{
  "alt": "Dot chart with a confidence interval for each of the religious tradition and race groups, sorted from the highest Democratic share to the lowest. Black Protestants are highest at {fact:lvv_2024_bp}, unaffiliated voters are at {fact:lvv_2024_una}, Hispanic Catholics at {fact:lvv_2024_hc}, white Protestants who are not born-again at {fact:lvv_2024_wml}, white Catholics at {fact:lvv_2024_wc} and white born-again Protestants lowest at {fact:lvv_2024_wev}. Small groups such as Muslim and Orthodox Christian voters have wide intervals.",
  "caption": "The groups run from {fact:lvv_2024_wev} to {fact:lvv_2024_bp} Democratic, and inside each large Christian family the vote differs by race: Black and white Protestants, Hispanic and white Catholics. Each dot is a weighted share with a 95% interval, and the colour marks the tradition family. White means non-Hispanic white.",
  "data": [
    {
      "ci_width": 5.65821,
      "conf_high": 85.9521,
      "conf_low": 80.2939,
      "estimate": 83.123,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Black Protestants",
      "n": 1889,
      "pop_share": 4.74354,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 17.6546,
      "conf_high": 84.8126,
      "conf_low": 67.158,
      "estimate": 75.9853,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Black Catholics",
      "n": 260,
      "pop_share": 0.647124,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 13.7214,
      "conf_high": 78.5017,
      "conf_low": 64.7802,
      "estimate": 71.6409,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Buddhist or Hindu",
      "n": 431,
      "pop_share": 1.07976,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 2.43871,
      "conf_high": 72.1523,
      "conf_low": 69.7136,
      "estimate": 70.9329,
      "family": "Unaffiliated",
      "group": "Unaffiliated",
      "n": 14311,
      "pop_share": 31.0379,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 8.08139,
      "conf_high": 72.0696,
      "conf_low": 63.9882,
      "estimate": 68.0289,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Jewish",
      "n": 1219,
      "pop_share": 2.67485,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 26.3089,
      "conf_high": 79.0126,
      "conf_low": 52.7037,
      "estimate": 65.8582,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Muslim",
      "n": 139,
      "pop_share": 0.464405,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 9.05759,
      "conf_high": 61.5259,
      "conf_low": 52.4683,
      "estimate": 56.9971,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
      "n": 1351,
      "pop_share": 3.9609,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 16.6909,
      "conf_high": 53.7114,
      "conf_low": 37.0205,
      "estimate": 45.3659,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Catholics",
      "n": 388,
      "pop_share": 1.22121,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 6.15764,
      "conf_high": 46.9392,
      "conf_low": 40.7816,
      "estimate": 43.8604,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Another religion or something else",
      "n": 3082,
      "pop_share": 7.70333,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 3.97908,
      "conf_high": 44.9577,
      "conf_low": 40.9787,
      "estimate": 42.9682,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
      "n": 4979,
      "pop_share": 9.92085,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 3.54542,
      "conf_high": 38.9057,
      "conf_low": 35.3603,
      "estimate": 37.133,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "White Catholics",
      "n": 5974,
      "pop_share": 12.683,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 11.6702,
      "conf_high": 38.9235,
      "conf_low": 27.2534,
      "estimate": 33.0884,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Hispanic Protestants",
      "n": 646,
      "pop_share": 2.08921,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 12.5295,
      "conf_high": 37.3609,
      "conf_low": 24.8314,
      "estimate": 31.0962,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Mormon",
      "n": 438,
      "pop_share": 1.13227,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 22.3048,
      "conf_high": 42.0477,
      "conf_low": 19.7429,
      "estimate": 30.8953,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Orthodox Christian",
      "n": 197,
      "pop_share": 0.467867,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 10.9329,
      "conf_high": 35.8889,
      "conf_low": 24.956,
      "estimate": 30.4225,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Protestants",
      "n": 699,
      "pop_share": 2.06599,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 2.48152,
      "conf_high": 15.7203,
      "conf_low": 13.2388,
      "estimate": 14.4796,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White born-again Protestants",
      "n": 5987,
      "pop_share": 18.0752,
      "view": "vote2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 1.82474,
      "conf_high": 92.2701,
      "conf_low": 90.4453,
      "estimate": 91.3577,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Black Protestants",
      "n": 8852,
      "pop_share": 4.96204,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 5.76553,
      "conf_high": 91.3058,
      "conf_low": 85.5403,
      "estimate": 88.4231,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Black Catholics",
      "n": 1105,
      "pop_share": 0.64328,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 9.49499,
      "conf_high": 86.1723,
      "conf_low": 76.6773,
      "estimate": 81.4248,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Muslim",
      "n": 600,
      "pop_share": 0.380172,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 5.41171,
      "conf_high": 81.5676,
      "conf_low": 76.1559,
      "estimate": 78.8617,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Buddhist or Hindu",
      "n": 1827,
      "pop_share": 0.920821,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 1.12673,
      "conf_high": 72.7717,
      "conf_low": 71.645,
      "estimate": 72.2083,
      "family": "Unaffiliated",
      "group": "Unaffiliated",
      "n": 53647,
      "pop_share": 26.8235,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 3.27381,
      "conf_high": 71.4132,
      "conf_low": 68.1394,
      "estimate": 69.7763,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Jewish",
      "n": 5325,
      "pop_share": 2.43027,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 3.77658,
      "conf_high": 68.8431,
      "conf_low": 65.0665,
      "estimate": 66.9548,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
      "n": 6487,
      "pop_share": 3.78811,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 2.47378,
      "conf_high": 56.656,
      "conf_low": 54.1822,
      "estimate": 55.4191,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Another religion or something else",
      "n": 13375,
      "pop_share": 8.48991,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 7.12679,
      "conf_high": 53.1309,
      "conf_low": 46.0041,
      "estimate": 49.5675,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Catholics",
      "n": 1706,
      "pop_share": 0.946187,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 1.60452,
      "conf_high": 47.235,
      "conf_low": 45.6305,
      "estimate": 46.4327,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
      "n": 25359,
      "pop_share": 11.9593,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 5.86037,
      "conf_high": 45.8792,
      "conf_low": 40.0189,
      "estimate": 42.949,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Hispanic Protestants",
      "n": 2923,
      "pop_share": 1.58912,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 9.54701,
      "conf_high": 46.9139,
      "conf_low": 37.3669,
      "estimate": 42.1404,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Orthodox Christian",
      "n": 879,
      "pop_share": 0.456574,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 1.45179,
      "conf_high": 42.0777,
      "conf_low": 40.6259,
      "estimate": 41.3518,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "White Catholics",
      "n": 29810,
      "pop_share": 14.8167,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 4.89022,
      "conf_high": 37.2666,
      "conf_low": 32.3764,
      "estimate": 34.8215,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Protestants",
      "n": 3172,
      "pop_share": 1.74555,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 4.52155,
      "conf_high": 26.7425,
      "conf_low": 22.2209,
      "estimate": 24.4817,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Mormon",
      "n": 2527,
      "pop_share": 1.50069,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 1.13322,
      "conf_high": 18.7122,
      "conf_low": 17.579,
      "estimate": 18.1456,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White born-again Protestants",
      "n": 30356,
      "pop_share": 18.4171,
      "view": "votepool"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 4.72444,
      "conf_high": 88.6243,
      "conf_low": 83.8998,
      "estimate": 86.262,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Black Protestants",
      "n": 3072,
      "pop_share": 5.30846,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 14.8772,
      "conf_high": 88.1289,
      "conf_low": 73.2517,
      "estimate": 80.6903,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Black Catholics",
      "n": 427,
      "pop_share": 0.820454,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 12.0282,
      "conf_high": 78.8244,
      "conf_low": 66.7962,
      "estimate": 72.8103,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Buddhist or Hindu",
      "n": 604,
      "pop_share": 1.30496,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 2.37242,
      "conf_high": 72.7479,
      "conf_low": 70.3755,
      "estimate": 71.5617,
      "family": "Unaffiliated",
      "group": "Unaffiliated",
      "n": 17677,
      "pop_share": 31.962,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 8.19423,
      "conf_high": 72.991,
      "conf_low": 64.7967,
      "estimate": 68.8939,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Jewish",
      "n": 1353,
      "pop_share": 2.48018,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 19.769,
      "conf_high": 74.6001,
      "conf_low": 54.8311,
      "estimate": 64.7156,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Muslim",
      "n": 300,
      "pop_share": 0.63067,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 7.77942,
      "conf_high": 67.3304,
      "conf_low": 59.5509,
      "estimate": 63.4406,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
      "n": 2325,
      "pop_share": 4.84684,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 16.1871,
      "conf_high": 56.8637,
      "conf_low": 40.6766,
      "estimate": 48.7702,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Catholics",
      "n": 482,
      "pop_share": 1.24498,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 5.99648,
      "conf_high": 49.1429,
      "conf_low": 43.1464,
      "estimate": 46.1446,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Another religion or something else",
      "n": 3770,
      "pop_share": 7.57878,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 4.08591,
      "conf_high": 44.888,
      "conf_low": 40.8021,
      "estimate": 42.845,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
      "n": 5297,
      "pop_share": 9.17178,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 3.71238,
      "conf_high": 39.4399,
      "conf_low": 35.7275,
      "estimate": 37.5837,
      "family": "Catholic",
      "group": "White Catholics",
      "n": 6296,
      "pop_share": 11.6347,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 11.0356,
      "conf_high": 43.0066,
      "conf_low": 31.971,
      "estimate": 37.4888,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Hispanic Protestants",
      "n": 1109,
      "pop_share": 2.48291,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 23.6965,
      "conf_high": 49.1349,
      "conf_low": 25.4384,
      "estimate": 37.2866,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Orthodox Christian",
      "n": 257,
      "pop_share": 0.566473,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 11.4913,
      "conf_high": 39.7273,
      "conf_low": 28.2361,
      "estimate": 33.9817,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "Asian or other-race Protestants",
      "n": 825,
      "pop_share": 1.91747,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 12.0743,
      "conf_high": 36.3361,
      "conf_low": 24.2618,
      "estimate": 30.299,
      "family": "Other religion",
      "group": "Mormon",
      "n": 523,
      "pop_share": 1.12293,
      "view": "party2024"
    },
    {
      "ci_width": 2.48237,
      "conf_high": 14.9697,
      "conf_low": 12.4874,
      "estimate": 13.7285,
      "family": "Protestant",
      "group": "White born-again Protestants",
      "n": 6484,
      "pop_share": 16.8279,
      "view": "party2024"
    }
  ],
  "id": "vote_by_group",
  "notes": [
    "White born-again Protestants and white Protestants who are not born-again are the white Protestants who do and do not call themselves born-again or evangelical, because the CES file has no denomination; the last figure compares this coding with denominational codings. Black, Hispanic and Asian or other-race Protestants and the Catholic groups are not split further.",
    "The interval width is in the data table. A cell is drawn only when it has at least {fact:floor_n} respondents and an effective sample of at least {fact:floor_n}. Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample. The CES is an opt-in online panel, so they cover sampling error and not how respondents were recruited."
  ],
  "source": "Cooperative Election Study, presidential years 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024; weighted (weight_cumulative)",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Catholic": "cat2",
      "Other religion": "cat3",
      "Protestant": "cat1",
      "Unaffiliated": "cat4"
    },
    "group": "family",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 50,
    "referenceLabel": "Even split",
    "sort": "desc",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      0,
      100
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 0
    },
    "xLabel": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote (%)",
    "y": "group"
  },
  "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote by religious tradition and race, reported voters, percent, 2024 (buttons: five elections pooled, and party identification); 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "view",
        "label": "View"
      },
      {
        "key": "group",
        "label": "Group"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Democratic share (%)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Lower"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Upper"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "ci_width",
        "label": "Interval width (points)"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Respondents"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 1
        },
        "key": "pop_share",
        "label": "Group share of the sample (%)"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "In 2024 the Democratic share of the two-party vote ran from {fact:lvv_2024_wev} among white born-again Protestants to {fact:lvv_2024_bp} among Black Protestants",
  "type": "dot",
  "views": [
    {
      "filter": {
        "view": "vote2024"
      },
      "id": "vote2024",
      "label": "Presidential vote, 2024"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The order of the largest groups is the same as in 2024, and every pooled interval is narrower than the interval for 2024. Each dot is a weighted Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in the CES presidential years 2008 to 2024 pooled, with a 95% interval.",
      "filter": {
        "view": "votepool"
      },
      "id": "votepool",
      "label": "Presidential vote, 2008 to 2024",
      "spec": {
        "xLabel": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote (%)"
      },
      "title": "Pooled over five elections, the Democratic share ran from {fact:lvv_pool_wev} among white born-again Protestants to {fact:lvv_pool_bp} among Black Protestants"
    },
    {
      "caption": "The Democratic share of party identifiers, leaners counted with their party, orders the six largest groups as the vote does. Each dot is a weighted share among respondents who identify with or lean toward a party, with a 95% interval.",
      "filter": {
        "view": "party2024"
      },
      "id": "party2024",
      "label": "Party identification, 2024",
      "spec": {
        "xLabel": "Democratic share of party identifiers (%)"
      },
      "title": "Party identification gives the same order in 2024, from {fact:lvp_2024_wev} Democratic among white born-again Protestants to {fact:lvp_2024_bp} among Black Protestants"
    }
  ],
  "width": "wide"
}