{
  "alt": "Line chart of the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote from 1956 to 2024 for voters with and without a four-year degree. The graduate line lies below the line for other voters in most elections through 2012, the two lines are close in 2012, and the graduate line lies above the other line in 2016, 2020 and 2024, ending at {fact:v_all_grad_2024} against {fact:v_all_non_2024} in 2024.",
  "caption": "The graduate line starts below the line for other voters and ends above it, and the two cross between 2012 and 2016. Each line is the weighted Democratic share of voters who reported a major-party vote, with a 95% interval; in 2024 the share was {fact:v_all_grad_2024} among graduates and {fact:v_all_non_2024} among other voters, and the 2024 gap is {fact:v_all_2024} points here against {fact:cv_all_2024} in the CES. A graduate holds a college or advanced degree.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 39.6573,
      "conf_low": 23.2459,
      "estimate": 31.4516,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 124,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.0606,
      "conf_low": 38.3338,
      "estimate": 41.1972,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1136,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 58.2529,
      "conf_low": 41.7471,
      "estimate": 50,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 142,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 72.8424,
      "conf_low": 67.054,
      "estimate": 69.9482,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 965,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.025,
      "conf_low": 29.975,
      "estimate": 37.5,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 160,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 51.7116,
      "conf_low": 44.5551,
      "estimate": 48.1333,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 750,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.0552,
      "conf_low": 33.4903,
      "estimate": 39.2727,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 275,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.5169,
      "conf_low": 32.3534,
      "estimate": 34.9352,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1311,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.4258,
      "conf_low": 31.1671,
      "estimate": 37.2964,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 250,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 57.462,
      "conf_low": 51.3671,
      "estimate": 54.4146,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1069,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 41.9009,
      "conf_low": 28.0444,
      "estimate": 34.9727,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 183,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.5936,
      "conf_low": 42.1575,
      "estimate": 45.8755,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 691,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 46.8465,
      "conf_low": 35.7764,
      "estimate": 41.3115,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 305,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.8297,
      "conf_low": 38.8956,
      "estimate": 41.8627,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1063,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 47.5307,
      "conf_low": 36.777,
      "estimate": 42.1538,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 325,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.1859,
      "conf_low": 45.4612,
      "estimate": 48.8235,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 850,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.7467,
      "conf_low": 46.946,
      "estimate": 51.8464,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 401,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 65.0142,
      "conf_low": 58.7268,
      "estimate": 61.8705,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 922,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55.0292,
      "conf_low": 43.957,
      "estimate": 49.4931,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 360,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 66.2904,
      "conf_low": 58.2035,
      "estimate": 62.2469,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 672,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55.3986,
      "conf_low": 45.3208,
      "estimate": 50.3597,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 429,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 57.1019,
      "conf_low": 48.9028,
      "estimate": 53.0023,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 689,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.5138,
      "conf_low": 44.1842,
      "estimate": 50.349,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 289,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 54.3986,
      "conf_low": 44.9897,
      "estimate": 49.6942,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 522,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.6415,
      "conf_low": 44.9676,
      "estimate": 50.8045,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 400,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 60.4373,
      "conf_low": 53.169,
      "estimate": 56.8032,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1133,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.4433,
      "conf_low": 49.6317,
      "estimate": 53.0375,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 1471,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 56.3742,
      "conf_low": 51.235,
      "estimate": 53.8046,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 2673,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 63.5519,
      "conf_low": 57.2154,
      "estimate": 60.3837,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 1175,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 51.6263,
      "conf_low": 45.2825,
      "estimate": 48.4544,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1416,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 66.9948,
      "conf_low": 62.7523,
      "estimate": 64.8735,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 2993,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.4563,
      "conf_low": 47.5666,
      "estimate": 50.0115,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 3036,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 71.9357,
      "conf_low": 66.0628,
      "estimate": 68.9993,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 2013,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 48.82,
      "conf_low": 42.4853,
      "estimate": 45.6527,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1905,
      "population": "All voters",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.822,
      "conf_low": 22.335,
      "estimate": 30.5785,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 121,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.9709,
      "conf_low": 37.1396,
      "estimate": 40.0552,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1086,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 55.1266,
      "conf_low": 38.1064,
      "estimate": 46.6165,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 133,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 70.1594,
      "conf_low": 63.9341,
      "estimate": 67.0468,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 877,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 41.3433,
      "conf_low": 26.2063,
      "estimate": 33.7748,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 151,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 46.3847,
      "conf_low": 38.8562,
      "estimate": 42.6205,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 664,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 40.4056,
      "conf_low": 28.642,
      "estimate": 34.5238,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 252,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 31.9795,
      "conf_low": 26.7534,
      "estimate": 29.3664,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1168,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.8693,
      "conf_low": 30.3266,
      "estimate": 36.5979,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 237,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.1147,
      "conf_low": 45.59,
      "estimate": 48.8523,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 940,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.6254,
      "conf_low": 24.4049,
      "estimate": 31.5152,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 165,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 41.4195,
      "conf_low": 33.4934,
      "estimate": 37.4564,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 574,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.4748,
      "conf_low": 33.7845,
      "estimate": 39.6296,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 270,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.5494,
      "conf_low": 31.2506,
      "estimate": 34.4,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 875,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 44.2831,
      "conf_low": 32.8597,
      "estimate": 38.5714,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 280,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 42.8093,
      "conf_low": 35.3862,
      "estimate": 39.0977,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 665,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.3778,
      "conf_low": 42.6534,
      "estimate": 48.0156,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 335,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 58.5519,
      "conf_low": 51.12,
      "estimate": 54.836,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 693,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.488,
      "conf_low": 40.7835,
      "estimate": 46.6358,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 318,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 57.6736,
      "conf_low": 48.2296,
      "estimate": 52.9516,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 514,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 53.5717,
      "conf_low": 42.5468,
      "estimate": 48.0593,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 357,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.1785,
      "conf_low": 39.9426,
      "estimate": 44.5605,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 533,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 52.4718,
      "conf_low": 38.8398,
      "estimate": 45.6558,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 233,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 45.0851,
      "conf_low": 34.097,
      "estimate": 39.591,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 368,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 49.9868,
      "conf_low": 36.5442,
      "estimate": 43.2655,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 258,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 48.5553,
      "conf_low": 39.1,
      "estimate": 43.8277,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 523,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 50.8293,
      "conf_low": 43.1072,
      "estimate": 46.9683,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 1039,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 43.4306,
      "conf_low": 37.2388,
      "estimate": 40.3347,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1489,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 58.7933,
      "conf_low": 51.6318,
      "estimate": 55.2125,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 937,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 37.5779,
      "conf_low": 30.5838,
      "estimate": 34.0809,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1010,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 62.62,
      "conf_low": 57.7508,
      "estimate": 60.1854,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 2339,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 38.2626,
      "conf_low": 32.9063,
      "estimate": 35.5845,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 2230,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 67.2801,
      "conf_low": 60.5838,
      "estimate": 63.932,
      "group": "Four-year degree or more",
      "n": 1591,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 39.4245,
      "conf_low": 32.2713,
      "estimate": 35.8479,
      "group": "No four-year degree",
      "n": 1390,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_by_degree",
  "notes": [
    "A cell needs at least 100 respondents and a Kish effective sample size of at least 100; cells below that are left out. This leaves out 1952 and 1960, and the line joins the neighboring elections.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size; they treat the weighted sample as a random sample and ignore the stages of the sample design."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; the file gives every respondent the same weight in most studies before 1992)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "Even split",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 50
      }
    ],
    "breaks": [
      1960
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Four-year degree or more": "cat1",
      "No four-year degree": "cat2"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "group",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1952,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      20,
      80
    ],
    "yLabel": "Democratic share of the two-party vote (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote by degree, ANES, 1956 to 2024; voters who reported a major-party vote, all voters (the button shows white non-Hispanic voters); 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "population",
        "label": "Population"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Graduates voted less Democratic than other voters in most elections through 2012 and more Democratic from 2016",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "All voters"
      },
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All voters"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "White non-Hispanic voters"
      },
      "id": "white",
      "label": "White non-Hispanic voters"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}