{
  "alt": "Four small line charts, one for each group of counties by non-Hispanic white share, plotting the slope of the Democratic share on college share from 2000 to 2024. Each panel rises over the period. In the counties {fact:wg_cut90} white or more the vote-weighted slope goes from {fact:wg_90p_w_2000} to {fact:wg_90p_w_2024}; in the counties under {fact:wg_cut50} white it goes from {fact:wg_lt50_w_2000} to {fact:wg_lt50_w_2024}.",
  "caption": "Every panel ends higher than it starts, so the slope did not rise only where counties are mostly white. The change from 2000 to 2024 in the vote-weighted slope is {fact:wgchg_90p_w} in the counties {fact:wg_cut90} white or more and {fact:wgchg_lt50_w} in the counties under {fact:wg_cut50} white, where the interval includes zero; the two intervals nearly touch vote-weighted and overlap county-equal, so these data do not rank the changes. Each panel plots the slope per {fact:x_unit} points of college share inside one group; the solid line counts counties by their two-party votes and the dashed line counts each county once; bands are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 7.26575,
      "conf_low": -1.2244,
      "estimate": 4.37586,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 253,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.39377,
      "conf_low": 2.10075,
      "estimate": 5.88905,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 284,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.13975,
      "conf_low": 2.70465,
      "estimate": 5.12936,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 309,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.19097,
      "conf_low": 2.04076,
      "estimate": 4.5129,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 339,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.78252,
      "conf_low": 4.80882,
      "estimate": 6.57034,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 360,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.51375,
      "conf_low": 4.4398,
      "estimate": 6.18679,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 386,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.27993,
      "conf_low": 4.45037,
      "estimate": 6.15929,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 404,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.13466,
      "conf_low": 0.488466,
      "estimate": 3.59141,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 253,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.84144,
      "conf_low": 2.90777,
      "estimate": 5.49082,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 284,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.66713,
      "conf_low": 3.60931,
      "estimate": 5.63163,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 309,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.64833,
      "conf_low": 2.86731,
      "estimate": 5.42223,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 339,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.37447,
      "conf_low": 5.13126,
      "estimate": 7.43956,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 360,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.96192,
      "conf_low": 4.83584,
      "estimate": 7.55951,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 386,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.3597,
      "conf_low": 4.4363,
      "estimate": 7.29013,
      "group": "Under 50% white",
      "n_units": 404,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.16949,
      "conf_low": 1.95196,
      "estimate": 3.48533,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 635,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.14431,
      "conf_low": 3.50863,
      "estimate": 4.70582,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 661,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.39297,
      "conf_low": 4.44565,
      "estimate": 5.9288,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 710,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.18347,
      "conf_low": 4.23329,
      "estimate": 5.71023,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 740,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.66011,
      "conf_low": 7.12958,
      "estimate": 8.36097,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 767,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.1759,
      "conf_low": 7.66925,
      "estimate": 8.99213,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 816,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.4261,
      "conf_low": 7.70353,
      "estimate": 9.13541,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 855,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.46394,
      "conf_low": 1.11512,
      "estimate": 2.85426,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 635,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.23755,
      "conf_low": 3.42819,
      "estimate": 4.78194,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 661,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.38868,
      "conf_low": 5.85083,
      "estimate": 7.00507,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 710,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.58853,
      "conf_low": 5.07365,
      "estimate": 6.226,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 740,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.92828,
      "conf_low": 7.09168,
      "estimate": 8.45433,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 767,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.6492,
      "conf_low": 7.93008,
      "estimate": 9.25498,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 816,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2118,
      "conf_low": 7.70695,
      "estimate": 8.9536,
      "group": "50 to under 75% white",
      "n_units": 855,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.43995,
      "conf_low": 1.41006,
      "estimate": 3.51405,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 724,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.73302,
      "conf_low": 3.12904,
      "estimate": 5.07974,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 784,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.69137,
      "conf_low": 3.24102,
      "estimate": 5.10934,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 808,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.60206,
      "conf_low": 2.94726,
      "estimate": 5.00304,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 841,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.53429,
      "conf_low": 6.5002,
      "estimate": 8.11362,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 900,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.6135,
      "conf_low": 7.2515,
      "estimate": 8.42819,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 998,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.47823,
      "conf_low": 7.06411,
      "estimate": 8.2524,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 1057,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.2945,
      "conf_low": 1.38293,
      "estimate": 2.85351,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 724,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.17544,
      "conf_low": 3.23282,
      "estimate": 4.81546,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 784,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.57808,
      "conf_low": 4.92678,
      "estimate": 6.35798,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 808,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.6304,
      "conf_low": 4.91502,
      "estimate": 6.34562,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 841,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.1347,
      "conf_low": 8.09068,
      "estimate": 9.11813,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 900,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.615,
      "conf_low": 8.82129,
      "estimate": 9.70537,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 998,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.3467,
      "conf_low": 8.54663,
      "estimate": 9.41112,
      "group": "75 to under 90% white",
      "n_units": 1057,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.93919,
      "conf_low": -0.508251,
      "estimate": 1.14902,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1502,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.75612,
      "conf_low": 0.371368,
      "estimate": 2.42169,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1384,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.60077,
      "conf_low": 2.7118,
      "estimate": 5.10158,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1286,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.69027,
      "conf_low": 3.90334,
      "estimate": 6.33563,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1192,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.0875,
      "conf_low": 7.50386,
      "estimate": 9.88071,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1086,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.2087,
      "conf_low": 7.53784,
      "estimate": 10.3822,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 905,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.7655,
      "conf_low": 7.68896,
      "estimate": 10.8408,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 787,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.1286,
      "conf_low": -2.21727,
      "estimate": 0.0677488,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1502,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.72506,
      "conf_low": -0.632664,
      "estimate": 1.53909,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1384,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.45209,
      "conf_low": 1.80326,
      "estimate": 4.13203,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1286,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.39634,
      "conf_low": 2.02657,
      "estimate": 4.7063,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1192,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7815,
      "conf_low": 5.35138,
      "estimate": 8.02558,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 1086,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.0458,
      "conf_low": 5.77677,
      "estimate": 8.97551,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 905,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.8066,
      "conf_low": 5.23739,
      "estimate": 8.70588,
      "group": "90% or more white",
      "n_units": 787,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "white_groups",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. Groups are formed from the non-Hispanic white share at each election, so a county can change group.",
    "Counties per group in 2000 and 2024: under {fact:wg_cut50} white, {fact:wgn_lt50_2000} and {fact:wgn_lt50_2024}; {fact:wg_cut50} to under {fact:wg_cut75}, {fact:wgn_50_75_2000} and {fact:wgn_50_75_2024}; {fact:wg_cut75} to under {fact:wg_cut90}, {fact:wgn_75_90_2000} and {fact:wgn_75_90_2024}; {fact:wg_cut90} or more, {fact:wgn_90p_2000} and {fact:wgn_90p_2024}."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "County-equal": "highlight",
      "Vote-weighted": "total"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "County-equal"
    ],
    "facet": "group",
    "facetColumns": 2,
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "weighting",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2000,
      2024
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -3,
      14
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share"
  },
  "subtitle": "Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share inside four groups of counties by non-Hispanic white share of residents at the election, 2000 to 2024, vote-weighted and county-equal",
  "title": "The slope was higher in 2024 than in 2000 in all four groups of counties by white share, with the largest point change among counties {fact:wg_cut90} white or more",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}