{
  "alt": "Panels of lines, one for the presidential vote and one for party identification, each showing the gap between graduates and other respondents in the ANES from the 1950s and in the CES from 2008. The ANES lines are mostly below zero through 2012 and rise above zero, the vote line from 2016 and the party-identification line from 2020, ending at {fact:v_all_2024} and {fact:p_all_2024} in 2024. The CES lines are above the ANES lines in 2008 and 2012 and below them in 2024, ending at {fact:cv_all_2024} and {fact:cp_all_2024}.",
  "caption": "In the ANES the vote gap is above zero from 2016 and the party-identification gap from 2020, and the CES lines sit above the ANES lines before 2016 and below them in 2024. The ANES vote gap was {fact:v_all_2024} in 2024 against {fact:cv_all_2024} in the CES, and the party-identification gap {fact:p_all_2024} against {fact:cp_all_2024}. Each point is a gap between two weighted Democratic shares, with a 95% interval.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": -1.05462,
      "conf_low": -18.4365,
      "estimate": -9.74557,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1260,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.2025,
      "conf_low": -28.6939,
      "estimate": -19.9482,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1107,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.3009,
      "conf_low": -18.9658,
      "estimate": -10.6333,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 910,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.6702,
      "conf_low": -1.99505,
      "estimate": 4.33756,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1586,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -10.273,
      "conf_low": -23.9633,
      "estimate": -17.1181,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1319,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.04001,
      "conf_low": -18.7657,
      "estimate": -10.9029,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 874,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.72899,
      "conf_low": -6.83134,
      "estimate": -0.551177,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1368,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.32804,
      "conf_low": -13.0113,
      "estimate": -6.66968,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1175,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.20209,
      "conf_low": -15.8462,
      "estimate": -10.0241,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1323,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.89828,
      "conf_low": -19.6094,
      "estimate": -12.7538,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1032,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.8533,
      "conf_low": -9.13856,
      "estimate": -2.64263,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1118,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.40959,
      "conf_low": -7.09998,
      "estimate": 0.654807,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 811,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.877205,
      "conf_low": -12.8745,
      "estimate": -5.99865,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1533,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.49935,
      "conf_low": -5.03351,
      "estimate": -0.76708,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 4144,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4125,
      "conf_low": 7.44609,
      "estimate": 11.9293,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 2591,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.0989,
      "conf_low": 11.6253,
      "estimate": 14.8621,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 6029,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.6657,
      "conf_low": 19.0275,
      "estimate": 23.3466,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 3918,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.1877,
      "conf_low": 2.16722,
      "estimate": 3.67746,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 23585,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.13124,
      "conf_low": 4.10457,
      "estimate": 5.61791,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 37789,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.5105,
      "conf_low": 11.0596,
      "estimate": 12.285,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 40891,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4573,
      "conf_low": 14.0872,
      "estimate": 15.2723,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 43872,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.7906,
      "conf_low": 10.8392,
      "estimate": 12.3149,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 42008,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.923,
      "conf_low": -28.1499,
      "estimate": -18.5364,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1602,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.03273,
      "conf_low": -20.8754,
      "estimate": -11.9541,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1528,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.4596,
      "conf_low": -31.9329,
      "estimate": -22.1963,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1266,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1958
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.0352248,
      "conf_low": -17.5675,
      "estimate": -8.76613,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1132,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1962
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -9.92834,
      "conf_low": -26.25,
      "estimate": -18.0892,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1407,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.579,
      "conf_low": -30.7599,
      "estimate": -21.1694,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1101,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1966
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -14.9217,
      "conf_low": -30.2288,
      "estimate": -22.5752,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1364,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.03222,
      "conf_low": -24.4053,
      "estimate": -16.2187,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1290,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1970
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.68155,
      "conf_low": -20.4335,
      "estimate": -14.5575,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2293,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.85563,
      "conf_low": -21.5546,
      "estimate": -12.7051,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1290,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1974
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.6869,
      "conf_low": -24.1341,
      "estimate": -17.9105,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1869,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.3705,
      "conf_low": -23.169,
      "estimate": -17.2697,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1893,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1978
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.5964,
      "conf_low": -19.4874,
      "estimate": -12.5419,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1365,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.47099,
      "conf_low": -18.6054,
      "estimate": -11.5382,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1216,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.45521,
      "conf_low": -14.1647,
      "estimate": -8.30995,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1938,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.80706,
      "conf_low": -13.8784,
      "estimate": -8.34274,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1845,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.54834,
      "conf_low": -16.9521,
      "estimate": -11.2502,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1751,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.12488,
      "conf_low": -15.7095,
      "estimate": -9.9172,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1702,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.82464,
      "conf_low": -16.705,
      "estimate": -11.7648,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2099,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.7604,
      "conf_low": -23.84,
      "estimate": -17.8002,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1555,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.10759,
      "conf_low": -17.0391,
      "estimate": -11.0734,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1546,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.12028,
      "conf_low": -14.9114,
      "estimate": -8.01584,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1119,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.63603,
      "conf_low": -18.9626,
      "estimate": -13.2993,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1566,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -6.06474,
      "conf_low": -18.7755,
      "estimate": -12.4201,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1363,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.5273,
      "conf_low": -9.32606,
      "estimate": -2.39938,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1074,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.98746,
      "conf_low": -15.5504,
      "estimate": -9.26893,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2006,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.86261,
      "conf_low": -9.73724,
      "estimate": -5.79993,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 5034,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.46912,
      "conf_low": -2.17584,
      "estimate": 1.64664,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 3643,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.8519,
      "conf_low": 5.85438,
      "estimate": 8.85314,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 7181,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.3744,
      "conf_low": 13.6227,
      "estimate": 17.4986,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 5055,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.154616,
      "conf_low": -2.95213,
      "estimate": -1.55338,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 28600,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.84642,
      "conf_low": -1.80724,
      "estimate": 0.519593,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 11436,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2009
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.21457,
      "conf_low": 0.562523,
      "estimate": 1.88855,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 47861,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.43841,
      "conf_low": -2.07335,
      "estimate": 0.182534,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 16696,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2011
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.17583,
      "conf_low": -0.656174,
      "estimate": 0.759828,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 45847,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 3.10226,
      "conf_low": -1.7732,
      "estimate": 0.664528,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 12834,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2013
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.77747,
      "conf_low": 0.151307,
      "estimate": 1.46439,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 44776,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2014
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.16766,
      "conf_low": 0.960154,
      "estimate": 3.56391,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 11559,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2015
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.6377,
      "conf_low": 3.40315,
      "estimate": 4.52043,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 51986,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.15258,
      "conf_low": 2.45209,
      "estimate": 4.80233,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 14360,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2017
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.42725,
      "conf_low": 6.98362,
      "estimate": 8.20543,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 49327,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.1786,
      "conf_low": 6.98504,
      "estimate": 9.08181,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 14767,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.5033,
      "conf_low": 11.141,
      "estimate": 12.3221,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 49769,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.8556,
      "conf_low": 10.3504,
      "estimate": 12.103,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 20584,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.5706,
      "conf_low": 10.0066,
      "estimate": 11.2886,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 49520,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7284,
      "conf_low": 7.04476,
      "estimate": 8.8866,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 19715,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.8905,
      "conf_low": 7.97903,
      "estimate": 9.43475,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 50847,
      "population": "All respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.732782,
      "conf_low": -18.2207,
      "estimate": -9.47674,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1207,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -11.3687,
      "conf_low": -29.4917,
      "estimate": -20.4302,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1010,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.392718,
      "conf_low": -17.2986,
      "estimate": -8.84565,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 815,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.5935,
      "conf_low": -1.27876,
      "estimate": 5.15737,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1420,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.18522,
      "conf_low": -19.3235,
      "estimate": -12.2544,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1177,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.19877,
      "conf_low": -14.0814,
      "estimate": -5.94129,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 739,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.8692,
      "conf_low": -1.40995,
      "estimate": 5.22963,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1145,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 6.28537,
      "conf_low": -7.338,
      "estimate": -0.526316,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 945,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.296447,
      "conf_low": -13.3443,
      "estimate": -6.82035,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1028,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.20388,
      "conf_low": -13.8356,
      "estimate": -6.31586,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 832,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.6899,
      "conf_low": -3.69242,
      "estimate": 3.49873,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 890,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.8194,
      "conf_low": -2.68981,
      "estimate": 6.06479,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 601,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 7.6553,
      "conf_low": -8.77966,
      "estimate": -0.56218,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 781,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.5825,
      "conf_low": 1.68458,
      "estimate": 6.63356,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 2528,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 26.1367,
      "conf_low": 16.1265,
      "estimate": 21.1316,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 1947,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 28.2204,
      "conf_low": 20.9816,
      "estimate": 24.601,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 4569,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 32.9833,
      "conf_low": 23.1849,
      "estimate": 28.0841,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 2981,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 10.7938,
      "conf_low": 7.60603,
      "estimate": 9.1999,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 19889,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 11.9106,
      "conf_low": 8.55294,
      "estimate": 10.2318,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 30356,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.951,
      "conf_low": 17.2432,
      "estimate": 18.5971,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 30727,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.9931,
      "conf_low": 21.4879,
      "estimate": 22.7405,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 32857,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.6936,
      "conf_low": 14.4713,
      "estimate": 16.0825,
      "measure": "Presidential vote",
      "n": 31857,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -9.5403,
      "conf_low": -29.2487,
      "estimate": -19.3945,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1464,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.65602,
      "conf_low": -21.8196,
      "estimate": -12.7378,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1415,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -12.6201,
      "conf_low": -32.6327,
      "estimate": -22.6264,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1164,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1958
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.00693,
      "conf_low": -16.1702,
      "estimate": -7.08166,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1036,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1962
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -7.89127,
      "conf_low": -24.8396,
      "estimate": -16.3655,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1258,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1964
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.93783,
      "conf_low": -28.3429,
      "estimate": -18.6404,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 978,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1966
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -13.6313,
      "conf_low": -29.3561,
      "estimate": -21.4937,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1206,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1968
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.41269,
      "conf_low": -22.2169,
      "estimate": -13.8148,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1148,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1970
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.42382,
      "conf_low": -20.6965,
      "estimate": -14.5601,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2018,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1972
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.750967,
      "conf_low": -19.1452,
      "estimate": -9.94807,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1138,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1974
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.16807,
      "conf_low": -21.1393,
      "estimate": -14.6537,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1607,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1976
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -8.87429,
      "conf_low": -21.3145,
      "estimate": -15.0944,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1613,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1978
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -4.32427,
      "conf_low": -19.2423,
      "estimate": -11.7833,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1136,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.42493,
      "conf_low": -15.2558,
      "estimate": -7.84034,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1031,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.877408,
      "conf_low": -11.6778,
      "estimate": -5.40019,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1568,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.91518,
      "conf_low": -10.184,
      "estimate": -4.13441,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1431,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.111284,
      "conf_low": -12.5369,
      "estimate": -6.32411,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1321,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.17187,
      "conf_low": -13.9939,
      "estimate": -7.5829,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1288,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -2.82228,
      "conf_low": -13.7613,
      "estimate": -8.29177,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1606,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -5.83572,
      "conf_low": -19.0339,
      "estimate": -12.4348,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1200,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.258521,
      "conf_low": -12.8721,
      "estimate": -6.30678,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1201,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.51586,
      "conf_low": -17.1261,
      "estimate": -9.32099,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 834,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -3.32043,
      "conf_low": -16.1881,
      "estimate": -9.75428,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1169,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -1.18799,
      "conf_low": -15.3282,
      "estimate": -8.25807,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 1065,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.67624,
      "conf_low": -7.3178,
      "estimate": 0.679219,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 764,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 2.81532,
      "conf_low": -12.2747,
      "estimate": -4.72968,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 990,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 4.20748,
      "conf_low": -4.97031,
      "estimate": -0.381414,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2981,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 13.8951,
      "conf_low": 5.12722,
      "estimate": 9.51114,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 2636,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 21.469,
      "conf_low": 14.7663,
      "estimate": 18.1177,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 5290,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 27.9316,
      "conf_low": 19.056,
      "estimate": 23.4938,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 3682,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "ANES",
      "year": 2024
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 5.32083,
      "conf_low": 2.3224,
      "estimate": 3.82161,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 23608,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.44664,
      "conf_low": 4.22349,
      "estimate": 6.83507,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 8366,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2009
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.48459,
      "conf_low": 6.46717,
      "estimate": 7.97588,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 35480,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.15326,
      "conf_low": 3.06895,
      "estimate": 5.61111,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 12698,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2011
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 8.43379,
      "conf_low": 5.14454,
      "estimate": 6.78916,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 33444,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.78203,
      "conf_low": 4.24172,
      "estimate": 7.01187,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 9468,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2013
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 9.56114,
      "conf_low": 6.57061,
      "estimate": 8.06588,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 32357,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2014
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.0961,
      "conf_low": 8.15858,
      "estimate": 11.1273,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 8233,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2015
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 12.866,
      "conf_low": 10.2965,
      "estimate": 11.5812,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 36202,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 14.973,
      "conf_low": 9.50985,
      "estimate": 12.2414,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 9458,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2017
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.8307,
      "conf_low": 15.1935,
      "estimate": 16.5121,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 36733,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 18.8978,
      "conf_low": 14.2543,
      "estimate": 16.576,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 10414,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2019
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 22.0665,
      "conf_low": 19.5105,
      "estimate": 20.7885,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 35942,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 23.3657,
      "conf_low": 19.3277,
      "estimate": 21.3467,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 13665,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2021
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 19.6193,
      "conf_low": 16.7736,
      "estimate": 18.1964,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 34004,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 17.7884,
      "conf_low": 13.4859,
      "estimate": 15.6371,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 12444,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 16.4908,
      "conf_low": 13.2046,
      "estimate": 14.8477,
      "measure": "Party identification",
      "n": 34772,
      "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents",
      "survey": "CES",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "gap_by_survey",
  "notes": [
    "A cell needs at least 100 respondents and a Kish effective sample size of at least 100; cells below that are left out. The line joins the neighboring studies where a study is left out.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size; they treat the weighted sample as a random sample and ignore the stages of the sample design.",
    "The CES is an opt-in online panel, so its intervals are model based and ignore how respondents came to be in the panel."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1952-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; the file gives every respondent the same weight in most studies before 1992); Cooperative Election Study cumulative file, 2008-2024; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "label": "No gap",
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "breaks": [
      1954,
      1960
    ],
    "colors": {
      "ANES": "cat1",
      "CES": "cat2"
    },
    "facet": "measure",
    "facetColumns": 2,
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "series": "survey",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1952,
      2024
    ],
    "xLabel": "Study year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -35,
      40
    ],
    "yLabel": "Graduate minus other respondents (points)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share among graduates minus the share among other respondents, points, ANES 1952 to 2024 and CES 2008 to 2024; presidential vote (voters with a major-party vote) and party identification (identifiers, leaners included); all respondents (the button shows white non-Hispanic respondents)",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "population",
        "label": "Population"
      },
      {
        "key": "measure",
        "label": "Measure"
      },
      {
        "key": "survey",
        "label": "Survey"
      },
      {
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Study year"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Gap (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "95% CI low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "95% CI high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "n respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Graduates became more Democratic than other respondents in vote and party identification, and in the ANES the party-identification gap followed the vote gap",
  "type": "line",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "All respondents"
      },
      "id": "all",
      "label": "All respondents"
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "population": "White non-Hispanic respondents"
      },
      "id": "white",
      "label": "White non-Hispanic respondents"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}