{
  "alt": "Two panels. The first is a dot chart of 2024 Democratic shares in the CES and the ANES for six groups, with the ANES dot to the right of the CES dot for white Protestants who are not born-again. The second is a dot chart of the seldom-minus-frequent gap for the evangelical and the mainline group of white Protestants in six survey-and-coding rows, with the mainline CES rows below zero and the other mainline rows including zero.",
  "caption": "The first tab compares levels in 2024 and the second compares attendance gaps. Under the CES born-again rule and under the denominational codings of the GSS (RELTRAD) and the ANES (its major-group summary), the evangelical or born-again group shows a positive gap, and the sign of the gap in the mainline or not-born-again group depends on the survey.",
  "data": [],
  "id": "coding_and_survey_checks",
  "notes": [
    "The CES rule puts white Protestants who call themselves born-again or evangelical in the evangelical group and the others in the mainline group. The GSS RELTRAD rows use denomination, the ANES summary rows use the ANES major-group religion summary (V241445x), and the born-again rows in the GSS and the ANES apply the CES rule to those surveys. This chapter has not checked the ANES summary against RELTRAD. In the GSS, {fact:gss_agree} of white Protestants with a born-again answer and a party identification fall in the same group under RELTRAD and the born-again rule, counting respondents RELTRAD cannot place as disagreeing and leaving out pure independents; among those RELTRAD places in the evangelical or mainline tradition the share is {fact:gss_agree_placed}.",
    "Among white Protestants whom RELTRAD places in the evangelical or mainline tradition, {fact:gss_nb_ev} of those who are not born-again are RELTRAD evangelical and {fact:gss_ba_ml} of those who are born-again are RELTRAD mainline.",
    "GSS rows cover the surveys of 2006 to 2018, in all interview modes those surveys used, which include some telephone interviews; the CES rows cover the five presidential elections, and the ANES rows 2024, which mixed in-person, web and mail-return samples under one post-election weight. Frequent in the GSS is nearly weekly or more and in the ANES weekly or almost weekly, one answer wider than the CES. A cell is drawn only when it has at least {fact:floor_n} respondents and an effective sample of at least {fact:floor_n}. Intervals are 95% intervals from the Kish effective sample size and treat the weighted sample as a simple random sample."
  ],
  "source": "Cooperative Election Study, 2008-2024; General Social Survey, 2006-2018; ANES 2024 Time Series; weighted (weight_cumulative, weight_use and V240107b)",
  "spec": {
    "panels": [
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot chart with two dots for each of six groups, one for the CES and one for the ANES, with intervals. The ANES dot is to the right of the CES dot for every group, by the most for white Protestants who are not born-again and Hispanic Catholics, and the two surveys put white born-again Protestants lowest and Black Protestants highest.",
          "caption": "White Protestants who are not born-again are {fact:an_wml} Democratic in the ANES and {fact:lvv_2024_wml} in the CES, and the intervals do not overlap. Each dot is a weighted share with a 95% interval, in the 2024 CES and the 2024 ANES Time Series.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 15.7203,
              "conf_low": 13.2388,
              "estimate": 14.4796,
              "group": "White born-again Protestants",
              "n": 5987,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 25.9983,
              "conf_low": 15.7053,
              "estimate": 20.8518,
              "group": "White born-again Protestants",
              "n": 497,
              "survey": "ANES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 44.9577,
              "conf_low": 40.9787,
              "estimate": 42.9682,
              "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
              "n": 4979,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 62.3154,
              "conf_low": 49.9324,
              "estimate": 56.1239,
              "group": "White Protestants who are not born-again",
              "n": 478,
              "survey": "ANES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 85.9521,
              "conf_low": 80.2939,
              "estimate": 83.123,
              "group": "Black Protestants",
              "n": 1889,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 96.3178,
              "conf_low": 84.0437,
              "estimate": 90.1807,
              "group": "Black Protestants",
              "n": 179,
              "survey": "ANES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 38.9057,
              "conf_low": 35.3603,
              "estimate": 37.133,
              "group": "White Catholics",
              "n": 5974,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 50.5444,
              "conf_low": 38.2341,
              "estimate": 44.3893,
              "group": "White Catholics",
              "n": 540,
              "survey": "ANES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 61.5259,
              "conf_low": 52.4683,
              "estimate": 56.9971,
              "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
              "n": 1351,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 83.0634,
              "conf_low": 59.8611,
              "estimate": 71.4623,
              "group": "Hispanic Catholics",
              "n": 123,
              "survey": "ANES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 72.1523,
              "conf_low": 69.7136,
              "estimate": 70.9329,
              "group": "Unaffiliated",
              "n": 14311,
              "survey": "CES"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 82.5297,
              "conf_low": 74.5708,
              "estimate": 78.5503,
              "group": "Unaffiliated",
              "n": 854,
              "survey": "ANES"
            }
          ],
          "id": "survey_levels_2024",
          "spec": {
            "colors": {
              "ANES": "cat3",
              "CES": "cat1"
            },
            "group": "survey",
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "reference": 50,
            "referenceLabel": "Even split",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              0,
              100
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 0
            },
            "xLabel": "Democratic share of the two-party vote (%)",
            "y": "group"
          },
          "subtitle": "Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, reported voters, percent, 2024; white Protestants are split by the born-again rule in both surveys; 95% intervals",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "group",
                "label": "Group"
              },
              {
                "key": "survey",
                "label": "Survey"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "estimate",
                "label": "Democratic share (%)"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "conf_low",
                "label": "Lower"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "conf_high",
                "label": "Upper"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n",
                "label": "Respondents"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "In 2024 the ANES places each of six groups above the CES, most for white Protestants who are not born-again and Hispanic Catholics, and the two surveys order the groups identically",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "Levels in 2024"
      },
      {
        "figure": {
          "alt": "Dot chart in two panels, the evangelical and the mainline group of white Protestants, with six rows each for survey and coding and an interval on each. Every row of the evangelical group has a positive point estimate. The two CES rows of the mainline group are below zero, at {fact:ck_ces_vote_wml} and {fact:ck_ces_party_wml}, and the GSS and ANES rows have intervals that include zero.",
          "caption": "The gap in the evangelical group has a positive point estimate in every row and an interval above zero in every row except the ANES born-again row, and the gap in the mainline group is below zero in the two CES rows and has an interval that includes zero in the four GSS and ANES rows. Each dot is a gap with a 95% interval; rows differ in survey, outcome (vote or party identification) and the rule that defines the group, which is the born-again rule or a denominational coding.",
          "data": [
            {
              "conf_high": 11.426,
              "conf_low": 8.74766,
              "estimate": 10.0868,
              "level": 18.1456,
              "level_hi": 18.7122,
              "level_lo": 17.579,
              "n": 27185,
              "n_level": 30356,
              "source": "CES vote, born-again rule",
              "survey": "CES",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -3.39139,
              "conf_low": -7.50076,
              "estimate": -5.44607,
              "level": 46.4327,
              "level_hi": 47.235,
              "level_lo": 45.6305,
              "n": 22658,
              "n_level": 25359,
              "source": "CES vote, born-again rule",
              "survey": "CES",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 12.5266,
              "conf_low": 9.86702,
              "estimate": 11.1968,
              "level": 19.8243,
              "level_hi": 20.3929,
              "level_lo": 19.2557,
              "n": 30518,
              "n_level": 34215,
              "source": "CES party, born-again rule",
              "survey": "CES",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": -1.65969,
              "conf_low": -5.75781,
              "estimate": -3.70875,
              "level": 46.6634,
              "level_hi": 47.4546,
              "level_lo": 45.8722,
              "n": 24495,
              "n_level": 27509,
              "source": "CES party, born-again rule",
              "survey": "CES",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 24.0543,
              "conf_low": 14.5639,
              "estimate": 19.3091,
              "level": 31.3059,
              "level_hi": 33.4529,
              "level_lo": 29.1588,
              "n": 2134,
              "n_level": 2527,
              "source": "GSS party, RELTRAD",
              "survey": "GSS",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 9.3946,
              "conf_low": -3.75015,
              "estimate": 2.82223,
              "level": 40.789,
              "level_hi": 43.6859,
              "level_lo": 37.8921,
              "n": 1343,
              "n_level": 1656,
              "source": "GSS party, RELTRAD",
              "survey": "GSS",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 21.8721,
              "conf_low": 12.6666,
              "estimate": 17.2694,
              "level": 29.9851,
              "level_hi": 32.0278,
              "level_lo": 27.9425,
              "n": 2354,
              "n_level": 2764,
              "source": "GSS party, born-again rule",
              "survey": "GSS",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 12.0068,
              "conf_low": -0.519252,
              "estimate": 5.74376,
              "level": 43.4345,
              "level_hi": 46.0137,
              "level_lo": 40.8554,
              "n": 1743,
              "n_level": 2074,
              "source": "GSS party, born-again rule",
              "survey": "GSS",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 23.7898,
              "conf_low": 0.0973304,
              "estimate": 11.9436,
              "level": 18.9757,
              "level_hi": 24.206,
              "level_lo": 13.7453,
              "n": 378,
              "n_level": 412,
              "source": "ANES vote, ANES summary",
              "survey": "ANES 2024",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 26.6011,
              "conf_low": -3.41602,
              "estimate": 11.5926,
              "level": 57.5577,
              "level_hi": 64.1113,
              "level_lo": 51.0041,
              "n": 396,
              "n_level": 456,
              "source": "ANES vote, ANES summary",
              "survey": "ANES 2024",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 20.0656,
              "conf_low": -3.55466,
              "estimate": 8.25547,
              "level": 20.8518,
              "level_hi": 25.9983,
              "level_lo": 15.7053,
              "n": 451,
              "n_level": 497,
              "source": "ANES vote, born-again rule",
              "survey": "ANES 2024",
              "tradition": "Born-again or evangelical white Protestants"
            },
            {
              "conf_high": 20.3477,
              "conf_low": -7.92872,
              "estimate": 6.20951,
              "level": 56.1239,
              "level_hi": 62.3154,
              "level_lo": 49.9324,
              "n": 421,
              "n_level": 478,
              "source": "ANES vote, born-again rule",
              "survey": "ANES 2024",
              "tradition": "Not born-again or mainline white Protestants"
            }
          ],
          "id": "gradient_by_coding",
          "spec": {
            "colors": {
              "ANES 2024": "cat3",
              "CES": "cat1",
              "GSS": "cat2"
            },
            "facet": "tradition",
            "facetColumns": 2,
            "group": "survey",
            "hi": "conf_high",
            "legend": false,
            "lo": "conf_low",
            "n": "n",
            "reference": 0,
            "referenceLabel": "No gap",
            "sort": "data",
            "x": "estimate",
            "xDomain": [
              -20,
              40
            ],
            "xFormat": {
              "digits": 0
            },
            "xLabel": "Seldom minus frequent attenders (percentage points)",
            "y": "source"
          },
          "subtitle": "Seldom minus frequent attenders in the Democratic share, percentage points, for the evangelical and the mainline group of white Protestants, by survey and coding; 95% intervals",
          "table": {
            "columns": [
              {
                "key": "tradition",
                "label": "Group"
              },
              {
                "key": "source",
                "label": "Survey and coding"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "estimate",
                "label": "Gap (points)"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "conf_low",
                "label": "Lower"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "conf_high",
                "label": "Upper"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n",
                "label": "Frequent and seldom respondents"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "level",
                "label": "Democratic share, all attendance (%)"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "level_lo",
                "label": "Lower"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "digits": 1
                },
                "key": "level_hi",
                "label": "Upper"
              },
              {
                "format": {
                  "thousands": true
                },
                "key": "n_level",
                "label": "Respondents in the group"
              }
            ]
          },
          "title": "The attendance gap among born-again or evangelical white Protestants has a positive point estimate under every coding and survey, and among not born-again or mainline white Protestants it is negative only in the CES",
          "type": "dot"
        },
        "label": "Attendance gap by coding"
      }
    ]
  },
  "subtitle": "Two checks on the CES tradition-by-race coding: 2024 levels in the CES and the ANES Time Series, and the attendance gap for white Protestants under each survey and coding",
  "title": "The ANES and the CES differ by {fact:ck_wml_diff} points for white Protestants who are not born-again in 2024, and only the CES puts their attendance gap below zero",
  "type": "tabs",
  "width": "wide"
}