{
  "alt": "Dumbbell chart with one row per tradition-by-race group joining the 2008 Democratic share to the 2024 share with an interval at each end. Black Protestants go from {fact:lvv_2008_bp} to {fact:lvv_2024_bp}, Hispanic Catholics from {fact:lvv_2008_hc} to {fact:lvv_2024_hc}, white Catholics from {fact:lvv_2008_wc} to {fact:lvv_2024_wc}, white Protestants who are not born-again from {fact:lvv_2008_wml} to {fact:lvv_2024_wml} and white born-again Protestants from {fact:lvv_2008_wev} to {fact:lvv_2024_wev}. The 2024 dot lies to the left of the 2008 ring for each of these groups.",
  "caption": "Each of the five largest Christian groups moved toward the Republican candidate over the period, and the point estimates of the moves are largest among Hispanic Catholics and Black Protestants; the text tests the differences between the moves. The ring is 2008 and the dot the later election; a group is drawn when it meets the sample floor in both years, and the table gives the change with its interval.",
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      "later": "2024",
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      "share_later": 14.4796
    },
    {
      "change": -7.90374,
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    {
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      "group": "Black Protestants",
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
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      "later": "2016",
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      "later": "2016",
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      "share_later": 86.266
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    {
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      "group": "Orthodox Christian",
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    {
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      "group": "Buddhist or Hindu",
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      "later": "2016",
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    {
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      "later": "2016",
      "lo_2008": 75.0139,
      "lo_later": 67.0937,
      "n_2008": 4544,
      "n_later": 11528,
      "share_2008": 76.5346,
      "share_later": 68.2223
    },
    {
      "change": 1.54853,
      "change_hi": 3.49893,
      "change_lo": -0.401864,
      "group": "White born-again Protestants",
      "hi_2008": 22.059,
      "hi_later": 23.6485,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 19.342,
      "lo_later": 20.8496,
      "n_2008": 4399,
      "n_later": 7394,
      "share_2008": 20.7005,
      "share_later": 22.249
    },
    {
      "change": -3.07036,
      "change_hi": -0.473794,
      "change_lo": -5.66693,
      "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
      "hi_2008": 52.8121,
      "hi_later": 49.5273,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 48.9318,
      "lo_later": 46.0759,
      "n_2008": 3353,
      "n_later": 6327,
      "share_2008": 50.8719,
      "share_later": 47.8016
    },
    {
      "change": 2.53748,
      "change_hi": 5.37438,
      "change_lo": -0.299423,
      "group": "Black Protestants",
      "hi_2008": 95.9018,
      "hi_later": 97.2668,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 90.8925,
      "lo_later": 94.6025,
      "n_2008": 456,
      "n_later": 1979,
      "share_2008": 93.3971,
      "share_later": 95.9346
    },
    {
      "change": 10.3108,
      "change_hi": 20.7049,
      "change_lo": -0.0831726,
      "group": "Hispanic Protestants",
      "hi_2008": 44.1189,
      "hi_later": 53.6627,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 28.6725,
      "lo_later": 39.7504,
      "n_2008": 176,
      "n_later": 549,
      "share_2008": 36.3957,
      "share_later": 46.7066
    },
    {
      "change": 8.50193,
      "change_hi": 16.5145,
      "change_lo": 0.489366,
      "group": "Asian or other-race Protestants",
      "hi_2008": 34.8578,
      "hi_later": 43.5155,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 23.6832,
      "lo_later": 32.0293,
      "n_2008": 340,
      "n_later": 706,
      "share_2008": 29.2705,
      "share_later": 37.7724
    },
    {
      "change": -0.259314,
      "change_hi": 2.12706,
      "change_lo": -2.64568,
      "group": "White Catholics",
      "hi_2008": 45.306,
      "hi_later": 44.9839,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 41.8689,
      "lo_later": 41.6724,
      "n_2008": 4264,
      "n_later": 6570,
      "share_2008": 43.5875,
      "share_later": 43.3281
    },
    {
      "change": -0.550614,
      "change_hi": 5.44777,
      "change_lo": -6.549,
      "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
      "hi_2008": 74.5571,
      "hi_later": 73.7654,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 65.8365,
      "lo_later": 65.5269,
      "n_2008": 599,
      "n_later": 1191,
      "share_2008": 70.1968,
      "share_later": 69.6462
    },
    {
      "change": 1.62742,
      "change_hi": 8.15758,
      "change_lo": -4.90275,
      "group": "Black Catholics",
      "hi_2008": 99.6236,
      "hi_later": 100,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 89.2793,
      "lo_later": 92.0925,
      "n_2008": 94,
      "n_later": 195,
      "share_2008": 94.4515,
      "share_later": 96.0789
    },
    {
      "change": 0.286104,
      "change_hi": 12.2542,
      "change_lo": -11.682,
      "group": "Asian or other-race Catholics",
      "hi_2008": 57.3396,
      "hi_later": 57.4987,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 40.2876,
      "lo_later": 40.7007,
      "n_2008": 219,
      "n_later": 322,
      "share_2008": 48.8136,
      "share_later": 49.0997
    },
    {
      "change": -4.67923,
      "change_hi": 1.28141,
      "change_lo": -10.6399,
      "group": "Jewish",
      "hi_2008": 75.5716,
      "hi_later": 70.8635,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 67.1132,
      "lo_later": 62.4628,
      "n_2008": 552,
      "n_later": 1031,
      "share_2008": 71.3424,
      "share_later": 66.6631
    },
    {
      "change": -9.42976,
      "change_hi": -3.45507,
      "change_lo": -15.4044,
      "group": "Mormon",
      "hi_2008": 29.0666,
      "hi_later": 19.1495,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 20.1439,
      "lo_later": 11.2014,
      "n_2008": 465,
      "n_later": 681,
      "share_2008": 24.6053,
      "share_later": 15.1755
    },
    {
      "change": -14.8398,
      "change_hi": 0.0913871,
      "change_lo": -29.7711,
      "group": "Muslim",
      "hi_2008": 100,
      "hi_later": 94.5556,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 89.4266,
      "lo_later": 67.7216,
      "n_2008": 50,
      "n_later": 69,
      "share_2008": 95.9785,
      "share_later": 81.1386
    },
    {
      "change": -1.60342,
      "change_hi": 14.3941,
      "change_lo": -17.601,
      "group": "Orthodox Christian",
      "hi_2008": 63.2104,
      "hi_later": 61.3745,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 40.3551,
      "lo_later": 38.9842,
      "n_2008": 91,
      "n_later": 167,
      "share_2008": 51.7827,
      "share_later": 50.1793
    },
    {
      "change": -4.30269,
      "change_hi": 3.44975,
      "change_lo": -12.0551,
      "group": "Buddhist or Hindu",
      "hi_2008": 96.3107,
      "hi_later": 92.5947,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 85.9495,
      "lo_later": 81.0601,
      "n_2008": 150,
      "n_later": 316,
      "share_2008": 91.1301,
      "share_later": 86.8274
    },
    {
      "change": 5.89492,
      "change_hi": 9.88584,
      "change_lo": 1.904,
      "group": "Another religion or something else",
      "hi_2008": 60.3845,
      "hi_later": 67.7378,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 56.3906,
      "lo_later": 60.8271,
      "n_2008": 3778,
      "n_later": 1777,
      "share_2008": 58.3875,
      "share_later": 64.2824
    },
    {
      "change": -2.92835,
      "change_hi": -0.824013,
      "change_lo": -5.0327,
      "group": "Unaffiliated",
      "hi_2008": 78.0553,
      "hi_later": 75.0608,
      "later": "2012",
      "lo_2008": 75.0139,
      "lo_later": 72.1516,
      "n_2008": 4544,
      "n_later": 8449,
      "share_2008": 76.5346,
      "share_later": 73.6062
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_change",
  "notes": [
    "In the default view, 2008 and 2024, Mormon voters are the one group whose point estimate rose by more than a few points, and the interval of the change includes zero; in the other views other groups rise. A cell is drawn only when it has at least {fact:floor_n} respondents and an effective sample of at least {fact:floor_n}.",
    "Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so they cover sampling error and not how respondents were recruited."
  ],
  "source": "Cooperative Election Study, presidential years 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "hi1": "hi_2008",
    "hi2": "hi_later",
    "label1": "2008",
    "label2": "2024",
    "lo1": "lo_2008",
    "lo2": "lo_later",
    "n1": "n_2008",
    "n2": "n_later",
    "reference": 50,
    "referenceLabel": "Even split",
    "sort": "desc",
    "x1": "share_2008",
    "x2": "share_later",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote (%)",
    "y": "group"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote by tradition and race, reported voters, percent, 2008 and a later election (the buttons switch the later election); 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "later",
        "label": "Later election"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_2008",
        "label": "Share 2008 (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "lo_2008",
        "label": "Lower 2008"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "hi_2008",
        "label": "Upper 2008"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_2008",
        "label": "Respondents 2008"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "share_later",
        "label": "Share later (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "lo_later",
        "label": "Lower later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "hi_later",
        "label": "Upper later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n_later",
        "label": "Respondents later"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "change",
        "label": "Change (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "change_lo",
        "label": "Lower change"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "change_hi",
        "label": "Upper change"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "From 2008 to 2024 the Democratic share changed by {fact:ch_hc_2008_2024} points among Hispanic Catholics and {fact:ch_bp_2008_2024} among Black Protestants, against {fact:ch_wev_2008_2024} among white born-again Protestants and {fact:ch_wc_2008_2024} among white Catholics",
  "type": "dumbbell",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "later": "2024"
      },
      "id": "2024",
      "label": "2008 and 2024",
      "spec": {
        "label2": "2024"
      }
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "later": "2020"
      },
      "id": "2020",
      "label": "2008 and 2020",
      "spec": {
        "label2": "2020"
      }
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "later": "2016"
      },
      "id": "2016",
      "label": "2008 and 2016",
      "spec": {
        "label2": "2016"
      }
    },
    {
      "filter": {
        "later": "2012"
      },
      "id": "2012",
      "label": "2008 and 2012",
      "spec": {
        "label2": "2012"
      }
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}