{
  "alt": "Line chart of four slopes of the Democratic share on county college share, 2000 to 2024, vote-weighted: college share alone, race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, and both. All four rise over the period. In 2000 they range from {fact:fer_w_2000} to {fact:slope_w_2000}, and in 2024 from {fact:fer_w_2024} to {fact:slope_w_2024}. The county-equal view shows the same rise from a lower start.",
  "caption": "With state and race held fixed the slope is {fact:fer_w_2000} in 2000, an interval that includes zero, and {fact:fer_w_2024} in 2024, against {fact:slope_w_2000} and {fact:slope_w_2024} for college share alone. Vote-weighted, race held fixed lowers the slope by {fact:red_race_w_2000} in 2000 and {fact:red_race_w_2024} in 2024, and the difference between those reductions, {fact:reddiff_race_w}, has an interval that includes zero. Each line is the slope of the county Democratic share on county college share per {fact:x_unit} points; race and ethnicity held fixed means the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents are in the regression, and within states means each state has its own baseline. Bands, drawn for two lines, are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 5.14341,
      "conf_low": 2.4521,
      "estimate": 3.86659,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.38472,
      "conf_low": 3.90178,
      "estimate": 5.18169,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.02222,
      "conf_low": 4.72923,
      "estimate": 5.94179,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.0035,
      "conf_low": 4.88967,
      "estimate": 5.99411,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2616,
      "conf_low": 8.22983,
      "estimate": 9.2304,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.3029,
      "conf_low": 8.51665,
      "estimate": 9.34542,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.115,
      "conf_low": 8.41973,
      "estimate": 9.2158,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.39109,
      "conf_low": -0.119787,
      "estimate": 2.03685,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.72433,
      "conf_low": 1.70583,
      "estimate": 3.46444,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.30095,
      "conf_low": 2.82482,
      "estimate": 4.13122,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.11007,
      "conf_low": 2.6241,
      "estimate": 3.96196,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.31778,
      "conf_low": 6.26211,
      "estimate": 7.2016,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.94306,
      "conf_low": 6.99746,
      "estimate": 7.84755,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.93963,
      "conf_low": 7.03215,
      "estimate": 7.84206,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.62144,
      "conf_low": 1.23745,
      "estimate": 2.40596,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.17796,
      "conf_low": 2.82735,
      "estimate": 3.97304,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.49104,
      "conf_low": 3.55264,
      "estimate": 4.54897,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.36784,
      "conf_low": 3.48974,
      "estimate": 4.4454,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.85487,
      "conf_low": 7.052,
      "estimate": 7.90379,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.12644,
      "conf_low": 7.42796,
      "estimate": 8.18515,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.08792,
      "conf_low": 7.58364,
      "estimate": 8.25834,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.55092,
      "conf_low": -0.69766,
      "estimate": 0.495927,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.2107,
      "conf_low": 0.969303,
      "estimate": 2.15228,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.16633,
      "conf_low": 2.19059,
      "estimate": 3.16701,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.76553,
      "conf_low": 1.87995,
      "estimate": 2.79551,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.39729,
      "conf_low": 5.63667,
      "estimate": 6.43722,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.23434,
      "conf_low": 6.59351,
      "estimate": 7.35146,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.35012,
      "conf_low": 6.86536,
      "estimate": 7.55077,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.14341,
      "conf_low": 2.4521,
      "estimate": 3.86659,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.7958,
      "conf_low": 2.54908,
      "estimate": 3.80676,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.42377,
      "conf_low": 3.84367,
      "estimate": 5.14103,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.69772,
      "conf_low": 3.62993,
      "estimate": 4.75536,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.2728,
      "conf_low": 4.799,
      "estimate": 6.03839,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.27092,
      "conf_low": 4.36062,
      "estimate": 5.38887,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.43517,
      "conf_low": 5.03058,
      "estimate": 6.20796,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.44516,
      "conf_low": 4.57673,
      "estimate": 5.57547,
      "n_units": 3104,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.6067,
      "conf_low": 8.95617,
      "estimate": 10.1858,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.79476,
      "conf_low": 7.80338,
      "estimate": 8.77372,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.1115,
      "conf_low": 9.64735,
      "estimate": 10.7886,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.118,
      "conf_low": 8.34795,
      "estimate": 9.16565,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.2013,
      "conf_low": 9.71499,
      "estimate": 10.8571,
      "n_units": 3102,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.115,
      "conf_low": 8.41973,
      "estimate": 9.2158,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.98614,
      "conf_low": 0.0885428,
      "estimate": 1.56162,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.58134,
      "conf_low": 1.96473,
      "estimate": 3.29591,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.14976,
      "conf_low": 4.06103,
      "estimate": 5.11495,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.35556,
      "conf_low": 3.92712,
      "estimate": 5.15391,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.36042,
      "conf_low": 6.48388,
      "estimate": 7.95041,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.0346,
      "conf_low": 7.31106,
      "estimate": 8.72743,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.78965,
      "conf_low": 7.23635,
      "estimate": 8.59187,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "College share alone",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.28156,
      "conf_low": -1.50593,
      "estimate": 0.813635,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.09566,
      "conf_low": 0.763279,
      "estimate": 2.67274,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.63277,
      "conf_low": 3.01452,
      "estimate": 4.38008,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.66058,
      "conf_low": 3.10073,
      "estimate": 4.439,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.60105,
      "conf_low": 6.43142,
      "estimate": 7.51502,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.47578,
      "conf_low": 7.5046,
      "estimate": 8.51098,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.34642,
      "conf_low": 7.49497,
      "estimate": 8.4587,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.5557,
      "conf_low": -0.203186,
      "estimate": 1.19156,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.72751,
      "conf_low": 1.27684,
      "estimate": 2.46791,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.52918,
      "conf_low": 2.38869,
      "estimate": 3.43136,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.45507,
      "conf_low": 2.23722,
      "estimate": 3.32212,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.83216,
      "conf_low": 5.41707,
      "estimate": 6.61085,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.39919,
      "conf_low": 6.30352,
      "estimate": 7.32812,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.31508,
      "conf_low": 6.24751,
      "estimate": 7.28346,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Within states",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.12775,
      "conf_low": -0.716247,
      "estimate": 0.730911,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.78427,
      "conf_low": 0.916542,
      "estimate": 2.30153,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.9367,
      "conf_low": 2.52859,
      "estimate": 3.65259,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.81402,
      "conf_low": 2.47676,
      "estimate": 3.58359,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.06733,
      "conf_low": 5.91215,
      "estimate": 6.91673,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.71914,
      "conf_low": 6.91372,
      "estimate": 7.76932,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.48817,
      "conf_low": 6.78801,
      "estimate": 7.6072,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.98614,
      "conf_low": 0.0885428,
      "estimate": 1.56162,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.13234,
      "conf_low": -0.177695,
      "estimate": 1.00706,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.75243,
      "conf_low": 2.0329,
      "estimate": 3.4368,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.47679,
      "conf_low": 1.19391,
      "estimate": 2.38785,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.7491,
      "conf_low": 4.53795,
      "estimate": 5.65194,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.99572,
      "conf_low": 3.03644,
      "estimate": 4.02589,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.3391,
      "conf_low": 4.7302,
      "estimate": 6.06936,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.37017,
      "conf_low": 3.02287,
      "estimate": 4.2443,
      "n_units": 3104,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4635,
      "conf_low": 8.40758,
      "estimate": 9.99117,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.40635,
      "conf_low": 5.51385,
      "estimate": 6.9908,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.8966,
      "conf_low": 10.1395,
      "estimate": 11.5521,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.60943,
      "conf_low": 6.8717,
      "estimate": 8.30268,
      "n_units": 3105,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.1038,
      "conf_low": 10.5089,
      "estimate": 11.8191,
      "n_units": 3102,
      "specification": "2000 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.78965,
      "conf_low": 7.23635,
      "estimate": 8.59187,
      "n_units": 3103,
      "specification": "2024 college share held fixed",
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "specifications",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and county demographics (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years); weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "bandSeries": [
      "College share alone",
      "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed"
    ],
    "colors": {
      "College share alone": "total",
      "Race and ethnicity held fixed": "cat1",
      "Within states": "cat4",
      "Within states, race and ethnicity held fixed": "cat7"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "specification",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      2000,
      2024
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -2,
      12
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "yLabel": "Points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share"
  },
  "subtitle": "Slope of the county Democratic share on county college share alone, with race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, and within states with race and ethnicity held fixed, 2000 to 2024",
  "title": "Vote-weighted, the slope with state and race held fixed went from {fact:fer_w_2000} in 2000 to {fact:fer_w_2024} in 2024",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
      },
      "id": "votes",
      "label": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "caption": "With race and ethnicity held fixed the county-equal slope is {fact:race_u_2000} in 2000, an interval that includes zero, and {fact:race_u_2024} in 2024, close to the slope of college share alone, {fact:slope_u_2024}. Each line is the slope of the county Democratic share on county college share per {fact:x_unit} points; race and ethnicity held fixed means the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents are in the regression, and within states means each state has its own baseline. Bands, drawn for two lines, are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
      "filter": {
        "weighting": "County-equal"
      },
      "id": "equal",
      "label": "County-equal",
      "title": "Counting each county once, the slope with state and race held fixed went from {fact:fer_u_2000} in 2000 to {fact:fer_u_2024} in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}