{
  "alt": "Dot chart with three panels, for the changes in the slope from 2000 to 2008, 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to 2024, and six rows in each panel for six versions of the slope, vote-weighted. In the first two panels every dot is to the right of zero with its interval; in the last panel the dots lie between {fact:step_w_1624} for college share alone and {fact:adj_step_max_w}, nearer zero than in the other panels. The county-equal view shows every 2016 to 2024 change above zero.",
  "caption": "The rises to 2008 and to 2016 are positive in every row, and the change after 2016 is smaller than either, with an interval that includes zero only for college share alone, vote-weighted. The six versions are college share alone, with race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, within states with race and ethnicity held fixed, and the slope on each county's 2000 or 2024 college share held fixed for every election; each dot is the change in the slope between two elections, with a 95% interval from resampling states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 3.01139,
      "conf_low": 1.28305,
      "estimate": 2.07521,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.78174,
      "conf_low": 2.74617,
      "estimate": 3.23629,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.380735,
      "conf_low": -0.381037,
      "estimate": -0.0146015,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.72574,
      "conf_low": 1.25083,
      "estimate": 2.09437,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.87884,
      "conf_low": 2.83913,
      "estimate": 3.23963,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.25077,
      "conf_low": 0.177121,
      "estimate": 0.640459,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.72859,
      "conf_low": 1.56434,
      "estimate": 2.14301,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.02605,
      "conf_low": 2.91969,
      "estimate": 3.45838,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.664311,
      "conf_low": 0.0658826,
      "estimate": 0.354559,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.4082,
      "conf_low": 2.08495,
      "estimate": 2.67109,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.05225,
      "conf_low": 3.26364,
      "estimate": 3.64171,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.45935,
      "conf_low": 0.746501,
      "estimate": 1.11356,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.07437,
      "conf_low": 1.41002,
      "estimate": 2.1718,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.55818,
      "conf_low": 3.51245,
      "estimate": 3.97787,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.04544,
      "conf_low": 0.319211,
      "estimate": 0.671243,
      "n_units": 3102,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.36662,
      "conf_low": 0.925464,
      "estimate": 1.58212,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.69892,
      "conf_low": 2.75744,
      "estimate": 3.19825,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.835178,
      "conf_low": 0.110266,
      "estimate": 0.44208,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.48018,
      "conf_low": 2.55825,
      "estimate": 3.55333,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.36866,
      "conf_low": 2.29637,
      "estimate": 2.79651,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.00664,
      "conf_low": 0.245917,
      "estimate": 0.641454,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.14346,
      "conf_low": 2.58925,
      "estimate": 3.56645,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.59661,
      "conf_low": 2.64676,
      "estimate": 3.07602,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.25824,
      "conf_low": 0.563567,
      "estimate": 0.943677,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.75812,
      "conf_low": 1.68282,
      "estimate": 2.2398,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.67126,
      "conf_low": 2.91506,
      "estimate": 3.28872,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.01402,
      "conf_low": 0.315639,
      "estimate": 0.672609,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.75437,
      "conf_low": 2.23024,
      "estimate": 2.92168,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.70581,
      "conf_low": 2.95366,
      "estimate": 3.33314,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.07481,
      "conf_low": 0.28012,
      "estimate": 0.690468,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.99226,
      "conf_low": 3.11814,
      "estimate": 4.09032,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.51987,
      "conf_low": 3.35937,
      "estimate": 3.92181,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.23871,
      "conf_low": 1.41965,
      "estimate": 1.8279,
      "n_units": 3102,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.64539,
      "conf_low": 2.33845,
      "estimate": 3.01883,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2000 to 2008",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.30373,
      "conf_low": 2.2473,
      "estimate": 2.7465,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "period": "2012 to 2016",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.94481,
      "conf_low": 1.25756,
      "estimate": 1.60107,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "period": "2016 to 2024",
      "version": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal"
    }
  ],
  "id": "step_sensitivity",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The 2000 and 2024 college share versions use each county's college share in that year for every election, so they leave out counties without a value in that year."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "facet": "period",
    "facetColumns": 3,
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "legend": false,
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "reference": 0,
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -1,
      6
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 1,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Change in the slope (points of Democratic share per 10 points of college share)",
    "y": "version"
  },
  "subtitle": "Change in the slope of the county Democratic share on county college share between elections, six versions of the slope, vote-weighted and county-equal",
  "title": "Vote-weighted, the slope rose from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 in all six versions, and from 2016 to 2024 it changed by {fact:adj_step_min_w} to {fact:adj_step_max_w} in the five adjusted versions and by {fact:step_w_1624} with college share alone",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "Counting each county once, the 2016 to 2024 change is {fact:step_u_1624} for college share alone and between {fact:adj_step_min_u} and {fact:adj_step_max_u} in the five adjusted versions. Each dot is the change in the slope between two elections in one version of the slope, with a 95% interval from resampling states; the open reference line marks no change.",
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the change in the slope from 2016 to 2024 is above zero in all six versions, and the rises from 2000 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2016 are above zero in all six"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}