{
  "alt": "Three groups of horizontal bars, each with precincts, counties and simulated precincts. Precincts have the largest share of votes in places decided by {fact:cut_land} points or more ({fact:share_land_precinct}, against {fact:share_land_county} for counties and {fact:share_land_random} simulated) and in places decided by {fact:cut_deep} points or more ({fact:share_deep_precinct}, against {fact:share_deep_county} and {fact:share_deep_random}), and the smallest share in places decided by under {fact:cut_comp} points ({fact:share_comp_precinct}, against {fact:share_comp_county} and {fact:share_comp_random}). The simulated bars sit close to the county bars.",
  "caption": "Compare the precinct bar with the other two in each group: precincts hold more of the votes in landslides and fewer in close contests. A margin of {fact:cut_land} points gives the winner {fact:land_equiv} of the two-party vote, {fact:cut_deep} points or more is very lopsided, and under {fact:cut_comp} points gives the winner under {fact:comp_equiv}. In the simulation each precinct keeps its number of votes and its county's Democratic share, its Democratic votes are drawn at random, and the bar is the mean of {fact:n_sim} runs.",
  "data": [
    {
      "band": "Under 10 points",
      "share": 18.5158,
      "unit": "Precincts"
    },
    {
      "band": "Under 10 points",
      "share": 23.1311,
      "unit": "Counties"
    },
    {
      "band": "Under 10 points",
      "share": 23.3168,
      "unit": "Simulated precincts"
    },
    {
      "band": "20 points or more",
      "share": 64.9747,
      "unit": "Precincts"
    },
    {
      "band": "20 points or more",
      "share": 57.2467,
      "unit": "Counties"
    },
    {
      "band": "20 points or more",
      "share": 56.5759,
      "unit": "Simulated precincts"
    },
    {
      "band": "40 points or more",
      "share": 36.3665,
      "unit": "Precincts"
    },
    {
      "band": "40 points or more",
      "share": 25.3789,
      "unit": "Counties"
    },
    {
      "band": "40 points or more",
      "share": 24.9578,
      "unit": "Simulated precincts"
    }
  ],
  "id": "landslide_shares",
  "notes": [
    "Full counts of votes: there is no sampling, so the shares carry no confidence interval.",
    "The simulated bars are means over {fact:n_sim} runs and move by at most {fact:sim_range} points across runs.",
    "The sample is {fact:n_units} reporting units in {fact:n_counties} counties: Alaska, the {fact:n_out_la} Louisiana parishes and {fact:n_out_other} other counties whose precinct rows do not match the certified total are left out."
  ],
  "source": "MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct-level presidential returns; county totals summed from the precincts; full counts of votes, not survey estimates, so nothing is weighted except by two-party votes where stated",
  "spec": {
    "category": "band",
    "colors": {
      "Counties": "cat2",
      "Precincts": "cat1",
      "Simulated precincts": "muted"
    },
    "domain": [
      0,
      80
    ],
    "format": {
      "digits": 1
    },
    "group": "unit",
    "orientation": "h",
    "sort": "data",
    "value": "share",
    "valueLabel": "Share of two-party votes (%)"
  },
  "subtitle": "Share of 2024 two-party presidential votes cast in units decided by each margin, in percent of votes",
  "title": "Precincts are more often lopsided, and less often close, than counties or than random assignment of voters would make them",
  "type": "bar",
  "width": "body"
}