{
  "alt": "County map of the United States with a slider over the seven presidential elections of 2000 to 2024, coloring each county by whether its college share is above the median of that election's counties and whether Democrats won a majority of its two-party vote. The class of counties at or below the median with a Democratic majority falls from {fact:n_lod_2000} in 2000 to {fact:n_lod_2024} in 2024 and by 2024 lies mostly in the South. The class of counties at or below the median with a Republican majority grows from {fact:n_lor_2000} to {fact:n_lor_2024}. The data table lists the ten largest counties in the shrinking class in each election.",
  "caption": "The two classes where college share and the majority line up, above the median and Democratic or at or below it and Republican, were {fact:aligned_2000} of counties in 2000 and {fact:aligned_2024} in 2024. The class that shrank most is the lower left, at or below the median and Democratic, from {fact:n_lod_2000} counties to {fact:n_lod_2024}, while the above-median Democratic class held at {fact:n_hid_2000} and {fact:n_hid_2024}. The median county college share is {fact:med_ba_2000} in 2000 and {fact:med_ba_2024} in 2024, so the cut rises with college share across counties. The data table lists the ten largest counties in the shrinking class in each election.",
  "data": [
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.1,
      "county": "Pasco, FL",
      "dem_share": 50.4,
      "fips": "12101",
      "votes": 138183,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.9,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 61.6,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 99691,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.5,
      "county": "Trumbull, OH",
      "dem_share": 62.5,
      "fips": "39155",
      "votes": 92297,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.1,
      "county": "Jefferson, MO",
      "dem_share": 51.2,
      "fips": "29099",
      "votes": 75382,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.9,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 55.8,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 67893,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.7,
      "county": "Hernando, FL",
      "dem_share": 51.6,
      "fips": "12053",
      "votes": 63306,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.4,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "dem_share": 54.4,
      "fips": "48061",
      "votes": 61014,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.3,
      "county": "Monroe, MI",
      "dem_share": 52.2,
      "fips": "26115",
      "votes": 60495,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.7,
      "county": "Cambria, PA",
      "dem_share": 52,
      "fips": "42021",
      "votes": 58309,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.2,
      "county": "Bay, MI",
      "dem_share": 56.1,
      "fips": "26017",
      "votes": 50401,
      "year": "2000"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 55,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 113300,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.2,
      "county": "Trumbull, OH",
      "dem_share": 61.9,
      "fips": "39155",
      "votes": 107650,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 55.6,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 79584,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.5,
      "county": "Fayette, PA",
      "dem_share": 53.8,
      "fips": "42051",
      "votes": 54165,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.4,
      "county": "Wyandotte, KS",
      "dem_share": 66.1,
      "fips": "20209",
      "votes": 52842,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.7,
      "county": "Cumberland, NJ",
      "dem_share": 53.4,
      "fips": "34011",
      "votes": 52237,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 11.8,
      "county": "Ashtabula, OH",
      "dem_share": 53.4,
      "fips": "39007",
      "votes": 45098,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.1,
      "county": "Laporte, IN",
      "dem_share": 50.2,
      "fips": "18091",
      "votes": 42030,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.1,
      "county": "Cowlitz, WA",
      "dem_share": 51.6,
      "fips": "53015",
      "votes": 41806,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.1,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "dem_share": 57.1,
      "fips": "48479",
      "votes": 41407,
      "year": "2004"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.8,
      "county": "Stanislaus, CA",
      "dem_share": 50.9,
      "fips": "06099",
      "votes": 157776,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.1,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 69.5,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 129929,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16,
      "county": "Trumbull, OH",
      "dem_share": 61.5,
      "fips": "39155",
      "votes": 104309,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16,
      "county": "Jefferson, MO",
      "dem_share": 51.3,
      "fips": "29099",
      "votes": 104271,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.2,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 64.9,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 82966,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.9,
      "county": "St. Clair, MI",
      "dem_share": 51.4,
      "fips": "26147",
      "votes": 79213,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.6,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "dem_share": 64.5,
      "fips": "48061",
      "votes": 75151,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 12.2,
      "county": "Merced, CA",
      "dem_share": 54.2,
      "fips": "06047",
      "votes": 62735,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.6,
      "county": "Cumberland, NJ",
      "dem_share": 61,
      "fips": "34011",
      "votes": 57279,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.5,
      "county": "Madison, IN",
      "dem_share": 53.3,
      "fips": "18095",
      "votes": 56555,
      "year": "2008"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.4,
      "county": "Stanislaus, CA",
      "dem_share": 51.4,
      "fips": "06099",
      "votes": 151183,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.5,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 71.1,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 137834,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.2,
      "county": "Trumbull, OH",
      "dem_share": 61.7,
      "fips": "39155",
      "votes": 99951,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.8,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "dem_share": 65.7,
      "fips": "48061",
      "votes": 76074,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.4,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 59,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 75320,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.1,
      "county": "Merced, CA",
      "dem_share": 54.5,
      "fips": "06047",
      "votes": 60586,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.2,
      "county": "Cumberland, NJ",
      "dem_share": 62.2,
      "fips": "34011",
      "votes": 54713,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.8,
      "county": "Wyandotte, KS",
      "dem_share": 68.9,
      "fips": "20209",
      "votes": 49798,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.2,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "dem_share": 77.2,
      "fips": "48479",
      "votes": 48675,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17,
      "county": "Oswego, NY",
      "dem_share": 54.1,
      "fips": "36075",
      "votes": 43495,
      "year": "2012"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 18.7,
      "county": "San Joaquin, CA",
      "dem_share": 56.8,
      "fips": "06077",
      "votes": 191036,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 18.4,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 71,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 167451,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.1,
      "county": "Stanislaus, CA",
      "dem_share": 50.7,
      "fips": "06099",
      "votes": 152594,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 19.1,
      "county": "Clayton, GA",
      "dem_share": 86.1,
      "fips": "13063",
      "votes": 90865,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.5,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "dem_share": 66.8,
      "fips": "48061",
      "votes": 88874,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 18.9,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 50.8,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 73431,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.9,
      "county": "Merced, CA",
      "dem_share": 55.3,
      "fips": "06047",
      "votes": 59706,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 18.1,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "dem_share": 76.6,
      "fips": "48479",
      "votes": 55254,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.4,
      "county": "Cumberland, NJ",
      "dem_share": 53.2,
      "fips": "34011",
      "votes": 52224,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.3,
      "county": "Wyandotte, KS",
      "dem_share": 65.4,
      "fips": "20209",
      "votes": 44866,
      "year": "2016"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 21,
      "county": "San Joaquin, CA",
      "dem_share": 57.1,
      "fips": "06077",
      "votes": 282235,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20,
      "county": "Hidalgo, TX",
      "dem_share": 58.6,
      "fips": "48215",
      "votes": 218726,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 18.7,
      "county": "Stanislaus, CA",
      "dem_share": 50.4,
      "fips": "06099",
      "votes": 209986,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.1,
      "county": "Cameron, TX",
      "dem_share": 56.6,
      "fips": "48061",
      "votes": 113095,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.8,
      "county": "Clayton, GA",
      "dem_share": 85.8,
      "fips": "13063",
      "votes": 111277,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.5,
      "county": "Muskegon, MI",
      "dem_share": 50.3,
      "fips": "26121",
      "votes": 90776,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 14.7,
      "county": "Merced, CA",
      "dem_share": 55.4,
      "fips": "06047",
      "votes": 88388,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.1,
      "county": "Webb, TX",
      "dem_share": 61.8,
      "fips": "48479",
      "votes": 67718,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.8,
      "county": "Cumberland, NJ",
      "dem_share": 53.1,
      "fips": "34011",
      "votes": 61694,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 15.7,
      "county": "Imperial, CA",
      "dem_share": 62.5,
      "fips": "06025",
      "votes": 55525,
      "year": "2020"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 21.2,
      "county": "Wyandotte, KS",
      "dem_share": 62.1,
      "fips": "20209",
      "votes": 49805,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 21.7,
      "county": "Wilson, NC",
      "dem_share": 50.2,
      "fips": "37195",
      "votes": 39659,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 19.4,
      "county": "Orangeburg, SC",
      "dem_share": 62.4,
      "fips": "45075",
      "votes": 36582,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.6,
      "county": "Apache, AZ",
      "dem_share": 59.6,
      "fips": "04001",
      "votes": 31667,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 13.3,
      "county": "McKinley, NM",
      "dem_share": 62.7,
      "fips": "35031",
      "votes": 25075,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 17.5,
      "county": "Edgecombe, NC",
      "dem_share": 61.4,
      "fips": "37065",
      "votes": 24255,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 16.1,
      "county": "Halifax, NC",
      "dem_share": 58.9,
      "fips": "37083",
      "votes": 23792,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.5,
      "county": "Liberty, GA",
      "dem_share": 58.8,
      "fips": "13179",
      "votes": 22900,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 21.3,
      "county": "Gadsden, FL",
      "dem_share": 65.5,
      "fips": "12039",
      "votes": 21698,
      "year": "2024"
    },
    {
      "class": "loD",
      "college_share": 20.1,
      "county": "Jefferson, AR",
      "dem_share": 60.2,
      "fips": "05069",
      "votes": 21270,
      "year": "2024"
    }
  ],
  "id": "diploma_map",
  "notes": [
    "Election returns are full counts of votes, so the map draws no intervals. A county's class depends on the national result of the election as well as on its own vote. Counties are drawn on 2020 boundaries and matched on FIPS code; a county with no return or no college share in an election draws as no data. Kansas City's votes, a separate unit in the 2024 returns, are added to Jackson County, Missouri. The data table lists ten counties for each election, not the whole map."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 2000-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, not weighted; college share from the county demographics panel (decennial census and American Community Survey estimates interpolated to election years)",
  "spec": {
    "fips": "fips",
    "frame": "year",
    "frames": [
      "2000",
      "2004",
      "2008",
      "2012",
      "2016",
      "2020",
      "2024"
    ],
    "legendLabel": "College share relative to the median county, and winner",
    "payload": "diploma_classes.json",
    "scale": {
      "categories": [
        {
          "color": "dem",
          "label": "Above the median college share, Democratic majority",
          "value": "hiD"
        },
        {
          "color": "cat2",
          "label": "Above the median college share, Republican majority",
          "value": "hiR"
        },
        {
          "color": "cat4",
          "label": "At or below the median college share, Democratic majority",
          "value": "loD"
        },
        {
          "color": "rep",
          "label": "At or below the median college share, Republican majority",
          "value": "loR"
        }
      ],
      "type": "categorical"
    },
    "tooltipKeys": [
      "college_share",
      "dem_share"
    ],
    "tooltipLabels": {
      "college_share": "College share (%)",
      "dem_share": "Democratic share of two-party vote (%)"
    },
    "value": "class"
  },
  "subtitle": "Each county by whether its college share is above the median of that election's counties and whether Democrats won a majority of its two-party vote, 2000 to 2024, Alaska excluded",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "key": "county",
        "label": "County"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "college_share",
        "label": "College share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "dem_share",
        "label": "Democratic share of two-party vote (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "votes",
        "label": "Two-party votes"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority fell from {fact:n_lod_2000} in 2000 to {fact:n_lod_2024} in 2024",
  "type": "county-map",
  "width": "full"
}