{
  "alt": "Dot chart with one row for each presidential election and two dots in each row, one for the ANES and one for the CES, showing the survey's Democratic share of the two-party vote minus the certified national share, each ANES and CES dot with an interval. The CES dots lie close to the zero line in every election. The ANES dots lie right of zero in 1992, 1996, 2020 and 2024 and include zero in the other elections, at {fact:anes_cert_diff_2024} points in 2024.",
  "caption": "The ANES dots lie right of zero in 1992, 1996, 2020 and 2024 and the CES dots sit close to the zero line. In 2024 the ANES voters were {fact:anes_share_2024} Democratic, the CES voters {fact:ces_share_2024} and the certified count {fact:cert_2024}. Against the CES, the ANES Democratic share in 2024 is {fact:diff_grad_2024} points higher among graduates ({fact:v_all_grad_2024} against {fact:cv_all_grad_2024}) and {fact:diff_non_2024} among non-graduates ({fact:v_all_non_2024} against {fact:cv_all_non_2024}). The certified count has no breakdown by education, so this comparison shows the level and not the gap. The weights view gives the graduate gap under each weight defined for the year; within a survey the weights move the gap by at most {fact:weight_spread_max} points, against an ANES-CES difference of {fact:diff_2024} points in 2024.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 2.7628,
      "conf_low": -2.73759,
      "estimate": 0.0126048,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1976",
      "n": 1322,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.11359,
      "conf_low": -4.45526,
      "estimate": -1.17083,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1980",
      "n": 877,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.51807,
      "conf_low": -1.69578,
      "estimate": 0.911142,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1984",
      "n": 1376,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.77676,
      "conf_low": -1.88591,
      "estimate": 0.945426,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1988",
      "n": 1195,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.50913,
      "conf_low": 2.2544,
      "estimate": 4.88176,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1992",
      "n": 1357,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.94826,
      "conf_low": 0.331096,
      "estimate": 3.63968,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "1996",
      "n": 1034,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.97727,
      "conf_low": -1.47447,
      "estimate": 1.7514,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2000",
      "n": 1120,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.89338,
      "conf_low": -2.6254,
      "estimate": 1.13399,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2004",
      "n": 811,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.16585,
      "conf_low": -2.03804,
      "estimate": 1.0639,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2008",
      "n": 1539,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.63804,
      "conf_low": -0.446184,
      "estimate": 1.59593,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2012",
      "n": 4188,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.0952,
      "conf_low": -0.522644,
      "estimate": 1.78628,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2016",
      "n": 2609,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.40115,
      "conf_low": 2.03804,
      "estimate": 3.7196,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2020",
      "n": 6119,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.2924,
      "conf_low": 3.77141,
      "estimate": 6.03191,
      "group": "ANES",
      "label": "2024",
      "n": 3948,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.889818,
      "conf_low": -0.652299,
      "estimate": 0.11876,
      "group": "CES",
      "label": "2008",
      "n": 23585,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.8158,
      "conf_low": 0.302556,
      "estimate": 1.05918,
      "group": "CES",
      "label": "2012",
      "n": 37789,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.486654,
      "conf_low": -0.824972,
      "estimate": -0.169159,
      "group": "CES",
      "label": "2016",
      "n": 40891,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.874758,
      "conf_low": -0.360204,
      "estimate": 0.257277,
      "group": "CES",
      "label": "2020",
      "n": 43872,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.465027,
      "conf_low": -1.04551,
      "estimate": -0.290239,
      "group": "CES",
      "label": "2024",
      "n": 42008,
      "panel": "certified"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4125,
      "conf_low": 7.44609,
      "estimate": 11.9293,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "ANES 2016",
      "n": 2591,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.5456,
      "conf_low": 7.53659,
      "estimate": 12.0411,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "ANES 2016",
      "n": 2571,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.0989,
      "conf_low": 11.6253,
      "estimate": 14.8621,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "ANES 2020",
      "n": 6029,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.8193,
      "conf_low": 12.0789,
      "estimate": 15.4491,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "ANES 2020",
      "n": 5987,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.6657,
      "conf_low": 19.0275,
      "estimate": 23.3466,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "ANES 2024",
      "n": 3918,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.1678,
      "conf_low": 18.6615,
      "estimate": 22.9147,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "ANES 2024",
      "n": 3903,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.13124,
      "conf_low": 4.10457,
      "estimate": 5.61791,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "CES 2012",
      "n": 37789,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.14695,
      "conf_low": 3.15519,
      "estimate": 4.65107,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "CES 2012",
      "n": 37789,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.5105,
      "conf_low": 11.0596,
      "estimate": 12.285,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "CES 2016",
      "n": 40891,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4455,
      "conf_low": 8.83577,
      "estimate": 10.1406,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "CES 2016",
      "n": 40891,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4573,
      "conf_low": 14.0872,
      "estimate": 15.2723,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "CES 2020",
      "n": 43872,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1635,
      "conf_low": 11.5648,
      "estimate": 12.8641,
      "group": "Post-election weight",
      "label": "CES 2020",
      "n": 43871,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.5047,
      "conf_low": 14.9294,
      "estimate": 16.217,
      "group": "Validated-vote weight",
      "label": "CES 2020",
      "n": 35746,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.7906,
      "conf_low": 10.8392,
      "estimate": 12.3149,
      "group": "Main weight",
      "label": "CES 2024",
      "n": 42008,
      "panel": "weights"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.9503,
      "conf_low": 10.8915,
      "estimate": 12.4209,
      "group": "Validated-vote weight",
      "label": "CES 2024",
      "n": 32948,
      "panel": "weights"
    }
  ],
  "id": "survey_checks",
  "notes": [
    "The certified share is the Democratic share of the Democratic and Republican candidates' votes in the state returns, summed over states; it is a full count and has no interval. The survey interval is shifted by the count.",
    "ANES 2024 uses the pre-election weight VCF0009z; the weights view shows the post-election weight. The CES weights are the cumulative-file weight, the post-election weight (2012, 2016 and 2020) and the validated-vote weight (2020 and 2024).",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size; they treat the weighted sample as a random sample and ignore the stages of the sample design.",
    "The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals are model based and ignore how respondents came to be in the panel."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1976-2024, and CES cumulative file, 2008-2024; weighted (VCF0009z, weight_postelection, weight_cumulative, weight_post and vvweight, as labelled); MIT Election Data and Science Lab state presidential returns, 1976-2024; full counts",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "CES": "cat2"
    },
    "group": "group",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "Certified count",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -6,
      10
    ],
    "xLabel": "Survey voters minus certified count (points)",
    "y": "label"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote among survey voters minus the certified national share, points, ANES 1976 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; all voters who reported a major-party vote, whether or not education is known (button: the graduate gap under each survey weight); 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "panel",
        "label": "View"
      },
      {
        "key": "label",
        "label": "Row"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Survey or weight"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Difference or gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The ANES voters were more Democratic than the certified count in 1992, 1996, 2020 and 2024, and the CES voters were within {fact:ces_cert_max} points of it in every election",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "certified"
      },
      "id": "certified",
      "label": "Against the certified count"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "panel": "weights"
      },
      "id": "weights",
      "label": "Graduate gap by weight",
      "spec": {
        "colors": {
          "Main weight": "cat1",
          "Post-election weight": "cat2",
          "Validated-vote weight": "cat3"
        },
        "referenceLabel": "No gap",
        "xDomain": [
          0,
          30
        ],
        "xLabel": "Graduate minus other voters in the Democratic two-party share (points)"
      },
      "title": "Within a survey the weight changes the graduate gap by less than the difference between the surveys in 2024"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}