{
  "alt": "Six dots with intervals in two panels, vote-weighted and unweighted, each showing the correlation of spread with Democratic lean with no controls, with size fixed, and with size and state fixed. All six are positive with intervals that exclude zero. Vote-weighted, the correlation is {fact:r_lean_raw}, {fact:r_lean_size} and {fact:r_lean_fe}. Counting each county once it is {fact:r_lean_unw} with no controls and {fact:r_lean_unw_fe} with size and state fixed.",
  "caption": "Every interval is above zero, weighted or not, and controls for county size lower the correlation. Each dot is a correlation across counties. Vote-weighted counts each county in proportion to its two-party votes; unweighted counts each county once. Size fixed removes the linear effect of the log of two-party votes and the log of the number of precincts; state fixed compares counties within the same state. Intervals come from a county bootstrap.",
  "data": [
    {
      "conf_high": 0.493709,
      "conf_low": 0.329721,
      "estimate": 0.412496,
      "label": "No controls",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.298072,
      "conf_low": 0.120701,
      "estimate": 0.208768,
      "label": "Size fixed",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.365275,
      "conf_low": 0.190545,
      "estimate": 0.275356,
      "label": "Size and state fixed",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Vote-weighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.564518,
      "conf_low": 0.506459,
      "estimate": 0.535262,
      "label": "No controls",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Unweighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.498389,
      "conf_low": 0.427572,
      "estimate": 0.464439,
      "label": "Size fixed",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Unweighted"
    },
    {
      "conf_high": 0.509567,
      "conf_low": 0.429701,
      "estimate": 0.468647,
      "label": "Size and state fixed",
      "n": 2853,
      "weighting": "Unweighted"
    }
  ],
  "id": "dispersion_partials",
  "notes": [
    "Each interval resamples counties {fact:n_boot} times; a full count has no sampling error, so the interval says how much the correlation would move with a different set of counties."
  ],
  "source": "MIT Election Data and Science Lab, 2024 precinct-level presidential returns; county totals summed from the precincts; full counts of votes, not survey estimates, so nothing is weighted except by two-party votes where stated",
  "spec": {
    "colors": {
      "Unweighted": "cat4",
      "Vote-weighted": "cat3"
    },
    "facet": "weighting",
    "group": "weighting",
    "hi": "conf_high",
    "lo": "conf_low",
    "n": "n",
    "reference": 0,
    "referenceLabel": "No correlation",
    "sort": "data",
    "x": "estimate",
    "xDomain": [
      -0.1,
      0.7
    ],
    "xFormat": {
      "digits": 2,
      "signed": true
    },
    "xLabel": "Correlation with the spread of precinct margins",
    "y": "label"
  },
  "subtitle": "Correlation between the spread of precinct margins and the county two-party margin, Democratic positive, across {fact:n_counties_disp} counties, 2024, with 95% intervals",
  "table": {
    "columns": [
      {
        "key": "weighting",
        "label": "Weighting"
      },
      {
        "key": "label",
        "label": "Controls"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "estimate",
        "label": "Correlation"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_low",
        "label": "Interval, low"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 2,
          "signed": true
        },
        "key": "conf_high",
        "label": "Interval, high"
      },
      {
        "format": {
          "digits": 0,
          "thousands": true
        },
        "key": "n",
        "label": "Counties"
      }
    ]
  },
  "title": "Spread rises with Democratic lean, with or without controls for county size and state",
  "type": "dot"
}