{
  "alt": "Line chart of the education gap in the Democratic two-party vote from 1956 to 2024 with three lines for all voters: unadjusted, net of income rank, and net of income rank and race. All three lines are below zero through the 1990s and rise above zero in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The lines net of income lie above the unadjusted line before 2024, so the rise from 2012 to 2024 is smaller for them, and the three lines are close together in 2016, 2020 and 2024.",
  "caption": "The adjusted line lies above the unadjusted line in every election before 2024 and the two lines meet in 2024, so the adjusted rise is smaller: from 2008 to 2024 it is {fact:inc_chg_net_0824} points net of income rank against {fact:inc_chg_raw_0824} unadjusted. In 2016, 2020 and 2024 the two estimates differ by at most {fact:inc_late_maxdiff} points. Income is the respondent's family income percentile group within the study year, and the adjusted lines add the five income groups (and, for all voters, a white indicator) to a graduate indicator.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": -0.473044,
      "conf_low": -18.2597,
      "estimate": -9.36639,
      "n": 1210,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.326146,
      "conf_low": -24.6487,
      "estimate": -12.1613,
      "n": 891,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.3693,
      "conf_low": -30.2278,
      "estimate": -21.2985,
      "n": 1070,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.41379,
      "conf_low": -18.2772,
      "estimate": -9.84548,
      "n": 892,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.9828,
      "conf_low": -1.81994,
      "estimate": 4.58143,
      "n": 1546,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.05483,
      "conf_low": -22.1788,
      "estimate": -15.1168,
      "n": 1239,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.61882,
      "conf_low": -19.9597,
      "estimate": -11.7893,
      "n": 793,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.89553,
      "conf_low": -8.2338,
      "estimate": -1.66913,
      "n": 1245,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.899126,
      "conf_low": -14.0326,
      "estimate": -7.46587,
      "n": 1082,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.79604,
      "conf_low": -15.7527,
      "estimate": -9.77436,
      "n": 1238,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.37777,
      "conf_low": -18.8331,
      "estimate": -11.6054,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.78681,
      "conf_low": -7.4198,
      "estimate": -0.316495,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.47028,
      "conf_low": -6.79844,
      "estimate": 1.33592,
      "n": 729,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.657906,
      "conf_low": -13.595,
      "estimate": -6.46856,
      "n": 1442,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.43311,
      "conf_low": -5.24471,
      "estimate": -0.905801,
      "n": 4040,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.5938,
      "conf_low": 7.56476,
      "estimate": 12.0793,
      "n": 2542,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.3768,
      "conf_low": 11.8417,
      "estimate": 15.1093,
      "n": 5902,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.0317,
      "conf_low": 19.1224,
      "estimate": 23.5771,
      "n": 3570,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.96689,
      "conf_low": -13.8257,
      "estimate": -4.42939,
      "n": 1210,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.02567,
      "conf_low": -21.6816,
      "estimate": -8.32798,
      "n": 891,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.52763,
      "conf_low": -26.3698,
      "estimate": -16.9487,
      "n": 1070,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.351699,
      "conf_low": -17.3914,
      "estimate": -8.51984,
      "n": 892,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.3454,
      "conf_low": 3.12755,
      "estimate": 9.73646,
      "n": 1546,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.939121,
      "conf_low": -15.638,
      "estimate": -8.28855,
      "n": 1239,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.66447,
      "conf_low": -14.3455,
      "estimate": -5.84053,
      "n": 793,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.0532,
      "conf_low": -1.23682,
      "estimate": 5.4082,
      "n": 1245,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.51899,
      "conf_low": -9.30468,
      "estimate": -2.39284,
      "n": 1082,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.38384,
      "conf_low": -10.5392,
      "estimate": -4.0777,
      "n": 1238,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.48098,
      "conf_low": -13.0366,
      "estimate": -5.27781,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.7713,
      "conf_low": -2.53051,
      "estimate": 5.12042,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.6523,
      "conf_low": -0.861019,
      "estimate": 7.89564,
      "n": 729,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.21686,
      "conf_low": -5.62914,
      "estimate": 1.79386,
      "n": 1442,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.10651,
      "conf_low": -1.1259,
      "estimate": 3.49031,
      "n": 4040,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.1125,
      "conf_low": 10.39,
      "estimate": 15.2512,
      "n": 2542,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.0152,
      "conf_low": 13.906,
      "estimate": 17.4606,
      "n": 5902,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.0176,
      "conf_low": 17.2242,
      "estimate": 22.1209,
      "n": 3570,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.88254,
      "conf_low": -13.8232,
      "estimate": -4.47034,
      "n": 1210,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.39871,
      "conf_low": -21.4815,
      "estimate": -8.04139,
      "n": 891,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1960
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.07159,
      "conf_low": -26.3813,
      "estimate": -17.2264,
      "n": 1070,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.02916,
      "conf_low": -15.9953,
      "estimate": -7.48307,
      "n": 892,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.5316,
      "conf_low": 2.97357,
      "estimate": 9.25258,
      "n": 1546,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.74721,
      "conf_low": -13.9219,
      "estimate": -6.58735,
      "n": 1239,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.29359,
      "conf_low": -13.3747,
      "estimate": -5.04058,
      "n": 793,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.9065,
      "conf_low": -0.306905,
      "estimate": 6.29978,
      "n": 1245,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.31986,
      "conf_low": -8.09181,
      "estimate": -1.38597,
      "n": 1082,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.82533,
      "conf_low": -9.95242,
      "estimate": -3.56354,
      "n": 1238,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.20143,
      "conf_low": -10.9758,
      "estimate": -3.38716,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1031,
      "conf_low": -1.22892,
      "estimate": 6.4371,
      "n": 941,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.4375,
      "conf_low": 1.69382,
      "estimate": 10.0657,
      "n": 729,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.3537,
      "conf_low": -3.02385,
      "estimate": 4.16495,
      "n": 1442,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.2526,
      "conf_low": 1.29159,
      "estimate": 5.77211,
      "n": 4040,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.4599,
      "conf_low": 12.11,
      "estimate": 16.785,
      "n": 2542,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.6936,
      "conf_low": 15.0451,
      "estimate": 18.3693,
      "n": 5902,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.3534,
      "conf_low": 17.9346,
      "estimate": 22.644,
      "n": 3570,
      "population": "All voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank and race",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.169928,
      "conf_low": -18.0797,
      "estimate": -9.12484,
      "n": 1158,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.8528,
      "conf_low": -31.3457,
      "estimate": -22.0993,
      "n": 978,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.277795,
      "conf_low": -16.8367,
      "estimate": -8.27946,
      "n": 803,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.7878,
      "conf_low": -1.23581,
      "estimate": 5.27601,
      "n": 1384,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.18418,
      "conf_low": -17.7654,
      "estimate": -10.4748,
      "n": 1108,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.31541,
      "conf_low": -15.5945,
      "estimate": -7.13955,
      "n": 676,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7637,
      "conf_low": -3.1314,
      "estimate": 3.81615,
      "n": 1043,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.4167,
      "conf_low": -8.69914,
      "estimate": -1.64122,
      "n": 864,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0424526,
      "conf_low": -13.3733,
      "estimate": -6.6654,
      "n": 964,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.6877,
      "conf_low": -13.1826,
      "estimate": -5.24744,
      "n": 760,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.1277,
      "conf_low": -1.55491,
      "estimate": 6.2864,
      "n": 751,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.5765,
      "conf_low": -2.82524,
      "estimate": 6.37564,
      "n": 544,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.66208,
      "conf_low": -9.09088,
      "estimate": -0.714403,
      "n": 743,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.4637,
      "conf_low": 1.46099,
      "estimate": 6.46234,
      "n": 2466,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.6508,
      "conf_low": 16.4721,
      "estimate": 21.5615,
      "n": 1910,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.6631,
      "conf_low": 21.3631,
      "estimate": 25.0131,
      "n": 4469,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 33.5893,
      "conf_low": 23.3112,
      "estimate": 28.4502,
      "n": 2738,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Graduate indicator alone",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.04659,
      "conf_low": -13.9024,
      "estimate": -4.42792,
      "n": 1158,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -9.12982,
      "conf_low": -28.5965,
      "estimate": -18.8631,
      "n": 978,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.771738,
      "conf_low": -17.2491,
      "estimate": -8.2387,
      "n": 803,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.3562,
      "conf_low": 1.92001,
      "estimate": 8.63809,
      "n": 1384,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.0167,
      "conf_low": -13.0648,
      "estimate": -5.52407,
      "n": 1108,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.26708,
      "conf_low": -12.3715,
      "estimate": -3.55223,
      "n": 676,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.6842,
      "conf_low": 1.67089,
      "estimate": 8.67757,
      "n": 1043,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.76567,
      "conf_low": -5.92527,
      "estimate": 1.4202,
      "n": 864,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.97519,
      "conf_low": -9.29518,
      "estimate": -2.16,
      "n": 964,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.96671,
      "conf_low": -9.78148,
      "estimate": -1.40739,
      "n": 760,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.3194,
      "conf_low": 1.42619,
      "estimate": 9.87277,
      "n": 751,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 20.8925,
      "conf_low": 1.33294,
      "estimate": 11.1127,
      "n": 544,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 15.2712,
      "conf_low": -1.92551,
      "estimate": 6.67286,
      "n": 743,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.4094,
      "conf_low": 2.85521,
      "estimate": 8.13229,
      "n": 2466,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.044,
      "conf_low": 16.2551,
      "estimate": 21.6495,
      "n": 1910,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 29.358,
      "conf_low": 21.5391,
      "estimate": 25.4486,
      "n": 4469,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.3858,
      "conf_low": 21.0982,
      "estimate": 26.742,
      "n": 2738,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic voters",
      "spec": "Net of income rank",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "gap_net_of_income",
  "notes": [
    "Elections where either education group has fewer than 100 voters with a reported income are left out (1952).",
    "Every line comes from the same rows within a view, those with a reported income. Intervals use HC3 robust errors."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; the file gives every respondent the same weight in most studies before 1992)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "colors": {
      "Graduate indicator alone": "total",
      "Net of income rank": "cat1",
      "Net of income rank and race": "cat2"
    },
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "spec",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1952,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Election year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -30,
      40
    ],
    "yLabel": "Graduate minus other voters (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Graduate minus other voters in the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, points, ANES 1956 to 2024, from weighted linear probability models on voters with a reported family income; all voters (the button shows white non-Hispanic voters); 95% HC3 intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "population",
        "label": "Population"
      },
      {
        "key": "spec",
        "label": "Specification"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Election"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n voters"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Holding income rank fixed shrinks the rise in the vote gap from 2012 to 2024 from {fact:inc_chg_raw_1224} to {fact:inc_chg_net_1224} points and leaves most of it",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "All voters"
      },
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All voters"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "White non-Hispanic voters"
      },
      "id": "white",
      "label": "White non-Hispanic voters"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}