{
  "alt": "Line chart of the correlation between a county's 2000 college share and its Democratic two-party share in the presidential elections of 1972 to 2024. The county-equal line is above zero in 1972, below zero in the point estimates from 1976 to 1996 and rises from {fact:back_u_2000} in 2000 to {fact:back_u_2024} in 2024. The vote-weighted line is below zero in the point estimates for 1976 and 1980, between {fact:back_min_w} and {fact:back_max_w} from 1984 to 1996 in the point estimates, and rises to {fact:back_w_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The vote-weighted correlation is {fact:back_w_1972} in 1972, {fact:back_w_1976} in 1976 and {fact:back_w_1980} in 1980 and between {fact:back_min_w} and {fact:back_max_w} from 1984 to 1996 in the point estimates, and {fact:back_w_2000} in 2000. County college share is measured in 2000 for every election here, so before 2000 the chart shows how counties that ranked high on college share in 2000 voted, and not the education of their residents at the time. The solid line counts counties by their two-party votes and the dashed line counts each county once; bands are 95% intervals from resampling states.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 0.339738,
      "conf_low": 0.123191,
      "estimate": 0.242594,
      "n_units": 3107,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.0937274,
      "conf_low": -0.340347,
      "estimate": -0.213091,
      "n_units": 3110,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0467497,
      "conf_low": -0.143054,
      "estimate": -0.04839,
      "n_units": 3110,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.198384,
      "conf_low": -0.0146633,
      "estimate": 0.0999829,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.196542,
      "conf_low": -0.0360322,
      "estimate": 0.087181,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.246465,
      "conf_low": 0.00486082,
      "estimate": 0.133047,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.247143,
      "conf_low": 0.0272268,
      "estimate": 0.14742,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.365013,
      "conf_low": 0.189,
      "estimate": 0.281836,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.439076,
      "conf_low": 0.282964,
      "estimate": 0.362815,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.476792,
      "conf_low": 0.335886,
      "estimate": 0.405632,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.458453,
      "conf_low": 0.319255,
      "estimate": 0.387355,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.616187,
      "conf_low": 0.496642,
      "estimate": 0.550521,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.672901,
      "conf_low": 0.567661,
      "estimate": 0.612227,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.693508,
      "conf_low": 0.595824,
      "estimate": 0.640631,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.178262,
      "conf_low": 0.0280362,
      "estimate": 0.099357,
      "n_units": 3107,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.269554,
      "conf_low": -0.386607,
      "estimate": -0.33248,
      "n_units": 3110,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.101574,
      "conf_low": -0.269801,
      "estimate": -0.198289,
      "n_units": 3110,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.0162595,
      "conf_low": -0.179596,
      "estimate": -0.104671,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.000172195,
      "conf_low": -0.167752,
      "estimate": -0.0873025,
      "n_units": 3112,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.00874025,
      "conf_low": -0.178746,
      "estimate": -0.0912416,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0282097,
      "conf_low": -0.151901,
      "estimate": -0.0660697,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.196374,
      "conf_low": 0.00529164,
      "estimate": 0.0993572,
      "n_units": 3114,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.304643,
      "conf_low": 0.1185,
      "estimate": 0.21146,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.399175,
      "conf_low": 0.231378,
      "estimate": 0.313252,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.404436,
      "conf_low": 0.225427,
      "estimate": 0.3135,
      "n_units": 3113,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.579247,
      "conf_low": 0.382131,
      "estimate": 0.482734,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.639315,
      "conf_low": 0.462742,
      "estimate": 0.554142,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.666325,
      "conf_low": 0.49378,
      "estimate": 0.582624,
      "n_units": 3111,
      "weighting": "County-equal",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "before_2000",
  "notes": [
    "Intervals resample whole states; see Methods. The data hold no county college share before 2000; the 2000 value is applied to earlier elections as a ranking of counties.",
    "Counties are matched on FIPS code to the 2000 census; a county with no 2000 value is left out of that election, which removes under one percent of two-party votes before 2000."
  ],
  "source": "County presidential returns, 1972-2024 (Algara and Amlani; MIT Election Data and Science Lab), full counts of votes, and the 2000 census county college share; weighted by two-party votes in the election or county-equal, as stated",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      },
      {
        "label": "College share is from 2000 on",
        "type": "x-rule",
        "x": 2000
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "County-equal": "highlight",
      "Vote-weighted": "total"
    },
    "dashed": [
      "County-equal"
    ],
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n_units",
    "series": "weighting",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1972,
      2024
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Presidential election",
    "xTicks": "data",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -0.6,
      0.8
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Correlation of 2000 college share with the Democratic share"
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation of a county's share of residents with a bachelor's degree or more in 2000 with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in each presidential election, 1972 to 2024",
  "title": "Counting each county once, the correlation with 2000 college share was positive in 1972, negative in the point estimates from 1976 to 1996 and positive from 2000",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}