{
  "adj_step_max_u": {
    "display": "+1.8",
    "estimand": "highest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 1.8279,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "adj_step_max_w": {
    "display": "+1.1",
    "estimand": "highest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 1.11356,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "adj_step_min_u": {
    "display": "+0.7",
    "estimand": "lowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.672609,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "adj_step_min_w": {
    "display": "+0.4",
    "estimand": "lowest of the 2016 to 2024 changes in the slope across five adjusted versions (race and ethnicity held fixed, within states, both, 2000 college share held fixed, 2024 college share held fixed)",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.354559,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "age_floor": {
    "display": "25",
    "estimand": "lower age limit of the college share",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "residents counted in the college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "years of age",
    "value": 25,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aligned_2000": {
    "display": "50.8%",
    "estimand": "share of counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties",
    "value": 50.8028,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aligned_2024": {
    "display": "58.4%",
    "estimand": "share of counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of counties",
    "value": 58.3629,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aligned_votes_2000": {
    "display": "55.1%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in the counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes",
    "value": 55.1434,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "aligned_votes_2024": {
    "display": "60.8%",
    "estimand": "share of two-party votes cast in the counties that are above the median college share with a Democratic majority or at or below it with a Republican majority",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes",
    "value": 60.8306,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "back_max_u": {
    "display": "−0.07",
    "estimand": "highest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 1996",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.0660697,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_max_w": {
    "display": "+0.15",
    "estimand": "highest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 1996",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.14742,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_min_u": {
    "display": "−0.10",
    "estimand": "lowest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 1996",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.104671,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_min_w": {
    "display": "+0.09",
    "estimand": "lowest of the point estimates of the correlation across the elections of 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996",
    "note": "",
    "period": "1984 to 1996",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.087181,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_u_1972": {
    "ci": [
      0.03,
      0.18
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3107,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1972",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.099357,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_u_1976": {
    "ci": [
      -0.39,
      -0.27
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.33",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1976",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.33248,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_u_1980": {
    "ci": [
      -0.27,
      -0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.20",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1980",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.198289,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.01,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.0993572,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.49,
      0.67
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.58",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.582624,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "back_w_1972": {
    "ci": [
      0.12,
      0.34
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.24",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3107,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1972",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.242594,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_1976": {
    "ci": [
      -0.34,
      -0.09
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.21",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1976",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.213091,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_1980": {
    "ci": [
      -0.14,
      0.05
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.05",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3110,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "1980",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": -0.04839,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.19,
      0.37
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.28",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.281836,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_2012": {
    "ci": [
      0.32,
      0.46
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.39",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.387355,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_2016": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      0.62
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.55",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.550521,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "back_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.6,
      0.69
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.64",
    "estimand": "correlation of the county's 2000 college share with its Democratic share of the two-party vote in the election",
    "n": 3111,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and a 2000 college share, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.640631,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "big_cut": {
    "display": "250,000",
    "estimand": "definition of a large county",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "threshold for a large county",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes in the election",
    "value": 250000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "black_cut": {
    "display": "25%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "non-Hispanic Black share cut-off",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
    "value": 25,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "boot_reps": {
    "display": "2,000",
    "estimand": "number of bootstrap replicates",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "bootstrap over states",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "replicates",
    "value": 2000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "corr_step_w_1624": {
    "ci": [
      0.07,
      0.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.09",
    "estimand": "change in the correlation of college share with the Democratic share, 2024 minus 2016",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.0858713,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "corr_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.01,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.10",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.0993572,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "corr_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.45,
      0.66
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.56",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.558693,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "corr_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.19,
      0.37
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.28",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.281836,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "corr_w_2012": {
    "ci": [
      0.35,
      0.48
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.42",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.415066,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "corr_w_2016": {
    "ci": [
      0.53,
      0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.58",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.577163,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "corr_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.62,
      0.71
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.66",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.663034,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fe_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      2.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.2",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 1.19156,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "fe_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      6.2,
      8.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.3",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 7.28346,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "fe_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      1.2,
      3.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.4",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 2.40596,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fe_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      7.6,
      9.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "8.3",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 8.25834,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fer_step_w_0024": {
    "ci": [
      6.1,
      8.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+7.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 7.05485,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fer_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      2.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.730911,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "fer_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      6.8,
      8.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.6",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 7.6072,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "fer_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.7,
      1.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.5",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.495927,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fer_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      6.9,
      8.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.6",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share within states with the four race and ethnicity shares held fixed",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 7.55077,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "fx00_step_w_1216": {
    "ci": [
      3.5,
      4.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+4.0",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on the 2000 college share of the county, held fixed across elections, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 3.97787,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "label_cut": {
    "display": "300,000",
    "estimand": "definition of the named counties",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "threshold for naming a county in the scatter figure",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "two-party votes in 2024",
    "value": 300000,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_black25_2024": {
    "display": "82%",
    "estimand": "share of the counties whose non-Hispanic Black share is 25 percent or more",
    "n": 93,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of counties",
    "value": 81.7204,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_ms_2024": {
    "display": "17",
    "estimand": "count of the counties in Mississippi",
    "n": 93,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 17,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_n_2000": {
    "display": "325",
    "estimand": "count of counties",
    "n": 325,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 325,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_south_2024": {
    "display": "86%",
    "estimand": "share of the counties in the 17 Census Bureau South states and the District of Columbia",
    "n": 93,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of counties",
    "value": 86.0215,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_white_majority_2000": {
    "display": "66%",
    "estimand": "share of the counties whose non-Hispanic white share is 50 percent or more",
    "n": 325,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of counties",
    "value": 65.5385,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_wm_matched": {
    "display": "212",
    "estimand": "count of the counties that have 2024 returns and characteristics",
    "n": 213,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 and 2024",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority and a non-Hispanic white share of 50 percent or more in 2000, with a 2024 return",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 212,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "lod_wm_rep_2024": {
    "display": "208",
    "estimand": "count of the counties with a Republican majority in 2024",
    "n": 213,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 and 2024",
    "population": "counties at or below the median college share with a Democratic majority and a non-Hispanic white share of 50 percent or more in 2000",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 208,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "mean_ds_w_2000": {
    "display": "50.3%",
    "estimand": "mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote (the pooled share of the counties when vote-weighted)",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 50.314,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "mean_ds_w_2024": {
    "display": "49.2%",
    "estimand": "mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote (the pooled share of the counties when vote-weighted)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 49.1672,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "med_ba_2000": {
    "display": "14.5%",
    "estimand": "median county share with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 14.4766,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "med_ba_2024": {
    "display": "22.1%",
    "estimand": "median county share with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 22.1241,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_big_2000": {
    "display": "76",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the size class",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 76,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_big_2024": {
    "display": "135",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the size class",
    "n": 135,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 135,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_counties_2000": {
    "display": "3,114",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the estimates",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3114,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_counties_2024": {
    "display": "3,103",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the estimates",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3103,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_hid_2000": {
    "display": "350",
    "estimand": "count of counties above the median college share, Democratic majority",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 350,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_hid_2024": {
    "display": "352",
    "estimand": "count of counties above the median college share, Democratic majority",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 352,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_lod_2000": {
    "display": "325",
    "estimand": "count of counties at or below the median college share, Democratic majority",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 325,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_lod_2024": {
    "display": "93",
    "estimand": "count of counties at or below the median college share, Democratic majority",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 93,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_lor_2000": {
    "display": "1,232",
    "estimand": "count of counties at or below the median college share, Republican majority",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 1232,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_lor_2024": {
    "display": "1,459",
    "estimand": "count of counties at or below the median college share, Republican majority",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 1459,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_no_comp_2024": {
    "display": "9",
    "estimand": "counties with returns and no county characteristics",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with 2024 returns",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 9,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_returns_2024": {
    "display": "3,112",
    "estimand": "count of counties with returns",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with two-party votes, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 3112,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_states_only": {
    "display": "49",
    "estimand": "count of states, not counting the District of Columbia",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "states with counties in these data, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 49,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "n_years": {
    "display": "7",
    "estimand": "count of elections",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "elections with county college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "presidential elections",
    "value": 7,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "q1_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      42.1,
      46.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "44.0%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 44.0281,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q1_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      23,
      30.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "26.3%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 26.3212,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q1_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      42.2,
      45.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "43.7%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 43.7477,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "q1_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      23.4,
      29.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "26.4%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 26.3591,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "q2_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      24.2,
      29.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "26.5%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 620,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 2 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 26.4542,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q3_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      24.8,
      30.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "27.4%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 3 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 27.4279,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q4_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      34.9,
      41.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "37.9%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 4 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 37.9051,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q4_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      29,
      35.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "32.1%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 620,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 4 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 32.051,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q5_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      41.7,
      47.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "44.6%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 44.6305,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q5_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      45.3,
      51.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "48.3%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 48.2839,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "q5_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      49.4,
      56
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "53.0%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 53.0247,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "q5_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      53.2,
      59
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "56.1%",
    "estimand": "Democratic share of the two-party vote in a fifth of counties ranked by college share in that election",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share, from least to most",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 56.1278,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qba1_2000": {
    "display": "9.0%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 9.03363,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qba1_2024": {
    "display": "13.8%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 of 5 by college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 13.7957,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qba5_2000": {
    "display": "29.1%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth",
    "n": 623,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 29.0654,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qba5_2024": {
    "display": "41.2%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more in the fifth",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 of 5 by college share",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 41.2044,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qchg1_w": {
    "ci": [
      -20.7,
      -14
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−17.4",
    "estimand": "change in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 by college share in each election",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change",
    "value": -17.3886,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qchg5_w": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      5.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.1",
    "estimand": "change in the Democratic share of a fifth of counties ranked by college share in each election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 by college share in each election",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change",
    "value": 3.10302,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qgap_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -2.6,
      3.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.6",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth",
    "value": 0.602406,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qgap_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      17.6,
      26
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "22.0",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth",
    "value": 21.9626,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qgap_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      5.3,
      12.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "9.3",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth",
    "value": 9.27705,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qgap_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      26.4,
      33
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "29.8",
    "estimand": "Democratic share in the fifth of counties with the highest college share minus that in the fifth with the lowest",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, most minus least educated fifth",
    "value": 29.7687,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qgapchg_u": {
    "ci": [
      17.9,
      24.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+21.4",
    "estimand": "change in the most-minus-least-educated fifth gap",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change in the gap",
    "value": 21.3602,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "qgapchg_w": {
    "ci": [
      16.7,
      24.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+20.5",
    "estimand": "change in the most-minus-least-educated fifth gap",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change in the gap",
    "value": 20.4916,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "qvotes1_2024": {
    "display": "3.6%",
    "estimand": "share of the two-party votes cast in the fifth",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 1 by college share",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties",
    "value": 3.57869,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "qvotes5_2024": {
    "display": "64.4%",
    "estimand": "share of the two-party votes cast in the fifth",
    "n": 621,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in fifth 5 by college share",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties",
    "value": 64.4195,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "r_ba_0024": {
    "display": "+0.94",
    "estimand": "correlation across counties of college share in 2000 with college share in 2024",
    "n": 3102,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 and 2024",
    "population": "counties with college share in both 2000 and 2024",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.935403,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "race_step_u_0024": {
    "ci": [
      6.5,
      9.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+7.6",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 7.64506,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "race_step_u_1216": {
    "ci": [
      2.6,
      3.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 3.07602,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "race_step_w_0024": {
    "ci": [
      4.7,
      8.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+5.8",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 5.80521,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "race_step_w_1216": {
    "ci": [
      2.8,
      3.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.2",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 3.23963,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "race_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -1.5,
      2.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.8",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.813635,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "race_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      7.5,
      9.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "8.5",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 8.4587,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "race_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.1,
      3.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.0",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 2.03685,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "race_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      7,
      8.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.8",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 7.84206,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "red_fe_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      2.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.5",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects))",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 1.46063,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "red_fe_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      1.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.0",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects))",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 0.957451,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "red_race_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      2.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 0.747983,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "red_race_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -1,
      1.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.1",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 0.133173,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "red_race_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.8,
      3.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.8",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 1.82973,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "red_race_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.2,
      2.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.4",
    "estimand": "slope of college share alone minus the slope of the specification (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, reduction",
    "value": 1.37374,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "reddiff_fe_w": {
    "ci": [
      -1.2,
      0.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.5",
    "estimand": "reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share within states (state fixed effects))",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction",
    "value": -0.503177,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "reddiff_race_u": {
    "ci": [
      -2.2,
      0
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.6",
    "estimand": "reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction",
    "value": -0.61481,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "reddiff_race_w": {
    "ci": [
      -2.3,
      0.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.5",
    "estimand": "reduction in the slope in 2024 minus the reduction in 2000 (slope of the Democratic share on college share with the non-Hispanic white, Black, Hispanic and Asian shares of residents held fixed)",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change in the reduction",
    "value": -0.455996,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sd_ba_u_2024": {
    "display": "10.3",
    "estimand": "standard deviation of county college share about its mean",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of college share",
    "value": 10.275,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "sd_ba_w_2016": {
    "display": "11.2",
    "estimand": "standard deviation of county college share about its mean",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of college share",
    "value": 11.223,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sd_ba_w_2024": {
    "display": "11.8",
    "estimand": "standard deviation of county college share about its mean",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of college share",
    "value": 11.8147,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sd_ds_w_2016": {
    "display": "17.9",
    "estimand": "standard deviation of the county Democratic two-party share about its mean",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 17.9486,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "sd_ds_w_2024": {
    "display": "16.4",
    "estimand": "standard deviation of the county Democratic two-party share about its mean",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "standard deviation, percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 16.4218,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_ba_big_2000": {
    "display": "30.2%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 30.1978,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_ba_oth_2000": {
    "display": "16.2%",
    "estimand": "mean county share with a bachelor's degree or more",
    "n": 3038,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents 25 and older",
    "value": 16.1701,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_btw_2000": {
    "ci": [
      43,
      87
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "61%",
    "estimand": "share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies between the two size classes",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share",
    "value": 60.9983,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_btw_2024": {
    "ci": [
      28,
      48
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "38%",
    "estimand": "share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies between the two size classes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share",
    "value": 37.6689,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_corr_big_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.23,
      0.32
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.04",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.0431536,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_corr_big_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.26,
      0.64
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.46",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class",
    "n": 135,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.464943,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_corr_oth_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.04,
      0.13
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.04",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class",
    "n": 3038,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.0428131,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_corr_oth_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      0.38,
      0.61
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.50",
    "estimand": "correlation of college share with the Democratic share inside the size class",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "correlation coefficient",
    "value": 0.497487,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_ds_big_2000": {
    "display": "57.7%",
    "estimand": "mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 57.7336,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_ds_chg_big": {
    "display": "−0.1",
    "estimand": "change in the mean county Democratic share, counting each county once",
    "n": 135,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change",
    "value": -0.0600095,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_ds_chg_oth": {
    "display": "−9.9",
    "estimand": "change in the mean county Democratic share, counting each county once",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote, change",
    "value": -9.85557,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_ds_oth_2000": {
    "display": "40.8%",
    "estimand": "mean county Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "n": 3038,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percentage points of the Democratic share of the two-party vote",
    "value": 40.8023,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_slope_big_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -2.9,
      4.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.6",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.563684,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_slope_big_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      3.4,
      8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.9",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 135,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 5.8541,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_slope_big_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -3.4,
      3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.2",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.150264,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_slope_oth_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -0.8,
      2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.7",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 3038,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.688216,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_slope_oth_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      6.2,
      9.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "7.8",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 2968,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 7.76443,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "size_slope_oth_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      1.3,
      3.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "2.4",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the size class",
    "n": 3038,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "other counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 2.42375,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_wth_2000": {
    "ci": [
      13,
      57
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "39%",
    "estimand": "share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies inside the size classes",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share",
    "value": 39.0017,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "size_wth_2024": {
    "ci": [
      52,
      72
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "62%",
    "estimand": "share of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share that lies inside the size classes",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of the vote-weighted covariance of college share and the Democratic share",
    "value": 62.3311,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      0.1,
      3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.6",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 1.56162,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "slope_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      7.2,
      9.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "8.6",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 8.59187,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "slope_w_2000": {
    "ci": [
      2.5,
      5.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "3.9",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3114,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 3.86659,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2004": {
    "ci": [
      3.9,
      6.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.2",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2004",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 5.18169,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2008": {
    "ci": [
      4.7,
      7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "5.9",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2008",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 5.94179,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2012": {
    "ci": [
      4.9,
      7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "6.0",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 5.99411,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2016": {
    "ci": [
      8.2,
      10.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "9.2",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 9.2304,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2020": {
    "ci": [
      8.5,
      10.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "9.3",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3105,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 9.34542,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "slope_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      8.4,
      10.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "9.2",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 9.2158,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "st_min_counties": {
    "display": "20",
    "estimand": "definition of the state set",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 and 2024",
    "population": "minimum number of counties in a state in the within-state comparison",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 20,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "st_n": {
    "display": "39",
    "estimand": "count of states in the within-state comparison",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 and 2024",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties in 2000 and 2024, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 39,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "st_neg_u_2000": {
    "display": "13",
    "estimand": "count of states with a negative slope",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 13,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_negsig_u_2000": {
    "display": "4",
    "estimand": "count of states whose interval lies below zero",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 4,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_pos_u_2000": {
    "display": "26",
    "estimand": "count of states with a positive slope",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 26,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_pos_u_2024": {
    "display": "36",
    "estimand": "count of states with a positive slope",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 36,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_pos_w_2000": {
    "display": "29",
    "estimand": "count of states with a positive slope",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 29,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "st_pos_w_2024": {
    "display": "39",
    "estimand": "count of states with a positive slope",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 39,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "st_sig_u_2000": {
    "display": "12",
    "estimand": "count of states whose interval lies above zero",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 12,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_sig_u_2024": {
    "display": "30",
    "estimand": "count of states whose interval lies above zero",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 30,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "st_sig_w_2000": {
    "display": "12",
    "estimand": "count of states whose interval lies above zero",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 12,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "st_sig_w_2024": {
    "display": "28",
    "estimand": "count of states whose interval lies above zero",
    "n": 39,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "states with at least 20 counties",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "states",
    "value": 28,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_u_0004": {
    "ci": [
      1.2,
      2.2
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.7",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2004",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 1.7343,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_0408": {
    "ci": [
      1.1,
      2.6
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.8",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2004 to 2008",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 1.81904,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_0812": {
    "ci": [
      -0.4,
      0.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.0",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.0389538,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_1216": {
    "ci": [
      2.3,
      3.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.8",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 2.79651,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_1620": {
    "ci": [
      0.5,
      1.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.8",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3105,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.777017,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_1624": {
    "ci": [
      0.2,
      1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.6",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.641454,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.3,
      0
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": -0.135563,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "step_w_0004": {
    "ci": [
      0.9,
      1.7
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+1.3",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2004",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 1.3151,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_0008": {
    "ci": [
      1.3,
      3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+2.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2008",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 2.07521,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_0408": {
    "ci": [
      0.2,
      1.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.8",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2004 to 2008",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.760106,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_0812": {
    "ci": [
      -0.2,
      0.3
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3112,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2008 to 2012",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.0523143,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_1216": {
    "ci": [
      2.7,
      3.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+3.2",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3113,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2012 to 2016",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 3.23629,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_1620": {
    "ci": [
      -0.3,
      0.5
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "+0.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3105,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2020",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": 0.115023,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_1624": {
    "ci": [
      -0.4,
      0.4
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.0",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2016 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": -0.0146015,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "step_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
      -0.3,
      0
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "−0.1",
    "estimand": "change in the slope of the Democratic share on college share, later election minus earlier election",
    "n": 3103,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2020 to 2024",
    "population": "counties with returns and county characteristics, Alaska excluded",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change between two elections",
    "value": -0.129625,
    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "vshare_big_2000": {
    "display": "35.1%",
    "estimand": "share of the two-party votes cast in the size class",
    "n": 76,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "large counties",
    "source": "county-returns",
    "unit": "percent of two-party votes in the analysis counties",
    "value": 35.0923,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wg_90p_u_2000": {
    "ci": [
      -2.2,
      2.1
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "0.1",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties",
    "n": 1502,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 0.0677488,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "wg_90p_u_2024": {
    "ci": [
      5.2,
      11.8
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "8.7",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties",
    "n": 787,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
    "value": 8.70588,
    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
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    "ci": [
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      2.9
    ],
    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "1.1",
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    "n": 1502,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
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      13.8
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    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties",
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    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
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    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "wg_cut50": {
    "display": "50%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wg_cut75": {
    "display": "75%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wg_cut90": {
    "display": "90%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "non-Hispanic white share cut-off for the county groups",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wg_lt50_w_2000": {
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    "ciLevel": 0.95,
    "display": "4.4",
    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties",
    "n": 253,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group Under 50% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
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    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
  },
  "wg_lt50_w_2024": {
    "ci": [
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      7.3
    ],
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    "estimand": "slope of the Democratic share on college share inside the group of counties",
    "n": 404,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group Under 50% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share",
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    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
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  "wgchg_90p_u": {
    "ci": [
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      11.3
    ],
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    "display": "+8.6",
    "estimand": "change in the slope inside the group, 2024 minus 2000",
    "n": 787,
    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change",
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    "weights": "none; each county counted once"
  },
  "wgchg_90p_w": {
    "ci": [
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      12.1
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    "display": "+9.7",
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    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "display": "+3.7",
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    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
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    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "note": "Interval: 95% percentile interval from a bootstrap over states, 2,000 replicates.",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "counties in the group Under 50% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of Democratic two-party share per 10 points of college share, change",
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    "weights": "two-party votes in the election"
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  "wgn_50_75_2000": {
    "display": "635",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 635,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group 50 to under 75% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
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    "display": "855",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 855,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 50 to under 75% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 855,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
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    "display": "724",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
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    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group 75 to under 90% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 724,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wgn_75_90_2024": {
    "display": "1,057",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
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    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 75 to under 90% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wgn_90p_2000": {
    "display": "1,502",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 1502,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wgn_90p_2024": {
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    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 787,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group 90% or more white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 787,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wgn_lt50_2000": {
    "display": "253",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 253,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000",
    "population": "counties in the group Under 50% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wgn_lt50_2024": {
    "display": "404",
    "estimand": "count of counties in the group",
    "n": 404,
    "note": "",
    "period": "2024",
    "population": "counties in the group Under 50% white",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "counties",
    "value": 404,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "wm_cut": {
    "display": "50%",
    "estimand": "definition of a county group",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "non-Hispanic white share cut-off",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "percent of residents",
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    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  },
  "x_unit": {
    "display": "10",
    "estimand": "definition of the slope unit",
    "note": "",
    "period": "2000 to 2024",
    "population": "unit of the slope",
    "source": "county-demographics",
    "unit": "points of college share",
    "value": 10,
    "weights": "none (full counts)"
  }
}