{
  "alt": "Line chart of the Republican minus Democratic gap in optimism about the national economy by survey year, 1980 to 2024, on a background shaded by the party of the president. The gap is positive in every survey year under a Republican president, for example {fact:economy_gap_2020} standard deviations in 2020, and negative in every survey year under a Democratic president, for example {fact:economy_gap_2024} in 2024. The intervals for {fact:econ_miss_a} and {fact:econ_miss_b} include zero.",
  "caption": "The point estimate is above zero under a Republican president and below zero under a Democratic one in {fact:econ_match} of {fact:econ_readings} survey years, and the 95% interval excludes zero on that side in {fact:econ_ci_match}; the interval includes zero in {fact:econ_miss_a} and {fact:econ_miss_b}. A positive gap means Republican identifiers are more optimistic about the economy. Shaded bands mark presidencies, blue for a Democratic president and red for a Republican one: Carter to 1981, Reagan and Bush to 1993, Clinton to 2001, Bush to 2009, Obama to 2017, Trump to 2021 and Biden to 2025. Show data lists the president and party for each survey year.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": -0.146541,
      "conf_low": -0.353563,
      "estimate": -0.250052,
      "n": 1341,
      "president": "Carter",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 1980
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.691626,
      "conf_low": 0.439996,
      "estimate": 0.565811,
      "n": 1193,
      "president": "Reagan",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1982
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.941726,
      "conf_low": 0.779391,
      "estimate": 0.860558,
      "n": 1881,
      "president": "Reagan",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.510152,
      "conf_low": 0.325152,
      "estimate": 0.417652,
      "n": 1798,
      "president": "Reagan",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1986
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.649494,
      "conf_low": 0.466627,
      "estimate": 0.558061,
      "n": 1721,
      "president": "Reagan",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1988
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.167412,
      "conf_low": -0.0264845,
      "estimate": 0.0704637,
      "n": 1710,
      "president": "George H. W. Bush",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1990
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.566072,
      "conf_low": 0.389655,
      "estimate": 0.477863,
      "n": 2135,
      "president": "George H. W. Bush",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 1992
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.00250419,
      "conf_low": -0.216148,
      "estimate": -0.106822,
      "n": 1560,
      "president": "Clinton",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 1994
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.339433,
      "conf_low": -0.55941,
      "estimate": -0.449422,
      "n": 1537,
      "president": "Clinton",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 1996
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.217911,
      "conf_low": -0.473413,
      "estimate": -0.345662,
      "n": 1114,
      "president": "Clinton",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.402017,
      "conf_low": -0.614356,
      "estimate": -0.508187,
      "n": 1555,
      "president": "Clinton",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.470938,
      "conf_low": 0.208689,
      "estimate": 0.339814,
      "n": 1368,
      "president": "George W. Bush",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 1.04596,
      "conf_low": 0.805729,
      "estimate": 0.925843,
      "n": 1064,
      "president": "George W. Bush",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 2004
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.335355,
      "conf_low": 0.0994673,
      "estimate": 0.217411,
      "n": 2013,
      "president": "George W. Bush",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.90339,
      "conf_low": -1.03414,
      "estimate": -0.968762,
      "n": 5083,
      "president": "Obama",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 2012
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.756981,
      "conf_low": -0.89918,
      "estimate": -0.82808,
      "n": 3660,
      "president": "Obama",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.944643,
      "conf_low": 0.830987,
      "estimate": 0.887815,
      "n": 7254,
      "president": "Trump",
      "president_party": "Republican",
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "conf_high": -0.954908,
      "conf_low": -1.09488,
      "estimate": -1.02489,
      "n": 4877,
      "president": "Biden",
      "president_party": "Democratic",
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "id": "economy_gap",
  "notes": [
    "Presidential terms are from the historical record, not from the ANES. Each survey year is assigned the president recorded for that year in the ANES file."
  ],
  "source": "ANES Cumulative Data File, 1980-2024; weighted (VCF0009z; weight_ftf and weight_web for the mode views)",
  "spec": {
    "annotations": [
      {
        "type": "y-rule",
        "y": 0
      }
    ],
    "eras": "presidents",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "x": "year",
    "xDomain": [
      1978,
      2025
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Survey year",
    "y": "estimate",
    "yDomain": [
      -1.4,
      1.4
    ],
    "yFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "yLabel": "Republican minus Democratic optimism about the economy (SD)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Republican minus Democratic identifiers (leaners included) in standard deviations of the answer to whether the national economy got better over the past year, ANES 1980-2024, 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "year",
        "label": "Survey year"
      },
      {
        "key": "president",
        "label": "President"
      },
      {
        "key": "president_party",
        "label": "President's party"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Party gap (SD)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower 95% bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper 95% bound"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "The economic gap follows the president's party in all {fact:econ_readings} survey years",
  "type": "line",
  "width": "wide"
}