in 1996",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}