{
  "alt": "Two views of the CES vote gap by age group. The first is a dot chart of the change from 2020 to 2024, with intervals left of zero for the three older groups and an interval that includes zero for the youngest group, whose change is {fact:u30_change_2020_2024}. The second is a dumbbell chart of the 2024 gap under two weights: at ages thirty to forty-four the standard-weight gap is {fact:band_gap_2024_30_44}, at forty-five to sixty-four it is {fact:band_gap_2024_45_64} and at sixty-five and older it is {fact:band_gap_2024_65p}. With the matched weight the gap is {fact:vv_band_gap_2024_18_29} at ages eighteen to twenty-nine and {fact:vv_band_gap_2024_65p} at sixty-five and older.",
  "caption": "The gap fell in each of the three older age groups, by {fact:o30_change_2020_2024} among voters thirty and older, while the youngest group's change, {fact:u30_change_2020_2024}, has an interval that includes zero.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "vote_gap_by_age",
  "source": "CES Cumulative File, 2020-2024; weighted (survey weights; the weight for respondents matched to voter-file records in the matched-weight rows)",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot chart of the change in the women-minus-men vote gap between 2020 and 2024 for four age groups, each with a 95% interval. The intervals for the three older groups lie left of zero. The interval for the youngest group includes zero and its estimate is to the right of zero.",
          "caption": "Each dot is the change for one age group with its 95% interval; an interval that stays left of zero is a fall.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 10.6531,
              "conf_low": -3.90436,
              "estimate": 3.37438,
              "gap_2020": 3.15228,
              "gap_2024": 6.52666,
              "label": "Ages 18 to 29",
              "n": 7338
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -2.01742,
              "conf_low": -10.393,
              "estimate": -6.2052,
              "gap_2020": 7.20135,
              "gap_2024": 0.996146,
              "label": "Ages 30 to 44",
              "n": 16863
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -2.63767,
              "conf_low": -8.60546,
              "estimate": -5.62156,
              "gap_2020": 9.12315,
              "gap_2024": 3.50159,
              "label": "Ages 45 to 64",
              "n": 34547
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -0.700433,
              "conf_low": -7.39029,
              "estimate": -4.04536,
              "gap_2020": 11.2934,
              "gap_2024": 7.24807,
              "label": "Ages 65 and over",
              "n": 26881
            }
          ],
          "id": "age_band_change",
          "spec": {
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "reference": 0,
            "referenceLabel": "No change",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              -12,
              12
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Change in the gap, 2024 minus 2020 (points)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "2024 gap minus 2020 gap, points, by age group; standard weight",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "label",
                "label": "Age group"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_2020",
                "label": "Gap in 2020"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_2024",
                "label": "Gap in 2024"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "estimate",
                "label": "Change (points)"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "conf_low",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "conf_high",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n",
                "label": "Voters"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "Change in the gap from 2020 to 2024",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "Change since 2020"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row for each of four age groups, joining the 2024 women-minus-men vote gap under the standard weight to the gap under the weight for respondents matched to voter-file records, with 95% intervals. The matched-weight gap is larger in every group.",
          "caption": "The oldest group's gap is {fact:band_gap_2024_65p} with the standard weight and {fact:vv_band_gap_2024_65p} with the matched weight, and the youngest group's is {fact:u30_gap_2024} and {fact:vv_band_gap_2024_18_29}. The matched weight is the CES weight for respondents matched to voter-file records, available for 2024 only, and Change is the matched-weight gap minus the standard-weight gap.",
          "data": [
            {
              "gap_std": 6.52666,
              "gap_vv": 11.5554,
              "hi_std": 12.6899,
              "hi_vv": 19.3087,
              "label": "Ages 18 to 29",
              "lo_std": 0.363401,
              "lo_vv": 3.80203,
              "n_std": 2978,
              "n_vv": 1348
            },
            {
              "gap_std": 0.996146,
              "gap_vv": 5.09802,
              "hi_std": 4.3654,
              "hi_vv": 8.66414,
              "label": "Ages 30 to 44",
              "lo_std": -2.37311,
              "lo_vv": 1.53191,
              "n_std": 6993,
              "n_vv": 5152
            },
            {
              "gap_std": 3.50159,
              "gap_vv": 6.0731,
              "hi_std": 5.8226,
              "hi_vv": 8.28175,
              "label": "Ages 45 to 64",
              "lo_std": 1.18057,
              "lo_vv": 3.86445,
              "n_std": 16800,
              "n_vv": 13593
            },
            {
              "gap_std": 7.24807,
              "gap_vv": 11.0714,
              "hi_std": 9.52254,
              "hi_vv": 13.5533,
              "label": "Ages 65 and over",
              "lo_std": 4.9736,
              "lo_vv": 8.58939,
              "n_std": 14986,
              "n_vv": 12683
            }
          ],
          "id": "age_band_weights",
          "spec": {
            "hi1": "hi_std",
            "hi2": "hi_vv",
            "label1": "Standard weight",
            "label2": "Matched weight",
            "lo1": "lo_std",
            "lo2": "lo_vv",
            "n1": "n_std",
            "n2": "n_vv",
            "reference": 0,
            "sort": "data",
            "x1": "gap_std",
            "x2": "gap_vv",
            "xDomain": [
              -6,
              22
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 1
            },
            "xLabel": "Gap in Democratic share of two-party vote (points)",
            "y": "label"
          },
          "subtitle": "Gap in 2024, points, by age group; the open dot is the standard weight and the filled dot the matched weight",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "label",
                "label": "Age group"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_std",
                "label": "Standard weight"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "lo_std",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "hi_std",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n_std",
                "label": "Voters"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "gap_vv",
                "label": "Matched weight"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "lo_vv",
                "label": "Lower 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1,
                  "thousands": false
                },
                "key": "hi_vv",
                "label": "Upper 95%"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 0,
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n_vv",
                "label": "Voters"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "The 2024 gap under two weights",
          "type": "dumbbell"
        },
        "label": "Gap in 2024 by weight"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Women's minus men's Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, by age group; CES 2020 and 2024; 95% intervals",
  "title": "In the CES the vote gap fell after 2020 in every age group except the youngest",
  "type": "tabs",
  "width": "wide"
}