{
  "alt": "Histogram of the spread of precinct margins in {fact:near_n} near-tied counties, with a peak near the median of {fact:near_median_sd} points and a right tail past {fact:cut_sd} points.",
  "caption": "Most near-tied counties ({fact:near_share_mid} of the {fact:near_n}) have a spread between {fact:cut_mid_lo} and {fact:cut_sd} points, and a tail runs past {fact:cut_sd}, the spread of a county split evenly between Democratic +{fact:cut_sd} and Republican +{fact:cut_sd} precincts. The median is {fact:near_median_sd} points. Bucks County, with a spread of {fact:bucks_sd}, is in the lowest bin, and Centre County ({fact:centre_sd}) is past the dashed line. A county whose voters were assigned to precincts at random would show a spread of about {fact:near_floor} points in the median case.",
  "data": [
    {
      "n": 11,
      "share": 9.90991,
      "x0": 10,
      "x1": 15
    },
    {
      "n": 21,
      "share": 18.9189,
      "x0": 15,
      "x1": 20
    },
    {
      "n": 34,
      "share": 30.6306,
      "x0": 20,
      "x1": 25
    },
    {
      "n": 16,
      "share": 14.4144,
      "x0": 25,
      "x1": 30
    },
    {
      "n": 11,
      "share": 9.90991,
      "x0": 30,
      "x1": 35
    },
    {
      "n": 11,
      "share": 9.90991,
      "x0": 35,
      "x1": 40
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "share": 4.5045,
      "x0": 40,
      "x1": 45
    },
    {
      "n": 1,
      "share": 0.900901,
      "x0": 45,
      "x1": 50
    },
    {
      "n": 0,
      "share": 0,
      "x0": 50,
      "x1": 55
    },
    {
      "n": 1,
      "share": 0.900901,
      "x0": 55,
      "x1": 60
    }
  ],
  "id": "near_tied_sd",
  "notes": [
    "The number in the tooltip is the number of counties in the bin.",
    "Full counts of votes: there is no sampling, so the shares carry no confidence interval."
  ],
  "source": "MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct-level presidential returns; county totals summed from the precincts; full counts of votes, not survey estimates, so nothing is weighted except by two-party votes where stated",
  "spec": {
    "reference": 30,
    "referenceLabel": "Spread of 30 points",
    "x0": "x0",
    "x1": "x1",
    "xLabel": "Spread of precinct margins inside the county (points of margin)",
    "y": "share",
    "yLabel": "Share of near-tied counties (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share of the near-tied counties in each {fact:sd_bin_width}-point bin of spread of precinct margins, 2024; margin under {fact:cut_near} points and at least {fact:cut_near_units} precincts",
  "title": "Near-tied counties differ widely in how much their precinct margins vary",
  "type": "histogram",
  "width": "body"
}